How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The

$Page 1: How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The$
How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can ProvideInsight Into Linked Administrative Data

Christopher Wildeman1

Cornell University

September 27, 2018

1The collector of the original data, the funder, the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect, and

Cornell University and their agents or employees bear no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations herein.

My argument

Has two parts

I The first is that the AFCARS and NCANDS data can be usedto show just how common various stages of CPS contact are.

I The second is that doing this presents some problems. Andcross-state data linkages, which we talk about far, far lessthan cross-system linkages, could resolve these problems.

Has two parts



Has two parts



Part one

I make this argument

I Using the AFCARS and NCANDS data.

I And synthetic cohort life tables (which I will explain).

I I use confirmed maltreatment for the example but also presentestimates for investigiations, foster care placement, and TPR.













NCANDS

I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The NCANDS is a

voluntary data collection system that gathers information fromall 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico aboutreports of child abuse and neglect. . .The data are used toexamine trends in child abuse and neglect across the country.”

I Although voluntary, >44 states have reported since 2004.I Used for investigation and confirmed maltreatment estimates.

NCANDS




NCANDS




NCANDS




NCANDS




AFCARS

I Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System.I According to the Children’s Bureau, “The AFCARS data

contain case level information on all children in foster care forwhom State and Tribal title IV-E agencies have responsibilityfor placement, care or supervision and on children adoptedunder the auspices of the State and Tribal title IV-E agency.”

I Reporting is not voluntary. All 50 states since 2000.I Used for foster care placement and termination estimates.

AFCARS




AFCARS




AFCARS




AFCARS




Synthetic cohort (or period) life tables

I Tells us what proportion of a hypothetical cohort of childrenwould ever experience confirmed maltreatment if they weresubjected to any given year’s age-specific first-confirmedmaltreatment rates at each age from birth through age 18.

Synthetic cohort (or period) life tables

I Tells us what proportion of a hypothetical cohort of childrenwould ever experience confirmed maltreatment if they weresubjected to any given year’s age-specific first-confirmedmaltreatment rates at each age from birth through age 18.

Building a synthetic cohort life table

Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Age 10, 2005Age nDx nNx nANx nmx nqx 0cx

123456789

10



1 1,9972 1,0713 1,0014 9575 9246 9377 9058 8369 763

10 713



1 1,997 4,095,5372 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,5372 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,2883 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,4503 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,4503 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,450 .011 .0113 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966



1 1,997 4,095,537 .020 .019 .0192 1,071 4,098,288 4,016,450 .011 .011 .0313 1,001 4,058,3684 957 4,049,9685 924 4,052,5796 937 3,931,2747 905 3,885,4718 836 3,890,5189 763 3,907,974

10 713 3,977,966

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Proportion of Children with Confirmed Maltreatment

Total

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total White

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

●●

●● ●

●●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total WhiteBlack

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●●

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

●●

●● ●

●●

●

●●

●●

● ●●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total WhiteBlackHispanic Origin

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●●

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

●●

●● ●

●●

●

●●

●●

● ●●

● ●●

● ● ●● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsian

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

●●

●

● ●

●●

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

of C

hild

ren

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

005

0.01

0.01

50.

02

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

● ●

● ● ● ● ●

●

●●

●● ●

●●

●

●●

●●

● ●●

● ●●

● ● ●● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total WhiteBlackHispanic OriginAsianNative American

●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age

Age−Specific Risk for First Confirmed Maltreatment, 2005

Total

●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ●●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age


Total White

●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●●

● ●

● ● ●●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●

●●

● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age


Total WhiteBlack

●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●●

● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

●● ● ●

●● ●

●● ● ● ● ●

●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●

●●

● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●●

●● ● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

● ● ●

●

●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age



●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●●

● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

●● ● ●

●● ●

●● ● ● ● ●

●

●

●

● ● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●

●●

● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●●

●● ● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

● ● ●

●

●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●

● ● ● ●●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age



●

●●

●● ●

●●

● ● ●● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

● ●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●●

●●

●●

● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

●● ● ●

●● ●

●● ● ● ● ●

●

●

●

● ● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●●

●

● ●

●● ●

●●

● ●●

●

For Males

Pro

port

ion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

00.

010.

020.

030.

04

●

●●

●●

● ●●

●● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

●

●

●●

● ●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●● ●

●

●●

● ● ●● ● ●

●

●

●

●●

●● ● ● ● ●

● ● ●●

● ● ●

●

●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ● ●

● ● ● ●●

●

●

●

● ●●

●

● ● ●

●● ● ● ●

●●

●

For Females

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Age



●

●●

● ●● ●

●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Cumulative Risk of Confirmed Maltreatment by Demographic Group

Total

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

●

●●

● ●●

● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total White

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●● ●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

●

●●

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year


Total WhiteBlack

●

●●

● ●● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●● ●

●

● ●

●●

●●

●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

●

●●

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ●

●

● ●

●●

● ●●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year



●

●●

● ●● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●● ●

●

● ●

●●

●●

●

●●

●● ● ●

● ●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

●

●●

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ●

●

● ●

●●

● ●●

● ●●

●● ●

●●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year



●

●●

● ●● ●

●

●

●●

● ●●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●● ●

●

● ●

●●

●●

●

●●

●● ● ●

● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

For Males

Cum

ulat

ive

Ris

k

2004 2006 2008 2010

00.

050.

10.

150.

20.

25

●

●●

● ●● ● ●

●

●●

● ●●

● ●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ●

●

● ●

●●

● ●●

● ●●

●● ●

●●

●

●

●

●

●

●

● ●

For Females

2004 2006 2008 2010

Year



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Maltreatment Investigation

Tota

l

Whit

eBlac

k

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Confirmed Maltreatment

Tota

l

Whit

eBlac

k

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Foster Care Placement

Tota

l

Whit

eBlac

k

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Termination of Parental Rights

Tota

l

Whit

eBlac

k

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Maltreatment Investigation

Black

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Confirmed Maltreatment

Black

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Foster Care Placement

Black

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Termination of Parental Rights

Black

Hispan

ic

Asian

Native

Am

erica

n

Ris

k

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Inequality in the Cumulative Prevalence of Child Welfare System Contact

Cumulative Prevalence by Race

Inequality in Risk by Race (Compared to White Children)

Part two

But there’s a problem

I These estimates are (I think slightly) upwardly biased.

I Children have state-specific unique IDs, not national IDs.

I So children could be counted multiple times in different states.













And there’s not a perfect solution

I Birth cohort estimates are (likely slightly) downwardly biased.

I And these issues both exist in state-level data, unfortunately.







Solution one

I Both solutions advocate cross-state administrative datalinkages, which we think about less than cross-system linkages.

I Get data from multiple states.

I Show how much bias not accounting for migration introduces.

I Problem: Harmonizing data, only a marginally better estimate.

Solution one





Solution one





Solution one





Solution one





Solution two

I Could there by a way with the AFCARS/NCANDS?

I Data access isn’t possible now, but would be ideal because itis national in nature and already harmonized across states.

Solution two



Solution two



Thanks so much for your time

Documents

How the AFCARS and NCANDS Can Provide Insight Into Linked Administrative Data · 2020-04-13 · I National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. I According to the Children’s Bureau,\The