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How Proactive and
Predictive Maintenance
Reduce Process Risk
Nina Andgren, Maintenance Engineer and Manager
Upper Occoquan Service Authority
May 12, 2016
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What is process risk & how do you mange it?
• The possibility of suffering harm, loss, or disaster
Natural Disasters
• A situation involving exposure to danger
Man-made
• The effect of uncertainty on objectives
Regulatory
• A probability or threat of damage, or loss that is caused by
external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided
through preemptive action
Equipment Failures
Operating Strategies
System Design
Technologies
Maintenance
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What is Risk Management?
• Consequence
• ProbabilityIdentify• Minimize
• MonitorControlTolerable
Process Risk
The role of
maintenance is to
provide a reliable
plant
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How does maintenance relate to risk?
Consequence of Failure
Probability of Failure
RiskProbability of
Failure
Asset Management Concepts
Identify
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pro
ba
bili
ty o
f F
ailu
re
Consequence of Failure
Focus your
efforts
here
Intolerable
RiskIdentify
PoF = Tolerable Risk/CoF
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What is Risk Management?
• Consequence
• ProbabilityIdentify• Minimize
• MonitorControlTolerable
Process Risk
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Eq
uip
me
nt
Co
nd
itio
n
Time
InstallationPotential
FailurePhysical
Failure
Predictive
Maintenance
Proactive
Maintenance
Control
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Airline 3 - 4% - Naval 2 - 3%
Airline 1 - 2% - Naval 10 - 17%
Airline 4 - 5% - Naval 3 - 17%
Airline 7 - 11% - Naval 6 - 9%
Airline 14-15% - Naval 42-56%
Airline 66-68% - Naval 6-29%
Six Failure Curves
Total 10% 25% Total 90% 75%
Random FailuresAge-Based Failures
Control
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Proactive Maintenance
Specifications
Acceptance Testing
Proper Procedures
Lubrication Program
Proactive
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Specifications
BalancingFastener Torque Vibration
Alignment
Proactive
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Acceptance TestingProactive
Motor Current Signature Analysis
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Procedures
Belt Hog
Shaft Alignment
Proactive
Laser Alignment To grease or not to grease…
Example of good procedures Consequence of lack of procedures
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Lubrication ProgramProactive
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Lubricant Cleanliness Proactive
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Lubricant Storage
Before
After
Proactive
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Predictive Maintenance
What We See
What Caused It
Predictive
ProactiveMaintenance
PredictiveMaintenance
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Eq
uip
me
nt
Co
nd
itio
n
Time
InstallationPotential Failure
Physical Failure
PredictiveMaintenance
Ultrasound
Vibration
Senses
Thermography
Oil Analysis
Predictive
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UltrasoundPredictive
Detecting high-frequency (> 20 kHz) sound waves
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VibrationPredictive
Detecting vibration
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Oil Analysis Predictive
Condition of lubricant and equipment wear
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Thermography
Motor Lighting Panel
Predictive
Visual images of infrared radiance
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Motor Current Signature Analysis
(MCSA)
Predictive
Detecting mechanical and electrical problems in motor-
driven rotating equipment
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Summary
The role of maintenance is to provide a reliable plant by
preventing equipment failures.
Proactive and Predictive Maintenance are ways to manage
failures.
Proactive Maintenance manages the probability of failure.
Predictive Maintenance manages the consequence of a pending
failure.
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Questions?
Nina Andgren, Maintenance Engineer and Manager
Upper Occoquan Service Authority
Phone: 703-227-0259 Email: [email protected]
