HOW IS THE CONSUMER SHOPPING DURING THE COVID-19 … · 4 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery online…

HOW IS THE CONSUMER SHOPPING DURING THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK?Results based on customer surveys

2© Oliver Wyman

SUPERMARKET WITH DOUBLED INTEREST WITHIN LAST 8 WEEKS, ACCORDING TO GOOGLE TRENDS

WORLWIDEGoogle trend Interest over time evolution

50

0

10

60

20

40

30

70

80

90

100

27/02/2020 05/04/2020

3.1x3.6x7.7x

2.2x1.9x

2.6x1.7x

SELECTED COUNTRIESInterest over time increasefactor

1.1x

2.3x

3.3x3.1x

1.4x1.6x

1.3x2.2x

2.8x

Period 127/02 – 23/03

Period 227/02 – 05/04

Period 1 Period 2

1st Wave21-23 April

2nd Wave2-5 April

3© Oliver Wyman

RISING TOPICS RELATED TO SUPERMARKET PROVE THAT CUSTOMERS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR GROCERY SHOPPING AND ADJUSTING THEIR BEHAVIOUR

Rising topics and queries related to supermarket key wordGoogle trends

4© Oliver Wyman

OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF THE SURVEY

• Objective: The purpose of the survey is to understand the impact of COVID-19 on customer shopping behaviour

• Countries: We have selected 7 countries based on their COVID-19 development stage and the population size

• Collected responses: For each country, we have collected between 500 and 1000 responses following google representative sample algorithm

• Survey period:

– Wave I: 21st – 23rd March 2020

– Wave II: 2nd – 5th April 2020

5© Oliver Wyman

QUESTIONS WAVE I

1 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? I am shopping grocery...

2 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? I am spending…

3 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery stores…

4 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery online…

5 Since the outbreak, which of these grocery categories did you purchase MORE than before?

6 Since the outbreak, which of these grocery categories did you purchase LESS than before?

7 Since the outbreak, how would you describe the general changes in your grocery shopping basket? I am buying...

8 Recently, have you changed your shopping behaviour in following non-food categories? I purchase…

9 How are you buying non-food products where the specialist stores have been shut? (E.g. DIY, Apparel, Electronics,...)

10 Recently, have you changed your communication & technology consumption habits? I did or expect to...

6© Oliver Wyman

QUESTIONS WAVE II

1 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your economic situation changed?

2 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping changed ? Overall, I am spending…

3 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? I am shopping grocery...

4 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery store I shop at…

5 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery online… I...

6 Since the outbreak, which of these options describes constraints on your planned grocery purchases you have already witnessed? I purchased less grocery than I had intended to

7 Since the outbreak, how would you describe the general changes in your grocery shopping basket? I am buying...

8 Talking now about non-food, how are you buying non-food products where the specialist stores have been shut? (E.g. Do-it-yourself, Apparel, Electronics,...)

9 How long do you think the COVID-19 crisis will impact your consumption?

10 How do you plan to change your food consumption habits after COVID-19?

7© Oliver Wyman

MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF CONSUMERS HAVE SEEN THEIR HOUSEHOLD INCOME DECREASE – SPAIN BEING THE MOST IMPACTED COUNTRY WITH 58% RESPONDENTS

Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your economic situation changed?% respondents wave 2

47%58%

40% 39%

21%

38% 36%

48%

39%

54% 56%

77%

58% 61%

6% 6% 5% 2%

SwitzerlandItaly

3%

Spain

5%

France Germany USUK

3%My householdincome

has INCREASED

About the same

My householdincome

has DECREASED

Source: Customer survey, Oliver Wyman analysis

Work in progress

8© Oliver Wyman

IN MOST COUNTRIES, THE MAJORITY OF CUSTOMERS CONTINUE DECREASING THEIR STORE VISIT FREQUENCY

Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behavior changed ? I am shopping grocery…% respondents wave 1 and wave 2 survey

7% 7% 6% 8% 9%15%

63%

44%

57%

30%

France W1

19%

Spain W1

73%

Spain W2

32%

62% 61%

France W2

41%

35%

Germany W1

12%

49%

38%

UK W2

40%

50%

Germany W2

58%

10%

50%

22%

Italy W1

15%

UK W1

34%

50%

14%

59%

US W1

17%

26%

Italy W2

13%

30%

Switzerland W2

30%

56%

28%29%

US W2


MORE OFTEN LESS OFTENAbout the same

Work in progress

9© Oliver Wyman

OVERALL SPENDING IS POLARISING TOWARDS “MORE THAN BEFORE”. EXCEPTION ITALY WHICH SHOWS THE ONSET OF A COUNTERTREND

Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? Overall, I am spending…% respondents wave 1 and wave 2 survey

7%

33% 31%

48%

UK W1

30%

13%

24%

42%46%

Italy W2

37%

52%

UK W2

24%

18%

Spain W1

29%

Spain W2

43%

13%

50%

29%

France W1

29%

28%

17%

42%59%77%

Germany W1

US W2

26%

61%

Germany W2

24%16%

Switzerland W2

US W1

60%

23% 23%

52%

25%37%

22%

47%

28%19%

France W2

Italy W1

20%


LESS than before

MOREthan before

About the same as before

Work in progress

10© Oliver Wyman

CONSUMERS ARE GENERALLY BECOMING LESS LOYAL TO THEIR GROCERY STORE, CHANGING TEMPORARY BUT ALSO INCREASINGLY CHANGING “FOR GOOD”

Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behavior changed ? E.g. grocery store I shop at…% respondents wave 1 and wave 2 survey

8%7% 6% 7% 7% 7%

25%

4%

70%

16%

Spain W1

29%

65%

Spain W2

17%24%

3% 5%

73%

France W1

4%

27%

69%

France W2

70%

4%

62%

88%

Germany W1

79%

Germany W2

Italy W2

3%

14%

80%

31%

SwitzerlandW2

62%

25%

UK W1

UK W2

79%

27%

US W1

5%

Italy W1

26%

65%

79%

14%

13%

US W2


I changed FOR GOOD

I changed ONLYTEMPORARILY

I keep going to the same

Work in progress

11© Oliver Wyman

SWITCHING TO ONLINE SHOPPING HAS ALSO INCREASED ACROSS ALL COUNTRIES –ITALY AND SPAIN MORE THAN DOUBLED THEIR ONLINE SHOPPERS

Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behavior changed ? E.g. grocery online… I…% respondents wave 1 and wave 2 survey

5% 6% 3%

8% 7%6%

5%

3% 4% 2%2%

1% 3%2% 5%

6% 7%

11%

69%

US W1

10%

18%

3%

68%

11%

France W2

10%

Italy W2

86%

12%

Italy W1

14%

UK W2

4%

Germany W2

UK W1

23%

61%

16%

SwitzerlandW2

20% 17%

10%

71%

19%

US W2

70% 74%68%

12%

11%

14%17%

85%

Spain W1

68%

Germany W1

84% 82%

France W1

Spain W2

71%

3%

10%

3%

Source: Customer survey, Oliver Wyman analysisOrdered online already before

Switched to onlineFOR GOOD

Switched to onlineONLY TEMPORARILY

Keep going to the physical store

Work in progress

12© Oliver Wyman

ONLINE due to lack of product availability

ONLINE due to lack of delivery slots

IN STORE due to missing products

IN STORE due to lengthy queues

IN STORE due to a lack of comfort / hygiene

ONLINE AND IN-STORE HASSLES: OVERVIEW OF THE BARRIERS WHICH PREVENTED CUSTOMERS TO BUY (EVEN) MORE

Since the outbreak, which of these options describes constraints on your planned grocery purchases you have already witnessed? I purchased less grocery than I had intended to% respondents wave 2


62.7%

57.0%

69.0%

29.0%

23.5%“Lack of money, but I still go

to the same supermarket. Only now I don't have

money to buy like I used to”

“Unable to travel to many

stores due to shelter in place

restrictions” “Nothing has changed in

the way I shop except I just go to one shop rather than

2 or more”

“I don’t know how to do it

online”

Other reasons, please specify:

“I had no access to the website, it was blocked”

Work in progress

13© Oliver Wyman

ONLINE due to lack of product availability

ONLINE due to lack of delivery slots

IN STORE due to missing products

IN STORE due to lengthy queues

IN STORE due to a lack of comfort / hygiene

AT COUNTRY LEVEL, WE SEE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES


56.4%

64.8%

63.1%

47.7%

24.9%

Since the outbreak, which of these options describes constraints on your planned grocery purchases you have already witnessed? I purchased less grocery than I had intended to% respondents wave 2

60.3%

50.0%

48.7%

24.2%

43.9%

65.7%

56.9%

64.2%

25.2%

23.3%

67.1%

72.9%

20.9%

38.2%

16.5%

61.3%

69.1%

75.2%

26.5%

24.0%

49.4%

79.4%

80.0%

28.1%

20.2%

79.6%

80.0%

14.7%

43.5%

24.4%

Work in progress

14© Oliver Wyman

IN MOST COUNTRIES THERE IS A CLEAR TENDENCY TOWARDS MORE DISCOUNT PRODUCTS

Since the outbreak, how would you describe the general changes in your grocery shopping basket? I am buying…% respondents wave 2

23,0%

Italy SwitzerlandSpain France UKGermany US

11,0%

6,4%

44,5%

4,0%

12,7%13,0%

7,0% 7,3%4,4%

8,6% 8,6%

14,3%

6,8%


MORE discount products / basic lines

MORE premium products / special lines

Work in progress

15© Oliver Wyman

BIG PACKAGING SIZES ARE ALSO ON THE RISE


17,8%

24,2%

Italy

19,7%

SwitzerlandSpain

7,6%

USFrance UK

8,9%

Germany

18,1%

4,0%

17,4%

7,7%

5,3% 5,8%

12,6%

9,2%8,2%


MORE big packs

MORE small packs

Work in progress

16© Oliver Wyman

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ITALY AND THE UK, THERE IS A TENDENCY TOWARDS PURCHASING MORE PRIVATE LABEL PRODUCTS


11,8%

SpainItaly

3,1%

7,8%

SwitzerlandFrance Germany UK US

11,0%

12,1%

3,0%

15,0%

8,3%

6,7%

9,8%10,0%

7,3%

5,4%6,2%


MORE private label products

MORE branded products

Work in progress

17© Oliver Wyman

MOREgroceries

LESS clothes, shoes and jewelry

LESS sports and travel goods

LESS furniture and household goods

LESS appliances (toasters, fridge etc.)

LESS beautyproducts

LESS do-it-yourself andgarden

SHOPPERS ARE PURCHASING LESS, THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR CLOTHING AND IN COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE BEEN LONGER UNDER LOCKDOWN

Recently, have you changed your shopping behavior in following categories? I purchase…% respondents wave 1

-27%

-32%

-43%

46%

-34%

-30%

-26%


Work in progress

18© Oliver Wyman


MORE groceries

LESS clothes, shoes and jewelry

LESS sports and travel goods

LESS furniture and household goods

LESS appliances (toasters, fridge etc.)

LESS beautyproducts

LESS do-it-yourselfand garden

SHOPPERS ARE PURCHASING LESS, THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR CLOTHING AND IN COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE BEEN LONGER UNDER LOCKDOWN

-100 0 100

54%

-29%

-33%

-37%

-47%

-30%

-25%

100-100 0

-36%

-37%

-53%

42%

-38%

-33%

-33%

0-100 100

-36%

-40%

45%

-49%

-39%

-32%

-37%

100-100 0

-23%

-26%

-28%

52%

-34%

-15%

-21%

-100 1000

-25%

-38%

11%

-29%

-27%

-24%

-19%

-100 0 100

-38%

-30%

-33%

72%

-30%

-26%

-20%

Recently, have you changed your shopping behavior in following categories? I purchase…% respondents wave 1

Work in progress

19© Oliver Wyman

NON-FOOD CATEGORIES: ONLINE RETAILERS ARE THE ALTERNATIVE IN ALL MARKETS WHEN SPECIALIST STORES ARE CLOSED

How are you buying non-food products where the specialist stores have been shut? (E.g. DIY , Apparel, Electronics,...) % respondents wave 2

62% 64%

45%

63%71% 73%

61%

38% 36%

55%

37%29% 27%

39%

UKItaly Spain GermanyFrance Switzerland US

Online

Offline


Work in progress

20© Oliver Wyman

NON-FOOD CATEGORIES: BIG ONLINE SHOPS SUCH AS AMAZON ARE THE MOST PREVALENT CHANNEL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRANCE, WHICH RELIES ON HYPERS

How are you buying non-food products where the specialist stores have been shut? (E.g. DIY , Apparel, Electronics,...) % respondents wave 2

10% 6% 7% 8% 10% 9%

16%18% 20% 16%

29% 20%13%

37% 40%

20%

39%

34% 43%

38%

18%

30%

34%

10%

18% 17%

23%

20%

6%

21% 26%

12% 10%16%

USItaly Spain France

5%

SwitzerlandGermany UK

Specialists I needare still open

Large supermarkets/hypermarkets

Big online shops I already knew (Eg. Amazon)

Online specialist I already knew

Online shops I discovered


Work in progress

21© Oliver Wyman

LENGTH OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS: SWISS MOST OPTIMISTIC, ITALIANS MOST PESSIMISTIC. UP TO 40% IN ITALY THINK IT WILL LAST MORE THAN 6 MONTHS

How long do you think the COVID-19 crisis will impact your consumption? % respondents wave 2

26%20%

12% 14%5%

14% 12%

14%

11%

11%17%

8%

20%17%

16%

11%17%

19%

13%

27%

21%

25%

33% 37%28%

37%

32%

33%

19%26% 22% 22%

37%

8%17%

More than 12 months

GermanyItaly UKSpain USFrance Switzerland

1-2 months

3-4 months

More than 6 months

5-6 months


Work in progress

22© Oliver Wyman

Cook more at home

More ready-to-eat food at home

Eat more healthy food /vitamins /supplements

Buy more food local products

CONSUMERS PLAN TO COOK MORE AT HOME AND BUY LOCALLY SOURCED PRODUCTS

How do you plan to change your food consumption habits after COVID-19?% respondents wave 2


38.2%

6.5%

20.8%

40.4%

Work in progress

INFOGRAPHIC BY COUNTRY

24© Oliver Wyman

2 ITALY GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020

Store visits Product shiftOverall grocery spend

Grocery store

Changed for good

13%Changed

temporarily

25%

56%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morebig packs

24%Buy morediscount products

23%28%30%

Spend more

Economic impact

Spend lessDecrease of

income

47%Consumption impacted > 6

months

40%

Online channels constraints

Lack of delivery slots

50%Lack of product

availability

60%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

36%Buy more

local products

32%

Online channel

Switch for good

11%Switch

temporarily

12%

Store sales constraints

Lengthy queues

44%Missing

products

49%

25© Oliver Wyman

2 SPAIN GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

6%Changed

temporarily

29%

73%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morediscount products

45%Buy morebig packs

18%24%29%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

31%



65%Lack of product

availability

56%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

41%Buy more

local products

46%

Online channel

Switch for good

4%Switch

temporarily

6%


Lengthy queues

48%Missing

products

63%

26© Oliver Wyman

2 FRANCE GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

4%Changed

temporarily

27%

61%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morebig packs

17%Buy more

private label products

15%28%29%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

23%



57%Lack of product

availability

66%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

32%Buy more

local products

54%

Online channel

Switch for good

3%Switch

temporarily

11%


Lengthy queues

23%Missing

products

64%

27© Oliver Wyman

2 GERMANY GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

7%Changed

temporarily

14%

50%Less frequent

store visits

Buy moreprivate label

products


11%13%26%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

31%



38%Lack of product

availability

67%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

32%Buy more

local products

38%

Online channel

Switch for good

2%Switch

temporarily

4%


Lengthy queues

16%Missing

products

73%

28© Oliver Wyman

2 SWITZERLAND GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

3%Changed

temporarily

17%

50%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morebig packs


13%16%25%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

13%



69%Lack of product

availability

61%

Online channel

Switch for good

1%Switch

temporarily

8%


Lengthy queues

26%Missing

products

75%

29© Oliver Wyman

2 UK GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

7%Changed

temporarily

31%

59%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morebig packs

13%Buy morebranded products

10%23%31%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

34%



79%Lack of product

availability

49%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

42%Buy more

local products

36%

Online channel

Switch for good

3%Switch

temporarily

10%


Lengthy queues

28%Missing

products

80%

30© Oliver Wyman

2 USA GROCERY SHOPPING DEEP-DIVE % respondents – Responses collected 2nd – 5th April , 2020


Grocery store

Changed for good

7%Changed

temporarily

14%

58%Less frequent

store visits

Buy morebig packs


14%22%37%

Spend more

Economic impact


income


months

28%



44%Lack of product

availability

80%

Change in habits

Cook moreat home

53%Buy more

local products

23%

Online channel

Switch for good

5%Switch

temporarily

10%


Lengthy queues

15%Missing

products

80%

Documents

HOW IS THE CONSUMER SHOPPING DURING THE COVID-19 … · 4 Given the challenges caused by the Coronavirus, how has your grocery shopping behaviour changed ? E.g. grocery online…