28
 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr _jrnjs Mkw Cgr Og` Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` Lk; ^u ^k`lfn`l @k. 637 Cjdrugry 4876 Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutj

How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 1/28

 

GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr _jrnjs

Mkw Cgr Og` Tj`in`dn

N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` Lk;

^u ^k`lfn`l

@k. 637Cjdrugry 4876 

Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutj

Page 2: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 2/28

 

Vmj \kren`l Xgpjr sjrnjs ns g ok`tn`ugtnk` kc tmj ckrijray `gijf Fnsoussnk` Xgpjr sjrnjs5tmj `uidjrn`l kc tmj pgpjrs ok`tn`ujf wntmkut n`tjrruptnk` kr omg`lj. GFDN„s wkren`lpgpjrs rjcajot n`ntnga nfjgs k` g tkpno g`f grj pkstjf k`an`j ckr fnsoussnk`. GFDN j`okurgljsrjgfjrs tk pkst tmjnr okiij`ts k` tmj ign` pglj ckr jgom wkren`l pgpjr (lnvj` n` tmjontgtnk` djakw). _kij wkren`l pgpjrs igy fjvjakp n`tk ktmjr ckris kc pudanogtnk`.

_ulljstjf ontgtnk`2

^u, ^k`lfn`l. 4876. Mkw Cgr Og` Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` Lk; GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr637. Vkeyk2 Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutj. Gvgnagdaj2 mttp2//www.gfdn.krl/wkren`l-pgpjr/4876/84/7?/37?3.mkw.cgr.og`.rj`in`dn.n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.lk/

Xajgsj ok`tgot tmj gutmkr ckr n`ckrigtnk` gdkut tmns pgpjr.

Jigna2 yuyk`lfn`lH743.oki

^u ^k`lfn`l ns g` gogfjinong` g`f sj`nkr cjaakw gt tmj N`stntutj kc \kraf Jok`kinos g`fXkantnos, Omn`jsj Gogfjiy kc _konga _onj`ojs.

Vmj vnjws jxprjssjf n` tmns pgpjr grj tmj vnjws kc tmj gutmkr g`f fk `kt `jojssgrnay

rjcajot tmj vnjws kr pkanonjs kc GFDN, tmj GFD, nts Dkgrf kc Fnrjotkrs, kr tmj lkvjr`ij`tstmjy rjprjsj`t. GFDN fkjs `kt lugrg`tjj tmj goourgoy kc tmj fgtg n`oaufjf n` tmns pgpjrg`f goojpts `k rjspk`sndnanty ckr g`y ok`sjquj`ojs kc tmjnr usj. Vjrin`kakly usjf igy`kt `jojssgrnay dj ok`snstj`t wntm GFD kccnonga tjris.

 Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutjEgsuinlgsjen Dunafn`l =C

?-4-: Egsuinlgsjen, Omnykfg-euVkeyk 788-388=, Bgpg`

Vja2 +=7-?-?:>?-::88Cgx2 +=7-?-?:>?-::<7ZTA2 www.gfdn.krlJ-igna2 n`ckHgfdn.krl

© 4876 Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutj

Page 3: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 3/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u 

Gdstrgot

_n`oj tmj ckriga agu`om kc tmj rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t somjij n` 488>, rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` mgs igfj niprjssnvj n`rkgfs. Vmj prklrjss n` rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`tns jspjongaay niprjssnvj. Mkwjvjr, Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g„s kccsmkrj rj`in`dn fjpksnts cgnajf tk

igej snl`ncnog`t prklrjss gs jxpjotjf. Vmj qujstnk` kc mkw cgr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`og` lk mgs djokij g okiik` ok`ojr` n` tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga cn`g`onga okiiu`nty.Vmns pgpjr grlujs tmgt wmnaj g ok`trndutn`l cgotkr ns tmj smjjr snzj kc tmj Xjkpaj„s Tjpudanokc Omn`g„s (XTO) trgfj g`f tmj ok`vj`nj`oj kc usn`l tmj rj`in`dn ckr trg`sgotnk`sjttajij`ts, jxomg`lj rgtj grdntrglj g`f n`tjrjst rgtj grdntrglj igttjr gask. Xrkcnts crkigrdntrgljs grj tmj igbkr frnvn`l ckrojs kc, dut fk `kt ok`stntutj g sustgn`gdaj dgsns ckr,n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

 G cu`fgij`tga ok`strgn`t ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tmj XTO„s ogpntga ok`trkas.Djckrj cuaay kpj`n`l up nts ogpntga gooku`t g`f igen`l tmj rj`in`dn crjjay ok`vjrtndaj,mkwjvjr, tmj XTO `jjfs cnrst tk put nts kw` mkusj n` krfjr. Igorkjok`kino stgdnanty mgs tkdj gomnjvjf5 tmj mnlm rgtnk kc cn`g`onga ajvjrglj smkuaf dj rjfuojf5 g rgtnk`ga g`f cajxndaj

n`tjrjst rgtj struoturj iust dj orjgtjf5 g`f rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty gorkss n`fustrnjssmkuaf dj jstgdansmjf. Ikst nipkrtg`tay, tmj XTO iust igej tmj rj`in`dn jxomg`lj rgtjcajxndaj tk rjcajot fjig`f ckr g`f suppay kc ckrjnl` jxomg`lj n` tmj igrejt.

Vmj rj`in`dn og` g`f wnaa djokij g igbkr n`tjr`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy jvj`tugaay, dut tmj rkgf tkn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns dku`f tk dj ak`l g`f duipy.

BJA Oagssncnogtnk`2 C?7, C?? 

Page 4: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 4/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u 

Ok`tj`ts

7.  N`trkfuotnk` ................................................................................................................ ? 4.  \my g`f Mkw Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` \gs Drkulmt n`tk tmj Xkanoy Glj`fg .... ? 

4.7  Vmj Lakdga Cn`g`onga Ornsns g`f Fjonsnk` tk N`tjr`gtnk`ganzj tmj Tj`in`dn .... ? ?.  Mkw Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` Mgs Djj` Xursujf .............................................. = 

?.7  Tkgf Igp kc Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` .................................................... = ?.4  Xrklrjss n` Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ...................................................... > 

6.  Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g`f Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk` ............................ 74 6.7  Vmj Nipgot kc Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` k` Ogpntga Ok`trkas ................. 74  6.4   G @jw _tglj kc Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk` ............................................ 7? 6.?   G Fnlrjssnk`2 Antjrgturj k` Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk` ........................... 76 6.6  Xrjrjqunsntjs ckr Cuaa Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk` ..................................... 73 

:.  Vmj Xrkspjots kc Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ....................................................... 7< :.7  Fnccjrj`t Tkutjs tk Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`......................................... 7< :.4  Vmj Xrkspjot ckr Zsj kc Tj`in`dn gs g Vrgfj _jttajij`t Ourrj`oy ............ 7= :.?  Vmj Xrkspjot ckr Zsj kc Tj`in`dn gs g _tkrj kc Sgauj ................................ 7> :.6  Inorkjok`kino Cku`fgtnk` ckr Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ...................... 47 

3.  Ok`oausnk` ............................................................................................................... 4? Tjcjrj`ojs ......................................................................................................................... 4: 

Page 5: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 5/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

?

7. N@VTKFZOVNK@

Kvjr tmj pgst 6 yjgrs sn`oj tmj agu`om kc tmj rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t somjij,rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` mgs igfj niprjssnvj n`rkgfs. N` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g, g

rj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejt mgs djj` jstgdansmjf. N`tjr`gtnk`ga n`vjstkrs mgvj dj`jcntjflrjgtay crki tmj rj`in`dn dusn`jss n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Okvjtn`l tmj lgn`s, ig`yjok`kinjs grj tryn`l tk ckaakw sunt. Tj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts n` _n`lgpkrj,Vgnpjn,Omn`g, g`f skij Jurkpjg` oku`trnjs mgvj djlu` tk tgej smgpj. Mkwjvjr, gaa ns`kt wjaa wntm rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. \mnaj tmj prklrjss n` rj`in`dn trgfjsjttajij`t mgs ikrj kr ajss ijt igrejt jxpjotgtnk`s, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs gstkrj kc vgauj mgs djj` agoeaustjr n` rjoj`t yjgrs, gctjr tmj n`ntnga frgigtno n`orjgsj n`tmj rj`in`dn fjpksnts mjaf dy `k`rjsnfj`ts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Vmj qujstnk` kc mkwcgr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` og` lk mgs djokij g okiik` ok`ojr` n` tmjn`tjr`gtnk`ga cn`g`onga okiiu`nty.

Vmns pgpjr gttjipts tk nfj`tncy tmj cgotkrs tmgt grj djmn`f tmj jvkautnk` kc rj`in`dn

n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g`f jxpagn` wmy g ojrtgn` pgttjr` n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`mgs jijrljf furn`l tmj jvkautnk`. Nt grlujs tmgt fjspntj tmj niprjssnvj prklrjss n`rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, fuj tk tmj omg`ljs n` tmj fkijstno ok`fntnk`s n` tmjXjkpaj„s Tjpudano kc Omn`g (XTO) g`f tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga j`vnrk`ij`t, tmj spjjf kc tmjn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns anejay tk sakw n` tmj `jgr cuturj.

 G` nipkrtg`t pkn`t tmj pgpjr igejs ns tmgt tmj XTO smkuaf ign`tgn` nts lrgfuganstgpprkgom tkwgrf ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`, jvj` tmkulm tmj goojajrgtnk` kc ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk` igy lnvj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g lrjgt dkkst.

Vmj `jxt sjotnk` fnsoussjs tmj jvkautnk` kc tmj iktnvgtnk`s kc tmj XTO ik`jtgrygutmkrnty ckr prkiktn`l rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Vmj tmnrf sjotnk` fnsoussjs tmjprkdajis kc g`f prklrjss n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` igfj wntm tmj rkgf igp. Vmj

ckurtm sjotnk` fjgas wntm tmj rjagtnk`smnp djtwjj` ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` g`frj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Vmj cnctm sjotnk` jxpakrjs fnccjrj`t prkspjots ckr rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` gookrfn`l tk fnccjrj`t rkgf igps. G`f tmj cn`ga sjotnk` prjsj`tsok`oaufn`l rjigres.

4. \M^ G@F MK\ TJ@IN@DNN@VJT@GVNK@GANRGVNK@ \G_ DTKZLMV N@VK VMJXKANO^ GLJ@FG

4.7 Vmj Lakdga Cn`g`onga Ornsns g`f Fjonsnk` tk N`tjr`gtnk`ganzj

tmj Tj`in`dn

Vmjrj ns `k ktmjr oku`try jxojpt tmj XTO tmgt mgs jvjr igfj tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kctmjnr kw` `gtnk`ga ourrj`oy g `gtnk`ga pkanoy. Vgen`l n`tk ok`snfjrgtnk` tmj cgot tmgt tmjLkvjr`ij`t kc Bgpg` n`ntngaay agu`omjf tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kc tmj yj` k`ayrjauotg`tay, ynjafn`l tk tmj prjssurj crki tmj Z`ntjf _tgtjs (Vgegln 488>), tmj XTO nstmj k`ay oku`try tmgt mgs trnjf tk n`tjr`gtnk`ganzj nts kw` ourrj`oy k` nts kw` n`ntngtnvj. Ntdjls tmj qujstnk` gs tk wmy tmj XTO fjonfjf tk pusm rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`rgtmjr suffj`ay n` tmj djln``n`l kc tmj sjok`f qugrtjr kc 488>.

N` tmj 7>>8s, tmj Lkvjr`ij`t kc tmj XTO igfj tmj n`tjlrgtnk` kc tmj oku`try„sjok`kiy wntm tmj lakdga jok`kiy g `gtnk`ga pkanoy. Vmj n`tjlrgtnk` mgs twk nipkrtg`t

fnij`snk`s. Vmj cnrst ns tk pgrtnonpgtj cuaay n` tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga fnvnsnk` kc agdkr. Vmj

Page 6: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 6/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

6

j`try n`tk tmj \kraf Vrgfj Krlg`nzgtnk` (\VK) ns g ag`figre ckr tmns fnij`snk`. Vmjsjok`f ns tk pgrtnonpgtj cuaay n` tmj lakdga cn`g`onga systji. N` 7>>6, tmj rj`in`dn wgsfjvgaujf g`f g ig`gljf cakgtn`l systji wgs n`trkfuojf. Vmj XTO andjrganzjf ntsourrj`t gooku`t dy goojptn`l Grtnoaj SNNN kc tmj N`tjr`gtnk`ga Ik`jtgry Cu`f (NIC) n`7>>3 g`f sjt g rkgf igp ckr ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` gt rkulmay tmj sgij tnij. Ntwgs jxpjotjf tmgt, n` g cjw yjgrs„ tnij, tmj ogpntga gooku`t wkuaf dj cuaay andjrganzjfg`f tmj rj`in`dn cuaay ok`vjrtndaj. Mkwjvjr, tmj Gsng` cn`g`onga ornsns drkulmt tmjprkojss kc ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` tk g` gdrupt stkp. Furn`l tmj ornsns, tmjrj`in`dn wgs rjpjlljf tk tmj Z`ntjf _tgtjs (Z_) fkaagr g`f ogpntga ok`trka wgstnlmtj`jf. Vmj pjl tk tmj Z_ fkaagr g`f ogpntga ok`trka mjapjf tmj XTO wjgtmjr tmjstkri kc tmj Gsng` cn`g`onga ornsns. N` 4887, tmj XTO ogij kut kc tmj ornsns u`sogtmjf.

N` tmj 4888s, tmj ign`tj`g`oj kc g` g``uga lrkwtm rgtj mnlmjr tmg` =% djogij tmjsn`laj ikst nipkrtg`t pkanoy kdbjotnvj ckr tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t. Vmns lrkwtm rgtj wgsrjlgrfjf gs n`fnspj`sgdaj ckr tmj orjgtnk` kc = inaank`‟78 inaank` bkds jgom yjgr`jjfjf tk gdskrd tmj `jway n`orjgsjf wkren`l-glj pkpuagtnk`. Vk ign`tgn` gokipjtntnvj jxomg`lj rgtj ckr prkiktn`l jxpkrts wgs g ejy ik`jtgry pkanoy kdbjotnvj.

Cgojf wntm strk`l gpprjongtnk` prjssurj k` tmj rj`in`dn, wmnom n` tur` wgs orjgtjf dyagrlj ourrj`t g`f ogpntga gooku`t surpausjs, tmj XTO ik`jtgry gutmkrnty gfkptjf gpkanoy kc tnlmt ok`trkas kvjr ogpntga n`cakws dut akksj ok`trkas kvjr ogpntga kutcakws.Mkwjvjr, djogusj kc tmj strk`l rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s, mkt ik`jy cakwjfn` u`gdgtjfay g`f igfj tmj rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` prjssurj jvj` strk`ljr. N`rjspk`sj, tmj Xjkpaj„s Dg`e kc Omn`g (XDKO) n`tjrvj`jf n` tmj ckrjnl` jxomg`ljigrejt jxtj`snvjay, wmnom n` tur` ajf tk rgpnf goouiuagtnk` kc ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs. Vmj XTO„s ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs seyrkoejtjf crki gdkut Z_$:88dnaank` n` 488? tk ikrj tmg` Z_$4 trnaank` djckrj tmj k`sjt kc tmj lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns.

Vmj lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns mnt tmj lakdga jok`kiy dgfay g`f tmj XTO wgs `kt g`jxojptnk`. Fjspntj XTO cn`g`onga n`stntutnk`s„ jxpksurj tk tmj cn`g`onga fjrnvgtnvjs

krnln`gtn`l n` tmj Z_ g`f fnrjot akssjs ogusjf dy tmj cgaa n` tmj prnojs kc gssjts suom gsikrtlglj-dgoejf sjourntnjs (ID_) g`f okaagtjrganzjf fjdt kdanlgtnk`s (OFK) djn`lanintjf, tmj XTO wgs k` tmj drn`e kc igssnvj ogpntga akssjs k` nts ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs, jspjongaay k` nts Z_ lkvjr`ij`t-spk`skrjf j`tjrprnsj (L_J) dk`fs.

Vmj cgot tmgt tmj XTO mgf cgaaj` n`tk g fkaagr trgp ijg`t tmgt tmj XTO mgf tk sgtnscywntm akw rjtur`s k` nts ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs g`f djgr agrlj ogpntga akssjs. N`488=‟488>, tmj XTO„s dnlljr wkrry wgs ogpntga akssjs djogusj kc fjcguat, fkaagrfjvgaugtnk`, g`f n`cagtnk`. \mj` tmj Cjfjrga @gtnk`ga Ikrtlglj Gsskongtnk` (Cg``njIgj) g`f tmj Cjfjrga Mkij Akg` Ikrtlglj Okrpkrgtnk` (Crjffnj Igo) wjrj k` tmjdrn`e kc dg`eruptoy, skij kccnongas wntmn` tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t wjrj jxtrjijayok`ojr`jf. Gt tmj tnij, tmj XTO mjaf ikrj tmg` $688 dnaank` n` L_J dk`fs. K`ay wmj`

tmj twk L_Js wjrj pagojf n`tk ok`sjrvgtkrsmnp k` 3 _jptjidjr 488= wjrj tmksjkccnongas gdaj tk g drjgtmj g snlm kc rjanjc.

Vmj Cjfjrga Tjsjrvj„s qug`tntgtnvj jgsn`l gookipg`njf dy tmj Vrjgsury„s n`tjrvj`tnk`suoojjfjf n` stgdnanzn`l tmj Z_ cn`g`onga igrejt. Vmj XTO djogij ajss ok`ojr`jfgdkut g fjcguat k` tmj Z_ L_J dk`fs. \ntm rgpnf jxpg`snk` kc tmj Cjfjrga Tjsjrvj„sdgag`oj smjjt, mkwjvjr, tmj XTO mgf tk wkrry gdkut tmj fjvgaugtnk` kc tmj Z_ fkaagrg`f n`cagtnk` n` tmj cuturj, gaa kc wmnom n`jvntgday wkuaf ajgf tk snl`ncnog`t ogpntga akssjsk` tmj XTO„s ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs.

K` 7? Igrom 488>, gt g `jws ok`cjrj`oj ckr tmj g``uga ijjtn`l kc tmj @gtnk`gaXjkpaj„s Ok`lrjss, vjry u`usugaay, tmj` Xrjinjr \j` Bngdgk ckr tmj cnrst tnijjxprjssjf pudanoay mns wkrrnjs gdkut tmj sgcjty kc XTO gssjts n` tmj Z_. Mj sgnf, ‑\j

Page 7: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 7/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

:

aj`t suom UgY mulj cu`f tk tmj Z`ntjf _tgtjs g`f kc okursj wj„rj ok`ojr`jf ... tk spjgetrutmcuaay, N gi g anttaj dnt wkrrnjf’ ( ]n`mug 488>).

\mgt wgs tmj XTO suppksjf tk fk; Vmj ikst kdvnkus g`swjr wgs tk fnvjrsncy gwgycrki Z_ lkvjr`ij`t sjourntnjs. Ojrtgn`ay, tmj XTO mgs fk`j skijtmn`l k` nt.

Mkwjvjr, gs pkn`tjf kut dy Erulig` (488>), ‑UVmj Xjkpaj„s Tjpudano kcY Omn`g `kwkw`s sk ig`y fkaagrs tmgt nt og`„t sjaa tmji kcc wntmkut frnvn`l tmj fkaagr fkw` g`ftrnlljrn`l tmj vjry ogpntga akss nts ajgfjrs cjgr.’ Vmgt ns tk sgy `ktmn`l kc tmj cgot tmgttmj XTO mgs ok`tn`ukusay gffjf `jw ckrjnl` jxomg`ljs tk nts rjsjrvjs gt g fgzzan`lspjjf.

K` 4? Igrom 488>, 78 fgys gctjr Xrjinjr \j`„s okiij`ts, XDKO Lkvjr`kr Rmku]ngkomug` pudansmjf g` jssgy, n` wmnom mj rgnsjf tmj qujstnk` kc ‑wmgt en`f kcn`tjr`gtnk`ga rjsjrvj ourrj`oy fk wj `jjf tk sjourj lakdga cn`g`onga stgdnanty g`fcgonantgtj wkraf jok`kino lrkwtm’ (Rmku 488>). Mj pkn`tjf kut tmgt tmj lkga kc tmjrjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji wgs ‑tk orjgtj g` n`tjr`gtnk`ga rjsjrvjourrj`oy tmgt ns fnsok``jotjf crki n`fnvnfuga `gtnk`s g`f ns gdaj tk rjign` stgdaj n` tmj

ak`l ru`, tmus rjikvn`l tmj n`mjrj`t fjcnonj`onjs ogusjf dy usn`l orjfnt-dgsjf `gtnk`gaourrj`onjs.’ Rmku jxprjssjf tmj wnsm tk orjgtj suom g suprg`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy k` tmjdgsns kc spjonga frgwn`l rnlmts (_FT). Gookrfn`l tk Rmku, ‑tmj rkaj kc tmj _FT mgs `ktdjj` put n`tk cuaa pagy fuj tk anintgtnk`s k` nts gaakogtnk` g`f tmj sokpj kc nts usjs.’ Mjsulljstjf tmgt tmj NIC g`f oku`trnjs ok`ojr`jf smkuaf ‑gotnvjay prkiktj tmj usj kctmj _FT n` n`tjr`gtnk`ga trgfj, okiikfntnjs prnon`l, n`vjstij`t g`f okrpkrgtj dkke-ejjpn`l’ g`f ‑(o)rjgtj cn`g`onga gssjts fj`kin`gtjf n` tmj _FT tk n`orjgsj nts gppjga.’Rmku„s prkpksga ns g` gttjipt tk fjprnvj tmj Z_ fkaagr kc nts ‑jxkrdntg`t prnvnajlj,’wmnom ns g fjsnrj smgrjf dy ig`y oku`trnjs n` tmj wkraf. Gs g cnrst stjp, Rmku mkpjftmgt g wnfjr usj kc tmj _FT gs g u`nt kc gooku`t, ijg`s kc jxomg`lj, g`f stkrj kcvgauj wnaa mjap tmj XTO rjfuoj tmj rnses nts Z_ fkaagr-fj`kin`gtjf ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs grj cgon`l.

Mkwjvjr, tmj ogaa ckr tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji wj`t `kwmjrj.K` 46 Igrom 488>, Z_ Xrjsnfj`t Dgrgoe Kdgig fnsinssjf Lkvjr`kr Rmku„s prkpksgady sgyn`l tmgt tmjrj wgs `k `jjf ckr g wkraf ourrj`oy g`f tmj Z_ fkaagr wgs vjrystrk`l gt tmj ourrj`t tnij. _urprnsn`lay, jvj` tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t cgnajf tk trjgt tmjnfjg kc tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji sjrnkusay. G cjw fgys gctjrLkvjr`kr Rmku„s jssgy wgs pudansmjf, g spkejsig` kc tmj In`nstry kc Ckrjnl` Gccgnrsfnstg`ojf tmj lkvjr`ij`t crki mns prkpksga dy sgyn`l tmgt tmj prkpksga ckr gsuprg`gtnk`ga rjsjrvj ourrj`oy wgs `k ikrj tmg` g pjrsk`ga nfjg.

\mgt gdkut tmj strj`ltmj`n`l kc tmj rjlnk`ga cn`g`onga okkpjrgtnk`; Dy pkkan`l tkljtmjrn`fnvnfuga oku`trnjs„ ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs, tmj Omng`l Ign N`ntngtnvj (OIN), g`jtwkre kc iuatnagtjrga ourrj`oy swgp glrjjij`ts, smkuaf j`gdaj oku`trnjs n` Jgst

 Gsng tk rjfuoj tmj giku`t kc ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs tmjy mgf tk mkaf n`fnvnfugaayckr tmj fjcj`sj kc tmjnr kw` ourrj`onjs. Vmkulm tmj OIN mgs lnvj` tmj XTO g` kutajt tkfnvjrsncy nts ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs, tmj OIN okuaf `kt mjap tmj XTO vjry iuom tkfnvjrsncy nts ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs. Fjspntj gaa tmj jcckrts, tmj OIN rjsoujijomg`nsi wgs `jvjr trnlljrjf furn`l tmj sudprnij ornsns. Nfjgaay, k` tmj dgsns kc tmjOIN, Jgst Gsng` oku`trnjs okuaf ikvj tkwgrf tmj orjgtnk` kc g rjlnk`ga ik`jtgry u`nk`g`f g rjlnk`ga ourrj`oy. Mkwjvjr, tmj ok`canots kc n`tjrjsts gik`l Jgst Gsng`oku`trnjs igej tmns nfjg akke u`rjganstno. Gctjr tmj jurk ornsns, tmj nfjg kc g rjlnk`gaourrj`oy ns gaa dut ckrlkttj`. Vmjrj mgs `kt djj` iuom tgae gdkut rjlnk`ga cn`g`ongaokkpjrgtnk` n` tmj XTO furn`l g`f gctjr tmj lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns.

Djckrj 488>, tmjrj wjrj k`ay skij spkrgfno fnsoussnk`s k` rj`in`dn

n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. K` > Igrom 488=, tmj` _j`nkr Fjputy Lkvjr`kr kc tmj XDKO, \u

Page 8: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 8/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

3

]ngkan`l, sgnf tmgt ok`fntnk`s ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wjrj `kt igturj g`f ntwgs `kt k` tmj glj`fg yjt, tmkulm smj tmkulmt tmgt tmj  nssuj kc orjgtn`l g` kccsmkrjcn`g`onga oj`tjr n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g smkuaf dj stufnjf.7 K` 7< _jptjidjr 488=, \upkn`tjf kut tmgt tk igej tmj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ga, twk ok`fntnk`s iust dj ijt2 cnrst,cuaa ok`vjrtndnanty kc tmj rj`in`dn5 g`f sjok`f, tmj wnftm g`f fjptm kc tmj rj`in`dncn`g`onga igrejt mgs djj` igfj okipgrgdaj wntm tmksj kc tmj Z_ fkaagr cn`g`ongaigrejt.4

N`tjrjst n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` surljf rgtmjr suffj`ay n` 488>. Vmj ogusjs kctmj rnsn`l n`tjrjst n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` og` dj suiigrnzjf gs ckaakws. Cnrst,tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji wgs vjry fnccnouat wntmkut tmj suppkrt kctmj Z_ lkvjr`ij`t. Cjw n`fustrnganzjf oku`trnjs wjrj rjgaay sjrnkus gdkut rjpagon`ltmj Z_ fkaagr wntm tmj _FT. Gt tmj sgij tnij, tmj XTO ajgfjrsmnp mgf `k stkigom tkomgaaj`lj tmj suprjigoy kc tmj Z_ fkaagr. Vmns pjrmgps ns tmj rjgsk` wmy Lkvjr`krRmku„s prkpksga ckr g ‑suprg`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy’ wgs fnsinssjf gs ‑pjrsk`ga’ dy ktmjrOmn`jsj kccnongas. Gt tmj tnij, tmj ig`trg kc tmj XTO ajgfjrsmnp wgs `kt ‑rkoen`l tmjdkgt.’ Curtmjrikrj, tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji ns `kt k`ay g`nipkrtg`t pkantnoga g`f jok`kino nssuj dut gask g tjom`nogaay okipanogtjf k`j. XTOtjom`korgts wjrj `kt skpmnstnogtjf j`kulm tk mg`faj gaa tmj okipanogtnk`s kc tmns nssujyjt. Mj`oj, gctjr mgvn`l ogusjf g stnr, tmj XTO fnsj`lgljf qunoeay g`f ajct oku`trnjssuom gs tmj Tussng` Cjfjrgtnk` g`f Crg`oj tk tgae gdkut tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`gaik`jtgry systji. N` tmj XTO, pjkpaj stgrtjf gsen`l tmj qujstnk`2 Nc tmj rjlnk`gacn`g`onga okkpjrgtnk` ns lkn`l `kwmjrj g`f tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga okiiu`nty mgs `kt yjtigfj up nts in`f k` tmj usj kc tmj _FT gs g u`nt kc gooku`t, ijg`s kc jxomg`lj, g`f

stkrj kc vgauj n` pagoj kc tmj Z_ fkaagr, wmy og` tmj XTO `kt usj nts kw` ourrj`oy tkcuacnaa tmjsj cu`otnk`s; Okipgrjf wntm tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systjig`f tmj prkiktnk` kc tmj usj kc tmj _FT, rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wkuaf gaakw tmjXTO tk pursuj nts pkanoy kdbjotnvjs k` nts kw` n`ntngtnvj wntmkut wgntn`l ckr kutsnfjrs„ok`sj`t.

N` Fjojidjr 488=, skij jok`kinsts fnsoussjf tmj pkssndnanty kc nssug`oj kcXg`fg dk`fs (dk`fs fj`kin`gtjf n` rj`in`dn) dy `k`rjsnfj`ts (^u 488=). Vmjanqunfnty smkrtglj ogusjf dy tmj cgnaurj kc Ajmig` Drktmjrs lgvj tmj rj`in`dn g`kppkrtu`nty tk pagy g rkaj n` gaajvngtn`l tmj lakdga anqunfnty smkrtglj. N` cgot, gctjr tmjokaagpsj kc Ajmig` Drktmjrs, tmj Tjpudano kc Ekrjg succjrjf g` goutj anqunfntysmkrtglj. Nt skulmt mjap crki tmj XTO, wmnom snttn`l k` g mulj pnaj kc ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs ojrtgn`ay okuaf. Mkwjvjr, tmjrj wjrj wkrrnjs n` tmj XTO gdkut pkssndaj fkaagrfjvgaugtnk`, wmnom wkuaf ogusj akssjs tk tmj XTO k` nts fkaagr-fj`kin`gtjf akg`s.@jvjrtmjajss, tmj XTO okuaf aj`f rj`in`dn tk tmj Tjpudano kc Ekrjg dy puromgsn`lXg`fg dk`fs nssujf dy Ekrjg`s, wmk n` tur` okuaf usj tmj dkrrkwjf rj`in`dn tk duy

fkaagrs crki tmj XTO. Dy fkn`l sk, wmnaj tmj Tjpudano kc Ekrjg` okuaf kdtgn` tmjfkaagrs nt `jjfjf, tmj XTO okuaf prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` gs wjaa gsrjfuoj nts mkafn`l kc fkaagr-fj`kin`gtjf lkvjr`ij`t sjourntnjs. Mkwjvjr, `jntmjrlkvjr`ij`t smkwjf n`tjrjst n` jxpakrn`l suom g pkssndnanty. \ntm tmj Cjfjrga Tjsjrvj„sswgp grrg`ljij`ts wntm tmj Tjpudano kc Ekrjg, tmj anqunfnty prkdajis wjrj skavjfrgtmjr qunoeay. Vmj XTO akst g` kppkrtu`nty tk prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` dyaj`fn`l tk g ckrjnl` oku`try n` rj`in`dn.

_jok`f, gs g rjsuat kc tmj anqunfnty smkrtglj g`f orjfnt oru`om ogusjf dy tmj okaagpsj kctmj ID_ g`f OFK igrejts, tmj rj`in`dn„s n`tjr`gtnk`ga goojptgdnanty n`orjgsjfsnl`ncnog`tay. K` 74 Fjojidjr 488=, tmj XDKO g`f tmj Dg`e kc Ekrjg snl`jf gourrj`oy swgp glrjjij`t kc 488 dnaank` yug`. N` tmj ckaakwn`l ? ik`tms, tmj XDKO

7Tjpkrtjf dy @jtwkre kc Lakdga Ckrjnl` Jxomg`ljs (Mug` Wnu \gn Mun \g`l), 78 Igrom 488=.

4 Tjpkrtjf dy _mg`lmgn _journtnjs Fgnay, 7< _jptjidjr 488=.

Page 9: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 9/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

<

snl`jf sninagr glrjjij`ts wntm tmj Mk`l Ek`l Ik`jtgry Gutmkrnty (MEIG), tmj Oj`trgaDg`e kc Igagysng, tmj Dg`e kc Tussng, Dg`e N`fk`jsng, g`f tmj Oj`trga Dg`e kc Grlj`tn`g, rjspjotnvjay. Vmj strk`l pksntnk` kc tmj rj`in`dn n` tmj wgej kc tmj sudprnijornsns ajf tmj XTO tk djanjvj tmgt tmj rj`in`dn og` dj igfj g` n`tjr`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy.

Vmnrf, `gtnk`ga prnfj okuaf dj gask g ok`trndutn`l cgotkr. Vmns ns sninagr tk wmj` tmjBgpg`jsj lkvjr`ij`t oagnijf tmgt tmj usj kc tmj yj` n` n`tjr`gtnk`ga trg`sgotnk`s wgs`kt ‑okiij`surgtj wntm tmj smgrj kc tmj Bgpg`jsj jok`kiy n` tmj wkraf g`f Bgpg`„sstgtus gs tmj wkraf„s agrljst `jt orjfntkr `gtnk`’ (Vgegln 488>, <:).  Vmns grluij`tijg`s `ktmn`l tk jok`kinsts, dut nt igy ijg` g akt tk pkantnong`s n` fjonsnk`-igen`lpksntnk`s.

Vmj ok`sj`sus vnjw ns tmgt tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kc g `gtnk`ga ourrj`oy drn`lsnipkrtg`t dj`jcnts tk tmj nssug`oj oku`try djogusj tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kc g `gtnk`gaourrj`oy wkuaf (n) rjfuoj jxomg`lj rgtj rnses ckr tmj oku`try„s j`tjrprnsjs, (nn) rjfuojtmj `jjf ckr mkafn`l ikrj ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs, (nnn) prkiktj trgfj dy rjfuon`ltrg`sgotnk` oksts, g`f (nv) niprkvj tmj okipjtntnvj`jss kc tmj ourrj`oy nssug`oj

oku`try„s cn`g`oj sjotkrs. Vmjsj dj`jcnts smkuaf dj kdvnkus j`kulm tk j`okurglj tmjXTO tk pursuj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

Mkwjvjr, skijtmn`l puzzan`l stnaa rjign`s. Cnrst, rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns g ak`l-tjri prkojss g`f wnaa tgej yjgrs, nc `kt fjogfjs, tk rjganzj. Mj`oj, nt ns fnccnouat tknigln`j mkw rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` og` mjap tmj XTO rjfuoj jxomg`lj rnsesg`f prjsjrvj tmj vgauj kc nts ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs, gs wjaa gs ktmjr kdbjotnvjs n`tmj wgej kc tmj sudprnij ornsns.

_jok`f, dy tmj sjok`f mgac kc 488>, tmj Z_ cn`g`onga igrejt mgf stgdnanzjf, g`f tmjrjwgs `k ak`ljr g` niijfngtj tmrjgt tk tmj sgcjty kc tmj XTO„s ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs dy fjcguat, fkaagr fjvgaugtnk`, g`f cgaa n` prnojs kc Z_ lkvjr`ij`t sjourntnjs.

Vmnrf, ourrj`oy n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` rjqunrjs ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`. Jgom stjp n`rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns ikrj kr ajss ok`fntnk`ga k` ojrtgn` stjps n` ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk`. Mkwjvjr, djogusj tmj XTO„s cn`g`onga systji ns stnaa crglnaj g`fig`y fkijstno cn`g`onga rjckris grj stnaa n`okipajtj, tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj ogpntgagooku`t igy ogusj sjrnkus cn`g`onga n`stgdnanty tk tmj oku`try„s jok`kiy. Vmj XTOik`jtgry gutmkrnty e`kws wjaa tmj oksts g`f dj`jcnts kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` gswjaa gs tmj rnses tmgt ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` wnaa drn`l gdkut.

Vmj` wmy fnf tmj XTO suffj`ay djokij sk n`tjrjstjf n` prkiktn`l rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`; Gookrfn`l tk \u (4877), ‑tmj nfjga sjquj`on`l ckr rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tk rjckri tmj jxomg`lj rgtj rjlnij (”ckrigtnk` ijomg`nsis„)cnrst, g`f tmj` tk prkiktj tmj ok`vjrtndnanty kc tmj rj`in`dn u`fjr ogpntga gooku`t g`figej tmj rj`in`dn g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy.’ Mkwjvjr, gs \u pkn`tjf kut, ‑nt ns tkk

fnccnouat tk rjgom ok`sj`sus gik`l gaa pgrtnjs ok`ojr`jf k` mkw tk rjckri tmjjxomg`ljr rgtj (rjlnij). Mj`oj, tmj XDKO akkes k`j wgy g`f rkws g`ktmjr. Vmjprkiktnk` kc tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn ckr n`tjr`gtnk`ga trgfj sjttajij`t… wnaa ckroj us tkspjjf up ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` wntm g ”cnlmt kr fnj„ gttntufj. Djogusj sk ig`yrj`in`dns mgvj cakw` kut kc Utmj Xjkpaj„s Tjpudano kcY Omn`g vng rj`in`dn nipkrtsjttajij`t, yku mgvj tk orjgtj omg``jas tk gaakw tmjsj rj`in`dns tk cakw dgoe. \ntmkutomg``jas ckr rjoyoan`l, `k k`j wnaa dj n`tjrjstjf n` usn`l rj`in`dns ckr trgfj sjttajij`t.Vmus, prjssurjs wnaa dj dunat up tk ckroj kpj` Utmj Xjkpaj„s Tjpudano kcY Omn`g„s ogpntgagooku`t.’ N` \u„s vnjw, ‑wntmn` : yjgrs, Utmj Xjkpaj„s Tjpudano kcY Omn`g smkuaf dj gdajtk rjganzj tmj ok`vjrtndnanty kc rj`in`dns u`fjr ogpntga gooku`t’ (\u 4877). Mjrj, ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk` wgs trjgtjf gs tmj kdbjotnvj pjr sj rgtmjr tmg` g ok`fntnk` ckrrj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. N` Bu`j 4877, g \gaa _trjjt Bkur`ga rjpkrt (4877) igfj g

wnaf lujss tmgt Lkvjr`kr Rmku ‑usjf tmj ag`luglj kc jok`kino `gtnk`gansi tk pusm g`

Page 10: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 10/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

=

glj`fg tmgt uatnigtjay wkuaf akksj` stgtj ok`trka kc tmj jok`kiy dy igen`l tmj yug`,gask e`kw` gs tmj rj`in`dn, kr TID, ikrj fjpj`fj`t k` igrejt ckrojs tmg`lkvjr`ij`t krfjrs. …… Igej tmj pkanoy grluij`ts sk gttrgotnvj tmgt fjonsnk` igejrswnaa gpprkvj tmj nfjgs wntmkut rjganzn`l tmj nipanogtnk`s.’ N` cgot, tmj XDKO„s n`tj`tnk`tk usj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` tk prkiktj ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` mgsdjokij n`orjgsn`lay oajgr ckaakwn`l tmj pgssglj kc tnij.

Nt ns cgnr tk sgy tmgt tmj XDKO n`fjjf wnsmjs, vng rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, tkrjfuoj jxomg`lj rgtj rnses g`f tmj mkafn`l kc ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs, prkiktjtrgfj, g`f niprkvj tmj okipjtntnvj`jss kc tmj XTO„s cn`g`oj sjotkrs. Mkwjvjr,djsnfjs g`f djyk`f tmjsj okiik`ay u`fjrstkkf kdbjotnvjs, tk prkiktj ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk` pjrmgps ns g ikrj niijfngtj g`f nipkrtg`t kdbjotnvj ckr tmjXDKO.

?. MK\ TJ@IN@DN N@VJT@GVNK@GANRGVNK@ MG_DJJ@ XZT_ZJF

?.7 Tkgf Igp kc Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`

Vk prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, fnccjrj`t rkutjs og` dj tgej`. Vmj XDKO mgsgfkptjf wmgt N ogaa g ‑cu`otnk`ga gpprkgom’5 tmgt ns, tk prkiktj tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dngs g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy g`f n`vjstij`t ourrj`oy, g`f cn`gaay skijmkw tk igejrj`in`dn ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs ckr oj`trga dg`es kc ckrjnl` oku`trnjs. Nt ns wkrtm`ktn`l tmgt tmns gpprkgom ns jxgotay tmj sgij gs wmgt wgs prkpksjf dy Rmku rjlgrfn`ltmj usj kc tmj _FT gs g suprg`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy n` pagoj kc tmj Z_ fkaagr.

N` an`j wntm tmj ‑cu`otnk`ga gpprkgom,’ tmjrj grj stnaa fnccjrj`t rkutjs tmgt og` dj pursujftk n`tjr`gtnk`ganzj tmj rj`in`dn. Nt og` djln` wntm jntmjr ru``n`l g trgfj fjcnont kr gogpntga gooku`t fjcnont. Vmj Z_ ns ru``n`l g ourrj`t gooku`t fjcnont g`f mj`oj nt og`prkvnfj fkaagrs tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf vng nts ourrj`t gooku`t. @krigaay, nc g oku`try nsru``n`l g ourrj`t gooku`t surpaus, nt wnaa dj gdaj tk prkvnfj anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmjwkraf dy ru``n`l g ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont. Bgpg` ns g ogsj n` pkn`t. Vmj XTO„sn`tjr`gtnk`ga dgag`oj kc pgyij`ts struoturj ns gd`kriga n` tmgt nt ru`s dktm g ourrj`tgooku`t surpaus g`f g ogpntga gooku`t surpaus gt tmj sgij tnij. Mkw tk prkvnfjrj`in`dn anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf ns g dnl omgaaj`lj tk tmj XTO„s ik`jtgrygutmkrnty.

 Gs g oku`try wntm ‑twn` surpausjs,’ tk prkiktj tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn, tmj XTO og`djln` wntm usn`l tmj rj`in`dn jntmjr gs g` nipkrt sjttajij`t ourrj`oy kr gs g`n`vjstij`t ourrj`oy ckr kutdku`f ckrjnl` fnrjot n`vjstij`t (CFN) kr ckrjnl` aj`fn`l.

Vmj XTO„s ik`jtgry gutmkrnty omksj tmj ckrijr rkutj. Vmj`, n` krfjr tk j`okurglj`k`rjsnfj`ts tk goojpt rj`in`dn pgyij`ts g`f orjgtj g rj`in`dn cu`f pkka dy mkafn`lrj`in`dn, omg``jas mgvj tk dj orjgtjf ckr `k`rjsnfj`ts tk n`vjst tmjnr rj`in`dnprkojjfs n` rj`in`dn gssjts‖sk-ogaajf ‑rj`in`dn rjoyoan`l ijomg`nsis.’ Tjsnfj`ts n`Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g grj j`okurgljf tk mkaf rj`in`dn fjpksnts, rj`in`dn okrpkrgtjdk`fs, g`f rj`in`dn lkvjr`ij`t dk`fs. Vmjy grj gask gaakwjf tk n`vjst n` tmj XTO„s G-smgrj igrejts (rj`in`dn smgrj igrejts) wntm skij anints. Nt ns gssuijf tmgt ckaakwn`ltmj n`orjgsj n` tmj mkafn`l kc rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts, `k`rjsnfj`ts wnaa usj ikrjg`f ikrj rj`in`dn n` trgfj g`f cn`g`onga trg`sgotnk`s. Gs g rjsuat kc jxtj`snvj usj kcrj`in`dn n` trgfj g`f cn`g`onga trg`sgotnk`s g`f n`vjstij`t, gookrfn`l tk kccnongas wntmtmj XDKO, tmj rj`in`dn wnaa n` skij wgy dj usjf n`orjgsn`lay gs ckrjnl` jxomg`ljrjsjrvjs dy ckrjnl` oj`trga dg`es g`f jvj`tugaay djokij g ejy n`tjr`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy.Vk suppajij`t tmns dgsno gpprkgom tmgt djln`s wntm usn`l tmj rj`in`dn gs g` nipkrt

Page 11: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 11/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

>

sjttajij`t ourrj`oy, tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t g`f tmj XDKO gask prkiktj rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` vng omg``jas suom gs snl`n`l ourrj`oy swgp glrjjij`ts wntmckrjnl` oj`trga dg`es, iutugaay mkafn`l lkvjr`ij`t dk`fs dy tmj in`nstrnjs kc cn`g`oj,g`f rjfuon`l tmj usj kc tmj fkaagr gs g vjmnoaj ourrj`oy n` dnagtjrga trgfj vng kccnongaglrjjij`ts wntm rjajvg`t ckrjnl` lkvjr`ij`ts.

Vmj cu`fgij`tga prkdaji wntm tmj XTO„s rkgf igp ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` nstmgt djogusj nt ns ru``n`l g ourrj`t gooku`t surpaus, nt og``kt prkvnfj anqunfnty tk tmjrjst kc tmj wkraf wntmkut n`orjgsn`l nts ckrjnl` angdnantnjs okrrjspk`fn`lay. K` tmj k`jmg`f, nc tmj lgp djtwjj` rj`in`dn nipkrt g`f jxpkrt sjttajij`ts cgnas tk n`orjgsj, tmjusj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g stkrj kc vgauj wnaa cgna tk n`orjgsj. K` tmj ktmjr mg`f, tmjn`orjgsj n` tmj lgp djtwjj` rj`in`dn nipkrt g`f jxpkrt sjttajij`ts ijg`s tmgt,okrrjspk`fn`l tk tmj n`orjgsj n` tmj XTO„s rj`in`dn angdnantnjs, nt mgs tk mkafn`orjgsn`lay ikrj fkaagr-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts, wmnom ns bust wmgt tmj XDKO mgs djj`tryn`l tk gvknf dy prkiktn`l rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Mj`oj, ckr g oku`try wntm gourrj`t gooku`t surpaus, rjayn`l k` rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t tk prkvnfj kccsmkrjigrejts rj`in`dn anqunfnty ns g wgy tk fjcjgt tmj vjry kdbjotnvj kc rj`in`dn

n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` (^u 4874).

?.4 Xrklrjss n` Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`

?.4.7 Tj`in`dn gs Z`nt kc Gooku`t

Vk usj tmj rj`in`dn gs g u`nt kc gooku`t n` trgfj g`f cn`g`onga trg`sgotnk`s smkuaf djtmj cku`fgtnk` kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` n` tmj XTO„s omksj` rkgf igp.Mkwjvjr, mkw tk prkiktj tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g` n`vknoj ourrj`oy ckr trgfjtrg`sgotnk`s g`f gs g fj`kin`gtnk` ourrj`oy ckr cn`g`onga trg`sgotnk`s mgs `kt djj`fnsoussjf n` tmj rkgf igp. Ckr ikst ckrjnl` kdsjrvjrs, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs gtrgfj sjttajij`t ourrj`oy ijg`s tmgt tmj rj`in`dn ns gask usjf gs g` n`vknoj ourrj`oy.

Mkwjvjr, tk usj tmj rj`in`dn gs g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy fkjs `kt `jojssgrnay ijg` tmgttmj rj`in`dn mgs djj` usjf gs g` n`vknoj ourrj`oy. Ckr ckrjnl` jxpkrtjrs, tk usj tmjrj`in`dn gs g` n`vknoj ourrj`oy ns dj`jcnonga, djogusj tmj rj`in`dn ns g ourrj`oy n`gpprjongtnk`. Ckr nipkrtjrs n` tmj XTO, mkwjvjr, tmns ns nrrgtnk`ga, djogusj nt ijg`stmgt tmjy wnaa ckrcjnt tmj pkssndaj lgn`s crki tmj gpprjongtnk`. _ninagray, XTO jxpkrtjrssmkuaf dj mgppy tk usj tmj rj`in`dn gs g` n`vknoj ourrj`oy, dut tmjnr ckrjnl`oku`tjrpgrts smkuaf dj rjauotg`t tk fk sk. Gctjr : yjgrs kc prkiktn`l rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, tmjrj grj stnaa `k kccnonga kr `k`kccnonga stgtnstnos k` tmj usj kc tmjrj`in`dn gs g` n`vknoj kr fj`kin`gtnk` ourrj`oy gvgnagdaj. Mkwjvjr, g`jofktgajvnfj`oj smkws tmgt ikst XTO j`tjrprnsjs tmgt usj tmj rj`in`dn ckr trgfj sjttajij`tfk `kt usj tmj rj`in`dn tk n`vknoj trgfj.

?.4.4 Tj`in`dn gs _jttajij`t Ourrj`oy

Nt ns cgnr tk sgy tmgt tmj prklrjss n` usn`l tmj rj`in`dn gs g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy nsniprjssnvj. _n`oj tmj tmnrf qugrtjr kc 4878, tmj giku`t kc rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`tn`orjgsjf frgigtnogaay. Gookrfn`l tk tmj MEIG, tmj vkauij kc rj`in`dn usjf n` orkss-dkrfjr trgfj sjttajij`t djtwjj` tmj ign`ag`f kc tmj XTO g`f Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`grjgomjf 4.3 trnaank` yug` dy tmj j`f kc 4874. Vmj smgrj kc rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t n`tmj XTO„s tktga trgfj mgs n`orjgsjf crki ?% n` 4878 g`f =.6% n` 4877 tk 77% n` Igy487?.?

 ?

 Crki tmj \mntj Xgpjr k` Orkss-dkrfjr TID Dusn`jss nssujf dy tmj Dg`e kc Omn`g, gs rjpkrtjf dy AnBn`lxng, Omn`g Dusn`jss @jws, 7: Buay 487?.

Page 12: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 12/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

78

 Gookrfn`l tk tmj MEIG, tktga rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t mg`fajf dy dg`es n` Mk`lEk`l, Omn`g n` 4874 surpgssjf 4.3 trnaank` yug` (Z_$67? dnaank`), g yjgr-k`-yjgrn`orjgsj kc ?<% g`f rjprjsj`tn`l kvjr >8% kc tmj orkss-dkrfjr trgfj n` tmj ign`ag`fkc tmj XTO sjttajf n` rj`in`dn .6

?.4.? Tj`in`dn gs _tkrj kc Sgauj

Dgsjf k` tmj rj`in`dn pkka orjgtjf vng rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t, g rj`in`dn kccsmkrjigrejt mgs djj` lrkwn`l rgpnfay n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Tj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts n`Ak`fk`, _n`lgpkrj, g`f Vgnpjn,Omn`g grj gask djln``n`l tk tgej smgpj. ?.4.?.7 Tj`in`dn Fjpksnts

K`j kc tmj ikst nipkrtg`t ijgsurjij`ts ckr tmj prklrjss n` rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tmj n`orjgsj n` rj`in`dn fjpksnts mjaf dy rjsnfj`ts kc Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g, wmnom sjrvj gs tmj dgsns ckr tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g stkrj kc vgauj. Crkitmj inffaj kc 4878 tk tmj tmnrf qugrtjr kc 4877, rj`in`dn fjpksnts mjaf dy Mk`l Ek`l,

Omn`g rjsnfj`ts seyrkoejtjf. Nt wgs wnfjay jxpjotjf tmgt tmj tktga giku`t kc rj`in`dnfjpksnts wnaa surpgss 7 trnaank` yug` dy tmj j`f kc 4874.:

Mkwjvjr, tmj ikij`tui kc fjig`f ckr rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`gsuffj`ay akst lrku`f n` tmj ckurtm qugrtjr kc 4877. Gookrfn`l tk tmj MEIG, tktgarj`in`dn fjpksnts g`f kutstg`fn`l rj`in`dn ojrtncnogtjs kc fjpksnt stkkf gt <48 dnaank`yug` gt tmj j`f kc 4874 (Omn`g Fgnay  487?). Vmns sakwfkw` okuaf dj gttrndutjf tk tmjwjgej`n`l kc rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s, wmnom n` tur` wgs gttrndutgdaj tk tmjwjgej`n`l kc tmj XTO„s n`tjr`gtnk`ga dgag`oj kc pgyij`ts.

?.4.?.4 Tj`in`dn Dk`fs

Vmj ikst pkpuagr ogtjlkry kc rj`in`dn dk`fs ns ogaajf ‑fni sui’ dk`fs, wmnom grj

fj`kin`gtjf n` rj`in`dn g`f nssujf n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g.Vmj XTO„s In`nstry kc Cn`g`oj nssujf 48 dnaank` yug` n` lkvjr`ij`t dk`fs n` Mk`lEk`l, Omn`g k` 4? Gulust 4877. Vmns pgrtnouagr nssug`oj wgs rjlgrfjf gs g igbkrdkkst tk rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g`f g ‑dnl lnct’ tk tmj pjkpaj n` Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g.

 Gookrfn`l tk tmj MEIG, tktga nssug`oj kc fni sui dk`fs n` 4874 giku`tjf tk 774.4dnaank` yug` g`f tmj kutstg`fn`l giku`t kc fni sui dk`fs rjgomjf 4?<.4 dnaank` yug`,rjprjsj`tn`l g 34% n`orjgsj okipgrjf tk tmj giku`t gt tmj j`f kc 4877 (MEIG487?). Mkwjvjr, n` 487?, fni sui dk`f nssug`oj cgnajf tk igej nipkrtg`t mjgfwgy.

?.4.?.? Tj`in`dn Akg`s

N` 4878, wmnaj tmj tktga giku`t kc rj`in`dn oustkijr fjpksnts n` dg`es n` Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g wgs ?7: dnaank` yug`, rj`in`dn akg`s jxtj`fjf dy tmji tktgajf k`ay 4 dnaank`yug`. Vmj akg`/fjpksnt rgtnk wgs ajss tmg` 7%. Vmj gsyiijtry djtwjj` rj`in`dnfjpksnts g`f rj`in`dn akg`s wgs strnen`l g`f gttrndutgdaj tk tmj cgot tmgt tmj n`tjrjstrgtj k` rj`in`dn akg`s wgs rjagtnvjay mnlm g`f rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s wjrjstnaa strk`l. Vmj gsyiijtry mgs djj` rjfuojf sn`oj tmj ckurtm qugrtjr kc 4877. Vmjniprkvjij`t n` tmj gsyiijtry djtwjj` fjpksnts g`f akg`s og` dj gttrndutjf tk tmj

6 Gookrfn`l tk g ikrj rjoj`t rjpkrt, rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t n` 4878 gooku`tjf ckr k`ay 4.:% kc tmj

XTO„s tktga trgfj. N` 4877, tmj okrrjspk`fn`l cnlurj rksj frgigtnogaay tk >% kc tktga trgfj (Omn`g Fgnay  487?).

: Gs kc tmj j`f kc _jptjidjr 4877, rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g rjgomjf 344.4 dnaank` yug`.

Page 13: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 13/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

77

n`orjgsj n` orkss-dkrfjr trgfj cn`g`oj g`f sy`fnogtjf akg`s. Mkwjvjr, okipgrjf wntmMk`l Ek`l, Omn`g„s kvjrgaa akg`/fjpksnt rgtnk, tmj gsyiijtry ns stnaa vjry sjrnkus. Jgrayn` 487?, tmj Wng`mgn 3

?.4.?.6 Tj`in`dn Vrgfj Orjfnt

orkss-dkrfjr aj`fn`l pnakt somjij wgs agu`omjf, j`gdan`lokipg`njs n`okrpkrgtjf n` Wng`mgn tk dkrrkw rj`in`dn akg`s crki dg`es n` Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g ckr tmj fjvjakpij`t kc Wng`mgn.

 Gookrfn`l tk g `ktj rjajgsjf dy _\NCV n` Igy 4874,<

?.4.?.: Tj`in`dn Fnrjot N`vjstij`t

gatmkulm tmj smgrj kc rj`in`dntrgfj pgyij`t dy vgauj n` lakdga pgyij`ts ns stnaa `jlanlndaj, gooku`tn`l ckr 8.?6% kctktga trgfj pgyij`t, tmj smgrj kc rj`in`dn n` trgfj cn`g`oj mgs djj` n`orjgsn`l rgpnfay.Zp tk tmj tnij kc tmj rjajgsj kc tmj `ktj, tmj rj`in`dn mgf g igrejt smgrj kc 6% n` tmjlakdga nssug`oj kc ajttjrs kc orjfnt dy vgauj. Vmns igejs tmj rj`in`dn tmj tmnrf agrljstourrj`oy n` tmj lakdga nssug`oj kc ajttjrs kc orjfnt dy vgauj, gctjr tmj Z_ fkaagr g`f tmjjurk.

_n`oj Bg`ugry 4877, XTO j`tjrprnsjs mgvj djj` gaakwjf tk n`vjst kccsmkrj n`rj`in`dn. J`tjrprnsjs og` rgnsj rj`in`dn cu`fs k`smkrj g`f rjint tmj cu`fs kccsmkrjvng k`smkrj dg`es. K`smkrj dg`es„ kccsmkrj drg`omjs og` rgnsj rj`in`dn cu`fsk`smkrj g`f jxtj`f akg`s tk j`tjrprnsjs ckr kccsmkrj n`vjstij`t.

?.4.?.3 Tj`in`dn Wugancnjf Ckrjnl` N`stntutnk`ga N`vjstkrs

Vmj ikst nipkrtg`t fjvjakpij`t n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tmj n`trkfuotnk` kcrj`in`dn qugancnjf ckrjnl` n`stntutnk`ga n`vjstkrs (TWCNN). Vmj Omn`g Dg`en`l TjluagtkryOkiinttjj, tmj XDKO, g`f tmj _tgtj Gfin`nstrgtnk` kc Ckrjnl` Jxomg`lj bkn`tayn`ntngtjf tmj TWCNN somjij k` 73 Fjojidjr 4877. Gookrfn`l tk tmns somjij, qugancnjfckrjnl` n`stntutnk`ga n`vjstkrs grj gaakwjf tk n`vjst n` tmj XTO„s G-smgrj igrejt n`rj`in`dn. Gt tmj djln``n`l, tmj TWCNN quktg wgs 48 dnaank` yug`. N` Gprna 4874, tmjquktg wgs rgnsjf tk :8 dnaank` yug`. N` @kvjidjr 4874, nt wgs n`orjgsjf tk 488 dnaank`yug`.

?.4.6 Tj`in`dn gs Tjsjrvj Ourrj`oy

N`ntngaay, tmj XDKO„s swgp glrjjij`ts wntm ktmjr oj`trga dg`es wjrj ign`ay gnijf gtprkvnfn`l anqunfnty suppkrt tk nts oku`tjrpgrts. Tj`in`dn cu`fs kdtgn`jf dy ckrjnl`oj`trga dg`es grj fjpksntjf n` tmj gooku`ts mjaf wntm tmj XDKO gs XDKO angdnantnjs. Gtg agtjr stglj, tmj swgp glrjjij`ts grj ign`ay gnijf gt j`okurgln`l ckrjnl` oj`trgadg`es tk mkaf rj`in`dn gs ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs. Okrrjspk`fn`lay, ckrjnl` oj`trgadg`es ok`fuot swgps wntm tmj XDKO ckr tmj purpksj kc fnvjrsncnogtnk` g`f ktmjr

dj`jcnts.

Djsnfjs ourrj`oy swgps, ckrjnl` oj`trga dg`es gask duy rj`in`dn dk`fs gs ckrjnl`ourrj`oy rjsjrvjs. _n`oj _jptjidjr 4878, wmj` Igagysng djogij tmj cnrst oku`try tkfk tmns, ig`y oku`trnjs mgvj buipjf k` tmj rj`in`dn rjsjrvjs dg`fwglk`.

3 G sigaa grjg n` _mj`zmj` dkrfjrn`l Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g.

<

  G drk`zj ijfga ckr TID n` Vrgfj Cn`g`oj, _\NCV TID trgoejr, Igy 4874.mttp2//www.swnct.oki/rjskurojs/fkouij`ts/_\NCV[TID[Vrgoejr[Igy[4874.pfc  

Page 14: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 14/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

74

6. TJ@IN@DN N@VJT@GVNK@GANRGVNK@ G@F OGXNVGAGOOKZ@V ANDJTGANRGVNK@

6.7 Vmj Nipgot kc Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` k` OgpntgaOk`trkas

\mgt ns gt nssuj ns `kt wmjtmjr tmj XTO smkuaf jvj`tugaay kpj` nts ogpntga gooku`t,tmkulm nt ns g fjdgtgdaj nssuj5 wmgt ns gt nssuj ns wmjtmjr tmj XTO smkuaf fnsig`tajtmj rjign`n`l ok`trkas wntm goojajrgtn`l spjjf gookrfn`l tk g tnijtgdaj. Djckrjrj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wgs agu`omjf n` 488>, tmj duae kc tmj XTO„s ogpntgagooku`t mgf djj` andjrganzjf. Mkwjvjr, n` skij ejy grjgs, ogpntga cakws grj stnaasudbjot tk tnlmt ok`trkas g`f tmj rj`in`dn ns `kt ok`vjrtndaj n` skij trg`sgotnk`s krok`vjrtndnanty ns anintjf n` ktmjrs. Cnrst, n` prn`onpaj, mkusjmkafs grj `kt gaakwjf tk n`vjstgdrkgf. Vmjy og` fk sk k`ay vng tmj sk-ogaajf qugancnjf fkijstno n`stntutnk`ga n`vjstkrs(WFNN). Dy tmj j`f kc 4874, 783 cn`g`onga n`stntutnk`s mgf kdtgn`jf WFNN stgtus g`f tmj

tktga quktg ckr WFNN n`vjstij`t wgs Z_$=3.3 dnaank`. Ikrj nipkrtg`tay, jgom rjsnfj`t„sg``uga puromgsj kc ckrjnl` jxomg`ljs ns ogppjf gt Z_$:8,888. _jok`f, kvjrsjgsdkrrkwn`l dy fkijstno cn`g`onga g`f `k`cn`g`onga okrpkrgtnk`s ns sudbjot tk strnotrjstrnotnk`s. Vmnrf, ckrjnl` n`vjstij`t n` tmj XTO„s jqunty igrejt ns gask sudbjot tk strnotrjstrnotnk`s. Ckrjnl` n`vjstkrs og` n`vjst n` tmj XTO„s D-smgrj igrejt (smgrjsfj`kin`gtjf n` ckrjnl` ourrj`onjs). Vmjy grj `kt gaakwjf tk n`vjst n` tmj G-smgrjigrejt (smgrjs fj`kin`gtjf n` rj`in`dn), u`ajss tmjy n`vjst vng tmj qugancnjf ckrjnl`n`stntutnk`ga n`vjstkrs (WCNN) somjij. Ourrj`tay, tmj quktg ckr WCNN ns Z_$738 dnaank`.Ckurtm, `k`rjsnfj`ts„ n`vjstij`t n` tmj XTO„s rjga jstgtj igrejt ns gask sudbjot tkvgrnkus rjstrnotnk`s (Omgk 487?). Nt og` dj sjj` tmgt tmj XTO„s rjign`n`l ogpntgaok`trka ns ign`ay gnijf gt smkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws.

Djckrj tmj agu`om kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, tmjrj wjrj twk ign` omg``jas kcsmkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws. Cnrst, kvjr-n`vknon`l nipkrts g`f u`fjr-n`vknon`ljxpkrts  kr   u`fjr-n`vknon`l nipkrts g`f kvjr-n`vknon`l jxpkrts, fjpj`fn`l k` tmjomg`ljs n` rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s. _jok`f, ogrryn`l pmysnoga `ktjs gorksstmj dkrfjrs kr jxomg`ln`l ik`jy tmrkulm u`fjrlrku`f ik`jy fjgajrs. Vmj sntugtnk`mgs omg`ljf snl`ncnog`tay sn`oj tmj agu`om kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Agrljgiku`ts kc rj`in`dn `kw og` ajlgaay ikvj gorkss tmj dkrfjrs vng tmj rj`in`dnkccsmkrj igrejt n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g wntm jgsj (Cnlurj 7). 

Cnlurj 72 Vmj Tj`in`dn Kccsmkrj Igrejt g`f Orkss-Dkrfjr Ogpntga Cakws

XTO 9 Xjkpaj„s Tjpudano kc Omn`g, TID 9 rj`in`dn.

_kuroj2 Frgw` dy tmj gutmkr.

TID 

Vrgfj sjttajij`t (`jt) ^ug` ‑rjoyoaj’  Z`wn`fn`l 

TID Z_$Z_$

N`tjr`gtnk`ga ogpntga kutcakws N`tjr`gtnk`ga ogpntga n`cakws 

Ign`ag`f XTO cn`g`onga igrejt 

XTO„s kccsmkrj TID igrejt 

Crjj jxomg`lj kc ourrj`onjs 

Orkss-dkrfjr cakws kc ik`jy 

   T   I   D

   T   I   D

Z_$ 

Page 15: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 15/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

7?

Cnrst, vng nipkrt sjttajij`t, rj`in`dn cakw n`tk Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Vmns og` dj fk`j vngtmj trg`sgotnk`s djtwjj` ign`ag`f cnris g`f tmjnr sudsnfngrnjs n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g n`tmj `gij kc rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t. _jok`f, tmj ‑rjoyoan`l ijomg`nsis’ gaakw tmjrj`in`dn n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g tk dj n`vjstjf n` rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts n` tmjign`ag`f kc tmj XTO. N` tmns wgy, n`tjr`gtnk`ga n`vjstkrs grj gdaj tk dypgss tmj XTO„sogpntga ok`trkas tk n`vjst n` rj`in`dn gssjts tmgt grj stnaa ckrdnffj` kr rjstrnotjf u`fjrtmj ourrj`t ogpntga ok`trka rjlnij. Nt ns wkrtm jipmgsnzn`l tmgt gatmkulm tmj rj`in`dntrgfj sjttajij`t somjij g`f rjoyoan`l ijomg`nsis mgvj pgrtngaay fnsig`tajf tmjok`trka kvjr smkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws, rjstrnotnk`s rjign`. Tj`in`dn tmgtikvj djtwjj` tmj ign`ag`f kc tmj XTO g`f Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g mgvj tk fk sk tmrkulmg sjttajij`t systji kpjrgtjf dy tmj Dg`e kc Omn`g g`f tmj qugrtjray `jt cakws grjogppjf. Curtmjrikrj, n`vjstij`t kc tmj ‑rjoyoajf’ rj`in`dn n` tmj ign`ag`f kc tmj XTOns, gs smkw`, sudbjot tk rjstrnotnk`s dktm n` qug`tnty g`f igrejt fjstn`gtnk`s.

6.4 G @jw _tglj kc Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk`

N` Cjdrugry 4874, tmj XDKO rjajgsjf g pkanoy rjsjgrom rjpkrt, n` wmnom tmjrj grj ckurgrluij`ts fjsjrvn`l `ktnon`l. Cnrst, tmj XTO ns n` g pjrnkf kc ‑strgtjlno kppkrtu`nty’ ckrogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` g`f mj`oj nts ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` smkuaf djgoojajrgtjf (_mj`l 4874g). _jok`f, tmjrj wnaa dj `k agrlj rnses, nc tmj XTO kpj`s ntsogpntga gooku`t. Vmnrf, tmj trgfntnk`ga vnjw k` tmj sjquj`on`l kc ogpntga gooku`tandjrganzgtnk` fkjs `kt gppay tk tmj XTO. Vmj andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj n`tjrjst rgtj, tmjjxomg`lj rgtj, g`f tmj ogpntga gooku`t og` dj nipajij`tjf gt tmj sgij tnij ‑n` gokkrfn`gtjf wgy.’ Ckurtm, tmjrj smkuaf dj g tnijtgdaj ckr tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj ogpntgagooku`t.

Tjoj`tay, skij kccnongas crki tmj XDKO wj`t gs cgr gs sgyn`l tmgt wntmkut tmjandjrganzgtnk` kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t, tmjrj wnaa dj `k andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj n`tjrjst rgtj

g`f jxomg`lj rgtj. N` ktmjr wkrfs, tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t ns `kwrjlgrfjf gs g prjrjqunsntj ckr n`tjrjst rgtj g`f jxomg`lj rgtj andjrganzgtnk`, `kt tmjktmjr wgy grku`f. Ckr jxgipaj, n` tmksj kccnongas„ vnjw, nc tmj ogpntga gooku`t, n`oaufn`lsmkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws, ns `kt cuaay andjrganzjf, tmj jxomg`lj rgtj fjonfjfdy tmj ourrj`t gooku`t dgag`oj g`f ak`l-tjri ogpntga cakws ns `kt g truay igrejt-fjtjrin`jf jxomg`lj rgtj.=

 Gt tmns ikij`t n` tnij, : yjgrs n`tk tmj lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns, ckr tmj igbkrnty kc XTOjok`kinsts, ‑tmj ikrj nipkrtg`t g`f ikrj niijfngtj dj`jcnt crki rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tmgt …(nt) wnaa gff ikij`tui tk rjckris,’ wmnom ‑n`oaufj tmjkpj`n`l kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t, n`orjgsn`l jxomg`lj rgtj cajxndnanty, andjrganzn`l tmjn`tjrjst rgtjs, kpj`n`l tmj ogpntga igrejts g`f rjfuon`l j`try dgrrnjrs tk tmj cn`g`ongan`fustry’ (Ig 48742 >).

Nt ns wkrtm `ktn`l tmgt n` tmj XDKO fkouij`t, rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g`f tmjrjagtnk`smnp djtwjj` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` g`f ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`wjrj dgrjay ij`tnk`jf. Nt og` dj sjj` tmgt ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` ns `k ak`ljrok`cn`jf gs bust g ok`fntnk` ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. N`stjgf, nt ns rjlgrfjf gs gpkwjrcua jxtjr`ga ckroj tk dj rjajgsjf tk pusm tmrkulm fkijstno rjckris g`frjstruoturn`l. \mnaj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns stnaa g pkanoy lkga g`f djn`l

= N`tjr`ga Ok`cjrj`oj k` Tj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, Dkyug` Cku`fgtnk`, Djnbn`l, ?8 Bu`j 487?.

Page 16: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 16/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

76

pursujf, tmj sorgpn`l kc tmj rjign`n`l ogpntga ok`trkas mgs okij tk fkin`gtj tmjXTO„s pkanoy glj`fg.>

6.? G Fnlrjssnk`2 Antjrgturj k` Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk`

N` tmj antjrgturj, tmj ign` grluij`ts ckr crjj ikvjij`t kc ogpntga n`oaufj tmj ckaakwn`l2

•  crjj cakws kc ogpntga ajgf tk kptniga gaakogtnk` kc rjskurojs, g`f

•  ogpntga ok`trkas fk `kt wkre g`f ajgf tk ikrj igrejt fnstkrtnk`s.

Vmjkrjtnogaay spjgen`l, nt ns n`fnsputgdaj tmgt n` g pjrcjot wkraf tmj crjj cakw kc ogpntgagorkss tmj lakdj niprkvjs wjacgrj. Vmj wkraf, mkwjvjr, ns `kt pjrcjot. \ntm rjlgrf tkg` nipjrcjot wkraf, tmjrj ns `k ok`sj`sus k` wmjtmjr crjj ikvjij`t kc orkss-dkrfjrogpntga cakws ns kptniga. Nt ns `kt fnccnouat tk smkw tmgt wntm n`ckrigtnk` nipjrcjotnk` g`figrejt fnstkrtnk`, g crjj cakw kc ogpntga og` ajgf tk insgaakogtnk` kc rjskurojs (Kogipk,_pnjlja, g`f _tnlantz 488=).

Djckrj tmj Gsng` cn`g`onga ornsns, ogpntga ok`trkas wjrj u`nvjrsgaay rjlgrfjf gs ‑dgf.’ Gctjr tmj ornsns, mkwjvjr, tmj ikkf kc jok`kinsts gs wjaa gs lkvjr`ij`t kccnongas mgsomg`ljf. Vmj NIC lrgfugaay smnctjf nts stg`oj k` tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc ogpntga gooku`ts,gfinttn`l tmgt nt ns `jojssgry tk ogrjcuaay ig`glj g`f sjquj`oj tmj andjrganzgtnk`prkojss n` krfjr tk in`ninzj ok`okintg`t rnses (Kstry jt ga. 4878, 4877, 4874).

 Gctjr tmj 488=‟488> lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns, ikrj oku`trnjs wjrj rjskrtn`l tk ogpntgaok`trkas n` k`j wgy kr g`ktmjr tk fjga wntm ogpntga cakw vkagtnanty. Vmj NIC mgs rjoj`tayfk`j g akt tk fjstnligtnzj tmj usj kc ogpntga ok`trkas gak`lsnfj igorkjok`kino g`fprufj`tnga pkanonjs (Kstry jt ga. 4877).

Xjrmgps tmj k`ay jxojptnk` n` tmns tnfj kc `jw trj`f n` ogpntga ok`trkas ns tmj XTO,wmksj oj`trga dg`e fjoagrjf tmgt tmj oku`try ns n` ‑g strgtjlno pjrnkf kc wn`fkw kc

kppkrtu`ntnjs tk goojajrgtj ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`’ (_mj`l 4874d).

Vmjrj grj cjw XTO jok`kinsts wmk kppksj tmj jvj`tuga tktga andjrganzgtnk` kc tmjogpntga gooku`t g`f cuaa ok`vjrtndnanty kc tmj rj`in`dn. Vmj ejy fnccjrj`oj gik`l tmjianjs n` tmj nssuj kc sjquj`on`l. Vmjrj grj fnccjrj`t vnjws k` tmj nipkrtg`oj kcsjquj`on`l n` tmj antjrgturj. Vmj ok`vj`tnk`ga vnjw jipmgsnzjs tmj nipkrtg`oj kcgomnjvn`l igorkjok`kino stgdnanty g`f fjvjakpn`l fkijstno cn`g`onga n`stntutnk`s,igrejts, g`f n`struij`ts djckrj andjrganzn`l tmj ogpntga gooku`t (Bkm`stk` 7>>=). Vmnsgpprkgom og` dj ogaajf tmj ‑lrgfuganst gpprkgom.’ G` gatjr`gtnvj vnjw strjssjsok`strgn`ts k` rjckris g`f tmj anintjf ogpgonty kc oku`trnjs tk rjckri tmjisjavjs n` tmjgdsj`oj kc jxtjr`ga prjssurjs ckr rjckri. Vmns vnjw cgvkrs tmj ‑dnl-dg`l gpprkgom.’ 78

Nt sjjis tmgt djogusj kc tmj crustrgtnk` n` pusmn`l curtmjr rjckris gak`l tmj lrgfuganstgpprkgom tmgt tmj XTO mgs gfkptjf sn`oj tmj agtj-7><8s, tmj XDKO mgs djokij ikrjsyipgtmjtno tkwgrf tmj dnl-dg`l gpprkgom.

 Ginffaj vnjw ns tmgt ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` smkuaf dj pgrt kc g ok`ourrj`t,

n`tjlrgtjf, g`f okiprjmj`snvj gpprkgom tk igorkjok`kino g`f struoturga rjckri(Lgadns 7>>6). Vmj inffaj wgy ns agdjajf tmj ‑n`tjlrgtjf gpprkgom’ (Egwgn g`f Vgegln4878).

> Nt sjjis tmgt tmj lkvjr`ij`t mgs gfbustjf nts pkanoy k` ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` glgn`. Vmj tk`j mgs

djokij ikrj ogutnkus rjoj`tay.78

  _jj pgpjr dy Lgadns (7>>6), wmnom ns g survjy kc tmj jgray antjrgturj k` tmj sjquj`on`l kc ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk`.

Page 17: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 17/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

7:

Vmj XTO„s ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` mgs ejpt rkulmay tk tmj ckaakwn`l sjquj`oj2andjrganzn`l ourrj`t gooku`t djckrj andjrganzn`l ogpntga gooku`t, andjrganzn`l CFN djckrjandjrganzn`l n`fnrjot n`vjstij`t, andjrganzn`l ak`l-tjri ogpntga djckrj andjrganzn`l smkrt-tjri ogpntga, andjrganzn`l pkrtckank djckrj andjrganzn`l dkrrkwn`l, andjrganzn`l ogpntgan`cakws djckrj andjrganzn`l ogpntga kutcakws, g`f sk k`. Mkwjvjr, tmj nssuj kcsjquj`on`l ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` ns `kt bust gdkut tmj sjquj`on`l kc ntjis n`tmj ogpntga gooku`t ckr andjrganzgtnk`. Ikrj nipkrtg`tay, nt ns g qujstnk` kc mkw tk dunafup n`stntutnk`ga ogpgonty tk ig`glj tmj rnses g`f in`ninzj tmj fnstkrtnk`s lj`jrgtjf n`tmj prkojss kc ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`.

 Gookrfn`l tk g rjpkrt dy tmj N`tjr`gtnk`ga Dg`e ckr Tjok`struotnk` g`f Fjvjakpij`t(\kraf Dg`e) g`f NIC (488:, ?7<)2

_jquj`on`l ns tmj sjttn`l kc prnkrntnjs gik`l cn`g`onga sjotkr ijgsurjs, g`f tmjgpprkprngtj sjquj`on`l g`f okkrfn`gtnk` kc rjckris ns nipkrtg`t ckr tmjckaakwn`l rjgsk`s2

•  N`gpprkprngtj sjquj`on`l kc rjckris okuaf ogusj jxojssnvj rnse

tgen`l g`f cn`g`onga n`stgdnanty.

•  Anintjf n`stntutnk`ga ogpgonty `jojssgrnay rjqunrjs skijprnkrntnzgtnk` kc rjckri jajij`ts.

•  Lnvj` tmj `uijrkus pkanoy g`f kpjrgtnk`ga rjckris n` jgom grjgkc cn`g`onga pkanoy, sjttn`l prnkrntnjs okuaf cgonantgtj g`f j`okurgljtmj gfkptnk` kc rjckris5 mj`oj, tmns gspjot kc cn`g`onga sjotkrgssjssij`ts ns nipkrtg`t.

Mj`oj, gookrfn`l tk g` NIC rjpkrt (Nsmnn g`f Mgdjrijnjr 4884), djogusj cn`g`ongaandjrganzgtnk` wnaa trnlljr cn`g`onga g`f igorkjok`kino rnses, rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgontyg`f nts n`crgstruoturj smkuaf dj dunat up n` n`fnvnfuga cn`g`onga igrejts N` tmj rjpkrt, n`

krfjr kc okipajxnty g`f rnsen`jss, igrejts grj fnvnfjf n`tk ik`jy g`f jxomg`ljigrejts, lkvjr`ij`t dk`f igrejts, dg`en`l g`f cn`g`onga sjrvnojs tk tgrljt lrkups,okrpkrgtj fjdt g`f jqunty igrejts, g`f fjrnvgtnvjs g`f gssjt-dgoejf sjourntnjs. Vmjckaakwn`l grj ogtjlkrnjs kc ijgsurjs ckr dunafn`l up rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty (Nsmnng`f Mgdjrijnjr 4884)2

•  Igrejt g`f prkfuot fjvjakpij`t

•  Tnse intnlgtnk`

•  Cn`g`onga systji n`crgstruoturj

•  Cn`g`onga n`stntutnk`s rjstruoturn`l g`f rjogpntganzgtnk`.

Kdvnkusay, tmj dunafn`l up kc rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty n` jgom cn`g`onga igrejt n` gok`ojrtjf wgy smkuaf prjojfj tmj cuaa andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t. Ckrjxgipaj, tmj fjvjakpij`t kc lkvjr`ij`t dk`f igrejts g`f tmj jstgdansmij`t kc grnse-crjj ynjaf ourvj prkvnfj tmj dj`omigre ckr prnon`l okrpkrgtj dk`fs g`f ktmjr ikrjrnsey sjourntnjs g`f fjrnvgtnvj prkfuots. Mj`oj, tmj ckrigtnk` kc tmj rnse-crjj ynjafourvj n` tmj lkvjr`ij`t dk`f igrejt smkuaf prjojfj tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc ogpntga„sgoojss tk g`f jxnt crki tmj lkvjr`ij`t dk`f igrejt g`f ktmjr ikrj skpmnstnogtjfcn`g`onga igrejts. Ktmjrwnsj, tmj rnses orjgtjf dy crjj ikvjij`ts kc ogpntga n`tk g`fkut kc tmjsj igrejts grj nipkssndaj tk ig`glj. N` ok`trgst, nt ns fnccnouat tk sjj mkw tmjcrjj goojss tk g`f jxnt crki tmj lkvjr`ij`t dk`f igrejt dy ckrjnl` n`vjstkrs og`gutkigtnogaay ajgf tk tmj dunafup kc rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty n` tmj igrejt, g`f wmy ntns g djttjr strgtjly tmg` tmj k`j n` wmnom tmj dunafup kc rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty

tgejs prjojfj`t tk tmj kpj`n`l up kc tmj igrejt tk ckrjnl` n`vjstkrs.  

Page 18: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 18/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

73

6.6 Xrjrjqunsntjs ckr Cuaa Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk`

Vmj XTO mgs `kw j`tjrjf tmj stglj kc andjrganzn`l smkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntgacakws kr, ikrj kr ajss jqunvgaj`tay, tmj cuaa ok`vjrtndnanty kc tmj rj`in`dn. Nc nt ns goojptjf

tk cuaay andjrganzj tmj oku`try„s ogpntga gooku`t, skij prjrjqunsntjs iust dj ijt g`f gejy qujstnk` ns wmjtmjr nt ns rjganstno g`f gcckrfgdaj ckr tmj XTO tk sjt g tnijtgdaj tkokipajtj ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` ‑dgsnogaay’ djckrj 487: g`f cuaay djckrj 4848.

Djckrj andjrganzn`l tmj ogpntga gooku`t cuaay g`f igen`l tmj rj`in`dn cuaay ok`vjrtndaj,tmj lkvjr`ij`t `jjfs tk fjga wntm ig`y ikrj prkdajis. \ntmkut mgvn`l skavjf tmjsjprkdajis, g mgsty andjrganzgtnk` kc smkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws ns fg`ljrkus.

Cnrst, igorkjok`kino stgdnanty mgs tk dj gomnjvjf. Nc tmj jok`kiy succjrs crki mnlmn`cagtnk` g`f sjrnkus gssjt duddajs, tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc smkrt-tjri ogpntga cakws wnaaorjgtj agrlj vkagtnanty n` ogpntga cakws, wmnom n` tur` wnaa curtmjr fjstgdnanzj tmj jok`kiy.Ourrj`tay, tmj XTO„s n`cagtnk` ns ikfjrgtj, dut, fjspntj tmj lkvjr`ij`t orgoefkw`,mkusj prnojs mgvj djj` n`orjgsn`l ok`tn`ukusay. Gt ajgst n` skij cnrst-tnjr ontnjs, tmj

rjga jstgtj duddajs grj sjrnkus. Curtmjrikrj, djogusj kc prjvgaj`t kvjrogpgonty,prkcntgdnanty ns akw g`f cgaan`l gorkss n`fustrnjs. Vmj XTO„s lrkwtm ns u`fjr sjrnkusfkw`wgrf prjssurj. Mj`oj, tmj ok`cnfj`oj kc n`vjstkrs n` tmj jok`kiy mgs rjgomjf grjokrf akw sn`oj tmj lakdga cn`g`onga ornsns.

_jok`f, cn`g`onga n`stntutnk`s smkuaf dj strj`ltmj`jf. \ntm mnlm ajvjrglj g`f g mnlm`k`pjrckrin`l akg` rgtnk, tmj cn`g`onga systji wnaa djokij vjry vua`jrgdaj tk omg`ljsn` ogpntga cakws, wmnom n` tur` wnaa igej ogpntga cakws ikrj vkagtnaj. Gt tmj ikij`t, tmjXTO„s akoga lkvjr`ij`t fjdt g`f okrpkrgtj fjdt grj vjry mnlm. Vmj `k`pjrckrin`lakg` rgtj ns `kt mnlm gt tmj ikij`t dut igy skk` rnsj rgpnfay. _n`oj tmj lakdga cn`g`ongaornsns g`f tmj XTO„s 6 trnaank` yug` stniuaus pgoeglj, wntm j`tjrprnsj fjdt jstnigtjf tkjxojjf 748% kc lrkss fkijstno prkfuot (LFX) g`f drkgf ik`jy suppay (I4)

giku`tn`l tk ikrj tmg` 7=8% kc LFX, tmj oku`try„s cn`g`onga vua`jrgdnanty mgs rnsj`snl`ncnog`tay.

Vmnrf, tmj XTO„s cn`g`onga igrejts smkuaf dj curtmjr andjrganzjf g`f g rgtnk`ga n`tjrjststruoturj iust dj orjgtjf. Vmj dj`omigre XTO n`tjrjst rgtj ns okiijronga dg`es„n`tjrjst rgtj k` 7-yjgr fjpksnts sjt dy tmj XDKO. Vmjrj ns `k smkrt-tjri n`tjrjst rgtj n`tmj n`tjrdg`e ik`jy igrejt tmgt og` dj usjf gs g dj`omigre n`tjrjst rgtj. Gt tmjsgij tnij, tmjrj ns `k wjaa-cu`otnk`n`l rnse-crjj ynjaf ourvj n` tmj lkvjr`ij`t dk`figrejt. Mj`oj, tmjrj ns `k wjaa-cu`otnk`n`l n`tjrjst rgtj systji. Gs g rjsuat, nt ns fnccnouattk prnoj cn`g`onga gssjts n` fnccjrj`t cn`g`onga igrejts rgtnk`gaay. Vmns, k` tkp kc g mnlmokrpkrgtj ajvjrglj rgtnk, ijg`s tmgt tmj XTO„s rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgonty ns wjge.Mj`oj, tmj cn`g`onga systji n` tmj ign`ag`f kc tmj XTO ns vua`jrgdaj tk orkss-dkrfjrspjouagtnvj gttgoes.

Ckurtm, tmj XTO„s jxomg`lj rgtj ns stnaa sudbjot tk crjquj`t n`tjrvj`tnk` dy tmj XDKO.\ntm g` n`cajxndaj jxomg`lj rgtj g`f kpj` ogpntga gooku`t, tmj XTO ns dku`f tk aksj ntsik`jtgry n`fjpj`fj`oj. Vmkulm tmj stjrnanzgtnk` pkanoy dy tmj XDKO wgs suoojsscua n`rjtgn`n`l tmj n`fjpj`fj`oj kc ik`jtgry pkanoy n` tmj pgst gt g ok`snfjrgdaj okst, wntmg` j`tnrjay kpj` ogpntga gooku`t, wmjtmjr tmj XDKO og` ign`tgn` ik`jtgryn`fjpj`fj`oj ns fkudtcua. Curtmjrikrj, tmj agoe kc cajxndnanty n` n`tjrjst g`f jxomg`ljrgtjs mgs garjgfy orjgtjf ok`fntnk`s ckr pjrsnstj`t n`tjrjst rgtj g`f jxomg`lj rgtjgrdntrglj gt tmj jxpj`sj kc tmj oku`try„s `gtnk`ga wjacgrj.

Cnctm, jijrln`l jok`kinjs grj u`fjr tmj smgfkw kc tmj Cjfjrga Tjsjrvj„s qug`tntgtnvjjgsn`l tgpjrn`l. Mnstkrnoga jxpjrnj`oj mgs smkw` tmgt wmj`jvjr n`tjrjst rgtjs n` tmj

Z_ rnsj, tmjrj wnaa dj igssnvj ogpntga kutcakws crki fjvjakpn`l oku`trnjs. Nc tmj tgpjrn`l

Page 19: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 19/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

7<

okn`onfjs wntm tmj XTO„s fnsig`tan`l kc nts ok`trka kvjr smkrt-tjri orkss dkrfjr ogpntgacakws, tmj ok`sjquj`ojs okuaf dj fnsgstrkus.

Agst dut `kt ajgst, tmj XTO„s jok`kino rjckris rjign` n`okipajtj, wntm prkpjrty rnlmts`kt yjt oajgray fjcn`jf. Ginf gidnlunty kvjr kw`jrsmnp g`f pjrvgsnvj okrruptnk`, tmj

crjj cakw kc ogpntga gorkss dkrfjrs okuaf dj usjf tk cgonantgtj ik`jy agu`fjrn`l g`fgssjt strnppn`l, wmnom n` tur` wkuaf n`ontj skonga tj`snk`. Vmjrjckrj, tmj okipajtnk` kc‑jok`kino systji rjckri’ ns kc utikst nipkrtg`oj gs g prjok`fntnk` ckr cuaa ogpntgagooku`t andjrganzgtnk`.

N` smkrt, djogusj kc tmj XTO„s ourrj`t jok`kino g`f cn`g`onga n`stgdnanty g`f tmjvkagtnanty kc lakdga cn`g`onga u`ojrtgn`ty, g` u`ckrjsjj` smkoe okuaf trnlljr agrlj-sogajogpntga canlmt, ajgfn`l tk snl`ncnog`t ourrj`oy fjvgaugtnk`, seyrkoejtn`l n`tjrjst rgtjs,durstn`l gssjt duddajs, dg`eruptoy g`f fjcguat ckr cn`g`onga g`f `k`cn`g`ongaj`tjrprnsjs, g`f, uatnigtjay, tmj okaagpsj kc tmj oku`try„s cn`g`onga systji. Vmkulm tmjprkdgdnanty ckr tmns wkrst-ogsj soj`grnk tk mgppj` ns vjry akw, nts ok`sjquj`ojs wkuafdj fjvgstgtn`l. Mj`oj, tmj XTO og``kt tgej tmns rnse. N` iy vnjw, tmj cuaa andjrganzgtnk`

kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t smkuaf dj tmj agst stjp kc jok`kino rjckris. Vmj XTO smkuafstnoe tk nts lrgfuganst gpprkgom. Djckrj cuaa andjrganzgtnk`, tmj andjrganzgtnk` kc tmj n`tjrjstrgtj g`f jxomg`lj rgtj smkuaf dj okipajtjf, gfjqugtj rnse ig`gljij`t ogpgontysmkuaf dj dunat up, g`f tmj igbkr pkn`ts kc vua`jrgdnanty n` tmj jok`kiy smkuaf djjanin`gtjf.

Vmj` wmgt grj tmj nipanogtnk`s kc tmj gdkvj fnsoussnk` k` ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`; Tj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns oaksjay rjagtjf wntmogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`, g`f ig`y nipkrtg`t stjps kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`grj ok`fntnk`ga k` tmj okrrjspk`fn`l fjvjakpij`t n` ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`. Nctmj XTO fkjs `kt goojajrgtj ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` tk lnvj `k`rjsnfj`ts crjjgoojss tk nts cn`g`onga igrejts, tmj n`oj`tnvj ckr `k`rjsnfj`ts tk mkaf tmj rj`in`dnwkuaf dj anintjf. Mj`oj, gctjr tmj n`ntnga jupmkrng, tmj pgoj kc rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns anejay tk sakw fkw`, gt ajgst n` tmj grjg kc usn`l tmj rj`in`dn gsn`vjstij`t ourrj`oy.

Fjspntj tmj j`tmusngsi smkw` dy tmj XDKO ckr spjjfn`l up tmj andjrganzgtnk` kcogpntga ok`trka n` tmj rjoj`t pgst, prgligtnsi prjvgnajf jvj`tugaay. N` cgot, n` tmj cnrstqugrtjr kc 487?, wmj` XTO j`tjrprnsjs glgn` wjrj usn`l ajttjrs kc orjfnt j`gdajf dytmj rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t somjij tk j`lglj n` n`tjrjst rgtj grdntrglj g`f ogusjfvjry agrlj ogpntga n`cakws, n`stjgf kc andjrganzn`l smkrt-tjri orkss-dkrfjr ogpntgaikvjij`t tk cgonantgtj tmj grdntrglj, tmj XDKO bkn`tay wntm tmj oustkis gutmkrntyoagipjf fkw` k` tmj gotnvntnjs n` g prkipt ig``jr. Gs g rjsuat, smkrt-tjri ogpntgan`cakws mgvj cgaaj` snl`ncnog`tay sn`oj Gprna 487?.

:. VMJ XTK_XJOV_ KC TJ@IN@DNN@VJT@GVNK@GANRGVNK@

:.7 Fnccjrj`t Tkutjs tk Tj`in`dn N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`

 Gookrfn`l tk g` updjgt ckrjogst dy tmj Dg`e kc Omn`g, tmj tktga giku`t kc rj`in`dntrgfj sjttajij`t wnaa rjgom 3.6 trnaank` yug`, g`f rj`in`dn fjpksnts g`f akg`s n` Mk`lEk`l, Omn`g wnaa dj :.7 trnaank` yug` g`f 7.? trnaank` yug`, rjspjotnvjay, n` 487:. Gt tmjsgij tnij, tmj nssug`oj kc rj`in`dn dk`fs wnaa rjgom 7% kc tmj XTO„s LFX,surpgssn`l 368 dnaank` yug`, g`f rj`in`dn CFN wnaa gooku`t ckr ?:% kc tktga CFN,

Page 20: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 20/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

7=

surpgssn`l :88 dnaank` yug` (Omj` 487?).  \mjtmjr tmns updjgt prjfnotnk` k` rj`in`dnn`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wnaa okij truj, k`ay tnij og` tjaa.

Vmjrj grj tmrjj pkssndaj kptnk`s tk curtmjr prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Cnrst,tk ok`tn`uj tmj nipajij`tgtnk` kc tmj krnln`ga rkgf igp2 rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t‟

rjoyoan`l ijomg`nsis‟rj`in`dn pkka n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g‟jxpkrt sjttajij`t, jto._jok`f, tk igej g igbkr gfbustij`t tk tmj krnln`ga rkgf igp2 tk prkvnfj rj`in`dnanqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf vng tmj ogpntga gooku`t n`stjgf kc tmj ourrj`t gooku`t.Vmnrf, tk andjrganzj tmj ogpntga gooku`t cuaay g`f ajt igrejt ckrojs mgvj cuaa pagy n`rjganzn`l rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

:.4 Vmj Xrkspjot ckr Zsj kc Tj`in`dn gs g Vrgfj _jttajij`tOurrj`oy

Vmj jxpjrnj`oj sk cgr smkws tmgt jxomg`lj rgtj g`f n`tjrjst rgtj grdntrgljs grj twkejy frnvjrs ckr tmj prklrjss n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. _n`oj agtj 4877, fuj tk tmj

smrn`eglj kc tmj XTO„s ourrj`t gooku`t surpaus g`f tmj prjogrnkus`jss kc ogpntgacakws, rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s mgvj wjgej`jf snl`ncnog`tay g`f tmjkccsmkrj‟k`smkrj rj`in`dn igrejt sprjgf mgs djokij vgrngdaj. N` tmj ckrjsjjgdajcuturj, jcckrts n` rjdgag`on`l tmj oku`try„s ourrj`t gooku`t grj anejay tk dj n`tj`sncnjfg`f tmj rj`in`dn jxomg`lj rgtj ikrj cajxndaj. Gs g rjsuat, jxomg`lj rgtj grdntrglj nsanejay tk djokij g ajss nipkrtg`t cgotkr n`cauj`on`l tmj usj kc rj`in`dn n` trgfjsjttajij`t.77

Mkwjvjr, djogusj tmj XTO„s trgfj pgrt`jrs grj anejay tk ok`tn`uj tk ign`tgn` akksjik`jtgry pkanoy, wmnaj tmj XTO ns anejay tk ign`tgn` g rjagtnvjay tnlmt ik`jtgry pkanoy n`tmj ckrjsjjgdaj cuturj, tmj n`tjrjst rgtj sprjgf djtwjj` tmj XTO g`f nts igbkr trgfjpgrt`jrs wnaa pjrsnst. Gatmkulm rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s mgvj djokij ajssstrk`l g`f tmj jxomg`lj rgtj vgrngtnk` agrljr, gs ak`l gs tmj XTO ok`tn`ujs tk ru` twn`surpausjs g`f tmj XDKO ok`tn`ujs tk n`tjrvj`j n` tmj ckrjnl` jxomg`lj igrejt tkok`tgn` tmj gpprjongtnk` kc tmj rj`in`dn, tmj n`tjrjst rgtj grdntrglj wnaa dj `kt k`ayprkcntgdaj, dut gask dgsnogaay rnse-crjj. N` rjoj`t yjgrs, jspjongaay n` 487?, rnse-crjjn`tjrjst rgtj grdntrglj dy XTO j`tjrprnsjs mgs djokij tmj ikst nipkrtg`t ok`trndutn`lcgotkr tk tmj n`orjgsj n` rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t

N` tmj ak`l ru`, tmj n`orjgsj n` rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t n` tmj cuturj wnaa dj fjonfjfign`ay dy twk cgotkrs. Vmj cnrst ns tmj XTO„s lrkwtm. Nc tmj jok`kiy og` ign`tgn` ntslrkwtm ikij`tui g`f stgdnanty n` tmj cuturj, `gturgaay, tmj XTO„s trgfj pgrt`jrs wnaa djn`orjgsn`lay n`tjrjstjf n` usn`l tmj rj`in`dn gs g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy. Vmj lrjgtjstgttrgotnk` ckr tmj XTO g`f nts trgfj pgrt`jrs tk usj tmj rj`in`dn ckr trgfj sjttajij`tsmkuaf dj tmj rjfuotnk` n` trg`sgotnk` oksts. Vmj sjok`f cgotkr ns tmj fkaagr„s cuturj

pksntnk`. Vmj wjgej`n`l kc tmj fkaagr ojrtgn`ay wnaa n`orjgsj tmj rj`in`dn„s gppjga,wmnom n` tur` wnaa n`orjgsj tmj omg`oj ckr tmj rj`in`dn tk dj usjf `kt k`ay gs g trgfjsjttajij`t ourrj`oy dut gask gs g vjmnoaj ourrj`oy.

N` rjoj`t yjgrs, jspjongaay gctjr tmj ckurtm qugrtjr kc 4877, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs gtrgfj sjttajij`t ourrj`oy mgs smkw` twk trj`fs. Cnrst, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn ckr trgfjsjttajij`t mgs ign`tgn`jf g strk`l lrkwtm ikij`tui, fuj tk grdntrglj gotnvntnjs gswjaa gs tmj XTO„s stjgfy lrkwtm.

_jok`f, tmj rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t‟tk‟rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t rgtnk mgsdjokij ikrj dgag`ojf. Jxpjrnj`oj stufnjs smkw tmgt tmj rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t- 77

 Ckr g ikrj fjtgnajf fjsornptnk` kc jxomg`lj rgtj grdntrglj gotnvntnjs sn`oj tmj n`trkfuotnk` kc tmjrj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t somjij, sjj ^u (4874).

Page 21: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 21/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

7>

tk rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t rgtnk ns mnlmay okrrjagtjf wntm tmj kccsmkrj‟k`smkrjrj`in`dn igrejt sprjgf (Rmg`l g`f ]u 4877). \mj` tmj trgfj sjttajij`t somjij wgs bust n`trkfuojf, tmj vkauij kc rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t wgs ok`snfjrgday agrljr tmg`tmgt kc rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t.74

 G ikrj dgag`ojf rj`in`dn sjttajij`t rgtnk ns gask rjagtjf `jlgtnvjay wntm tmj usj kc tmjrj`in`dn gs g stkrj kc vgauj, jspjongaay gs g` n`vjstij`t ourrj`oy. Djogusj kc tmj`grrkwn`l jxomg`lj rgtj sprjgf g`f tmj rjign`n`l rjstrnotnk` k` usn`l tmj rj`in`dn tkn`vjst n` rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf cn`g`onga gssjts, rj`in`dn gssjts mgvj djokij ajssgttrgotnvj ckr `k`rjsnfj`ts. Gs g rjsuat, tmj rj`in`dn tmgt mgf djj` n`bjotjf n`tkkccsmkrj igrejts vng rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t n` tmj kccsmkrj igrejt cku`f tmjnr wgydgoe tk tmj ign`ag`f vng rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t. Vmns jxpagn`s pgrtngaay wmy g ikrj

dgag`ojf rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t‟tk‟rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t rgtnk okn`onfjs wntmtmj stgl`gtnk` kc rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g.

Vmns sntugtnk` omg`ljf rgtmjr frgigtnogaay n` tmjckurtm qugrtjr kc 4877. Fuj tk ogpntga canlmt crki Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g tk tmj fjvjakpjfwkraf djogusj kc tmj jurkzk`j cn`g`onga ornsns, tmj kccsmkrj rj`in`dn djogij omjgpjrtmg` tmj k`smkrj rj`in`dn. Gs g rjsuat, n`stjgf kc sjaan`l tmj rj`in`dn ckr tmj fkaagr n`Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g vng rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t, XTO j`tjrprnsjs skaf tmj fkaagr ckrtmj rj`in`dn n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g vng rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t.

Nt og` dj jxpjotjf tmgt, n` tmj ak`ljr ru`, n` krfjr tk rjdgag`oj tmj jok`kiy, tmjXDKO wnaa rjfuoj nts n`tjrvj`tnk` n` tmj ckrjnl` jxomg`lj igrejt. Vmj omg`oj ckr tmjrj`in`dn jxomg`lj rgtj tk cauotugtj n` twk fnrjotnk`s wnaa n`orjgsj snl`ncnog`tay. Gs grjsuat, tmj grdntrglj wnaa `k ak`ljr dj rnse-crjj, wmnom n` tur` wnaa rjfuoj tmj usj kc tmjrj`in`dn gs sjttajij`t ourrj`oy. Nc skij fgy n` tmj cuturj, tmj smgrj kc rj`in`dnsjttajij`t n` tmj XTO„s tktga trgfj sjttajij`t stkps n`orjgsn`l kr jvj` cgaan`l, nt wnaa `ktdj surprnsn`l gt gaa.

\ntm igorkjok`kino cgotkrs pagyn`l g ajss nipkrtg`t rkaj, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn ckrtrgfj sjttajij`t wnaa dj fjonfjf dy cgotkrs gt tmj j`tjrprnsj g`f n`fustrnga ajvjas, wmnomns g tkpno tk wmnom wj wnaa rjtur` agtjr.

:.? Vmj Xrkspjot ckr Zsj kc Tj`in`dn gs g _tkrj kc Sgauj

Vmj sogaj kc tmj rj`in`dn usjf gs g stkrj kc vgauj‖ckr n`vjstn`l n` rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts dktm wntmn` g`f kutsnfj tmj XTO‖fjpj`fs k` tmj suppay kcrj`in`dn k`tk kccsmkrj igrejts, wmnom n` tur` ns fjonfjf ign`ay dy `jt n`bjotnk` kcrj`in`dn tmgt cakw n`tk rj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts vng rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`tgookrfn`l tk tmj XDKO„s ourrj`t rkgf igp ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

Djogusj tmj XTO ns g trgfj surpaus oku`try, nc dktm nts nipkrts g`f jxpkrts grj gaasjttajf n` rj`in`dn, tmj `jt n`bjotnk` kc rj`in`dn n`tk kccsmkrj igrejts mgs tk dj

`jlgtnvj. Z`fjr tmns onrouistg`oj, tk prkiktj tmj usj kc rj`in`dn gs g stkrj kc vgauj(n`vjstij`t ourrj`oy g`f ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rjsjrvjs) vng tmj trgfj sjttajij`t omg``jans nipkssndaj. Vk n`bjot rj`in`dn anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf, tmj giku`t kcrj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t iust dj agrljr tmg` tmgt kc rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t, g`ftmj fnccjrj`oj djtwjj` tmjsj twk giku`ts jqugas tmj `jw anqunfnty, wmnom n` tur` wnaatrg`sagtj n`tk tmj n`orjgsj n` tmj mkafn`ls kc rj`in`dn gssjts dy `k`rjsnfj`ts, ncfjig`f jxnsts. Crki tmj XTO„s pkn`t kc vnjw, okrrjspk`fn`l tk tmj n`orjgsj n` ntsrj`in`dn angdnantnjs, tmjrj iust dj g` jquga n`orjgsj n` tmj XTO„s ckrjnl` gssjts, tmjduae kc wmnom wkuaf dj ikst anejay Z_ lkvjr`ij`t sjourntnjs. Vmj XTO„s ckrjnl`angdnantnjs grj fj`kin`gtjf ikstay dy tmj rj`in`dn g`f nts ckrjnl` gssjts grj gaikst

74 Vmj gutmkr mgs fnsoussjf tmns nssuj jxtj`snvjay n` ktmjr wrntn`ls. _jj, ckr jxgipaj, ^u (4874).

Page 22: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 22/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

48

jxoausnvjay fj`kin`gtjf n` ckrjnl` ourrj`onjs, g`f n` tmj Z_ fkaagr n` pgrtnouagr. Vmjcurtmjr n`orjgsj n` nts rj`in`dn angdnantnjs g`f fkaagr gssjts ijg`s tmgt tmj ourrj`oystruoturj kc tmj XTO„s ckrjnl` angdnantnjs g`f gssjts mgs wkrsj`jf curtmjr. Vmns ns gcu`fgij`tga prkdaji wntm tmj XDKO„s rkgf igp ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

Curtmjrikrj, nc rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s cgfj gs g rjsuat kc tmj XTO„srjdgag`on`l, `k`rjsnfj`ts„ fjsnrj tk mkaf rj`in`dn gssjts wnaa cgfj okrrjspk`fn`lay. N`jgray 4877, ig`y ajgfn`l n`vjstij`t dg`es prjfnotjf tmgt dy tmj j`f kc 4874, rj`in`dnfjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g wkuaf surpgss 7 trnaank`‟4 trnaank` yug`. @kw, wjaa n`tk487?, tmj oustkijr rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g grj stnaa an`ljrn`l djtwjj`388 dnaank` yug` g`f <88 dnaank` yug`.7?

Vmj rj`in`dn aj`fn`l g`f dkrrkwn`l gotnvntnjs n` kccsmkrj igrejts og` ajgf tk g`n`orjgsj n` tmj rj`in`dn pkka vng rj`in`dn ik`jtgry iuatnpanjrs n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g krktmjr rj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts. Vmj giku`t kc anqunfnty, mkwjvjr, ns ok`strgn`jfuatnigtjay dy tmj `jt n`bjotnk` kc rj`in`dn. Nc tmj `jt n`bjotnk` tk g` kccsmkrj igrejt cgnastk n`orjgsj, wmnom ijg`s tmgt tmj ‑rj`in`dn ik`jtgry dgsj’ n` tmj kccsmkrj igrejt ns

lnvj`, tmj sokpj ckr tmj rj`in`dn pkka tk n`orjgsj wnaa dj vjry anintjf.Mjrj tmj rkutj kc n`bjotn`l rj`in`dn vng tmj ogpntga gooku`t sjjis ikrj prkinsn`l.Vmgt ns, nc tmj XTO og``kt prkvnfj rj`in`dn anqunfnty dy ru``n`l g ourrj`t gooku`tfjcnont, nt og` fk sk dy ru``n`l g ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont. N` cgot, djckrj 7>=7, tmj Z_prkvnfjf fkaagr anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf ign`ay vng g` ‑kccnonga gooku`t fjcnont’‖ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont rgtmjr tmg` ourrj`t gooku`t fjcnont.

Ckr g `kriga ourrj`t gooku`t surpaus oku`try, nt ru`s g ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont. \mj` ntn`bjots nts kw` ourrj`oy n`tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf dy ru``n`l g ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont,`krigaay, dkrrkwjrs wnaa usj tmj ourrj`oy tk duy prkfuots jxpkrtjf dy tmj oku`try. Gs grjsuat, `kt k`ay tmj oku`try„s ckrjnl` gssjts wnaa dj fj`kin`gtjf n` nts kw` ourrj`oy, dutgask pgrt kc nts jxpkrts wnaa dj sjttajf n` nts kw` ourrj`oy.

Vmj XTO ns g twn` surpaus (ourrj`t gooku`t g`f ogpntga gooku`t) oku`try. Vk n`bjotanqunfnty n`tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf og` ajgf tk ikrj okipanogtjf omg`ljs n` tmj ourrj`oystruoturj kc tmj oku`try„s ckrjnl` gssjts g`f angdnantnjs. Mkwjvjr, g vjry nipkrtg`tgfvg`tglj kc usn`l tmj ogpntga gooku`t tk n`bjot rj`in`dn anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmjwkraf ns tmgt nt wnaa n`orjgsj rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts g`f ajgf tk tmj niprkvjij`tn` tmj XTO„s ourrj`oy struoturj kc gssjts g`f angdnantnjs. Gt tmj sgij tnij, nt wnaaprkiktj tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g` jxpkrt sjttajij`t ourrj`oy. Ojrtgn`ay, wmnajusn`l tmj ogpntga gooku`t tk n`bjot rj`in`dn anqunfnty, tmj rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`tomg``ja og` dj ign`tgn`jf, dut nts nipgot k` tmj ourrj`oy struoturj kc tmj XTO„sckrjnl` gssjts g`f angdnantnjs smkuaf `kt dj nl`krjf.

Vmj XTO og` prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` dy aj`fn`l rj`in`dn tk ckrjnl`

dkrrkwjrs. Vmj Xg`fg dk`fs g`f rj`in`dn kutdku`f fnrjot n`vjstij`t (TKFN) grjlkkf vjmnoajs ckr suom g` j`fjgvkr. Tjoj`tay, kccnongas crki tmj XDKO jipmgsnzjftmgt tmj tmrust kc tmj XTO„s ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` gt tmj ourrj`t stglj ns tkcgonantgtj XTO j`tjrprnsjs„ kutdku`f fnrjot n`vjstij`t (KFN). Vmj In`nstry kcOkiijroj ns tgen`l gotnk`s tk omg`lj tmj ruajs g`f rjluagtnk`s tk suppkrt KFN. VmjXTO og` gask duy ikrj Xg`fg dk`fs g`f igej ikrj ok`trndutnk`s tk tmj NIC g`fktmjr ejystk`j n`tjr`gtnk`ga krlg`nzgtnk`s.

7? Ktmjr cgotkrs igy gask ok`trndutj tk tmj stgl`gtnk` kc rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Gik`l

tmji ns tmj fjvjakpij`t kc ktmjr kccsmkrj oj`tjrs, gik`l ktmjrs n` Ak`fk`, _n`lgpkrj, g`fVgnpjn,Omn`g. Ikrj cn`g`onga n`struij`ts ckr rj`in`dn n`vjstij`t igy gask dj g ok`trndutn`l cgotkr.

Page 23: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 23/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

47

Vmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji mgs djj` smjavjf ckr g wmnaj, dut tmjnfjg ns stnaa ganvj g`f og` djokij cgsmnk`gdaj glgn`. Vmj XTO smkuaf ok`tn`uj tmjjcckrt tk prkiktj tmj rjckri kc tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga ik`jtgry systji dy n`bjotn`l rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf cu`fs tk ejystk`j n`tjr`gtnk`ga krlg`nzgtnk`s g`f orjgtj ok`fntnk`s ckrigen`l tmj rj`in`dn g okipk`j`t kc tmj _FT.

Ojrtgn`ay, tmns rkutj kc n`bjotn`l rj`in`dn anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf vng tmj ogpntgagooku`t mgs nts kw` prkdajis. Cnrst, djogusj kc pgtm fjpj`fj`oj, gctjr 6 yjgrs kcusn`l nipkrt sjttajij`t tk n`bjot rj`in`dn anqunfnty tk kccsmkrj igrejts, tmj fjonsnk`igejrs igy dj rjauotg`t tk omg`lj okursj, djogusj kc tmj okst kc tmj omg`lj._jok`f, gs ij`tnk`jf, tmj XTO igy `kt dj gdaj tk ok`tn`uj tk ru` g ourrj`t gooku`tsurpaus, wmnom ns jqunvgaj`t tk sgyn`l tmgt nt igy `kt dj gdaj tk ok`tn`uj tk prkvnfj `jtrj`in`dn anqunfnty tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkraf vng nts ogpntga gooku`t, djogusj nts gdnanty tkru` g ogpntga gooku`t fjcnont wnaa dj anintjf. Agst dut `kt ajgst, tmj duae kc tmj XTO„s KFNns fjstn`jf tk tmj Inffaj Jgst g`f @krtm Gcrnog, wmjrj onvna wgr g`f pkantnoga ok`canotigy jrupt gt g`y tnij. N` smkrt, tmj pgtm kc n`bjotn`l rj`in`dn n`tk tmj rjst kc tmj wkrafg`f j`okurgln`l ckrjnl` n`vjstkrs tk mkaf ikrj rj`in`dn gssjts vng tmj rkutj kc

jxpkrtn`l ogpntga ns gask dku`f tk dj duipy.

Vmj XTO„s cn`g`onga igrejt ns garjgfy vjry kpj` tk CFN g`f ktmjr ckris kc ak`l-tjriorjfnt. Ak`l-tjri ogpntga fkjs `kt `jjf tk usj kccsmkrj igrejts tk jvgfj ogpntgaok`trkas. N`tjr`gtnk`ga ogpntga tmgt sjjes tk j`tjr tmj XTO vng kccsmkrj igrejts vjryanejay ns smkrt-tjri spjouagtnvj ogpntga wntm tmj gni kc prkcntn`l crki n`tjrjst rgtj g`fjxomg`lj rgtj grdntrglj. Nrk`nogaay, gs g rjsuat kc tmj XDKO„s curtmjr kpj`n`l up kc tmjXTO„s cn`g`onga igrejt tk n`tjr`gtnk`ga n`vjstkrs, tmj rkaj kc kccsmkrj igrejts wnaafnin`nsm okrrjspk`fn`lay.

Vmj XTO og` surjay prkvnfj rj`in`dn anqunfnty vng ourrj`oy swgps wntm ktmjr oj`trgadg`es. Vmj ourrj`oy swgps grj usjcua ijgsurjs ckr rjfuon`l tmj fjpj`fj`oj k` tmjZ_ fkaagr ckr anqunfnty. Vmjsj swgps grj smkrt- kr ijfnui-tjri dnagtjrga anqunfntygrrg`ljij`ts, mkwjvjr, wmnom wnaa djokij u`wku`f skk`jr kr agtjr. Ourrj`oy swgpswnaa `kt pkst g omgaaj`lj tk tmj fkin`gtnk` kc tmj Z_ fkaagr. Fjspntj gaa tmj vnrtujs kc tmjourrj`oy swgps, nt ns fnccnouat tk nigln`j mkw vng tmns rkutj tmj XTO og` ok`tn`ukusaysuppay anqunfnty g`f prkiktj rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` n` g snl`ncnog`t wgy.

 G` u`jxpjotjf fjvjakpij`t n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` n` rjoj`t yjgrs ns tmjsnl`ncnog`t n`orjgsj n` tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs rjsjrvj ourrj`oy dy ckrjnl` oj`trgadg`es. Vmns ns `kt k`ay g rjcajotnk` kc tmj XTO„s jok`kino strj`ltm dut gask g rjsuat kctmj wjgej`n`l stgtus kc trgfntnk`ga rjsjrvj ourrj`onjs suom gs tmj Z_ fkaagr g`f tmjjurk. Vmns nipanjs tmgt tmj rj`in`dn„s jxpg`snk` jcckrts wnaa gask dj n`cauj`ojf dy tmjomg`lj n` tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ga stg`fn`l kc tmj Z_ fkaagr. Vmj ikrj ourrj`t wrg`lajs n`\gsmn`ltk` tmgt jrkfj tmj ok`cnfj`oj, tmj ikrj sokpj ckr tmj rj`in`dn tk igej

n`rkgfs n`tk djokin`l g` n`tjr`gtnk`ga rjsjrvj ourrj`oy.

:. 6  Inorkjok`kino C ku`fgtnk` ckr T j`in`dn

N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`

 Gookrfn`l tk g survjy dgsjf k` <=4 nipkrtjrs g`f jxpkrtjrs n` tmj ign`ag`f kc tmjXTO n` Cjdrugry 4874, tmj iktnvgtnk`s kc tmj j`tjrprnsjs ckr tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gsg sjttajij`t ourrj`oy n` krfjr kc nipkrtg`oj grj rjfuotnk` n` ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rnse,rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s, cn`g`onga dj`jcnts, kpjrgtnk`ga ok`vj`nj`oj,oku`tjrpgrty rjqujsts, g`f ktmjrs (Drjwjr 4874).

 Gookrfn`l tk g M_DO rjpkrt (487?), ‑tmj ign` dj`jcnts ontjf dy kur oustkijrs grj2

janin`gtn`l ckrjnl` jxomg`lj rnses g`f oksts (Ign`ag`f-dgsjf pgrty)5 goouiuagtn`l

Page 24: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 24/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

44

rj`in`dn n` jxpjotgtnk` kc gpprjongtnk` (jxpkrtn`l pgrty)5 cgstjr g`f snipajr sjttajij`tfuj tk tmj janin`gtnk` kc C] prkojssjs.’

 G` nipkrtg`t qujstnk` ns tmgt nc rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk`s g`f/kr n`tjrjst rgtj sprjgffnsgppjgr, wnaa XTO nipkrtjrs ok`tn`uj tk usj rj`in`dn tk puromgsj fkaagrs n` Mk`l

Ek`l, Omn`g g`f mj`oj suppay j`kulm anqunfnty ckr rj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts g`fj`gdaj tmj rj`in`dn tk pagy tmj rkaj kc g stkrj kc vgauj;

 G sninagr qujstnk` og` dj gsejf gdkut tmj fjig`f ckr rj`in`dn n` kccsmkrj igrejts2 Nctmj rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s g`f n`tjrjst rgtj sprjgf djtwjj` tmj XTO„sdj`omigre n`tjrjsts g`f n`tjr`gtnk`ga dj`omigre n`tjrjsts fnsgppjgr, wnaa ckrjnl`n`vjstkrs stnaa mgvj strk`l fjig`f ckr rj`in`dn n` rj`in`dn kccsmkrj igrejts;

Fjspntj gaa tmj cg`cgrj gdkut tmj goojajrgtnk` kc ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`, nt ns anejaytmgt tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t jvj`tugaay wnaa ok`tn`uj tk gfkpt tmj lrgfuganst gpprkgom tkogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`. Gt tmj sgij tnij, gs g rjsuat kc tmj sakwfkw` kc tmjoku`try„s jok`kiy g`f tmj okrrjotnk` kc nidgag`ojs, tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g`n`vknoj g`f sjttajij`t ourrj`oy wnaa dj fjonfjf n`orjgsn`lay dy tmj spjoncno `gturj kc

XTO cnris, n`fustrnga krlg`nzgtnk`s, dusn`jss ikfjas, typjs kc prkfuots trgfjf,dgrlgn`n`l pkwjr kc XTO cnris g`f tmjnr oku`tjrpgrts, g`f sk k`. Ckaakwn`l tmj lrgfugakpj`n`l kc tmj ogpntga gooku`t, rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wnaa ok`tn`uj tk igejprklrjss, dut pjrmgps gt g iuom sakwjr pgoj tmg` pjkpaj mgvj jxpjotjf.

Tj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wnaa `k ak`ljr dj frnvj` dy grdntrglj. Tgtmjr, nt wnaa djfjonfjf dy tmj djmgvnkr kc j`tjrprnsjs. N` ktmjr wkrfs, k`ay wmj` jvj` wntmkutomg``jas ckr rjoyoan`l pjkpaj grj stnaa n`tjrjstjf n` usn`l rj`in`dn ckr trgfj sjttajij`t,og` tmj usj kc rj`in`dn gs g sjttajij`t ourrj`oy dj sustgn`gdaj.

Vmjrj grj g agrlj `uidjr kc tmjkrjtnoga g`f jipnrnoga stufnjs jxpakrn`l tmj sjajotnk` kcg` n`vknoj ourrj`oy (Lrgssig` 7><?5 Lkafdjrl g`f Vnaaj 488=5 Crndjrl g`f \nag`fjr488=5 Egwgn 7>>35 Ntk jt ga. 4878). Gookrfn`l tk tmjsj stufnjs, cgotkrs k` n`fustrnga g`fj`tjrprnsj ajvjas, suom gs g oku`try„s n`fustrnga struoturj, okrpkrgtnk` krlg`nzgtnk`s,j`tjrprnsj dusn`jss ikfjas g`f igrejtn`l strgtjlnjs, typjs kc prkfuots gvgnagdaj, g`ffjvjakpij`t kc rjajvg`t cn`g`onga igrejts, igy cu`fgij`tgaay n`cauj`oj g` j`tjrprnsj„somknoj kc n`vknoj ourrj`oy g`f mj`oj sjttajij`t ourrj`oy.76

 Gs ckr tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g` n`vjstij`t g`f rjsjrvj ourrj`oy, n`stjgf kcfjpj`fn`l k` grdntrglj kppkrtu`ntnjs g`f kccsmkrj igrejts, u`fjr g` kpj` ogpntgagooku`t, fjig`f ckr rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts wnaa fjpj`f k` ikrj cu`fgij`tga

ok`fntnk`s, gs Jnomj`lrjj` (487?, 76>) mgs pkn`tjf kut, n`oaufn`l ‑UgY` n`tjr`gtnk`gaourrj`oy tmgt ns wnfjay usjf n` prnvgtj okiijronga g`f cn`g`onga trg`sgotnk`s g`f mjafdy oj`trga dg`es g`f lkvjr`ij`ts gs rjsjrvjs mgs tmrjj jssj`tnga gttrndutjs2 sogaj,stgdnanty, g`f anqunfnty.’

Nt smkuaf dj rjokl`nzjftmgt kvjr tmj pgst cjw yjgrs, gatmkulm g agrlj `uidjr kc pgpjrs mgvj djj` prkfuojfwntm rjlgrf tk rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`, cjw stufnjs mgvj djj` ok`fuotjf k` tmjinorkjok`kino cku`fgtnk` kc tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs g` n`vknoj g`f sjttajij`tourrj`oy. Mkpjcuaay, stufnjs k` tmns nssuj wnaa okij kut lrgfugaay.

Vmjrj ns `k fkudt tmgt tk ijjt tmjsj ok`fntnk`s grj tnij-ok`suin`l. Gt tmj ikij`t,tmj XTO„s ikst urlj`t tgses grj rjgfbustij`t kc nts jok`kino struoturj, rjdgag`on`l kcnts jok`kiy, curtmjr cn`g`onga rjckri, g`f andjrganzgtnk` kc n`tjrjst rgtjs g`f tmjjxomg`lj rgtj. Tj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` smkuaf dj put n` g` gpprkprngtj pagoj.Mgstj fkjs `kt drn`l suoojss.

76

 Tjoj`tay, Ntk jt ga. (4878) mgvj cku`f tmgt ckr ikst Bgpg`jsj cnris, tmj sgij ourrj`oy ns usjf ckr dktmn`vknon`l g`f sjttajij`t.

Page 25: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 25/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

4?

3. OK@OAZ_NK@

Vmj jxpjrnj`oj sn`oj tmj agu`om kc rj`in`dn trgfj sjttajij`t somjijs n` 488> smkwstmgt rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` g`f n`tjrjst rgtj sprjgf grj tmj twk ejy frnvjrs ckr tmj

prklrjss n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Tj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t j`gdajf rj`in`dntk cakw n`tk Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g g`f jstgdansm g rj`in`dn pkka tmjrj djogusj kc tmjokjxnstj`oj kc twk jxomg`lj rgtjs ckr tmj rj`in`dn. \mj`jvjr tmj rj`in`dn ns u`fjrgpprjongtnk` prjssurj, anqunfnty cakws n`tk Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g. Kwn`l tk gpprjongtnk`jxpjotgtnk`s g`f tmj kppkrtu`ntnjs ckr n`vjstij`t n` rj`in`dn-fj`kin`gtjf gssjts n`tmj ign`ag`f kc tmj XTO wmnom mgvj mnlmjr rjtur`s, rj`in`dn fjpksnts n` Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g g`f rj`in`dn dk`f nssug`oj n`orjgsjf vjry rgpnfay.

Mkwjvjr, sn`oj agtj 4877, fuj tk tmj smrn`eglj kc tmj XTO„s ourrj`t gooku`t surpausg`f tmj prjogrnkus`jss kc ogpntga cakws, rj`in`dn gpprjongtnk` jxpjotgtnk`s wjgej`jffrgigtnogaay. Gs rjsuat kc g `grrkwn`l kr rjvjrsn`l kc tmj kccsmkrj‟k`smkrj rj`in`dnigrejt sprjgf, wmnaj XTO nipkrtjrs djogij ajss n`tjrjstjf n` puromgsn`l Z_ fkaagrs

n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g, rjsnfj`ts n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g wjrj `k ak`ljr jgljr tk mkafrj`in`dn fjpksnts.

Fjspntj tmj fnsgppkn`tij`t n` tmj n`orjgsj n` tmj rj`in`dn pkka g`f tmj ajss tmg`sgtnscgotkry n`orjgsj n` rj`in`dn dk`f nssug`oj n` Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g, rj`in`dn trgfjsjttajij`t mgs ok`tn`ujf tk n`orjgsj. \mnaj tmj smjjr snzj kc tmj XTO„s trgfj g`fniprkvjij`ts n` trg`sgotnk`ga ok`vj`nj`oj dy usn`l tmj rj`in`dn ckr sjttajij`t iustdj g ejy ok`trndutn`l cgotkr, n`tjrjst rgtj grdntrglj gask pagys g` nipkrtg`t rkaj. Vmjfjoan`j n` tmj kccsmkrj‟k`smkrj rj`in`dn igrejt sprjgf ok`trndutjs tk tmj jijrlj`ojkc g ikrj dgag`ojf rj`in`dn nipkrt sjttajij`t‟tk‟rj`in`dn jxpkrt sjttajij`t rgtnk.

 G` u`jxpjotjf fjvjakpij`t n` rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` n` rjoj`t yjgrs ns tmjsnl`ncnog`t n`orjgsj n` tmj usj kc tmj rj`in`dn gs rjsjrvj ourrj`oy dy ckrjnl` oj`trga

dg`es. Vmns ns `kt k`ay g rjcajotnk` kc tmj XTO„s jok`kino strj`ltm dut gask g rjsuat kctmj wjgej`n`l stgtus kc trgfntnk`ga rjsjrvj ourrj`onjs suom gs tmj Z_ fkaagr g`f tmjjurk. Vmns nipanjs tmgt rj`in`dn jxpg`snk` jcckrts wnaa gask dj n`cauj`ojf dy tmj omg`ljn` tmj prjcjrj`oj ckr tmj Z_ fkaagr.

 G cu`fgij`tga ok`strgn`t ckr rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` ns tmj XTO„s ogpntga ok`trkas.Vmj qujstnk` cgon`l tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t gt tmj ikij`t ns wmjtmjr nt smkuaf gdg`fk`tmj rjign`n`l ok`trkas kvjr smkrt-ru` orkss-dkrfjr ogpntga cakws. Nt sjjis tmgt tmjXDKO mgs akst pgtnj`oj wntm tmj sakw prklrjss n` fkijstno rjckris, g`f mj`oj nspusmn`l ckr tmj dnl-dg`l gpprkgom n` ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` tk ckroj tmkulmiuom `jjfjf n`tjr`ga omg`ljs. Ojrtgn`ay, ktmjr tmn`ls djn`l jquga, ogpntga gooku`tandjrganzgtnk` wnaa lnvj g` jxtrg dkkst tk rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`.

Mkwjvjr, n` iy vnjw, djckrj cuaay kpj`n`l nts ogpntga gooku`t g`f igen`l tmj rj`in`dncrjjay ok`vjrtndaj, tmj XTO smkuaf cnrst put nts kw` mkusj n` krfjr. Ckr jxgipaj,igorkjok`kino stgdnanty mgs tk dj gomnjvjf, tmj mnlm ajvjrglj rgtnk smkuaf dj rjfuojf,g rgtnk`ga g`f cajxndaj n`tjrjst rgtj struoturj iust dj orjgtjf, rnse ig`gljij`togpgonty gorkss n`fustrnjs smkuaf dj jstgdansmjf, g`f n`tjrvj`tnk` n` tmj ckrjnl`jxomg`lj igrejt in`ninzjf. Gaa kc tmns tgejs tnij. \ntmkut okipajtn`l tmjsj tgses cnrst,mgsty ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk` okuaf ajgf tk fnrj ok`sjquj`ojs.

N wkuaf pkstuagtj tmgt fuj tk tmj mnlm rnses n`vkavjf, tmj XTO lkvjr`ij`t jvj`tugaaywnaa ign`tgn` g lrgfuganst gpprkgom wntm rjlgrf tk ogpntga gooku`t andjrganzgtnk`. Mj`oj,rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wnaa ok`tn`uj tk j`bky stjgfy prklrjss, dut tmjrj wnaa dj `ksj`sgtnk`ga fjvjakpij`ts. Gctjr tmj ogpntga gooku`t mgs djj` cuaay andjrganzjf g`f

rj`in`dn fy`ginos grj `k ak`ljr frnvj` dy grdntrglj, djsnfjs tmj ok`tn`ukus

Page 26: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 26/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

46

jxpg`snk` kc tmj jok`kiy, tmj prklrjss kc rj`in`dn n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` wnaa fjpj`fn`orjgsn`lay k` tmj spjoncno `gturj kc XTO cnris, n`fustrnga krlg`nzgtnk`s, dusn`jssikfjas, typjs kc prkfuots trgfjf, g`f dgrlgn`n`l pkwjr kc XTO cnris g`f tmjnroku`tjrpgrts. Vmjrj ns `k fkudt wmgtskjvjr tmgt tmj rj`in`dn wnaa djokij g igbkrn`tjr`gtnk`ga ourrj`oy, dut tmj n`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` bkur`jy ns g ak`l k`j. Vmj XTO nsk`ay bust gt tmj djln``n`l. 

Page 27: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 27/28

Page 28: How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

8/13/2019 How Far Can Renminbi Internationalization Go?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-far-can-renminbi-internationalization-go 28/28

 GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr 637 ^u

Egwgn, Igsgmnrk, g`f _mn`bn Vgegln. 4878. G _urvjy kc tmj Antjrgturj k` Ig`gln`lOgpntga Cakws. N` Ig`gln`l Ogpntga Cakws, jfntjf dy Igsgmnrk Egwgn g`f IgrnkD. Agidjrtj. Omjatj`mgi, ZE g`f @krtmgiptk`, IG2 Jfwgrf Jalgr. pp. 63‟<4.

Erulig`, Xgua. 488>. Omn`g„s Fkaagr Vrgp. @jw ^kre Vnijs. 6 Gprna.

Ig, Bu`. 4874. Tkgfigp ckr TID N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk`. Gsng Jok`kinos _pjonga . 4:Bu`j. Mk`l Ek`l, Omn`g2 Fjutsomj Dg`e GL.

Kogipk, Bksj G`tk`nk, _mgrn _pnjlja, g`f Bksjpm J. _tnlantz. 488=. Ogpntga IgrejtAndjrganzgtnk` g`f Fjvjakpij`t. N` Ogpntga Igrejt Andjrganzgtnk` g`fFjvjakpij`t , jfntjf dy Bksj G. Kogipk g`f Bksjpm J. _tnlantz. @jw ^kre2Kxckrf Z`nvjrsnty Xrjss. pp. 7‟6<.

Kstry, Bk`gtmg` F., Gtnsm T. Lmksm, Igroks Omgik`, g`f Igmvgsm _. Wurjsmn. 4874Vkkas ckr Ig`gln`l Cn`g`onga-_tgdnanty Tnses crki Ogpntga N`cakws. Bkur`ga kcN`tjr`gtnk`ga Jok`kinos ==(4)2 68<‟647.

Kstry, Bk`gtmg` F., Gtnsm T. Lmksm, Egra Mgdjrijnjr, Igroks Omgik`, Igmvgsm _.

Wurjsmn, g`f Fj``ns D._. Tjn`mgrft. 4878. Ogpntga N`cakws2 Vmj Tkaj kcOk`trkas. NIC _tgcc Xksntnk` @ktj. \gsmn`ltk`, FO2 NIC.

Kstry, Bk`gtmg` F., Gtnsm T. Lmksm, Egra Mgdjrijnjr, Auo Agjvj`, Igroks Omgik`,Igmvgsm _. Wurjsmn, g`f G``gigrng Ekej`y`j. 4877. NIC _tgcc Fnsoussnk`@ktjs @k. 77/83. \gsmn`ltk`, FO2 NIC.

_mj`l, _k`omj`l. 4874g. Omn`g _tg`fs n` tmj Xjrnkf kc _trgtjlno Kppkrtu`nty ckrOgpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk`. Omn`g Fgnay . 46 Cjdrugry.

‖‖‖. 4874d. Ok`fntnk`s ckr Omn`g„s Ogpntga Gooku`t Andjrganzgtnk` Mgvj Igturjf. Grjpkrt pudansmjf dy tmj Xjkpaj„s Dg`e kc Omn`g. 4? Cjdrugry. Djnbn`l2 XDKO.

Vgegln, _mn`bn. 488>. N`tjr`gtnk`gansn`l tmj ^j`, 7>=6‟488?2 Z`cn`nsmjf Glj`fg kr

Inssnk` Nipkssndaj; Xgpjr prjpgrjf ckr tmj DN_/DkE sjin`gr k` Ourrj`oyN`tjr`gtnk`gansgtnk`2 Ajssk`s crki tmj Lakdga Cn`g`onga Ornsns g`f Xrkspjots ckrtmj Cuturj n` Gsng g`f tmj Xgoncno. _jkua, Tjpudano kc Ekrjg. 7>‟48 Igrom.

Vmj \gaa _trjjt Bkur`ga . 4877. Ckrjnl` Jxomg`lj (G _pjonga Tjpkrt) ‟ \jrj Omn`g'sAjgfjrs Ok``jf; 4 Bu`j.

\u, ]nkgan`l. 4877. Vkp Agyjr Fjsnl` g`f tmj Tjckri kc Cn`g`onga _ystji. _mg`lmgn_journty . 4< Gulust.

 ]n`mug. 488>. Xrjinjr \krrnjs gdkut _gcjty kc Omn`jsj Gssjts n` Z_. 7? Igrom.

^u, ^k`lfn`l. 488=. Gijrnog` Lkvjr`ij`t Dk`fs g`f Xg`fg Dk`fs. Bkur`ga kcCn`g`oj g`f Jok`kinos (Ogn Bn`l Rg Rmn ) 4:. = Fjojidjr.

‖‖‖. 4874. Tjvnsntn`l tmj N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kc tmj ^ug`. GFDN \kren`l Xgpjr_jrnjs ?33. Buay. Vkeyk2 Gsng` Fjvjakpij`t Dg`e N`stntutj.

^u, ^k`lfn`l, g`f Mgnmk`l Lgk. 4877. Vmj N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` kc tmj TID. N` Gsngg`f Omn`g n` tmj Lakdga Jok`kiy , jfntjf dy ^n`-\k`l Omju`l g`f Luk`g` Ig.@jw Bjrsjy/Ak`fk`/_n`lgpkrj/Djnbn`l/_mg`lmgn/Mk`l Ek`l,Omn`g/Vgnpjn,Omn`g2 \kraf _onj`tncno. pp. 77>‟47=.

Rmg`l, Dn`, g`f Wnyug` ]u. 4877. TID N`tjr`gtnk`ganzgtnk` n` tmj Ok`tjxt kc Jxomg`ljTgtj g`f Ogpntga Gooku`t Ok`trka. Z`pudansmjf. (n` Omn`jsj).

Rmku, ]ngkomug`. 488>. Tjckri tmj N`tjr`gtnk`ga Ik`jtgry _ystji. Jssgy pudansmjfk` tmj Xjkpaj„s Dg`e kc Omn`g wjdsntj. 4? Igrom.