How do land use, natural disturbances, and climate change affect three key sets of ecosystem services: carbon and nutrient dynamics, biodiversity, and

How do land use, natural disturbances, and climate change affect three key sets of ecosystem services: carbon and nutrient dynamics, biodiversity, and hydrology?

The Andrews LTER program has been guided by a common Central Question for over a decade:

In LTER6 we will maintain this central question, with a few modifications:

This interpretation of the Central Question is illustrated in the following slide

• emphasis on climate change/climate variability as a driver

• inclusion of the influence of topography on relationships between drivers and responders

• connection of the natural science and the human domain via ecosystem services, and feedbacks from human domain to the natural sciences

• emphasis on of multiple interactions among drivers and responders and system feedbacks

Carbon andNutrient Cycles Responders

Climate

Land Use

Influences of topography

Drivers

Disturbance

BiodiversityHydrology

Ecosystem services Human behavior

Note that in the previous slide, the “natural science” interactions are congregated into a box. For now, for the sake of communication, let’s call this the “natural science box”.

The following slide shows the same conceptual organization but provides additional specific details within each of the main categories that we will focus on.


Climateamount, timing and phase of precip;Average and variability in temperature

Land Useforest structure & age/species; albedo; interception


Drivers

Disturbancefloods; fire; pathogensinsect pests

Biodiversitybiodiversity; biogeography;genomics;phenology

Hydrologystreamflow amount, timing and temperature; hillslope flowpaths

Ecosystem serviceswood production; water quality/quantity; forest aesthetics &recreation, other (tbd)

Human behaviorforest land management; other public responses (tbd)

1. Project future responses of biodiversity, hydrology and carbon/nutrient cycles at Andrews under different climate change scenarios, considering the influences of land use, disturbance and topography.

2. Provide tools (models, demonstrations) to forest managers to enhance sustainable forest management in alternate climate scenarios; project feedbacks from forest management alternatives on forest structure.

3. Develop a conceptual organization to connect ecosystem services from mid-Cascades forests to the human societies in the McKenzie and Willamette Valleys under climate change/land use change/disturbance scenarios and conduct pilot work to promote additional funding from other sources.

Three Proposed Goals for LTER6:

Note that the spatial domain of Goal 1 is primarily the Andrews Forest; the spatial domain of Goal 2 is primarily the Blue River basin (and to some extent, the entire Willamette National Forest); the spatial domain of Goal 3 is all of the above plus the McKenzie and Willamette Valleys.

In order to translate this conceptual organization into units that can be developed for a proposal, and subsequently into components of a six-year project, we will organize interdisciplinary working groups. (Or if we were to call them “working interdisciplinary groups” they could be wigs. Hmm. Well, your creativity in coming up with good acronyms here and elsewhere is welcome!)

Six permanent working groups and one temporary working group are proposed and described in the following slides. (Four working groups for Goal 1, one for Goal 2, and one for Goal 3; the temporary group is needed to establish climate scenarios). It is important to recognize that from the perspective of the overall concept, these units are artificial – the concept is an integrated whole, not a bunch of units. But everybody can’t do everything …

The six working groups described here will likely change somewhat with time based on our discussions in the coming weeks. We will be asking people to “self assign” to the working groups. People are invited, indeed encouraged, to participate in more than one working group.

Also note that

1. It will be essential to maintain fluid communication among working groups. So all of the working groups will need to identify members who are willing to report to and communicate with other groups.

2. Some working groups may break into smaller sub units

3. Specific research questions are not specified here. We’ve already generated a lot of terrific questions – the next stage will be for working groups to refine sets of questions/objectives/hypotheses, and then we’ll share, discuss and modify as whole group to establish harmonious linkages.

As a starting point for this work we need to establish a set of alternate climate change/climate variability scenarios that will be a basis for most of the rest of what we do. These could be developed from “downscaling” of IPCC scenarios or from arbitrarily picking 2 or more different possible future scenarios involving chanage in precipitation/ change in temperature.

For the proposal writing, we need to recruit a small team who is willing to work on the development of these scenarios. This work needs to be done quickly.

The temporary, climate scenario working group:

Goal 1.

Project future responses of biodiversity, hydrology and carbon/nutrient cycles at Andrews under different climate change scenarios, considering the influences of land use, disturbance and topography.

FOUR PROPOSED WORKING GROUPS

Theses groups are defined by linkages among components in the “natural sciences” box. They are illustrated in the following figures as





Drivers






LTER6 working group #1: influence of topog. and land use (via forest structure) on r’ships between macroclimate and microclimate; influence of microclimate on biodiversity & phenology





Drivers






LTER6 working group #2: impacts of climate change/variability and interception of aerosols on hydrology and carbon/nutrient cycling





Drivers






LTER6 working group #3:Interactions among climate change/climate variability, biodiversity, and disturbance events (emphasizing disturbance/biodiversity feedbacks in a background of climate change and topographic variability)





Drivers






LTER6 working group #4: integrated model produces projections of forest future based on climate scenarios – incorporates information/concepts from groups 1-3.

Goal 2.

Provide tools (models, demonstrations) to forest managers to enhance sustainable forest management in alternate climate scenarios; project feedbacks from forest management alternatives on forest structure.

ONE PROPOSED WORKING GROUP





Drivers






LTER6 working group #5:Management applications and implications (working group 5 probably functions as a collaborationbetween working group 4 and silviculturists/managers

Goal 3.

Develop a conceptual organization to connect ecosystem services from mid-Cascades forests to the human societies in the McKenzie and Willamette Valleys under climate change/land use change/disturbance scenarios and conduct pilot work to promote additional funding from other sources.

ONE PROPOSED WORKING GROUP





Drivers






LTER6 working group #6:Conceptual development of linkages between climate change/climate variability, ecosystem services, and human behavior. ESSENTIAL TO HAVE BOTH NATURAL SCIENTISTS AND SOCIAL SCIENTISTS IN THIS GROUP!

Summary of groups – one temporary “climate scenario” group plus:

1. influence of topography and forest structure on microclimate; influence of microclimate on biodiversity & phenology

2. impacts of climate change/variability and interception of aerosols on hydrology and carbon/nutrient cycling

3. Interactions among climate change/climate variability, biodiversity, and disturbance events (might also include the subsequent impacts of disturbance events on hydrology and carbon/nutrient cycles

4. integrated model produces projections of forest future based on climate scenarios

5. Management applications and implications

6. Conceptual development of linkages among climate change/climate variability, ecosystem services, and human behavior.

The next step: Anyone who is interested in working to develop the concepts and research plans for this proposal is WELCOME to participate.

You do not have to attend the monthly meetings in order to participate. We’ll try to set up ways so that the working groups can incorporate participants remotely, and so that only a subset of members from working groups will have to participate in monthly meetings. It would be very helpful, however, if as many people as possible attend the second half of monthly meetings in March, April and May.

If you are interested in participating, please contact us ([email protected] and [email protected]) as soon as you can to let us know how you’d like to be involved.

In the second half of the next monthly meeting (10-11 am, Friday April 5, Richardson 313) we will briefly discuss the organization described in this powerpoint presentation, and then we will break into working groups. The working groups will be given assignments to develop specific questions and preliminary ideas for research plans to share at the following monthly meeting.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

• Friday, March 17: Distribute information about organization and working groups to PIs (modification of the ppt shared with exec team). Ask people to notify us about their interest in specific groups. Fine tune group organizations based on feedback

• April 6 monthly meeting: brief overview of LTER 6 organization. Working groups meet separately. Assignment for the next monthly meeting: 1. Identify group leader/s. 2. Identify reporters to attend and report back at monthly meetings. 3. Develop first cut for research goals and questions (or specific objectives. ) 4. Consider how existing infrastructure and data can be used to answer questions. 5. Consider how/whether a common transect might be useful to answer questions/accomplish objectives

• month of April: working groups meet and communicate. (reports posted on LTER6 web site).

• May 6 monthly meeting: Reports from working groups. Compare/contrast group questions/objectives, starting with synthesis/modeling group. Suggest modifications to make sure synthesis can be accomplished. Develop plans to maintain communications between groups. Consider whether common transect will be useful and make a decision to go ahead or not. Assignment for next monthly meeting: revise objectives/questions. Develop details for work plan (within rough budget guidelines, which will be given).

Documents

How do land use, natural disturbances, and climate change affect three key sets of ecosystem services: carbon and nutrient dynamics, biodiversity, and