How do I predict

the future of the church?

The Christian church is dying in the West. This painful fact is the cause of a great deal of avoidance by the Christian community. To use terminology drawn from pastoral care, the terminally sick patient is somewhere between denial and bargaining. Many refuse to contemplate the prospect of death, bolstered by small outbreaks of life, or encouraging one another to falsify the diagnosis. Others try to broker a deal with God, whereby if they remain faithful or pray harder or open themselves to a new experience, their small corner of congregational life will be saved.

Threshold of the Future, Mike Riddell, p1

What do we do with old 1st Church downtown?

Strengths 300,000 members 2,000 ministers 6,000 buildings Strong engagement

with community– 26% of Methodists

involved in community work

Weaknesses Sustained decline for

100 years Reluctance to

engage in evangelism

Elderly age profile Little prospect of

biological growth Public image of

Church & Christianity

British Methodism

Year Members New + Restored

Deaths + CTM

1950 744815 28401 26318 1959 733658 24675 25222 1968 651139 14481 26798 1977 516798 12044 22924 1986 450406 12029 19044 1995 380269 7483 17272 2004 293661 5653 19607

Membership < half – infrastructure largely the same!90’s 24% less members, 13% less churches

Roger Dawe’s prescription

6000 Churches 600 Circuits 32 Districts

2000 Churches 200 Circuits 12 Districts

C of E 1.2m worshippers – 16000 ChurchesMethodism 0.3m worshippers – 6000 ChurchesSame ratio as C of E – 4000 churches

We need to be more radical than we’ve yet dared to be!

World in which we minister

D

C B

A A B C D

Age

A - Churchgoing population 8-10%

B - Fringe 10% C - Dechurched

40%– 20% open– 20% closed

D - Unchurched 40%

What’s your background?

Richter & Francis, Gone But Not Forgotten, pp138-9

Surveying Spiritual BritainSurveying Spiritual Britain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 25 45 65 85

age in 1998

% pop

attendedchurchunder 15

attendingchurch1998

De-churched Approx 25%

Non-churched Approx 60%

Approx 15%

76% of New Christians Come from 25% De-Churched

finding faith today 1992

This section of the population is older and decreasing over time

The younger, largely non-churched are more likely to identify as ‘spiritual’ not religious

Hay and Hunt 2000

Steve Hollinghurst January 2004

3 types of churches

Dying churches– Only ministering to section A

‘Life in the old dog yet!’ churches– Ministering effectively to B & sometimes C– Church plants reach C

Resurrection churches– Reaching out towards D– No-one is doing this effectively yet!

Dying churches

Face death honestly Die with dignity No resuscitation

– Let go– let go burden for those keeping them alive.

Celebrate life– They didn’t fail!

Leave an appropriate legacy

Life in the old dog yet! Experience more than energy Need to go beyond the fringe to the

open dechurched. Fresh expressions of church

– 30-40 a year – rapid growth– Double/triple in 2-3 years– Hippy generation most reachable?

Good parents to the next generation Controlling or empowering?

– Especially to the pioneers

A welcoming church

Visited 18 churches Sat near front After service, walk to back & then back

to front (by different aisle) Smiled, tried to initiate conversation Stayed for coffee if it was offered

A welcoming church?

Smile Greeting Exchange names Invite to another service Introduced to another person Invited to meet pastor

10 points 10 points 100 points 200 points 1000 points 2000 points

How did they do?

11 out of 18 earned less than 100 points 5 received less than 20 points Free food for students 3 people remembered name, college &

course

What is a circuit?

The circuit is the primary unit in which the Local Churches express and experience their interconnexion in the Body of Christ, for purposes of mission, mutual encouragement and help.

SO500 Constitution, Practice & Discipline of the Methodist Church

What are its responsibilities

The (preaching) plan Visitation (of the local churches) Meetings Doctrinal Preaching Preparation for Membership Pastoral Care Benevolence Fund Removals (of ministers and deacons) Appointments

CPD assumes a Christendom model

What does it look like (cont)?

Church 1

Church 2

Church 3

Church 4

Church 5

Church 6

Church 7

Church 8

Church 9

Church 10

Church 11

Church 12

Church 13

Church 14

Church 15

Church 16

Church 17

Church 18

Church 19

Church 20

Assumptions: All churches serve the

whole of a local geographic community

All churches have a holistic ministry

Role of a circuit is to administrate this well and allocate shared resources (ministers & finances!)

Trad church Trad church Trad Church

Trad church Trad church

Seeker Sensitive

Youth Church

Cell Church

Working out the mess!

Trad church Trad church Trad Church

Trad church Trad church

Seeker Sensitive

Youth Church

Cell Church

Assumptions Mission is the

imperative All churches are not the

same Communities are not all

geographic Circuit resources can be

deployed in lots of ways (principally lay people!)

What are some possibilities?(Mission Shaped Church)

Alternative worship communities

Base Ecclesial Communities

Café Church Cell Church Community

initiatives Multiple & mid-week

congregations

Network-focused churches

School-based churches

Seeker Church Traditional Church

plants Traditional forms –

new interest Youth

Congregations

Reality Check! Most FEs describe themselves in at least three

of the above categories. Format is not the best way of categorising FEs. When MSC working group formed this

movement was just beginning to gather momentum – it’s very new

90s - ~10 church plants a year, now ~30-40 FEs a year – momentum still growing

Understanding what’s happening is going to be difficult for a while!

Explosion of ethnic churches – should be most significant shaper of Church in Britain

What is Church planting?

Church planting is the process by which a seed of the life and message of Jesus embodied by a community of Christians is immersed for mission reasons in a particular cultural or geographic context.

The intended consequence is that it roots there, coming to life as a new indigenous body of Christian disciples well suited to continue in mission

Ways in to a fresh expression

Worship

Community

Mission

There will be burning faith and conviction, a real passion for the gospel and a desire to share it. They will be churches with a vision, where people, seeing beyond themselves, catch glimpses of a new world. They will be communities of belonging, where relationships and not rules set the agenda. They will be places of embrace, where a special welcome will be given to the poor, the marginalised and those ostracised by society. In such communities people will learn how to respect others, work for justice caring for the earth and all its creatures. Real demands will be expected of their members who will pray, study the scriptures and disciple each other as they seek ‘to obey all that Jesus commanded’. They will be places which encourage imagination, inculturation, exploration and risk-taking. They will often be counter-cultural communities.

Into the Far Country, Tom Stuckey, p134-5

Nine missiologically significant patterns Identifying with

Jesus Transforming

secular space Living as community Welcoming the

stranger Serving with

generosity

Participating as producers– Producers not

consumers Creating as created

beings– Creation not re-

packaging Leading as a body Merging ancient and

contemporary spiritualities

Emerging Church, Eddie Gibbs & Ryan Bolger

Why Church Planting Today?

Effective 369 plants, 10000 people

>26000 in 3-4 years 30% growth per annum! Some stick others keep

growing 64% new – 17% relocated;

14% recommitted; 18% new converts; 15% fringe

Most rapid growth when team < 10 members

It reaches people outside churches

Less painful than transitioning

Church Planting – general trends

Network as important as neighbourhood Small groups/cells + celebration Experience – don’t rush to explanation Willingness to live doubt & be on a

journey One size doesn’t fit all

How do we go forward

Three strands in Acts Strategy

– Apostolic band, trade route, synagogue, god-fearers, gentiles

Accidents– Deacons, Athens

Holy Spirit– Macedonia (Acts 16)– Always one step beyond

Four P’s Pioneers

– Paul, Barnabas, Priscilla & Aquila etc– They’ll do it anyway!

Permission givers– Peter @ Jerusalem council– Vital role in ‘middle management’ of Church– Established at highest levels in British Methodism

Preservers– James?– Need to be listened to – preserve orthodoxy

Protesters– Circumcision party - loved but ignored – Can’t separate Christianity & culture

Fifth P

Outside Church Person of peace (Luke 10 etc)

Theological Assumptions One size does not fit all (‘a’ church not ‘the’

church) Ecclesiology shaped by missiology Relational & incarnational more important

than institutional & attractional Need to create Christian movements not just

Christian communities Re-imagining role of apostle, prophet &

evangelist (Ephesians 4) Traditional models of church are part of the

problem (especially when they think they’re the whole answer!)

Random thoughts Fresh expressions are still provisonal Most churches are only capable of doing

mission to the de-churched– Still considerable mileage in this approach

Who are your pioneers?– New converts are the most likely to be able to

think outside the box – do we ‘program’ them before trusting them?

How can they be released & resourced– How does an institution manage entrepreneurs

who work relationally

Questions

How many different communities can you identify in your circuits?

What are appropriate mission responses to those communities?

Are there fresh ways of being church that might be appropriate?

Looking at it from a different angle

Don’t start with church (& definitely not church buildings)

How can Christians serve the perceived needs of the local communities?

What groupings of people make that possible?

What physical resources (especially buildings) are helpful?

Where do we begin? Call of God

– Acts 13:1-3 Human Need

– Acts 17:16 While Paul was waiting for them in Athens, he was greatly distressed to see that the city was full of idols.

– Compassion (splanknizomai) Not Church or Christians Where are you

– At this moment?

What about leadership?

Absolutely vital – good leadership with adequate time.

Ordained people don’t necessarily do it better!

Gifts are more important than titles– ‘anointing’ precedes ‘appointing’

Teams are better then individuals Traditional churches may have other

expectations – don’t assume them for fresh ways of being church