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HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: WASHINGTON
Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
June 2012
National Trends
Composition of distressed sales by geography
12% 13%
23%
12% 15% 9%
17% 10%
17%
6%
10% 15%
13%
14% 14%
21%
16%
12%
13%
11%
35% 26%
18%
24% 20% 18% 14%
17% 5%
16%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Short Sale
Move-In Ready REO
Damaged REO
Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 2012
Perc
ent o
f To
tal T
rans
actio
ns
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties
18%
36% 32%
52% 22%
43%
36%
34% 61%
21%
33%
14%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Damaged REO
Move-In Ready REO
Short Sale Non-Distressed
Investor
First-Time Homebuyer
Current Homeowner
Perc
ent
of P
rope
rty T
ype
Who Is Buying Properties?─April 2012
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Financing for home purchases
31%
10%
78% 19%
53%
3%
19%
13%
4%
5%
7%
26% 17% 15%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors
All Other Financing
VA
Fannie/Freddie
FHA
Cash
Perc
ent
of B
uyer
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
Financing for Homebuyers─April 2012
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012
Washington Trends
Unemployment rate in Washington continues to mirror national trend
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
4
8
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Recession
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%) United States
Washington
Washington’s house values at 2005 levels FH
FA H
ouse
Pric
e In
dex
2000
=10
0
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
90
110
130
150
170
190
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly)
United States
Washington
House prices at metropolitan level
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x 20
00=
100
90
130
170
210
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly)
Tacoma
Seattle Spokane
Yakima
Numbers of WA delinquent mortgages fell in Q1 2012 while loans in foreclosure rose slightly
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Num
ber o
f M
ortg
ages
Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due
Washington’s consumer debt delinquency rate down from 2010 peak
0%
4%
8%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate
U.S.
Washington
Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
Seattle rents up, vacancies down
0%
3%
6%
9%
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Vacancy Rate A
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Seattle Quarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
Washington Foreclosure Data Maps
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012
Washington Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012
Washington Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Seattle Area Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012
Seattle Area Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012
Conclusions
For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website
Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies
All publications, presentations available on our website
Conference materials also posted shortly after events
http://www.frbsf.org/community/