8/12/2019 Hostage in a Geopolitical Game
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MOLDOVA is one of Europes poorest countries. It has some 3.6m
people, excluding the
400,000 who live in the de facto Russian-controlled, breakaway
region of Transnistria. Of its
workforce of 1.4m people half work abroad, according to Valeriu
Lazar, the minister ofeconomy. They used to go to southern Europe,
but with less work in the ailing southern
economies of the European Union many have gone to the building
sites for the Olympic Games
in Sochi in Russia. Their remittances account for at least a
quarter of GDP.
Moldova is now trying to become a place where expatriates would
like to return. On November
29th
at a summit meeting in Vilnius between the EU and six former
Soviet republics, it will signtwo major agreements that cover
political cooperation, reforms and free trade. The European
Commission is also set to propose visa-free travel for Moldovans
to the EUs Schengen zone. All
this represents a big opportunity for Moldova. Russia is doing
everything it can to sabotage it.
Vladimir Putin, Russias president, wants Moldova to join the
customs union of Russia,
Kazakhstan and Belarus, the core of the Moscow-dominated
Eurasian economic union he is
planning. In September Russia banned the import of Moldovan
wine, one of Moldovas major
exports. Dimitry Rogozin, a Kremlin envoy, has made threats
about cutting off gas to a countrythat is 100% reliant on supplies
from Russia.
In the contest between Russia and the EU, Moldova is small fry.
The real prize is Ukraine, which
is vacillating between east and west. All anyone wants to know
in Chisinau is which way
Ukraine will go. The fate of Moldova is dependent on the fate of
Ukraine, says Igor Botan, ananalyst. Iurie Leanca, the prime
minister, told a group of visiting policymakers and journalists
organised by theGerman Marshall Fund,that he does not want his
country to be a Ukrainian
hostage.For now it looks painfully like it already is.
If Ukraine signs up to similar agreements with the EU then
Moldova will have much more
freedom of action. If it decides to join the customs union with
Russia, says Mr Leanca, it will bemore difficult for usto resist
pressure. One source of that pressure is Transnistria whereRussian
soldiers are stationed. The leadership of Transnistria wants Russia
to recognise it. And
according to Nina Shtanski, Transnistrias foreign minister, her
government is keen tojoin the
customs union. Some 75% of Transnistrias budget comes directly
or indirectly from Russiansubsidies, so it does not have much
choice.
Vladimir Voronin, the leader of Moldovas Communist Party, which
is riding high in the polls,
also wants his country to join the customs union. As part of the
geopolitical high stakes game he
claims is being played, he accuses the EU of openly supporting a
government of bandits and
corrupt people. Even so, he refuses to say whether he would tear
up the Vilnius agreements ifhe were to come to power next year.
If Moldova and Ukraine both sign up in Vilnius the task for
Moldova especially is controllingexpectations, says a diplomat.
Sometimes Vilnius is talked about as though it was a congress
of
the Soviet Communist Party after which we will all walk away
into the sunny sunset. It wasnt
a cheerful walk then and wont be now.
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