Hong Kong SAR Government - LegCo · Interest rates remained low after the Dubai World incident 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 02/10/09 12/10/09 22/10/09 01/11/09 11/11/09 21/11/09 01/12/09

1

立法會財經事務委員會會議立法會財經事務委員會會議

Meeting of LegCo Panel on Financial AffairsMeeting of LegCo Panel on Financial Affairs

二零零九年十二月七日二零零九年十二月七日

7 December 20097 December 2009

香港特別行政區政府香港特別行政區政府

Hong Kong SAR GovernmentHong Kong SAR Government

CB(1)618/09-10(01)

2

2009年第三季經濟表現Economic performance in 2009 Q3

3

經濟按年跌幅在第三季進一步顯著收窄GDP decline tapered significantly further in the

third quarter

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

按年增減Year-on-year change

經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

0.4%

-2.4%

4

對外貿易環節External Sector

5

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q198

Q199

Q100

Q101

Q102

Q103

Q104

Q105

Q106

Q107

Q108

Q109

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

香港整體貨物出口 (左標線)Hong Kong's total exports of goods (LHS)

全球經濟增長*(右標線)World GDP*(RHS)

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

本圖所標示的全球經濟增長是以香港整體貨物出口加權而成。

The world GDP being plotted here is weighted by Hong Kong'stotal exports of goods.

註 : (*)Note :

出口表現在季內仍甚為反覆，但於季末明顯改善Export performance still rather unsteady during the quarter, yet

improving visibly towards the quarter end

6.2-7.2九月Sep

1.8-2.9六月Jun

-0.4-12.6五月May

13.9-16.1四月Apr

@ 經季節性調整數字Seasonally adjusted figures

Around 5Around -12十月Oct

# 兩月平均數Bi-monthly average

-9.7-19.1七月Jul

3.5-14.1八月Aug

貨物出口量Exports of goods in volume terms

-1.7-20.1三月Mar

-7.9-23.2一月及二月#

Jan & Feb2009

按月增減百分率@

Month-to-month % change

按年增減百分率Year-on-year %

change

6

服務出口表現較佳...Exports of services showed more resilience...

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q32004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009




4.6%

-0.9%

服務輸出

Exports of services

7

本地經濟環節Domestic Sector

8

本地消費進一步恢復Local consumer spending reviving further

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009




0.5%0.2%

私人消費開支

Private Consumption Expenditure

9

整體投資重見增長，為全球金融海嘯以來首次Overall investment reverted to growth for the first time

since global financial crisis

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

3.4%1.4%

-4.0%

機器、設備及電腦軟件開支

Machinery, equipment and computer software

本地固定資本形成總額Gross domestic fixed

capital formation

樓宇及建造

Building and construction


10資料來源：政府統計處業務展望按季統計調查

Source : Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, C&SD

20092008

-8

-10

-1

+15

+21

-34

-54

-15

-15

-26

-26

第三季比

第二季Q3 over Q2

+13

+24

+18

+35

0

-2

+18

+40

+1

-23

+3

第四季比

第三季

Q4 over Q3

-40-42-18專業及商用服務業 Professional and Business Services

對業務狀況在未來一季的預期變動的意見 (淨差額)Views on expected changes in business situation in the following quarter (Net balance)

-36

-28

-24

-24

-49

-73

-68

-38

-51

+7

第二季比

第一季Q2 over Q1

第一季比

2008 第四季Q1 over Q4

2008

第四季比

第三季Q4 over Q3

-53-15所有上列行業 All Sectors Above

-1+1地產業 Real Estate

-53-26金融及保險業 Financing and Insurance

-15+7資訊及通訊業 Information and Communications

-54-16運輸、倉庫及速遞服務業Transportation, Storage and Courier Services

-78-30住宿及膳食服務業 Accommodation and Food Services

-59-23零售業 Retail

-64-8進出口貿易及批發業 Import/Export Trade and Wholesale

-67-15建造業 Construction

-50-24製造業 Manufacturing

營商氣氛轉至正面Business sentiments turned up distinctly

11

勞工市場Labour market

12

失業率進一步回落至5.2%Unemployment rate fell further to 5.2%

-0.15.3零九年第三季Q3 2009

+0.25.4零九年第二季Q2 2009

-0.2*5.2零九年八月至十月Aug-Oct 2009

+1.15.2零九年第一季Q1 2009

+0.74.1零八年第四季

Q4 2008

+0.13.4零八年第三季Q3 2008

按季變動

Q-t-q change(百分點 / % pts.)(百分率 / %)

經季節性調整的失業率Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

(*) 與五至七月相比。Compared with May-July.

13

資料來源：政府統計處綜合住戶統計調查

Source : General Household Survey, C&SD

增減百分點2009

5.2

7.95.8

2.1

3.6

4.6

4.0

7.76.74.7

八月至十月Aug-Oct

-0.2

-3.9-1.0

+0.1

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-0.5+0.2-0.2

Change in % point

5.4整體(經季節性調整) Overall (seasonally adjusted)

按主要經濟行業劃分的失業率Unemployment rate by major economic sector

11.86.8

2.0

4.0

4.8

4.9

8.26.54.9

第二季Q2

建造業 Construction

製造業 Manufacturing

公共行政、社會及個人服務業Public administration, social and personal services

金融、保險、地產、專業及商用服務業Financing and insurance, real estate, professional andbusiness services

資訊及通訊業 Information and communications

運輸、倉庫、郵政及速遞服務業Transportation, storage, postal and courier services

住宿及膳食服務業 Accommodation and food services

零售業 Retail

進出口貿易及批發業 Import/export trade and wholesale

14

今輪衰退中職位流失情況遠較輕微Job loss significantly less in current recession

就業人數 (經季節性調整)Employment (seasonally adjusted)

96

97

98

99

100

101

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24距離高位後的月數

Number of months from peak

8/2008

12/1997

高位 = 100Peak = 100

累計下跌百分率：% decline from the peak :10/2009 : 1.2%2/1999 : 3.8%

15

通脹壓力已大幅消退Inflationary pressures remained scant

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1/03 7/03 1/04 7/04 1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09

基本綜合消費物價指數Underlying CCPI

-0.3%

基本食品

Basic foodstuffs

-2.3%

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

16

資產市場Asset market

17

近期亞洲股市再出現波動Another wave of gyrations in Asian stock market lately

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

15/9/08 15/10/08 15/11/08 15/12/08 15/1/09 15/2/09 15/3/09 15/4/09 15/5/09 15/6/09 15/7/09 15/8/09 15/9/09 15/10/09 15/11/09

上證綜合指數Shanghai Composite Index

東京日經指數Nikkei Index

新加坡海峽時報指數Singapore Straits Index

倫敦富時100指數FTSE 100 Index

摩根士丹利太平洋區指數 (香港及日本除外)MSCI Pacific Index (excl. HK and Japan)

杜瓊斯指數Dow Jone's Index

恆生指數Hang Seng Index

(15/9/2008=100)

18

恆生指數市盈率Price-earnings ratio of HSI

5

10

15

20

25

30

3/95 3/96 3/97 3/98 3/99 3/00 3/01 3/02 3/03 3/04 3/05 3/06 3/07 3/08 3/09

19.5

長期平均: 14.8倍 (73年5月- 09年11月)Long-term average : 14.8 times (May 73 - Nov 09)

倍

Times

±1 標準偏差

Standard deviation band

亞洲金融危機Asian financial crisis

科網泡沬爆破

Internet bubble burst美國爆發次按危機

US sub-prime crisis unfolded

11/09

19

杜拜世界事件令部分信貸違約掉期大幅飇升Some credit default swaps soared after the Dubai World incident

0

200

400

600

800

01/10/09 11/10/09 21/10/09 31/10/09 10/11/09 20/11/09 30/11/09

歐洲（企業債務）：投資級別Europe (Corporate) - Investment grade

歐洲（企業債務）：次等級別Europe (Corporate) - Crossover

北美（企業債務）：投資級別N. Am. (Corporate) - Investment grade

杜拜（主權債務）Dubai (Sovereign)

阿布扎比（主權債務）Abu Dhabi (Sovereign)

俄羅斯（主權債務）Russia (Sovereign)

價差(基點)Spreads (bps)

20

香港銀行同業流動資金狀況仍然充裕Hong Kong interbank liquidity remained abundant

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

02/10/09 12/10/09 22/10/09 01/11/09 11/11/09 21/11/09 01/12/090.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

十億港元

HKD billion %

三個月期香港銀行同業拆出利率(右標線)3-month HIBOR (RHS)

總結餘(左標線)Aggregate balance (LHS)

21

杜拜事件後，本地息口仍維持低企Interest rates remained low after the Dubai World incident

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

02/10/09 12/10/09 22/10/09 01/11/09 11/11/09 21/11/09 01/12/09

隔夜O/N 一個月期 1-month三個月期 3-month 六個月期 6-month十二個月期 12-month

%

香港銀行同業拆出利率HIBOR

22

整體住宅物業價格在去年後期劇跌後大幅回升Residential property prices bounced back markedly after the

plunge in the latter part of last year

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09

(+3.7%)整體住宅價格指數

Overall residentialprice index

指數

Index

(+2.8%)

70平方米以下住宅價格指數Residential price index

(less than 70 sq m)

100平方米或以上住宅價格指數Residential price index

(100 sq m or above)

(0.0%)

23

供樓負擔能力尚算穩健Affordability still rather healthy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q189

Q190

Q191

Q192

Q193

Q194

Q195

Q196

Q197

Q198

Q199

Q100

Q101

Q102

Q103

Q104

Q105

Q106

Q107

Q108

Q109

45平方米住宅按揭供款佔住戶每月收入中位數比例

Ratio of median householdincome to mortgage payment

on a 45 sq m flat

52.6%

(%)

20年平均數20-year average

36.5%

24

住宅價格與住戶收入累積升幅大致相若Flat prices have generally risen in tandem with household income

低技術勞工Lower-skilled workers

整體Overall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

指數 (1991=100)Index (1991=100)

整體住宅價格

Overall flat prices

人均勞工收入

Per capita labour earnings

居於私人房屋住戶的

住戶收入中位數

Median household income living inprivate housing units

2009Q1-Q3*註 : (*) 人均勞工收入為二零零九年頭半年的數字。

Note : (*) Per capita labour earnings refers to the actual figure in the first half of 2009.

25

在1997年物業市場泡沫形成前，貸款出現長期快速擴張Build-up of property market bubble in 1997 was preceded by

an extended period of credit boom

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q188

Q189

Q190

Q191

Q192

Q193

Q194

Q195

Q196

Q197

Q198

Q199

Q100

Q101

Q102

Q103

Q104

Q105

Q106

Q107

Q108

Q109

貸款及墊款增減Growth in loans and advance


名義本地生產總值增長Growth in nominal

Gross Domestic Product

26

2009年餘下時間展望Outlook in the rest of 2009

27

訂單情況出現改善Orders are improving

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

01/05 05/05 09/05 01/06 05/06 09/06 01/07 05/07 09/07 01/08 05/08 09/08 01/09 05/09 09/09 01/10-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

中國採購經理人指數內新出口訂單 (左標線) 三個月移動平均數，滯後兩個月CFLP PMI new export orders (LHS) 3-month moving average,lag 2 months香港出口 (右標線)HK's total exports (RHS)

採購經理人指數PMI (Index)


28

業務展望統計調查的結果預示第四季將有擴張Business Tendency Survey suggests expansion in the

fourth quarter

-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060

Q12005

Q22005

Q32005

Q42005

Q12006

Q22006

Q32006

Q42006

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

業務狀況預期變動 (左標線)Expected change in

business situation (LHS)

淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差

距。正數指可能向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。

Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to thedifference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". Apositive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

註 : (*)

Note :

淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)

經濟增長 (右標線)GDP growth (RHS)

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

29

企業已開始部署增聘人手Employment creation gradually coming back

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q12006

Q22006

Q32006

Q42006

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

企業對於人手的預期 (左標線)Business expectation

on employment (LHS)

註 : * 淨差額展現了就業人數預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「上升」的機構單位百分比與填報「下降」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指可能向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。 # 私營機構的就業人數。Notes: * Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in number of persons engaged versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing "up" over that choosing "down". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. # Employment in private sector.

淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)

就業人數#增長 (右標線)Employment# growth (RHS)


30

職位空缺的數目正在上升Number of job vacancies is on the up

註: (1) 貿易業包括進出口貿易業及批發貿易。 The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade.Notes: (2) 物流業包括貨運、倉庫、郵政及速遞服務。The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services.

(#) 私營機構於勞工處刊登的空缺數目。 Private sector vacancies posted by Labour Department.( ) 按年增減百分比。 Year-on-year % change.

由於進位關係，個別數字之和可能不等於其總數。 Individual figures may not add up exactly to the total due to rounding.

5576660998459835022842758整體經濟 Overall economy( -4.9 )

251727675284

59710835632217754

167236725344

250640706576

十月 Oct

( 5.4 )

172617993525

2406170532811738

171525364251

161830304648

十二月 Dec

2008

數目#/Number#

2009

( -9.9 )( -11.3 )(-11.4 )

270723532278建造業 Construction303327002667地產業 Real estate574050534945地產及建造業 Real estate and construction

586311443住宿服務業 Accommodation services1177662647978膳食服務業 Restaurants639741805011零售業 Retail187591075513432

旅遊及消費相關的行業Tourism and consumption-related services

197820972818保險業 Insurance408540353320金融業 Financing 606361326138金融服務業 Financial Service

281118991906物流業 Logistics (2)486639673829貿易業 Trading (1) 767758665735貿易及物流業 Trading and Logistics

九月 Sep 六月 Jun三月 Mar

31

• 本地景氣指數正在改善；商業信心回升Local sentiment improving; business sentiment turning up

• 環球經濟重見增長Global economy returning to position growth again

• 內地維持較快增長Mainland to sustain strong economic growth

• 基建工程加速進行Infrastructure works to accelerate

• 私營機構分析員現時對明年的經濟增長預測平均約為4%Private sector analysts’ prevailing GDP forecasts average at about 4%

二零一零年本地生產總值可望恢復正增長2010 GDP likely to resume annual growth

32

• 歐美金融系統內的「毒資產」仍未清除“Toxic assets” in the US and European financial systems

• 歐美去槓桿化將削弱全球貿易復蘇的力度Deleveraging in the US and Europe could undermine the strength of recovery in global trade

• 政府刺激措施的影響消退後，歐美經濟能否持續復蘇Whether the US and Europe can maintain self-sustained recovery after public policy support wanes

• 保護主義升溫Rise of protectionist sentiment

• 各地的退市措施啟動時對資產市場的影響Impact on asset markets when exit strategies are implemented

復蘇過程仍未穩固 ...Recovery process still unsteady...

33

低收入住戶*組合及變化Composition of and change in low-income households*

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q31997

Q31998

Q31999

Q32000

Q32001

Q32002

Q32003

Q32004

Q32005

Q32006

Q32007

Q32008

Q32009

註：(*) 低收入住戶指月入4,000元以下之住戶。Note : (*) Low-income households refer to those with monthly household income less than $4,000.

數目 ('000)Number ('000)

從事經濟活動住戶Economically activehouseholds

長者住戶Elderly households

非從事經濟活動住戶Economically inactivehouseholds

經濟下滑週期Economic down-cycle

經濟進入上升週期Economic up-cycle

經濟逆轉Recession

began

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q31997

Q31998

Q31999

Q32000

Q32001

Q32002

Q32003

Q32004

Q32005

Q32006

Q32007

Q32008

Q32009

人數 ('000)Number ('000)

在低收入住戶從事經濟活動人士*的組合Composition of economically active persons in low-income households*

低收入住戶指月入4,000元以下的住戶。這不包括只有長者的低收入住戶當中從事經濟活動的人士，但這類人士為數很少。Low-income households refer to households with monthly household income less than $4,000. This does not include economicallyactive persons in the low-income households with elderly members only, but the numbers involved are insignificant.

失業

Unemployed

自願兼職

Voluntary part-time

全職

Full-time

就業不足

Underemployed

註：(*)Notes : (*)




began

35

Low-income households refer to households with monthly household income less than $4,000. This does not include economically active persons in the low-income households with elderly members only, but the numbers involved are insignificant.Monthly period-end figures.

低收入住戶指指月入4,000元以下的住戶。這不包括只有長者的低收入住戶當中從事經濟活動的人士，但這類人士為數很少。為每月的期末數字。

註 : (*)(^)

Notes : (*)

(^)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 1997

Q1 1998

Q1 1999

Q12000

Q1 2001

Q1 2002

Q1 2003

Q1 2004

Q1 2005

Q1 2006

Q1 2007

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

0

60

120

180

240

300

低收入住戶中的失業人數*、綜援的失業個案數目^與總失業人數的關係The relationship between the unemployed in low-income households*, CSSA active caseload

(unemployment)^, and the total unemployed in the economy

總失業人數 (右標線)Total unemployed in theeconomy (RHS)

低收入住戶中的失業人數 (左標線)Unemployed in low-income households (LHS)

綜援的失業個案數目 (左標線)CSSA active caseload (unemployment)(LHS)

Oct2009

人數 ('000)Number ('000)

人數 ('000)Number ('000)




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