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香港特別行政區政府香港特別行政區政府
Hong Kong SAR GovernmentHong Kong SAR Government
2010 2010 年半年經濟報告年半年經濟報告HalfHalf--yearly Economic Report 2010yearly Economic Report 2010
&&
2010 2010 年全年修訂經濟預測年全年修訂經濟預測Updated economic forecasts for 2010Updated economic forecasts for 2010
二零一零年八月十三日二零一零年八月十三日13 August 201013 August 2010
2
2010年第二季經濟表現Economic performance in 2010 Q2
3
香港經濟在第二季繼續全面復蘇Broad-based recovery continued into the second quarter
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
按年增減Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
1.4%
6.5%
本地生產總值
Gross Domestic Product
4
對外貿易環節External sector
5
整體出口進一步顯著增長Merchandise exports increased markedly further
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
按年增減Year-on-year change
貨物出口
Exports of goods20.1%
4.2%
6
亞洲區內貿易颷升; 歐美市場依然落後Intra-regional trade showed a resurgence; US and
European markets still lagging behind
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
(2008年第三季 = 100)(Q3 2008 = 100)
美國US
歐盟EU
中國內地Mainland China
日本
Japan
亞洲(不包括中國及日本)
Asia (excluding China and Japan)
實質香港貨物出口
Hong Kong's exports of goods in real terms
110.9108.4102.4
81.7
78.2
7
服務出口亦依然興旺Exports of services likewise remained vibrant
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
按年增減Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
0.8%
16.9%服務輸出
Exports of services
8
訪港旅遊業因訪港旅客激增而急升; 金融服務業不及早前蓬勃
Inbound tourism surged on strong influx of visitor arrivals; financial
services less robust
區內貨運暢旺為相關服務貿易帶來支持
Vibrant trade flows in the region supportive to relevant trades in services
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
金融及商用服務Financial and business services旅遊服務Travel services
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
與貿易有關的服務Trade-related services
運輸服務Transportation services
34.5%
12.4%
18.1%
11.0%
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
9
本地經濟環節Domestic sector
10
私人消費保持堅挺Private consumption held firm
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
按年增減Year-on-year change
經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change
實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)
1.5%
4.6%
私人消費開支
Private Consumption Expenditure
11
投資開支大幅上升,反映營商氣氛正面Investment spending surged, reflecting positive business
sentiment
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
11.4%15.2%16.2%
機器、設備及電腦軟件開支Machinery, equipment and
computer software 本地固定資本形成總額Gross domestic fixed
capital formation
樓宇及建造
Building and construction
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
12
勞工市場Labour market
13
失業率繼二零零九年年中起逐步下跌後略為回升Unemployment rate ticked up after successive declines
since mid-2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
低技術勞工Lower-skilled workers
專業及管理員工Professional andmanagerial staff
整體Overall
5.1%4.6%
2.7%
失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)
14
工資及勞工收入進一步加快上升Labour wages and earnings picked up further
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
就業人士平均薪金指數Index of payroll
per person engaged
僱員每月就業收入平均數Average monthly
employment earnings of employees
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
工資指數Wage index
15
按行業分類的名義工資指數Nominal wage index by industry
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
進出口貿易、批發及零售
Import/export, wholesale and retail trades運輸
Transportation金融及保險活動
Financial and insurance activities地產租賃及保養管理服務
Real estate leasing and maintenance management專業及商業服務
Professional and business services住宿及膳食服務活動
Accommodation and food service activities所有行業
All industries
按年名義增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in nominal terms (%)
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000三月Mar
2001三月Mar
2002三月Mar
2003三月Mar
2004三月Mar
2005三月Mar
2006三月Mar
2007三月Mar
2008三月Mar
2009三月Mar
2010三月Mar
(%)
更多公司上調工資More firms have raised wages
上調工資的公司的比重Share of firms with wage increases
下調工資的公司的比重Share of firms with wage decreases工資不變的公司的比重Share of firms with wage unchanged
17
本地股票市場Local stock market
18
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
15/9/08 15/11/08 15/1/09 15/3/09 15/5/09 15/7/09 15/9/09 15/11/09 15/1/10 15/3/10 15/5/10 15/7/10
杜瓊斯指數Dow Jones Index上證綜合指數Shanghai Composite Index摩根士丹利太平洋區指數 (香港及日本除外)MSCI Pacific Index (excl. HK and Japan)東京日經指數Nikkei Index新加坡海峽時報指數Singapore Straits Index倫敦富時100指數FTSE 100 Index恆生指數Hang Seng Index
(15/9/2008=100)
Change over
15/9/2008
HSI (11%)
Nikkei (-22%)
MSCI (19%)
Dow Jones (-3%)
本地股票市場跟隨環球其他主要股票市場出現反彈Local stock market rebounded alongside major stock
markets worldwide
SCI (25%)
19
本港住宅市場Local property market
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
整體住宅價格指數
Overall residentialprice index
指數
Index
70平方米以下住宅價格指數Residential price index
(less than 70 sq m)
100平方米或以上住宅價格指數Residential price index
(100 sq m or above)
較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +7%較1997高位Above 1997 peak: +2%
住宅價格於二零零九年初開始急升Flat prices surged since early 2009
較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +15%較1997高位Below 1997 peak: -16%
較2008高位Above 2008 peak: +17%較1997高位Below 1997 peak: -17%
住宅價格於二零零九年初開始急升Flat prices surged since early 2009
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60
80
100
數目 (千)Number ('000)
成交額 (右標線)Value of transactions (RHS)
交投量(左標線)Number of transactions (LHS)
十億港元HK$ Bn
住宅物業市場在二零一零年上半年大部分時間交投活躍Property market transactions were active in most of the first half of 2010
住宅物業市場在二零一零年上半年大部分時間交投活躍Property market transactions were active in most of the
first half of 2010
22
5百萬至少於1 千萬元5 to less than 10 million
(12%)
1千萬元或以上10 million or above
(6%)
2 百萬至少於5 百萬元2 to less than 5 million
(42%)
少於2百萬元Less than 2 million
(41%)
二零一零年上半年住宅物業買賣合約數目
S&P agreements for residentialproperty in 2010 H1
70平方米或以上70 m2 or above
(11%)
70平方米以下Less than 70 m2
(89%)
市場仍以用家為主Market remained largely end-user led
二零一零年上半年住宅物業二手市場成交
Secondary market transaction for residentialproperty in 2010 H1
註 : 由於進位的關係,數字加起來未必等於 100%。Note : Due to rouding, figures might not add up to 100%.
市場交投仍集中於中小單位Market activities remained concentrated in
small/medium-sized flats
23
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
註:確認人交易指於未正式完成交易之前轉售。Note : Confirmor transactions refer to resale before assignment.
宗數Number
百分比Percentage
投機活動並不熾熱Speculation activities were generally not rampant
確認人交易宗數 (左標線)Number of confirmor transactions (LHS)
確認人交易佔所有買賣合約百分比 (右標線)Confirmor transactions as a share of total sale and purchase agreements (RHS)
投機活動相對其過往情況並不算熾熱Speculation activities not particularly rampant relative to
their past trend
24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
年利率Percent per annum
一個月香港銀行同業拆息
1 month HIBOR
按揭利率*
Mortgage rate*
註︰ (*) 按揭利率是根據以最優惠利率作為定價參考及其他定價方法(包括以香港銀行同業拆息作為定價)的貸款佔新批出貸款的比例 及相關利率所推算。Note : (*) The mortgage rate is estimated by the share of mortgage loans priced with reference to Best Lending Rate and otherwise priced (including those pricing with reference to HIBOR) in total new mortgage loans approved and their respective interest rates.
短期銀行同業拆息跌至接近零的水平,令按揭利率處於低水平Mortgage rate stayed at low level with short-term interbank
interst rate falling to almost zero
短期銀行同業拆息跌至接近零,令按揭利率處於低水平Mortgage rate stayed at low level with short-term
interbank interst rate falling to almost zero
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
置業供款負擔仍然較長期平均水平為佳Home purchase affordability still compared favourably with the long-term average
2010 第二季:41.52010 Q2 : 41.5
1989-2008年平均值:52.61989-2008 average: 52.6
註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的 住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
置業供款負擔仍然較長期平均水平為佳,主因是利息低企Home purchase affordability still compared favourably
with the long-term average, largely boosted by low interest rates
1997第二季: 92.81997Q2: 92.8
26
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)
假設按揭利率加300點子If mortgage rate +300 bps
2010 第二季 41.52010 Q2 : 41.5
1989-2008年平均值:52.61989-2008 average : 52.6
註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的 住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).
若利率最終回復至正常水平,置業供款負擔將會上升The repayment burden to homebuyers would increase
should interest rate eventually normalise
若利率最終回復至正常水平,置業供款負擔將會上升The repayment burden to homebuyers would increase
should interest rate eventually normalise
27
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
住宅單位落成量
Completion of residential property units
落成量及中期供應的情況最近已有改善Completion and medium supply situations have improved recently
單位Units
10年平均10 year average
未來數年私人樓宇供應
Private housing supply in the next few years
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
單位Units
中期供應量 : 61 000 個Medium term supply : 61 000 units
註:中期供應量包括已落成但仍未售出的單位,建築中但未預售的單位及已批出
土地而仍未動工項目的單位。Note : Medium term supply comprises unsold completed flats, flats under construction but not yet sold, and flats on disposed sites where construction has yet to start.
註:2001年後的數字並不包括村屋。2010及2011年為預測數字。Note : Village houses are excluded since 2001. Figures for 2010 and 2011 are forecasts.
落成量及中期供應增加,將有助樓市平穩健康發展Increase in completion and medium term supply should
help ensure stable and healthy development of the property market
28
通脹Inflation
29
通脹因經濟進一步增長而稍為上漲Inflation notched up slightly upon the further pick-up
in the economy
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
基本食品 Basic foodstuffs
基本綜合消費物價指數 Underlying CCPI
3.0%1.7%
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
6 月Jun
30
本地及外圍通脹壓力一覽A summary of local and external inflationary pressures
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
資本貨物進口價格Import prices of capital goods食品進口價格Import prices of foodstuffs原料及半製成品進口價格Import prices of raw materials and semi-manufactures
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
商舖租金成本 (8季移動平均)Shop rental cost (8-quarter moving average)
名義工資指數Overall nominal wage index
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of chnge (%)
按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)
0.4%
1.9%
9.7%
3.9%3.5%
31
2010年下半年展望Outlook for the second half of 2010
32
• 內地及亞洲經濟增長強勁Strong growth in the Mainland and other Asian economies
• 本地消費和投資氣氛依然堅挺Firm local consumption and investment sentiments
• 基建活動加快進行Expedition of infrastructure projects
短期前景: 正面因素Near-term Outlook: Positive factors
33
大型企業普遍維持樂觀The extent of optimism among large enterprises held up
rather well
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
業務狀況預期變動 (左標線)Expected change in
business situation (LHS)
淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指可能
向上趨升,而負數則為可能跌勢。
Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentagepoints between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trendwhile a negative sign, a likely downward trend.
註 : *
Note : *
淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)
經濟增長 (右標線)GDP growth (RHS)
按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
34
• 歐洲地區主權債務問題Sovereign debt problem in Europe
• 各先進經濟體系刺激措施的效用減退Fading stimulus effect in the advanced economies
• 大量資金流入亞洲帶來宏觀經濟風險Flush of liquidity into Asia posing a risk to macroeconomic stability
• 保護主義升溫; 匯率市場波動Rise of protectionism; exchange rates fluctuation
但仍要留意不確定性因素Yet still on guard for the prevailing uncertainties
35
實質經濟增長率: 5 – 6%Real GDP growth: 5 – 6%
整體通脹率: 2.3%Headline inflation: 2.3%
基本通脹率: 1.5%Underlying inflation: 1.5%
2010年香港經濟預測Economic forecasts on Hong Kong for 2010
36
完
End