Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC
Please see “Important Legal Information” for important disclosures regarding the data and information contained and the views and
opinions expressed in this material.
HOLT Portfolio Update December 2016
Heather Kidde, CFA
Portfolio Manager
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Sean Burns
Senior Analyst/Portfolio Manager Christian Stauss
Portfolio Manager
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Agenda
Performance Update: Mixed performance in a challenging market for active investors
Sustainable Dividend Update: Post Election Portfolio positioning
The Case for Dividend Investing: Dividend stocks remain attractive
Trades: Sustainable Dividend Portfolios
APPENDIX Performance Detail Trade Commentary
2
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Performance Update
3
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
4
HOLT Strategies Performance
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg *Returns greater than one year are annualized. Past performance is no guarantee or indicator of future results. 1The Global Sustainable Dividend All World Composite, European Sustainable Dividend Composite and US Sustainable Dividend Composite include all fully discretionary portfolios that are managed to the Global Sustainable Dividend All World Strategy, European Sustainable Dividend Strategy and US Sustainable Dividend Strategy, respectively. Prior to April 30, 2015, accounts were initially included when 95% of assets in the account were tracking the model and the cash balance comprised less than 2.5%. Beginning April 30, 2015, accounts will be initially included when the cash balance is less than 7.5% of the account. The US Large Cap Core Composite and US Small Cap Blue Chip Composite include all fully discretionary portfolios that are managed to the US Large Cap Core Strategy and US Small Cap Blue Chip Strategy, respectively. Accounts are initially included when 95% of assets in the account are tracking the model and the cash balance comprises less than 2.5%. Portfolios included in the composites are not necessarily 100% invested to the model for all time periods. All accounts pay a "wrap fee" based on a percentage of assets under management. The maximum wrap fee schedule charged to accounts in the Global Sustainable Dividend All World Composite, US Sustainable Dividend Composite, US Large Cap Core Composite and US Small Cap Blue Chip Composite is 2.0%; the maximum wrap fee schedule charged to accounts in the European Sustainable Dividend Composite is 1.5%. Actual fees incurred by clients may vary. Gross-of-fees results are gross of the entire wrap fee and are shown as supplemental information. Net-of-fees results are net of the entire wrap fee. Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. For illustrative and
informational purposes only. Indices are not subject to management fees and are not available for direct investment. 2Represents the HOLT Canada model portfolio. Performance results for the Canada Portfolio are model performance results that do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the adviser's decision-making if the adviser were actually managing clients' money. Assumes an annual fee of 1.50%.
Data as of November 30, 2016 Nov-16 QTD YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr* 5-Yr* ITD* Strategy AuM Inception
Sustainable Dividend Strategies:
Global Sustainable Dividend Composite1 (Gross) 1.64% -0.69% 3.46% 2.94% 2.89% 8.30% 8.44% $933 million 12/31/2010
Global Sustainable Dividend Composite (Net) 1.62% -0.76% 3.02% 2.43% 2.05% 7.35% 7.47%
MSCI AC World Daily TR Net USD (NDUEACWF) 0.76% -0.95% 5.58% 3.68% 2.99% 8.85% 6.09%
US Sustainable Dividend Composite1 (Gross) 5.28% 3.33% 12.98% 12.97% 10.50% 14.56% 14.22% $157 million 12/31/2010
US Sustainable Dividend Composite (Net) 5.26% 3.08% 12.05% 11.93% 9.24% 13.20% 12.85%
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 3.70% 1.81% 9.79% 8.05% 9.06% 14.44% 12.28%
European Sustainable Dividend Composite1 (Gross) -3.10% -6.91% -9.22% -10.64% -3.96% -- 1.49% $81 million 6/30/2013
European Sustainable Dividend Composite (Net) -3.11% -7.03% -9.78% -11.28% -4.98% -- 0.39%
MSCI Daily TR Net Europe USD (NDDUE15) -2.18% -5.36% -5.36% -7.80% -4.10% -- 1.64%
Sustainable Growth Strategies:
US Large Cap Core Composite1 (Gross) 4.79% 2.77% 2.60% 0.76% 6.25% 12.97% 8.70% $104 million 6/30/2008
US Large Cap Core Composite (Net) 4.77% 2.62% 1.86% -0.07% 5.11% 11.70% 7.45%
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 3.70% 1.81% 9.79% 8.05% 9.06% 14.44% 8.99%
US Small Cap Blue Chip Composite1 (Gross) 11.55% 10.06% 17.46% 11.97% 8.45% -- 13.74% $7 million 9/30/2012
US Small Cap Blue Chip Composite (Net) 11.52% 9.98% 16.78% 11.20% 7.31% -- 12.50%
Russell 2000 Index (RTY) 11.14% 5.85% 17.97% 12.05% 6.45% -- 13.15%
Canada Portfolio2 (Gross) 2.35% 3.85% 12.47% 9.38% 8.31% -- 10.22% $60 million 2/29/2012
Canada Portfolio (Net) 2.35% 3.46% 10.80% 7.76% 6.70% -- 8.58%
S&P/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) 2.19% 2.83% 19.10% 15.45% 7.17% -- 6.80%
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
93%
99%
82%
73%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US All Cap Value
US Dividend Focus
Global Value
Global Dividend Focus
Inception to Date Percentile Rank
eVe
stm
en
t P
ee
r G
rou
p C
ate
go
ry
GSD
GSD
USSD
USSD
5
Data as of 9/30/2016, unless specified elsewhere; Returns are reported gross of fees.
Source: Credit Suisse, eVestment
Performance of the HOLT Strategies Ranks High vs Peers US Sustainable Dividend ranks in the 99th percentile of US Dividend Focused Funds since inception through
September 30, 2016
GSD USSD
Peer Group Comparison
Global Dividend
Focus Global Value US Dividend Focus US All Cap Value
1-Yr 18% 34% 91% 88%
3-Yr 36% 51% 90% 89%
5-Yr 38% 27% 86% 69%
ITD 73% 82% 99% 93%
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Post Election Performance Summary:
Sustainable Dividend Portfolios well-positioned
6
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Quantifying the impact of a Trump victory
Theme: Commentary:
Equities: In pre-market trading, S&P futures were limit down 5%, but US markets actually closed in positive territory after participants digested the outcome. This reaction draws parallels to European markets in the week following the Brexit vote. Reasonable to expect heightened volatility in the short term.
S&P 500 Index: +3.0%
MSCI All Country World Index: +0.75%
Interest Rates: Trump’s policies are seen as inflationary, sending interest rates higher. We believe the Sustainable Dividend Portfolios are well positioned for this scenario. Over the past 12 months, we have
decreased exposure to traditional defensives due to expensive valuations, interest rate sensitivity and limited growth, and we have found interesting dividend growth ideas in more cyclical sectors.
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: +55bps
Currency: The US dollar continued to strengthen against global currencies due to increasing interest rates, improving economic data, and more hawkish language from the Fed.
DXY Index: +2.75%
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Data as of 12/5/2016; Data from 11/8/16 – 11/30/16
7
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
We positioned for a rising rate environment earlier in the year
• Valuation Concerns: In 2010, the Staples sector traded at 18.4x Economic P/E and offered a 2.9% dividend yield and slightly positive capital appreciation potential. In early 2016, the sector traded at 26.1x Economic P/E, offering just 2.5% dividend yield and had negative capital appreciation potential.
• Sensitivity to Interest Rates: Traditional defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecom, REITs), dividend paying sectors exhibited a strong negative correlation to interest rates, which in many cases dominated stock specific news.
• Changing Dividend Landscape: New dividend ideas came from less obvious sectors (Tech, Financials, Industrials), due to a more attractive combination of capital appreciation potential, dividend yield and dividend growth.
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Data as of 3/21/2016 Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results.
8
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Trading focused on finding a balance of yield and dividend growth
US Sustainable Dividend vs SPX Sector Positioning
GICS Sector Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Return Div Yield Div Growth
Consumer Discretionary -0.2 -2.1 -3.4 -2.7 -2.2 4.2% 1.5% 6.9%
Financials -1.1 -0.2 1.8 -0.1 1.8 12.5% 1.8% 11.5%
Industrials 1.9 4.3 4.0 8.8 8.5 7.4% 2.2% 7.4%
Information Technology -2.3 -1.4 -2.6 -5.0 -5.2 0.0% 1.6% 6.5%
Materials 6.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.4% 2.2% 9.3%
Cyclicals 4.7 6.0 5.4 7.0 8.3 Avg 5.9% 1.8% 8.3%
Consumer Staples 7.3 3.2 0.4 -2.2 -1.6 -3.5% 2.8% 6.1%
Energy -6.5 -6.8 -7.4 -7.3 -7.3 7.1% 2.5% 5.5%
Health Care -1.8 2.5 6.6 5.7 3.5 0.9% 1.8% 5.6%
Real Estate -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 -3.1 -2.8 -2.4% 3.6% 4.6%
Telecommunication Services -2.4 -2.8 -2.9 -2.6 -2.6 5.4% 4.8% 1.9%
Utilities -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.3 -3.2 -4.2% 3.7% 5.7%
Defensives -9.2 -10.3 -10.2 -12.7 -13.9 Avg 0.6% 3.2% 4.9%
• Starting in the beginning of 2016, we rotated out of strong performing defensive names (HSY, DPS, KMB, MO) and found new dividend ideas in more cyclical sectors (DFS, WFC, ETN, LLTC). These names had capital appreciation potential and an attractive balance of moderate current yield and above average dividend growth.
• Following the election, as yields rallied, Cyclicals outperformed Defensives in the US. On average, cyclical sectors offer 1.8% yield with 8.3% projected dividend growth. Defensive sectors have a higher current yield of 3.2%, but only offer 4.9% projected growth.
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg, Data as of 11/30/2016 (Returns are gross of fees from 11/8/16 – 11/30/16) Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator or future results and there is no guarantee that projected growth will occur.
9
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Sector Playbook
Sector Outlook
Health Care Fears over legislation imposed on US Pharma and Biotech appear to be subsiding. Trump plans to repeal and
replace the ACA, but did not scrutinize drug prices during his campaign. The sector remains defensive with growth prospects and attractive valuations, following a period of multiple compression.
Financials We have been adding to the space over the past twelve months, finding combination of dividend yield and
growth with strong capital appreciation potential. Space will continue to benefit from rising interest rates and ROE’s could improve with easing regulation.
Industrials Aerospace & Defensive industry stands to benefit from government focus on building military strength and eliminating the sequester on defense spending. These companies also provide some protection from increasing global political uncertainty.
Technology Multiple companies would benefit from an opportunity to repatriate cash trapped overseas, and this could act as catalyst to increase the dividend and payout ratios in the sector.
Staples Concerned with valuation levels in US, considering limited growth prospects and global food deflation. See opportunity in some of the international firms with much more compelling valuations and higher yields.
Discretionary Beneficiary of lower oil price and strong US consumer, but possible protectionist policies, rising oil prices, and wage inflation could put pressure on peak margins going forward.
Energy Starting to allocate to the sector, but most Energy ideas still not meeting the sustainability and valuation criteria for inclusion in the dividend portfolios at this time.
Utilities / Telecom /
REITs Remain underweight due to valuation concerns and interest rate sensitivity.
Materials On the margins, we are adding exposure to more diversified chemicals companies though avoiding mining companies and truly “commodity” chemicals.
The views expressed above are that of the HOLT Capital Discipline team and are based on publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. All opinions and views constitute judgments as of the date of writing without regard to the date on which the reader may receive or access the information, and are subject to change at any time without notice and with no obligation to update.
10
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
The Case for a Dividend Strategy:
Dividend stocks remain attractive
11
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Stocks remain attractive relative to bonds
• Bonds trade at a significant premium to equities if you compare them on a relative price to earnings (income) basis. The ten year US treasury trades at roughly 42x P/E, whereas the S&P 500 is closer to 20x.
• For only the second time in the past 35 years, the S&P 500 dividend yield has been higher than the 10 yr. treasury yield in 2016.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
PE
Ratio
(x)
US 10Yr Treasury - S&P 500 P/E Ratio
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Yie
ld (
%)
US 10Yr Treasury - S&P 500 Yield
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg; Data as of 11/30/2016 Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results.
12
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Continued increases in rates pose significant risk to FI investments
• With bond yields still historically low, an increase in yields would still have a large impact on bond prices. For example, if bond yields increased 1%, a 10 year US treasury purchased at par ($100) would be worth $91.60, which would effectively wipe out 3.6 years of the investors income from the bond.
Government
(Gov’t)
Investment Grade
(IG)
High Yield (HY)
Present Value $100 $100 $100
Yield 2.34% 3.36% 6.64%
Period (yrs) 10 10.46 5.4
Bond prices under rising rate scenarios… (Price / Years of Income)*
+25bps 97.8 / 0.9 97.8 / 0.6 98.9 / 0.2
+50bps 95.7 / 1.8 95.7 / 1.3 97.8 / 0.3
+100bps 91.6 / 3.6 91.7 / 2.5 95.6 / 0.7
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg as of 11/28/2016 Securities used: Government = USGG10YR Index, Investment Grade: BUSC Index, High Yield: BUHY Index *Assumes Present Value at par of $100. Price calculation assumes semi annual interest payment.
13
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Dividend Growth: A powerful multiplier for long-term investors
US Sustainable Dividend: 2.8% Dividend Yield Global Sustainable Dividend: 3.2% Dividend Yield
Dividend Growth
0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5%
Ye
ars
1 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%
2 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5%
3 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 4.0%
4 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 4.5%
5 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
10 2.8% 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 7.3% 9.1%
Dividend Growth
0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5%
Ye
ars
1 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
2 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1%
3 3.2% 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6%
4 3.2% 3.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.1%
5 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8%
10 3.2% 4.1% 5.2% 6.6% 8.3% 10.4%
• Dividend paying equities are different from other yielding investments, such as corporate or government bonds, in one very interesting way – investors’ yield on their initial investment may increase over time. While a company is unlikely to voluntarily increase its interest payment to debt holders, companies in strong financial
health routinely increase their dividend payments to equity holders.
• In a simplified scenario, if someone invested $100 in the Global Sustainable Dividend portfolio today they would generate $3.20 in income. If the portfolio constituents delivered 10% annualized dividend growth, in five years the investor would generate $5.20 on their initial investment.
Source: Credit Suisse, Bloomberg; Data as of 10/31/2016 Projections are not a guarantee or indicator of future performance.
14
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Reversal in flow should provide general boost to equities
• Following the rally in rates, US flows reversed recent course, with large outflows in bonds and significant inflows into equities.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research as of 11/19/16
15
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
The Sustainable Dividend strategies still make sense for investors
In a world of lower aggregate growth and low interest rates, the Sustainable Dividend portfolios offer an attractive solution for investors seeking a combination of current income, income growth, and capital appreciation.
• Blue Chip: Focuses on high-quality companies with deep, defensive moats and ample cash flows that have consistently delivered levels of CFROI®* with sustainable levels of growth.
• Sustainable Dividends: Targets capital disciplined companies with a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders.
• Attractive Valuations: Seeks capital appreciation by investing in companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
• Diversification: Well diversified across sectors, countries (where applicable) and balanced between cyclical and defensive companies.
*CFROI: Cash Flow Return on Investment
The views expressed above are that of the HOLT Capital Discipline team and are based on publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. All opinions and views constitute judgments as of the date of writing without regard to the date on which the reader may receive or access the information, and are subject to change at any time without notice and with no obligation to update.
16
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Trades
17
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
18
Sustainable Dividend Trades
GSD:
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
NVS Novartis AG 3.0% 2.0% -1.0% TRIM
RHHBY Roche Holding AG 3.4% 2.0% -1.4% TRIM
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 5.6% 4.6% -1.0% TRIM
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
EMN Eastman Chemical Co 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% BUY
SMSEY Samsonite International SA 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% BUY
WFC Wells Fargo & Co 1.8% 2.9% 1.1% UPWEIGHT
SLB Schlumberger Ltd 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% BUY
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
19
Sustainable Dividend Trades
USSD:
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
LLTC Linear Technology Corp 1.9% 0.0% -1.9% SELL
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
EMN Eastman Chemical Co 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% UPWEIGHT
WFC Wells Fargo & Co 2.3% 3.3% 1.0% UPWEIGHT
SLB Schlumberger Ltd 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% BUY
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
20
Sustainable Dividend Trades
ESD:
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
NOVN Novartis AG 5.3% 4.3% -1.0% TRIM
ROG Roche Holding AG 5.9% 4.4% -1.5% TRIM
SWEDA Swedbank AB 3.2% 2.2% -1.0% TRIM
SKY Sky PLC 3.2% 0.0% -3.2% SELL
Symbol Security NamePre
Rebalance
Post
RebalanceDelta Action
SMFKY Smurfit Kappa Group PLC 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% BUY
LYG Lloyds Banking Group PLC 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% BUY
SMIN Smiths Group PLC 1.5% 2.0% 0.5% UPWEIGHT
CON Continental AG 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% BUY
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Appendix
21
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Global Sustainable Dividend
US Sustainable Dividend
European Sustainable Dividend
Large Cap Core
Small Cap Blue Chip
HOLT Canada
Relative Performance
(indicative, gross of fee):
-2.1%
+3.2%
-3.9%
-7.2%
-0.5%
-6.6%
HOLT Strategies Performance YTD
22 Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
Data as of November 30, 2016 Gross Return Net Return Benchmark
Global Sustainable Dividend 3.46% 3.02% 5.58%
US Sustainable Dividend 12.98% 12.05% 9.79%
European Sustainable Dividend -9.22% -9.78% -5.36%
Large Cap Core 2.60% 1.86% 9.79%
Small Cap Blue Chip 17.46% 16.78% 17.97%
HOLT Canada 12.47% 10.80% 19.10%
Note: Year to date returns, with the exception of HOLT Canada, represent the strategies’ monthly composite returns through November 30, 2016 and the strategies’ month to date model portfolio returns as of November 30, 2016. HOLT Canada returns represent the strategy’s model portfolio performance since inception.
Source: Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC, Bloomberg; Data as of November 30, 2016
Sustainable Dividend Composite (Gross) Sustainable Growth Composite (Gross) Benchmark
Sustainable Dividend Composite (Net) Sustainable Growth Composite (Net)
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
HOLT Strategies Performance Since Inception
23 Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
Sustainable Dividend Composite (Gross) Sustainable Growth Composite (Gross) Benchmark
Sustainable Dividend Composite (Net) Sustainable Growth Composite (Net)
Data as of November 30, 2016 Gross Return Net Return Benchmark
Global Sustainable Dividend 8.44% 7.47% 6.09%
US Sustainable Dividend 14.22% 12.85% 12.28%
European Sustainable Dividend 1.49% 0.39% 1.64%
Large Cap Core 8.70% 7.45% 8.99%
Small Cap Blue Chip 13.74% 12.50% 13.15%
HOLT Canada 10.22% 8.58% 6.80%
Note: Year to date returns, with the exception of HOLT Canada, represent the strategies’ monthly composite returns through November 30, 2016 and the strategies’ month to date model portfolio returns as of November 30, 2016. HOLT Canada returns represent the strategy’s model portfolio performance since inception.
Source: Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC, Bloomberg; Data as of November 30, 2016
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Global Sustainable Dividend
US Sustainable Dividend
European Sustainable Dividend
Large Cap Core
Small Cap Blue Chip
HOLT Canada
Relative Performance
(indicative, gross of fee):
+2.3%
+1.9%
-0.2%
-0.3%
+0.6%
+3.4%
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Global Sustainable Dividend Portfolio
24
Since inception:
Data through close November 30, 2016, unless specified elsewhere
Source: Bloomberg; Composite Performance, gross & net of fees
*Returns greater than one year are annualized.
Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
STRATEGY STATISTICS
December 31, 2010 - November 30, 2016 Annualized
Return
Cumulative
Return Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio Up Capture
Down
Capture
Max
Drawdown
Tracking
Error Info Ratio Beta Correlation R2
Global Sustainable Dividend All World, Gross 8.4% 61.4% 10.2% 0.83 89.2% 69.7% -8.8% 5.2% 0.45 0.73 0.92 0.85
Global Sustainable Dividend All World, Net 7.5% 53.1% 10.2% 0.74 86.7% 72.7% -9.9% 5.2% 0.27 0.73 0.92 0.85
MSCI AC World Index 6.1% 41.9% 12.8% 0.48 - - -20.5% - - - - -
Relative (gross): 2.3% 19.5% -2.6% 11.7%
3.5% 2.9% 2.9%
8.3%
3.0% 2.4% 2.0%
7.3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr* 5-Yr*
Ab
so
lute
Perf
orm
ance
Performance of Active Global Dividend Funds
GSD, Gross
GSD, Net
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
25
Since inception:
Data through close November 30, 2016 unless specified elsewhere
Source: Bloomberg; Composite Performance, gross & net of fees
US Sustainable Dividend Portfolio
Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
STRATEGY STATISTICS
December 31, 2010 - November 30, 2016 Annualized
Return
Cumulative
Return Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio Up Capture
Down
Capture
Max
Drawdown
Tracking
Error Info Ratio Beta Correlation R2
US Sustainable Dividend, Gross 14.2% 119.6% 9.8% 1.46 91.7% 66.4% -7.7% 4.6% 0.43 0.78 0.92 0.85
US Sustainable Dividend, Net 12.8% 104.4% 9.8% 1.32 88.2% 70.8% -8.0% 4.6% 0.12 0.78 0.92 0.85
S&P 500 Index 12.3% 98.4% 11.5% 1.07 - - -16.3% - - - - -
Relative (gross): 1.9% 21.2% -1.7% 8.6%
13.0% 13.0%
10.5%
14.6%
12.0% 11.9%
9.2%
13.2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
YTD 1-Yr 3-Yr* 5-Yr*
Ab
so
lute
Pe
rfo
rmance
Performance of Active US Dividend Funds
USSD, Gross
USSD, Net
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Trade Summary
26
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Name & Ticker Portfolio Action Rationale Schlumberger Ltd
(SLB) GSD USSD
BUY Schlumberger is an oil services company that provides a wide range of services including
technology, project management, and information solutions to the international petroleum
industry as well as advanced acquisition and data processing surveys. Schlumberger meets
the criteria for a high quality, relatively low volatility, and sustainable dividend payer and adds
energy exposure.
Eastman Chemical
(EMN) GSD USSD
BUY
ADD
Eastman Chemical Company, a specialty chemical company, manufactures and sells
materials, chemicals, and fibers in the United States and internationally. Eastman has
reshaped its portfolio focusing on higher margin and less cyclical businesses, which along
with strong FCF generation (currently at ~9.5% FCF yield) and improving returns on capital
should lead to a higher valuation multiple as well.
Samsonite
International (SMSEY) GSD BUY Samsonite is a global retailer engaged in the design, manufacture, sourcing and distribution
of luggage, business and computer bags, outdoor and casual bags, and travel accessories.
The recent Tumi acquisition signals an aggressive growth strategy realized in top line growth
as well as significant dividend growth.
Wells Fargo (WFC) GSD
USSD ADD Wells Fargo offers a compelling dividend yield and relative valuation following the sell off
from its recent settlement. The company is positioned to benefit from continued strength in
the domestic economy and any rise in interest rates.
Lloyds Banking Group
PLC (LYG) ESD BUY Lloyds is an attractively valued financial firm focused on the UK retail market. The company
is the largest UK mortgage lender and has good asset quality. There is potential for strong
dividend growth as management is committed to returning excess capital.
Smurfit Kappa Group
PLC (SMFKY) ESD BUY Smurfit Kappa Group manufactures container boards, solid boards, graphic boards, and
corrugated and solid board packaging products. SKG is an attractively valued packaging
company with strong FCF generation and near term growth potential given along with
positive pricing trajectory. The company has the ability to both de-lever and increase the
dividend yield going forward
Continental AG (CON) ESD BUY Continental is the second largest automotive supplier and fourth largest tire manufacture
globally. Recent pull back in shares due to concerns over global volumes of new cars sold
provides an opportunity to buy into a quality blue chip at a reasonable price. Good execution
by management.
Smiths Group PLC
(SMIN) ESD ADD Smiths Group is a high-quality, UK-based industrial conglomerate that operates globally
across a diverse mix of end markets. Increasing the position in part due to the exposure to
the Energy sector (~30% of sales) along with improvement in general industrial exposure
across other divisions. Valuation is reasonable given the strong earnings growth prospects
over the next several years.
Sustainable Dividend: Buys / Upweights
27
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Sustainable Dividend: Sells/Trims
28
Name & Ticker Portfolio Action Rationale Roche Holding AG
(ROG) GSD ESD
TRIM While there is potential for long term value in Roche and other European pharmaceutical
names, near term headwinds offset near term upside. Concerns include the outcome in the
APHINITY trial, industry wide drug pricing issues, and an increase in competition on a few
key drugs.
Novartis AG (NOVN) GSD ESD
TRIM Novartis has experienced weakness in the Alcon eye care division, which has weighed on
results in recent quarters. Combined with patent expirations and a weak debut for Entresto,
a trim in the name given the substantial overweight in the sector and name makes sense.
Johnson & Johnson
(JNJ) GSD
TRIM Johnson & Johnson remains a top holding and a top idea in the portfolios due to the
diversified consumer-focused business. Trimming the name on risk mitigation due to long-
term strong performance.
Linear Technology
Corp (LLTC) USSD SELL Selling out due to acquisition by Analog Devices. The stock is up 44% YTD and selling
close to the deal price.
Sky PLC (SKY) ESD SELL Sky and 21st Century Fox are negotiating a deal for Fox to acquire the rest of Sky, a
company they already had a 39% ownership stake in. The stock is currently trading near
the deal price of £10.75, creating unsymmetrical risk around the completion of the deal.
Swedebank AB
(SWEDA) ESD TRIM Selling down position due to full valuation. The stock is up ca. 20% YTD. Increased risk
going forward as management invests in digital banking capabilities.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
Important Legal Information
This material has been prepared by Credit Suisse Asset Management, LLC (“Credit Suisse”) on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. All opinions and views constitute judgments as of the date of writing without regard to the date on which the reader may receive or access the information, and are subject to change at any time without notice and with no obligation to update. This material is for informational and illustrative purposes only and is intended solely for the information of those to whom it is distributed by Credit Suisse. No part of this material may be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written permission of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse does not represent, warrant or guarantee that this information is suitable for any investment purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse and it should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to consider. This material is not to be relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Past
performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
This material should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment products or to adopt any investment strategy. The securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for client accounts. The reader should not assume that any investments in companies, securities, sectors, strategies and/or markets identified or described herein were or will be profitable and no representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. This informational report does not constitute research and may not be used or relied upon in connection with any offer or sale of a security or hedge fund or fund of hedge funds. Performance differences for certain investors may occur due to various factors, including timing of investment and eligibility to participate in new issues. Investment return will fluctuate and may be volatile, especially over short time horizons. Each investor’s portfolio may be individually managed and may vary from the information shown in terms of portfolio holdings, characteristics and performance. Current and future portfolio compositions may be significantly different from the information shown herein. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of some or all of the
investor’s principal. The investment views and market opinions/analyses expressed herein may not reflect those of Credit Suisse Group AG as a whole and different views may be expressed based on different investment styles, objectives, views or philosophies. To the extent that these materials contain statements about the future, such statements are forward looking and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. The only legally binding terms of this investment product including risk considerations, objectives, charges and expenses are set forth in the investment management agreement and other documents which an end-user investor will agree to. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to enter into any type of financial transaction. The investment manager has no obligation to issue this investment product. Where not explicitly otherwise stated, the investment manager has no duty to invest in the underlying assets. Before deciding to invest, prospective investors must carefully read the relevant investment management agreement and other relevant documents and pay particular attention to the risk factors contained therein and determine if this investment product suits the investor’s particular circumstances and should independently assess (with the investor’s tax, legal and financial advisers) the specific risks (maximum loss, currency risks, etc.) and the legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Prospective investors should have the financial ability and willingness to accept the risk characteristics of this investment product. This investment product is intended only for investors who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Credit Suisse makes no representation as to the suitability of this investment product for any particular investor or as to the future performance of this investment product. This material is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Credit Suisse and/or its subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Materials furnished to the recipient should not be re-distributed without the expressed written consent of Credit Suisse. When distributed or accessed from the United Kingdom, this is distributed by Credit Suisse Asset Management Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. When distributed in or accessed from Switzerland, this is distributed by Credit Suisse AG and/or its affiliates. For further information, please contact your Relationship Manager. When distributed or accessed from Brazil, this is distributed by Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse (Brasil) S.A. and/or its affiliates.
29
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY
Not for Distribution to Prospective or Existing Clients
30
The charts, tables and graphs contained in this document are not intended to be used to assist the reader in determining which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell securities. The MSCI ACWI is a free float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across developed market countries. It covers approximately 85% of free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value. The MSCI Europe Index is a free float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across developed market countries in Europe. It covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European Developed Markets equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest U.S. companies, on a market capitalization basis, in the Russell 3000 Index. Benchmarks are used solely for purposes of comparison and the comparison does not mean that there will necessarily be a correlation between the returns described herein and the benchmarks. There are limitations in using financial indices for comparison purposes because, among other reasons, such indices may have different volatility, diversification, credit and other material characteristics (such as number or type of instrument or security). It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The investment strategies described herein rely on proprietary models and predictions with regard to the performance of an asset class or particular investment generated by these models and may not be accurate because of imperfections in the models, their deterioration over time, or other factors, such as the quality of the data input into the model, which involves the exercise of judgment. Even if the model functions as anticipated, it cannot account for all factors that may influence the prices of the investments, such as event risk. The HOLT methodology does not assign ratings or a target price to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in the HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. These adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variables may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur. Additional information about the HOLT methodology is available on request. CFROI, CFROE, HOLT, HOLT Lens, HOLTfolio, HOLTSelect, HS60, HS40, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag, Forecaster, “Clarity is Confidence” and “Powered by HOLT” are trademarks or registered trademarks of Credit Suisse Group AG or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse. © Copyright 2016. CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved
Important Legal Information