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November 2011
Agenda
• Final Analyses Results
• Capital Costs
• Operating Plan
• Operating and Maintenance Costs
• Ridership and Revenue
• Operating Ratio Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Benefit-Cost Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Next Steps
Study looks at the feasibility of three corridors in the
southeast: • Atlanta - Birmingham
• Atlanta - Macon - Savannah - Jacksonville
• Atlanta - Chattanooga - Nashville - Louisville
What is a feasibility study? • First step in the transportation planning process
• Feasibility gives a better idea of project prioritization
and funding opportunities
What is it not? • Does not provide detailed cost and revenue forecasts;
all estimates are based on high-level data
• Does not make a recommendation for a preferred
alignment
Study Overview
4
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Technology
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and
Revenue
Federal Funding
Next Steps
Q&A
First step of a long planning/implementation process:
Corridor Overview
We are here
Tier I EIS
Tier II EIS
Preliminary
Design
Final Design
Right-of-way
Acquisition
Construction
Operation
Feasibility
Study
Year 1
Year 2
-3
Year 4
-5
Yea
r 6-8
Y
ear
9
Year 1
0-1
5
Year 16+
Corridor Overview
Technology Alternatives
Shared Use Dedicated Use
Speed (Average) 90-110 mph 180-220 mph
Fuel/Energy Diesel Electrified
Alignment Existing Freight Corridors New Alignment
Track Single Track with Sidings Double Track
Train Delay Probability High Low
Atlanta – Macon - Jacksonville
Two representative alignments and technologies:
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Capital Costs
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Methodologies
• Costs estimated for both Shared Use and Dedicated Use
• Follow Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Standard
Costing Categories (SCC):
• Key assumptions: All infrastructure improvements for shared-use corridors can be done inside
the existing freight right-of-way (100-ft)
Proposed right-of-way for dedicated-use corridors is 100-ft (rural) or 60’
(urban)
SCC
10 Track Structures & Track
20 Stations, Terminals, Intermodal
30 Support Facilities
40 Sitework, Right-of-Way
50 Signals & Communication
60 Electric Traction
70 Equipment
80 Professional Services
Capital Costs
Cost Summary
Shared Use Dedicated Use
Total Cost $5.0 Billion $16.1 Billion
Cost ($/Mile) $11.5 Million $41.3 Million
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Operating Plan and Costs
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Methodologies
• Operating Plan primarily based on track geometry (curves)
and existing/future freight volumes
• O&M Costs based on Variable and Fixed cost categories:
Variable Costs
Train Crew
On-Board Services
Equipment Maintenance
Fuel or Energy
Insurance
Call Center
Credit Card + Travel Agency Commissions
Fixed Costs
Stations
Track and Electrification Maintenance
Administration and Management
Operating Plan
Shared Use
Segment Rail
Distance
Travel
Time
Cumulative
Travel Time
Average
Speed (mph)
Frequencies
(Round Trips)
Atlanta (MMPT) 0.0 0:00 0:00 0 8
Atlanta (Airport) 9.0 0:08 0:08 65 8
Griffin 34.9 0:31 0:39 67 8
Macon 58.2 0:50 1:29 69 8
Savannah 169.0 2:16 3:45 74 8
Brunswick 57.3 0:39 4:24 87 8
Jacksonville 80.4 0:54 5:18 89 8
Total 408.6 5:18 5:18 77 8
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Operating Plan
Dedicated Use
Segment Rail
Distance
Travel
Time
Cumulative
Travel Time
Average
Speed (mph)
Frequencies
(Round Trips)
Atlanta (MMPT) 0.0 0:00 0:00 0 28
Atlanta (Airport) 7.4 0:06 0:06 76 28
Griffin
Macon 77.7 0:42 0:48 112 28
Savannah 147.6 1:01 1:49 146 28
Brunswick 55.6 0:25 2:14 131 28
Jacksonville 79.9 0:35 2:49 138 28
Total 368.1 2:49 2:49 131 28
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Operating and Maintenance Costs
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Annual Shared Use O&M Costs (2010$ millions)
2021 2030 2040
Variable Costs $60.1 $62.8 $65.6
Fixed Cost $35.6 $35.6 $35.6
Total Cost $95.7 $98.5 $101.2
Annual Dedicated Use O&M Costs (2010$ millions)
2021 2030 2040
Variable Costs $109.1 $113.9 $118.7
Fixed Cost $80.9 $80.9 $80.9
Total Cost $190.1 $194.8 $199.6
Ridership and Revenue Summary
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Methodologies
• Ridership based on:
• Fare Structure
• Operation Plan (Train Frequencies and Travel Times)
• Existing and Future Demographics
• County to County Travel Patterns
• Mode-sharing
• Includes increased congestion and fuel costs
• Three fare structures modeled for each representative alignment:
HSR Fares Shared Use Dedicated Use
Boarding Fee $5.00 $5.00
Fare per Mile – Scenario 1 $0.20 $0.40
Fare per Mile – Scenario 2 $0.28 $0.55
Fare per Mile – Scenario 3 $0.40 $0.70
Total Corridor Fare (range) $86.80-$168.60 $152.20-$262.60
Ridership and Revenue Summary
Year Annual Volume and Revenue
Scenario 1 -
$0.20/mile
Scenario 2 -
$0.28/mile
Scenario 3 -
$0.40/mile
2021 2,347,000 2,011,000 1,515,000
$99.8 M $107.1 M $100.6 M
2030 2,806,000 2,353,000 1,799,000
$124.7 M $133.9 M $126.3 M
2040 3,265,000 2,732,000 2,083,000
$149.6 M $160.8 M $152.1 M
Shared Use (Two-Way) Passenger Volumes (Intercity + Local)
Dedicated Use (Two-Way) Passenger Volumes (Intercity + Local)
Year Annual Volume and Revenue
Scenario 1 -
$0.40/mile
Scenario 2 -
$0.55/mile
Scenario 3 -
$0.70/mile
2021 2,355,000 1,784,000 1,440,000
$177.1 M $171.4 M $159.0 M
2030 2,745,000 2,113,000 1,689,000
$218.5 M $211.7 M $194.0 M
2040 3,178,000 2,442,000 1,938,000
$260.0 M $251.9 M $229.1 M
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Ridership and Revenue Summary
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Operating Ratio Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Methodology
• Measure the difference between potential revenues and
potential operating/maintenance costs
• Revenues include:
• Ticket Fares
• On-Board Services
• Costs include:
• O&M Fixed Costs
• O&M Variable Costs
Calculate Operating Surplus (or Deficit)
Operating Surplus (Deficit) = Total Revenue - Total O&M Cost
Calculate Operating Ratio
Operating Ratio = Total Revenue / Total O&M Cost (A positive [>1.0] reduces operating risks)
Operating Ratio Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Shared Use Proforma (2010$ millions)
2021 2030 2040
Revenues (Assumes Fare = $0.28/mile + $5 Boarding Fee)
Ticket Revenue $110.0 $134.0 $161.0
On-Board Services $10.0 $12.0 $15
Total Revenues $120.0 $146.0 $314.0
Operating and Maintenance Expenses
Variable $60.1 $62.8 $65.6
Fixed $35.6 $35.6 $35.6
Total Expenses $95.7 $98.5 $101.2
Operating Surplus (Deficit) $24.3 $47.5 $212.8
Operating Ratio 1.25 1.48 1.73
Operating Ratio Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Dedicated Use Proforma (2010$ millions)
2021 2030 2040
Revenues (Assumes Fare = $0.40/mile + $5 Boarding Fee)
Ticket Revenue $181.0 $219.0 $260.0
On-Board Services $36.0 $44.0 $52.0
Total Revenues $217.0 $262.0 $312.0
Operating and Maintenance Expenses
Variable $109.1 $113.9 $118.7
Fixed $80.9 $80.9 $80.9
Total Expenses $190.1 $194.8 $199.6
Operating Surplus (Deficit) $26.9 $67.2 $112.4
Operating Ratio 1.14 1.36 1.56
Operating Ratio Sensitivity Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
• Developed a range of ridership and revenue for the corridor, which accounts for:
– Unforeseen increases in fuel and congestion
– The high-level, broad estimates from a feasibility study
• Focused the Operating Ratio sensitivity analysis on Dedicated Use:
– Conservative Scenario (base ridership/revenue)
– Optimistic Scenario (increased ridership/revenue)
Operating Ratio Sensitivity Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Estimated Feasibility Ratios 2021 2030 2040
Conservative
Shared Use 1.25 1.48 1.73
Dedicated Use 1.14 1.35 1.56
Optimistic
Shared Use 1.25 1.48 1.73
Dedicated Use 2.04 2.17 2.29
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Benefit-Cost Analysis compares all benefits against all costs to
determine if high-speed rail is a sound investment (feasible) and
allows for comparisons and rankings of individual corridors.
Inputs of the benefit-cost analysis:
Net-Present Value: Present worth of cash flows (incoming and
outgoing) over a series of time.
- Values discounted to 2010$ (discount rate of 3%)
Analysis presents a Benefit-Cost Ratio, where:
> 1.0 = Positive
< 1.0 = Negative
Benefits Costs
Fare Revenues Capital Costs
Consumer Surplus Operating Costs
Resources Maintenance Costs
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
2035 Annual Benefits (2010$ millions)
Dedicated Use Shared Use
Fare Revenue $186.9 $115.1
Consumer Surplus $129.4 $95.3
Resource and Other Mode Benefits $54.0 $39.6
Total Benefits $370.3 $250.0
• Consumer Surplus: value of time saved
• Resource Benefits: congestion, emissions, etc.
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Benefit-Cost Scenarios of Shared and Dedicated Use:
These benefit-cost scenarios led to a potential “hybrid” option
Estimated Benefit-Cost Ratios
Conservative
Shared Use 0.92
Dedicated Use 0.49
Intermediate
Shared Use 1.00
Dedicated Use 0.93
Optimistic
Shared Use 1.07
Dedicated Use 1.12
25
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Final Observations
• Potential High Performance Rail (hybrid) Opportunity
• Dedicated, single track with passing sidings; initial diesel-electric power (full electrification and additional capacity when ridership/revenue demands)
Capital Cost Benefits of High Performance:
Operating Ratio Results Benefit-Cost Results
Cost Summary (2010$)
Shared Use Dedicated Use High Performance
Total Cost $5.0 Billion $16.1 Billion $8.9 Billion
Cost ($/Mile) $11.5 Million $41.3 Million $22.8 Million
Benefit-Cost
Conservative
High Performance 0.63
Intermediate
High Performance 1.21
Optimistic
High Performance 1.48
2021 2030 2040
Conservative
High Performance 1.03 1.21 1.41
Optimistic
High Performance 1.86 2.17 2.39
Final Observations
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
Shared Use vs. Dedicated Use vs. High Performance
Shared Use Dedicated Use High Performance
Capital and
O&M Costs
• Lower Capital Costs and
O&M Costs
• Higher Capital Costs and
O&M Costs
• Mid-range initial
capital costs
Ridership/
Revenue
• lower overall ridership
and revenue
• Higher overall ridership and
revenue
• Mid-range ridership
and revenue
Operating
Ratios
• Presents positive
operating ratio
beginning in 2021
• Potential for higher
operating ratios with
higher
ridership/revenue
• Presents positive
operating ratio beginning
in 2021
• Potential for higher
operating ratios with
higher ridership/revenue
• Likely to presents
positive operating
ratio beginning in
2021, but is higher
than both Shared Use
and Dedicated
Advantages
• Lower costs
• Higher ridership
• Positive operating ratios
in 2021
• Higher revenue
• No freight traffic delays
• Significant decrease in
travel time/ increase in
Level of Service
• Lower initial costs
• No freight delays
• Higher operating
ratio and B-C ratio
• Ability to upgrade
Disadvantages
• Potential delays
• Longer travel times
• Lower revenue
• Higher capital and O&M
costs
• Lower ridership
• Benefit cost is only
positive under optimistic
scenario.
• No electrification
initially; diesel-
electric power
27
Next Steps
Alignments/Stations
Capital Costs
Operating Plan
O&M Costs
Ridership and Revenue
Operating Ratio
Benefit-Cost
Final Observations
Next Steps
We are here
• Submit study for Federal Railroad Administration
approval
• If corridor is determined feasible, any stakeholders could
strategize for future federal funding for an
Environmental Study
• Update State Rail Plans to reflect findings and goals
moving forward
Visit us on the web:
www.newsouthhsr.org