Hit Tracker Power Projection

Aaron Rowand 1-year report:2008 Projections, using 2007 data

Hit Tracker Power Projection Method

• Observation and analysis of all long fly balls (any ball hit far enough to approach or clear the outfield fence of any MLB ballpark) for specified time period (1-3 seasons)• Projection of each long fly ball, via Hit Tracker, into each of the 30 MLB parks, in each park’s average weather conditions.• Evaluation of each projected ball as home run, off wall or “catchable”.• Evaluation of each “catchable” ball via range model as Flyout or hit.• Compilation of projected results for each ballpark, via substitution of projected results for actual results, and weighted towards more recent results (e.g. 3-2-1 weighting if 3-year analysis).• Compilation of projected results as member of each team via 2009 schedule

The Hit Tracker Power Projection method uses detailed individual analysis of every long fly ball hit by a player, and the ability to project those fly balls into other parks and weather conditions, to create the most accurate possible projection of a player’s future hitting performance.

Key Steps:

= FLY OUT

= 2B

= 3B

= HR

= 1B

Long Fly Balls, Actual Landing Spots

Aaron Rowand, 2007

= LINE OUT

200’

250’

300’

400’

350’

450’

500’

Date HitterHitter Team Pitcher

Pitcher Team Inning Ballpark True Dist. SOB

Elev. Angle

Horiz. Angle Outcome

4/7/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Willis, Dontrelle FLA 4 Dolphins Stadium 351 95.4 25.4 102.3 FLY4/18/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Colome, Jesus WAS 11 RFK Stadium 365 106.4 22.4 115.7 2B4/19/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Patterson, John WAS 2 RFK Stadium 364 101.1 26.5 117.1 HR4/19/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Speigner, Levale WAS 5 RFK Stadium 390 106 23 82.7 FLY4/21/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Milton, Eric CIN 5 Great American Ball Park 398 103.3 27 88.2 FLY4/21/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Santos, Victor CIN 8 Great American Ball Park 362 101.4 39.7 119.6 HR4/24/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Bergmann, Jason WAS 2 Citizens Bank Park 369 101.7 24 80.4 2B4/24/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Rivera, Saul WAS 7 Citizens Bank Park 391 104.2 27.7 109.9 HR4/26/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hill, Shawn WAS 8 Citizens Bank Park 402 103.7 34.2 95.6 HR4/27/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Sanchez, Anibal FLA 2 Citizens Bank Park 369 100.8 26.8 110.6 HR5/5/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hennessey, Brad SF 8 AT&T Park 396 116.2 17.4 95.1 2B5/16/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Suppan, Jeff MIL 2 Citizens Bank Park 381 103.5 27.9 111.8 HR5/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Sheets, Ben MIL 8 Citizens Bank Park 339 95.5 28.5 57.6 2B5/20/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Litsch, Jesse TOR 3 Citizens Bank Park 427 107.5 30.1 100.2 HR6/3/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Lincecum, Tim SF 4 Citizens Bank Park 405 105.8 25.6 98.1 HR6/5/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Wagner, Billy NYM 9 Shea Stadium 360 105.4 20.8 122.6 2B6/11/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Vazquez, Javier CWS 6 Citizens Bank Park 354 97.6 24.6 75 LO6/13/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Thornton, Matt CWS 7 Citizens Bank Park 366 104.5 22.7 117.6 HR6/15/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Byrdak, Tim DET 7 Citizens Bank Park 331 90.5 28.9 70 FLY6/16/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Miller, Andrew DET 3 Citizens Bank Park 373 99.4 27 70.7 HR6/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Verlander, Justin DET 3 Citizens Bank Park 318 101.4 17.4 79.2 2B6/18/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Lee, Cliff CLE 6 Jacobs Field 366 98 25.9 68.1 LO6/19/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hernandez, Roberto CLE 9 Jacobs Field 376 108.2 18.9 96.9 LO6/22/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Reyes, Anthony STL 2 Busch Stadium 373 94.5 34 76.1 FLY6/22/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Cavazos, Andy STL 7 Busch Stadium 378 99.9 24.1 95.2 FLY6/27/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Weathers, David CIN 9 Citizens Bank Park 402 98.8 35.5 92.4 FLY6/29/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hernandez, Orlando NYM 2 Citizens Bank Park 382 107.6 21.7 110.8 HR7/6/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Francis, Jeff COL 1 Coors Field 381 91.2 36.1 73.6 2B7/6/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Francis, Jeff COL 2 Coors Field 433 101 29.4 83.4 2B7/13/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Percival, Troy STL 5 Citizens Bank Park 334 88.8 33.3 67.2 FLY7/14/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Maroth, Mike STL 3 Citizens Bank Park 421 108.5 26.2 114 HR7/14/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Maroth, Mike STL 5 Citizens Bank Park 350 109.5 17.3 116.4 2B7/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Stults, Eric LAD 4 Dodger Stadium 393 104.1 24.2 86 2B7/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Stults, Eric LAD 5 Dodger Stadium 348 100.9 23.1 119.5 2B7/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Seanez, Rudy LAD 7 Dodger Stadium 434 108.1 26.9 91.3 HR7/18/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Billingsley, Chad LAD 3 Dodger Stadium 371 97.6 26.8 99 2B7/19/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Young, Chris SD 2 PETCO Park 351 93.5 32 108.3 FLY7/21/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Wells, Jared SD 4 PETCO Park 377 97.6 33.6 79 FLY7/21/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Ring, Royce SD 7 PETCO Park 336 92.3 30.5 62.3 FLY7/22/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Peavy, Jake SD 3 PETCO Park 370 99.2 25.6 72 FLY

Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 1 of 2

Aaron Rowand, 2007

Aaron Rowand, 2007

Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 2 of 2

Date HitterHitter Team Pitcher

Pitcher Team Inning Ballpark True Dist. SOB

Elev. Angle

Horiz. Angle Outcome

7/24/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Traber, Billy WAS 6 Citizens Bank Park 368 101.2 22.7 75.4 2B7/24/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Ayala, Luis WAS 8 Citizens Bank Park 390 106 39.4 115 HR7/29/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Snell, Ian PIT 3 Citizens Bank Park 341 101.8 20.7 113.8 2B7/30/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Lilly, Ted CHC 3 Wrigley Field 431 107.7 28 85.8 HR8/1/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hill, Rich CHC 5 Wrigley Field 398 104.3 24.7 98.6 HR8/3/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Gallardo, Yovani MIL 5 Miller Park 341 93.3 36.5 69.8 FLY8/8/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Miller, Justin FLA 6 Citizens Bank Park 413 104.4 28.9 85.5 HR8/9/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Mitre, Sergio FLA 1 Citizens Bank Park 340 102.2 20.8 117.4 LO8/11/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Soriano, Rafael ATL 8 Citizens Bank Park 388 103.7 24.7 78.3 HR8/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Gorzelanny, Tom PIT 5 PNC Park 396 100.6 35.1 77.4 HR8/21/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Tomko, Brett LAD 4 Citizens Bank Park 350 96.1 34.1 113.6 HR8/30/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hernandez, Orlando NYM 3 Citizens Bank Park 393 108.2 21.5 104.9 HR8/30/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Feliciano, Pedro NYM 6 Citizens Bank Park 352 104.1 20 71.6 LO9/2/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Olsen, Scott FLA 2 Dolphins Stadium 333 94.1 23.8 69.8 FLY9/2/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Olsen, Scott FLA 3 Dolphins Stadium 345 92.9 34.7 115.4 2B9/2/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Barone, Daniel FLA 5 Dolphins Stadium 322 95.3 46.4 98.3 FLY9/5/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Hudson, Tim ATL 2 Turner Field 386 102.5 23.8 96.6 2B9/5/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Villarreal, Oscar ATL 7 Turner Field 337 98.5 21.4 70.6 FLY9/9/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Gardner, Lee FLA 6 Citizens Bank Park 342 106.2 17.3 104.1 LO9/15/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Feliciano, Pedro NYM 8 Shea Stadium 395 102.9 37.6 111.6 HR9/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Thompson, Brad STL 4 Busch Stadium 433 108 27.4 97.4 HR9/17/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Isringhausen, Jason STL 9 Busch Stadium 405 103.3 36.8 101.1 HR9/18/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Wells, Kip STL 6 Busch Stadium 372 115.5 15.9 87.6 LO9/19/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Wainwright, Adam STL 2 Busch Stadium 350 112.8 15.5 100 2B9/22/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Redding, Tim WAS 6 Nationals Park 400 102.9 28.5 83.3 2B9/27/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Smoltz, John ATL 3 Citizens Bank Park 323 90.7 29 55 2B9/29/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Chico, Matt WAS 7 Citizens Bank Park 416 113 23.2 113.7 HR9/29/2007 Rowand, Aaron PHI Rauch, Jon WAS 8 Citizens Bank Park 371 101.5 36.7 97.7 FLY

Park Net 1B Net 2B/3B Net HR Net FLY Net Hits Net Bases BA OBP SLG OPSGreat American Ball Park 0 -6 7 -1 1 16 0.310 0.375 0.541 0.916Dodger Stadium 0 -5 6 -1 1 14 0.310 0.375 0.538 0.913U.S. Cellular Field 0 -6 6 0 0 12 0.309 0.374 0.534 0.908Metrodome 0 2 1 -3 3 8 0.314 0.378 0.528 0.906Yankee Stadium 0 -4 4 1 0 8 0.309 0.374 0.528 0.902Citizens Bank Park 0 -1 2 0 1 6 0.310 0.375 0.525 0.900Rangers Ballpark in Arlington 0 -1 1 0 0 2 0.309 0.374 0.518 0.892Miller Park 0 -3 2 2 -1 2 0.307 0.372 0.518 0.890Oriole Park at Camden Yards 0 -3 2 1 -1 2 0.307 0.372 0.518 0.890Minute Maid Park 0 7 -4 -3 3 -2 0.314 0.378 0.511 0.890Tropicana Field 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.309 0.374 0.515 0.889Busch Stadium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.309 0.374 0.515 0.889Fenway Park 0 8 -5 -3 3 -4 0.314 0.378 0.508 0.886Nationals Park 0 -4 2 2 -2 0 0.306 0.371 0.515 0.886Progressive Field 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 0.309 0.374 0.511 0.885PETCO Park 0 -1 0 1 -1 -2 0.307 0.372 0.511 0.884AT&T Park 0 2 -2 0 0 -4 0.309 0.374 0.508 0.882Dolphins Stadium 0 5 -4 -1 1 -6 0.310 0.375 0.505 0.880Safeco Field 0 2 -3 2 -1 -8 0.307 0.372 0.502 0.874Coors Field 0 3 -4 1 -1 -10 0.307 0.372 0.498 0.871Wrigley Field 0 1 -3 2 -2 -10 0.306 0.371 0.498 0.869Angels Stadium 0 3 -5 2 -2 -14 0.306 0.371 0.492 0.863Rogers Centre 0 4 -6 2 -2 -16 0.306 0.371 0.489 0.860McAfee Coliseum 0 2 -5 3 -3 -16 0.304 0.370 0.489 0.858Turner Field 0 0 -4 4 -4 -16 0.302 0.368 0.489 0.857Chase Field 0 4 -7 3 -3 -20 0.304 0.370 0.482 0.852Shea Stadium 0 1 -6 5 -5 -22 0.301 0.367 0.479 0.845PNC Park 0 4 -8 4 -4 -24 0.302 0.368 0.475 0.844Comerica Park 0 4 -8 4 -4 -24 0.302 0.368 0.475 0.844Kauffman Stadium 0 6 -11 5 -5 -32 0.301 0.367 0.462 0.829Average 0.0 0.8 -1.8 1.1 -0.9 -5.4 0.307 0.373 0.506 0.878

Projected Events Averages

Projected 2008 Batted Ball Events and Averages by Ballpark

Aaron Rowand, 2007

Park HR RankAngels Stadium 23.4 22AT&T Park 26.6 15Busch Stadium 28.8 11Chase Field 21.3 27Shea Stadium 22.4 25Citizens Bank Park 30.9 5Comerica Park 20.3 28Coors Field 24.5 18Dodger Stadium 35.2 2Dolphins Stadium 24.5 18Fenway Park 23.4 22Great American Ball Park 36.2 1Kauffman Stadium 17.1 30McAfee Coliseum 23.4 22Metrodome 29.8 9Miller Park 30.9 5Minute Maid Park 24.5 18Nationals Park 30.9 5Yankee Stadium 33.0 4Oriole Park at Camden Yards 30.9 5PETCO Park 28.8 11PNC Park 20.3 28Progressive Field 27.7 14Rangers Ballpark in Arlington 29.8 9Rogers Centre 22.4 25Safeco Field 25.6 16Tropicana Field 28.8 11Turner Field 24.5 18U.S. Cellular Field 35.2 2Wrigley Field 25.6 16Average 26.9

2009 HR per 162 Games

Projected 2008 Home Runs per 162 games by Ballpark

Aaron Rowand, 2007

Team HR BA OBP SLG% OPSCIN 29.2 0.309 0.374 0.521 0.895LAD 29.0 0.309 0.374 0.521 0.895CWS 28.5 0.308 0.373 0.518 0.891MIN 26.3 0.310 0.375 0.515 0.890NYY 27.6 0.308 0.373 0.515 0.889PHI 27.1 0.308 0.374 0.514 0.888HOU 24.6 0.311 0.375 0.510 0.886BAL 27.1 0.308 0.373 0.512 0.885MIL 27.0 0.307 0.373 0.512 0.885TB 25.9 0.308 0.373 0.510 0.883BOS 23.9 0.310 0.375 0.508 0.883TEX 26.1 0.308 0.373 0.510 0.883STL 26.1 0.308 0.373 0.510 0.883WAS 27.1 0.306 0.372 0.510 0.882SD 26.2 0.307 0.372 0.509 0.881CLE 25.3 0.308 0.373 0.507 0.880SF 25.2 0.308 0.373 0.507 0.880FLA 24.2 0.309 0.374 0.505 0.879CHC 25.0 0.307 0.372 0.504 0.876SEA 24.4 0.307 0.372 0.503 0.875COL 24.1 0.307 0.372 0.502 0.874TOR 23.4 0.307 0.372 0.499 0.871OAK 23.9 0.306 0.371 0.499 0.870LAA 23.4 0.306 0.372 0.498 0.870ATL 24.5 0.305 0.370 0.499 0.869ARI 22.8 0.306 0.371 0.495 0.866PIT 22.8 0.305 0.371 0.494 0.864NYM 23.5 0.304 0.370 0.494 0.864DET 21.9 0.305 0.370 0.491 0.861KC 20.8 0.304 0.370 0.485 0.855Average 25.2 0.307 0.373 0.506 0.878

Projected 2008 Home Runs and Averages by Team

Aaron Rowand, 2007

HR BA OBP SLG% OPS2007 Actual 27 0.309 0.374 0.515 0.8892008 Projected 25 0.308 0.373 0.507 0.8802008 Actual 13 0.271 0.339 0.410 0.749

Comparison to Actual 2008 Results

Aaron Rowand, 2007

Rowand’s 2008 projection was off significantly when compared to his actual full season in 2008. However, the Hit Tracker projection system cannot predict the impact of “playing hurt” (nor can any projection system, for that matter). Rowand played in 152 games in 2008, but he really played two different seasons, divided by a right quadriceps injury he sustained on June 6th:

HR BA OBP SLG% OPS2008 Projected 25 0.308 0.373 0.507 0.8802008 Actual Through 6/6 23* 0.330 0.396 0.526 0.9222008 Actual After 6/6 9* 0.235 0.303 0.338 0.641

* Prorated for full season

Rowand’s performance during the first 10 weeks of the 2008 season corresponded quite well with his Hit Tracker projection for the Giants, considering the limited sample size of less than 1/3 of a season. The data suggests that Rowand’s offensive output was severely reduced by his unhealed injury, but his prospects for a return to productivity, if healthy, are promising…