Historical Perspective

Agriculture and the Economy

FARM PRODUCTIVITY

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

IND

EX

19

96

= 1

00

Total Factor Productivity

PRODUCTION INPUTS

0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

2.0000

2.5000

3.0000

3.5000

Year 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Ind

ex 1

996=

100

Years

Labor, Chemicals and Equipment Use Index

Labor Chemicals Eqipment

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Year 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997

Ind

ex

199

6=10

0

Year

Fertilizer and Pesticide Use

Fertilizer Pesticides

Adoption of Genetically Engineered Crops

HARVESTED CROP ACRES

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

Mil

lio

ns

of

Ac

res

Harvested Cropland Acres

REAL FARM INCOME

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

Billions $ (2005=100)

Real Farm Income

U.S. Agricultural Exports and Imports

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Mill

ion

s o

f $

Agricultural Exports

Agricultural Imports

U. S. Agricultural Trade Balance

(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Mill

ion

s o

f $

Agricultural Trade Balance

FARM REAL ESTATE VALUES(Land and Buildings)

0500

1000150020002500$ Per Acre Farm Real EstateValues

Nominal Value Real Value

INFLATION AND MONEY SUPPLY

-5

0

5

10

15

Per

cen

t A

nn

ual

Ch

ang

e

Year

Consumer Price Inflation and Growth in Money Supply

Change in Money Supply Change in CPI

Monetary Base

QE 2

QE 1

QE 3

Reserve Balances with FED

Real Gross Domestic Product

M2 Money Velocity

-202468

1012

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010%

Pri

me

le

ss %

Cha

nge

in

CP

I

REAL PRIME INTEREST RATE

REAL PRIME INTEREST RATES

Bank Prime Loan Rate

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

March 1977 – August 2009U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

• http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve

Current Treasury Yield Curve

3 MO vs. 10 Year Treasury Rates

10 Year Treasury Bond Minus3 Month Treasury Bill

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2006/06/visualizing-probability-of-recession.html

•http://www.x-rates.com/