9
July 23, 2019 1 Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs1,690 | TP: Rs1,816 Upgrade to Accumulate; Growth Levers intact We upgrade HUVR from HOLD to Accumulate given that HUVR should emerge as one of the biggest gainers from Govt’s social push aimed at bottom end of pyramid and increase in rural purchasing power on improved monsoons and food inflation. Although 2Q outlook remains uncertain, We remain structurally positive on HUVR led by 1) expansion in categories of future by launching liquid detergent in Sunlight 2) increased thrust on naturals with launch of Lux botanicals and Pears Naturale, two variants in Sunsilk and FAL Ayurveda facewash and facial kits 3) sustained Premiumisation in Home Care 4) synergy gains from acquisition of Glaxo Consumer healthcare and 5) sustained gains (70bps in 1QFy20) from cost efficiencies in supply chain, data analytics and inventory management. Benign competitive environment, improved product mix and cost efficiencies gives us comfort to increase our EBIDTA margin estimates by 30bps over FY19-21 (110bps expansion) leading to 1.3% and 0.6% increase in EPS estimates for FY20 and FY21. We estimate FY21 pro-forma EPS including GSK acquisition of Rs38.3 and value the stock at 46xJune21 arriving at target price of Rs1816. We strongly advise Accumulating HUL in uncertain markets. Concall Takeaways: 1) Rural demand growing at par with Urban demand 2) Price cuts of 4-6% taken in select categories of Beauty and Personal Care; higher cuts in Lux and Lifebuoy to pass on benefits of benign input costs as palm oil has declined by 18.7% in 1Q20 3) Merger process with GSK and Integration of acquisition of Adityaa Milk Ice-cream is on track. 4) Competitive activity has remained muted across categories resulting in lower ad-spends 5) While Lever Ayush and Close up have done well in oral care, Pepsodent is still work in progress 6) Tazaa brand is doing well due to migration from loose to packaged tea 7) CSD channels has remained erratic and would take time to stabilize. Volumes up 5%, PAT up 11.7%: Net sales increased 6.6% to Rs101.1bn led by 5% volume growth and 7% Domestic consumer sales. Gross margin remained flat at 54%. EBIDTA increased 17.6% to Rs26.5bn. EBIDTA margins expanded by 240bps on decline in staff costs, ad-spends and other expenses by 20bps, 70bps and 150bps respectively. Excluding of IndAS 116 impact, EBITDA increased 13% with 150bps margin expansion. Adj. PAT increased 11.7% to Rs17.5bn as other income increased by 8.9%. Home Care sales up 10.1% and EBIT up 16.1% on 100bps margin expansion. Personal care sales up 4.1%, EBIT up 16.9% on 320bps margin expansion. Foods and Refreshments sales up 9.2%, EBIT up 13.5% on 70bps margin expansion. In 1Q20, HUL steps up launches in Naturals segment: HUL has stepped up launches in naturals segment with FAL Ayurveda in facewash and facial kits, Lux Botanicals and Pears Naturale in soaps, and 2 natural variants in Sunsilk. HUL relaunched Rin brand nationally and Sunlight liquid detergent. In personal care it re-launched Pond’s Men range and Elle 18 Lasting Glow Compact. Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update Change in Estimates | Target | Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Rating ACCUMULATE HOLD Target Price 1,816 1,753 Sales (Rs. m) 421,041 466,638 419,735 465,214 % Chng. 0.3 0.3 EBITDA (Rs. m) 98,810 110,544 96,483 108,702 % Chng. 2.4 1.7 EPS (Rs.) 31.5 35.1 31.1 34.9 % Chng. 1.2 0.5 Key Financials - Standalone Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Sales (Rs. bn) 345 382 421 467 EBITDA (Rs. bn) 73 86 99 111 Margin (%) 21.1 22.6 23.5 23.7 PAT (Rs. bn) 53 63 68 76 EPS (Rs.) 24.5 29.0 31.5 35.1 Gr. (%) 24.7 18.2 8.7 11.5 DPS (Rs.) 18.0 21.0 24.1 27.9 Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 RoE (%) 78.1 85.0 86.1 91.4 RoCE (%) 100.2 110.1 115.9 123.4 EV/Sales (x) 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 49.3 41.5 36.2 32.4 PE (x) 68.9 58.3 53.6 48.1 P/BV (x) 51.6 47.7 44.8 43.0 Key Data HLL.BO | HUVR IN 52-W High / Low Rs.1,871 / Rs.1,477 Sensex / Nifty 37,983 / 11,331 Market Cap Rs.3,659bn/ $ 53,058m Shares Outstanding 2,165m 3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.4090.58m Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter’s 67.18 Foreign 12.06 Domestic Institution 6.93 Public & Others 13.82 Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute (4.3) (4.4) - Relative (1.3) (9.1) (3.3) Amnish Aggarwal [email protected] | 91-22-66322233 Nishita Doshi [email protected] | 91-22-66322381

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

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Page 1: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

July 23, 2019 1

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs1,690 | TP: Rs1,816

Upgrade to Accumulate; Growth Levers intact

We upgrade HUVR from HOLD to Accumulate given that HUVR should emerge

as one of the biggest gainers from Govt’s social push aimed at bottom end of

pyramid and increase in rural purchasing power on improved monsoons and

food inflation. Although 2Q outlook remains uncertain, We remain

structurally positive on HUVR led by 1) expansion in categories of future by

launching liquid detergent in Sunlight 2) increased thrust on naturals with

launch of Lux botanicals and Pears Naturale, two variants in Sunsilk and FAL

Ayurveda facewash and facial kits 3) sustained Premiumisation in Home Care

4) synergy gains from acquisition of Glaxo Consumer healthcare and 5)

sustained gains (70bps in 1QFy20) from cost efficiencies in supply chain,

data analytics and inventory management.

Benign competitive environment, improved product mix and cost efficiencies

gives us comfort to increase our EBIDTA margin estimates by 30bps over

FY19-21 (110bps expansion) leading to 1.3% and 0.6% increase in EPS

estimates for FY20 and FY21. We estimate FY21 pro-forma EPS including GSK

acquisition of Rs38.3 and value the stock at 46xJune21 arriving at target price

of Rs1816. We strongly advise Accumulating HUL in uncertain markets.

Concall Takeaways: 1) Rural demand growing at par with Urban demand 2) Price

cuts of 4-6% taken in select categories of Beauty and Personal Care; higher cuts in

Lux and Lifebuoy to pass on benefits of benign input costs as palm oil has declined

by 18.7% in 1Q20 3) Merger process with GSK and Integration of acquisition of

Adityaa Milk Ice-cream is on track. 4) Competitive activity has remained muted

across categories resulting in lower ad-spends 5) While Lever Ayush and Close up

have done well in oral care, Pepsodent is still work in progress 6) Tazaa brand is

doing well due to migration from loose to packaged tea 7) CSD channels has

remained erratic and would take time to stabilize.

Volumes up 5%, PAT up 11.7%: Net sales increased 6.6% to Rs101.1bn led by

5% volume growth and 7% Domestic consumer sales. Gross margin remained flat

at 54%. EBIDTA increased 17.6% to Rs26.5bn. EBIDTA margins expanded by

240bps on decline in staff costs, ad-spends and other expenses by 20bps, 70bps

and 150bps respectively. Excluding of IndAS 116 impact, EBITDA increased 13%

with 150bps margin expansion. Adj. PAT increased 11.7% to Rs17.5bn as other

income increased by 8.9%. Home Care sales up 10.1% and EBIT up 16.1% on

100bps margin expansion. Personal care sales up 4.1%, EBIT up 16.9% on 320bps

margin expansion. Foods and Refreshments sales up 9.2%, EBIT up 13.5% on

70bps margin expansion. In 1Q20,

HUL steps up launches in Naturals segment: HUL has stepped up launches in

naturals segment with FAL Ayurveda in facewash and facial kits, Lux Botanicals

and Pears Naturale in soaps, and 2 natural variants in Sunsilk. HUL relaunched Rin

brand nationally and Sunlight liquid detergent. In personal care it re-launched

Pond’s Men range and Elle 18 Lasting Glow Compact.

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

July 23, 2019

Q1FY20 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco

Change in Estimates

Current Previous

FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Rating ACCUMULATE HOLD

Target Price 1,816 1,753

Sales (Rs. m) 421,041 466,638 419,735 465,214

% Chng. 0.3 0.3

EBITDA (Rs. m) 98,810 110,544 96,483 108,702

% Chng. 2.4 1.7

EPS (Rs.) 31.5 35.1 31.1 34.9

% Chng. 1.2 0.5

Key Financials - Standalone

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Sales (Rs. bn) 345 382 421 467

EBITDA (Rs. bn) 73 86 99 111

Margin (%) 21.1 22.6 23.5 23.7

PAT (Rs. bn) 53 63 68 76

EPS (Rs.) 24.5 29.0 31.5 35.1

Gr. (%) 24.7 18.2 8.7 11.5

DPS (Rs.) 18.0 21.0 24.1 27.9

Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7

RoE (%) 78.1 85.0 86.1 91.4

RoCE (%) 100.2 110.1 115.9 123.4

EV/Sales (x) 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 49.3 41.5 36.2 32.4

PE (x) 68.9 58.3 53.6 48.1

P/BV (x) 51.6 47.7 44.8 43.0

Key Data HLL.BO | HUVR IN

52-W High / Low Rs.1,871 / Rs.1,477

Sensex / Nifty 37,983 / 11,331

Market Cap Rs.3,659bn/ $ 53,058m

Shares Outstanding 2,165m

3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.4090.58m

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoter’s 67.18

Foreign 12.06

Domestic Institution 6.93

Public & Others 13.82

Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -

Stock Performance (%)

1M 6M 12M

Absolute (4.3) (4.4) -

Relative (1.3) (9.1) (3.3)

Amnish Aggarwal

[email protected] | 91-22-66322233

Nishita Doshi

[email protected] | 91-22-66322381

Page 2: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 2

QFY20 Results (Rs m): Volumes up 5%, Adj. EBITDA margins up 150bps, Adj. PAT up 11.7%

Y/e March Q1FY20 Q1FY19 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY19 FY20E FY19 YoY gr. (%)

Net Sales 1,01,140 94,870 6.6 99,450 4,21,041 3,82,240 10.2

Gross Profit 54,660 51,230 6.7 52,020 2,24,131 2,02,640 10.8

Margin (%) 54.0 54.0 52.3 53.2 53.0

A&P Exp. 11,610 11,530 0.7 11,070 50,104 45,520 9.1

% of NS 11.5 12.2 11.1 11.9 11.9

EBITDA 26,470 22,510 17.6 23,210 98,810 86,370 11.8

Margins (%) 26.2 23.7 23.3 23.5 22.6

Depreciation 2,140 1,270 68.5 1,340 7,142 5,240 6.7

EBIT 24,330 21,240 14.5 21,870 91,668 81,130 12.1

Interest 240 70 242.9 70 960 280 2.0

Other Income 1,470 1,350 8.9 1,180 7,361 6,640 (4.0)

PBT 25,560 22,520 13.5 22,980 98,068 87,490 11.0

Tax 8,050 6,850 17.5 7,080 30,009 26,690 12.0

Tax Rate (%) 31.5 30.4 30.8 30.6 30.5

Adjusted PAT 17,510 15,670 11.7 15,900 68,059 60,800 10.5

Extraordinary 40 (390) 500 (500) (470)

Reported Profit 17,550 15,280 14.9 16,400 67,559 60,330 10.5

Source: Company, PL

Colour cosmetics and ice cream segment delivered double digit growth; personal care remained soft

Quarterly Segmental 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20

Net Sales (Rs m) 92,130 83,030 85,900 90,970 94,870 92,340 95,580 99,450 1,01,140

Home Care 30,470 27,390 27,410 31,020 31,460 30,800 31,480 35,020 34,650

Personal Care 43,680 39,100 40,900 40,960 44,070 43,160 45,390 43,930 45,890

Foods & Refreshment 16,540 15,260 15,720 17,350 17,850 17,040 17,280 19,160 19,500

Others 1,440 1,280 1,870 1,640 1,490 1,340 1,430 1,340 1,100

Sales Growth % 4.8 (2.0) 3.4 2.5 3.0 11.2 11.3 9.3 6.6

Home Care 5.9 (1.4) 1.9 3.3 3.2 12.4 14.8 12.9 10.1

Personal Care 3.5 (2.9) 2.8 0.5 0.9 10.4 11.0 7.3 4.1

Foods & Refreshment 11.2 5.5 9.0 8.8 7.9 11.7 9.9 10.4 9.2

Others (29.3) (41.3) (4.3) (18.4) 3.5 4.7 (23.5) (18.3) (26.2)

EBIT (Rs m) 18,170 15,560 15,300 19,280 20,960 18,970 18,070 21,870 24,380

Home Care 4,480 3,830 3,540 5,110 6,020 4,920 4,040 6,190 6,990

Personal Care 10,790 9,480 10,070 11,270 11,620 11,150 11,620 12,200 13,580

Foods & Refreshment 2,950 2,310 1,720 2,880 3,340 2,880 2,440 3,460 3,790

Others -50 -60 -30 20 -20 20 -30 20 20

EBIT Growth % 15.2 11.3 14.5 19.3 15.4 21.9 18.1 13.4 16.3

Home Care 25.9 36.8 51.1 31.4 34.4 28.5 14.1 21.1 16.1

Personal Care 5.6 2.8 9.4 14.5 7.7 17.6 15.4 8.3 16.9

Foods & Refreshment 41.1 24.0 (12.9) 16.6 13.2 24.7 41.9 20.1 13.5

Others (47.2) (165.6) (81.9) (150.0) (60.0) (133.3) 0.0 0.0 (200.0)

EBIT Margin %

Home Care 14.7 14.0 12.9 16.5 19.1 16.0 12.8 17.7 20.2

Personal Care 24.7 24.2 24.6 27.5 26.4 25.8 25.6 27.8 29.6

Foods & Refreshment 17.8 15.1 10.9 16.6 18.7 16.9 14.1 18.1 19.4

Others (3.5) (4.7) (1.6) 1.2 (1.3) 1.5 (2.1) 1.5 1.8

Source: Company, PL

Page 3: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 3

Acquisition to be 9-10% margin accretive for HUVR

Y/E March (Rs in mn) FY21E FY22E

Adj. PAT

HUVR 76,224 85,161

GSK 13,524 16,036

Total Adj. PAT 89,748 1,01,197

Equity shares

Existing HUVR shares 2160.0

Existing GSK shares 42.1

Additional share issued on swap (4.39sh:1sh) 184.6

Total shares after amalgamation 2344.6

New Merged EPS 38.28 43.16

Existing EPS 35.1 39.2

% Change 8.97% 9.98%

Source: Company, PL

HUVR’s focus on innovation and activations continues in core categories

Source: Company, PL

Page 4: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 4

Adjusted consumer sales up 7%, Home care lead growth

Source: Company, PL

Focusing on core and driving premiumization would be key Strategies for growth

Source: Company, PL

Page 5: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 5

Comparable FMCG sales up 7%

6.0

10.0

17.0 16.0 16.0

12.0 13.0

9.0

7.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Q1F

Y20

Source: Company, PL

Volumes up 5% on moderation in rural sales

0.0

4.0

11.0

11.0 12.0

10.0 10.0

7.0

5.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Q1F

Y20

Source: Company, PL

Ad-spends down 70bps YoY on demand slowdown

10.6

12.3

12.9

11.8 12.2 12.0

12.4

11.1 11.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

Q1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Q1F

Y20

Source: Company, PL

GM flat; Adj. EBITDA margins up 150bps

52.1 52.7 54.5 52.6 54.0 52.0 53.8 52.3 54.0

21.9 20.2 19.6 22.5 23.7 21.9 21.4 23.3

26.2

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0Q

1F

Y18

Q2F

Y18

Q3F

Y18

Q4F

Y18

Q1F

Y19

Q2F

Y19

Q3F

Y19

Q4F

Y19

Q1F

Y20

Gross Margins (%) EBITDA Margins (%) (RHS)

Source: Company, PL

PFAD prices down 29% YoY and 17.5% QoQ

6.7

%

28

.7%

69

.7%

30

.3%

3.1

%

2.7

%

-6.9

%

-15

.3%

-13

.7%

-14

.6%

-32

.2%

-21.4

%

-16

.0%

-29

.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun-1

8

Sep-1

8

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun-1

9

Sep-1

9

YoY QoQ

Source: Company, PL

Sales contribution increased for HC and F&R

Home Care34%

Beauty & Personal

Care46%

Foods & Refreshments

19%

Others1%

Source: Company, PL

Page 6: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 6

Financials

Income Statement (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Revenues 345,250 382,240 421,041 466,638

YoY gr. (%) 8.3 10.7 10.2 10.8

Cost of Goods Sold 162,320 179,600 196,910 217,617

Gross Profit 182,930 202,640 224,131 249,021

Margin (%) 53.0 53.0 53.2 53.4

Employee Cost 17,450 17,470 20,339 23,565

Other Expenses 940 350 1,243 1,377

EBITDA 72,760 86,370 98,810 110,544

YoY gr. (%) 20.3 18.7 14.4 11.9

Margin (%) 21.1 22.6 23.5 23.7

Depreciation and Amortization 4,780 5,240 7,142 7,592

EBIT 67,980 81,130 91,668 102,951

Margin (%) 19.7 21.2 21.8 22.1

Net Interest 200 280 960 979

Other Income 5,690 6,640 7,361 8,019

Profit Before Tax 73,470 87,490 98,068 109,991

Margin (%) 21.3 22.9 23.3 23.6

Total Tax 20,480 24,860 30,009 33,767

Effective tax rate (%) 27.9 28.4 30.6 30.7

Profit after tax 52,990 62,630 68,059 76,224

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associate - - - -

Adjusted PAT 52,990 62,630 68,059 76,224

YoY gr. (%) 24.7 18.2 8.7 12.0

Margin (%) 15.3 16.4 16.2 16.3

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (620) (2,270) (500) 500

Reported PAT 52,370 60,360 67,559 76,724

YoY gr. (%) 16.6 15.3 11.9 13.6

Margin (%) 15.2 15.8 16.0 16.4

Other Comprehensive Income (120) (30) (200) (200)

Total Comprehensive Income 52,250 60,330 67,359 76,524

Equity Shares O/s (m) 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,170

EPS (Rs) 24.5 29.0 31.5 35.1

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Non-Current Assets

Gross Block 73,614 80,174 85,174 90,174

Tangibles 66,720 72,800 77,800 82,800

Intangibles 6,894 7,374 7,374 7,374

Acc: Dep / Amortization 32,194 37,104 44,246 51,838

Tangibles 28,960 33,730 40,732 48,184

Intangibles 3,234 3,374 3,514 3,654

Net fixed assets 41,420 43,070 40,928 38,336

Tangibles 37,760 39,070 37,068 34,616

Intangibles 3,660 4,000 3,860 3,720

Capital Work In Progress 4,300 3,730 2,500 2,600

Goodwill - 360 360 360

Non-Current Investments 6,000 6,630 6,630 6,630

Net Deferred tax assets 2,550 3,390 3,593 3,809

Other Non-Current Assets 5,170 7,730 7,884 8,067

Current Assets

Investments 33,840 32,450 40,840 49,765

Inventories 23,590 24,220 26,667 29,178

Trade receivables 11,470 16,730 17,022 17,607

Cash & Bank Balance 28,440 31,360 34,510 38,588

Other Current Assets 6,260 3,520 6,316 7,000

Total Assets 171,490 178,650 193,048 208,366

Equity

Equity Share Capital 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,170

Other Equity 68,590 74,430 79,415 83,125

Total Networth 70,750 76,590 81,575 85,295

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term borrowings - - - -

Provisions 7,720 10,490 10,463 11,664

Other non current liabilities 1,670 1,870 2,010 2,161

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -

Trade payables 70,130 70,700 76,876 83,469

Other current liabilities 16,230 12,830 15,460 18,539

Total Equity & Liabilities 171,490 178,650 193,048 208,367

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Page 7: Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)€¦ · Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) July 23, 2019 Q1FY20 Result Update ☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco Change in Estimates Current Previous

Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 7

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Year

PBT 73,470 87,490 98,068 109,991

Add. Depreciation 4,370 4,910 7,142 7,592

Add. Interest - - - -

Less Financial Other Income - - - -

Add. Other (740) (2,300) (700) 300

Op. profit before WC changes 77,100 90,100 104,511 117,883

Net Changes-WC 7,600 (3,550) 3,000 6,433

Direct tax (20,480) (24,860) (30,009) (33,767)

Net cash from Op. activities 64,220 61,690 77,502 90,549

Capital expenditures (7,820) (6,350) (3,770) (5,100)

Interest / Dividend Income - - - -

Others (10,870) (2,370) (11,364) (12,618)

Net Cash from Invt. activities (18,690) (8,720) (15,134) (17,718)

Issue of share cap. / premium 110 100 263 269

Debt changes 660 1,310 183 358

Dividend paid (46,510) (54,590) (62,640) (73,080)

Interest paid - - - -

Others - 0 3 7

Net cash from Fin. activities (45,740) (53,180) (62,192) (72,446)

Net change in cash (210) (210) 175 385

Free Cash Flow 56,400 55,340 73,732 85,449

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20

Net Revenue 92,340 95,580 99,450 101,140

YoY gr. (%) 11.1 11.3 9.3 6.6

Raw Material Expenses 44,350 44,180 47,430 46,480

Gross Profit 47,990 51,400 52,020 54,660

Margin (%) 52.0 53.8 52.3 54.0

EBITDA 20,190 20,460 23,210 26,470

YoY gr. (%) 20.0 21.8 13.3 17.6

Margin (%) 21.9 21.4 23.3 26.2

Depreciation / Depletion 1,300 1,330 1,340 2,140

EBIT 18,890 19,130 21,870 24,330

Margin (%) 20.5 20.0 22.0 24.1

Net Interest 70 70 70 240

Other Income 3,050 1,060 1,180 1,470

Profit before Tax 21,870 20,120 22,980 25,560

Margin (%) 23.7 21.1 23.1 25.3

Total Tax 6,650 6,110 7,080 8,050

Effective tax rate (%) 30.4 30.4 30.8 31.5

Profit after Tax 15,220 14,010 15,900 17,510

Minority interest - - - -

Share Profit from Associates - - - -

Adjusted PAT 15,220 14,010 15,900 17,510

YoY gr. (%) 23.1 16.9 12.8 11.7

Margin (%) 16.5 14.7 16.0 17.3

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) 30 430 520 40

Reported PAT 15,250 14,440 16,420 17,550

YoY gr. (%) 23.4 8.9 21.5 14.8

Margin (%) 16.5 15.1 16.5 17.4

Other Comprehensive Income - - (20) -

Total Comprehensive Income 15,250 14,440 16,400 17,550

Avg. Shares O/s (m) 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164

EPS (Rs) 7.0 6.5 7.3 8.1

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per Share(Rs)

EPS 24.5 29.0 31.5 35.1

CEPS 26.7 31.4 34.8 38.6

BVPS 32.8 35.5 37.8 39.3

FCF 26.1 25.6 34.1 39.4

DPS 18.0 21.0 24.1 27.9

Return Ratio(%)

RoCE 100.2 110.1 115.9 123.4

ROIC 884.2 589.0 1,704.5 (1,450.6)

RoE 78.1 85.0 86.1 91.4

Balance Sheet

Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.9) (0.8) (0.9) (1.0)

Net Working Capital (Days) (37) (28) (29) (29)

Valuation(x)

PER 68.9 58.3 53.6 48.1

P/B 51.6 47.7 44.8 43.0

P/CEPS 63.2 53.8 48.5 43.8

EV/EBITDA 49.3 41.5 36.2 32.4

EV/Sales 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.7

Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7

Source: Company Data, PL Research

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Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 8

Price Chart Recommendation History

No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

1 4-Jul-19 Hold 1,753 1,794

2 7-Jun-19 Hold 1,764 1,831

3 3-May-19 Hold 1,764 1,694

4 5-Apr-19 Hold 1,854 1,659

5 17-Jan-19 Hold 1,874 1,752

6 7-Jan-19 Hold 1,880 1,785

7 3-Dec-18 Hold 1,880 1,826

8 12-Oct-18 Hold 1,703 1,570

9 5-Oct-18 Hold 1,703 1,574

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)

1 Asian Paints Accumulate 1,433 1,360

2 Avenue Supermarts Hold 1,338 1,359

3 Britannia Industries Accumulate 3,145 2,841

4 Colgate Palmolive Hold 1,208 1,204

5 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals BUY 284 234

6 Dabur India Hold 437 420

7 Emami Accumulate 382 301

8 Future Retail BUY 554 471

9 GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Hold 7,744 7,805

10 Hindustan Unilever Hold 1,753 1,794

11 ITC BUY 369 278

12 Jubilant FoodWorks BUY 1,541 1,259

13 Kansai Nerolac Paints Accumulate 464 442

14 Marico Hold 351 374

15 Nestle India Accumulate 10,656 11,884

16 Pidilite Industries Accumulate 1,184 1,227

17 Titan Company BUY 1,267 1,290

18 Voltas Accumulate 584 635

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%

Accumulate : 5% to 15%

Hold : +5% to -5%

Reduce : -5% to -15%

Sell : < -15%

Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock

Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

787

1059

1331

1603

1875

Jul -

16

Jan

- 1

7

Jul -

17

Jan

- 1

8

Jul -

18

Jan

- 1

9

Jul -

19

(Rs)

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Hindustan Unilever

July 23, 2019 9

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