Higher Alcohols to 2025 - Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. Alcohols to 2025 Prospectus.pdf · The section builds on the results of the Surfactant End Markets analysis in Chapter

Colin A. Houston & AssociatesChemical market intelligence experts since 1971

Higher Alcohols to 2025

Prospectus

2 Higher Alcohols to 2025

CAHA ResearchChemical Market Intelligence

Major Industrial End UsesAgriculture

Asphalt

Cement

Corrosion Inhibitors

Dispersants

Food

Leather

Metalworking

Oil Field & Refinery

Ore Flotation

Paint

Paper

Petroleum Additives

Plastics & Elastomers

Polishers

Slurries

Textiles

Wallboard

Raw Materials & Intermediate Chemicals

Oleochemicals

Normal Paraffins

Alpha-Olefins

Detergent Alkylates

Higher Alcohols

Alkylphenols

Ethylene Oxide

Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc.

262 Eastgate Drive 323Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USATelephone 1 803-226-0350Fax 1 803-693-0707Email [email protected] www.colin-houston.com

While CAHA makes every attempt to ensure the accuracy of the report data, estimates and forecasts provided in the report are for informational purposes only. Any and all decisions based on the data are at the client’s own risk (eg; investments and planning) . CAHA accepts no liability regarding the data, analysis and forecasts provided with this study.

3Higher Alcohols to 2025

Overview

In 2013, 400,000 tons of new capacity came on-stream with another

500,000 tons due in 2014. Additional capacity is expected in 2015. A

similar increase in new capacity came on-stream and washed over

markets between 2007 and 2009, and not every plant has met with the

success intended. The scale of development implies some level of future

rationalization of existing alcohol capacity which is not assured. From the

demand side, cost conscious consumers and retailers no longer support

the strategy of the premium, alcohol-based products in many regions. As

a result, the rapid development of all household markets can no longer be

guaranteed. With weak Western demand, growth consumption in Asia and

the Middle East is driving higher alcohol use.

Colin A. Houston & Associates has completed a 700 page study

that provides the insights necessary to navigate the competitive

waters of the coming decade. It includes supply/demand

data, forecasts, and in-depth, insightful analysis based on

CAHA’s 32 years of specific experience in studying higher alcohols. The

complex issues surrounding feedstock competition are evaluated. For

example, from 2010 to 2012, the oleo alcohol industry suffered a near

unprecedented price spike initiated by a shortfall in the lauric oil supply.

Feedstock competition from fuels and food have been explored to present

an outlook for lauric oil availability to the chemical processing sector. CAHA

explores the cost of production, the trade factor, and price developments.

Higher Alcohols to 2025 looks to the farther horizon to capture the effects

of emerging technology such as bio-based processes, which will begin to

impact the industry beginning in 2014-2015. The following pages provide a

description of the study which was completed in February 2013.

Contents

Description of the Study 4

Table of Contents 5

List of Tables 14

List of Figures 21

Sample Tables 22

Qualifications and Personnel 26



Higher Alcohols to 2025 explores the issues for this

key surfactant intermediate. It compares the status of

oleo alcohols in 2005 to today and considers the role of

coexistence with petro-based alcohols that would appear

to be threatened by the announcement of a second million

tons/year wave of new oleo capacity between 2011 and

2013. If the composition of the higher alcohol market

is to fundamentally change, there are a series of issues

for producers and customers to recognize. Much of the

market is captive. The number of large buyers is limited.

Upstream and downstream integration each play a strong

role. The outlook for the companies that convert merchant

alcohols to derivatives is always pressured by integrated

competitors. Oleo producers are affected by the effects of

co-product economics. The following discussions review

the objectives of the different chapters.

Description of the Study


Raw Materials

The changing outlook of feedstocks is driving a realignment

of the industry. The lauric oils, coconut and palm kernel, on

which oleo alcohols rely, are subject to shifting weather patterns

which are less reliable today and will, at times, deeply impact

alcohols availability. The potential for new oleo plants to fall

short of adequate lauric feedstocks cannot be overlooked as

demonstrated by the 2010-2011 price spike. Additionally,

pressure by customers to adopt RSPO-type feeds could augment

supply issues short term. The growing demand for food and

renewable fuels is problematic to alcohols, particularly from the

effect on feedstock costs. This chapter reviews and forecasts

supply and discusses the key issues and characteristics of these

oils which are used as higher alcohol feedstocks. In addition,

an overview of the composition and outlook for raw material

demand is included.

The crude oil price spikes of 2008 had a negative impact on

synthetic alcohol production. The surprising de-linkage between

crude oil and natural gas prices has recently revived ethylene

economics. The view that U.S. Gulf Coast economics are inferior

to those of other regions no longer prevails and this change

restores the outlook for synthetic-based derivatives around the

world. The competition from Middle Eastern ethylene no longer

represents the challenge that would cap ethylene capacity

increases in competing regions and force alcohols to compete

against other outlets for existing supplies. Issues such as supply

and market characteristics for ethylene and n-paraffins are

discussed in this section.

Natural Fats & Oils I-1

Technical Characteristics I-2

Supply/Demand Dynamics I-5

Coconut Oil I-7

Production I-9

Palm Kernel and Palm Oils I-16

Production I-18

World Forecast I-27

Developing Sources I-30

Babassu I-30

Cuphea I-30

Designer Oils I-32

Algal Oils I-32

Renewable Feedstock Issues I-37

Biofuel Development I-37

Government Mandates I-39

Impacts on Oleochemicals I-40

Food versus Fuel I-41

Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) I-42

The Round Table on Sustainable Palm

Oil (RSPO) I-43

Pricing of Fats and Oils I-45

Price Developments I-46

Price Outlook I-51

Company Profiles I-51

FELDA I-52

Sime Darby I-54

IOI Corporation I-56

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. I-59

Synthetic Raw Materials I-62

Technical Characteristics I-62

Ethylene I-63

Producers I-64

Pricing I-80

Natural Gas Feedstock Developments I-82

Normal Paraffins I-86

Producers I-87

Pricing I-95

Gas-to-Liquids (GTL)-Based Feedstocks I-98

CHAPTER ONE 99 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


Higher Alcohols Technologies

Alcohols plants produce a range of products and future producers

must choose the right mix to gain success. This chapter

evaluates the different process routes and their economics. A

technology outlook is included to review new developments such

as renewable chemicals’ bio-based approaches that are starting

to move beyond the patent stage. The advances in bio-based

processes are expected to impact the design and operations of

future plants. Another key aspect is the co-product situation.

As the biodiesel industry rapidly emerged, glycerine values

declined. The other co-products and cuts of alcohols are barely

adequate profit centers for producers. When oleo co-product

economics suffer, oleo’s ability to compete against synthetics for

the mid-cut market diminishes.

Introduction II-1

Technologies and Process Economics II-2

Oleo Alcohol Processes II-4

Methyl Ester Hydrogenation II-4

Modified Methyl Ester Processes

(Oleon and Davy) II-15

Fatty Acid Hydrogenation II-20

The Lurgi Wax Ester Process II-30

Synthetic Higher Alcohol Processes II-33

Manufacture of Olefin Feedstock II-34

Shell Oxo Process II-51

Sasol SafolR Process II-53

Ziegler Oxidation Process II-55

Paraffin Oxidation II-61

Summary of Process Economics II-61

Developments in Alcohol Technology: Bio-Based Routes II-64

Overview II-64

Platforms II-64

Amyris Platform II-65

Codexis Platform II-70

Elevance Platform II-73

LS9 Platform II-80

Solazyme Platform II-85

Summary II-90

By-Products and Co-Products II-92

Glycerine II-93

Short Chain (C6-11) II-93

Long Chain (C16-18) II-96

Aluminas II-98

Alcohol Prices By Region II-99

CHAPTER TWO 108 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


Higher Alcohols Supply

Capacity and production of detergent alcohols are presented

by type, region and producer. Forecast volumes are based on

demand levels developed in the alcohols demand chapter. A

review of key demand sensitivities is included. Trade in alcohols

and nonionics are reviewed by country and region. A discussion

analyzing the impact and outlook for short chain alcohols is

included. The outlook for short chain alcohols use in alcohol

ethoxylates is presented by region. This chapter also includes a

captive and merchant alcohols analysis by producer and region.

Production Capacity by Region III-1

North America III-7

South America III-8

Central & West Europe III-9

Asia III-10

Africa & Middle East III-14

Chronological Capacity Development III-15

Production By Type III-20

North America III-24

South America III-26


Asia III-30

Africa & Middle East III-37

Processes Employed and Integration Factors III-38

Detergent Alcohol Trade Trends III-43




Asia III-49

East Europe III-50

Africa/Middle East III-52

Nonionic Trade Trends III-54

Short Chain Supply Outlook III-56

Introduction III-56

Short Chain Oleo Alcohols III-57

Short Chain Synthetic Alcohols III-59

Outlook III-60

Captive and Merchant Market Analysis III-62




Asia III-70

Africa-Middle East III-74

CHAPTER THREE 74 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


Higher Alcohols Demand

The section builds on the results of the Surfactant End Markets

analysis in Chapter VI, which provides a baseline demand for

alcohol applications. In this Higher Alcohols Demand chapter, the

derivative volumes are translated back to alcohol demand based

on the end market analysis. Regional demand by application

to 2025 is presented. Historical demand developments are

reviewed in light of the competing feedstocks. This chapter also

explores chain length issues delineating end market preferences

and summarizing long chain end use levels.

Higher Alcohols End Uses

The derivatives and direct applications of detergent alcohols are

detailed and quantified. This chapter provides analysis of:

• Technology: process routes, product variations, performance

issues

• Producers, Capacities and Locations: a complete list of all

ethoxylating and sulfating surfactant producers, worldwide

• End Use Markets and Customers: regionally, customers and

consumption by end use are analyzed for different areas like

Household, Personal Care, I&I and Industrial

• Market Trends & Issues: developing trends affecting the outlook

for alcohol derivatives are discussed and evaluated, including

competing materials.

Surfactant Technology V-1

Introduction V-1

Sulfation V-4

Ethoxylation V-33

Alcohol Ethoxylate V-33

Technology V-49

Applications V-49

World Markets V-49

North America V-54

South America V-60

Central & West Europe V-61

Asia V-66

East Europe V-71

Africa & Middle East V-72

Introduction IV-1

Higher Alcohols - A Look Back, 1990-2012 IV-1

Product Chain Length Issues IV-7

End Market Product Preferences IV-8

World Demand Summary IV-13

Regional Demand IV-17

North America IV-19

South America IV-21

Central & West Europe IV-22

Asia IV-24

East Europe IV-26

Africa & Middle East IV-28

Higher Alcohols Demand Sensitivities IV-30

CHAPTER FOUR 32 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER FIVE 153 PAGES


Alcohol Ethoxysulfate V-74

Technology V-74

Applications V-75

World Markets V-76

North America V-78

South America V-82


Asia V-90

East Europe V-94


Alcohol Sulfate V-100

Technology V-100

Applications V-100

World Markets V-102

South America V-107


Asia V-112

East Europe V-115


Alkyldimethylamines V-119

Technology V-119

From Alcohol via Direct Amination V-119

From Alpha-Olefin via Alkyl Bromide V-120

From Fatty Acid via Fatty Acid Nitrile V-120

From Alcohol via Alkyl Chloride V-121

Applications V-121

World Markets V-123

North America V-124

South America V-127


Asia V-130

Alcohol Demand V-134

Market Trends and Issues V-134

CHAPTER FIVE 153 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS

Alkyl Polygycloside V-135

Technology V-135

Production and Producers V-136

Performance V-136

Consumption V-137

Methacrylate Esters V-139

Technology V-139


Consumption V-141

Other Derivative End uses V-143

Sulfosuccinates V-143

Technology V-143


Consumption and Forecast V-145

Direct End Uses V-146


Surfactant End Markets

The global surfactant market is reviewed and forecast by region in

terms of Household, Personal Care and Industrial demand. This

is a brief, yet full, review of these different markets illustrating

how alcohols are expected to perform in comparison to the major

competing primary surfactants. The discussion of markets by

region traces how markets have seen the impact of the financial

crisis and the recovery. The recent oleo price spike has proved

a short term demand inelasticity. The growing availability

of alcohols is expected to increase the pressure to substitute

competing surfactants. The problems of product suitability

and the familiarity of customers to the various approaches are

considered. Additional issues and sensitivities of the competing

surfactants are included. Regulatory events in surfactants are

changing demand and further developments in this area are

expected. The APE replacement market has expanded rapidly

beyond Europe in the last five years and represents a growing

outlet for alcohols, both short and mid-chain. The report

examines this subject to better define the split by alcohol type,

and forecasts demand to 2025. Other environmentally related

topics are discussed where relevant in this chapter.

World Summary VI-1

North America End Markets VI-5

Introduction VI-5

Household Products VI-6

Personal Care Products VI-9

Industrial Products VI-10

Industrial & Institutional (I&I) Cleaners VI-11

Ag Chem VI-11

Paint VI-11

Paper VI-12

Plastics and Elastomers VI-12

Textiles VI-12

Other Industrial Applications VI-12

South America End Markets VI-13

Introduction VI-13



Industrial VI-17

Central & West Europe End Markets VI-18

Introduction VI-18


Heavy Duty Detergents VI-20

Light Duty Liquids VI-21

Other Household Products VI-21


Shampoo VI-22

Bath Additives VI-23

Other Personal Care Products VI-23


Industrial & Institutional (I&I) Cleaners VI-24

Plastics and Elastomers VI-25

Textiles VI-25

Other Industrial End Uses VI-26

CHAPTER SIX 44 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


Asia End Markets VI-27

Introduction VI-27


Heavy Duty Detergents VI-29

Light Duty Detergents VI-31


Shampoo VI-32

Toothpaste VI-32

Bath and Shower Products VI-33

Other Personal Care Products VI-33


Industrial and Institutional (I&I) Cleaners VI-34

Industrial Processing Aids VI-34

Textile Processing VI-35

Pulp and Paper VI-35

Other Industrial Applications VI-35

East Europe Markets VI-36

Introduction VI-36


Detergent Markets VI-38



Africa & Middle East End Markets VI-41

Introduction VI-41


Detergent Markets VI-43



CHAPTER SIX 44 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


Producer Profiles

Over 22 higher alcohol producers are profiled. Corporate

highlights are provided, along with a brief development history.

Included are raw materials access, production facility locations,

processes employed, select products and capacities, and future

planned facilities. Each company’s higher alcohols business

position is detailed along with its strategy and outlook.

CAHA has a unique perspective on the higher alcohols business

with over 40 years of experience in providing multiclient studies

and proprietary consulting services to a client base spanning five

continents. CAHA’s projects, consulting, newsletters and market

reports result in steady communication with knowledgeable

contacts at scores of companies, enlarging our understanding

and enhancing our extensive industry knowledge base.

This study is designed to provide insight and understanding that

enables clients to be more knowledgeable and operate more

successfully as market participants.

Bakrie Sumatera VII-2

Corporate Overview VII-2

Higher Alcohol Business Position VII-3

Integration VII-3

Intermediate and Surfactant Plants VII-5

Strategy & Outlook VII-5

BASF VII-7



Integration VII-9



Codexis VII-15



Integration VII-16

Market Analysis VII-20


Ecogreen VII-21



Integration VII-22



Emery Oleochemical VII-27



Integration VII-28



ExxonMobil VII-32



Integration VII-33


Godrej VII-37



Integration VII-38



CHAPTER SEVEN 145 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


KAO VII-42



Integration VII-43



Kuala Lumpur Kepong - Oleomas VII-48



Integration VII-50


Leuna-Tenside VII-55




Strategic Outlook VII-56

Liaoning Huaxing VII-60



Integration VII-61



LS9 VII-65


Surfactant Business Position VII-66

Integration VII-67

Market Analysis VII-69


Musim Mas VII-72



Integration VII-73



Nippon Shokubai VII-76



Integration VII-76


Oxiteno VII-82



Integration VII-84


Procter & Gamble VII-90



Integration VII-92


Sasol VII-99


New Ventures VII-100


Integration VII-101


Shell VII-109



Integration VII-113


Teck Guan VII-119



Integration VII-119


Thai Fatty Alcohols VII-122


New Ventures VII-124


Integration VII-124


VVF VII-128



Integration VII-129


Wilmar VII-134



Integration VII-135



Other Operators & Operations VII-141

CHAPTER SEVEN 145 PAGES TABLE OF CONTENTS


LIST OF TABLESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 19 TABLES

No. Table Description Page

1 World - Higher Alcohol (C12+) Demand Forecast by Region, 2005-2025 v

2 World - Higher Alcohol (C12+) Demand Forecast by End Market, 2005-2025 vii

3 World - Higher Alcohol (C12+) Capacities by Type, 1998-2025 x

4 World - Higher Alcohol (C12+) Capacities by Region, 2005-2025 xi

5 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2025 xi

6 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Region. 2005-2025 xii

7 Palm Kernel and Coconut Oils Production, 2005-2025 xii

8 Summary of Alcohol Production Costs by Various Processes, 2012 xvi

9 World - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 xvii

10 World - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 xix

11 World - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 xx

12 World - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 xxi

13 World - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 xxi

14 World - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 xxiii

15 World - C12+ Alcohol-based Alkyldimethylamine Production, 2005-2025 xxiv

16 World - Higher Alcohol Consumption in Direct End Uses by Region, 2005-2025 xxv

17 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 xxv

18 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 xxvi

19 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Application, 2005-2025 xxviii

CHAPTER ONE: RAW MATERIALS 24 TABLES


I-1 List of Fatty Acids and Corresponding Oils in Which They Occur I-4

I-2 Fatty Acid Composition of Lauric Oils Chain Length I-5

I-3 Coconut Oil Production and Exports, 2005-2025 I-14

I-4 Palm Kernel Production and Exports, 2005-2025 I-27

I-5 World - Coconut and Palm Kernel Oil Production, Exports and Consumption, 2005-2025 I-29

I-6 Feedstock Use for Biodiesel Production - 2007-2011 I-41

I-7 Palm Industry Operations of the Top Five Plantation Companies I-52

I-8 World - Ethylene Capacity, 2012 I-64

I-9 North America - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-66

I-10 South America - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-68

I-11 Central & West Europe - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-69

I-12 Asia - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-72

I-13 East Europe - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-76

I-14 Middle East - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-78

I-15 Africa - Ethylene Producers and Capacities, 2012 I-80

I-16 U.S. - Average Contract Delivered List Prices History for Ethylene I-82

I-17 n-Paraffin Capacity by Region, 2011 I-88

I-18 North America- n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-88

I-19 South America- n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-89

I-20 Central & West Europe - n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-90

I-21 Asia - n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-93

I-22 East Europe - n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-93

I-23 Africa & Middle East - n-Paraffin Capacities, 2011 I-95

I-24 Normal Paraffin - Asia Prices I-97


CHAPTER TWO: HIGHER ALCOHOLS TECHNOLOGY 26 TABLES


II-1 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols from Coconut Oil by Methyl Ester Route II-9

II-2 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Methyl Ester Route II-10

II-3 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Alcohols from Coconut Oil by Methyl Ester Route II-12

II-4 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Methyl Ester Route II-13

II-5 Estimated Production Costs - C12-18 Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Methyl Ester Route II-14

II-6 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols by Davy Methyl Ester Route from PKO II-17

II-7 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Davy Methyl Ester Route II-18

II-8 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Davy Methyl Ester Route (Biodiesel Credits)

II-19

II-9 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols from Coconut Oil by Fatty Acid Route II-26

II-10 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Fatty Acid Route II-27

II-11 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Coconut Oil by Fatty Acid Route II-28

II-12 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Fatty Acid Route II-29

II-13 Estimated Production Costs - C12-14 Detergent Alcohols from Palm Kernel Oil by Lurgi Wax Ester Route II-32

II-14 Estimated Production Costs - Shop Olefins Shell Shop Oxo Process II-39

II-15 World - Internal Olefin Producers via “Pacol/Olex” Processes, 2012 II-45

II-16 Comparison of Oxo Technology Conditions for Higher Alcohols II-48

II-17 Estimated Production Costs - Detergent Alcohols Shell Oxo Process II-52

II-18 Estimated Production Costs - Detergent Alcohols Sasol FT Process II-54

II-19 Estimated Production Costs - C6-18 Alcohols - Whole Cut Sasol Ziegler Process II-59

II-20 Sasol Ziegler Process - Detergent Range Cuts Sasol Ziegler Process - C12-14 Detergent Range Cuts II-60

II-21 Summary of Alcohol Production Costs by Various Processes, 2012 II-63

II-22 Major Biotech Companies Synopsis II-66

II-23 Compound Types Produced by LS9 Fermentation Technology II-83

II-24 U.S. - Detergent-Range Alcohols with Alcohol Ethoxylates Average Price Histories, 1984-2012 II-101

II-25 Central & Europe - Detergent-Range Alcohols with Alcohol Ethoxylates Average Price Histories, 2006-2012 II-105

II-26 Asia - Detergent-Range Alcohols with Alcohol Ethoxylates Average Price Histories, 2006-2012 II-106

CHAPTER THREE: SUPPLY 49 TABLES


III-1 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Capacities by Derivation, 2012 III-1

III-2 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Capacities by Region, 2000-2025 III-4

III-3 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Capacities by Type, 1988-2025 III-6

III-4 North America - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-8

III-5 South America - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-8

III-6 Central & West Europe - Detergent-Range Oleochemical-Based Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-9

III-7 Central & West Europe - Detergent-Range Synthetic Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-10

III-8 Asia - Detergent-Range Oleo-based Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-12

III-9 Asia - Detergent-Range Synthetic Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-14

III-10 Africa & Middle East - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Producers and Capacities, 2012 III-15

III-11 Developments for Higher Alcohol Plant Capacity by Region and Producer, 2006-2014 III-17

III-12 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2025 III-20

III-13 World - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Region, 2000-2025 III-22

III-14 U.S. - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Producer, 2000-2012 III-25

III-15 North America - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2015 III-26

III-16 South America - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2015 III-27

III-17 Central & West Europe - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2015 III-28



III-18 Central & West Europe - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Producer, 2000-2012 III-29

III-19 Asia - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2015 III-31

III-20 Asia - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Producer, 2000-2012 III-33

III-21 Africa & Middle East - Detergent-Range Alcohol (C12+) Production by Type, 2000-2015 III-37

III-22 Higher Alcohol Producer Plant Processes by Number and Type - 2012 III-39

III-23 Higher Alcohol Plant Product Orientations by Company III-41

III-24 World Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-43

III-25 North America Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-44

III-26 North American Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-45

III-27 North America Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-45

III-28 South America Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-46

III-29 South American Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-46

III-30 South America Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-47

III-31 Central & West Europe Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-47

III-32 Central & West Europe Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-48

III-33 Central & West Europe Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-48

III-34 Asia Europe Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-49

III-35 Asia Europe Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-49

III-36 Asia Europe Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-50

III-37 East Europe Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-50

III-38 East Europe Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-51

III-39 East Europe Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-51

III-40 Africa & Middle East Detergent Alcohol Trade, 2005-2011 III-52

III-41 Africa & Middle East Imports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-53

III-42 Africa & Middle East Exports by Regions, 2005-2011 III-53

III-43 Regional Nonionic Surfactant Trade Totals by Region III-54

III-44 Short Chain Alcohol Forecast in AE use to 2025 III-61

III-45 North America - Estimated Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Analysis, 2011 III-65

III-46 South America - Estimated Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Analysis, 2011 III-67

III-47 Central & West Europe - Estimated Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Analysis, 2011 III-68

III-48 Asia - Estimated Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Analysis, 2011 III-71

III-49 Africa & Middle East- Estimated Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Analysis, 2011 III-74

CHAPTER FOUR: DEMAND 11 TABLES


IV-1 Global Higher Alcohol Demand Developments by Region, 1990-2010 IV-2

IV-2 World - Higher Alcohol Capacity (C12+) by Region, 1990-2012 IV-5

IV-3 World C16-18 Alcohols Demand - 2012 IV-11

IV-4 World- Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast - 2005-2025 IV-15

IV-5 Regional Summary - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-18

IV-6 North America - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-20

IV-7 South America - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-21

IV-8 Central & West Europe - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-23

IV-9 Asia - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-25

IV-10 East Europe - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-27

IV-11 Africa & Middle East - Higher Alcohol Demand Forecast, 2005-2025 IV-29


CHAPTER FIVE: END USES 82 TABLES


V-1 World - Sulfation/Sulfonation Capacity by Region, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-5

V-2 North America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-6

V-3 Central & South America - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-10

V-4 Central & West Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-14

V-5 Asia - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-18

V-6 East Europe - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-27

V-7 Africa & Middle East - Sulfators/Sulfonators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-28

V-8 World - Ethoxylation Capacity by Region, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-34

V-9 North America - Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-35

V-10 South America - Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-38

V-11 Central & West Europe - Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-39

V-12 Asia - Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-42

V-13 East Europe - Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-47

V-14 Africa & Middle East- Ethoxylators Plants, Locations and Capacities, Fourth Quarter 2012 V-48

V-15 World - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-53

V-16 World - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-54

V-17 North America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-55

V-18 North America - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2000-2025 V-57

V-19 North America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Customers, 2012 V-58

V-20 South America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-60

V-21 South America - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-61

V-22 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-62

V-23 Central & West Europe - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-63

V-24 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Customers, 2012 V-64

V-25 Asia - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-67

V-26 Asia - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-69

V-27 Asia - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Customers, 2012 V-70

V-28 East Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-71

V-29 East Europe - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-72

V-30 Africa & Middle East - Selected Alcohol Ethoxylate Producers, 2012 V-72

V-31 Africa & Middle East - Alcohol Ethoxylate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-73

V-32 World - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-76

V-33 World - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-77

V-34 North America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-78

V-35 North America - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-80

V-36 North America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Customers, 2012 V-81

V-37 South America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-83

V-38 South America - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-84

V-39 South America - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Customers, 2012 V-85

V-40 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-86

V-41 Central & West - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-87

V-42 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Customers, 2012 V-88

V-43 Asia - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-91

V-44 Asia - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-92

V-45 Asia - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Customers, 2012 V-93

V-46 East Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-95



V-47 East Europe - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-96

V-48 East Europe - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Customers, 2012 V-96

V-49 Africa & Middle East - Selected Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Producers, 2012 V-97

V-50 Africa & Middle East - Alcohol Ethoxysulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-98

V-51 World - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-102

V-52 World - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-103

V-53 North America - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Producers, 2012 V-104

V-54 North America - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-105

V-55 North America - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Customers, 2012 V-106

V-56 South America - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Producers, 2012 V-107

V-57 South America - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Customers, 2012 V-108

V-58 South America - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-108

V-59 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Producers, 2012 V-109

V-60 Central & West Europe - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Customers, 2012 V-111

V-61 Central & West Europe - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-111

V-62 Asia - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Producers, 2012 V-112

V-63 Asia - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-114

V-64 Asia - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Customers, 2012 V-114

V-65 East Europe - Selected Alcohol Sulfate Producers, 2012 V-116

V-66 East Europe- Selected Alcohol Sulfate Customers, 2012 V-116

V-67 East Europe - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-117

V-68 Africa & Middle East - Alcohol Sulfate Consumption by End Use, 2005-2025 V-118

V-69 World - C12+ Alcohol-Based Alkyldimethylamine Production, 2005-2025 V-123

V-70 North America - Alkyldimethylamine Producers and Capacities, 2012 V-124

V-71 South America - Alkyldimethylamine Producers and Capacities, 2012 V-127

V-72 Central & West Europe - Alkyldimethylamine Producers and Capacities, 2012 V-128

V-73 Asia - Alkyldimethylamine Producers and Capacities, 2012 V-130

V-74 World - Alkylpolyglycoside Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-138

V-75 World Methacrylate Ester Producers per Region, 2012 V-140

V-76 World Methacrylate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-142

V-77 World - Sulfosuccinate Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 V-145

V-78 World - Higher Alcohols Consumption in Direct End Uses by Region, 2005-2025 V-147

V-79 World - Direct Use of Higher Alcohol in Personal Care Products by Region, 2005-2025 V-149

V-80 World - Higher Alcohol Consumption in Other Direct End Uses by Region, 2005-2025 V-150

V-81 World - Other Derivatives Consumption of Higher Alcohols by Region, 2005-2025 V-152

V-82 World - Unspecified Other Consumption of Higher Alcohols by Region, 2005-2025 V-153

CHAPTER SIX: SURFACTANT MARKETS 33 TABLES


VI-1 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 VI-1

VI-2 World - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-3

VI-3 World - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Region, 2005-2025 VI-4

VI-4 North America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 VI-5

VI-5 North America - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-6

VI-6 North America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-8

VI-7 North America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses 2005-2025 VI-9

VI-8 North America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-11

VI-9 South America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 VI-13



VI-10 South America - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-14

VI-11 South America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-15

VI-12 South America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses 2005-2025 VI-16

VI-13 South America - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-17

VI-14 Central & West Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption, 2005-2025 VI-18

VI-15 Central & West Europe - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-19

VI-16 Central & West Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-20

VI-17 Central & West Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-22

VI-18 Central & West Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-24

VI-19 Asia - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption, 2005-2025 VI-27

VI-20 Asia - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-28

VI-21 Asia - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-29

VI-22 Asia - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-32

VI-23 Asia - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-34

VI-24 East Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 VI-36

VI-25 East Europe - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-37

VI-26 East Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-38

VI-27 East Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-39

VI-28 East Europe - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses 2005-2025 VI-40

VI-29 Africa & Middle East - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption by Type, 2005-2025 VI-41

VI-30 Africa & Middle East - Total Consumption of Primary Surfactants by End Use, 2012 VI-42

VI-31 Africa & Middle East - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Household End Uses 2005-2025 VI-43

VI-32 Africa & Middle East - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in Personal Care End Uses 2005-2025 VI-44

VI-33 Africa & Middle East - Total Primary Surfactant Consumption in I&I and Industrial End Uses, 2005-2025 VI-44

CHAPTER SEVEN: PROFILES 55 TABLES


VII-1 Bakrie Sumatera - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-4

VII-2 Bakrie Sumatera - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-5

VII-3 BASF - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-10

VII-4 BASF - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-11

VII-5 Codexis -Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-18

VII-6 Codexis - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-19

VII-7 Ecogreen - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-23

VII-8 Ecogreen - Announced New Plants VII-25

VII-9 Ecogreen - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-25

VII-10 Emery Oleochemicals - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-29

VII-11 Emery Oleochemicals - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-30

VII-12 Emery Oleochemicals - Announced New Plants VII-31

VII-13 Exxonmobil Chemical - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-34

VII-14 Exxonmobil Chemicals - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-35

VII-15 Godrej - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-39

VII-16 Godrej - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-41

VII-17 Godrej - Announced New Plants VII-41

VII-18 Kao - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-44

VII-19 Kao - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-45

VII-20 Kao - Announced New Plants VII-47

VII-21 KLK - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-50



VII-22 KLK Oleomas - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-51

VII-23 KLK - Announced New Plants VII-53

VII-24 Leuna-Tenside - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-58

VII-25 Leuna-Tenside - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-59

VII-26 Liaoning Huaxing - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-62

VII-27 Liaoning Huaxing - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-63

VII-28 LS9, Inc - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-68

VII-29 LS9, Inc - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-69

VII-30 Musim Mas - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-74

VII-31 Musim Mas - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-75

VII-32 Nippon Shokubai - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-78

VII-33 Nippon Shokubai - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-79

VII-34 Oxiteno - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-85

VII-35 Oxiteno - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-86

VII-36 Oxiteno - Announced New Plants VII-88

VII-37 Procter & Gamble Chemicals - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-94

VII-38 Procter & Gamble Chemicals - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-95

VII-39 Sasol (O&S) - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-102

VII-40 Sasol (O&S) - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-103

VII-41 Sasol (O&S) - Announced New Plants VII-105

VII-42 Shell Chemicals - Detergent Alcohol Capacity, 1973-2012 VII-111

VII-43 Shell Chemicals - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-114

VII-44 Shell Chemicals - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-116

VII-45 Shell Chemicals - Announced New Plants VII-117

VII-46 Teck Guan - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-120

VII-47 Teck Guan - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-121

VII-48 Thai Fatty Alcohols - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-125

VII-49 Thai Fatty Alcohols - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-126

VII-50 VVF, Ltd. - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-130

VII-51 VVF, Ltd. - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-131

VII-52 VVF, Ltd. - Announced New Plants VII-132

VII-53 Wilmar - Integration from Base Material to Finished Product by Region - 2012 VII-136

VII-54 Wilmar - Intermediate and Surfactant Plant Locations and Capacities - 2012 VII-137

VII-55 Wilmar - Announced New Plants VII-138


LIST OF FIGURES

No. Figure Description Page

I-1 World Consumption of Coconut Oil, 2011 I-9

I-2 Coconut Oil & Palm Kernel Oil Production 2000-2012 I-11

I-3 Coconut Oil Exports by Country - 2011 I-13

I-4 World-Consumption of Palm Kernel Oil - 2011 I-18

I-5 Palm Kernel Oil Exports by Country - 2011 I-19

I-6 Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Production 2013-2025 I-23

I-7 Malaysia Palm Kernel Oil Production 2013-2025 I-25

I-8 Isolation of Triglycerides from Algal Sources Process I-36

I-9 Lauric Oil Prices, 1970-2012 I-46

I-10 Lauric Oil Monthly Price History, 1995-2012 I-48

I-11 Monthly Lauric and Palm Oil Prices, 2010-2013 I-50

I-12 Raw Material Flow to Synthetic Higher Alcohols I-62

I-13 Shale Gas Deposits I-84

II-1 Methyl Ester Route to Oleo Alcohol II-6

II-2 Fatty Acid Route to Oleo Alcohols II-22

II-3 Lurgi Wax Ester Process II-31

II-4 Summary of Intermediate and Synthetic Alcohol Processes II-34

II-5 Shell Higher Olefin Process for Producing Olefins from Ethylene II-36

II-6 Oligomer Product Distribution vs. K Factor II-37

II-7 MolexR Unit Configuration II-41

II-8 Pacol-OlexR Unit Configuration II-43

II-9 SafolR 23 Production Route from Coal II-50

II-10 Simplified Flow Diagram of the Original Sasol (Alfol) Ziegler Process II-57

II-11 Distribution of Alcohol by Chain Length from the Original Sasol Ziegler Process II-58

II-12 β-Farnesene II-67

II-13 Amyris Technology Platform II-69

II-14 Codexis Technology Platform II-71

II-15 Elevance Technology Platform II-74

II-16 Possible Vegetable Oil Feeds for Elevance Technology II-75

II-17 Olefin Metathesis Reaction II-76

II-18 Possible Products from Olefin Metathesis of 9-Decenoic Acid (9-DA) II-77

II-19 Proposed Process Flow for Elevance Process II-78

II-20 LS9 Technology Platform II-81

II-21 LS9 Fermentation Process II-82

II-22 LS9 Feedstock and Product Optionality II-83

II-23 Solazyme Technology Tree II-87

II-24 UOP Econfining of Triglycerides to Hydrocarbons II-88

III-1 World - C12+ Alcohol Production by Type, 1992-2015 III-23

III-2 World - Major C12+ Alcohol Captive vs. Merchant Markets, 2011 III-63

III-3 Major World Captive/Merchant C12+ Alcohol Markets, 2011 III-64

IV-1 Palm Kernel Oil and USGC Ethylene Monthly Price History, 1994-2013 IV-3

IV-2 Regional Higher Alcohol Demand, 2005-2025 IV-18

VII-1 PTT Global Chemical Company Organization, 2012 VII-123


Table 1 | WORLD HIGHER ALCOHOL (C12+) DEMAND FORECAST BY REGION, 2005-2025 (thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

North America

South America

Central & West Europe

Asia

East Europe

Africa & Middle East

TOTAL

Table III-12 | WORLD DETERGENT-RANGE ALCOHOL (C12+) PRODUCTION BY TYPE2000-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

Synthetic alcohol

Oleo alcohol

Bio-based alcohols

TOTAL

Table III-18 | CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE DETERGENT-RANGE ALCOHOL (C12+) PRODUCTION BY PRODUCER, 2000-2012(thousand tons)

Producer Location 2000 2005 2008 2010 2012

OLEO ALCOHOLS

SYNTHETIC ALCOHOLS

GRAND TOTAL CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE

SAMPLE TABLES


Table III-26 | NORTH AMERICAN IMPORTS BY REGION, 2005-2011(thousand tons)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

South America

Asia

China

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Middle East & Africa

TOTAL Ex-Regional

Table III-32 | CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE IMPORTS BY REGION, 2005-2011(thousand tons)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

North America

South America

Asia

China

India

Indonesia

Philippines

Malaysia

Middle East & Africa

TOTAL Ex-Regional


Table IV-8 | CENTRAL & WEST EUROPE HIGHER ALCOHOL DEMAND FORECAST, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %

2012-2025

Alcohol ethoxylates

Alcohol ether sulfates

Alcohol sulfates

Subtotal

Nitrogen Derivatives

Quaternary ammonium compounds

Amine oxide

Other ADA derivatives

Subtotal Nitrogen Derivatives

Other Intermediates

Alkylpolyglycosides

Methacrylate esters

Sulfosuccinates

Others

Subtotal Others

Direct End Uses

Personal care

Other

Unspecified other

TOTAL

Table V-16 | WORLD ALCOHOL ETHOXYLATE CONSUMPTION BY END USE, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

Household

Personal Care

Industrial Cleaning and Process

Aids

TOTAL a

a Does not include AE consumed in AES production


Table V-63 | ASIA - ALCOHOL SULFATE CONSUMPTION BY END USE, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

Household

Personal Care

Industrial Cleaning and Process Aids

TOTAL

Table VI-1 | WORLD TOTAL PRIMARY SURFACTANT CONSUMPTION BY TYPE, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

Alkylbenzene sulfonates

Alcohol sulfates

Alcohol ethoxysulfates

Alcohol ethoxylates

Alkylphenol ethoxylates

TOTAL

Table VI-3 | WORLD - TOTAL PRIMARY SURFACTANT CONSUMPTION BY REGION, 2005-2025(thousand tons)

2005 2008 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025CAGR %‘12-‘25

North America

South America

Central & West Europe

Asia

East Europe

Africa & Middle East

TOTAL


QUALIFICATIONS AND PERSONNEL

Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. was founded in 1971

to provide consulting services to the chemical industry

worldwide. The primary area of expertise is surfactants:

raw materials, intermediates, major surfactants, and the

surfactant consuming industries. Other areas of activity

include a variety of industry studies on such topics as oilfield

chemicals, detergent builders, ingredients for personal care

products, and bleaching agents; engineering studies such

as a worldwide study of glycerine evaporation plants with

recommendations for improved efficiency; process economics

of world alpha-olefin plants; benchmarking of process

economics for U.S. fatty acid producers; a world study of the

state of the art in spray-drying detergents; contracts with the

U.S. Government to develop industry effluent guidelines; and

business strategy and acquisition studies.

The reputation thus earned by CAHA for comprehensive,

high quality technoeconomic and market analyses has led to

a variety of engineering, marketing, and strategic planning

studies for individual clients in North America, Latin America,

West Europe, Asia/Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.

CAHA completed its first global higher alcohols multiclient

study in 1980, and covered higher alcohols and related issues

in several major multiclient studies during the 1980s including

OLEOCHEMICAL DEVELOPMENTS (1984) and SURFACTANT

INTERMEDIATES AND SOAP - WORLD BALANCES (1984).

Four additional comprehensive global higher alcohols studies

were completed in 1990, 1995, 2000 and in 2006 with CAHA

publishing HIGHER ALCOHOLS - FORECAST TO 2020. These

multiclient studies provide an unparalleled database while

CAHA’s newsletters and ongoing consulting work in surfactant

intermediates and surfactants provide a worldwide service of

up-to-date information and analysis.

The project team approach utilized by CAHA includes a core

of senior and technical professionals augmented by expert

consultant associates. The following synopses present the

staff and consultants who have contributed to the study,

HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025.

Joel H. Houston, President, was the project leader

on HIGHER ALCOHOLS TO 2025 and numerous other

multiclient studies including, NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD

MARKETS, 2007-2017, DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD

MARKETS, 2006-2016, OPPORTUNITIES IN PERFORMANCE

SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE, SURFACTANTS FOR

EMERGING MARKETS IN ASIA/PACIFIC, 1996-2010, and

SURFACTANTS FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS - NORTH

AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2008. He has guided CAHA’s

research in oleochemicals since 1980, and in detergents

since 1987. Mr. Houston has extensive experience in projects

for consumer products, has presented papers at CESIO,

AOCS, BACS, ECMRA and IESD meetings, and is the editor

of CAHA’s global newsletters, LAB MARKET REPORT and

SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS. He is a member of PDMA,

AOCS, ASTM and SPE.

Marilyn L. Bradshaw, Vice President, was the project

leader for ALPHA-OLEFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 2000-2010,

POLYOLEFIN COMONOMERS - WORLD MARKETS, 1995-

2005 and INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF SURFACTANTS

- NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2010. Other multiclient

studies she has directed include U.S. I&I CLEANING

PRODUCTS - SURFACTANT SUPPLIERS AND CUSTOMERS.

She provides consultation to clients on alpha-olefins, and she

also contributes to CAHA’s SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS

newsletter. Since joining CAHA in 1980, she has also been

the project leader for numerous proprietary projects such as

an analysis of the growth prospects for 22 U.S. surfactant

ethoxylators. Ms.Bradshaw has a B.A. from Finch College

and an economics and management certificate from

Manhattanville College.


Erik Rietkerk, Senior Research Associate, is a

highly experienced chemical industry business director

with a strong technical background. Mr. Rietkerk has

demonstrated managerial experience and project

development in oleochemicals as well as business and

marketing experience in chemicals for household and

personal care products, biofuels, mineral oils, and oils and

fats industries. Specific segments include surfactants and

surfactant intermediates, palm and lauric oil derivatives

and refinery/oilfield chemicals. Other areas of competence

include organizational development, M&A, post merger

integration, strategy development, internationalization,

investment projects, cost saving programs and restructuring.

Mr. Rietkerk received his MBA in International Finance from

Warwick Business School, UK, and a BSc in Chemical

Engineering, Dordrecht.

John Rapko, Senior Research Associate, has authored

the Higher Alcohols Technologies section of HIGHER

ALCOHOLS TO 2025, and authored sections of DETERGENT

ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS, 2006-2016. Dr. Rapko

contributes to CAHA’s LAB MARKET REPORT, and has also

assisted on numerous proprietary studies. In Dr. Rapko’s

33 years of professional experience, he has directed the

work of professional chemists and chemical engineers at all

degree levels in the areas of process development, chemistry,

engineering and assessment of a range of technologies

related to areas such as the manufacture of detergent

alkylate, detergent builders and dehydrogenation catalysts.

He holds a Ph.D. and B.S. in Chemistry (ACS Certified) from

St. Louis University.

THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK


inform July/August 2013, Vol. 24 (7) • 435

New higher alcohol capacity to create competi ti ve surfactant marketThe higher alcohols market has expanded rapidly in the past seven years to 2.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2012 as new supply has come onstream, according to a study by Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. (CAHA), a consulting firm in Aiken, South Carolina, USA. Higher alcohols, which are alcohols with 12 or more carbon atoms, are mainly used in the production of surfactants and detergents.

CAHA reports that global consumption of higher alcohols has expanded at a rate of more than 4.5% per year between 2005 and 2012. This impressive performance has been the result of new supplies reaching markets aft er a similar massive addition of oleo-based alcohol capacity between 2005 and 2010. Supply is forecast to grow at twice the rate of demand between 2012 and 2015.

“Over the next few years, use of alcohol-based anionic surfactants may be favored in detergent formulations, as nonionics and alkylbenzene sulfonates face respective supply constraints and competitive cost pressure,” noted CAHA President Joel Houston. “Purifi ed ethylene oxide capacity expansions are not keeping up with the new oleo-alcohol capacity, hindering the growth of ethoxylated products in the short term,” he added. (Common surfactants produced by ethoxylation include alcohol ethoxylates and alcohol ethoxysulfates.)

Demand for alcohol-based products in Asia has exhibited strong growth over the past few years, with new demand developing from the additional requirements of liquid laundry detergent products, which are formu-lated from alcohol-based anionic surfactants. Greater consumption of

CONTINUED ON NExT PAGE

surfactants, Detergents,

& Personal Care News


436 • inform July/August 2013, Vol. 24 (7)

The recent separation of prices between oil palm biofuels and distillate fuels such as kerosene has resulted in a growing advantage for oleo-based chemicals vs. other chemical intermedi-ates of significance. Shale gas economics in North America have improved the cost position of synthetic alcohols to oleos. The shale gas opportunity is generating new investments (particularly by Sasol and Shell) in projects that will continue to support the cost position of synthetic alcohols. CAHA has evaluated recent process developments in sugar-based higher alcohols. Several of these new projects, including those undertaken by LS9 and Codexis, are on the brink of commercialization, and offer a new supply chain route for the future.

A wave of new capacity is set to come onstream during the next 18 months, which will create a flood of alcohol products, the CAHA report suggests (see Table 1). Some producers are slating output to selectively produce mid-cut alcohols, avoiding short- and long-chain co-product economic challenges. More than 1 MMT of planned capacity is expected to start up, and other capac-ity potentially will be added. It remains to be seen if older, less economical units will be forced out of service.

The degree of integration in the alcohols arena has been expanding through forward integration, according to CAHA. Oil palm planters have expanded into alcohol production. In addition, Asian alcohol producers such as Ecogreen, Emery, KLK Oleomas, Musim Mas, and Wilmar have increased participation in the surfactant space through acquisition and grass root activities. Furthermore, the acquisition of Cognis by BASF has brought together their respective strengths in alcohols and ethylene oxide, while expanding the company’s product offerings into a range of specialty products.

Three surfactants accounted for over two thirds of the 2.5 MMT of higher alcohols consumed in 2012: alcohol ether sulfates (38%), alcohol ethoxylates (21%), and alcohol sulfates (13%); and they will continue to dominate alcohol use in every region. The balance of products includes tertiary amine derivatives (betaines, amine oxides, and quaternary ammonium compounds), and other derivatives including alkyl polyglycosides and methacrylate esters, as well as direct end-use compounds.

The higher alcohols market is expected to grow at a base level of 4.9% per year to 2025, but any substitutions for linear alkylbenzene and methyl ester sulfonates will drive the market above this rate, the CAHA study notes. The 700-page report, titled Higher Alcohols to 2025, is available in both print and electronic versions. For more information, visit www.colin-houston.com.

producer location type 2013 2014+ net addition

Codexis United States Micro 60 60

Wilmar Netherlands Davy 150 150

Jiaxiang Sanjiang China Oleo 100 100

Wuhan/HoTung JV China Oleo 160 160

KLK Oleomas Malaysia Davy 100 100

Ecogreen Indonesia Davy 180 180

Musim Mas Indonesia Davy 111 111

Bakrie Sumatera Indonesia Davy 40 40

Wilmar Indonesia Davy 120 120

Pilipinas Kao Philippines 34 34

SABIC Saudi Arabia Lurgi 85 85

total 740 400 1,140

taBlE 1. Announced capacity additions for C12 and higher detergent alcohols by producer (thousand metric tons)a

aSource: Colin A. Houston & Associates.

alcohols in personal care products continues to drive growth as well. Although surplus alcohols are currently being exported to Western markets, trade barriers, duties, and new technology could disrupt this trend, CAHA says.


NORMAL PARAFFINS - WORLD MARKETS, 2007-2017 (February 2009) explores the scale of a looming

shortage and determines the potential impact of merchant

gas-to-liquid n-paraffin capacity to come on-stream in

2011. This study covers the supply of normal paraffins,

producers and their operations, capacities, integration, and

historical and forecast production by region. It also covers

the demand for normal paraffins, including consumption

by region and by end use, market trends and issues, and

future supply/demand balances. PRICE: on request

DETERGENT ALKYLATES - WORLD MARKETS, 2005-2025 (Due Q1-2015) includes a detailed global

analysis of LAB, BAB and their sulfonated derivatives by

region. The study reports on areas of potential substitution,

consumption and trends, as well as competing materials.

It evaluates historical, current and future (based on current

announcements) supplies in each region for LAB, and

documents trade by country for 2013. It also contains

information by region on the capacity outlook.

PRICE: on request

OPPORTUNITIES IN PERFORMANCE SURFACTANTS IN WEST EUROPE (January 2007) provides an in-

depth analysis on each of ten specialty materials. Topics

include product performance and differentiation, costs,

consumption and trends, competing materials and systems,

and major customers as well as producers, including

their production and market share. Thirteen producers

are profiled, giving an added perspective on their overall

position in the specialty surfactants market.

PRICE: on request

LIST OF MULTICLIENT STUDIES

SURFACTANTS FOR CONSUMER PRODUCTS - NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2010 (July

2003) provides a detailed analysis of household detergent

market segments and categories of personal care products,

covering market trends, formulation issues, brands and

market shares, and company strategies. This study focuses

on developments impacting surfactants and intermediates.

In addition, quantitative data by surfactant and by end

use segment is provided for 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005 and

2010. PRICE: on request

INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF SURFACTANTS - NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST TO 2010 (March

2000) analyzes these end uses: Agricultural Chemicals,

Paint, Paper, Plastics & Elastomers, Textiles, and three

construction-related applications -- Asphalt, Cement and

Wallboard. The study quantifies the consumption of over

40 different types of surfactants in 52 subsegments within

eight important end uses, using 1998 as the base year. It

provides end use production data and discusses market

trends, analyzes end use and surfactant technology, and

reports on surfactant customer preferences and practices.

The study forecasts surfactant use by subsegment and by

surfactant for 2000, 2005 and 2010. Historical data is also

included to enhance perspective. PRICE: on request

SURFACTANTS FOR EMERGING MARKETS IN ASIA/PACIFIC, 1995-2010 (March 1999) analyzes

all the factors affecting supply and demand for surfactant

intermediates and surfactants both on a regional basis,

and for individual countries. It quantifies surfactant

consumption by country, by type, and by end use for 1992,

1996, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2010. An analysis of economic

development and other factors affecting market growth in

the Asia/Pacific region is provided as a context for industry

-- and country -- specific discussions and conclusions.

PRICE: on request


LAB MARKET REPORT - is designed to bring together,

in one concise monthly publication, all the news of interest

to LAB market participants. CAHA has published this report

since 2001. It offers current information on the entire LAB

value chain from raw materials to detergents and other

end uses. There are a range of relevant feature articles

included. Each one offers a timely and concise review of the

subject without entering into excruciating historical content

but, nevertheless, providing sufficient content and coverage

so that our readership walks away with a complete picture.

The annually updated LAB DATABASE, included with the

subscription, contains the complete list of detergent

alkylate producers and capacities by region, the LAB trade

balance and LAB price history. A one year subscription

(January-December) to the LAB MARKET REPORT AND

DATABASE includes 12 monthly issues. Delivery of the

newsletter is via Internet access. PRICE: on request

SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS NEWSLETTER -

keeps surfactant producers informed of key news and

developments occurring in their market in a form that

is both concise and thorough. It is designed to help

subscribers make efficient use of their time while gaining

useful knowledge of specific developments and enlarging

their understanding of the major issues shaping the market.

CAHA began publication of this newsletter in 2003, as an

extension of the multiclient SURFACTANT DEVELOPMENTS

- FORECAST TO 2010. A one year subscription (January-

December) includes four quarterly issues. Delivery of the

newsletter is via Internet access. PRICE: on request

LIST OF NEWSLETTERS


Aarhus Oliefabrik A/SAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. AkzoNobelAlbemarle Corp.AmwayAshland Chemical CompanyAvon Products, Inc.BASF Corp.Bayer AGBliss ChemicalBoraxCalgon Corp.Cargill, Inc.CasChemCECACentral SoyaCEPSAChemithonChemturaChevron Phillips Chemical CompanyClariantClorox Co.Colgate-PalmoliveCytecDaelim Industrial Co., Ltd.Deten Quimica S/ADow Chemical CompanyDSMDyno IndustriesEastman Chemical ProductsEcogreen OleochemicalsEcolabE.I. duPont de Nemours & CompanyElevance Renewable SciencesEl Paso Petrochemicals CompanyEthyl Corp.EvonikExxonMobil Chemical Co.Farabi Petrochemical Co.FluorFMC CorporationGenencorGivaudanHaarman & Reimer Corp.HansaHenkelHuntsman Corp.Idemitsu Petrochemical Co. Ltd.IMC Corp.INEOSInolex Corp.ISU ChemicalJX Nippon Oil and Energy Corp.Kao Corp.Kemira OyKLKLam Soon Oil & Soap Mfg.Laporte Industries PLC

Lion Corp.Lonza Inc.Lubrizol Corp.Lyondell ChemicalsMillenium Chemical Corp.Mitsubishi ChemicalMitsui & Co.MuntajatNalco Chemical CompanyNeste OyNova ChemicalNovozymes A/SOccidental Petroleum/OxychemOLEON N.V.ONIDOLOxenoOxitenoPenolesPersanPilotPQ Corp.Procter & Gamble CompanyPZ CussonsReckitt BenckiserReliance IndustriesRuetgers Corp.SABICSasolS.C. Johnson & SonSEEF Ltd.Shell Chemical LPSI GroupSolvay S.A.SpolanaStepan CompanySterling Chemicals, Inc.SumitomoSunocoTamilnadu Petroproducts Ltd.Tetra TechnologiesThai Ethoxylates - PTTTotalFinaElfToyota TsushoTufail ChemicalsUnger Fabrikker A.S.UnileverUniqemaUnited Coconut Chemicals, Inc.UnocalUOP - HoneywellVarelaVenocoVertellus Specialties, Inc.Vulcan Chemical CompanyWarwick International Ltd.Wilmar InternationalW.R. Grace & CompanyYPF

AMONG CAHA’S CLIENTS ARE:

CHEMICAL MARKET RESEARCH EXPERTS SINCE 1971

CAHA ResearchChemical Market Intelligence

Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc.

262 Eastgate Drive 323Aiken, South Carolina 29803 USATelephone 1 803-226-0350Fax 1 803-693-0707Email [email protected] www.colin-houston.com

Documents

Higher Alcohols to 2025 - Colin A. Houston & Associates, Inc. Alcohols to 2025 Prospectus.pdf · The section builds on the results of the Surfactant End Markets analysis in Chapter