High Street UK 2020

Simon Quin & Professor Cathy ParkerInstitute of Place Management, Manchester Metropolitan University

WELCOME

Vitality& viability

2000 2006 2011 2014

49.4%45.7%

42.2% 39.8%

town centre retail spend falling

UK

US

Germany

Sweden

Canada

Netherlands

France

Spain

Poland

Italy

0.00

%

2.00

%

4.00

%

6.00

%

8.00

%

10.0

0%

12.0

0%

14.0

0%

16.0

0%

Share of retail spend that is

online 2014

AlsagerAltrinchamBallymenaBarnsleyCongletonHolmfirthMarket RasenMorleySt George, BristolWrexham

Literature reviewfinding the evidence

164 measures of retail centre performance

1

166 factors that influence performance

2

50 additional factors identified by town partners!

22 experts ranked 201 factors

1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street

2.How much control a location has over the factor

Forget itLive

with it

Not worth it

Get on with it!

How much each factor influences vitality and viability

How

mu

ch c

on

trol

over

a f

act

or

HSUK 2020 model

3.300 3.500 3.700 3.900 4.100 4.300 4.500 4.7002.700

2.900

3.100

3.300

3.500

3.700

3.900

ACTIVITY HOURS

APPEARANCE

RETAILERS

VISION&STRATEGY

EXPERIENCE

MANAGEMENT

MERCHANDISE

NECESSITIES

Anchors

NETWORKS & PART-NERSHIPS

DIVERSITYWALKING

ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE

PLACE ASSURANCE

ATTRACTIVENESS

ACCESSIBLE

PLACE MARKETING

Comparison/convenience

RECREATIONAL SPACE

Barriers to Entry

Chain vs independent

Safety/crime

LIVEABLE

ADAPTABILITY

How much factor influences vitality and viability

How

mu

ch

tow

n c

an

in

flu

en

ce

facto

r

Attractions

Accessibility

Amenity

Action

4 As

RetailersComparison/convenienceChain vs IndependentMerchandise

AnchorsDiversityEntertainment & Leisure

1. Attractionswhat the centre has to offer

WalkingAccessibleLiveable

2. Accessibilitygetting into, out of, and around the centre

Appearance Experience Necessities Attractiveness

Recreational spaceSafety and crimeStore development

3. Amenityexperience within the centre

4. Actionmaking things happen

Activity hoursVision & strategy (leadership)Place marketingManagement

Barriers to entryPlace assuranceAdaptabilityNetworks & partnerships

4. Animatormaking things happen

Repositioning

Reinventing

Rebranding

Restructuring

4 Rs

Restructuringtown centres are complex and contested places. They need vision, leadership and partnership management (Peel 2014, Rainisto 2003)

Footfall dataindicator of vitalitySupplied by Springboard62 UK towns and cities30 months of footfall (2012-2014)563,828,709 people counted!

Spatial

Macro

Meso

Micro

FOOTFALL

Catc

hm

en

t

Econ

om

y Com

peti

tion

Vacancy

Inte

rnet

Location

OrganisationOffer

Spatial

Macro

Meso

Micro

CHURCH ROAD FOOTFALL FORECAST

92,300

Spatial

Resident populationand

employment

Location+ Serves a dense urban population

+ Has nearly 3000 businesses

+Has a resident population

59,976

Meso

Competition Vacancy- Catchment is attracted to

city and rivals- Attractiveness is weakened

by vacancy

53,041

Micro

Organisation Offer

- 13% of footfall lost through lack of organisational

control- Lack of reliable footfall profile. Is CR providing an

appropriate offer? (Comparison, Convenience

or Speciality?)

Mansfield, Gravesend, Grimsby

47,710

MacroAverage monthly footfall in 2020Economy Internet

shopping

Smaller, comparison shopping towns more at risk. Retail parks and Internet taking more footfall.

Why measure footfall? Represents how important you are

to your catchment – not just retail

Tells you what type of town you

are

Tells you if initiatives are working Helps town and stakeholders

adapt to changing conditions

What type of town are you?

1. Comparison Shopping Town

A strong retail offer.

Comparison Shopping towns Wide range of retail choice Strong retail anchor(s) Large catchment area Accessible by choice of means of

transport Organise themselves to compete

with other comparison towns and channels

What type of town are you?

2. Speciality town

A unique offer, including retail, events, heritage, etc.

Speciality towns Offer something unique and

special Anchor(s) not retail Attract visitors but serve local

population Have longer dwell time Organise themselves to protect

and promote identity and positioning

What type of town are you?

3. Convenience/Community town

A convenient location for a mix of retail, services and other benefits.

Convenience/community town Focused on local community (offer,

opening times, events etc) Convenience anchor – work, public

transport, food shopping, markets Offers convenient mix of goods

and services Accessible and locally connected

Convenience/community town Organise themselves to manage

accessibility, concentration, reliability, and customer service……and identify additions to augment offer (click & collect etc)

and Church Road?

We don’t know….

A convenience/community centre?

Footfall profile needed to assess

Questions1. What type of centre is Church

Road now?

2. What type of centre will meet the needs of the 2020 catchment?

3. How is the area organised and how will you address the 25 HSUK2020 priorities?simon@placemanagement.org