HermanAguinisAvram TuckerDistinguishedScholar&

ProfessorofManagementSchoolofBusiness

GeorgeWashingtonUniversitywww.hermanaguinis.com

It’sBeenanExtraordinaryFirstYear@GW

THANK YOU!!

ResearchPhilosophyandInterests• Professionalandlifeagenda• Problem-focused,interdisciplinary,andmulti-method

research:• Talentmanagement• Howtoturntalentmanagementintoasourceof

inimitableandsustainablecompetitiveadvantageand,simultaneously,improveemployeewell-being?

• Researchmethodsandanalysis• Howtoimproveresearchmethodsandanalysisto

makeimportanttheoryadvancementswithclearimplicationsforpracticeandpolicies?

ExamplesofRecentProjectsHowcanweenhanceemployeeengagement?• Aguinis,H.,&Glavas,A.inpress.Oncorporatesocialresponsibility,

sensemaking,andthesearchformeaningfulnessthroughwork.JournalofManagement.doi:10.1177/0149206317691575

Whatisthecausalchainofleadership?• Bergh,D.D.,Aguinis,etal.,2016.Usingmeta-analyticstructuralequation

modelingtoadvancestrategicmanagementresearch:Guidelinesandanempiricalillustrationviathestrategicleadership-performancerelationship.StrategicManagementJournal,37:477-497.

Howtoproduceandmanagestarperformers?• Joo,H.,Aguinis,H.,&Bradley,K.J.2017.Notallnon-normaldistributionsare

createdequal:Improvedtheoreticalandmeasurementprecision.JournalofAppliedPsychology,102:1022-1053.

Today’sPresentation• Starperformers

• Credibilitycrisisinscience

• Insightsfromtalentmanagementresearchandtheorieshelpusunderstand:• Howtoproduceandmanagestarperformers• Howtoaddressthecredibilitycrisisconceptualizedas

aperformanceproblem(i.e.,“researchperformance”problem)

Argentinaearly1970s…

StarPerformersinSports

• 1974:Soccercards—SoccerWorldCupinMunich• Grzegorz Lato scored7 goals,JohanNeeskensandAndrzej

Szarmach scored5 goals,3otherplayers4 goals,6players3goals,9players2 goals,29players1 goal,andabout170playersscoredzerogoals

• 5ofthe6topscorersinthethreebestteams(outof16)

NotJustinSports…• MarkZuckerberg:

“Someonewhoisexceptionalintheirroleisnotjustalittlebetterthansomeonewhoisprettygood…Theyare100timesbetter”

NotJustinSports…• MarcAndreessen:“Fivegreat

programmerscancompletelyoutperform1,000mediocreprogrammers”

NotJustinSports…• JackWelch:“Theteamwiththe

bestplayerswins”

DifferentSamples&Measures• Multiplestudiesincludingmorethan600,000people:

• Researchersinmorethan50academicdisciplines• Actors,actresses,directors,choreographers,andlighting

specialistsinthemovieandTVindustries• Fictionandnonfictionwriters• Musicians• ElectedofficialsintheUnitedStatesandothercountry-level

legislativebodies(e.g.,Australia,Canada,Ireland,Estonia)• Professionalandcollegiateathletesinfootball,baseball,

basketball,cricket,swimming,trackandfield,skiing,tennis,andothersports(individualandteamsports)

• Othertypesofworkersincludingbanktellers,callcenteremployees,grocerycheckers,electricalfixtureassemblers,wirers

HowMuchBetteraretheBest?• About65.8%ofresearchersfallbelowthemean

numberoftop-tierjournalarticlespublished

• BasedontheEmmy-nominatedentertainers,83.3%fallbelowthemeanintermsofnumberofnominations

• ForUSRepresentatives,67.9%fallbelowthemeanintermsofnumberoftimeselected

• ForNBAplayers,71.1%arebelowthemeanintermsofpointsscored

Let’sFormalizetheseResults…

𝜇Normal

Performance

Num

ber

of W

orke

rs

Low High

High

Low

𝜇Heavy-tailed

𝑝 𝑥 ∝ 𝑥%& ,wherealpha(α)(>1)istherateofdecay

The“Normal”ViewofPerformance

NationalPublicRadio’sMorningEdition(900stations,20millionlisteners)

JustThreeExamples(of100s)

HowGoogle’sVPforPeopleOperationsSummarizedourResults

ResearchProgram:RelevantSources• Availableatwww.hermanaguinis.com:• O’Boyle,E.,&Aguinis,H.2012.Thebestandtherest:Revisitingthe

normofnormalityofindividualperformance.PersonnelPsychology,65:79-119.

• Aguinis,H.,&O’Boyle,E.2014.Starperformersintwenty-first-centuryorganizations.PersonnelPsychology,67:313-350.

• Crawford,G.C.,Aguinis,H.,etal.2015.Powerlawdistributionsinentrepreneurship:Implicationsfortheoryandresearch.JournalofBusinessVenturing,30:696-713.

• Aguinis,H.,O’Boyle,E.,Gonzalez-Mulé,E.,&Joo,H.2016.Cumulativeadvantage:Conductorsandinsulatorsofheavy-tailedproductivitydistributionsandproductivitystars.PersonnelPsychology,69:3-66.

• Joo,H.,Aguinis,H.,&Bradley,K.J.2017.Notallnon-normaldistributionsarecreatedequal:Improvedtheoreticalandmeasurementprecision.JournalofAppliedPsychology, 102:1022-1053.

SomeImplicationsforTheory• Increasedstarpresencein21st-centuryorganizations:job

complexity,reducedsituationalconstraints,moreautonomy,flexiblehierarchies,moreaccesstoknowledgeandinformation

• Theadditionanddepartureofstarshasextraordinaryconsequencesonoverallorganizationalproductivity

• Therelationbetweenperformanceandvaluefollowsanon-linearfunctionwithapproximately30%ofvaluevestedinthetop10%ofworkersand50%ofvaluevestedinthetop25%

• Thenon-linearrelationshipbetweenindividualperformanceandvalueismoderatedbyaposition’sdegreeofproximitytoanorganization’sstrategiccorecompetence:steepercurveasproximityincreases

• Performance-basedpaydispersion(i.e.,payforperformance)leadstoincreasedstarperformerretentionandlesspaydispersionleadstoincreasedstarperformanceturnover

GivenTheseResults…Implicationsforpractice:

• Yoursuggestionsforproducingstarperformers?• Yoursuggestionsfor“cloning”starperformers?• Yoursuggestionsformanagingstarperformers?• Yoursuggestionsforretainingstarperformers?• Yoursuggestionsformanagingaverageperformers?

SomeImplicationsforPractice• Minimizesituationalconstraints(i.e.,ceilingconstraints)facedby

workerstoallowfortheemergenceofmorestarperformers• Allowstarperformerstorevolveinandoutofteamsbecausethis

widensthestar’snetworkandtakesfulladvantageofknowledgetransfertorisingstars

• Firmsexperiencingfinancialdifficultiesshouldpayspecialattentiontostarperformersasbudgetcuts,downsizing,andothercostcuttingmeasuressignalsthattheorganizationisindeclineandleadstopreemptivestardeparture

• I-dealsforstarsshouldbeclearlyarticulatedandappliedfairly—everyonecanbecomeastar

• Managersinvestingadisproportionateamountoftheirresourcesintostarsgenerategreateroveralloutputandcreatepositivegainspirals

SomeImplicationsforPractice• Nothingwrongwithbeingan

averageperformer!• AbbyWambach(184goalsin

internationalmatches):“I’veneverscoredagoalwithoutgettingapassfromsomeoneelse.”

• Managementpracticessuchasnon-performancebasedincentives,limitedpaydispersion,andlongevity-basedpromotiondecisionsthatemphasizehomogeneitydemotivatestarsandleadtotheirpsychologicalwithdrawal,emotionaldetachment,andeventually(whentherightopportunityappears)theirdeparture

StarPerformers• Otherthoughts?• Otherreactions?

Let’sSwitchGears…

CredibilityCrisisinScience

• Between30%to60%ofthepublishedempiricalstudiesarenotreplicableinseveralscientificfields…• Psychology• Economics• Management• Notjustasocialscienceproblem…

ResultsofaNature Survey

Source:Baker,M.2016.1,500scientistsliftthelidonreproducibility.Nature,533:452-454.

Psychology• 100experimentalandnon-experimentalstudiesinthree

leadingpsychologyjournals• 270authorsconductedthe100replications• Replicationswithhighfidelitytotheoriginaldesigns• Results:

• Meanr declinedfrom.40to.20• Numberofstatisticallysignificantresultsdeclinedfrom

97%to36%• Effectsizer declinedin53%oftheeffectsizes• Replicationfailurerate:60%

Source:OpenScienceCollaboration.2015.Estimatingthereproducibilityofpsychologicalscience.Science,349(6251):aac4716.

Economics• 18experimentsinAmericanEconomicReviewandQuarterly

JournalofEconomics,2011-2014• 18authorsandresearchdesignwasverifiedbyoriginal

authors• Results:

• Overall,40%notreplicable• Meaneffectsize=.47originalstudies,.28replication• Non-experimentalresearch:morethan75%not

replicable

Source:Camerer,C.F.,etal.2016.Evaluatingreplicabilityoflaboratoryexperimentsineconomics.Science,7/9/17351(6280):1433-1436.

Management• Reproducibility:Retestthehypothesesusingthesamedataas

intheoriginalstudy• 88OLSregressionorSEMmodelsasreportedinStrategic

ManagementJournal• 70%reportedincompletedatatoallowforanytypeof

reproducibilityattempt• Ofthosethatcouldbereproduced,about1in3hypothesistests

ledtostatisticallynon-significantratherthansignificantconclusions

Source:Bergh,D.D.,Sharp,B.M.,Aguinis,H.,&Li,M.2017.Isthereacredibilitycrisisinstrategicmanagementresearch?Evidenceonthereproducibilityofstudyfindings.StrategicOrganization,15:423-436.

The Perfect Storm…

• Increasedpressuretopublishin“A”journalsandincreasedrejectionratesandnumbersubmissionsat“A”journals

• Increasedmethodologicalsophistication• Decreasedresourcesfordoctoral&facultytraining& retooling• Increaseddemandstobecome“daVinciAcademics”

OnTorturingtheDataUntiltheyConfess

WhatDoFrenchCuisineandManyJournalArticlesHaveinCommon?• Thefinal“perfect”product…

TorturingtheDataUntiltheyConfess• Whathappenedinthe“researchkitchen”?• Selectionofvariablestoincludeinamodel• Useofcontrolvariables• Handlingofoutliers• Reportingofp-values• Hypothesizingafterresultsareknown(HARKing)

TalentManagementInsights:PerformanceProblem• Performanceisdeterminedmostlybytwomajorfactors(e.g.,

VanIddekinge,Aguinis,Mackey,&DeOrtentiis,inpress,JournalofManagement):• Knowledge,skills,andabilities(KSAs)

• Oneneedstoknow howtodothejobwell• Motivation

• Oneneedstowant todothejobwell• ResearchersneedtohavethenecessaryKSAstocreate

reproducibleandreplicableknowledge—knowledgethatwillbecredible,trustworthy,anduseful

• Researchersneedtowanttocreatereproducibleandreplicableknowledge

“ResearchPerformance”Problem• KSAs:

• Reducedtrainingfordoctoralstudents• Methodologycoursesoften“outsourced”• Reducedresourcesforre-toolingofmoreseniorresearchers• Someuniversityadministratorserroneouslyperceive

doctoralprogramsasa“costcenter”ratherthan“research-capabilities&research-culture-buildingcenter”

• Motivation:• Pressuretopublishin“A”journalsbyallmeansnecessary• 1994vs.2013inJournalofAppliedPsychology:

• Tellinga“goodstory”seemscriticalbasedonnumberofpages:Introduction(2.49to3.90),Discussion(1.71to2.69),Method(1.58to1.81),Results(2.41to2.34)

ShouldWeDoAnythingAboutthisinOurFields?AtGWSB?• Accounting?• Decisionsciences?• Finance?• Informationsystems&technologymanagement?• Internationalbusiness?• Management?• Marketing?• Strategicmanagementandpublicpolicy?

OurModestProposals• Availableatwww.hermanaguinis.com:• Aguinis,H.,Ramani,R.S.,&Alabduljader,N.inpress.Whatyouseeis

whatyouget?Enhancingmethodologicaltransparencyinmanagementresearch.AcademyofManagementAnnals.

• Aguinis,H.,Cascio,W.F.,&Ramani,R.S.2017.Science’sreproducibilityandreplicabilitycrisis:Internationalbusinessisnotimmune.JournalofInternationalBusinessStudies,48:653-663.

• Gonzalez-Mulé,E.,&Aguinis,H.inpress.Advancingtheorybyassessingboundaryconditionswithmeta-regression:Acriticalreviewandbest-practicerecommendations.JournalofManagement.

• McKenny,A.F.,Aguinis,H.,Short,J.C.,&Anglin,A.H.inpress.Whatdoesn’tgetmeasureddoesexist:Improvingtheaccuracyofcomputer-aidedtextanalysis.JournalofManagement.

OurModestProposals• Aguinis,H.,Edwards,J.R.,&Bradley,K.J.2017.Improvingour

understandingofmoderationandmediationinstrategicmanagementresearch.OrganizationalResearchMethods,20:665-685

• Bernerth,J.&Aguinis,H.2016.Acriticalreviewandbest-practicerecommendationsforcontrolvariableusage.PersonnelPsychology,69:229-283.

• Bosco,F.A.,Aguinis,H.,Field,J.G.,Pierce,C.A.,&Dalton,D.R.2016.HARKing’s threattoorganizationalresearch:Evidencefromprimaryandmeta-analyticsources.PersonnelPsychology,69:709-750.

• Aguinis,H.,Gottfredson,R.K.,&Joo,H.2013.Best-practicerecommendationsfordefining,identifying,andhandlingoutliers.OrganizationalResearchMethods,16:270-301.

TalentManagementResearchandTheoriesofferUsefulInsights…• Ifwewanttoproduce,manage,retain,and“clone”star

performers

• Ifwewanttounderstandandaddressthecredibilitycrisisandthechallenging“researchperformanceproblem”inmanagement,economics,psychology,andmanyotherfields

• Articlesavailableatwww.hermanaguinis.com

THANKYOU!!!