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HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS Albert Lu, Ph. D Global Head of Applications Development

HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

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Page 1: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH

EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS

Albert Lu, Ph. D

Global Head of Applications Development

Page 2: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HPT Beijing Media Day | Andreas Liebheit | Beijing, 2018

› A global active portfolio company

› One of the largest family owned

companies in Germany,

listed in Fortune Global 500

› More than 100 sites in 40 countries

› The shareholder’s group contains

approx. 240 persons

HERAEUS – GLOBALLY SUCCESSFUL

2

26% 17%

America

12% 38%

Germany

2%

Africa/Australia

43% 31%

Asia

17% 13%

Europe excluding Germany

1% Total revenue Employees worldwide

Page 3: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Electronics

Industrial Applications

Health

Mobility

Environment

AREAS OF EXPERTISE

Environment

Catalysts, precious metal recycling,

components for photovoltaic industry

MobilitySensors for automobiles, bonding and

contact materials for power electronics,

infrared emitters for curing paint

Industrial ApplicationsSensors, coatings, precious metal colors,

bonding wires

Electronics

Materials for touchscreens and displays,

Power electronics components, contact

materials, Quartzglass

Health Bone cements and biomaterials, surgical

medical components and body implants,

precious metals for pharmaceutical industry

3 HPT Beijing Media Day | Andreas Liebheit | Beijing, 2018 5

Page 4: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HPT Beijing Media Day | Andreas Liebheit | Beijing, 2018

WORLD TOTAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2017 - 2021

4

Source: Solarpower Europe 2017

Page 5: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HPT Beijing Media Day | Andreas Liebheit | Beijing, 2018

PANEL COST V.S. CELL TECHNOLOGIES

5

Source: HPT Own

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Panel Price V.S. Cell Technologies

Cell efficiency P type panel price

Pa

ne

l co

st (U

S$

/W)

Ce

ll e

ffic

iency

BSF+PERC DWC+PERC Multi PERC 2.0 Mono PERC N PERT/

TOPCon HJT IBC

N PERT/TOPCon

module price

HJT module price

50% price off in every 5 years

Page 6: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

CELL OPTIMIZATION SERVICE (COS)

3/7/2018 6

Utilization

› Applicable to the standard BSF, PERC and n-type bifacial cells

› Adaptable to customers current processes

Purpose

› Reduce trial and error experiments by utilizing the analysis and simulation framework

› Provide efficiency gain by modifying the current process to fit the optimized profile obtained from the model

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

Page 7: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Cell Analysis report | Dr. Wilson | Applications Development 3/7/2018 7

CURRENT LOSS ANALYSIS

• EQE is good and uniform for the samples.

• Improvement efforts should focus on improving ARC losses and shading

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

300

335

370

405

440

475

510

545

580

615

650

685

720

755

790

825

860

895

930

965

100

01

03

51

07

01

10

51

14

01

17

5

Wavelength (nm)

Current Loss Mechanisms

Metal Shading Loss ARC reflectance loss

Front surface escape NIR parasitic absorption

base collection loss blue loss

non-uniformity loss full area EQE

Cell Current OK

Base collection loss Excellent

NIR parasitic absorb OK

Front surface escape OK

ARC reflectance Aim for 0.7

Blue loss Excellent

Shading Aim for 1.6

Non-uniformity loss Very good

Comments

Page 8: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Cell Analysis report | Dr. Wilson | Applications Development 3/7/2018 8

FF LOSS ANALYSIS

~2.3% FF loss due to series

resistance

Excellent

Calculated Rs Components (Area

weighted) (cm2)

Front busbar 0.1

Front fingers 0.1

Front contact 0.21

Bulk 0.01

Rear busbar 0.02

Rear fingers 0.03

Emitter lateral resistance 0.16

Rear contact 0.05

Back surface field lateral resistance 0.02

Total series resistance 0.72

High Rs from front contact resistance and

emitter lateral resistance.

One should improve front grid design to

minimize lateral resistance.

Improve diffusion & paste combination to

reduce front contact resistance.

Page 9: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Cell Analysis report | Dr. Wilson | Applications Development 3/7/2018 9

VOC LOSS ANALYSIS

• J01 for passivation (emitter + base) has room for improvement

• Metal induced recombination current J01 is also very high, which needs to be improved.

passivation (emitter + base) (n=2)

passivation (emitter + base) (n=1)

Equivalent J01 at open circuit, in fA/cm2

• Very high equivalent metal J01 at Voc (estimated

J01,metal is very high ~4000 fA/cm2)

Page 10: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

3/7/2018 10

SOLAR CELL MODELING 电池模拟

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.51E16

1E17

1E18

1E19

1E20

1E21

emitter 1: 88ohm/sq

emitter 2: 96 ohm/sq

emitter 3:105 ohm/sq

Do

pan

t C

on

c. (c

m-3

)

Depth (m)

400 600 800 1000 12000

20

40

60

80

100

88ohm/sq emitter

96 ohm/sq emitter

105 ohm/sq emitter

EQ

E (

%)

Wavelength (nm)

Significant improvement

at 300-400nm range

Emitter simulation & performance predication

扩散模拟以及电池效率模拟

emitter 1

(88ohm/sq)

emitter 2

(96ohm/sq)

emitter 3

(105ohm/sq)

20.84

20.86

20.88

20.9

20.92

20.94

20.96

20.98

Eff (

%)

emitter 1

(88ohm/sq)

emitter 2

(96ohm/sq)

emitter 3

(105ohm/sq)

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

J0e

implied Voc

J0

e (

fA/c

m2)

665

670

675

680

imp

lied V

OC (

mV

)

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

Page 11: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

SOL9651D FOR DWC WAFERS

New generation high efficiency front-side paste

› Excellent adhesion on DWC and Black Silicon高拉力

› Improved contact resistance and Isc 优异接触电阻及短流

› Excellent long-term printability 优异长期印刷性

› Up to 0.1% Efficiency gain over SOL9641 Series 高效

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 11

Adhesion

[N/mm]

mc

standard

DWC +

Additive

DWC +

MCCE

SOL9651D 3.12 2.84 3.5

DWC + Additive

金刚线切片+添加剂制绒

DWC + MCCE

金刚线切片+湿法黑硅

3/7/2018

Page 12: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

SOL9651DX: IMPROVED CONTACT AND FINELINE PRINTING

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 12

26 µm Knotless Baseline 9651D

Laydown (mg) 101 103

Width (µm) 43.6 40.7

Height (µm) 17.1 17.7

Aspect Ratio 39% 43.5%

3/7/2018

9651D 9641A

Page 13: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

3/7/2018 HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 13

SOL9651D: PROVEN ON VARIOUS DWC WAFERS

9651D vs

Competitor Competitor 9651D

Eff (%) 18.87% +0.06%

Voc (mV) 636.8 0.4

Isc (A) 8.994 +0.013

FF (%) 80.20 +0.08

Rs (mΩ) 1.43 -

Adhesion (N) Pass Pass

9651D vs

Baseline Customer 1 Customer 2

Eff (%) +0.08% +0.06%

Voc (mV) +1 0

Isc (A) +0.046 +0.024

FF (%) +0.10 +0.02

Rs (mΩ) -.09 -0.04

On MCCE wafers:

› Multiple customers have confirmed

› Excellent adhesion

› Higher Isc, FF and Efficiency

On DWC + Additive wafers:

› 9651D beats the competition

› Higher Isc, FF and Efficiency

3/7/2018

Page 14: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

SOL9651B: FLAGSHIP PASTE FOR MONO PERC

New generation high efficiency front-side paste

› Outstanding efficiency through superior contact on ULDE

› Ultra-fine-line (UFL) screen printing for defect-free mass

production and low laydown

› Ultimate performance on mono PERC

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 14

90

75

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

9641B 9651B

Reference screen: mesh 360.16, FO: 30um.

Testing screen: mesh 360.16, FO:25um

9651B vs Baseline

Laydown (mg) 75

Effic. (%) +0.05~0.1%

Voc (mV) +0.9

Isc (A) +0.21

3/7/2018

Page 15: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

9651B DESIGN STRATEGY FOR ULDE & ULTRA-FINE-LINE

HPT-R&D | 9/9/2016

Contact on ULDE

• Contact formation optimized for doping level and emitter profile;

• Firing/process window

• Balanced contact and adhesion

Voc

• Glass chemistry adjustment;

• Glass thermal behavior tweak

• Reactivity and sintering with silver powders and substrate

Ultra-fineline

• Particle-interaction

• Paste-substrate-screen interaction;

• Intrinsic paste property characterization

• Smooth finger top

What we designed from?

Page 16: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

SOL9360 SERIES: N-TYPE PASTE

Al/Ag Paste for p+ Surface on n-type Cells

› Excellent contact on high efficiency p+ emitter cell

designs

› Improved printability and excellent processing

properties

› Up to 0.2% Efficiency gain

SOL9360 Series – Improved Characteristics

Impro

vem

ents

rela

tive t

o S

OL9350C

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 3/7/2018 16

21.00

20.75

20.50

20.25

20.00

9360A9350A

10.30

10.25

10.20

10.15

0.680

0.675

0.670

0.665

9360A9350A

73

72

71

0.0095

0.0090

0.0085

0.0080

0.0075

9360A9350A

130

120

110

100

Eta Isc Voc

FF Rs3 GridResFront_14

20.53

20.27

10.27

10.22 0.6730.672

72.22

71.85

0.00850.0088

98.43

120.10

Page 17: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Single print Double print

Zeta

top

view

SEM

cross

section

› 2x drop in contact resistance!

› Excellent printability for Fineline and Double print

applications

› Thin and uniform lines

› Printable to 28µm openings

› High FF due to high aspect ratio (0.42)

SOL9360: IMPROVED CONTACT AND PRINTABILITY

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 3/7/2018 17

SOL9360ASOL9350C

17.5

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

Paste

rho

C [

mO

hm

cm

²]

5.6095

11.1235

Boxplot of rhoC [mOhmcm²]rhoC (mOhm-cm2)

SOL9350C SOL9360

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

5.0

11.12

5.61

Page 18: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

SOL9360 SERIES: DOUBLE PRINT

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

% SOL9360 gains over previous generation

η gain

0.18%

SOL9360 shows excellent performance in double print applications.

Modeling shows that even more gains are possible!

Eff Voc Isc FF

3/7/2018 18

-0.10%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

96 106 116 126 136

4BB, 1.1mm

Lineshape of Baseline

Lineshape of 9360A

-0.05%

0.05%

0.15%

0.25%

0.35%

0.45%

96 106 116 126 136

5BB, 0.7mm

Lineshape of Baseline

Lineshape of 9360A

Page 19: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

SOL570 SERIES FOR HJT

Low Temperature Curing Silver for HJT Cells

› Significantly improved Contact and Adhesion

› Room temperature storage and fast cure

› Enabling the highest efficiency cells!

HJT Solar Cell

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 3/7/2018 19

Page 20: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

› Operable and storable at room temperature

› Contact resistivity to ITO <2mcm²

› Line resistivity <5x bulk Ag

› Printable through <35µm screen openings

SOL570 SERIES FOR HJT

SOL570

Height

Mean Width

Mean

21.3 32

Reference

Height

Mean Width

Mean

Average 11.0 87.4

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 9/27/2017 20

Page 21: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HeraGlaze© SiO2 diffusion barrier coating

› Prevents transfer of impurities (e.g. Fe) from

crucible into Si-melt

› Increases yield per ingot

› Improves carrier lifetime and cell efficiency

› No CAPEX required: In-situ applicability for

all crucibles

HERAGLAZE© – INNOVATIVE FUNCTIONAL COATING FOR

HIGHER PURITY MULTI-SI CELLS

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 21

Standard Crucible

HeraGlaze layer

Si3N4 layer

Si melt / ingot

Stops impurity diffusion

Sto

ps im

purity

diffu

sio

n

3/7/2018

Page 22: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

VALUE PROPOSITION OF HERAGLAZE©

Customer Value:

Higher yield per ingot

Improved cell efficiency

ADVANTAGE of HeraGlaze©

BENEFIT

of HeraGlaze©

HeraGlaze© Standard

Reduced red-zone and improved carrier lifetime Tau [µs]

carrier lifetime measured by

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 22 3/7/2018

Page 23: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

IMPURITY COMPARISON

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

Typical value [in ppm] Al Ca Cu K Mg Fe Mn Na Li

Heraeus HeraGlaze© 0.035 0.1 0.005 0.04 <0.01 0.07 0.005 0.01 0.043

Shunyang China 14 1 0.01 0.30 0.30 0.80 0.10 0.60

Hejing China 1.53 0.27 1.38 1.18 0.93

Runchi China 10.37 0.82 0.06 0.26 0.09 1.02 1.72 0.55

Pacific China 15 0.4 <0.05 0.6 0.1 0.2 <0.05 0.8 0.5

Sinoma China 5.8 4.4 <0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 <0.2 3.2 <0.4

23 3/7/2018

Page 24: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

MICROSTRUCTURE OF THE DENSIFIED LAYER

HeraGlaze© builds up an even, densified, transparent and

glassy layer, which closes the open structure of silica

crucible.

Good roughness Ra > 5µm for adhesion of Si3N4 coating.

Electron microscope

HeraGlaze©

Silica crucible

Silica crucible

HeraGlaze©

Light-optical microscope

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 3/7/2018

HeraGlaze© a dense structure (porosity <3%) without

grain boundaries and/or cracks.

Superior bonding with crucible substrate, therefore no

delamination.

24

- confidential -

Page 25: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 3/7/2018

PERMEATION OF OXYGEN MEASURED BY

25

1.0E+15

1.0E+16

1.0E+17

1.0E+18

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Oxy

gen

Oi c

oen

trat

ion

[at

om

s/cm

³]

Height of Si-crystal* [mm]

Standard-Crucible Standard-Crucible coated with HeraGlaze© Crucible with high-purity inner layer available in the market place

Comparison Standard to HeraGlaze©: No increase of oxygen content measurable

Comparison Standard to other high-purity inner layer: Competitor’s high-purity inner layer increases oxygen content significantly

* Crystallization and tests have been conducted in G1-crucibles and in accordance to standard industry processes.

x9

x5

x10 Competitor’s high-purity inner layer increases

oxygen content by factors 5, 9 and >10 over

the height of G1 crystal.

HeraGlaze© and standard process on same

oxygen level.

Page 26: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

QUARTZ TUBE TO IMPROVE YOUR PV PRODUCTION PROCESSES

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV 26

Quartz tube

› For use in Meyer Burger SiNx and MAiA

› Tailor-made products to suit individual

production processes

› High consistency of heating improves product

yield

3/7/2018

Page 27: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

27

We are proud of the fact that we have a 99.5% pass rate for all the products we test, clearly demonstrating why we are a global force in Quartz and ceramic technologies. KEY BENEFITS: 1,Consistent high level performance

2,Excellent dimensional stability.

3,High purity, high transmittance and high

temperature.

4,+ 20% life time at least.

5,Competitive Cost

Page 28: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Enabling novel interconnection technology – shingled cell modules

› Printing CA on edge of laser cut cell strips

(1/5 or 1/6 of standard cells)

› Shingle/stack these cells overlapping to form string

› Flexibility of adhesive interconnection helps

to reduce thermal stress in TC tests

› Module efficiency gains compared to

standard interconnection method (up to 10%)

› Stringer equipment available

ECA FOR SHINGLED MODULES

Schematic drawing of shingling concept:

Close-ups of shingled cells:

Cell

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

Adhesive

28 09/27/2017

Page 29: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

Electrically Conductive Adhesives (ECA) for

shingled modules

• Fast curing-time < 30 s

• High adhesion > 1 N

• Excellent conductivity

• Superior reliability and long-term stability

• Low silver content < 40 %

10-20 W power gain per module

• No loss in ribbons

• No shading of ribbons

• Increased active area

Trial run at partner site ongoing

HERAEUS PHOTOVOLTAICS - LEADING THE FUTURE OF PV

ECA FOR SHINGLED MODULES

29

Interconnection

with ECA

09/27/2017

Page 30: HERAEUS SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS PV Expo_Albert_EN.pdf · ›A global active portfolio company ›One of the largest family owned companies in Germany, listed in

HERAEUS TECHNOLOGIES: REDUCING LCOE* OF RENEWABLE SYSTEM

HPT Beijing Media Day | Andreas Liebheit | Beijing, 2018 30

*LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity

possible with

Heraeus technologies 1/3 Renewable system LCOE-reduction

within next 5 years: