Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised European ... · Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator? Or is it a electric grid stabilizer? Heat pumps as key technologies

1

Heat pumps as key technologies for a

decarbonised European building sector!

How to unleash the potential?

https://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.keepthecityout.co.uk%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FLondon-air-pollution.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.greenandgrowing.org%2Fair-pollution-invisible-effects%2F&docid=TwxVXlireNk7IM&tbnid=5YjPjBmTXLZuIM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjmwL7WqpjYAhVJJVAKHS7XC9oQMwgqKAQwBA..i&w=750&h=416&client=firefox-b-ab&bih=705&biw=1280&q=london%20air%20pollution&ved=0ahUKEwjmwL7WqpjYAhVJJVAKHS7XC9oQMwgqKAQwBA&iact=mrc&uact=8

2

The urgency to act … has just increased

Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020

3

«The main headlines from this

year‘s stats review is that both

global energy demand and

carbon emissions grew in 2018

at their fastest rate in 7-8 years»

Spencer Dale, Chief Economist BP

Reality 2018: Energy demand & CO2 emissions growing (+2%),

Reality 2019: Economy growing & CO2 emissions flatten


4 Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.20204

5 Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020

6

Source: Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Energy Transition in Europe Across Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors

100% renewable heating is possible – with heat pumps


70%

http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/EWG-LUT_Full-Study_Energy-Transition-Europe.pdf

7

The electrification of industrial heat


Approx. 27% in 2050

7

8

130 Members

Heat pump manufacturers

Component manufacturers

National associations

Consultants

Research & test institutes

22countries

represented

EHPARue d Arlon 63 - Brussels

Vision

In a fully decarbonised

Europe, heat-pump

technologies are the

number one heating

and cooling solution,

being a core enabler

for a renewable,

sustainable and smart

energy system.

The European Heat Pump Association aisbl / founded 2000

Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020

9

Heat pumps are everywhere


10

Residential

Application

s

Commercial

Applications

Industrial

Application

s

District

Heating

Big buildings

Heat pumps provide heating, cooling and hot water for...


11

Energy sources for heat pumps


12

Is it a heatpump? Is it an air conditioner?

Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator?


Integration of services based

on the refrigerant cycle

heating Hot water

cooling dehumidification

wa

rme

r

co

lde

r

Climaterefrigeration

13

Heat pumps balance a “high-RES-electricity grid“


Source: SMA

14

Lets add a few items: electric and thermal batteries, PV

panels, some ventilation, smartness …


el battery

th battery photovoltaics

15

Fot. Bogdan

Achimescu

Heat pump benefits:

less air pollution in cities: example Krakow


Thanks to Port PC for the example

16

Reduction of heat islands


17

Is it a heatpump? Is it an air conditioner?

Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator?

Or is it a electric grid stabilizer?


wa

rme

r

co

lde

r

Climate

Demand

side

flexibility

Integration of services

based on the refrigerant

cycle

heating Hot water

cooling dehumidification

refrigeration

Air

qua

lity

18

market growth ‘05 – ’19 | HP stock2019: 13 mill. installed


2019e

1,45m

10%e

19

The EU leaderboard of annual HP sales 2018


Huge untapped potential

in large

heating and cooling

markets ...

sta

ts.e

hp

a.o

rg

19

20

Absolute growth per country and year

Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020 20

21

Heat pump benefits 2019e

Based on 13 million heat pumps installed


Fossil final

energy

savingse

CO2

savingse

Renewable

energye

180TWh

36Mt

Demand response

potentialUp to

3.5 TWh

Clean air

130TWh

No PM at point of

operation

21

Auxiliary

energy

➔ useful energy

➔ If auxiliary energy is

green, heat pumps

provide

100% green heat

22

Heat pump manufacturing in Europe


103 sites

22

23

5.6 million

boilers

1.1 mill. heating heat

pumps (19.6%)

7.8 million

sanitary hot water

161 000 dedicated hot

water heat pumps (2%)

• Use of fossil energy for heating dominates in Europe!

• To decarbonise heating and cooling heat pumps are a perfect option

Industrial

heating and

cooling?

Heat Pumps in the EU heating system 2018


24 Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised EU energy system! | MAHOSZ | Budapest | 12.2.2020

Energy efficiency

directive

Energy efficiency on systems level (+calculations for HP)

+

Comprehensive assessments on heating and cooling

+

Energy performance of

buildings directive

New builds, renovation strategy + modernisation of H&C

+

Smart buildings +

Renewable energy

directive

Definitions: renewable energy / renewable cooling

Sectorial target for renewable heating / cooling

+Governance Regulation

National energy and climate plans (NECP)

Improved data situation

+

Electricity market design Flexible tariffs, smart grids

F-gas regulation Reduction of F-Gas related emissions + -

European Green Deal

Transition towards a zero-CO2 emission society

More ambitious CO2 – emission target

Price for CO2-emission

Cle

an

en

erg

y 4

all

Eu

rop

ea

ns

pa

ck

ag

e

If not

successful

Long term strategyfossil molecules 🡺 green molecules (H2/CH4) or

biomass

++

++

++

++

+

+

+

--

--+

National legislation F-gas taxation, certification requirements, standards + -

+ -Ecodesign regulations Revision of lot 1&2, 10 and 33

25

< 1% annual increase of

renewable share

Total final energy demand for heating /

cooling|EU28


1st RES D RES D II

25

26

• RE heating/cooling, acknowledge waste heat

• Min. share of RES in buildings

• Annual increase of RE heating/cooling (Art. 23)

• More power to prosumers (heat & electricity)

• Upward revision

• Part of nat. energy & climate plans (NECP‘s)

+1.3pp

2023

Renewable Energy DirectiveHeat pumps use renewable energy from air / water / soil, waste energy treated similarly


renewable

32

%

26

27

indicative

Energy efficiency directive (2012/27/EU,

2018/2002/EU) Heat pumps are the most efficient technology for heating and cooling


• Obligation to reduce annual

final energy demand (Art. 7)– 1.5% annually until 2020

– 0.8% annually until 2030

– Specific rules for HP

• New primary energy

factor: 2.1

• Comprehensive

Assessments on H&C due

by 31.12.2020 (Annex VIII)

energy efficiency

32.5

%

27

28

Reduction of CO2 emissionsHeat pumps are one of the lowest-emission technologies


CO2

50/55

%“I want Europe to become the first climate

neutral continent in the world by 2050. To make

this happen, we must take bold steps together ... .

A two-step approach is needed to reduce

CO2 emissions by 2030 by 50, if not 55%.“ President Ursula von der Leyen

28

29 Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020

30

Long term strategy (LTS) & European Green deal

for a decarbonised heating/cooling sector


Europe has approx. 115 - 120 million buildings

90 million single family residential

15 million multi-family residential

10 – 15 million commercial and office buildings

If heat pump reach a market penetration of 75% of all boilers...More than 86 million HP need to be manufactured and installed by 2050

2.9 million every year (2.5 times todays annual sales)

30

31

40% Boiler exchange

in ”high temperature heating

buildings”

technologytechnology

Technical potential of HP in the building stock

🡺 Is the technology only fit for purpose in new

builds?


20%

New

build

HP

ready

40%Boiler exchange

1:1

little/no renovation

HP ready

under conditionstechnology

32

Huge untapped potential for Heat

Pumps in all Europe applies likewise for

the Netherlands

Units sold per 1000 households in 2018


33

If Norway was everywhere ... annual sales

would be


• Potential of an increase in

sales by factor 8-10

• Is the value chain ready?

33

34

The glass ceiling

• Energy/price ratio

• Energy taxation

• No CO2-price signal

• Fossil fuel subsidies

• “We can’t electrify everything” argument

(+ debated role of H2 / eMethane)


35

Relative prices: electric power vs. gas:

residential


Relative prices: electric power

vs. gas in Europa

High factors

=High operative

costs for heat

pumps

35

➔

36

Relative prices: electric power vs. Gas:

industry


37

Question to the industry:

Are you prepared for growth?


RED I

EED, EPBD

Ecodesign CE4all

1,45m?

?

2020e 2021e

?

2022e

F-gas

EU Green Deal

2019e

38

HP challenge: What if Norway was everywhere? Is the HP value chain ready for a mass market?


Solutions for the renovation sector, multi-family buildings, industrial applications, district energy

Solutions for sector coupling and demand side flexibility

Manufacturing capacity and availability of components (including F-gas)?

Knowledgable planners, architects and installers?

Building codes?

Financing and business models

38

39

• Heat pump technologies are ready and recognized in legislation

• Their contribution to fight climate change is more and more understood

• Need for action (#Fridaysforfuture, Cities) is stressed by the public

• Market framework could be better to accelerate market deployment

• Industry ready?

Conclusions


40

A 100% renewable society is possible – by 2050

Heat pumps for the EU green deal | Thomas Nowak | EHPA | 29.1.2020http://hpc2.stage3.de/

40

41

The European Heat Pump Association AISBL


• EHPA is a Brussels based industry association which aims at promoting awareness and proper deployment of heat pump technology in the European market place for residential, commercial and industrial applications. EHPA provides technical and economic input to European, national and local authorities in legislative, regulatory and energy efficiency matters. All activities are aimed at overcoming market barriers and dissemination of information in order to speed up market development of heat pumps for heating, cooling and hot water production.

• EHPA coordinates a quality initiative including a Quality label for heat pumps and Certification standards for heat pump installers. The association compiles the annual heat pump statistics and organizes a number of events, among them an annual heat pump conference.

Contact:

Thomas Nowak

European Heat Pump Association phone: +32 24 00 10 17

Rue d’Arlon 63-67 | B-1040 Brussels mail [email protected]

http://www.ehpa.org

41

http://www.ehpa.org/

Documents

Heat pumps as key technologies for a decarbonised European ... · Is it a dehumidifier? Is it a hot water generator? Or is it a electric grid stabilizer? Heat pumps as key technologies