Heat pump market development in Europe - Eurammon · eurammon Symposium 2015 Heat pump market development in Europe Pascal Westring Schaffhausen, 25 th/26th June, 2015

eurammon Symposium 2015

Heat pump market development in Europe

Pascal Westring

Schaffhausen, 25th/26th June, 2015

Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 2 http://www.ehpa.org/market-data/

Full report available in

Summer 2015

2015

Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 3

data from 21 countries

HP stock per 1000 households:


methodology – counting reversible HP

Reversible Air/air HP

for heating for cooling

usage depends on climate


100% cold


9.5% warm


0% average


market growth rates 2006 - 2014


+14% +16% +37% -9%

+7.4% p.a.

9% +1% -7% +3%

EU 11 EU 12 EU 14 EU 14 EU 19 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21

market development 2005 – 2014 accumulated: 7.4 million units installed

EU 21

+3%


heat pump sales in Europe by energy source


split of heat pump sales 2010: by type

H-air/water: 14%

H-ground/water: 14%

Reversible air-air w/heating: 60%

Reversible other: 6%

Sanitary hot water: 4%

Exhaust air: 3%


split of heat pump sales 2014: by type

H-air/water: 20%

H-ground/water: 11%

Reversible air-air w/heating: 48%

Reversible other: 6%

Sanitary hot water: 14%

Exhaust air: 2%


heat pump sales 2014 by category


sanitary hot water heat pumps


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK

units > 20kW

units < 20kW

split of heat pump sales by capacity


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


units > 20kW

units < 20kW

split of heat pump sales by capacity

?


706 467 units (89%)

top 10 heat pump markets


market performance = sales per 1000 households


- actual sales 2014

market potentials if Sweden was everywhere

total: 4.9 mio

potential: 83 459 units per year


11 464 11 773 11 252 11 100 12 025 11 567

9 107 8 209 7 652 8 300 7 254

6 940

443 618 1 320

2 097 3 260 4 282

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sanitary hot water

H-ground/water

H-air/water

development of the Swiss HP market


market drivers


market drivers

economic climate gdp growth

construction sector new buildings, renovations

decision factors costs, marketing, incentives, ..

sales

polic

y


dwelling stock by energy used for space heating

1. 2. 3. 4.

source: Entranze


economic growth 2014 (gdp at market prices) - %

source: Eurostat


*Residential buildings, except residences for communities

source: Eurostat

growth of building permits 2014 - % change


sales & construction of new buildings

source: Eurostat, EHPA

annual growth

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

building permits (EU-27)

heat pump sales (EU-21)


price ratio: electricity / gas - 2014

2.5

source: Eurostat


price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered


energy prices influence market performance y-Axis: sales per 1k households x-Axis: price ratio (electricity vs. gas)


taxation as hidden subsidies for fossile fuels? example case: Germany

source: Eurostat, EHPA


heat pump benefits


RES calculation

•  (1) ERES = Qusable * (1 – 1/SPFHP category )

•  (2) Qusable = saleshp category * HHP * Prated, HP category

input heat pump

operating hours

capacity

efficiency SPF

electricity

ambient heat

output

RES

usable heat

of which is renewable:

kWh


2.90 1.29

3.18 0.77

10.43

1.13 0.77 1.23

4.52

24.10

0.08 0.12

9.75

0.07 1.65

4.84

0.81 1.31

13.59

0.07 1.83


renewable energy provided - TWh based on the stock 2014


final energy consumption in Croatia 2012:

69 TWh

renewable energy provided - TWh


1.98

0.72

2.06

0.49

6.90

0.67 0.43 0.70

2.76

13.03

0.05 0.08

5.54

0.05 1.21

2.56

0.54 0.75

9.21

0.04 1.04


primary energy savings - TWh based on the stock 2014


energy by German wind farms 2012

46 TWh

primary energy savings - TWh


0.76 0.33

0.82

0.20

2.71

0.29 0.20 0.32

1.17

6.13

0.02 0.03

2.49

0.02 0.44

1.23

0.21 0.34

3.55

0.02 0.47


greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt based on the stock 2014


CO2 emitted by Croatia 2010

21 Mt

greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt


employment 2014 in man-years: 42 124

Heat pump maunfacturing

36%

Component manufacturing

18%

Installing of HP and heat source

30%

Service and maintenance

16%

•  total employment is higher •  technology leadership is in Europe

Contact:

Pascal Westring EHPA

Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1000 Brussels Belgium

[email protected]

Documents

Heat pump market development in Europe - Eurammon · eurammon Symposium 2015 Heat pump market development in Europe Pascal Westring Schaffhausen, 25 th/26th June, 2015