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Health Assessment and Prognostics of Automotive Clutches Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu 1,2 , Steve Vandenplas 1 , Paul Sas 2 , and Hendrik Van Brussel 2 1 Flanders’ MECHATRONICS Technology Centre (FMTC), 3001 Heverlee, Belgium [email protected] [email protected] 2 Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Division PMA, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium [email protected] [email protected] ABSTRACT Despite critical components, very little attention has been paid for wet friction clutches in the monitoring and prog- nostics research field. This paper presents and discusses an overall methodology for assessing the health (performance) and predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of wet friction clutches. Three principle features extracted from relative ve- locity signal measured between the input and output shaft of the clutch, namely (i) the normalized engagement duration, (ii) the normalized Euclidean distance and (iii) the Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) distance are fused with a logistic re- gression technique into a single value called the health index. In logistic regression analysis, the output of the logistic model (i.e. the health index) is restricted between 0 and 1. Accord- ingly, the logistic model can guide the users to assess the state of a wet friction clutch either in healthy state (e.g. health in- dex value of (close to) 1) or in failed state (e.g. health index value of (close to) 0). In terms of prognostics, the logarithm of the odds-of-success g defined as g = log[h/(1 -h)], where h denotes the health index, is used as the predicted variable. Once a history data is sufficient for prediction, the weighted mean slope (WMS) method is implemented in this study to adaptively build a prognostics model and to predict the tra- jectory of g until it crosses a predetermined threshold. This way, the remaining useful life (RUL) of a clutch can be de- termined. Furthermore, an experimental verification of the proposed methodology has been performed on two history datasets obtained by performing accelerated life tests (ALTs) on two clutch packs with different friction materials but the same lubricant. The experimental results confirm that the pro- posed methodology is promising and has a potential to be im- plemented for real-life applications. As was expected, the es- timated RUL converges to the actual RUL and the uncertainty Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu et.al. This is an open-access article dis- tributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduc- tion in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. interval decreases over time that may indicate that the prog- nostics model improves as more evidence becomes available. 1. I NTRODUCTION Wet friction clutches are mechanical components enabling the power transmission from an input shaft (connected to engine) to an output shaft (connected to wheels), based on the friction occurring in lubricated contacting surfaces. The clutch is lubricated by an automatic transmission fluid (ATF) having a function as a cooling lubricant that cleans the con- tacting surfaces and gives smoother performance and longer life. However, the presence of the ATF in the clutch reduces the coefficient of friction (COF). In applications where high power is necessary, the clutch is therefore designed with mul- tiple friction and separator discs. This configuration is known as a multi-disc wet friction clutch as can be seen in Figure 1, in which the friction discs are typically mounted to the hub by splines, and the separator discs are mounted to the drum by lugs. Friction discs Separator discs Drum Hub Figure 1. Exploded view of a wet friction clutch. Today’s vehicles have become widely equipped with auto- matic transmission (AT) systems, where wet friction clutches 1

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Page 1: Health Assessment and Prognostics of Automotive Clutches · Health Assessment and Prognostics of Automotive Clutches Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu1,2, Steve Vandenplas1, Paul Sas2,

Health Assessment and Prognostics of Automotive Clutches

Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu1,2, Steve Vandenplas1, Paul Sas2, and Hendrik Van Brussel2

1 Flanders’ MECHATRONICS Technology Centre (FMTC), 3001 Heverlee, [email protected]

[email protected]

2 Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Department of MechanicalEngineering, Division PMA, 3001 Heverlee, [email protected]

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

Despite critical components, very little attention has beenpaid for wet friction clutches in the monitoring and prog-nostics research field. This paper presents and discusses anoverall methodology for assessing the health (performance)and predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of wet frictionclutches. Three principle features extracted from relative ve-locity signal measured between the input and output shaft ofthe clutch, namely (i) the normalized engagement duration,(ii) the normalized Euclidean distance and (iii) the SpectralAngle Mapper (SAM) distance are fused with a logistic re-gression technique into a single value called the health index.In logistic regression analysis, the output of the logisticmodel(i.e. the health index) is restricted between0 and1. Accord-ingly, the logistic model can guide the users to assess the stateof a wet friction clutch either in healthy state (e.g. health in-dex value of (close to) 1) or in failed state (e.g. health indexvalue of (close to) 0). In terms of prognostics, the logarithmof the odds-of-successg defined asg = log[h/(1−h)], whereh denotes the health index, is used as the predicted variable.Once a history data is sufficient for prediction, the weightedmean slope (WMS) method is implemented in this study toadaptively build a prognostics model and to predict the tra-jectory of g until it crosses a predetermined threshold. Thisway, the remaining useful life (RUL) of a clutch can be de-termined. Furthermore, an experimental verification of theproposed methodology has been performed on two historydatasets obtained by performing accelerated life tests (ALTs)on two clutch packs with different friction materials but thesame lubricant. The experimental results confirm that the pro-posed methodology is promising and has a potential to be im-plemented for real-life applications. As was expected, thees-timated RUL converges to the actual RUL and the uncertainty

Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu et.al. This is an open-access article dis-tributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 UnitedStates License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduc-tion in any medium, provided the original author and source arecredited.

interval decreases over time that may indicate that the prog-nostics model improves as more evidence becomes available.

1. INTRODUCTION

Wet friction clutches are mechanical components enablingthe power transmission from an input shaft (connected toengine) to an output shaft (connected to wheels), based onthe friction occurring in lubricated contacting surfaces.Theclutch is lubricated by an automatic transmission fluid (ATF)having a function as a cooling lubricant that cleans the con-tacting surfaces and gives smoother performance and longerlife. However, the presence of the ATF in the clutch reducesthe coefficient of friction (COF). In applications where highpower is necessary, the clutch is therefore designed with mul-tiple friction and separator discs. This configuration is knownas a multi-disc wet friction clutch as can be seen in Figure 1,in which the friction discs are typically mounted to the hubby splines, and the separator discs are mounted to the drumby lugs.

Friction discs

Separator discs

Drum

Hub

Figure 1. Exploded view of a wet friction clutch.

Today’s vehicles have become widely equipped with auto-matic transmission (AT) systems, where wet friction clutches

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are one of critical components that play a major role on thetransmission performance. In the beginning of its life, aclutch is designed to transmit certain power under a smoothand fast engagement with minimal shudder. But, due to theunavoidable degradation, the clutch frictional characteristicschange, thus altering its initial performance and consequentlyaffecting the performance of the vehicles. As the degrada-tion proceeds, failure can unexpectedly occur, which even-tually leads to the total breakdown of the vehicles. An un-expected breakdown can put human safety at risk, possiblycause long term vehicle down times, and result in high main-tenance costs. Hence, integration of a maintenance strategyinto AT systems can significantly increase safety and avail-ability/reliability as well as reduce the maintenance costofthe vehicles.

The maintenance strategy should be performed in an opti-mal way, in the sense that degrading clutches need to be re-placed with the new ones at theright time. Here, the righttime can be referred to as the “optimal” end of life of theclutch, at which the clutch is no longer functioning as itshould be. Notice that the end of the clutch lifetime doesnot necessarily mean the condition where the catastrophicfailure occurs. Regarding the optimal maintenance strategy,the information concerning the end of clutch lifetime (or re-maining useful clutch life) therefore becomes important as-pect in order to minimize the vehicles downtime. ConditionBased Maintenance (CBM), which is also known as Predic-tive Maintenance (PdM), is a right-on-time maintenance strat-egy which is driven by the actual condition of the criticalcomponent of systems. This concept requires technologiesand experts, in which all relevant information, such as per-formance data, maintenance histories, operator logs and de-sign data are combined to make optimal maintenance deci-sions (Mobley, 2002). In general, the key technologies for re-alizing the PdM strategy rely on three basic elements, namely(i) condition monitoring, (ii) diagnosticsand (iii) prognostics.PdM has been in use since 1980’s and successfully imple-mented in various applications, such as in oil platforms, man-ufacturing machines, wind turbines, automobiles, electronicsystems, (Basseville et al., 1993; Bansal, Evans, & Jones,2004; Garcia, Sanz-Bobi, & Pico, 2006; Srinivas, Murthy, &Yang, 2007; Bey-Temsamani, Engels, Motten, Vandenplas, &Ompusunggu, 2009b, 2009a).

Despite critical components, to authors’ knowledge, very lit-tle attention has been paid to wet friction clutches in thearea of PdM research. Several methods have been pro-posed in literature for assessing the condition of wet fric-tion clutches based on the quality of the friction mate-rial, namely (i) Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) mi-crograph, (ii) surface topography, (iii) Pressure DifferentialScanning Calorimetry (PDSC) and (iv) Attenuated Total Re-flectance Infrared spectroscopy (ATR-IR) (Jullien, Meurisse,& Berthier, 1996; Guan, Willermet, Carter, & Melotik., 1998;

Li et al., 2003; Maeda & Murakami, 2003; Nyman, Maki,Olsson, & Ganemi, 2006). Generally, the implementation ofthese existing methods is very time consuming and possiblynot pragmatic for real-life applications, owing to the factthatthe friction discs have to be taken out from the clutch packand then prepared for assessing the degradation level. In otherwords, an online monitoring and prognostics system can notbe realized by using these existing methods

As the central role of wet friction clutches relies on the fric-tion, a natural way to monitor and assess the condition ofthese components is by monitoring and quantifying the fric-tional characteristics. The use of the mean (averaged) coef-ficient of friction (COF) for a given duty cycle as a principlefeature for condition monitoring of wet friction clutches hasbeen popular for many years (Matsuo & Saeki, 1997; Ost,Baets, & Degrieck, 2001; Maeda & Murakami, 2003; Li etal., 2003; Fei, Li, Qi, Fu, & Li, 2008). However, this is nor-mally performed in laboratory tests, namely durability testsof clutch friction materials and ATF, where the used test setup(i.e. SAE#2 test setup) is fully instrumented. For real-life ap-plications, the use of the mean COF for clutch monitoring ispossibly expensive and not easily implementable, due to thefact thatat least two sensorsare required to extract it, namelya torque and a force sensor, which are commonly difficult toinstall (typically not available) in today’s transmissions.

Regarding clutch health assessment and prognostics, only afew publications were found in literature. Yanget al. (Yang,Twaddell, Chen, & Lam, 1997; Yang & Lam, 1998) devel-oped a physics-based prognostics model by considering thatthe degradation occurring in a clutch is only due to thermal ef-fect taking place in the friction materials. The model was de-veloped based on the cellulose fibers concentration, where thechange of the fibers concentration is assumed to be likenedto a simple chemical reaction. They found that, the ratiobetween the instantaneous concentration of cellulose fibersW and the initial concentration of cellulose fibersW0, i.e.weight loss ratioW

W0

, likely follows a zero-th order reactionin isothermal condition. The degradation rate constants areobtained by performing dedicated (separate) Thermal Gravi-metric Analysis (TGA) experiments on the friction materialsamples taken out from clutch packs at different interfacetemperatures. To predict the degradation level and RUL offriction material under dynamic engagement, the temperaturehistory of friction material as a function of time and axial lo-cations are of importance in this approach. Since the interfacetemperature of the friction material during a clutch engage-ment is difficult to measure, they (Yang, Lam, Chen, & Yabe,1995; Yang & Lam, 1998) developed a comprehensive anddetailed mathematical model to predict the temperature at theinterface, as well as the temperature distribution as a func-tion of time and different locations. Hence, the accuracy ofthe existing clutch prognostics method is strongly determinedby the accuracy of temperature prediction. Since the degra-

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dation mechanism occurring in the clutch friction materialisnot only due to thermal effect but also another major mech-anism namely adhesive wear (Gao, Barber, & Chu, 2002;Gao & Barber, 2002), the assumption made in this prognos-tics method is too oversimplified. When the complete designdata of a wet friction clutch is not available, this prognosticsmethod would be possibly difficult to implement.

Considering the above discussed literature survey, one mayconclude that the available clutch monitoring and prognosticsmethods are not pragmatic and flexible to implement for real-life applications. Nowadays, there is still a need for automo-tive industries (e.g.our industrial partner) to realize a clutchmonitoring and prognostics system which is easy to imple-ment and flexible to adapt. In addition to this, the develop-ment of such a system must be based on typically availablesensors in AT systems, such as rotational velocity, pressureand temperature sensors. Hence, research in this directionisstill of great interest.

Recently, some potential monitoring methods which canserve as bases for clutch prognostics have been investigatedand reported in previous publications. The preliminary eval-uations of a clutch monitoring method based on thepost-lockup torsional vibration are discussed in (Ompusunggu,Papy, Vandenplas, Sas, & VanBrussel, 2009; Ompusunggu,Sas, VanBrussel, Al-Bender, Papy, & Vandenplas, 2010).Since it is reasonable to assume that the ATF has no signifi-cant effect on the clutch post-lockup torsional vibration,thismethod is suitable to monitor only the clutch friction mate-rial degradation. A more complete description concerningthe feasibility and practical implementation of this methodwill be discussed in another communication. Furthermore, aclutch monitoring method based on thepre-lockuptorsionalvibration is evaluated in (Ompusunggu, Sas, VanBrussel, Al-Bender, & Vandenplas, 2010), where a high resolution ro-tational velocity sensor is required in order to capture thehigh frequency torsional vibration. Another clutch monitor-ing method based on tracking the change of the relative rota-tional velocity between the input and output shaft of a clutchis proposed in (Ompusunggu, Papy, Vandenplas, Sas, & Van-Brussel, 2012). Since the relative velocity can be seen as therepresentative of the clutch dynamic behavior during the en-gagement phase, which are strongly influenced by the com-bination of friction material and ATF, the latter method canbe used to monitor the global state of a clutch. Nevertheless,the prognostics aspect was not tackled yet in those publica-tions. An attempt to develop a systematic methodology forhealth assessment and prognostics of wet friction clutchesisthe main objective of this paper. For this purpose, the lat-ter condition monitoring method described in (Ompusungguet al., 2012) is extended in this paper towards a prognosticsmethodology.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. After in-

troducing the objective and motivation, the methodology pro-posed in this paper is presented and discussed in Section 2.To verify the proposed method, life data of some commer-cially available clutches obtained from accelerated life tests(ALTs) carried out on a fully instrumented SAE#2 test setupare employed. The details of the experimental aspects aredescribed in Section 3. The results obtained after applyingthe proposed method to the clutches’ life data are further pre-sented and discussed in Section 4. Finally, some conclusionsdrawn from the study that can be a basis for future work arepresented in Section 5.

2. METHODOLOGY

The overall methodology proposed in this paper is describedin the flowchart depicted in Figure 2. As can be seen in thefigure, the methodology consists of four steps. In the firststep, capturing the signal of interest from raw pressure andrelative velocity signals is discussed. In the second step,threeprimary features are computed once the signal of interest hasbeen captured, where the verification of the three features hasbeen addressed in another publication (Ompusunggu et al.,2012). In the third step, the features are fused into a singlevalue, namely health index, using a logistic regression tech-nique. The output of the logistic model is restricted between0 and 1 such that the health or performance of a wet frictionclutch can be easily assessed. Finally, the algorithm to pre-dict the remaining useful life (RUL) using the fused featuresas the predicted variable is presented and discussed. Sincethe knowledge of the evolution of the proposed features dur-ing clutches’ lifetime is still limited, a data-driven prognosticsapproach is investigated in this paper.

Preprocessing Input Signals: Captur-ing relative velocity signal of interest.

Feature Extraction: Computing prin-ciple features, namely normalized engage-ment duration τe, normalized Euclideandistance DE and SAM distance DSAM .

Performance Assessment: Fusing fea-tures (τe, DE and DSAM ) into a HealthIndex (HI) constrained between 0 and 1.

Prognostics: Predicting theremaining useful life (RUL).

Figure 2. Flow chart of the proposed methodology.

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2.1. Relevant Signals Measurement

Prior to computing principle features as will be discussed inthe next subsection, the raw signals obtained from measure-ments first need to be preprocessed. Figure 3 graphically il-lustrates the signal preprocessing step, namely the procedureto capture therelative velocity signal of interestbased ontwo raw measurement signals: (i) therelative rotational ve-locity and (ii)applied pressuresignals. In the following para-graphs, the procedure is briefly discussed.

Let the signal of interest be captured at a given (arbitrary)duty cycle with a predetermined time record lengthτ , andsuppose that the time record length is kept the same for allduty cycles. For the sake of consistency, the signal must becaptured at thesamereference time instant. It is reasonable toconsider that the time instant when the ATF pressure appliedto the clutch packp(t) starts to increase from zero valuetf asthe reference time, which can be mathematically formulatedas:

tf = min {∀t ∈ R : p(t) > 0} . (1)

While the applied pressure is increasing, contact is graduallyestablished between the separator and friction discs. As aresult, the transmitted torque increases that consequently re-duces the relative velocitynrel(t). Eventually, the clutch isfully engaged when the relative velocity reaches zero for thefirst time at the lockup time instanttl that can be formulatedin similar way to Equation (1) as:

tl = min {∀t ∈ R : nrel(t) = 0} . (2)

t [a.u.]

p[a

.u.]

nrel

[a.u

.]

pmax

nmax

0

0tf tl

τ

τe

Figure 3. A graphical illustration of how to capture the rela-tive velocity signal of interest. The upper and lower figuresrespectively denote the typical applied pressurep and the rawrelative velocity signalnrel. Note that a.u. is the abbreviationof arbitrary unit.

2.2. Feature Extraction

Formal definitions of the developed features (engagement du-ration, Euclidean distance and Spectral Angle Mapper dis-tance) and the mathematical expressions to compute them arediscussed in this subsection. The first two features are dimen-sional quantities while the third one is dimensionless. Thefirst two features are normalized such that they become di-mensionless quantities and are in the same order of magni-tude as of the third feature.

2.2.1. Engagement Duration

The engagement durationτe is referred to as the time inter-val between the lockup time instanttl and the reference timeinstanttf , as graphically illustrated in Figure 3. Once bothtime instantstf andtl have been determined, the engagementdurationτe can then be simply computed as follows:

τe = tl − tf . (3)

Without loss of generality,τe can be normalized with respectto the engagement duration measured at the initial condition(healthy state)τ re , according to the following equation:

τe =τe − τ re

τ re, (4)

whereτe denotes the dimensionless engagement duration.

2.2.2. Dissimilarity Measures

A dissimilarity measure is a metric that quantifies the dissim-ilarity between objects. For the sake of condition monitoring,the dissimilarity measure between an object that representsan arbitrary condition and the reference object that representsa healthy condition, can be treated as a feature. Thus, thedissimilarity measure between two identical objects is (closeto) zero; the dissimilarity measure between two non-identicalobjects on the other hand is not zero. Here, the object will bereferred to as the relative velocity signalnrel. Two dissimilar-ity measures, namely the Euclidean distance and the SpectralAngle Mapper (SAM) distance, are considered in this paperbecause of their computational simplicity (Kruse et al., 1993;Paclik & Duin, 2003).

The main motivation behind the dissimilarity approach is thatthe measured signals of interest are treated as vectors. LetX be aK dimensional vector,xi, i = 1, 2, . . . ,K, denotingthe discrete signal of the relative velocity measured in a nor-mal (healthy) condition andY be aK dimensional vector,yi, i = 1, 2, . . . ,K, denoting the discrete signal of the rela-tive velocity measured in an arbitrary condition. The vectorX representing a healthy condition is referred to as the “base-line”.

The dimensional Euclidean distanceDE between the vectors

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European Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, 2012

X andY is defined as:

DE (X,Y) =

K∑

i=1

(xi − yi)2. (5)

For convenience,DE can also be normalized in accordancewith the following equation:

DE (X,Y) =DE (X,Y)

x1

√K

, (6)

whereDE denotes the dimensionless Euclidean distance andx1 > 0 denotes the initial value of thebaseline.

By definition, the SAM distance is a measure of the angle be-tween two vectors and is therefore dimensionless. The SAMdistanceDSAM between the vectorsX andY is mathemati-cally expressed as:

DSAM (X,Y) = cos−1

∑Ki=1 xiyi

∑K

i=1 x2i

∑K

i=1 y2i

. (7)

Recall that the distance from an object to itself is zero andthat a distance is always non-negative.

2.3. Health Assessment

Health assessment constitutes a dichotomous problem,namely determining the state of of a unit (system) of interest(UOI) whether in healthy or failure state. Intuitively, healthcan be represented by a binary value,e.g. 0 or 1, where thiscategorical value may be seen as a health index. For healthassessment purposes, it is natural to assume that the healthin-dex of (close to) 1 represents a healthy state, while the healthindex of (close to) 0 represents a failure state. This formula-tion implies that the degradation occurring in a UOI is indi-cated by the progressive change of the health index from 1 to0. It should be noted that the health index is sometimes called“confidence value” in literature.

In practice, feature values are not necessarily restrictedbe-tween 0 and 1, which cannot allow a direct justification onthe health of a UOI. Despite reflecting the actual conditionof a UOI, principle features extracted from measurement datacannot be directly used to assess the health of the UOI unlesstherelative distancesto the corresponding values which rep-resent the end of life of the UOI (i.e. thresholds) are known.To this end, the feature values evolving from a healthy to fail-ure state need to be transformed to the health indices.

In this study, health assessment based on a logistic regres-sion technique is investigated. As will be shown later, logis-tic regression can be seen as a process with a two-fold objec-tive: (i) fusing multiple features (independent variables) intoa single value (i.e. health index) and (ii) restricting the healthindex between 0 and 1. As discussed in (Lemeshow & Hos-mer, 2000), logistic regression is appropriate technique for di-chotomous problems, where the predicted variable (i.e. health

index) must be greater than or equal to zero and less than orequal to one. Unlike linear regression which is inappropri-ate for dichotomous problems (Lemeshow & Hosmer, 2000),in logistic regression, only data representing healthy andfail-ure states are required to estimate the regression coefficients.Thus, a logistic regression technique is suitable to problemswith limited number of history data. Moreover, it has beenreported in the literature that logistic regression technique isa powerful tool for health assessment modeling of some sys-tems based on extracted high dimensional features (Yan, Koc,& Lee, 2004; Yan & Lee, 2005).

Let us consider a simplelogistic function P (F ) defined as:

P (F ) = h =1

1 + e−g(F)=

eg(F )

1 + eg(F ), (8)

whereF = {F1, F2, . . . , FL} denotes a set ofL extractedfeatures,h denotes the health index of an event (i.e. healthyor failure) given a set of featuresF andg(F ) is thelogit func-tion which is mathematically expressed as:

g(F ) = g = log

(

P (F )

1− P (F )

)

=L∑

i=0

βiFi, (9)

whereF0 = 1, βi denotes the logistic model parameters tobe identified andg denotes the logarithm of the “odds-of-success”. In a more compact way, Equation (9) can be rewrit-ten as:

g = βTF, (10)

withβ = [β0 β1 β2 . . . βL]

T

andF = [1 F1 F2 . . . FL]

T,

where the superscript T denotes a transpose operation.

Note that the logistic function expressed in Equation (8) canbe seen as a kind of probability function (cumulative distri-bution function) because it ranges between 1 (healthy) and 0(failure). In addition to this, the logit function expressed inEquation (10) constitutes a linear combination of featuresex-tracted from measurement dataF1, F2, . . . , FL. This impliesthat the logarithm of the odds-of-successg preserves the na-ture of features to be extracted from measurement signals.

Here, the main objective of the logistic regression is to iden-tify (L + 1) parametersβ in Equation (10) such that the lo-gistic model is readily implementable for the health assess-ment of a UOI. In this context, the parameter identification isnormally performed using the maximum-likelihood estima-tor, which entails finding the set of parameters for which theprobability of the observed data is maximal (Czepiel, n.d.).This is done off-line where two sets of features,Fhealth andFfailure respectively representing healthy and failure states,are used as training data.

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2.4. Prognostics Algorithm - Data Driven Approach

The prognostics algorithm proposed in this paper is based ona data-driven approach. The variable to be predicted is thelogarithm of the odds-of-successg. The main reason for thisconsideration is that this predicted variableg still preservesthe nature of features extracted from the measurements (thelinear combination of features). Basically, the algorithmcon-sists of four main steps, namely (i) determining the first timeinstant to start predictiont1p such that the history data avail-able att1p are sufficient, (ii) building a prognostics modelfrom the available data, (iii) predicting the trajectory ofthepredicted variableg to the future based on the built prog-nostics model and (iv) estimating the remaining useful life(RUL). When new data are available, the steps (ii) - (iv) areperformed and this procedure is periodically repeated until acertain time instant useful to do prediction. Thus, the prog-nostics model is updated once new data are provided and it isexpected that the model converges because more evidence ac-cumulates over time. These steps are discussed in more detailin the subsequent paragraphs.

In this paper,t1p is proposed as the time instant when thehealth indexh is equal to0.75. At this value (h = 0.75),theoretically, it is reasonable to assume that a UOI has passedabout25% of its total lifetime and the history data to builda prognostics model are practically available. In the domainof the predicted variableg, the aforementioned health indexh = 0.75 corresponds tog = 1.098.

The weighted mean slope (WMS) method proposed in (Bey-Temsamani et al., 2009b) is used in this paper to adaptivelybuild a prognostics model for given history data. This methodis easy to implement and based on a data-driven approachwhere the model to be built is updated periodically when newdata come in. In this method, all the local slopes of a timeseries are first computed. Afterwards, the slope at the end ofthe time series (i.e. at the arbitrary time instant to do pre-diction tp) is computed by summing up all the local slopesweighted by a certain function, where the weighting factor ofthe most recent data is the greatest. Letg = {g1, g2, . . . , gN}and t = {t1, t2, . . . , tN} be respectively the history of thelogarithm of the odds-of-success and the corresponding timesequence attp. The WMSbw at this particular time instanttpis calculated according to the following equation:

bw =N∑

n=2

ωnbn, (11)

withωn =

n∑N

n=2 n, (12)

andbn =

gn − gn−1

tn − tn−1{n = 2, 3, . . . , N} , (13)

wherebn andωn respectively denote the local slope and thecorresponding weighting factor. The standard deviationσb

of the WMS at time instanttp is calculated according to thefollowing equation:

σb =

N∑

n=2

ωn (bn − bw)2. (14)

For 95% confidence interval, the lower boundblowerw and

upper boundbupperw of the WMS can be calculated as fol-lows (Meeker & Escobar, 1998):

blowerw = bw − 1.96

σb√N − 1

, (15)

bupperw = bw + 1.96σb√N − 1

, (16)

As will be shown later in Section 4, the three features(DE , DSAM , τe) evolve linearly during the lifetime of thetested clutches. It is therefore reasonable to assume that thetrend of the predicted variableg is also linear since the natureof the features is preserved. Hence, the value of the predictedvariable at time instanttp + th, namelygtp+th , is given by:

gtp+th = gtp + bwth, (17)

wheregtp = gN .

Suppose that the failure threshold (RUL threshold)glimit isknown in advance. The expected RULr at an arbitrary timeinstanttp can be computed as:

r =glimit − gtp

bw. (18)

Based on the lower and upper bound of the WMS expressedin Equations (15) and (16), the uncertainty of prognostics (thelower bound∆rlower and the upper bound∆rupper of theRUL) can be estimated according to the following equations:

∆rlower = r − rlower, (19)

∆rupper = rupper − r, (20)

with

rlower =glimit − gtp

bupperw

, (21)

rupper =glimit − gtp

blowerw

. (22)

3. EXPERIMENT

Service life data of wet friction clutches are required for theevaluation of the developed health assessment and prognos-tics method. In order to obtain the clutch service life datain a reasonable period of time, the concept of an acceleratedlife test (ALT) is applied in this study. For this purpose, afully instrumented SAE#2 test setup designed and built byour industrial partner, Dana Spicer Off Highway Belgium,was made available. In this respect, an ALT can be real-ized by means of applying a higher mechanical energy to a

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tested clutch compared to the amount of energy transmittedby a clutch in normal operation. The energy level is normallyadjusted by changing the initial relative velocity and/or theinertia of input and output flywheels. In this study, the ALTswere conducted on different commercial wet friction clutchesusing the fully instrumented SAE#2 test setup. During thetests, all the clutches were lubricated with the same Auto-matic Transmission Fluid (ATF). The test setup and the ALTprocedure are discussed in the following subsections.

3.1. SAE#2 test setup

The SAE#2 test setup used in the experiments, as depicted inFigure 4, basically consists of three main systems, namely:driveline, control and measurement system. The drivelinecomprises several components: an AC motor for driving theinput shaft (1), an input velocity sensor (2), an input flywheel(3), a clutch pack (4), a torque sensor (5), output flywheel(6), an output velocity sensor (7), an AC motor for drivingthe output shaft (8), a hydraulic system (11-20) and a heat ex-changer (21) for cooling the outlet ATF. An integrated controland measurement system (22) is used for controlling the ATFpressure (both for lubrication and actuation) to the clutchandfor the initial velocity of both input and output flywheels aswell as for measuring all relevant dynamic signals.

(a)

M M

V/A

D/AA/D

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

PC

(b)

Figure 4. The SAE#2 test setup used in the study, (a) photo-graph and (b) scheme, courtesy of Dana Spicer Off HighwayBelgium.

3.2. Test specification

The general specification of the test scenario is given in Ta-ble 1. Two clutch packs with different lining materials of thefriction discs were tested. It should be noted that all the usedfriction discs, separator discs and ATF are commercial oneswhich can be found in the market. In all the tests, the inlettemperature and flow of the ATF were kept constant, see Ta-ble 1. Additionally, one can see in the table that the inertiaofthe input flywheel (drum-side) is lower than that of the outputflywheel (hub-side).

Number of clutch packs to be tested 2Number of friction discs in the clutch assembly 8Inner diameter of friction disc (di) [mm] 115Outer diameter of friction disc (do) [mm] 160ATF John Deere J20CLubrication flow [liter/minute] 18Inlet temperature of ATF [◦C] 85Output flywheel inertia [kgm2] 3.99Input flywheel inertia [kgm2] 3.38Sampling frequency [kHz] 1

Table 1. General test specification.

3.3. Test procedure

Before an ALT is carried out to a wet friction clutch, a run-intest (lower energy level) is first conducted for 100 duty cyclesin order to stabilize the contact surface. The run-in test pro-cedure is in principle the same as the ALT procedure, but theinitial relative rotational velocity of the run-in tests islowerthan that of the ALTs. Figure 5 illustrates a duty cycle of theALT that is carried out as follows. Initially, while both in-put flywheel (drum-side) and output flywheel (hub-side) arerotating at predefined respective speeds in opposite direction,the two motors are powered-off and the pressurized ATF issimultaneously applied to a clutch pack at time instanttf .The oil thus actuates the clutch piston, pushing the frictionand separator discs towards each other. This occurs duringthe filling phase between the time instanttf and ta. Whilethe applied pressure is increasing, contact is gradually estab-lished between the separator and friction discs which resultsin an increase of the transmitted torque on the one hand anda decrease of the relative velocity on the other hand. Finally,the clutch is completely engaged when the relative velocityreaches zero at the lockup time instanttl. As the inertia andthe respective initial speed of the output flywheel (hub-side)are higher than those of the input flywheel, aftertl, both fly-wheels rotate together in the same direction as the output fly-wheel, see Figure 5. In order to prepare for the forthcomingduty cycle, both driving motors are braked at the time instanttb, such that the driveline can stand still for a while.

The ALT procedure discussed above is continuously repeateduntil a given total number of duty cycles is attained. For thesake of time efficiency in measurement, all the ALTs are per-

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tltatf tbt [s]

Sca

led

units

(see

labe

ls)

−40

−20

0

20

40 ATF temperature/5 [◦C]Pressure [bar]

Drum velocity/100 [rpm]

Hub velocity/100 [rpm]

Torque/100 [Nm]

Figure 5. A representative duty cycle of wet friction clutches.Note that the transmitted torque drops to zero after the lockuptime instanttl because there is no external load applied duringthe test.

formed for 10000 duty cycles. The pressure applied to theclutches is kept constant during the tests and the ATF is con-tinuously filtered, such that it is reasonable to assume thattheused ATF has not degraded during the tests.

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 6 shows the optical images and the surface profile ofthe friction material before and after the ALT, taken fromthe first clutch pack. The images are captured using aZeissmicroscopeand the surface profiles are measured along thesliding direction using aTaylor Hobson Talysurf profilome-ter. It can be seen in the figure that the surface of the fric-tion material has become smooth and glossy and the clutch istherefore considered to have failed. The change of the colorand the surface topography of the friction material is knownas a result of the glazing phenomenon that is believed to becaused by a combination of adhesive wear and thermal degra-dation (Gao et al., 2002; Gao & Barber, 2002).

4.1. Capturing the Signal of Interest

Figure 7 shows 3D plots of the relative velocity signals of in-terest obtained from the first ALT (clutch pack#1) and secondALT (clutch pack#2). All the signals are captured at the samereference time instanttf with the same time record lengthτ of 2.5 s. As can be seen in the figure, the reference timeinstanttf is set to zero. Furthermore, it is evident from thefigure that the profile of the relative velocity signal deviatesfrom its initial profile, as the clutch degradation progresses(pointed out by the arrow). This deviation is indicated bytwo major patterns, namely (i) the changing shape and (ii)the shifting lockup time instanttl to the right hand-side withrespect to the reference time instanttf . This observation con-firms the experimental results reported in the literature (Fei etal., 2008).

−10

−20

−30

0

10

00 1 2 3 4 0.1x [mm]

z[µ

m]

φ(z)

(a)

−10

−20

−30

0

10

00 1 2 3 4 0.5x [mm]

z[µ

m]

φ(z)

(b)

Figure 6. Comparison of the friction material before and afterthe ALT of 10000 duty cycles. (a) optical image (left) and thecorresponding surface profile (right) of the friction materialbeforethe test, (b) optical image (left) and the correspond-ing surface profile (right) of the friction materialafter thetest. Note thatz denotes the displacement of the profilometerstylus in Z-axis (perpendicular to the surface),x denotes thedisplacement of the profilometer stylus in X-axis (along thesliding direction) andφ(z) denotes the probability distribu-tion function of the surface profile.

t [s]Ncycle [-]

nrel

[rpm

]

0

01

2

0

2500

5000

500010000

(a)

t [s]Ncycle [-]

nrel

[rpm

]

0

01

2

0

2500

5000

500010000

(b)

Figure 7. Evolution of the relative velocity signals of interestobtained from (a) thefirst ALT and (b) thesecondALT.

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4.2. Extracted Features

The features introduced in Section 2 are extracted from therelative velocity signal of interest as shown in Figure 7 basedon Equations (4), (6) and (7). Figure 8 shows the evolutionof the features in function of the clutches service life. It isremarkable to mention that the trends of all the features arelinearly increasing with relatively small variations.

τ e[-

]D

E[-

]D

SAM

[-]

Ncycle [-]

0

0

0

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.4

0 2500 5000 7500 10000

ALT1

ALT2

Figure 8. Evolution of the features obtained from the first andsecond ALT.

4.3. Logistic Model

In order to build a logistic model for clutch health assessment,a number of sets of the features,Fhealth =

{

τ ie, D

iE , D

iSAM

}

andFfailure ={

τ fe, D

fE , D

fSAM

}

, respectively representinghealthy and failure states are required. Note that the super-scripts i and f respectively denote the healthy and failure state.Table 2 lists the sets of features used for logistic regressionfor different observations on the features extracted from themeasurement data as shown in Figure 8. The health indexh assigned for the healthy and failure states are respectively0.95 and 0.05. It should be mentioned here that these two val-ues are heuristically derived since there are no enough historydata.

Using the training data listed in Table 2, the parameters ob-tained from the logistic regression can be written as:

β = [3.09 2.07 − 35.96 3.57]T.

Based on the identified parameters, the logistic model rep-resented as the health indexh in function of the clutch dutycyclesNcycle can be expressed in the following equation:

h(Ncycle) =eg(Ncycle)

1 + eg(Ncycle), (23)

with

g(Ncycle) = 3.09+ 2.07τe − 35.96DE +3.57DSAM . (24)

Figure 9 shows the evolution of the health indexh of the twotested clutches. As was expected, the health index decreasesprogressively during the service life of the clutches. Since theindex is restricted between 0 and 1, this figure can thus easethe users to justify the health status of the clutches. Whenthe index value is close to 1, one can directly justify that theclutches are healthy, while the index approaches 0, one caneasily justify that the clutches are going to fail.

h[-

]

Ncycle [-]0 2500 5000 7500 10000

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

ALT1ALT2

Figure 9. The health indexh evolution of both tested clutches.

4.4. Prognostics Performance

In this subsection, the performance of the proposed prognos-tics algorithm is demonstrated. Figure 10 shows the evolu-tion of the logarithm of the odds-of-successg which has beenspecified as the predicted variable. Wheng = 1.098 (i.e.crossing the upper horizontal line) the algorithm is triggeredfor the first time to build a prognostics model (at 3000th cy-cle) and the trajectory ofg indicated by the gray dashed line isconsecutively predicted until it crosses the predefined thresh-old (the lower horizontal line). The RUL thresholdglimit isset at the value of−2.197 which corresponds to the health

Observation τe DE DSAM

1 0 0 0Healthy 2 0.0033 0.0034 0.0051

state (h = 0.95) 3 0.017 0.0122 0.0174 0.0109 0.0069 0.0109

1 0.3 0.2 0.27Failure 2 0.32 0.22 0.29

state (h = 0.05) 3 0.3205 0.2186 0.29954 0.3593 0.2216 0.3062

Table 2. Sets of features used for logistic regression analysis

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index of 0.1. At this particular value (glimit = −2.197), itis reasonable to assume that the tested clutches have passedabout 90% of their expected total lifetime. For a compari-son, the prediction at 7000th cycle is also shown in the fig-ure. As can be seen, the predicted trajectory ofg at the lattercycle (shown by the solid black line) gets closer to the mea-surement data indicating that the model has been updated.

0

@3000th @7000th

RUL threshold

Ncycle [-]

g[-

]

Measurement

2500 5000 7500 10000

-4

0

4

Figure 10. Representative evolution of the logarithm of theodds-of-successg.

ActualEstimated

r[-

]

Ncycle [-]3000 6000 9000

0

4000

8000

(a)

ActualEstimated

r[-

]

Ncycle [-]3000 6000 9000

0

4000

8000

(b)

Figure 11. Comparison of the estimated and actual RULs of:(a) the first clutch pack and (b) the second clutch pack.

The RUL estimations of both clutches are depicted in Fig-ure 11. As can be seen in the figure, the error between theestimated RULs and the actual RULs, and the correspondinguncertainty interval are quite large in the beginning of thepre-diction because limited amount of data are available to build

the prognostics model. When more evidence becomes avail-able, it is evident from the figure that the estimated RULs tendto converge to the actual RULs and the uncertainties tend todecrease over time, implying that the prognostics model im-proves over time.

5. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK

In this paper, an attempt to develop a health (performance)assessment and prognostics methodology for wet frictionclutches has been presented and discussed. For health as-sessment purposes, all the extracted features are fused into asingle variable called the health indexh which is restrictedbetween 0 and 1, based on a logistic regression solved withthe maximum likelihood estimation technique. In this way,a logistic model can be built that allows a direct justificationon the health of wet friction clutches. In terms of prognos-tics, the logarithm of odds-of-success,i.e. log(h/(1− h))is assigned as the predicted variable. The weighted meanslope (WMS) method, which is simple and easy to imple-ment, is used to predict the trajectory of the predicted vari-able and consecutively to predict the remaining useful life(RUL) of clutches. The proposed methodology has been ex-perimentally evaluated on two commercially available clutchpacks with different friction materials. The experimentalre-sults confirm that the methodology proposed in this paper ispromising in aiding the development a maintenance strategyfor wet friction clutches.

The experiments carried out in this study were under con-trolled environment. More data will be collected in the fu-ture where some variations of loading, operational tempera-ture and applied pressure during the duty cycles are present.Furthermore, some prospective algorithms need to be evalu-ated in future work in order to determine the most optimalone, in regard to the accuracy, convergence rate and the prac-tical implementation.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

All the authors are grateful for the experimental support byDr. Mark Versteyhe of Dana Spicer Off Highway Belgium.

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NOMENCLATURE

t timeW instantaneous concentration of cellulose fibersW0 initial concentration of cellulose fibersnrel relative velocityp pressuretf reference time instanttl lockup time instantt1p time instant for first predictiontp arbitrary time instant for predictionτ time record lengthX vector denoting a discrete relative velocity signal

measured in an initial (healthy) conditionY vector denoting a discrete relative velocity signal

measured in an arbitrary conditionτe normalized engagement durationDE normalized Euclidean distanceDSAM normalized SAM distanceF a set of featuresh health indexg logarithm of the odds-of-successglimit RUL thresholdbn local slopeωn weighting factorbw weighted mean slopeσb weighted standard deviationr remaining useful life (RUL)Ncycle number of duty (engagement) cycles

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BIOGRAPHIES

Agusmian Partogi Ompusunggu is a project engineer atFlanders’ MECHATRONICS Technology Centre (FMTC),Belgium. His research focuses in condition monitoring,prognostics, vibration testing and analysis and tribology.He earned his bachelor degree in mechanical engineering(B.Eng) in 2004 from Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB),Indonesia and master degree in mechanical engineering(M.Eng) in 2006 from the same technological institute. He iscurrently pursuing his PhD degree in mechanical engineeringat Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (K.U.Leuven) Belgium.

Steve Vandenplasis a program leader at Flanders’ MECHA-TRONICS Technology Centre (FMTC), Belgium. Hereceived his Master’s Degree of Electrotechnical Engineerin1996 from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Belgium.In 2001, he received a PhD in Applied Science and startedto work as R&D Engineer at Agilent Technologies for oneyear. Thereafter, he decided to work as a PostdoctoralFellow at the K.U. Leuven in the Department of Metallurgyand Materials Engineering, in the research group materialperformance and non-destructive testing (NDT). He has beenworking at Flanders’ MECHATRONICS Technology Centre(FMTC) since 2005, where he is currently leading FMTC’sresearch program on “Monitoring and Diagnostics”. Hismain interests are on machine diagnostics and conditionbased maintenance (CBM).

Paul Sas is a full professor at the Department of Me-chanical Engineering of Katholieke Universiteit Leuven(K.U.Leuven), Belgium. He received his master and doctoraldegree in mechanical engineering from K.U.Leuven. Hisresearch interest comprise numerical and experimentaltechniques in vibro-acoustics, active noise and vibrationcontrol, noise control of machinery and vehicles, structuraldynamics and vehicle dynamics. He is currently leadingthe noise and vibration research group of the Department ofMechanical Engineering at K.U.Leuven.

Hendrik Van Brussel is an emeritus professor at the De-partment of Mechanical Engineering of Katholieke Univer-siteit Leuven (K.U.Leuven), Belgium. He was born at Ieper,Belgium on 24 October 1944, obtained the degree of Tech-nical Engineer in mechanical engineering from the HogerTechnisch Instituut in Ostend, Belgium in 1965 and an en-gineering degree in electrical engineering at M.Sc level fromK.U.Leuven. In 1971 he got his PhD degree in mechanicalengineering, also from K.U.Leuven. From 1971 until 1973he was establishing a Metal Industries Development Centerin Bandung, Indonesia and he was an associate professor atInstitut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), Indonesia. He was a pio-neer in robotics research in Europe and an active promoter of

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the mechatronics idea as a new paradigm in machine design.He has published more than 200 papers on different aspects ofrobotics, mechatronics and flexible automation. His researchinterests shifted towards holonic manufacturing systems andprecision engineering, including microrobotics. He is Fellowof SME and IEEE and in 1994 he received a honorary doctor

degree from the ’Politehnica’ University in Bucharest, Roma-nia and from RWTH, Aachen, Germany. He is also a Memberof the Royal Academy of Sciences, Literature and Fine Artsof Belgium and Active Member of CIRP (International Insti-tution for Production Engineering Research).

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