Health and Wellbeing in Ayrshire and Arran and Wellbeing... · 2020-01-22 · Health and wellbeing in Ayrshire and Arran Introduction to second volume In the first volume1 of this

Health and Wellbeing in

Ayrshire and Arran

Volume 2: Longitudinal Trends

Local population health trends across time based on

ScotPHO profile data, September 2019

September

2019

AUTHOR:

Alister Hooke

Health and Wellbeing in

Ayrshire and Arran

Volume 2: Longitudinal Trends

Public Health Department

NHS Ayrshire & Arran

Version no: FINAL REPORT

Prepared by: Dr. Alister Hooke,

Senior Public Health Research Officer

Effective from: September 2019

Lead reviewers: Dr. Lynne Hamilton,

Consultant in Public Health Medicine

Marlene McMillan, Public Health Programme Lead

CONTENTS

SECTION HEADING PAGE

Introduction to second volume 1

A Life expectancy and mortality 2

B Ill health and injury 4

C Mental health 6

D Behaviours which impact on health 8

E Women’s and children’s health 11

F Immunisations and screenings 14

G Social care 16

H Education 18

I Crime 20

J Economy 23

K Environment 25

L Overview of trends 27

Health and wellbeing: DATA TABLES 28

1 | P a g e

Health and wellbeing in Ayrshire and Arran

Introduction to second volume

In the first volume1 of this series, data drawn from online ScotPHO area profiles were used to

build a cross-sectional picture of the current health status of Ayrshire and Arran. A wide-

ranging depiction of population health was compiled using the most up-to-date data available

across a selection of key indicators. Comparisons were made with other HSCP areas in

Scotland and also with Scotland as a whole. This second volume examines the historic health

trends of the local population. The aim is to broaden understanding of the health and

wellbeing status of the local population, to determine what if any critical changes have

occurred over time, and to ascertain where trends may be heading in future. This in turn will

inform where local health improvement efforts or service responses may need to be directed

or strengthened in future. More broadly, this report is intended to support all partner

organisations involved in improving population health.

The term EASR appearing in this report denotes, for any measure of population health, the

European age-sex standardised rate per 100,000 population (using ESP2013). This takes the

relevant measure, e.g., number of patients hospitalised with asthma, and transforms the

measure into a rate allowing comparison of data across time (as well as across geographical

areas). This is because the volume of any local population is in constant flux over time as a

result of year-on-year variations in rates of birth, death, and population flow in and out of an

area. To allow proper comparison over time, progressive changes in population size need to

be accommodated so that we can be confident that observed changes in data (up or down)

are not stemming from changes in population size but from changes in the pattern of

population health itself, e.g., real increase in prevalence of asthma leading to corresponding

increase in rate of patients hospitalised with that condition.

To maintain consistency in reporting, the structure of the present volume follows that of the

previous one, with data organised under the same headings. This will allow cross-referencing

of reports for those who wish to focus on a particular topic (or set of topics), or more broadly

draw a more complete picture, both cross-sectional and longitudinal, of local population

health.

1 Available on request via e-mail correspondence to: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

2 | P a g e

A. Life expectancy and mortality

3-year rolling interval data (calendar years)

Analysis of 3-year rolling interval data showed that, from 2001 to 2016, male and female life

expectancy (LE) increased substantially overall in Ayrshire and Arran and Scotland (Figure 1).

Within this general trend, a number of specific details were found:

Female LE: In 2001-03 [2002 midpoint], female LE ranged from 78-79 years. Figures

rose after that, peaking in 2010-12 [2011] at 80-81 years and levelling off after that in

all three local areas, with the Scottish figure also flattening after 2012-14 [2013].

Male LE: In 2001-03 [2002], male LE ranged from 73-74 years. Local and national

figures rose quite steeply after that, peaking in 2012-14 [2013] at 76-78 years and

levelling off since then in all areas.

Gender comparison: From 2001 to 2016, male LE rose faster than female LE, with an

overall increase of 3-4 years for males compared to only 2 years for females. As such,

the LE gap has narrowed between males and females, from a 5-6 year gap in the

baseline period 2001-03 to a 3-4 year gap in the most recent period 2014-16.

Area comparison: Among women, South maintained highest female LE over the

relevant period, with East lowest and North in between. South males also ranked

highest among local men, while men in North and East generated similar and

comparatively lower LE figures which were consistently under the Scottish average.

FIGURE 1: Life expectancy in years, 2001 to 2016: by gender and geographical area

Source: https://www.scotpho.org.uk

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Midpoint year (3-year rolling interval)

Females: Scotland

Females: South Ayrshire

Females: North Ayrshire

Females: East Ayrshire

Males: Scotland

Males: South Ayrshire

Males: North Ayrshire

Males: East Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES A1 AND A2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 28 of report)

LIFE EXPECTANCY:

https://www.scotpho.org.uk/comparative-health/profiles/online-profiles-tool

3 | P a g e


From 2002 to 2017, rates of death from all causes (all ages) reduced locally and nationally

(Figure 2). Within this overarching trend, steady and somewhat parallel declines in area

mortality rates were observed from 2002-04 [2003 midpoint] to 2010-12 [2011], before

levelling off after that. In 2002-04 [2003], local and national data ranged from around 1,400-

1,600 per 100,000 population, falling to around 1,100-1,300 per 100,000 over the period from

2010-12 [2011] to 2015-17 [2016], demonstrating a substantial drop over time of around 300

deaths per 100,000 in all areas.

Within this shared pattern of decline in rates, differences between areas were evident. In

particular, East rates consistently ranked highest over the relevant period, with South lowest

and North in between. At all time points, rates in South were lower than Scottish rates, and

rates in East and North were conversely above the national average.

It is also worth noting that death rates and life expectancy figures levelled off around the

same time, with the former reaching a floor and the latter a ceiling at or shortly after 2011.

This may indicate a potentially close and inverse relationship between the two sets of data,

with improvements in respective figures concurrently plateauing. The levelling of data after

2011 may signify some adverse and slightly time-lagged impact on population health arising

from economic recession which began in 2008.

FIGURE 2: Deaths all causes (all ages), 2002 to 2017: EASR per 100,000 population,

3-year rolling average by geographical area


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

MORTALITY:


4 | P a g e

B. Ill health and injury

3-year rolling interval data (financial years)

From 2002/03 to 2017/18, patient hospitalisation trends for COPD and asthma were strikingly

different, with the former highly variable compared to the latter (Figure 3). Detailed analysis

revealed that: COPD: Hospitalisation rates for COPD grew from 2002/03-04/05 [2003/04 midpoint]

to 2010/11-12/13 [2011/12], with steeper increases occurring in North and East than

in South or Scotland. And while rates have flattened since 2010/11-12/13 [2011/12]

in East and North (and Scotland), rates have continued to rise in South. Local rates

increased by 90-100 hospitalisations per 100,000 over the whole period, while the

Scottish rate only rose by around 20 per 100,000. All local rates are now significantly

above the national average and the gap between areas has widened, with East rates

elevated above the rest, historically and currently.

Asthma: Compared to COPD, asthma figures were fairly level across time. East and

South hospitalisation rates fluctuated around 100 per 100,000 for most of the period,

though lately the East figure has risen to just over 125 per 100,000. Rates in North

have been consistently higher than in East, South and Scotland. The North rate peaked

in 2012/13-14/15 [2013/14] to over 130 per 100,000 where the figure has remained

much on a level since then. Scottish figures fell slightly over the whole period.

FIGURE 3: Patients hospitalised with respiratory problems, 2002/03 to 2017/18:

EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average by condition and area


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400


COPD: Scotland

COPD: East Ayrshire

COPD: North Ayrshire

COPD: South Ayrshire

Asthma: Scotland

Asthma: East Ayrshire

Asthma: North Ayrshire

Asthma: South Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES B1 AND B2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 29 of report)

RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS:


5 | P a g e


From 2011 to 2017, the rate of patients with emergency hospitalisations in Ayrshire and Arran

far exceeded equivalent national figures. Detailed analysis revealed the following:

Patients (all ages) with emergency hospitalisations: While emergency hospitalisation

rates in Scotland were flat from 2011 to 2017 at around 7,500 per 100,000 population,

local rates were not only in excess of the national average, they also increased over

this short space of time (Figure 4a). Rates in South increased faster over this period

than elsewhere. Local increases show no sign of slowing down in future and this will

impact on services. Due to the steeper incline in South, the gap between the three

local areas closed, with local rates now ranging between 9,500 and 10,000 per

100,000. Rates in North remained highest over time.

Patients aged 65+ with multiple emergency hospitalisations: Similarities were found

in trends for multiple emergency hospitalisations among patients aged 65+, including:

(1) flat national trend; (2) relatively elevated and increasing rates in all local areas;

(3) faster increase in South; and (4) closing of gap between local areas (Figure 4b). The

national rate has been relatively stable around 5,500 per 100,000. In the most recent

period 2015-17 [2016 midpoint], local rates ranged between 6,000 and 6,500 per

100,000. Rates in East remained highest over the relevant period.

FIGURE 4a: Patients with emergency hospitalisations: FIGURE 4b: Patients aged 65+ with multiple EASR per 100,000, 3-year rolling average emergency hospitalisations: EASR per 100,000, 3-year rolling average


0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

100001050011000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500

100001050011000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Scotland East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire South Ayrshire

EMERGENCY HOSPITALISATION:


6 | P a g e

C. Mental health

Single year data (financial years)

From 2010/11 to 2017/18, the percentage of people in Ayrshire and Arran and Scotland

prescribed drugs for mental health problems (anxiety/depression/psychosis) increased

substantially, with increases over this 7-year period being fairly linear both locally and

nationally (Figure 5). In 2010/11, area percentages ranged from 15-17%, shifting upward to

19-21% in 2017/18. Increases over time were around 4% in East, South and Scotland. North

figures rose a little more steeply, however, increasing by around 5%. Over the whole period,

national figures were lowest and South Ayrshire figures highest. East and North figures were

in between, though North figures have now caught up with the high levels reported in South.

Looking ahead, the elevating trends show no sign of slowing down locally or nationally.

FIGURE 5: Population prescribed drugs for anxiety/depression/psychosis, 2010/11 to

2017/18: percentage by geographical area


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES C1 AND C2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 30 of report)

PRESCRIBING FOR MENTAL HEALTH:


7 | P a g e


Analysis of 3-year rolling interval data revealed that, from 2002/03 to 2017/18, local and

national rates of patients recorded with a psychiatric hospitalisation dropped markedly

(Figure 6). In 2002/03-04/05 [2003/04 midpoint], South and East rates were higher than

elsewhere, but differential declines in rates after that time resulted in convergence of area

data in 2008/09-10/11 [2009/10]; in particular, area rates ranged quite broadly from about

350 to 425 per 100,000 in 2002/03-04/05 [2003/04] but ranged narrowly from about 300 to

325 per 100,000 in 2008/09-10/11 [2009/10]. After converging in 2008/09-10/11 [2009/10],

rates continued to fall steadily and commensurately in Scotland, North and South Ayrshire,

with rates in these areas ranging narrowly from about 250 to 275 per 100,000 in the recent

period 2015/16-17/18 [2016/17]. In contrast, the pattern in East broke away from the rest,

with rates dropping sharply from 2008/09-10/11 [2009/10] to 2012/13-14/15 [2013/14],

before abruptly levelling off around 200 per 100,000 where the rate has remained since, well

below the reports of other areas.

These trends are unlikely to reflect prevalence of mental health problems in the respective

populations, and indeed contradict the findings reported for prescribing (see Figure 5 above).

They are likely influenced by enduring change in delivery of psychiatric healthcare in Scotland,

with the balance of care continuing to shift from hospital to community.

FIGURE 6: Patients with a psychiatric hospitalisation, 2002/03 to 2017/18: EASR per

100,000 population, 3-year rolling average by geographical area


0255075

100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITALISATION:


8 | P a g e

D. Behaviours which impact on health

Single year data (calendar years)

From 2012 to 2017, smoking prevalence mostly declined locally and nationally (Figure 7). The

rate of decline in Scotland was steady and linear, dropping by 6% from 24% in 2012 to 18% in

2017. A larger drop of 9% was observed in East Ayrshire where prevalence decreased from

28% in 2012 to 19% in 2017, with East reports remaining above the Scottish average. In North,

rates fell overall by 6% from 28% in 2012 to 22% in 2017, despite the pattern of decline being

interrupted by an upward spike in 2016. The South trend was exceptional, showing no overall

change in adult smoking prevalence due to an unusually low baseline report of 15% in 2012,

which rose sharply to 22% in 2013 before returning to the baseline figure of 15% in 2017, with

South reports consistently under the Scottish average over the relevant period.

Overall, these figures reflect a continuing trend of decline in rates of tobacco smoking among

Scottish adults which was precipitated in large part and reinforced by the national ban on

smoking in public places, plain retail packaging, increased taxation on tobacco products, etc.

Moreover, trends look set to continue declining for the foreseeable future, with the steady

decline in national figures, in particular, showing no sign at present of slowing down.

FIGURE 7: Smoking prevalence among adults (aged 16+), 2012 to 2017: percentage of

adult population who are smokers by geographical area


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES D1, D2 AND D3 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 31 of report)

SMOKING PREVALENCE (ADULTS 16+):


9 | P a g e


From 2002/03 to 2017/18, rates of alcohol-related hospital stays fell substantially in all areas,

with marked declines evident during an 8-year period from 2007/08 to 2015/16 (Figure 8).

During the earlier period from 2002/03 to 2007/08, local and national rates mostly increased,

South Ayrshire excepted. In 2007/08, the rate peaked in Scotland before falling by 200 per

100,000 to the lowest report in 2015/16. North and East rates also peaked in 2007/08 and

then fell even more sharply to their lowest points in 2015/16 – the observed declines were

twice the national equivalent, amounting to decreases of 360 and 420 per 100,000 in North

and East respectively. South rates peaked earlier in 2003/04, then fell by around 300 per

100,000 to a low point in 2015/16, again well exceeding the national decrease. Since 2015/16,

rates have pretty much stabilised, though small inclines occurred recently in North and South.

As a consequence of steeper decreases over time in local figures, area reports have essentially

narrowed. Indeed, East and South Ayrshire figures have recently converged with national

figures despite starting at much higher baseline levels in 2002/03, though North figures

remain notably elevated above those of all other areas.

FIGURE 8: Alcohol-related hospital stays, 2002/03 to 2017/18: EASR per 100,000

population by geographical area


050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

10001050110011501200125013001350

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

ALCOHOL-RELATED HOSPITAL STAYS:


10 | P a g e


From 2002/03 to 2017/18, rates of drug-related hospital stays increased notably in all areas,

with more marked increases seen in North and East than in South and Scotland (Figure 9).

From 2002/03-04/05 [2003/04 midpoint] to 2012/13-14/15 [2013/14], rates in Scotland, East

and North Ayrshire increased while rates in South fluctuated fairly steadily around 160 per

100,000. However, a turning point in the trends was apparent in 2012/13-14/15 [2013/14],

after which local and national rates began to climb sharply, including in South Ayrshire where

the trend had previously been quite flat. As a result of this recent sharp climb in the data,

overall 15-year changes in rates amounted to an increase of 190 per 100,000 in North, 140

per 100,000 in East, 90 per 100,000 in South and 80 per 100,000 in Scotland as a whole. Local

increases were therefore, in relation to the national comparator, more than double in North,

over one and a half times in East, and marginally greater in South. The recent increases in all

areas merit further investigation. Moreover, the disparity between local and national rates

appears set to widen in future, also warranting attention.

FIGURE 9: Drug-related hospital stays, 2002/03 to 2017/18: EASR per 100,000

population, 3-year rolling average by geographical area


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

DRUG-RELATED HOSPITAL STAYS:


11 | P a g e

E. Women’s and children’s health


From 2003/04 to 2017/18, trends for women smoking during pregnancy showed marked

declines in all areas (Figure 10). The national decline has been fairly persistent, year on year,

falling by around 9% over 14 years. Local rates also dropped by 8-10% over the same period,

showing commensurate decreases in line with the national decrease. However, local rates

have been consistently above the national rate at every time point, with North rates highest,

South rates lowest and East rates in between. East and North rates have been significantly in

excess of the national average throughout the relevant period.

These trends are clearly reflective of wider trends relating to adult smoking, where declines

in local and national figures were also evident (see Figure 7 above). A noteworthy difference

between trends for adult smoking and women smoking during pregnancy relates to the fact

that reports of pregnant women in South routinely exceeded the national average, while

reports of adult smoking in South routinely fell short of the national average. Closer

examination showed that, in the current period 2015/16-17/18 [2016/17 midpoint], pregnant

women in South Ayrshire reported rates of smoking no different from the South general

population (17%). This contrasts with all other areas (East, North and Scotland) where

pregnant women’s reports of smoking fell below that of the general population by 3-5%.

FIGURE 10: Women smoking during pregnancy, 2003/04 to 2017/18: percentage,

3-year rolling average by geographical area


02468

10121416182022242628303234363840


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES E1, E2 AND E3 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 32 of report)

WOMEN SMOKING DURING PREGNANCY:


12 | P a g e


From 2002/03 to 2017/18, the percentage of babies exclusively breastfed, as recorded at the

6-8 week postnatal review, increased nationally while decreased locally in all HSCP areas

(Figure 11). In Scotland, there was a modest 3% increase over time due to an incline in the

national figures which began in 2011/12-13/14 [2012/13 midpoint] and has picked up pace

recently during the current period 2015/16-17/18 [2016/17]. In contrast, local figures fell by

4-8% over the 15-year period, with the greatest decline observed in East; the percentage

decreases were 8% in East, 5% in South and 4% in North. Thus while gains appear to have

happened nationally, they have not happened locally. Local declines look set to continue in

the near future, and if Scottish figures should continue to rise then the gap between local and

national rates will continue to widen.

FIGURE 11: Babies exclusively breastfed at 6-8 week review, 2002/03 to 2017/18:

percentage, 3-year rolling average by geographical area


0123456789

1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

BREASTFEEDING AT 6-8 WEEK REVIEW:


13 | P a g e


From 2012/13 to 2017/18, dental health reports relating to children in primary 7 (age 10-11)

showed marked increase in percentage of children reported with no obvious decay in

Scotland and Ayrshire and Arran (Figure 12). The main bulk of improvement occurred in all

geographical areas between 2014/15 and 2015/16, with a substantial hike of 16% in the

national report and even greater hikes of 20-28% in local reports. This pattern of increase has

been sudden, raising questions concerning potential factors underlying such sizeable and

abrupt changes in local and national trends. Meanwhile, trends look to have stabilised in the

last three years, though reports in East Ayrshire appear to have dropped away somewhat and

may continue to do so in future.

FIGURE 12: Child dental health checks in P7, 2012/13 to 2017/18: percentage of

children with no obvious decay by geographical area


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

87

90

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

CHILD DENTAL HEALTH IN P7:


14 | P a g e

F. Immunisations and screenings


From 2004 to 2018, the rate of uptake of immunisation for MMR (measles, mumps and

rubella) at 24 months increased substantially in Scotland and Ayrshire and Arran (Figure 13).

There was a strong systematic rise in rates over eight years from 2004-06 [2005 midpoint] to

2012-14 [2013], after which immunisation rates largely flattened in all areas. In 2004-06

[2005], area rates ranged between 90-92%, elevating to between 95-98% in 2012-14 [2013]

where rates have generally remained since then. The overall 14-year increase in area rates

ranged from 4 to 7%, with the greatest increase (improvement) being seen in East Ayrshire,

which currently reports the highest rate followed closely by South Ayrshire. Scotland and

North Ayrshire reports were relatively commensurate and notably lower (by about 2%) than

the reports of the other two areas during the recent period.

FIGURE 13: Immunisation uptake of MMR at 24 months, 2004 to 2018: percentage of

children this age, 3-year rolling average by geographical area


85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

UPTAKE OF MMR AT 24 MONTHS:

SEE DATA TABLES F1 AND F2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 33 of report)


15 | P a g e


From 2008 to 2017, the rate of bowel screening uptake among adults aged 50-74 years old

increased overall in Scotland and Ayrshire and Arran, though rates have been falling in the

recent period (Figure 14). There were strong increases in area rates initially from the period

extending from 2008-10 [2009 midpoint] to 2013-15 [2014], at which time rates peaked in all

areas; specifically, rates ranged from 51-56% in 2008-10 [2009] and rose steadily to 56-60%

in 2013-15 [2014]. However, rates began dropping after that so that area rates ranged

between 54-59% in the most recent period 2015-17 [2016], still above the baseline reports in

2008-10 [2009]. The rankings of area reports have been perfectly consistent at all time points,

with South rates well above the national average, and rates in North and East fairly

commensurate and below the national average. Projecting forward, it looks as though rates

may be set to continue falling for the foreseeable future, locally and nationally.

FIGURE 14: Bowel screening uptake, 2008 to 2017: percentage of all eligible men and

women invited (aged 50-74), 3-year rolling average by geographical area


45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

BOWEL SCREENING UPTAKE:


16 | P a g e

G. Social care


From 2011 to 2017, the rate of children looked after by local authority, among children aged

0-18 years old, decreased in Scotland and East Ayrshire, while increased in North and South

Ayrshire (Figure 15). The decrease in Scotland as a whole was fairly steady and gradual,

dropping from around 16 to 14 per 1,000 over 7 years. The decrease in East Ayrshire began

in 2013, dropping more steeply than the national rate from around 22 to 16 per 1,000 since

that time. The increase in South was modest, from around 16 to 18 per 1,000, and even more

modest in North, from around 21 to 22 per 1,000. However, it is noted that the North rate

has been progressively falling since peaking in 2015 (at 24 per 1,000), and the South rate also

fell slightly from 2016 to 2017. In terms of ranking, North rates have remained well above

Scottish rates throughout the relevant period, with East and South rates in between. Looking

ahead, the national rate appears likely to continue falling at the gradual pace observed over

the last 7 years. And recent declines in rates in all three local areas suggest that local rates

may also end up declining in line with the national trend.

FIGURE 15: Children looked after by local authority, 2011 to 2017: crude rate per 1,000

children aged 0 to 18 years old by geographical area


0123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

CHILDREN LOOKED AFTER:

SEE DATA TABLES G1 AND G2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 34 of report)


17 | P a g e


From 2006 to 2017, the percentage of people aged 65 or more with high levels of care needs

who are cared for at home2 steadily increased in Scotland, marginally increased overall in

North Ayrshire, and decreased overall in East and South Ayrshire (Figure 16). The national

increase was consistent and rather linear, increasing by 6% over 11 years from 29% to 35%.

On the other hand, local data showed no clear trend, likely due to small number variation.

While the rate in North increased overall by 6% in 11 years (from 25% in 2006 to 31% in 2017),

the trend was predominantly upward from 2006 to 2015 (peaking at 40% in 2015) but has

fallen sharply since then to the current period. An overall decline of 4% was observed in South

(from 40% in 2006 to 36% in 2017), mainly accounted for by a sizeable dip in the figures from

2011 to 2012 with the trend somewhat on a level since then. In East, the decrease was more

pronounced, falling 12% over 11 years (from 42% in 2006 to 30% in 2017), mainly accounted

for by a sharp decline in rates from 2009 to 2011 with the trend levelling off in the last 5 years.

FIGURE 16: People aged 65+ with high levels of care needs who are cared for at home,

2006 to 2017: percentage by geographical area


2 People 65+ with high levels of care needs are defined as those who are: (1) receiving 10+ hours of home care

purchased or provided by a local authority; (2) resident in a care home; or (3) resident long-term in NHS hospital.

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

PEOPLE 65+ WITH CARE NEEDS:


18 | P a g e

H. Education


From 2009/10 to 2015/16, percentages of school leavers with one or more qualification at

SCQF3 Level 6 increased in quite parallel fashion in all areas, locally and nationally (Figure 17).

The 6-year increases ranged somewhat consistently and narrowly from 9% in East to 14% in

North Ayrshire. In 2009/10 the range was from 45-55% across all areas, shifting up by around

10 percentage points to a range of 55-65% in the latest period. Thus, overall, there appears

to have been marked improvement across the board in school leaver qualification at this level.

In 2015/16, South gave the highest report and has remained in a relatively higher position

over time compared to other areas. The recent report in East was lowest, with North’s report

marginally exceeding that of East due to more rapid incline in the North data (especially since

2013/14). However, all areas have improved substantially.

FIGURE 17: School leavers with one or more qualification at SCQF Level 6, 2009/10 to

2015/16: percentage by geographical area


3 Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework

0369

12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SCHOOL LEAVER QUALIFICATIONS (1):

SEE DATA TABLES H1 AND H2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 35 of report)


19 | P a g e


From 2009/10 to 2017/18, the percentage of school leavers living in the most deprived

quintile with one or more qualification at SCQF Level 6 increased substantially and

proportionately across all areas, locally and nationally (Figure 18). In 2009/10, area rates for

this demographic ranged narrowly from 24-29%, increasing universally thereafter with

reported rates markedly higher and more narrowly ranging from 43-46% in 2017/18. This is

a substantial growth of around 20 percentage points in all areas.

Comparing increases among leavers living in the most deprived areas with those for all leavers

– that is, comparing changes in rates over the 6-year interval from 2009/10 to 2015/16 (more

recent data is not yet available on ScotPHO for all leavers) – the scale of increase was

practically equivalent between the two groups in East and North Ayrshire. However, in South

Ayrshire and Scotland as a whole, the increases were four percentage points higher in the

deprived group compared to all leavers, signifying improvement (i.e., narrowing of the

inequalities gap) in those two areas.

FIGURE 18: School leavers living in the most deprived quintile with one or more

qualification at SCQF Level 6, 2009/10 to 2017/18: percentage by

geographical area


0369

12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SCHOOL LEAVER QUALIFICATIONS (2):


20 | P a g e

I. Crime


From 2004 to 2017, reported rates of crime in Scotland and Ayrshire and Arran fell in a highly

structured way (Figure 19). Patterns of decline in rates were concurrently stepwise across

areas, though subtle variations in pace of decline have resulted in the gap between areas

narrowing in the recent period, 2014-17. Abrupt drops in recorded crime rates occurred in

2007, 2010 and 2014, with the latter year generating the steepest observed drop in all areas.

As a result, reported rates fell substantially over the 13-year period by 18 per 1,000

population in South and 25 per 1,000 in North Ayrshire, with decreases in Scotland and East

Ayrshire somewhere in between. However, the highly systematic and somewhat angular

nature of changes in the historic data raises a question as to whether or not these trends are

reflecting artefacts of the crime data recording process rather than prevalence of crime itself.

In absence of a definitive answer to this question, it cannot be asserted with confidence that

crime itself is decreasing in Scotland.

FIGURE 19: Crime rates (based on violence, sexual offences, domestic housebreaking,

vandalism, drug offences and common assault), 2004 to 2017: crude rate

per 1,000 population by geographical area


0369

12151821242730333639424548515457606366697275

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

CRIME RATE:

SEE DATA TABLES I1, I2 AND I3 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 36 of report)


21 | P a g e


From 2003/04 to 2016/17, the rate of reported incidents of domestic abuse largely increased,

locally and nationally, with area trends following broadly similar trajectories (Figure 20). In

the main, area trends climbed fairly steeply from 2003/04 to 2011/12, then levelled off from

2011/12 to 2014/15 before falling away after that, particularly in the three local areas. Closer

examination of the data, however, revealed distinctions between areas. First, rates in South

Ayrshire actually decreased marginally over 13 years by 5 per 1,000 population, mainly due

to a sharp drop during the recent period 2014/15-16/17. Moreover, rates in all other areas

increased quite divergently – by 27, 50 and 60 per 1,000 in Scotland, North and East Ayrshire

respectively. While 13-year increases in North and East were essentially double that of

Scotland, North and East figures sharply declined in the recent period 2014/15-16/17 in line

with South, while Scottish figures barely changed during that time.

FIGURE 20: Domestic abuse incidents, 2003/04 to 2016/17: crude rate per 10,000

population by geographical area


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

DOMESTIC ABUSE:


22 | P a g e


From 2002 to 2014, increased rates in the adult prison population – that is, standardised rates

of people aged 16+ in prison per 100,000 general population – increased substantially, both

locally and nationally (Figure 21). The 12-year increases ranged from about 60 per 100,000 in

Scotland to 100 per 100,000 in North Ayrshire, with East and South Ayrshire rates increasing

by around 90 per 100,000. This means that increases in rates were more sizeable locally than

nationally, thereby accounting for a widening of the gap between Scotland and local areas

over time (compare data for 2002 and 2014 in Figure 21). While 12-year increases were quite

substantial, local figures stopped rising after 2009, stabilising since then in the range 210 to

260 per 100,000; and national figures also stabilised during the same period well below the

local data, fluctuating narrowly between 160 and 170 per 100,000.

FIGURE 21: Prisoner population (16+ year olds) based on prisoners home address,

2002 to 2014: directly age standardised rate per 100,000 population by

geographical area


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

PRISON POPULATION:


23 | P a g e

J. Economy


From 2004 to 2017, the percentage of the total population classified as income deprived fell

marginally in all areas with the exception of North Ayrshire where the figure in 2017 was much

the same as that in 2004 (Figure 22). In general, area trends demonstrated concurrent and

small stepwise changes, not entirely unexpected given the nature of this data; namely, that

shifts in data would likely be modest, intermittent and reflect some kind of correspondence

between local and national levels. (This is in contrast to reported crime rates where similar

systematic patterns over time were unexpected – see Section I above.) Changes over 13 years

in income deprived were decreases of 1.8% in Scotland, 1.1% in East, 0.4% in South, and

effectively no change in North Ayrshire. Progress (i.e., reduction of income deprivation)

therefore appears to have occurred faster at national than local level, with the situation in

North fairly static unlike East and South which showed modest signs of progress.

FIGURE 22: Percentage of total population classified as income deprived within SIMD

income domain, 2004 to 2017: calculated using 2011 base population

estimates


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

INCOME DEPRIVED:

SEE DATA TABLES J1 AND J2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 37 of report)


24 | P a g e


From 2004/05 to 2017/18, the percentage of working age population (age 16-64) classified as

employment deprived fell marginally in all areas (Figure 23). Reductions over 13 years ranged

from 0.5% in North Ayrshire to 2.3% in Scotland, with East and South Ayrshire in between.

Thus Scottish progress (reduction in employment deprivation) exceeded local progress, as

was the case with income deprivation. Further correspondence between employment and

income deprivation (compare Figures 23 and 22) was evident as follows: small intermittent

and stepwise changes over 13 years; three distinct and simultaneous shifts in both sets of

data; and commensurate changes in a common direction over time. Two exceptions to this

conformity were that North Ayrshire demonstrated no overall change in income deprivation

despite a small reduction in employment deprivation, and coincident jumps in the data

observed in 2007/08 in Figure 23 and in 2007 in Figure 22 were in opposite directions; upward

for income deprivation and downward for employment deprivation.

FIGURE 23: Percentage of working age population (16-64) classified as employment

deprived within SIMD income domain, 2004/05 to 2017/18: calculated

using 2011 base population estimate


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

EMPLOYMENT DEPRIVED:


25 | P a g e

K. Environment


From 2002 to 2017, the percentage of population living in 15% most ‘access deprived’4 areas

in Scotland fluctuated considerably in Ayrshire and Arran over time, with local area figures all

crossing above and below the 15% Scottish average and yielding highest relative reports at

certain intervals (Figure 24). As such, there was no discernible regularity to local area trends.

In North Ayrshire, for example, the pattern was mainly below (better than) the national

average for most of the 15-year interval, but there was an unusual blip from 2007-09 when

‘access deprivation’ figures significantly elevated in North, exceeding 20% and comprising the

highest recorded for any area over the relevant period. In East Ayrshire, rates were also

mostly below the national average, but in the recent period, 2014-17, rates rose above the

15% line, placing East above (worse than) Scotland and the other two local areas. In South

Ayrshire, rates also fluctuated somewhat erratically over time around the 15% line, recently

falling below (better than) the national average.

FIGURE 24: Percentage of population living in 15% most 'access deprived' areas (data

zones) in Scotland, 2002 to 2017: calculated using 2011 base population

estimates


4 The SIMD provides a relative measure of deprivation which means that the main output from SIMD - the

SIMD ranks - can be used to compare data zones by providing a relative ranking from most deprived (rank 1) to least (rank 6,505). The SIMD can then be used to identify Scotland's most deprived small areas in relation to its composite domains, including geographical access to services, by applying a cut-off such as 15%.

0123456789

10111213141516171819202122232425

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

SEE DATA TABLES K1 AND K2 FOR MORE DETAILS (page 38 of report)

LIVING IN AN ‘ACCESS DEPRIVED’ AREA:


26 | P a g e


From 2007 to 2017, the percentage of population living near (within 500 metres of) a derelict

site increased locally and nationally to varying degrees (Figure 25). In Scotland, the 10-year

increase was fairly marginal, rising by 3% from 27-30%, with most of that change occurring

from 2007-09. The change in East Ayrshire was a 3% increase from 23-26%. However, North

and South rates elevated more considerably than those in East and Scotland, increasing

respectively by 8% from 32-40% and by 12% from 21-33%, so that these two areas currently

yield rates above (worse than) the Scottish average. Only East currently yields rates below

(better than) the national average. Since 2015 rates have been fairly stable in all areas.

FIGURE 25: Percentage of population living within 500 metres of a derelict site


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland

East Ayrshire

North Ayrshire

South Ayrshire

LIVING NEAR A DERELICT SITE:


27 | P a g e

L. Overview of trends

A number of improvements to population health and wellbeing were evident among the

various data trends presented in this report. Of note, in this context, were reduced rates of

smoking among the general population and an even stronger decline in rates among pregnant

women. Another positive sign was a sizeable fall in alcohol-related hospital stays over the

last 15 years, although national and local rates have levelled off in the last 5 years. Further

positive indications include overall improvements in child dental health and uptake of

immunisation of MMR and bowel screening, though these trends have recently stalled or

slightly declined. One clear area of progress has been ongoing improvement in school leavers’

qualifications, including those living in the most deprived areas. Slight progress was also seen

in gradually declining levels of income and employment deprivation locally, though progress

has stalled or remained comparatively slow in North Ayrshire.

Despite the above gains, some deficits were also evident in the data trends. Of note, in this

context, was a pronounced rise in drug-related hospitals stays, with marked increases locally

and nationally over the last few years coinciding with sharp increases in drug-related deaths

occurring within a similar time frame. Adverse impacts on population health and capacity of

local services to cope cannot be exaggerated if these trends persist. Other trends raising ‘red

flags’ for population health and services include sizeable local increases in emergency

hospitalisations (all ages and older people), hospital admissions for COPD, prescribing for

mental health problems, and social care provision for older people in their own homes. Some

of these problems have likely been created by increased life expectancy, though life

expectancy has levelled off in the last few years. Indicators of child health showed that

breastfeeding rates at 6-8 week antenatal review had notably declined in local areas,

potentially affecting the development and health of children at an early age. Moreover, rates

of children looked after in Ayrshire and Arran have remained significantly elevated above

national rates, currently and historically. And while crime rates appear to have fallen (though

relevant data appears somewhat artefactual), local increases in domestic abuse and the adult

prison population raise concern and potentially place further pressure on local services.

The various deficits highlighted here suggest that remedial action is required across a range

of public health issues, locally and nationally, to counter potential problems for population

health and attendant pressures on services in future.

28 | P a g e

Health and wellbeing: DATA TABLES

A. Life expectancy and mortality

TABLE A1: Life expectancy in years by area and gender: 3-year rolling average

2001- 2003

2002- 2004

2003-2005

2004-2006

2005-2007

2006-2008

2007-2009

2008-2010

2009-2011

2010-2012

2011-2013

2012-2014

2013-2015

2014-2016

Females

Scotland 73.5 73.8 74.2 74.6 74.8 75.0 75.3 75.8 76.2 76.5 76.8 77.1 77.1 77.1

East Ayrshire 72.6 73.5 73.7 74.5 74.1 74.6 74.6 75.5 75.8 76.1 75.8 75.9 76.1 76.5

North Ayrshire 72.7 73.3 73.8 74.0 73.8 74.0 74.2 75.2 75.3 76.0 75.9 76.5 76.1 75.9

South Ayrshire 74.0 74.4 75.0 75.7 75.7 75.5 75.9 76.4 77.2 77.3 77.7 78.2 77.7 77.5

Males

Scotland 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.7 79.8 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.7 80.9 81.1 81.1 81.1

East Ayrshire 77.9 78.4 77.9 78.2 77.9 78.4 78.7 79.5 79.9 80.2 79.7 79.7 79.4 79.8

North Ayrshire 78.5 79.1 78.9 79.0 79.1 79.1 79.3 79.6 80.3 80.7 81.0 81.0 80.8 80.5

South Ayrshire 79.2 79.6 80.0 80.5 80.6 80.9 80.9 81.1 81.0 81.2 80.9 81.0 81.0 80.8

TABLE A2: Deaths from all causes (all ages): EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average

2002- 2004

2003-2005

2004-2006

2005-2007

2006-2008

2007-2009

2008-2010

2009-2011

2010-2012

2011-2013

2012-2014

2013-2015

2014-2016

2015-2017

Scotland 1464.0 1426.3 1372.0 1348.8 1328.2 1300.0 1260.6 1218.1 1198.7 1181.0 1163.1 1165.0 1159.2 1167.1

East Ayrshire 1555.8 1551.5 1459.6 1451.4 1419.1 1401.4 1334.8 1280.2 1234.9 1254.6 1248.0 1265.6 1261.4 1269.1

North Ayrshire 1507.4 1467.7 1423.6 1421.8 1408.4 1400.9 1309.1 1258.0 1202.4 1215.7 1199.2 1235.9 1219.2 1223.1

South Ayrshire 1404.8 1350.3 1295.9 1259.8 1237.2 1217.9 1217.9 1199.8 1178.2 1145.6 1117.5 1130.3 1120.3 1112.7



29 | P a g e

B. Ill health and injury

TABLE B1: Patients hospitalised with respiratory problems by condition and area: EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average

2002/03 to

2004/05

2003/04 to

2005/06

2004/05 to

2006/07

2005/06 to

2007/08

2006/07 to

2008/09

2007/08 to

2009/10

2008/09 to

2010/11

2009/10 to

2011/12

2010/11 to

2012/13

2011/12 to

2013/14

2012/13 to

2014/15

2013/14 to

2015/16

2014/15 to

2016/17

2015/16 to

2017/18

COPD

Scotland 229.9 229.9 228.0 229.4 241.8 239.1 239.5 236.2 244.1 243.4 243.7 242.7 245.9 247.0

East Ayrshire 272.6 281.8 291.2 316.0 342.3 339.4 338.6 338.0 369.0 367.7 373.9 358.8 362.0 365.0

North Ayrshire 220.4 239.9 234.9 247.7 275.8 290.4 311.4 309.3 319.0 307.0 311.3 316.0 323.3 320.2

South Ayrshire 201.7 218.7 226.7 235.5 244.1 240.5 232.7 234.0 254.0 263.1 266.3 267.2 279.9 289.0

Asthma

Scotland 99.0 99.0 103.6 101.0 105.1 100.2 98.6 91.8 91.5 88.9 90.5 89.9 92.5 92.3

East Ayrshire 106.9 105.8 105.4 110.7 111.0 110.5 103.2 101.7 105.3 103.3 109.7 103.1 112.8 127.6

North Ayrshire 113.0 113.6 118.8 114.5 116.7 112.5 116.5 116.9 124.3 126.6 135.3 131.2 129.2 131.0

South Ayrshire 94.6 101.4 105.2 98.9 102.0 108.0 107.3 110.0 106.2 99.6 103.3 99.6 107.5 109.7

TABLE B2: Patient emergency hospitalisations: EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average

2011-2013 2012-2014 2013-2015 2014-2016 2015-2017

Patients (all ages) with emergency hospitalisations

Scotland 7439.1 7506.8 7564.1 7615.6 7601.0

East Ayrshire 9131.1 9234.8 9264.4 9452.9 9685.3

North Ayrshire 9165.0 9313.1 9481.0 9680.2 9893.7

South Ayrshire 8424.4 8662.0 8874.6 9178.0 9451.2

Patients aged 65+ with multiple emergency hospitalisations

Scotland 5309.9 5370.2 5390.2 5413.4 5422.3

East Ayrshire 6311.9 6513.6 6405.9 6498.1 6578.5

North Ayrshire 5801.1 5935.9 6166.1 6216.9 6277.3

South Ayrshire 5892.0 6005.2 6157.5 6242.2 6502.5



30 | P a g e

C. Mental health

TABLE C1: Percentage of population prescribed drugs for anxiety/depression/psychosis

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.8

East Ayrshire 15.8 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.2 19.7 20.1

North Ayrshire 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.1

South Ayrshire 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.3

TABLE C2: Patients with a psychiatric hospitalisation: EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average

2002/03 to

2004/05

2003/04 to

2005/06

2004/05 to

2006/07

2005/06 to

2007/08

2006/07 to

2008/09

2007/08 to

2009/10

2008/09 to

2010/11

2009/10 to

2011/12

2010/11 to

2012/13

2011/12 to

2013/14

2012/13 to

2014/15

2013/14 to

2015/16

2014/15 to

2016/17

2015/16 to

2017/18

Scotland 392.3 378.1 360.1 343.4 334.1 324.1 313.2 298.8 291.0 285.5 278.7 273.3 267.0 262.0

East Ayrshire 404.5 391.7 384.9 352.3 337.4 327.7 322.4 300.8 267.2 236.8 210.9 206.3 205.6 207.2

North Ayrshire 361.9 363.5 343.0 334.4 325.3 316.8 311.0 303.8 299.6 298.3 285.7 285.8 280.5 281.1

South Ayrshire 419.6 407.2 394.1 382.4 356.5 342.2 321.8 327.5 312.4 301.6 275.7 272.2 260.2 259.9



31 | P a g e

D. Behaviours which impact on health

TABLE D1: Estimated percentage of adult population (aged 16+) who smoke

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland 23.8 22.3 21.2 20.7 19.6 18.0

East Ayrshire 28.1 23.7 24.5 21.0 22.1 19.2

North Ayrshire 27.9 26.6 22.8 23.3 27.0 21.8

South Ayrshire 15.5 21.6 19.1 18.8 16.9 15.2

TABLE D2: Alcohol-related hospital stays: EASR per 100,000 population

2002/

03 2003/

04 2004/

05 2005/

06 2006/

07 2007/

08 2008/

09 2009/

10 2010/

11 2011/

12 2012/

13 2013/

14 2014/

15 2015/

16 2016/

17 2017/

18

Scotland 743.1 740.8 795.4 779.4 809.3 855.5 828.1 771.4 759.8 749.6 699.1 706.4 676.5 674.1 685.4 676.3

East Ayrshire 984.4 880.4 959.2 1030.7 1070.6 1084.6 983.6 966.4 980.9 925.2 820.1 805.2 751.0 662.0 738.3 658.0

North Ayrshire 1095.7 1040.5 1037.1 1033.0 1043.4 1170.6 1111.4 1163.2 1119.8 1093.6 925.4 922.6 868.3 814.7 895.5 894.9

South Ayrshire 1035.9 1081.6 1049.2 1030.5 998.8 993.0 978.9 1044.9 914.3 875.6 795.0 772.8 717.2 697.0 705.4 758.1

TABLE D3: Drug-related hospital stays: EASR per 100,000 population, 3-year rolling average

2002/03 to

2004/05

2003/04 to

2005/06

2004/05 to

2006/07

2005/06 to

2007/08

2006/07 to

2008/09

2007/08 to

2009/10

2008/09 to

2010/11

2009/10 to

2011/12

2010/11 to

2012/13

2011/12 to

2013/14

2012/13 to

2014/15

2013/14 to

2015/16

2014/15 to

2016/17

2015/16 to

2017/18

Scotland 98.1 95.4 98.2 105.2 115.4 121.6 126.0 128.7 128.6 131.1 136.5 149.2 163.2 180.5

East Ayrshire 187.5 177.6 189.0 210.6 223.0 232.1 240.0 271.4 279.8 273.9 264.2 268.4 296.8 326.8

North Ayrshire 203.4 205.2 214.3 229.1 253.0 262.9 274.1 284.4 279.4 270.4 266.2 298.0 356.9 397.9

South Ayrshire 155.3 168.6 175.2 169.1 175.3 168.7 172.5 167.2 159.3 154.9 162.1 187.1 219.3 242.7



32 | P a g e

E. Women’s and children’s health

TABLE E1: Percentage of women smoking during pregnancy: 3-year rolling average

2003/04 to

2005/06

2004/05 to

2006/07

2005/06 to

2007/08

2006/07 to

2008/09

2007/08 to

2009/10

2008/09 to

2010/11

2009/10 to

2011/12

2010/11 to

2012/13

2011/12 to

2013/14

2012/13 to

2014/15

2013/14 to

2015/16

2014/15 to

2016/17

2015/16 to

2017/18

Scotland 24.7 24.0 23.3 22.4 21.5 20.8 20.5 20.0 19.4 18.5 17.3 16.3 15.4

East Ayrshire 29.5 28.4 27.6 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.2 26.2 25.2 24.4 22.4 20.7 19.1

North Ayrshire 31.0 30.4 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 27.9 26.9 25.2 24.3 23.1

South Ayrshire 25.6 26.6 26.1 25.3 24.6 24.7 24.1 24.0 23.0 22.3 19.4 18.2 16.8

TABLE E2: Percentage of babies exclusively breastfed at 6-8 week postnatal review: 3-year rolling average

2002/03 to

2004/05

2003/04 to

2005/06

2004/05 to

2006/07

2005/06 to

2007/08

2006/07 to

2008/09

2007/08 to

2009/10

2008/09 to

2010/11

2009/10 to

2011/12

2010/11 to

2012/13

2011/12 to

2013/14

2012/13 to

2014/15

2013/14 to

2015/16

2014/15 to

2016/17

2015/16 to

2017/18

Scotland 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.5 28.5 29.7

East Ayrshire 22.4 21.9 22.2 20.2 18.7 17.6 17.3 17.7 16.7 17.1 16.4 16.2 15.4 14.7

North Ayrshire 19.6 20.4 20.0 18.4 17.3 17.4 17.0 15.8 14.5 15.4 16.5 16.9 16.5 15.8

South Ayrshire 26.0 25.6 25.4 24.0 23.2 21.5 21.5 21.9 22.2 23.1 22.7 22.4 21.8 20.9

TABLE E3: Percentage of P7 children (aged 10-11) with no obvious tooth decay

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland 45.0 47.7 51.6 67.9 69.4 71.2

East Ayrshire 40.7 43.1 47.3 75.3 70.5 63.0

North Ayrshire 42.2 45.1 50.8 71.2 73.4 72.5

South Ayrshire 43.3 43.8 54.7 77.7 72.2 78.4



33 | P a g e

F. Immunisations and screenings

TABLE F1: Immunisation uptake of MMR at 24 months: percentage of children this age, 3-year rolling average

2004 to 2006

2005 to 2007

2006 to 2008

2007 to 2009

2008 to 2010

2009 to 2011

2010 to 2012

2011 to 2013

2012 to 2014

2013 to 2015

2014 to 2016

2015 to 2017

2016 to 2018

Scotland 90.1 91.4 92.1 92.6 93.0 93.6 94.1 94.8 95.3 95.5 95.3 95.0 94.6

East Ayrshire 90.0 91.6 93.1 93.8 94.5 95.4 96.1 96.9 97.6 97.7 97.7 97.4 97.2

North Ayrshire 89.7 91.3 92.0 92.2 92.6 93.4 94.3 95.5 96.2 95.9 95.6 95.3 94.7

South Ayrshire 91.8 93.1 94.1 93.6 93.5 93.8 94.8 95.8 96.3 96.2 96.7 96.7 96.8

TABLE F2: Bowel screening uptake: percentage of eligible adults aged 50-74 invited, 3-year rolling average

2008 to 2010

2009 to 2011

2010 to 2012

2011 to 2013

2012 to 2014

2013 to 2015

2014 to 2016

2015 to 2017

Scotland 54.1 54.5 55.1 56.0 57.3 57.6 57.2 56.4

East Ayrshire 51.4 53.0 54.1 54.8 56.2 56.4 55.7 54.7

North Ayrshire 51.4 52.7 53.5 54.0 55.5 55.9 55.1 54.1

South Ayrshire 56.0 57.1 58.2 58.9 60.1 60.2 59.6 58.8



34 | P a g e

G. Social care TABLE G1: Children aged 0-18 years old looked after by local authority: crude rate per 1,000 children of this age

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 15.5 15.6 15.4 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.3

East Ayrshire 20.6 21.0 21.4 20.7 19.1 19.2 16.1

North Ayrshire 20.7 21.0 21.6 22.3 24.0 23.0 22.2

South Ayrshire 15.9 16.9 17.7 16.8 16.2 19.0 18.4

TABLE G2: Percentage of people aged 65+ with high levels of care needs*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 29.3 30.4 31.5 31.2 32.1 32.2 33.0 34.1 34.3 35.4 34.8 35.2

East Ayrshire 42.0 40.8 43.5 41.1 30.9 27.8 35.8 31.5 30.3 30.3 31.5 29.9

North Ayrshire 24.6 27.1 32.8 35.8 31.5 30.8 36.2 38.0 40.3 41.6 34.3 31.3

South Ayrshire 40.4 41.6 43.3 43.1 42.3 41.1 34.1 36.9 34.6 31.7 37.1 35.8

* People 65+ with high levels of care needs are defined as those who are: (1) receiving 10+ hours of home care purchased or provided by a local authority; (2) resident in a care home; or (3) resident long-term in NHS hospital.



35 | P a g e

H. Education TABLE H1: Percentage of all school leavers with one or more qualification at SCQF Level 6

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Scotland 50.3 52.3 55.7 55.7 58.0 60.2 61.6

East Ayrshire 47.4 49.6 54.7 53.5 57.1 57.8 56.8

North Ayrshire 45.4 47.3 48.9 54.7 51.9 55.9 59.3

South Ayrshire 53.3 54.8 59.1 54.4 57.0 61.0 65.0

TABLE H2: Percentage of school leavers in most deprived quintile with one or more qualification at SCQF Level 6

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland 27.0 30.2 33.6 34.9 38.5 41.2 42.7 43.0 44.4

East Ayrshire 28.8 31.0 36.5 40.7 40.6 42.1 38.0 38.2 45.3

North Ayrshire 27.8 29.6 34.6 37.3 33.9 41.7 42.2 40.3 46.0

South Ayrshire 24.2 27.5 37.6 25.0 30.8 42.3 40.0 42.9 42.9



36 | P a g e

I. Crime

TABLE I1: Crime rates:* crude rate per 1,000 population

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 53.4 53.2 52.9 49.2 48.9 48.7 41.0 40.7 40.6 40.5 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.5

East Ayrshire 52.2 52.2 52.1 50.2 49.9 49.7 42.7 42.6 42.6 42.7 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.9

North Ayrshire 58.6 58.5 58.5 52.6 52.5 52.5 48.4 48.3 48.5 48.7 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.1

South Ayrshire 45.7 45.7 45.6 45.0 44.9 45.0 38.5 38.4 38.4 38.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4

* Based on recorded incidents of violence, sexual offences, domestic housebreaking, vandalism, drug offences and common assault.

TABLE I2: Domestic abuse incidents: crude rate per 10,000 population

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Scotland 81.4 85.8 88.7 95.2 96.6 103.7 99.3 105.9 112.9 113.1 109.7 112.0 108.1 108.8

East Ayrshire 44.6 87.4 85.4 95.4 103.6 103.0 104.3 113.3 116.6 115.1 123.3 128.3 125.8 110.3

North Ayrshire 73.1 83.0 87.4 106.4 106.8 118.9 128.4 130.0 137.4 132.3 134.2 134.1 126.7 123.4

South Ayrshire 94.9 92.0 84.8 95.9 102.1 98.1 107.4 110.6 112.0 114.4 111.0 115.2 100.2 89.8

TABLE I3: Adult 16+ prison population: directly age standardised rate per 100,000 general population

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Scotland 102.7 113.2 116.8 119.1 123.0 131.6 146.0 163.2 163.3 167.1 173.6 163.0 161.9

East Ayrshire 127.5 141.0 134.3 140.1 161.1 188.2 180.5 210.5 237.2 226.3 231.1 227.6 216.3

North Ayrshire 160.9 167.3 180.9 139.6 171.4 196.6 213.8 251.2 257.7 216.5 238.2 251.9 261.5

South Ayrshire 115.3 106.8 125.4 123.4 129.7 164.7 154.7 208.5 216.6 221.1 220.3 207.1 207.7



37 | P a g e

J. Economy

TABLE J1: Percentage of total population classified as income deprived within SIMD income domain: calculated using 2011 base population estimates

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 13.9 13.9 13.8 15.1 15.0 14.9 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2

East Ayrshire 16.7 16.6 16.6 18.0 17.9 17.8 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5

North Ayrshire 17.3 17.2 17.2 19.0 18.9 18.9 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3

South Ayrshire 13.1 13.0 13.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6

TABLE J2: Percentage of working age population (16-64) classified as employment deprived within SIMD income domain: calculated using 2011 base population estimate

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Scotland 12.9 12.8 12.7 11.5 11.4 11.4 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.2 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6

East Ayrshire 15.3 15.2 15.2 13.8 13.7 13.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6

North Ayrshire 15.8 15.8 15.8 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.3 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.3

South Ayrshire 12.8 12.8 12.8 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8



38 | P a g e

K. Environment

TABLE K1: Percentage of population living in 15% most 'access deprived' areas (data zones) in Scotland: calculated using 2011 base population estimates

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

East Ayrshire 9.9 9.9 14.8 15.1 15.3 13.1 13.3 13.3 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5

North Ayrshire 12.2 12.3 11.3 11.3 11.1 20.9 21.2 20.8 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1

South Ayrshire 18.5 17.8 13.4 13.5 12.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.8 13.5 12.9 13.0 13.1

TABLE K2: Percentage of population living within 500 metres of a derelict site

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Scotland 27.3 29.4 30.8 29.8 30.1 30.9 29.7 29.2 29.7 30.3 29.8

East Ayrshire 23.0 23.0 25.5 25.1 28.1 28.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 26.2

North Ayrshire 32.0 40.1 41.1 39.9 45.2 43.3 39.3 39.9 39.5 39.3 39.7

South Ayrshire 21.1 22.3 23.7 20.9 20.4 22.5 24.8 25.0 30.9 33.0 32.5



Documents

Health and Wellbeing in Ayrshire and Arran and Wellbeing... · 2020-01-22 · Health and wellbeing in Ayrshire and Arran Introduction to second volume In the first volume1 of this