HCC Market Bulletin November 2019

Hybu Cig CymruMeat Promotion Wales

www.meatpromotion.wales

Kantar Worldpanel data indicates that total spend on lamb in GB is up on year-earlier levels, with the frequency of purchase for lamb increasing as consumers look to buy less, more often, for convenience purposes. This month’s market bulletin will look at the GB lamb retail sales in greater detail for the year to date (06 October 2019).

GB retail sales of total lambKantar Worldpanel data for the year to date (up until 06 October 2019) shows that the total volume of GB lamb sales for the period remained relatively stable compared to last year at 46,000 tonnes. Neither fresh or frozen categories experienced much change in volume terms either – with total frozen lamb decreasing 0.9% on year earlier levels. Despite the volume of lamb sales not experiencing much change, total spend increased by 2.0% to total £435.8 million. Overall spend on lamb at retail has improved due to a 2.0% increase in the average price, which stood at £9.48/kg.

Looking further at the data, frequency of purchase for lamb increased by 1.9% to 5.0 times (per buyer) during the time period. As consumers look for convenient meal options, lamb purchases are more frequent but shoppers bought less with each trip – with the average volume per trip standing at 0.7kg (down 1.1% on year-earlier levels). Almost half (48.1%) of GB households bought lamb at retail during this time period, although this is a decrease of 1.7% on year-earlier levels. In summary, fewer people purchased lamb at retail (down 0.8%), but those that did buy lamb during the time frame bought an overall increased volume (up 0.8%).

GB retail sales of various lamb categoriesThe total volume of lamb sold at retail in GB during the time period did not differ greatly to year-earlier levels, however data from Kantar Worldpanel indicates that the volume of various lamb categories showed some year-on-year change. The largest change in volume sold was recorded for lamb shoulder roasting joints which experienced a 6.4% decrease (in volume terms). Following on from a decrease in volume, the shoulder roasting joints saw a decline in total spend too - down 6.2%. The volume of lamb leg roasting joints sold remained relatively similar to last year (down 0.3%), but experienced an increase of 6.2% in total spend due to an increase of 54p in the average price to £8.88/kg. Together, roasting joints accounted for 45.7% of all GB lamb sales (in terms of value) – an increase on the 44.9% share seen this time last year. Although roasting joints saw an overall decrease in the total volume sold during the time frame, sales of frozen roasting joints saw an increase of more than 20% when compared to sales of fresh roasting joints (down 2.6%).

There was a significant increase of 6.2% in the volume of lamb mince sold during the time frame due to buyers increasing the frequency of which lamb mince was put in their basket (up 5.0%). Following on from the increase in volume sold, and the 2.3% rise in the average price per kg, total spend on mince increased 8.7% year-on-year which meant that lamb mince accounted for 9.1% of total GB lamb sales during the time period.

(’000

hea

d)

100Steers Heifers

275

450

625

800

Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)

Sour

ce: D

efra

Young Bulls

170

190

195

175

p/kg

lw

200

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime cattle slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

110100

140

160

120

180

Sour

ce: D

efra

140

200

220240

160

p/kg

lw

260

280

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime lamb slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

800

700

1000

1100

1300

Sour

ce: D

efra

145

155

135

p/kg

lw 160

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)

140

(000

) hea

d

UK clean pig slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

650

600

750

900

800

Sour

ce: D

efra

1000

170

150

120

1200

900 700

850

950

Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)

(000

) hea

d

5

0

15

25

35

10

20

30

31/3

/18

7/4/

1814

/4/1

821

/4/1

828

/4/1

85/

5/18

12/5

/18

19/5

/18

26/5

/18

2/6/

189/

6/18

16/6

/18

23/6

/18

30/6

/18

7/7/

1814

/7/1

821

/7/1

828

/7/1

84/

8/18

18/8

/18

25/8

/18

11/8

/18

20182017

New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales

Beef70.2%

Dairy29.8% Beef

Dairy

20172018

year

-on-

year

cha

nge

(%)

Chops/Steaks

10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales

(YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

head

0

200

400

500

700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)

190

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

205

210

185

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

170

Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)

100

300

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Steers Heifers Young Bulls

Sour

ce: D

efra

1652019

20172018

150

165

175

Leg Roasting Joint

Shoulder Roasting Joint

MinceStewing

Other

ValueVolume

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)

Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)

Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

(’000

hea

d)

100Steers Heifers

275

450

625

800

Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)

Sour

ce: D

efra

Young Bulls

170

190

195

175

p/kg

lw

200

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime cattle slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

110100

140

160

120

180

Sour

ce: D

efra

140

200

220240

160

p/kg

lw

260

280

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime lamb slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

800

700

1000

1100

1300

Sour

ce: D

efra

145

155

135

p/kg

lw 160

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)

140

(000

) hea

d

UK clean pig slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

650

600

750

900

800

Sour

ce: D

efra

1000

170

150

120

1200

900 700

850

950

Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)

(000

) hea

d

5

0

15

25

35

10

20

30

31/3

/18

7/4/

1814

/4/1

821

/4/1

828

/4/1

85/

5/18

12/5

/18

19/5

/18

26/5

/18

2/6/

189/

6/18

16/6

/18

23/6

/18

30/6

/18

7/7/

1814

/7/1

821

/7/1

828

/7/1

84/

8/18

18/8

/18

25/8

/18

11/8

/18

20182017

New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales

Beef70.2%

Dairy29.8% Beef

Dairy

20172018

year

-on-

year

cha

nge

(%)

Chops/Steaks

10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales

(YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

head

0

200

400

500

700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)

190

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

205

210

185

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

170

Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)

100

300

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Steers Heifers Young Bulls

Sour

ce: D

efra

1652019

20172018

150

165

175

Leg Roasting Joint

Shoulder Roasting Joint

MinceStewing

Other

ValueVolume

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)

Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)

Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

CATTLEThe all prime cattle average market price in England and Wales stood at 175.1p/kg for the week ending 02 November – a decrease of 0.8p on the week, and 11.2p below year earlier levels. Cattle prices continue to trend below the 5-year average, with the current liveweight price sitting 11.7p below the average (2014-18 average: 186.8p/kg). For the week ending 02 November, the average deadweight prices in England and Wales decreased on the week for all categories of prime cattle. Heifers saw the biggest decrease to 314.3p/kg (-3.3p), whilst young bulls fell 2.8p to 299.4p/kg. Steers were relatively stable on the week (-0.1p) to 316.5p/kg, and now stand 33.8p below year-earlier levels.

Total cattle throughput at UK abattoirs stood at 228, 800 head for September – up 6.3% on August and up 4.9% on the corresponding month last year. Total prime cattle throughput for the month was significantly higher than the previous month (+ 6.3%) and year-earlier levels (+ 6.8%) and stood at 170,100 head. Within this total, heifer throughput was 11.1% above year-earlier levels with an average carcase weight of 316.6kg – the lightest on record so far this year, and 2.1kg lighter than last year.

(’000

hea

d)

100Steers Heifers

275

450

625

800

Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)

Sour

ce: D

efra

Young Bulls

170

190

195

175

p/kg

lw

200

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime cattle slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

110100

140

160

120

180

Sour

ce: D

efra

140

200

220240

160

p/kg

lw

260

280

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime lamb slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

800

700

1000

1100

1300

Sour

ce: D

efra

145

155

135

p/kg

lw 160

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)

140

(000

) hea

d

UK clean pig slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

650

600

750

900

800

Sour

ce: D

efra

1000

170

150

120

1200

900 700

850

950

Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)

(000

) hea

d

5

0

15

25

35

10

20

30

31/3

/18

7/4/

1814

/4/1

821

/4/1

828

/4/1

85/

5/18

12/5

/18

19/5

/18

26/5

/18

2/6/

189/

6/18

16/6

/18

23/6

/18

30/6

/18

7/7/

1814

/7/1

821

/7/1

828

/7/1

84/

8/18

18/8

/18

25/8

/18

11/8

/18

20182017

New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales

Beef70.2%

Dairy29.8% Beef

Dairy

20172018

year

-on-

year

cha

nge

(%)

Chops/Steaks

10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales

(YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

head

0

200

400

500

700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)

190

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

205

210

185

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

170

Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)

100

300

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Steers Heifers Young Bulls

Sour

ce: D

efra

1652019

20172018

150

165

175

Leg Roasting Joint

Shoulder Roasting Joint

MinceStewing

Other

ValueVolume

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)

Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)

Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

Total UK beef production September ’19 = 76,800 tonnes

+6.5% y-o-y

SHEEPThe Welsh average liveweight SQQ at auction continues to follow the seasonal trend and stood at 169.3p/kg for the week ending 02 November. The current price is an increase of 7.4p on the week and is above year-earlier levels for the first time since the start of August (up 3.4p). Additionally, the price is almost 12p above the 5-year average (2014-18 average: 157.4p/kg). Cull ewe prices at auction markets in Wales for the week ending 02 November stood at £48.40 – up £1.70 on the previous week, and £7.20 above year-earlier levels. Deadweight prices in GB stood at 377.1p/kg for the week ending 02 November, with the price gap between this year and last narrowing even further to 9.6p.

Total sheep throughput at UK abattoirs stood at 1.3million head for September – 6.4% below August, but 7.6% above the corresponding month a year earlier. Prime lamb made up 89% of the total throughput for the month, with cull ewes and ram throughput being 13.5% higher than September last year. When looking at the May to September period this year, prime lamb numbers are 5.1% above year-earlier levels at 5.4million head. Sheep meat production for the month was up on September last year following higher throughput for both prime lambs and cull sheep, whilst carcase weights remained steady on the year.

Total UK sheep

meat production September ’19 = 26,900 tonnes

+8.4% y-o-y

(’000

hea

d)

100Steers Heifers

275

450

625

800

Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)

Sour

ce: D

efra

Young Bulls

170

190

195

175

p/kg

lw

200

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime cattle slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

110100

140

160

120

180

Sour

ce: D

efra

140

200

220240

160

p/kg

lw

260

280

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime lamb slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

800

700

1000

1100

1300

Sour

ce: D

efra

145

155

135

p/kg

lw 160

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)

140

(000

) hea

d

UK clean pig slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

650

600

750

900

800So

urce

: Def

ra

1000

170

150

120

1200

900 700

850

950

Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)

(000

) hea

d

5

0

15

25

35

10

20

30

31/3

/18

7/4/

1814

/4/1

821

/4/1

828

/4/1

85/

5/18

12/5

/18

19/5

/18

26/5

/18

2/6/

189/

6/18

16/6

/18

23/6

/18

30/6

/18

7/7/

1814

/7/1

821

/7/1

828

/7/1

84/

8/18

18/8

/18

25/8

/18

11/8

/18

20182017

New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales

Beef70.2%

Dairy29.8% Beef

Dairy

20172018

year

-on-

year

cha

nge

(%)

Chops/Steaks

10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales

(YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

head

0

200

400

500

700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)

190

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

205

210

185

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

170

Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)

100

300

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Steers Heifers Young Bulls

Sour

ce: D

efra

1652019

20172018

150

165

175

Leg Roasting Joint

Shoulder Roasting Joint

MinceStewing

Other

ValueVolume

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)

Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)

Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

PIGSThe EU-spec All Pig Price (APP) in GB stood at 158.9p/kg for the week ending 26 October – up slightly on the previous week (+0.3p), and 9.9p above the corresponding week a year earlier. Prices rose above year-earlier levels during the end of June, with this upward trend following on since then and prices sitting 10.4p above the 5-year average (2014-18 average: 148.5p/kg). The 30kg average weaner price in GB was not available for the week ending 26 October, whilst the 7kg average price stood at £41.10/head (+10.21% on year-earlier levels).

Total pig throughputs at UK abattoirs stood at 906,600 head for September, which is 5.3% below throughputs recorded for August but 4.2% above year-earlier levels. Clean pig throughput stood at 887,100 head for September – down 5.5% on the month, but up 4.5% on the year. Pork production for the month was up 5.9% due to higher throughputs and heavier carcases coming forward – with total production so far this year up 2.0% on year-earlier levels. Following increased demand in the Asian region due to the African Swine Fever, UK pork exports to China during the first 9 months of this year are up 86.7% on the corresponding period last year.

Total UK pork production September ’19 = 77,700 tonnes

+5.9% y-o-y

(’000

hea

d)

100Steers Heifers

275

450

625

800

Prime cattle throughput at UK abattoirs (January - September)

Sour

ce: D

efra

Young Bulls

170

190

195

175

p/kg

lw

200

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime cattle prices at auction markets in England and Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime cattle slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

110100

140

160

120

180

Sour

ce: D

efra

140

200

220240

160

p/kg

lw

260

280

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

Prime lamb (SQQ) prices at auction markets in Wales

180

(000

) hea

d

UK prime lamb slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

800

700

1000

1100

1300

Sour

ce: D

efra

145

155

135

p/kg

lw 160

Apr Jun

Aug Oct

Dec

Feb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

GB average all pig price (EU-Spec)

140

(000

) hea

d

UK clean pig slaughterings

Apr

Jun

Aug

Oct

DecFeb

May Ju

l

Sep

NovJan

Mar

650

600

750

900

800

Sour

ce: D

efra

1000

170

150

120

1200

900 700

850

950

Beef and dairy calf regestrations in Wales(January - June 2018)

(000

) hea

d

5

0

15

25

35

10

20

30

31/3

/18

7/4/

1814

/4/1

821

/4/1

828

/4/1

85/

5/18

12/5

/18

19/5

/18

26/5

/18

2/6/

189/

6/18

16/6

/18

23/6

/18

30/6

/18

7/7/

1814

/7/1

821

/7/1

828

/7/1

84/

8/18

18/8

/18

25/8

/18

11/8

/18

20182017

New Season Lamb (SQQ) numbers at auction markets in Wales

Beef70.2%

Dairy29.8% Beef

Dairy

20172018

year

-on-

year

cha

nge

(%)

Chops/Steaks

10.0%Change in retail GB lamb sales

(YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

head

0

200

400

500

700UK livestock throughput (Jan - Aug)

190

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

205

210

185

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

2019

20172018

170

Spend£435.8 million (+ 2.0%)

100

300

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Steers Heifers Young Bulls

Sour

ce: D

efra

1652019

20172018

150

165

175

Leg Roasting Joint

Shoulder Roasting Joint

MinceStewing

Other

ValueVolume

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

Volume46,000 tonnes (0.0%)

Average Price£9.48/kg (+2.0%)

Summary of GB lamb retail sales (YTD 06.10.2019)

Source: Kantar Worldpanel