Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis: Updatei Ohio ...ema.ohio.gov/Documents/OhioMitigationPlan/Appendix_I_Ohio_HIRA_D… · Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis: Updatei Ohio

Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis: Updatei

Ohio Emergency Management Agency2855 West Dublin-Granville Road

Columbus, Ohio 43235

December 2007

Page 2 of 39

TABLE OF CONTENTS:

TABLE OF CONTENTS:............................................................................................................... 2LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ 3INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 4

A General Overview of Hazards in Ohio.................................................................................... 4An Ohio Profile........................................................................................................................... 7Geography and Climate .............................................................................................................. 7The Economy of Ohio (including transportation)....................................................................... 7A Historical Review of Disasters................................................................................................ 8

RISK ASSESSMENT, THE ANALYSIS PROCESS (METHODOLOGY, FACTORS, ANDVALUES) ..................................................................................................................................... 15

Frequency.................................................................................................................................. 15Average Response Duration ..................................................................................................... 16Average Speed of Onset............................................................................................................ 16Average Magnitude (Impact) .................................................................................................... 16Impact on Business ................................................................................................................... 16Impact on Human (People) ....................................................................................................... 17Impact on Property.................................................................................................................... 17Factor/Value Overview............................................................................................................. 17HAZARD ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT AND DETAILED HAZARDOVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 18Natural Hazards ........................................................................................................................ 18

Flood, Flash Flood, Seiche ................................................................................................... 18Windstorm, Tornadoes .......................................................................................................... 19Emerging Diseases................................................................................................................ 20Earthquakes .......................................................................................................................... 20Snow, Ice, Hail and Sleet ...................................................................................................... 23Landslide, Mudslide, Subsidence .......................................................................................... 23

Human Caused Hazards............................................................................................................ 25Building/Structure Collapse.................................................................................................. 25Water Control Structure (Dam/Levee Failure)..................................................................... 25Product Defect or Contamination......................................................................................... 26Terrorism (CBRNE and Cyber) ............................................................................................ 26Explosion/Fire....................................................................................................................... 27

ATTACHMENT 1: DETAILED HAZARD ANALYSIS............................................................ 28ATTACHMENT 2: HAZARD RANKING SUMMARY SHEET............................................... 37

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Hazards Identified ........................................................................................................... 5

Figure 2: Historical Events and Hazards ........................................................................................ 8

Figure 3: Presidential Disaster and Emergency Declarations in Ohio with Costs, by County(1964-01)............................................................................................................................... 10

Figure 4: Flood Damage Comparison Chart for Ohio (1997-98) ................................................. 19

Figure 5: Ohio's Tornado History (1950-99) ................................................................................ 19

Figure 6: Earthquake Epicenters in Ohio and Adjacent Areas ..................................................... 21

Figure 7: Effects of a Major New Madrid Earthquake in Ohio .................................................... 22

Figure 8: Ohio Landslides............................................................................................................. 24

Figure 9: Ohio Subsidence and Landslides................................................................................... 24

Figure 10: Class I Dams in Ohio................................................................................................... 26

Page 4 of 39

INTRODUCTION

The 2007 Edition of the Ohio Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) is a revision from theMarch 2003 document. Similar to the ’03 version, this document was prepared by Plans Branch personnelat Ohio EMA with the assistance of all branches at Ohio EMA and other state/federal partners. Inparticular, the work performed by the Mitigation Branch and its hazard analysis in the EnhancedMitigation Plan was very beneficial.

The intent of this document is to be a useful tool for state and local emergency management partners todiscuss hazard and vulnerability. The HIRA does not provide policy or action-based recommendations tomanage hazards. This document is one element of a comprehensive emergency management program thatincorporates mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Mitigation plans, the State of OhioEmergency Operations Plan as well as standard operating procedures round-out a comprehensive programto manage hazards.

Emergency management in Ohio is governed by Ohio Revised Code 5502. Sections 5502.21 mandatesthat the EMA, a division of the Department of Public Safety, is the primary coordinating agency forstatewide emergency readiness activities to meet the threats posed by various hazards.ii In cooperationwith other state offices and agencies, the agency has developed this analysis of the primary hazards thatmay threaten both lives and property.

Much discussion about hazards, hazard identification and risk analysis permeates the professional andacademic literature in emergency management. For the purpose of this HIRA, we will use the OhioRevised Code (ORC) explanation of hazard. ‘Hazards’ in Chapter 5502.21 of the ORC are defined as:"…means any actual or imminent threat to the survival or overall health, safety, or welfare of the civilianpopulation that is caused by any natural, human-made, or technological event.”iii

As defined by the ORC, "Hazard identification means an identification, historical analysis, inventory, orspatial distribution of risks that could affect a specific geographical area and that would cause a threat tothe survival, health, safety, or welfare of the civilian population, the property of that population, or theenvironment.”iv The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 1600 requires entities to“identify hazards, monitor those hazards, the likelihood of their occurrence, and the vulnerability ofpeople, property and the environment, and the entity itself to those hazards”v as part of the riskassessment process.

A General Overview of Hazards in Ohio

Upon reviewing the literature in hazard analysis, nearly sixty hazards were identified. These hazardsinclude those listed in NFPA 1600, the 15 National Planning Scenarios, the National Plan Review, areport produced for Ohio EMA by URS, and Ohio EMA’s Enhanced Mitigation Plan. To help simplifythe hazards, three major groups have been created to categorize the hazards based on the categoriesrecommended in NFPA 1600. The categories are Natural Hazards/Events, Human Caused Hazards/Eventsand Technological Hazards/Events as shown in Figure 1. Each of the hazards identified are not mutuallyexclusive. Meaning, rain and flooding may lead to landslides/mudslides/subsidence and hazardousmaterial events. Therefore, the hazard categories are grouped into five sub-groups of hazards below thethree categories. For instance, the Natural Hazards utilize Biological, Geological and Meteorological sub-categories. Some hazards are not germane to Ohio and/or not likely enough a scenario to warrant

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consideration in this hazard identification and risk analysis. These non-analyzed hazards are noted by theheading of “Not analyzed for HIRA”.

Figure 1: Hazards Identified

Natural Hazards/Events: Human Caused Hazards/Events:Accidental

Air/Water Pollution, ContaminationBuilding/Structure CollapseCommunications System InterruptionsEnergy/Power/Utility FailureExplosion/FireFuel/Resource ShortageHazardous MaterialTransportation AccidentWater Control Structure

IntentionalCivil Disturbance, Public Unrest, Mass HysteriaCriminal ActivityProduct DefectTerrorism

Not Analyzed for HIRA:

BiologicalAnimal or Insect Infestation or DamageEmerging Disease

GeologicalEarthquakeLandslide, Mudslide, Subsidence

MeteorologicalDroughtExtreme TemperaturesFireFlood, Flash Flood, SeicheLightning StrikesSnow, Ice, Hail, SleetWindstorm, Tornado

Technological Hazards/Events:

Central Computer, Mainframe, Software, or ApplicationFailureEnergy/Power/UtilityTelecommunications

* Not explicitly listed in NFPA 1600

Ancillary Support Equipment Failure (support and lab-basedequipment)AvalancheDiscriminationDisinformation (deliberate)Dust StormElectromagnetic Pulse (intensely fluctuating magnetic field)Enemy Attack/WarFamineFinancial Issues (Economic Depression, Inflation, FinancialSystem Collapse)Geomagnetic Storm (temporary disturbance of atmospherecausing communications disruption, among other things)GlacierHarassmentHurricaneIcebergInsurrection (revolt)Misinformation (non-deliberate)SabotageSand StormStrike or Labor DisputeTidal SurgeTropical CycloneTsunamiWater SpoutWorkplace ViolenceVolcano

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The most damaging hazards/events are floods and tornadoes. Other severe weather events, such as winterstorms, have also led to floods or costly recovery actions. Drought has also led to agricultural losses andforced water users to seek assistance during these sustained periods of insufficient precipitation.

For over 200 years, earthquakes, often centered on the Anna (Shelby County) Fault Line, have alsooccurred in Ohio, with most classified as “minor” in nature. A large-scale (regional) event involving theNew Madrid, Missouri fault, could significantly affect portions of southwestern Ohio.

Activities associated with humankind also have their effects; woodland and field fires show a need toreduce this costly resource depletion. Mine closings have led to issues related to subsidence andlandslides. From the 1940s until the present, closings were made without actions to prevent shaftcollapses. Urban expansion, or new highway construction, has led to damages related to these collapses.Class I and other earthen dams also pose a potential threat to adjacent, or downstream, communities(although not to the extent of floods or tornadoes). Many of these dams serve as up-ground reservoirs orrecreational sites. If not properly built or maintained, they may fail, leading to downstream flooding andstrained response capabilities.

Over 50 years, the “technical dependency” of the state and nation has become a fact of life. The increaseduse of synthetics has led to both storage and disposal problems. HAZMAT incidents remain as the mostcommon form of technological threat to Ohio, occurring almost daily. Incidents involving the shipmentand handling of low-level radioactive isotopes have also required state response actions over a period ofyears.

In addition to fossil fuels, electric power generation now uses nuclear technology. Three nucleargenerating facilities are sited in, or within five miles of, Ohio. The 50-mile ingestion pathway from theEnrico Fermi plant in Michigan also extends below the state line. In an emergency involving a singlepower plant, over 95,000 residents could be affected by accidental emissions. Response and recoveryactions could cost millions of public and private sector dollars.

Three separate U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities also pose a potential risk. The issue of on-sitewaste treatment and the removal from these sites poses a unique hazard for adjacent communities. In theevent of a problem, local subdivisions (and the state) would be engaged in extensive recovery actions.

Passenger and cargo airlines continue to cover the state’s airspace daily and railway accidents remain amatter of concern in areas of high traffic density. Like other hazards, transportation events may not occurregularly, but authorities in areas with a high density of air or rail traffic should weigh the potential of atransportation emergency.

Another significant concern has been planning the consideration of emerging diseases, such as Avian Flu.This event type would likely be regional if not global in nature. Unlike other events, this would notdirectly affect our infrastructure but strike the personnel needed to respond and recover. Large numbers ofpeople would likely expire from this type of event.

Since 1964, nearly 45 major emergency events have received a Presidential Declaration of Disaster. As aresult, Ohioans have received over hundreds of millions in federal assistance monies. The EMA hasassisted both the public and private sectors in obtaining this assistance.

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Although hazards may either decrease, or increase, from a strictly numerical standpoint, inflationary laborand material trends have caused overall recovery costs to rise. Each new event is more costly to the stateand nation than its predecessors.

As national mutual aid between states grows, our state may have to contend with hazards not necessarilyassociated with Ohio. For instance, Ohio sent numerous resources with the nearly 4,000 Ohio NationalGuard and civilian personnel to Hurricane Katrina and Rita in the fall/winter of 2005. Planning andprocedures are being developed and/or revised to deal with events occurring in other regions of thecountry.

An Ohio Profile

All geographical and political subdivisions of the state are vulnerable to some form of natural,technological, or other hazard. The effects of these (regardless of type or size) upon the state may varydue to differences in climate, geography, or land use. A better understanding of both hazards andassociated risks may be obtained by a brief examination of the characteristics of the state.

Geography and Climate

With a total land area of 40,948 square miles and a 2005 population in excess of 11,464,042, Ohio ranks35th in size and seventh in population in comparison with the balance of the U.Svi.

Topographically, the state presents a varied combination of landforms, which are diagonally dividedbetween the flat, glaciated, areas of the north - northwest to the unglaciated highlands in the south andsoutheast. The steeply incised landforms in the south and east have often contributed to flooding,mudslides, and other effects via rapid runoff from heavy rains and meltwater. In the north and west, thelevel topography has also received a share of flooding when heavy snowstorms have been followed byrapid meltwater discharges.

The state possesses a continental climate ranging through the year from cold, damp winters to warm,humid summers with prevailing westerly wind patterns. Annual temperature ranges vary from an averageof 37.0 degrees F to an average of 85.0 degrees F in July. Average annual precipitation, both rain andsnow, is 37.0 inches overall.

The Economy of Ohio (including transportation)

Ohio has a diversified economy based upon agriculture, extractive, manufacturing, and various serviceindustries or activities. The southeastern highlands are especially rich in mineral resources, and althoughreduced in recent years, extractive mineral and mining activities (coal, oil, gas, and aggregates) add anannual $2+ billion to the economy. Manufacturing contributes $245+ billion to the state’s economicpicture. Agriculture, extractive forestry, and services contribute billions more to the total. The balance ofeconomic activity consists of various research and development efforts.

An extensive transportation network supports this economy. State, federal and interstate highways formconnecting links to, or around, major metropolitan areas. Both large and medium-sized cities hostcommercial air traffic carriers. Although reduced in total mileage and traffic volume, rail lines still linkmining, industrial, and metropolitan centers. Waterborne commerce (via barge or ship) contributes tolocal economies along the Ohio River and the Lake Erie shore.

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A Historical Review of Disasters

For almost 200 years, the State of Ohio has experienced disasters varying in origins and effects. Some ofthe more noteworthy of these, which resulted in loss of life or economic damages, are listed in Figure l onthe following page:

Figure 2: Historical Events and Incidents

Name of Disaster Year Hazard/Event Type Location CasualtiesCholera Epidemic 1849/50 Bio/Epidemiological Statewide 5,000 +Rail Bridge Collapse 1876 Transportation Ashtabula 92Collinwood School Fire 1908 Fire Cleveland 17Spring Flood 1913 Flood S/SW Ohio 467Influenza Epidemic 1918 Bio/Epidemiological Statewide Multiple

ThousandsCleveland Clinic Fire 1929 Fire Cuyahoga 123Millwood Mine Disaster 1930 Mine Fire – Collapse Athens Co. 82Penitentiary Fire -Columbus

1930 Prison Fire Franklin Co. 322

Winter Flood 1937 Flood Statewide 250Gas Explosion & Fire 1944 Technological + Fire Cleveland 130Blizzard 1950 Winter Storm Statewide UnknownPenitentiary Fire -Columbus

1952 Prison Fire Franklin Co. 0

Winter/Spring Floods 1959 Flood Statewide UnknownNursing Home Fire 1963 Fire Marietta 95Lake Central/TWACrashes

1967 Transportation N&W Ohio 70 +(Combined)

Prison Riot - Columbus 1968 Other (Prison Riot) Franklin Co. 5Xenia Tornadoes 1974/ 2000 Tornadoes Greene Co. 35

(Combined)Blizzard 1978 Winter Storm Statewide 51Explosion/Fire -Miamisburg

1986 Technological + Fire Butler Co. 0

Train wreck-HAZMATSpill

1986 Transportation Miamisburg 0

Flash Flood – Shadyside 1990 Flash Flood Belmont Co. 26Prison Riot – Lucasville 1993 Other (Prison Riot) Scioto Co. 11Winter/Summer Floods 1996-97-98 Flood E & S Ohio 17

(Combined)

Winter Storms 2004-05 Severe Winter Weather Statewide 0

Source: Ohio Almanac/Contributing agencies/Ohio EMA (Plans)

The previous figure shows some of the historically serious events (with hazards) occurring since 1849 byevents and mortality statistics, but not property damages or other costs.

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Since l964, many events have received a Declaration of Disaster by the President of the United States(Figure 2). The figure below provides a breakout of the types of federal assistance, amounts, hazard typeas well as date with federal disaster number.

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nds

Page 15 of 39

These incidents have affected both people and property. Gubernatorial declarations have often beenissued for a number of other events, not qualifying for federal assistance via Presidential Declarations, as“Emergencies” or “Disasters”. This process serves to initiate coordinated state response efforts for areasrequiring assistance beyond local capabilities.

RISK ASSESSMENT, THE ANALYSIS PROCESS (METHODOLOGY, FACTORS, AND VALUES)

Recent events and changes in planning methodologies at the federal level have affected the generallyaccepted hazards. For instance, while the focus of federal planning and coordination is thrust towardsterrorism, it is the ninth rated hazard in total risk for Ohio. The following section describes the generalprocess by which risk was captured for each of the 27 hazards identified.

A hazard identification and risk analysis consists of two elements. The first is the identification of ahazard. The second element is an assessment of the vulnerability associated with that hazard. Research forthis analysis involved the collection of both historical and statistical data, including interviews withprofessionals in various disciplines. Information was then systematically analyzed for potential risk value.The risks associated with each hazard were further assessed using seven factors with numerical riskvalues. These seven factors are Frequency, Duration, Speed of Onset, Magnitude, Impact on Business,Impact on Human (people), and impact on Property. The Frequency, Duration, Speed of Onset andMagnitude comprise the profile of the hazard. Generally, these factors were considered an averageoccurrence of the hazard, not necessarily a catastrophic incidence. Vulnerability to an agent is based onthe factors of business, human, property. Numerical values were applied to provide a basis on which tocompare assigned weights among hazards and assigned risks. Factor value totals were added, allowinghazards to be compared against each other to obtain final rankings.

Frequency

A key factor in the hazardousness of particular agent is the frequency with which it occurs. Some hazardshave been relatively frequent in this state while others were only sporadic. For this hazard analysis, thefrequency with which an event occurs is based on the number of Gubernatorial Declarations associatedwith the hazard agent from 1991 through 2007. Using Gubernatorial Declarations provides a minimumthreshold of damage as well as provides a wider variety of hazards than utilizing the presidentialdeclarations. The only frustration with this profile is the lack of longevity of the sample. The Secretary ofState for Ohio only has records going back to 1991.

1 2 3 4_______________5None Low Medium High Excessive

If a hazard/event had no occurrences, it scored a one. If the hazard/event occurred from one to two times,it has a Low Probability of occurrence and scored a two. If it occurred three to five times, it has a MediumProbability and numerical score of three. If the hazard was experienced six to eight times, has a HighProbability and scored a four. If the hazard occurred nine or more times, it received an ExcessiveProbability rating and a score of five.

It is important to note that frequency was considered a key factor in determining the hazard profile. Tothat end, the score for this factor was multiplied by 1.5 to weight the score more importantly than otherfactors. See Appendix 1 for more information.

Page 16 of 39

Average Response Duration

Average Response Duration may be defined as “time on the ground” or the time-period of response to ahazard, or event. Transportation accidents may last a few hours whereas a tire fire may last a week or aflood several weeks. Duration, therefore, may not always be indicative of the degree of damage but itremains a factor.

1 2 3 4_________________5Minimal Short Medium Long Excessive

(Less than ½ day) (Less than 1 day) (Less than 1 week) (Less than 1 month) (Less than 1 Year)

Average Speed of Onset

Average Speed of Onset may affect all other factors do to lack of warning or time to prepare for impact.The lead-time required protecting lives and property varies greatly with each event. For instance, a winterstorm may develop so slowly that there is time to alert crews and emplace plows, but flash floods canoccur with no warning.

1 2 3 4Extended Medium Short Short-None

(Over 24 hours) (12 – 24 hours) (6 to 12 hours) (Minimal to no warning)

Average Magnitude (Impact)

Average Magnitude is the geographic dispersion of the hazard. For instance, how many counties would beimpacted by a flood or hazardous material incident? Similar to the Frequency, this hazard deemed moreimportant and therefore received a weighted value of 1.25 above the raw score. The score is based on thenumber of counties potentially impacted by an event.

1 2 3 4Negligible Limited Critical Catastrophic

(Less than 10) (10 to 25) (25 to 50) (More than 50)

Impact on Business

The Impact on Business refers to enduring economic impact of the hazard on the community by an event.A score of one compares to a shutdown of critical facilities for less than 24 hours. Two equals a completeshutdown of critical facilities for one week. A score of three means a complete shutdown of criticalfacilities for at least two weeks. A score of four equals a complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30days or more. This factor was developed and in keeping with the hazard analysis developed by theMitigation Branch at Ohio EMA in their Enhanced Mitigation Plan.

1 2 3 4(Shutdown of critical facilities for less than 24 hours)

(Complete shutdown of critical facilities for one week)(Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two

weeks) (Complete shutdownof critical facilities for30 days or more)

Page 17 of 39

Impact on Human (People)

This factor relates to the number of lives potentially lost to a particular hazard agent. This factor can varybetween jurisdictions based on economic, geographic, and demographics of the particular populations.Therefore, some generalization need be inflected on this factor. This factor was developed and in keepingwith the hazard analysis developed by the Mitigation Branch at Ohio EMA in their Enhanced MitigationPlan.

1 2 3 4Minimum Low Medium High

(Minor injuries) (Some injuries) (Multiple severe injuries) (Multiple deaths)

Impact on Property

This factor relates to the amount of property potentially lost to a particular hazard agent. This factor canvary between jurisdictions based on economics, geographic amount owned, and demographics of theparticular populations. Therefore, some generalization need be inflected on this factor. This factor wasdeveloped and in keeping with the hazard analysis developed by the Mitigation Branch at Ohio EMA intheir Enhanced Mitigation Plan.

1 2 3 4Minimum Low Medium High

(Less than 10% of property severely damaged)(More than 10% of property severely damaged)

(More than 25% of property damaged)(More than 50% ofproperty severely

damaged)

Factor/Value Overview

Frequency (Based on Past Gubernatorial Declarations from 1991 through 2007 data): 1 = none; 2 = 1-2;3 = 3-5; 4 = 6-8; 5 = 9 or more

Adjusted Frequency: Same scoring as above, however score is weighted for importance by factor of 1.5

Average Response Duration: 1 = Less than one-half day; 2 = Less than one day; 3 = Less than oneweek; 4 = Less than one month; 5 = Less than one year

Average Speed of Onset: 1 = more than 24 hrs warning; 2 = 12 to 24 hrs warning; 3 = 6 to 12 hrs; 4 =minimal or no warning

Average Magnitude (Average number of counties impacted): 1 = Negligible (Less than 10); 2 = Limited(10 to 25); 3=Critical (25 to 50); 4 = Catastrophic (More than 50)

Adjusted Average Magnitude: Same scoring as above, however score is weighted for importance byfactor of 1.25

Adjusted Total Score: Total of the Adjusted Frequency, Average Response Duration, Average Speed ofOnset, and Adjusted Average Magnitude

Page 18 of 39

Business: 1 = Low (Shutdown of critical facilities for less than 24 hours); 2 = Medium (completeshutdown of critical facilities for one week); 3 = High (complete shutdown of critical facilities for at leasttwo weeks); 4 = Excessive (complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more)

Human: 1 = Low (Minor injuries); 2 = Medium (Some injuries); 3 = High (Multiple severe injuries; 4 =Excessive (Multiple deaths)

Property: 1 = Low (Less than 10% of property severely damaged); 2 = Medium (More than 10% ofproperty severely damaged); 3 = High (More than 25% of property damaged); 4 = Excessive (More than50% of property severely damaged)

HAZARD ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT AND DETAILED HAZARD OVERVIEW

The analysis process discussed in the previous chapter was applied to the entire state employing thehistorical data described in Chapter I. A numerical rating value was developed for each factor(Attachment 1). Since the analysis incorporates data applicable to the entire state, the data for any specific(county) jurisdiction may differ.

Attachment 1 provides a multitude of information for each hazard. Categorized by NFPA 1600 typingeach hazard is noted by which reference documents it was cited. The attachment also shows the numericalscore for the hazard profile as well as vulnerability. The risk score is shown for each hazard.

Attachment 2 provides a rank order of the hazards from greatest to least in terms of total risk. Thisdocument also provides the hazard profile and vulnerability information.

Natural Hazards

Flood, Flash Flood, Seiche

Flood, Flash Flood, Seiche (Total Risk = 28.25), with the highest numerical rating, are the primarydisaster threat to life and property in Ohio. Although often confined to specific drainage systems orgeographic regions, floods can pose a threat to over 700 communities and a potential 5-8 million residentsin all 88 counties. Protective actions (evacuation/sheltering) may deplete both material and fiscalresources. Floodwaters have also damaged key infrastructure elements (roads, bridges and sanitaryfacilities). Infrastructure damages may also lead to an increase in infectious diseases in some affectedareas. Other collateral problems include power outages and transportation delays. Mudslides, acomponent of the 1990 Shadyside event, are often a flood related concern in the S-SE. The costs in labor,time and monies for flood-related mitigation and preparation actions may also be exceedingly high.

The state can experience four types of floods. Riverine (The overflow of rivers and streams from rains ormeltwater); Flash (A fast rising of streams or “dry-gulch” waters after heavy rain/snowmelt); Urban andSmall Stream (An overflow of storm sewers and streams after a heavy rainfall); and Coastal (Floodsalong the Lake Erie shoreline, often associated with severe storms and/or seiche waves)

In a space of 16 months, in the late 1990s, two major floods affected the state. The first, in February 1997,caused flash and riverine flooding in 18 southern counties. In June 1998, a varied weather pattern withtornadoes, severe storms, and flash flooding struck 23 counties on a northwest to southeast track. Theseevents affected thousands of residents and caused millions of dollars in business and residential losses.The following chart provides a comparison of these events:

Page 19 of 39

Figure 4: Flood Damage Comparison Chart for Ohioviii (1997-98)

Critical Element 1997 1998Overall Financial Impact $180 Million $184.3 MillionFederally Declared Counties 18 23Casualties (Deaths) 5 12Residents Evacuated 20,000 9,000

Windstorm, Tornadoes

Windstorms and Tornadoes (Total Risk = 25.25).are the second greatest threat to the state. These violent,rotary windstorms can attain speeds up to 300+ mph and are often accompanied, or followed, by severethunderstorms. They may occur anywhere at any time of the year (most frequently in spring or earlysummer) with unpredictable, severe effects. Other severe storms, not officially classed as tornadoes, maybe almost as violent and damaging. The potential for loss of life and property is high, coupled with anability to overwhelm most response capabilities.

Effects vary according to wind speed, duration on the ground, and topography. Losses over a 30-yearperiod are estimated in excess of $110- million. From 1950 to present, 918 tornadoes were reported inOhio. The Lorain and Xenia storms cost over 30 lives and property damages were calculated in the multi-millions of dollars. As in the case of floods, recovery costs and times may extend over years.

On April 9, 1999, a tornado in Clinton, Hamilton, and Warren Counties, killed 4 and injured 42 whiledestroying or damaging over 400 dwellings. Fiscal losses were estimated at $82- million for the storm,which the NWS termed as the most devastating in terms of casualties since the l985 event, which killed18 Ohioans.

Figure 5: Ohio's Tornado History (1950-99)

Page 20 of 39

ADAM S

LAW RENCE

PIKEJACKSON

GALLIA

MEIGS

VINTON

ATHENS

WASHINGTON

BROWN

HIGHLANDHAMILTON

PREBLEGREENE

MONTGOMERY

FAYETTE

MADISO N

CLARK

MIAMIDARKE

ROSS

HOCKING

FRANKLIN

DELAW ARE

UNION

LICKING

MERCERAUGLAIZE

`

ALLEN

VAN WERT

PAULDING

M ORGANNOBLE

MUSKINGUMGUERNSEY

MARION

MORROW

KNO X

HENRY

PUTNAM HANCOCK

WYANDOT CRAW FORD

SENECA

SANDUSKY

WOOD

OTTAW A

SHELBYLOGAN

CHAM PAIGN

HARDIN

COSHOCTO N

HOLMES

RICHLAND

ASHLAND WAYNESTARK

TUSCARAW ASHARRISON

BELMONT

JEFFERSO N

COLUMBIANA

MAHONING

HURON

ERIELORAIN

CUYAHOGA

SUM MIT

PO RTA GE

TRUMBULLGEAUG A

ASHTABULA

LAKE

WILLIAMS

DEFIANCE

BUTLER

CLERMO NT

SCIOTO

CLINTON

PERRY

PICKAWAY

CARROLL

FAIRFIELD

FULTO N

MONROE

MEDINA

W ARREN

H istory of O hio Tornadoes1950-99

12/0

12/15

1/0

13/3

9/1

9/1

15/14/3

3/1

22/95

12/19

9/017/2

14/0

8/0

2/03/1

5/0

9/03/0

5/1

15/1

2/04/1

0/0

5/1

2/0

1/2

5/0

5/0

11/12

17/7

21/011/0

6/2

4/1

15/2

11/010/0

14/5

4/18Lucas12/1

8/0

12/2

8/8

6/4

7/2

9/5

13/0

11/186/0

13/0

9/0

13/412/2

4/2

15/6

5/4

7/05/04/3

15/813/0

23/2

13/1

8/1

4/0

14//0

10/07/0

8/1 7/212/38

6/1

13/1

11/12

13/0

10/3

10/1

13/015/2

10/1

7/0

3/0

3/0

13/7

4/0

0/0

Source: N W S

Emerging DiseasesEmerging diseases, such as plague, smallpox, anthrax, West Nile Virus, foot and mouth disease, SARS,pandemic influenza BSE (mad cow disease) are becoming increasingly prevalent on the world stage. Thistype of event would likely be regional if not global in nature. Pandemic Influenza has become a planningpriority for the state of Ohio through actions such as former Governor Taft’s Cabinet Advisory #05-235as well as at the federal level. Likewise, certain health conditions such as the MRSA staph infection arecoming to prevalence in the media.

Unlike many other hazards, this would not directly impact and cause failure to our infrastructure butstrike the personnel needed to respond and recover. Large numbers of people would likely expire fromthis type of event. Examples such as the 1918 Influenza Pandemics show the multitudes of people thatcould die from an event of this type.

Earthquakes

Earthquakes (Total Risk = 24.25) are defined as a rapid motion of the ground accompanied by shaking,faulting (surface and subsurface) and ground failure. Earthquakes from two points affect Ohio: eventshaving epicenters within the state, and those occurring along the New Madrid, Missouri Fault.

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Over 120 earthquakes with Ohio epicenters have occurred since 1776. Fifteen of these events have causedminor to moderate damage with the largest earthquake registering 5.4 magnitude in 1937. Fortunately,these events have not resulted in fatalities, only minor injuries, over the course of time.

Seismic activity is concentrated in, but not confined to, three areas of the state, the most active area, withat least 40 earthquake events since 1875, is the Anna Seismogenic Zone centered in Shelby County,(western Ohio). Many other events occurring around Lake County, or in the southeast, can cause major tomoderate damage. These areas rank as the second and third most active earthquake zones within the state.

Other counties with documented earthquake epicenters include Adams, Allen, Ashland, Ashtabula,Athens, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clermont, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Greene, Hamilton,Hancock, Hardin, Highland, Hocking, Jackson, Lake, Lucas, Marion, Meigs, Mercer, Montgomery,Muskingum, Perry, Pike, Portage, Preble, Putnam, Richland, Ross, Sandusky, Scioto, Seneca, Shelby,Summit, Washington, Williams, Wood, and Wyandot.

The state would also be affected by events generated by the New Madrid Fault, extending from Arkansasto Indiana along the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. This fault generated the most powerfulearthquakes ever documented in the Continental US in a four-month period during 1811 and 1812. Ifearthquakes of this intensity occur again, devastating damages in our southwestern counties could beexpected.

Figure 6: Earthquake Epicenters in Ohio and Adjacent Areas

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Figure 7: Effects of a Major New Madrid Earthquake in Ohio

MercalliIntensity

Effects Counties Potentially Affected

VI Felt by all, indoors & outdoors. Manypeople frightened and excited. Liquids setin strong motion. With slight damage inpoorly built structures. Fallen & crackedplaster with a considerable quantity ofbroken dishes & glassware.

Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Crawford,Cuyahoga, Defiance, Erie, Geauga,Hancock, Hardin, Henry, Huron, Lake,Logan, Lorain, Mahoning, Marion, Medina,Mercer, Morrow, Ottawa, Paulding, Portage,Putnam, Richland, Sandusky, Seneca,Shelby, Stark, Summit, Trumbull, VanWert,Wayne, Wood, & Wyandot.(Approx. 4 million people in 36 counties)

VII Many people find it difficult to stand.Slight damage in ordinary buildings.,Considerable amounts of fallen plaster &numerous broken windows & fallencornices

Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Champaign,Clark, Columbiana, Coshocton, Darke,Delaware, Franklin, Fulton, Gallia,Guernsey, Harrison, Holmes, Jackson,Jefferson, Knox, Lawrence, Licking, Lucas,

Page 23 of 39

Madison, Meigs, Miami, Monroe, Morgan,Noble, Tuscarawas, Union, Washington, andWilliams(Approx. 3 million people in 31 counties)

VIII Alarm approaches panic. Branches oftrees broken. Changes in the flow of well& spring water. Considerable damage inordinary substantial buildings. Fallenwalls, factory stacks, towers, &monuments. Heavy furniture overturned.

Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton,Fairfield, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton,Highland, Hocking, Montgomery,Muskingum, Pickaway, Perry, Pike, Preble,Ross, Scioto, Vinton, & Warren(Approx. 3 million people in 21 counties)

Source: U. S. Geological Survey, Maximum Seismic Interactions Map for New Madrid Seismic Zone;Algermission & Hopper

Collateral effects from an earthquake could be extensive and may include hazardous material spills,landslides, subsidence, dam failures, fires, groundwater contamination, pipeline breaks, infrastructuredisruptions, epidemics, floods, along with theft/looting.

Snow, Ice, Hail and Sleet

Snow, Ice Hail and Sleet (Hazard Rating = 22.25) are the third leading weather-related threat to the state.These include heavy snowfall with extreme cold and ice, or a combination of the three.

A total of 304 Winter Storms from 1950 to present are reported by the National Weather Service. Thestorms of 1913, 1940, 1950, 1977, 1978, 1994, 1996, and 2004/2005 were especially damaging. Somewinter storms have occurred in specific sectors of the state; south/southeast (1984); east/northeast (1993);or south/southeast (1994). However, the storms of 1950 and 1978 were statewide in nature and of aseverity that required massive state/federal response and recovery efforts.

In addition to structural and power line damages, these storms have a potential for collateral effects;isolation and economic disruption (from roadway and business closings) along with ice dams and floodscaused by the melting process.

Landslide, Mudslide, Subsidence

Landslide, Mudslide and Subsidence (Total Risk = 19.25) are the next major natural threat. Subsidence isdefined as a drop in the earth’s surface due to a collapse in bedrock or other underlying material (coalpillars, rock, etc) into underground mines or other open space.

Land or Mudslides are defined as downward and outward movements of slopes due to rains or meltingsnow with accompanying damage and debris deposition. They may also include sudden collapses ofmines, tunnel walls, or supports with resulting damage to surface structures or features (buildings andhighways).

Landslides include three types. A Rotational Slump occurs when weak rock or sediment moves as a massin a slow or imperceptible movement. A more common event, Earthflow, involves rock, sediment, orweathered surface materials moving down slope in a mass. Rock fall is seen as the most common anddangerous form of movement. Rock from a cliff or cut will fall onto roadways or structures. This action iscommon during periods of late winter or early spring thawing. Traffic vibration, undercut slopes,increased weight on slopes, or the removal of vegetation and ensuing erosion may also contribute to theseevents. Events have been traced back to 1923 at various sites. They occur mainly through the Ohio or

Page 24 of 39

Scioto River Valleys, or elsewhere in the eastern portion of the state with some occurring along theeastern Lake Erie Shoreline (Figure 7).

During and after WWII, when the demand for mineral resources was high, the state had over 700 activecoalmines. As the supply of coal in many mines was exhausted, the mines were abandoned with little, orno, preparation. Supporting pillars of coal in shaft mines were mined away prior to closings. In the mid-1990s, over 6,000 closed underground mines were estimated to exist in 37 counties with over 61,000acres of land affected by closings or site abandonment. Abandoned mines have also occasionallycollapsed with damage to surface structures (e.g. Interstate 70 in Guernsey County) or costlyinfrastructure damage. Subsidence and landslides, particularly during the l997 - 98 floods, have also led tothe temporary relocation of farmsteads, housing units, or businesses.

Landslides and mudslides affecting roadways have also led to costly repair actions by state and localgovernments. It is estimated that repair or replacement costs could reach $9 million or more if a majorhighway is involved.

Figure 8: Ohio Landslides

ODOT District No. District Counties Average AnnualSlides

8 Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton,Preble, & Warren

15

9 Adams, Brown, Highland, Jackson, Lawrence,Pike, Ross, & Scioto

12

10 Athens, Gallia, Hocking, Meigs, Monroe,Morgan, Noble, Vinton & Washington

180-200

11 Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Harrison,Holmes, Jefferson & Tuscarawas

20

Source: ODOT (Div. of Engineering Policy)

Figure 9: Ohio Subsidence and Landslides

Page 25 of 39

Subsidence and landslide zones shown in red

Human Caused Hazards

Building/Structure Collapse

Building/Structure Collapse (Total Risk = 24.75) is the primary human caused and fourth ranked hazardin the state. The most common type of collapse in Ohio is bridges. Several bridge collapses have occurredin recent years requiring a Gubernatorial Declaration. In 1996, a bridge collapsed in Belmont County.Ohio has over 42,000 bridges on its highways. Our state has the second largest number of bridges in thecountry.

One notable bridge collapse occurred in Ohio. On December 15, 1967, the 1000 ft. span Silver Bridgeover the Ohio River collapsed killing 46 people. The bridge connected the towns of Point Pleasant, WestVirginia and Managua, Ohio.

Water Control Structure (Dam/Levee Failure)

Water Control Structure (Dam/Levee Failure) (Total Risk = 22) is the second human caused and seventhranked hazard in the state. It is defined as a gradual or immediate collapse or failure of water impoundingsystems or structures, resulting in downstream damages.

Dams in Ohio have been divided into four classes; I, II III IV, based upon a downstream threat potential.The failure of a Class I dam would result in the probable loss of life or pose a serious hazard to health,

Page 26 of 39

property and high-value industrial or commercial properties or public utilities in the below-daminundation plain. A Class I dam is one with a volume capacity of over 5,000 acre-feet or a height greaterthan 60 feet. Although damages to Class I dams pose the greatest threat to human life, Class II and IIIunits could also pose a similar threat if affected.

Figure 10: Class I Dams in Ohio

ADAM S

LAW RENCE

PIKEJA CKSON

GALLIA

MEIGS

VINTON

ATHEN S

W ASHINGTON

BROWN

HIGHLANDHAMILTON

PREBLEGREENE

MONTGOMER Y

FAYETTE

MADISON

CLARK

MIAMIDARKE

ROSS

HOCKING

FRANKLIN

DELAW ARE

UNION

LICKING

MERCERAUGLAIZE

`

ALLEN

VAN WERT

PAULDING

M ORGANNOBLE

MUSKIN GUMGUERNSEY

MARION

MORROW

KNOX

HENRY

PUT NAM HANCOCK

W YANDOT CRAW FORD

SENECA

SANDUSKY

W OOD

OTTAWA

SHELBYLOGAN

CHAM PAIGN

HARDIN

COSHOC TO N

HOLMES

RICHLAND

ASHLAND WAYNESTARK

TUSCARAW ASH ARRISON

BELMONT

JEFFERSON

COLUMBIANA

MAHONING

HUR ON

ERIELORAIN

CUYAHOGA

SUM MIT

PORTA GE

TRUMBU LLGEAU GA

ASHTABULA

LAKE

W ILLIAM SLUCAS

DEFIANCE

BUTLER

CLERMO NT

SCIOTO

CLINTON

PERRY

PICKAW AY

C A

R

ROLL

FAIRFIELD

FULTON

MONROE

MEDINA

W ARR EN

C LA SS I D A M S IN O H IO

18

20

4

0

0

10

02

5

9

58

4

822

16

511

61

2

110

1

4

0

3

8

85

4

0

1

3

12

11

6

3

4 113

3

3

3

0

1

40

3

31

1 57

8

14

314

1585

2

1

11

7

53

1013

7

12

1212

4

63

4 13

8

6

5

10

6

4

2

8

SO U R C E :O H IO D E PT . O F N A T U R A L R E SO U R C E S

The state does not currently have a means of determining downstream populations and/or potentialmonetary losses in case of failure. A review of similar events in other states illustrates the possibleconsequences: Buffalo Creek, W.Va. suffered 125 casualties and $400 million in property damages. LawnLake, Colorado incurred three casualties and $21 million in property damages. The town of Tococca,Georgia suffered 39 casualties and $30 million in property damages.

Product Defect or Contamination

Product Defect or Contamination Incident (Total Risk = 21.75) can occur as a manufacturing orproduction error; design of; or the materials used in the products content; construction, finish, packaging,warning, and/or instructions or product. In 1982 and 1986, a person contaminated Tylenol with cyanide.Several people died because of product tampering.

Terrorism (CBRNE and Cyber)

Page 27 of 39

Terrorism Incidents (Total Risk = 20) are defined by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as the“…unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate, or coerce a government,civilian population, or any segment thereof in the furtherance of political and social objectives”. Thevictims of terrorism may not always, however, be the intended, or most concerned, elements of society.

Although events such as the World Trade Center Bombing/Destruction (1993 & 2001) and OklahomaCity bombing (1995) did not occur in Ohio, the threat, real or implied, to employ terrorism in this state,remains. Threats often involved the employment of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), to includebombs and pathogens, and can be directed at targets in both rural and urban-industrial settings. In 1995,an Ohio resident with ties to unorganized militias was able to order, via mail, samples of Plague bacilli.Although that attempt was thwarted, the events of 2001 show that the bio-terrorist threat remains viable.

Explosion/Fire

Explosion/Fire (Total Risk = 19.75) can occur at any time. Cleveland is noted by fire historians for theCollinwood School Fire that killed 17 as well as the Cleveland Clinic Fire that killed 123. Because of thespeed of onset of fire as well as the potential human toll, this hazard scored higher than many other hazardevents.

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ATTACHMENT 1: DETAILED HAZARD ANALYSIS

Reference to Hazard + Hazard Profile + Vulnerability to Hazard

Notes: 27 Hazards categories are currently identified for the Ohio EMA HIRA* = Slight variation to NFPA 1600

Hazards from NFPA 1600 NOT included for analysis in the HIRA:Ancillary Support Equipment Failure (support and lab-based equipment), Avalanche, Discrimination, Disinformation (deliberate), Dust Storm,

Electromagnetic Pulse (intensely fluctuating magnetic field), Enemy Attack/War, Famine, Financial Issues (Economic Depression, Inflation, Financial SystemCollapse), Geomagnetic Storm (temporary disturbance of atmosphere causing communications disruption among other things), Glacier, Harrassment,Hurricane, Iceberg, Insurrection (revolt), Misinformation (non-deliberate), Sabotage, Sand Storm, Strike or Labor Dispute, Tidal Surge, Tropical Cyclone,Tsunami, Water Spout, Workplace Violence, and Volcano

X = Designated for future Catastrophic planning purposes

Hazard Profile Information: (Adjusted Maximum Score: 21.5 [Maximum Score: 18])Frequency (Based on Past Gub. Dec. on 1991 through 2007 data): 1 = None; 2 = 1-2; 3 = 3-5; 4 = 6-8; 5 = 9 or moreAjusted Frequency: Same scoring as above, however score is weighted for importance by factor of 1.5;Average Response Duration: 1 = Less than one-half day; 2 = Less than one day; 3 = Less than one week; 4 = Less than

one month; 5 = Less than one yearAverage Speed of Onset: 1 = more than 24 hrs warning; 2 = 12 to 24 hrs warning; 3 = 6 to 12 hrs; 4 = minimal or no warningAverage Magnitude (Average number of counties impacted): 1 = Negligible (Less than 10); 2 = Limited (10 to 25); 3=Critical

(25 to 50); 4 = Catastrophic (More than 50)Adjusted Average Magnitude: Same scoring as above, however score is weighted for importance by factor of 1.25Adjusted Total Score: Total of the Adjusted Frequency, Average Response Duration, Average Speed of Onset, and

Adjusted Average Average Magnitude

Note: Please see the Ohio EMA Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for more information on the profile.

Vulnerability Information:Total Potential Damage: (Maximum Score of 12)Business: 1 = Low (Shutdown of critical facilities for less than 24 hours); 2 = Medium (complete shutdown of critical facilitiesfor one week); 3 = High (complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks); 4 = Excessive (complete shutdownof critical facilities for 30 days or more)Human: 1 = Low (Minor injuries); 2 = Medium (Some injuries); 3 = High (Multiple severe injuries; 4 = Excessive (Multiple deaths)Property: 1 = Low (Less than 10% of property severly damaged); 2 = Medium (More than 10% of property severely damaged); 3 = High

(More than 25% of property damaged); 4 = Excessive (More than 50% of property severely damaged)

Note: Please see the Ohio EMA Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for more information on the vulnerability.

Total Risk: (Maximum Score: 33.5)Combination of adjusted Total Score and Total Vulnerability

Human Caused

Accidental

Air/Water Pollution, Contamination

CatastrophicPrevious OEMA

HIRANational Planning

Scenarios

National PlanReview

URS HIRAProvided for EMP

EnhancedMitigation Plan NFPA 1600

X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

5 1

Total RiskAvg PropertyAvg HumanAvg BusinessTotal Potential

Damage13111 3

Reference(s) ofHazard:

HazardProfile:

Vulnerability toHazard:

Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

2.5

Adjusted Total:

10

FrequencyMagnitude

(Impact)Not scored foradjusted profile

Not scored foradjusted profile

Monday, December 03, 2007

Building/Structure Collapse



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 4


Damage24.75344 11


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

4.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

13.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Communications Systems Interruptions



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage17.75112 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

6.25

Adjusted Total:

12.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Energy/Power/Utility failure



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage17112 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

4.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

2.5

Adjusted Total:

11.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Explosion/Fire



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage19.75242 8


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

4.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

11.75

FrequencyMagnitude




Fuel/Resource Shortage



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 2


Damage17.25111 3


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

4.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

14.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Hazardous Material (explosive, flammable liquid, flammable gas, flammable solid, oxidizer, poison,radiological, corrosive) spill or release



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage16.25222 6


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

3

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

10.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Transportation Accident



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

1 4


Damage11.75121 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

7.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Water Control Structure (dam/levee failure)



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

3 3


Damage22444 12


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

2.5

Adjusted Total:

10

FrequencyMagnitude



Intentional


Civil Disturbance, Public Unrest, Mass Hysteria, Riot



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 3


Damage16.75342 9


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

9.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Criminal Activity (vandalism, arson, theft, fraud, embezzlement, data theft, and physical orinformation security breach)*



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage12.75121 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

8.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Product Defect or Contamination (man. or prod. error; design of, or the materials used in, the product,product's contents; construction, finish, packaging, warning, and/or instructions or product



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 1


Damage21.75432 9


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

6.25

Adjusted Total:

11.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Terrorism (CBRNE and cyber)



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X XX XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 4


Damage20242 6


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

2.5

Adjusted Total:

12

FrequencyMagnitude



Natural

Biological


Animal or Insect Infestation or Damage



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

5 1


Damage15.25121 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

11.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Emerging Diseases [plague, smallpox, anthrax, West Nile virus, foot and mouth disease, SARS,pandemic influenza, BSE (Mad Cow Disease)]



Scenarios

National PlanReview



XX XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

5 2


Damage24.75442 10


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

6.25

Adjusted Total:

13.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Geological

Earthquake (7.9 magnitude)



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X XX XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 4


Damage24.25344 11


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

13.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Landslide, Mudslide, Subsidence



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

3 4


Damage19.25122 5


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

6

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

14.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Meteorological


Drought



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

5 1


Damage15.25211 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

11.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Extreme Temperatures (heat, cold)



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

4 2


Damage19.5142 7


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

5

Adjusted Total:

12.5

FrequencyMagnitude



Fire (forest, range, urban, wildland, urban interface)



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage15.75232 7


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

8.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Flood, Flash Flood, Seiche



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

3 2


Damage28.25444 12


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

7.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

16.25

FrequencyMagnitude




Lightning Strikes



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

1 4


Damage111 3


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

1.25

Adjusted Total:

7.75

FrequencyMagnitude



Snow, Ice, Hail Sleet



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

3 1


Damage22.25142 7


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

7.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

15.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Windstorm, Tornado



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X XX

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage25.25242 8


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

7.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

17.25

FrequencyMagnitude



Technological

None

Central Computer, Mainframe, Software, or Application Failure



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage14112 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

2.5

Adjusted Total:

10

FrequencyMagnitude




Energy/Power/Utility



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage15.25112 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

3.75

Adjusted Total:

13

FrequencyMagnitude



Telecommunications



Scenarios

National PlanReview



X X

Avg ResposeDuration

Avg Speed ofOnset

2 4


Damage17.75112 4


HazardProfile:


Hazard Type:

Adj. Frequency:

1.5

Adj. AvgMagnitude:

6.25

Adjusted Total:

12.75

FrequencyMagnitude




Page 37 of 39

ATTACHMENT 2: HAZARD RANKING SUMMARY SHEET

The purpose of this sheet is offer a starting direction for planning. It details the hazard rank by hazardprofile and hazard vulnerability as well as shows a theoretical ‘worst’ hazard to least.

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Page 39 of 39

i This HIRA is an update and slight variation of the document produced by John Spoff by Rich Weber. In manyareas, his work is current and remains unchanged.ii See Ohio Revised Code 5502.22 accessed athttp://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll/PORC/245eb/24748/2478c/24792?fn=document-iii See Ohio Revised Code 5502.21 (I) accessed athttp://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll/PORC/245eb/24748/2478c/2478d?iv See Ohio Revised Code 5502.21 (J) accessed athttp://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll/PORC/245eb/24748/2478c/2478d?v See National Fire Protection Association. NFPA 1600: Standard on Disaster/Emergency Management andBusiness Continuity Programs, 2007 Edition, Pp. 1600-5vi Taken from the US Census Bureau information on April 10, 2007vii As reported by the Ohio EMA Disaster Recovery Branch, information accurate as of April 6, 2007viii Sourced by Ohio EMA Disaster Recovery Branch materials