Harnessing the Indian Shale Gas Potential Strategic Concerns & Points to ponder

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Harnessing the Indian Shale Gas Potential Strategic Concerns & Points to ponder. Dr.V.K.Rao. IUGF2013. Disclaimer. The views and opinions expressed in the presentation material are of speaker/author only and not necessarily of the Organisation he is working. Concept Transformation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Harnessing the Indian Shale Gas Potential

    Strategic Concerns & Points to ponderDr.V.K.RaoIUGF2013

  • Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in the presentation material are of speaker/author only and not necessarily of the Organisation he is working

  • Concept TransformationIn pursuit of conventional Oil/Gas Exploration over the years, Geologists regarded Shales as:Source Rock by virtue of the richness of organic material content, its thermal maturity, hydrocarbon generation potential and geographic spread over large areasCap Rock by virtue of their impermeable nature and compactness thus acting as good seal

  • 3856456925873962566113811069122562410421404396World Shale Gas Potential (Tcf)Rogner,HH ModifiedTotal: 22,016 Tcf GIP

  • Middle East, ,Former Soviet Union &Asia Pacific are excluded

  • Shale Gas Recov. Reserves (Tcf)

    EIA World Shale Gas Resources (Assessment of 14 Regions)

    Tcf

  • Shale Gas Potential in six Continents

    Tcf

  • Strategic Compulsions

    Rapidly growing Gas marketsWidening Demand-Supply gapIndia has high Natural Gas pricesIncreasing dependency on LNG importsNascent CBM industryRising Energy ConsumptionTransnational Pipelines-indecisions & impedimentsRising Energy Import bills with alarming consequences

  • In Asia-Pacific Region the gas market rise is around 6.5% p.a.The world average is around 2.5 % onlyWhile the India Gas market rise is more than 7%India-Gas Market Rise

    Chart1

    179.17

    196.649.7505162695

    225.5214.6867371847

    262.0716.2069882937

    279.436.6241843782

    306.419.6553698601

    341.0811.314904866

    380.9511.6893397443

    MMSCMD

    Percentage rise

    Years

    MMSCMD/%age rise

    Gas Market Rise

    Sheet1

    Gas Demand MMscmd

    YearMMm3d

    2007-08179.17

    2008-09196.649.750516269517.47

    2009-10225.5214.686737184728.88

    2010-11262.0716.206988293736.55

    2011-12279.436.624184378217.36

    2012-13306.419.655369860126.98

    2013-14341.0811.31490486634.67

    2014-15380.9511.689339744339.87

    Sheet1

    MMSCMD

    Percentage rise

    Years

    MMSCMD/%age rise

    Gas Market Rise

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • EXPANDING GAP.

  • The Indian Energy ScenerioIndias Energy Consumption has been increasing at a rapid rate due to population growth and economic development(GDP Growth rate @8% pa)Coal ,Oil and Gas are Primary Energy sourcesAlthough intense efforts are made to increase indigenous Oil/Gas production,we could meet only
  • Natural Gas Demand-Supply Projections for India

  • Source :McKinsey & Co. presentation slide

  • 12-14$/MMBTU

  • Growing Dependancy on LNG Imports

    (MMTPA) LNG Imports are estimated to cost US$ 21 billion by 2021

    OperationalUnder CommissioningPlanned

    LNG Terminal Capacity (MMTPA) Dahej 5Dahej Exp 5Shell Hazira 3.5Dabhol 5.5Kochi 2.5Mundra 6.5Mangalore5Ennore 5Pipavav5Haldia2.5Kandla2Gangavaram5Total 52.5

    Chart1

    13.5

    21

    46.5

    52.5

    INDIA

    Sheet1

    2005-062010-112015-162020-21

    INDIA13.52146.552.5

  • CBM- nascent stagesA total 33 Blocks are awarded in 4 Bid RoundsTotal CBM area covered 18,540 sq kmsPrognosticated Resources 65.7 tcfOnly 8.39 tcf inplace is establishedCommercial production of 0.25 MMSCMD only is achieved till dateProjected Production of 7.4 MMSCMD by 2014-15

  • Transnational Pipelines

  • Transnational Pipe lines

    Pipe lineSegmentLength (kms)Cost (BnUS$)Capacity MMSCM/DayIndias ShareMMm3/day RemarksIran Pakistan-India 27257.515030-40 Yet to materialise

    Turkeministan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India17357.69038.0 SignedMyanmar-Bangladesh-India9001.06018.0 Could not materialise

  • As per working group of Petroleum & Natural Gas ,Govt.of India

    the Domestic Gas Production during the period 2016-17 to 2021- 22 will not increase significantly the demand for gas in the country will be met by import of LNG to the tune of 130 MMSCMD i.e. 40% of then demand in 2013-14 and will increase to 184 MMSCMD i.e. 45% of then demand expected in 2016-17. Thereafter, the country may import both LNG and cross-country piped gas to the tune of 258 MMSCMD or 57% of then demand in 2017-18 to2021-22.As per World Energy Outlook Report(2009)-India will be the only country in the world investing 6.0% of its GDP on Oil /Gas importsThis is a very serious situation as during the period 2025-2030 the import of Crude Oil may reach 90% and import of Natural Gas can be between 54-60%. Indian Economy can not sustain the projected Energy importsThis may have disastrous consequences for countrys Security and Foreign Exchange position.

  • Projection of Demand & ImportSource: Dr. A. Chandra

  • Points to PonderVarience in Resource estimatesAnalogy with US BasinsDo we need a separate Shale gas Blocks bid Round and Shale Gas Policy?

  • Varience in Resource EstimatesAgencies and Estimates

  • Potential Shale Gas Basins1. Cambay Basin2. Gondwana Basin3. Assam-Arakan Basin4. Krishna-Godavari Basin5. Cauvery Basin6. Vindhyan Basin7. Bengal Basin8. Rajasthan Basin

  • EasternSchlumberger Resource:600-2000 TcfOther ExpertsResources: 540 Tcf8 Potential basinsRecov:140 TcfNGRI, IndiaResources:527 TcfRecov:260 TcfPetrotech Veteran ForumRecov: 130 Tcf5 BasinsShale Gas EstimatesMcKinsey ReportRecov:100TcfEIA ,USAOnly 4 Basins studiedRisked GIP:293TcfRecov:63 TcfUSGS,USAOnly 3 basins studiedRecov: 6.1 TcfShale Gas Resource EstimatesDamodar Valley Basin(Pilot Wells) :48 Tcf (GIIP)

  • EIA study - IndiaEstimates in Jan 2011, quote as stating Indian resources in the range of 600-2100 TCF

  • Shale Characteristics of Cambay Basin* Source: US EIA Report

    Discovered oil & Gas Fields and Proven Source Rock Potential

    FormationThickness(m)TOC(%)VRo(%)Gas Conc.Bcf/mi2Kerogen TypeOlpad340-27001.5-4.00.60-0.75No DataII & IIIOlder Cambay Shale500-19001.5-4.00.75-1.20231 *II & IIIYounger Cambay Shale520-15001.00-4.000.75-0.85231 *II & IIIKalol200-300No Data0.75No DataTarapur60-4001.00-1.20.53No Data II & III

    Area (Sq Kms)No. of Oil & Gas fieldsInplace HC Volumes(MMT)O+OEGSource Rock SequencesDepth Range (m)Prognosticated Resource Potential (TCF)51000>1102050Cambay Shales

    Tarapur shales1500-2500217

  • Shale Charecteristics of Krishna-Godavari Basin* Source: US EIA Report

    FormationThickness(m)TOC(%)VRo(%)Gas Conc.Bcf/mi2Kerogen TypeVadaparru>4002.00-3.00??No DataII & IIIPalakollu>5000.60-23.0??0.35-0.40No DataII & IIIRaghavapuram>18001.00-4.000.90-1.30143 *II & IIIKommugudem >9001.20-30.00??1.00-1.30156 *II & III

  • Shale characteristics of Assam-Arakan Basin

    * Source: US EIA Report

    Formation/Gp.Thickness(m)TOC(%)VRo(%)Gas Conc.Bcf/mi2Kerogen TypeUpper Disang250-4001.69-4.000.90-1.94120II & IIIKopili>5001.00-6.200.92-1.44No DataII & IIIJenam900-12002.50-4.500.64-1.20No DataII & IIIBhuban800-10000.31-1.360.90-1.00120II & IIIBokabil400-10000.64-2.400.57-0.62No DataII & III

  • Shale Characteristics of Cauvery Basin* Source: US EIA Report

    FormationThickness(m)TOC(%)VRo(%)Gas Conc.Bcf/mi2Kerogen TypeKaraikal250-7500.31-2.781.15-1.20143 *II & IIIPortnovo200-3400.31-4.760.65-0.79No DataII & IIIKudavasal800-11001.68-2.000.34-0.55143*II & IIISattapadi300-5001.50-1.751.00-1.12No DataII & III

  • Gondwana Basins

    Lower Permian to Triassic age Gondwana sediments consisting of fluviatile to Lacustrine deposits of sandstones, shales and coal measuresResource play is Barren Measure shales TOC : 4-10% T max : 440-480 VRo : 1-1.2% Kerogen : Type III

  • Shale Characteristics of Barren Measure Fm.* Source: US EIA Report

    Sub Basin.Thickness(m)TOC(%)VRo(%)Gas Conc.Bcf/mi2Kerogen TypeSouth Rewa150-8005.06-14.72??0.40-0.60123 * IIIDamodar 900-10004.00-10.00??1.00-1.20123 * IIIKaranpura450-500ONGC Drilled Pilot wells in Damodar & Karanpura Sub Basins Pranhita Godavari400-5005.00-6.410.67-1.00No Data III

  • Shales in Stratigraphy

    Ganorgarh and Sirbu shales

    Chakaria Olive shales

  • Shale characteristics of Vindhyan Basin

    FormationThickness(m)TOC%VRo %KerogenTypeChakaria Olive shale3200.60-6.04

    No DataII & IIIHinota shale900.56-3.89II & IIIRewa shale2250.07-0.40II&IIIPulkova shale21035.0-37.85II & IIISuket shale1000.04-0.37No DataII & IIIGanurgarh Shale75No Data

  • Why are they Vary?

    Various Agencies have projected the Resources based on their perceptions of Indian Shales. Thus The resource prognostications are varied and are subjective.Lack of Shale gas specific laboratory investigations/dataCrucial parameters on Indian shales in terms of their heterogeneity, gas content, TOC, VRo, diagenesis, brittleness etc are not available Shale isopachs, dispositions and TOC ,VRo and Gas concentration maps are not prepared for many potential basinsNo pilot wells /parametric wells are drilled to explore shale gas in all our basins

  • Commendatory Factors

    Thick shale sequences in Sedimentary basinal areasComparable TOC & VRo values to producing US BasinsProven source rock characteristics for discovered oil& Gas fields in producing BasinsDemonstrated case studies of shale gas finds Estimated Resource Potential - SubstancialRapidly growing economy

  • Analogy o