Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Hanoi, January 27th 2015
Enrico WeberDEI – Politecnico di Milano
IMRR ProjectINTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF
RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEMIN A CHANGING CLIMATE
3. Indicators and criteria
IMRR phases
econnaissance
odeling the system
ndicators identification
cenarios definition
lternative design
valuation
RMISAE
• Identification of 24 indicators, related to 5 sectors of interest
• Validation over different time horizons
omparisonC2
3
Evaluation Hierarchy
Who (and how) is affected by the changes in the sytem? Which kind of criteria are used to evaluate the effects?
Water supply
Rice fields in Ninh Binh
Criteria: Satisfy water needs in order to ensure agricultural production and guarantee other water uses 4
Water supply
1. Experts’ knowledge
How to assess the water shortage?
Reference threshold (2010): 2.3 m at Long Bien, Hanoi
Estimation of real deficit
5
2. Delta hydraulic model
Water supply
1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations:
6
Water supply
1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations:
"In 2009-2010 dry season the reference threshold for water supply in the Delta was 2.3 meter at Long Bien Station, Hanoi“
(MARD release plan)
Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
7
Water supply
1. Reference threshold, identified trough expert knowledge and MARD regulations:
"In 2009-2010 dry season the reference threshold for water supply in the Delta was 2.3 meter at Long Bien Station, Hanoi“
(MARD release plan)
Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
8
Water supply
2. Hydraulic model of the Delta Region: simulation of the canal network and of the intake points behavior, in order to get a measurement of the daily water deficit.
4200 km river and canals network 11 Irrigation Districts 88 Sluice gates 302 district pumps 160 river pumps
9
MIKE11
All the water uses in the Delta are accounted in the water demand computation, done for each irrigation district on a decadic basis
Water uses: all districts in Delta
IrrigationAquacultureUrban and IndustriesDomestic water for rural areaWater for livestockWater for environment
Water supply
10
Water supplyNHUE DD TN
VB TL AKH
BD BHH NTB
BTB NND Water needs are represented trough the water demand for each pump 11
Water supplyNHUE DD TN
VB TL AKH
BD BHH NTB
BTB NND
12
Aggregated water demand for each irrigation district
Water supplyIndicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
13
iws:3
Water supply
NH
UE
DD
TN
VB TL
AK
H
BD
BH
H
NT
B
BT
B
NN
D
1995
2000
2005
2010
Annual volume of deficit for each district
14
Water supplySpatial distribution of water deficit in 2010
15
Flood control
Criteria: Minimize flood damages at Hanoi and all over the Delta region
Long Bien, Hanoi
16
Flood controlRequirements for the indicators: risk-aversion: focus
on the flood peak consider also
damages in the flood plains
consider both magnitude and duration of the floods
13.10 – 300 years r.t.Main dyke system
Official thresholds
13.40 – 500 years r.t.Hanoi city
17
Flood controlRequirements for the indicators: risk-aversion: focus
on the flood peak consider also
damages in the flood plains
consider both magnitude and duration of the floods
• 125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers
• ~ 1000000 inhabitants• stage-damage
relationship estimation
Flood plain study (IWRP)
18
Flood controlRequirements for the indicators: • risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak• consider also damages in the flood plains• consider both magnitude and duration of the floods
125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers1000000 inhabitants
Flood plain study (IWRP)Sum of damages in Flood Plains
19
Flood controlRequirements for the indicators: • risk-aversion: focus on the flood peak• consider also damages in the flood plains• consider both magnitude and duration of the floods
125 flood plains, located along 14 rivers1000000 inhabitants
Flood plain study (IWRP)Sum of damages in Flood Plains
20
Flood controlRequirements for the indicators: risk-aversion: focus
on the flood peak consider also
damages in the flood plains
consider both magnitude and duration of the floods
• damage to structures • damage to economic
activities
Criteria considered
21
Flood controlDamage to structures Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
iFl:1
22
Flood control
23
damages in Flood Plain
13.10: exceedance of the main dyke system, except Hanoi city
13.40: damages also inside Hanoi city
Flood controlDamage to economic activities Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
iFl:7
iFl:8
24
Flood control
25iFl:1 iFl:7 iFl:8
1971
Other indicators: iFl:2 = Maximum water level in Hanoi over
the time horizon iFl:3 = number of occurrence of Day dam
opening iFl:5 = Yearly average number of day with
floods (h_HN >11.5) iFl:6 = Maximum duration of a flood event
over the time horizon [days]
Flood control
26
Hydropower
Criteria: Minimize the deficit of energy from the Red River Plants, especially in the periods in which the thermal production is higher
Son La dam
27
HydropowerOutcomes of sector meeting with EVN: Value of production depends from the period, being higher
during dry season, when the production relies most on thermal power.
28
HydropowerIndicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
29
iHp:1
HydropowerIndicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
30
iHP:1
HydropowerIndicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
31
iHP:1
Navigation
Criteria: Minimize navigation interruptionMinimize dredging costs
32
Navigation
Outcomes of sector meeting with MoIT: Navigation threshold is fixed at 1.1 m at Long Bien
Station, accordig to (Decision 1708/DTND-QLHT issued by
Vietnam Inland Waterways Administration, 2009) Water levels in Hanoi below 0.4 m, force the complete
stop of navigation on the Red River Water levels above 11.5 m do not let boats and ships
pass the Duong Bridge Dredging intervention have been performed in the past
when water level falled below 1.1 m at Long Bien.
33
NavigationIndicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
iN:1
iN:2
34
Navigation
Other Indicators:
iN:3= Yearly average number of days in which the water level at Long Bien station in Hanoi is lower than total interruption threshold [days]
iN:4= Yearly average number of days in which the water level at Long Bien station in Hanoi on the Red River is above the navigation upper threshold [days]
iN:5= Dredging costs: yearly average of daily deficit respect to the navigation threshold
35
Navigation
36 iN:1 iN:2 iN:3 iN:4 iN:5
River Environment
Criteria: Preserve and improve river environment quality
37
In the dry season every hydraulic structure has to release, or let flow downstream of it, a minimum water flow that corresponds to the flow that is overcome the 90% of the time(Q90%) in the dry season, in order to protect the ecological environment (’National technical regulation on hydraulic structures’ (QCVN 04-05:2012/BNNPTNT, MARD)
River Environment
Hoa Binh
Tuyen Quang
Thac Ba
38
River Environment
39
MIKE11
1994-2010 Mike 11 simulation with unregulated flow as inputs
Unregulated (or “natural”) time series of
flows at Son Tay
River Environment
40
Q90%
River Environment
41
River Environment
Indicator formulation, from IMRR wiki website:
42
River Environment
historicalunregulated
43
44
River Environment
2002-2004
River Environment
historicalunregulated
45
River Environment
Historical streamflow at Son Tay
Unr
egul
ated
str
eam
flow
at
Son
Tay
Higher values in the flood season
46
River Environment
Lower flows in the dry season
47
Thanks for your attention
XIN CẢM ƠN
48
Water supplyDifferent results using different deficit-based indicators,
49
Water supply
50
Water supply
1 Expert Based 2. Model based
Strength - Simple and immediate, - always computable,
Suitable for general use, embed parameters of water demandAllow to represent spatial distribution of deficit
Weakness -Depends upon the actual situation, can not be referred to future- does not give enough information on localization and magnitude of deficifs
Need to run simulation of the internal situation of each canal
51
Flood control
52
River Environment
53
River Environment
Lower flows in the dry season
54
River Environment
55
River Environment
56
River Environment
57
Hydropower
58
GW
h
Hydropower
59
GW
h
0.150.070.010.850.16River envir.
Hydropower
Irrigation
Lake envir.
Floods
0.700.800.660.150.83
0.590.750.860.000.61
0.480.160.140.670.26
0.660.700.550.220.12
A54…A4A2A1A0
AlternativesIn
de
xes
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A0
Lake envir.
River envir.
Hydropower
Irrigation
Floods
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A0 A26
Lake envir.
River envir.
Hydropower
Irrigation
Floods
Value matrixPareto Race
excessive loss in irrigation
reasonable alternative
A0 no actions0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
upstr.envir. downstr. envir. hydropower irrigation lake flood
uti
lity
A0 A36 A26
Lake envir.
River envir.
Hydropower
Irrigation
Floods
going on ...
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Lake envir. River envir. Hydropower Irrigation Floods
uti
lity
A0 A36 A34
