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Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO

Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Page 1: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010

Ari KaperiGroup CRO

Page 2: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

2

Macro economic stabilisation in the Nordic region

Growth rates expected to be solid in the Nordic countries

In 2010, all Nordic countries are expected to have:

Positive growth rates

Modest inflation

Relatively strong public finances

Improvements in labour markets

GDP growth, %, y/y

Source: Nordea Markets

08 09 10 11 12-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6 % y/y % y/y

Finland Norway Denmark Sweden

Public finances, % of GDP

08 09 10 11 12-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0 % of GDP % of GDP

USA

Euro area

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Norway +12-18%

Page 3: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Continued strong customer business

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Impaired loans

Income in Corporate segment

Income in Household segment

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold customers

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Lending volumes

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Total income

Page 4: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Result highlights

EURm Q2/10 Q1/10 Chg % Q2/09 Chg % H1/10 H1/09 Chg %

Net interest income 1,249 1,235 1 1,305 -4 2,484 2,661 -7

Net fee and commission income 538 475 13 412 31 1,013 793 28

Net result from items at fair value 339 548 -38 594 -43 887 1,109 -20

Other income 35 45 -22 48 -27 80 75 7

Total income 2,161 2,303 -6 2,359 -8 4,464 4,638 -4

Staff costs -701 -687 2 -687 2 -1388 -1,352 3

Total expenses -1,186 1,164 2 1,116 6 -2,350 -2,206 7

Profit before loan losses 975 1,139 -14 1,243 -22 2,114 2,432 -13

Net loan losses -245 -261 -6 -425 -42 -506 -781 -35

Operating profit 730 878 -17 818 -11 1,608 1,651 -3

Net profit 539 643 -16 618 -13 1,182 1,245 -5

Risk-adjusted profit 516 678 -24 777 -34 1,194 1,524 -22

Page 5: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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1,305 1,2991,235 1,249

1,321

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Net interest income up 1%

Solid trend in customer operations continues

Lending and deposit volumes up

Margins stable

Remains subdued by the low interest rate levels

Lower contribution from Group Treasury

Slight increase in average funding cost when maturing long-term funding was prolonged at higher market rates

Page 6: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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% change in unchanged currency Q210/Q110 Q210/Q209

Total Lending, excl. reversed repurchase agreements 2 4

– Nordic household mortgages 2 9

– Nordic consumer lending 1 7

– Nordic corporates 2 0

– New European Markets 4 1

– FID and Shipping 3 -3

Total Deposits, excl. repurchase agreements -1 -1

– Nordic households 2 3

– Nordic corporates 1 1

– New European Markets -2 -6

– FID and Shipping 4 -19

Underlying volume trends

Page 7: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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412

463 475

538

437

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

EURm

Net fee and commission income up 13%

Higher income contribution from corporate advice

Continued strong performance in savings area

High activity in capital markets

Page 8: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Net result from items at fair value, EURm

198 221

325

515

594

486

351

548

339

Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Nordic Banking and Institutional & International BankingTotal net fair value result

Strong demand for risk management products remains

Capital markets activities in customer areas¹ continues to perform - up 25%

Market volatility increased corporate demand for fixed income and FX products

Continued strong Life & Pensions results

Lower contribution from Group Treasury and Capital Markets unallocated

¹ Nordic Banking and Institutional & International Banking

² Including one-off of EUR 50m – Nordito and PBS

2

Page 9: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Strong capital position maintained – and strong funding despite challenging quarter

9.2 9.2 9.010.3 10.1 10.0

Q2/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II

Core tier 1 capital ratio (excl. hybrids) Core tier 1 ratio 10.0%

High volume increase but stabilising rating migration affect RWA

Stable outcome for Nordea in CEBS’ EU-wide stress tests published 23 July

EUR 10.5bn of long-term funding issued in Q2 – EUR 21bn in H1 10

In June, after several weeks of no market supply, Nordea reopened the senior unsecured market

22 23

31

20.9

2007 2008 2009 H1 2010

Total long-term funding issued, EURbn

Page 10: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

10

468

-91

425413

-82

358452

-135

346358

-97

261316

-128

245

58

4827

29

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Gross loan losses Danish guarantee scheme

DK, 42%

OTHER, 2%NEM, 17%

SOSI, 6%SE, 0%NO, 4%

FI, 29%

Loan losses by area Q2 2010

EURm

Credit quality improving

Net loan losses down to 35 bps 34 bps individual (Q1 26 bps)

1 bps collective (11 bps)

114 bps in the Baltic countries (166 bps)

Excluding guarantee scheme provisions¹ net loan loss ratio down to 26 bps (Q1 37 bps)

Decreased loan losses in most areas

Impaired loans gross down 1% in Q2135 bps (140 bps)

52% of impaired loans performing

Provisioning ratio increased to 56%

Reversals Net loan losses

Page 11: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Signs of stabilisation in Denmark

159124

48

27 29

58

79115116

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Danish guarantee scheme

137153143

207

Increased activity in the housing market

Interest rate level critical going forward

Some signs of improvement in the agricultural sector

Many small and mid-sized companies are still facing challenges with business model and profitability

Excluding guarantee scheme provisions - net loan losses down

Bankpakke1 expires during Q3 2010

Banking Denmark Net loan losses, EURm

45 bps

Page 12: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Positive signs recorded in all economies in the NEM area

18 2442

24

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Collective provisions

41

62 65

32

22

Baltic net loan losses continued to decrease in Q2 - reflecting the improved economic climate

Limited provisions for Poland and Russia –confirming the strong credit quality

Total loan losses in NEM 79 bps –114 bps in the Baltic countries

Increased provisioning ratio in the Baltic countries 57% (53%)

Baltic countries, net loan losses, EURm

-8-29

-47

-75

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10

Baltic countries, operating profit, EURm

Lending past due Nordea Q2/10 (Q1/10)

Total market Q2/10 (Q1/10)

Estonia (60 days) 3.36% (3.49%) 6.86% (6.37%)

Latvia (90 days) 8.26% (7.62%) 18.99% (17.93%)

Lithuania (60 days) 8.07% (7.99%) 19.61% (19.17%)

Source: Central bank data

Page 13: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Basel III – broad agreement on changes and implementation plan

Page 14: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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The phase in period is between January 2013 to January 2019 (for buffers and threshold). A gradual phase out period for existing capital instruments of 10 years (end 2023). The local FSAs could implement a faster phase in period

The reforms will increase the minimum common equity (core tier 1) requirement from 2% to 4.5%

Banks will be required to hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand future periods of stress bringing the total common equity requirements to 7%. This will be phased in by 1 January 2015

The Tier 1 capital requirements, which includes common equity and other qualifying financial instruments based on stricter criteria, will increase from 4% to 8.5% over the same period

Uncertainty still around implementation of countercyclical buffers, loss absorbing instruments, and capital surcharge for systemically important banks

Nordea is currently well above the set limits

Key points from the Basel Committee release

Page 15: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Broad agreement in July 2010 on Basel III changes and implementation plan

Nordea anticipates final details towards the end of the year –including new proposal on NSFR and capital buffers

Uncertainty remains high – questions around NSFR and leverage ratio

Increased cost of capital expected, likely to impact pricing to customers

Oct 2010July 2010 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Jan 2018

Basel release of details for 2012 and new

proposals for 2018

Basel Oversight body, broad agreement

Basel Committee meeting Implementation

capital regulation + LCR

Implementation leverage ratio +

NSFR

G20 meeting

Test/observation phase for leverage ratio +

NSFR 2013-2017

Page 16: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Capital position strong, for regulations and growth

Limited impact from capital base adjustments

Tier 1 hybrids assumed to be replaced by new tier 1 capital types

Uncertainty on capital buffersNordea assessed to be in a good position

Leverage ratioNetting approach for derivatives

Nordea assessed to be above threshold of 3%

Nordea’s capital ratios well above targets and current regulatory threshold

9.010.0

11.8

Core Tier 1 ratio(excl. hybrids)

Tier 1 ratio Capital ratio

Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II

10.011.1

13.2

11.5

9.08.0

Capital ratios H1 2010, %

Targets Threshold

Page 17: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Liquidity – changes in right direction, but proposal still conservative and challenging for the industry

Changed parameters for Liquidity Coverage Ratio, LCRBroader definition of qualifying assets in liquidity buffer

Milder stress scenarios

But internal covered bonds still not eligible, despite high quality and central bank eligibility

Prolonged observation phase for Net Stable Funding Ratio, NSFRObservation phase 2013-2017, final version from 2018

Still challenging for the industry given the size of the funding gap relative to funding market capacity

Uncertainty remains high around the final regulation and the implementation

Page 18: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Prudent growth strategy – supported by Group initiatives for 2010-2012

Page 19: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Prudent growth strategy supported by next generation of Group initiatives

Increase business with existing Nordic customers and attract new customers

Supplement Nordic growth through

investments in New European Markets

Exploit global and European business lines

Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency, support sustained growth

1. Future distribution2. New customer acquisition3. Growth plan Finland

6. Growth plan Poland

5. Customer-driven Markets business

4. Growth plan CMB Sweden

8. Product platforms7. Top league IT and operations

9. Infrastructure upgrade

Page 20: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Careful navigation of the Prudent growth strategy

Keeping strong business momentum and operational efficiency

Prudent growth strategy supported by nine Group initiativesFor further growth in household and corporate, and further enhanced efficiency

Strong foundation for reaching long-term targets

Risk-adjusted profit, EURm

1,957

2,279

2,786

3,914

2,239

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Future distribution

New customer acquisition

CMB Sweden

Growth plan Finland

Growth plan Poland

Top league IT performance

Product platforms

Infrastructure upgrade

Customer-driven Markets business

10% CAGR required

Page 21: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Benefits of universal relationship banking – clearly in focus for the growth

Why relationship banking?

Satisfying customer needs … … while focusing on the most attractive customer groups

Capital efficiency through full customer wallet …

… at a low risk

• Safety and stability• “Someone who cares”• Full range of advice• Customer needs driven

innovation

• Most profitable• Highest potential• Most satisfied and loyal• High efficiency in service

• Balanced and diversified business mix, e.g., lending and deposits

• Complemented by, e.g., capital-efficient asset management products

• Low losses, eg, Gold customers with automated credit scoring

• Knowing and being close to Corporate customers

• Diversification from Corporate and Household mix

Page 22: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Trustworthy brand name

Quality of people

Demand-driven products

Proximity Customer base

Capital position

You need the right platform

One customer team

One value chain

Great customer experiences

Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management

It’s all about people One Nordea team

A great European bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Customer-oriented values

Page 23: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Nordea has built the platform

One customer team

Customer base

Capital position

Trustworthy brand name

Quality of people

One value chain

Great customer experiences

Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management

It’s all about people One Nordea team

A great European bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Customer-oriented values~ 8 m household

customers in programmes, 0.7 m corporate

One of strongest capital and funding positions in Europe

~6,000 PBAs, SRMs and RMs trained in -09

Nordea brand stronger than ever

1,400 branches (160 corporate), contact

centres and netbank

E.g., top Morningstar ratings, No 1

Greenwich rating

Proximity

Demand-driven products

Page 24: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Customer satisfaction improving versus competitors

Nordea

2007 2009

Peers

-0.6 3.9

71.267.6

70.6+0.9

- 3.6

CSI index (aggregate) 2007-2009*

71.5

*Corporate and high involvement customers, corresponding to Gold and Silver segment customers

Page 25: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Strong business development

Page 26: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Future distribution

14 branches transformed to new branch format

Increased number of 360-degree advisory meetings

New customer acquisition

Growth in number of customers continue to perform strongly – 73,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers

Growth Plan Finland

Close to 100 new advisers and specialists recruited in high growth areas

28 branches will during the next 12 months be relocated or refurbished to better serve our customers

Household initiatives and activities on track

Page 27: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Solid trend accelerated in Q2 – up 2.6%73,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers in Q2 – more than 75% new customers in Nordea

Improved market share in all countries

Significant increase of number of pro-active customer meetings

Continued strong customer demand in household segment – increased volumes with stable margins

Total income in household segment up 7%

Nordea value proposition attracts household customers in premium segments

2,6902,812

2,885

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Number of Gold and Private Banking customers, ‘000

0.3

0.1 0.1

0.2

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 28: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Growth Plan Corporate Merchant Banking (CMB) Sweden

According to plan in terms of income development and customer relations

Increased share of wallet – cash management mandates won

Customer driven Markets business

Capital market products to corporates show clear progress and strong results

Corporate initiatives and activities on track

Page 29: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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136 139 144

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Increased business confidence - lending volumes up 3%

Continued strong demand for risk management products

Improved market share in Corporate Banking - strategy to build house-bank relations proven successful

High corporate activity – income up 10%

Corporate lending, EURbn

0.1 0.1

-0.1

0.1

DK FI NO SE

Lending market share increase, %

Page 30: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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315342

372

Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010

Strong income growth in Corporate Merchant Banking (CMB)

Strengthened market position – increased share of wallet

Improved position in capital marketsLeading arranger of Nordic syndicated loans

Participation in execution of main Nordic transactions

New area established – Corporate Merchant Banking and Capital Markets

Ensure that all service and product competences of Nordea reach the large corporate customers

Headed by newly recruited – Casper von Koskull

Nordea’s relationship banking approach further strengthened

Total income CMB, EURm

Page 31: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Concluding remarks

Page 32: Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar · 9/13/2010  · Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010 Ari Kaperi Group CRO. 2 Macro economic stabilisation

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Key messages

We deliver according to our plan

Credit quality improving – impaired loan decreased in Q2

More clarity with the agreement around Basel III, but some uncertainty remains

Focus on prudent growth and the execution of the Group initiatives

On track in all areas

Continued strong customer businessIncome from corporate customers up 10% and from household customers up 7%

Increased lending, deposits and AuM volumes

Solid inflow of new customers – increased market shares in all markets

Positive development in corporate finance business – relationship banking approach further strengthened