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Handelsbanken, Nordic Large Cap seminar Stockholm, 13 September 2010
Ari KaperiGroup CRO
2
Macro economic stabilisation in the Nordic region
Growth rates expected to be solid in the Nordic countries
In 2010, all Nordic countries are expected to have:
Positive growth rates
Modest inflation
Relatively strong public finances
Improvements in labour markets
GDP growth, %, y/y
Source: Nordea Markets
08 09 10 11 12-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6 % y/y % y/y
Finland Norway Denmark Sweden
Public finances, % of GDP
08 09 10 11 12-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0 % of GDP % of GDP
USA
Euro area
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Norway +12-18%
3
Continued strong customer business
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Impaired loans
Income in Corporate segment
Income in Household segment
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Number of Gold customers
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Lending volumes
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Total income
4
Result highlights
EURm Q2/10 Q1/10 Chg % Q2/09 Chg % H1/10 H1/09 Chg %
Net interest income 1,249 1,235 1 1,305 -4 2,484 2,661 -7
Net fee and commission income 538 475 13 412 31 1,013 793 28
Net result from items at fair value 339 548 -38 594 -43 887 1,109 -20
Other income 35 45 -22 48 -27 80 75 7
Total income 2,161 2,303 -6 2,359 -8 4,464 4,638 -4
Staff costs -701 -687 2 -687 2 -1388 -1,352 3
Total expenses -1,186 1,164 2 1,116 6 -2,350 -2,206 7
Profit before loan losses 975 1,139 -14 1,243 -22 2,114 2,432 -13
Net loan losses -245 -261 -6 -425 -42 -506 -781 -35
Operating profit 730 878 -17 818 -11 1,608 1,651 -3
Net profit 539 643 -16 618 -13 1,182 1,245 -5
Risk-adjusted profit 516 678 -24 777 -34 1,194 1,524 -22
5
1,305 1,2991,235 1,249
1,321
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
EURm
Net interest income up 1%
Solid trend in customer operations continues
Lending and deposit volumes up
Margins stable
Remains subdued by the low interest rate levels
Lower contribution from Group Treasury
Slight increase in average funding cost when maturing long-term funding was prolonged at higher market rates
6
% change in unchanged currency Q210/Q110 Q210/Q209
Total Lending, excl. reversed repurchase agreements 2 4
– Nordic household mortgages 2 9
– Nordic consumer lending 1 7
– Nordic corporates 2 0
– New European Markets 4 1
– FID and Shipping 3 -3
Total Deposits, excl. repurchase agreements -1 -1
– Nordic households 2 3
– Nordic corporates 1 1
– New European Markets -2 -6
– FID and Shipping 4 -19
Underlying volume trends
7
412
463 475
538
437
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
EURm
Net fee and commission income up 13%
Higher income contribution from corporate advice
Continued strong performance in savings area
High activity in capital markets
8
Net result from items at fair value, EURm
198 221
325
515
594
486
351
548
339
Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Nordic Banking and Institutional & International BankingTotal net fair value result
Strong demand for risk management products remains
Capital markets activities in customer areas¹ continues to perform - up 25%
Market volatility increased corporate demand for fixed income and FX products
Continued strong Life & Pensions results
Lower contribution from Group Treasury and Capital Markets unallocated
¹ Nordic Banking and Institutional & International Banking
² Including one-off of EUR 50m – Nordito and PBS
2
9
Strong capital position maintained – and strong funding despite challenging quarter
9.2 9.2 9.010.3 10.1 10.0
Q2/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II
Core tier 1 capital ratio (excl. hybrids) Core tier 1 ratio 10.0%
High volume increase but stabilising rating migration affect RWA
Stable outcome for Nordea in CEBS’ EU-wide stress tests published 23 July
EUR 10.5bn of long-term funding issued in Q2 – EUR 21bn in H1 10
In June, after several weeks of no market supply, Nordea reopened the senior unsecured market
22 23
31
20.9
2007 2008 2009 H1 2010
Total long-term funding issued, EURbn
10
468
-91
425413
-82
358452
-135
346358
-97
261316
-128
245
58
4827
29
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Gross loan losses Danish guarantee scheme
DK, 42%
OTHER, 2%NEM, 17%
SOSI, 6%SE, 0%NO, 4%
FI, 29%
Loan losses by area Q2 2010
EURm
Credit quality improving
Net loan losses down to 35 bps 34 bps individual (Q1 26 bps)
1 bps collective (11 bps)
114 bps in the Baltic countries (166 bps)
Excluding guarantee scheme provisions¹ net loan loss ratio down to 26 bps (Q1 37 bps)
Decreased loan losses in most areas
Impaired loans gross down 1% in Q2135 bps (140 bps)
52% of impaired loans performing
Provisioning ratio increased to 56%
Reversals Net loan losses
11
Signs of stabilisation in Denmark
159124
48
27 29
58
79115116
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Danish guarantee scheme
137153143
207
Increased activity in the housing market
Interest rate level critical going forward
Some signs of improvement in the agricultural sector
Many small and mid-sized companies are still facing challenges with business model and profitability
Excluding guarantee scheme provisions - net loan losses down
Bankpakke1 expires during Q3 2010
Banking Denmark Net loan losses, EURm
45 bps
12
Positive signs recorded in all economies in the NEM area
18 2442
24
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Collective provisions
41
62 65
32
22
Baltic net loan losses continued to decrease in Q2 - reflecting the improved economic climate
Limited provisions for Poland and Russia –confirming the strong credit quality
Total loan losses in NEM 79 bps –114 bps in the Baltic countries
Increased provisioning ratio in the Baltic countries 57% (53%)
Baltic countries, net loan losses, EURm
-8-29
-47
-75
Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10
Baltic countries, operating profit, EURm
Lending past due Nordea Q2/10 (Q1/10)
Total market Q2/10 (Q1/10)
Estonia (60 days) 3.36% (3.49%) 6.86% (6.37%)
Latvia (90 days) 8.26% (7.62%) 18.99% (17.93%)
Lithuania (60 days) 8.07% (7.99%) 19.61% (19.17%)
Source: Central bank data
13
Basel III – broad agreement on changes and implementation plan
14
The phase in period is between January 2013 to January 2019 (for buffers and threshold). A gradual phase out period for existing capital instruments of 10 years (end 2023). The local FSAs could implement a faster phase in period
The reforms will increase the minimum common equity (core tier 1) requirement from 2% to 4.5%
Banks will be required to hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand future periods of stress bringing the total common equity requirements to 7%. This will be phased in by 1 January 2015
The Tier 1 capital requirements, which includes common equity and other qualifying financial instruments based on stricter criteria, will increase from 4% to 8.5% over the same period
Uncertainty still around implementation of countercyclical buffers, loss absorbing instruments, and capital surcharge for systemically important banks
Nordea is currently well above the set limits
Key points from the Basel Committee release
15
Broad agreement in July 2010 on Basel III changes and implementation plan
Nordea anticipates final details towards the end of the year –including new proposal on NSFR and capital buffers
Uncertainty remains high – questions around NSFR and leverage ratio
Increased cost of capital expected, likely to impact pricing to customers
Oct 2010July 2010 Dec 2010 Dec 2012 Jan 2018
Basel release of details for 2012 and new
proposals for 2018
Basel Oversight body, broad agreement
Basel Committee meeting Implementation
capital regulation + LCR
Implementation leverage ratio +
NSFR
G20 meeting
Test/observation phase for leverage ratio +
NSFR 2013-2017
16
Capital position strong, for regulations and growth
Limited impact from capital base adjustments
Tier 1 hybrids assumed to be replaced by new tier 1 capital types
Uncertainty on capital buffersNordea assessed to be in a good position
Leverage ratioNetting approach for derivatives
Nordea assessed to be above threshold of 3%
Nordea’s capital ratios well above targets and current regulatory threshold
9.010.0
11.8
Core Tier 1 ratio(excl. hybrids)
Tier 1 ratio Capital ratio
Transition rules Fully implemented Basel II
10.011.1
13.2
11.5
9.08.0
Capital ratios H1 2010, %
Targets Threshold
17
Liquidity – changes in right direction, but proposal still conservative and challenging for the industry
Changed parameters for Liquidity Coverage Ratio, LCRBroader definition of qualifying assets in liquidity buffer
Milder stress scenarios
But internal covered bonds still not eligible, despite high quality and central bank eligibility
Prolonged observation phase for Net Stable Funding Ratio, NSFRObservation phase 2013-2017, final version from 2018
Still challenging for the industry given the size of the funding gap relative to funding market capacity
Uncertainty remains high around the final regulation and the implementation
18
Prudent growth strategy – supported by Group initiatives for 2010-2012
19
Prudent growth strategy supported by next generation of Group initiatives
Increase business with existing Nordic customers and attract new customers
Supplement Nordic growth through
investments in New European Markets
Exploit global and European business lines
Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency, support sustained growth
1. Future distribution2. New customer acquisition3. Growth plan Finland
6. Growth plan Poland
5. Customer-driven Markets business
4. Growth plan CMB Sweden
8. Product platforms7. Top league IT and operations
9. Infrastructure upgrade
20
Careful navigation of the Prudent growth strategy
Keeping strong business momentum and operational efficiency
Prudent growth strategy supported by nine Group initiativesFor further growth in household and corporate, and further enhanced efficiency
Strong foundation for reaching long-term targets
Risk-adjusted profit, EURm
1,957
2,279
2,786
3,914
2,239
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Future distribution
New customer acquisition
CMB Sweden
Growth plan Finland
Growth plan Poland
Top league IT performance
Product platforms
Infrastructure upgrade
Customer-driven Markets business
10% CAGR required
21
Benefits of universal relationship banking – clearly in focus for the growth
Why relationship banking?
Satisfying customer needs … … while focusing on the most attractive customer groups
Capital efficiency through full customer wallet …
… at a low risk
• Safety and stability• “Someone who cares”• Full range of advice• Customer needs driven
innovation
• Most profitable• Highest potential• Most satisfied and loyal• High efficiency in service
• Balanced and diversified business mix, e.g., lending and deposits
• Complemented by, e.g., capital-efficient asset management products
• Low losses, eg, Gold customers with automated credit scoring
• Knowing and being close to Corporate customers
• Diversification from Corporate and Household mix
22
Trustworthy brand name
Quality of people
Demand-driven products
Proximity Customer base
Capital position
You need the right platform
One customer team
One value chain
Great customer experiences
Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management
It’s all about people One Nordea team
A great European bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior
value for customers and shareholders
Customer-oriented values
23
Nordea has built the platform
One customer team
Customer base
Capital position
Trustworthy brand name
Quality of people
One value chain
Great customer experiences
Foundation: Profit orientation and prudent cost, risk and capital management
It’s all about people One Nordea team
A great European bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior
value for customers and shareholders
Customer-oriented values~ 8 m household
customers in programmes, 0.7 m corporate
One of strongest capital and funding positions in Europe
~6,000 PBAs, SRMs and RMs trained in -09
Nordea brand stronger than ever
1,400 branches (160 corporate), contact
centres and netbank
E.g., top Morningstar ratings, No 1
Greenwich rating
Proximity
Demand-driven products
2424
Customer satisfaction improving versus competitors
Nordea
2007 2009
Peers
-0.6 3.9
71.267.6
70.6+0.9
- 3.6
CSI index (aggregate) 2007-2009*
71.5
*Corporate and high involvement customers, corresponding to Gold and Silver segment customers
25
Strong business development
26
Future distribution
14 branches transformed to new branch format
Increased number of 360-degree advisory meetings
New customer acquisition
Growth in number of customers continue to perform strongly – 73,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers
Growth Plan Finland
Close to 100 new advisers and specialists recruited in high growth areas
28 branches will during the next 12 months be relocated or refurbished to better serve our customers
Household initiatives and activities on track
27
Solid trend accelerated in Q2 – up 2.6%73,000 new Gold and Private Banking customers in Q2 – more than 75% new customers in Nordea
Improved market share in all countries
Significant increase of number of pro-active customer meetings
Continued strong customer demand in household segment – increased volumes with stable margins
Total income in household segment up 7%
Nordea value proposition attracts household customers in premium segments
2,6902,812
2,885
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Number of Gold and Private Banking customers, ‘000
0.3
0.1 0.1
0.2
DK FI NO SE
Lending market share increase, %
28
Growth Plan Corporate Merchant Banking (CMB) Sweden
According to plan in terms of income development and customer relations
Increased share of wallet – cash management mandates won
Customer driven Markets business
Capital market products to corporates show clear progress and strong results
Corporate initiatives and activities on track
29
136 139 144
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Increased business confidence - lending volumes up 3%
Continued strong demand for risk management products
Improved market share in Corporate Banking - strategy to build house-bank relations proven successful
High corporate activity – income up 10%
Corporate lending, EURbn
0.1 0.1
-0.1
0.1
DK FI NO SE
Lending market share increase, %
30
315342
372
Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010
Strong income growth in Corporate Merchant Banking (CMB)
Strengthened market position – increased share of wallet
Improved position in capital marketsLeading arranger of Nordic syndicated loans
Participation in execution of main Nordic transactions
New area established – Corporate Merchant Banking and Capital Markets
Ensure that all service and product competences of Nordea reach the large corporate customers
Headed by newly recruited – Casper von Koskull
Nordea’s relationship banking approach further strengthened
Total income CMB, EURm
31
Concluding remarks
32
Key messages
We deliver according to our plan
Credit quality improving – impaired loan decreased in Q2
More clarity with the agreement around Basel III, but some uncertainty remains
Focus on prudent growth and the execution of the Group initiatives
On track in all areas
Continued strong customer businessIncome from corporate customers up 10% and from household customers up 7%
Increased lending, deposits and AuM volumes
Solid inflow of new customers – increased market shares in all markets
Positive development in corporate finance business – relationship banking approach further strengthened