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GLENNON SMALL COMPANIES LTD
HALF YEARLY UPDATE
May 2017
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The information provided in this presentation has been
prepared by Glennon Capital (ABN 84 137 219 866, AFSL
338567). The information herein is provided for information
purposes and should not be construed as an offer for sale.
Whilst Glennon Capital has taken all reasonable care in
producing this information, subsequent changes in
circumstances may occur at any time and may impact on the
accuracy of the information. Glennon Capital Pty Ltd believes
that any information herein is accurate and reliable, but no
warranties of accuracy, reliability or completeness are given
(except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be
excluded). No responsibility for any errors or omissions or any
negligence is accepted by Glennon Capital Pty Ltd, its related
bodies corporate or any of their respective directors,
employees or agents.
This presentation has been prepared without taking into
account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs
of any particular investor. This presentation should not be
relied on as the sole basis for investment in a portfolio
managed by Glennon Capital.
DISCLAIMER
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Market Update
What is happening in small caps?
What opportunities are we seeing?
Portfolio Insights
Tourism
Retail
GC1
Performance, dividends and
communication
Case Studies
TODAY’S
AGENDA
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MARKET UPDATE
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN
SMALL CAPS?
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90
95
100
105
110
115
120
S&P/ASX Small Ords Accumulation S&P/ASX 100 Accumulation
SMALL CAPS VS LARGE CAPS
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- Large cap funds have been selling. These are not traditional owners of small cap stocks
- Quality small caps were overvalued and valuations broadly were stretched
- Good businesses have suffered extreme volatility as valuations were pushed to their upper limits
- Companies with good results that may have been marginally below what the market expected were punished
REPORTING SEASON CARNAGE
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REPORTING SEASON CARNAGE
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POST REPORTING SEASON
CARNAGE
- Downgrades have continued after reporting season
- Many companies are downgrading multiple times as they struggle to gauge the risks to earnings
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WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
- This is the time to be looking at investing
- Small caps have been revalued downwards
- Small caps were getting expensive last year
- There is more value in the market now
Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.
Baron Rothschild
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MARKET UPDATE
WHAT OPPORTUNITIES ARE
WE SEEING?
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SMALL CAPS VS LARGE CAPS
Top 100 Small Ords Microcaps Top 100 Small Ords Microcaps
Number of
Stocks
Market
Capitalisation
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SMALL CAPS VS LARGE CAPS
Microcaps
Small
Ordinaries
ASX 100
Op
po
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nity
No of companies
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INVESTMENT CATEGORIES
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PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS
TOURISM SECTOR
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TOURISM
Tourism growth has been strong – up 11% in 2016…
while Chinese short term arrivals have outpaced total arrivals
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Jan-1
991
Jan-1
992
Jan-1
993
Jan-1
994
Jan-1
995
Jan-1
996
Jan-1
997
Jan-1
998
Jan-1
999
Jan-2
000
Jan-2
001
Jan-2
002
Jan-2
003
Jan-2
004
Jan-2
005
Jan-2
006
Jan-2
007
Jan-2
008
Jan-2
009
Jan-2
010
Jan-2
011
Jan-2
012
Jan-2
013
Jan-2
014
Jan-2
015
Jan-2
016
Jan-2
017
Short Term Arrivals
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Chinese Short Term Arrivals vs Total Arrivals
Normalised Total Arrivals Normalised Chinese Arrivals
10 years to 2001 –8.3% annual growth
10 years to 2011 –1.6% annual growth - Japanese tourism
almost halves- 9/11 impacts
global travel
3 years to 2017 –8% annual growth - lower AUD - strong Chinese tourism growth
3 years to 2014 –5% annual growth- strong AUD restricts growth
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With China driving growth over the past decade…
and likely to drive growth over the next decade
Source: Tourism Research Australia
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
China USA New Zealand UK Japan
Short Term Arrivals By Country
CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH (3 YEARS) CURRENT ARRIVALS
TOURISM
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
2006-0
7
2007-0
8
2008-0
9
2009-1
0
2010-1
1
2011-1
2
2012-1
3
2013-1
4
2014-1
5
2015-1
6
2016-1
7
2017-1
8
2018-1
9
2019-2
0
2020-2
1
2021-2
2
2022-2
3
2023-2
4
2024-2
5
Chinese International Visitor Arrivals
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Skydive the Beach (ASX:SKB)
- Largest tandem skydiving provider in Australia and New Zealand with recent expansion into adventure tourism and leisure
- Attractive industry positioning and exposure to inbound tourism and consumer spending on experiences
- Core market growth in high single digits with acquisitions, especially in adventure tourism, driving further growth
Apollo Tourism & Leisure (ASX:ATL)
- Recreational vehicle rental fleet operator and retailer in Australia, NZ, the USA, and Canada
- Large market share in renting of RVs in Australia and New Zealand and exposure to inbound tourism
- Continuing to grow RV rental in the USA and retail domestically while being exposed to inbound tourism growth in the core rental business
TOURISM
CURRENT EXPOSURE
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PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS
RETAIL SECTOR
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WAGE GROWTH CONSTRAINED
Indebted households are becoming more sensitive to subdued income growth…
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RETAIL SALES FALLING
…and are more likely to pay down debt, resulting in
lower retail sales
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ONLINE RETAIL IS GROWING
Meanwhile online retailing is growing…
…and Amazon is clearly a threat
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RETAIL EXPOSURE
- No current exposure to brick and mortar retail
- Profit pool for local retailers is shrinking
- Highly leveraged retail business models are now under pressure from both poor retail sales and online competition
- Many retail businesses falling into administration already
- Where to from here?
- Some may survive the onslaught but sentiment to remain poor until Amazon’s full launch clears uncertainty
- Offshore Amazon has claimed up to 30% of online spending and already has $700m+ of sales from Australia
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GC1
PERFORMANCE, DIVIDENDS
AND COMMUNICATION
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Fund Overview
Glennon Small Companies Ltd is an ASX
listed investment company. The Company
invests in a concentrated portfolio of high
quality small cap and microcap companies
outside the S&P/ASX 100.
Portfolio Characteristics
Number of Equity Holdings 39
Median Market Cap $197m
Fund Size $44.7m
ABOUT
GC1
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GC1 DIVIDENDS
DIVIDEND POLICY
The Board is committed to paying a growing stream of fully franked dividends to shareholders over the long term, provided the Company has sufficient profit reserves and franking credits, it is within
prudent business practices, and it is in line with capital growth objectives.
0.75
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Interim 2016 Final 2016 Interim 2017
DIV
IDEN
DS
Dividend Franking
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LONG TERM PERFORMANCE
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200
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300
350
400
Glennon Capital Representative Portfolio Performance
S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accum Index
30-Apr-17 1 Year 3 years 5 YearsSince
Inception
Glennon Small Companies Portfolio 9.5% 44.8% 120.6% 215.0%
S&P / ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index 10.0% 21.8% 12.7% 27.1%
Under / Outperformance -0.6% 22.9% 107.9% 188.0%
30-Apr-17 1 Year3 years
%pa
5 Years
%pa
Since
Inception
(%pa)
Glennon Small Companies Portfolio 9.5% 13.1% 17.1% 14.3%
S&P / ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index 10.0% 6.8% 2.4% 2.8%
Under / Outperformance -0.6% 6.3% 14.7% 11.5%
Note: Glennon Capital representative portfolio performance. Shown on a gross basis, before expenses and taxes. Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future performance.
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INVESTOR COMMUNICATION
/glennon-capital
/glennoncapital
GlennonCap
glennon.com.au
glennon.com.au
WEEKLY NEWSLETTER STAY IN TOUCH
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CASE STUDIES
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NATIONAL VET CARE
(ASX:NVL)
- veterinary services provider in Australia and
New Zealand, which has 54 vet services
businesses
- industry characteristics are favourable and
barriers to entry are high while management is
experienced and driven to succeed
- business has an acquisition model
supplemented by a margin improvement
process led by corporate initiatives
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ZIPMONEY
(ASX:ZML)
- digital wallet offering point-of-sale
credit online and offline
- attracting retail partners by offering
increased conversion and increased
order value while customers get to
purchase interest free
- sharp growth in customer numbers,
loan book and revenue on a scalable
fixed cost base
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Email: [email protected]
Phone: (02) 8027 1000
Address: Level 17
25 Bligh Street
Sydney NSW 2001
PO Box: PO Box R281
Royal Exchange NSW 1225
CONTACT
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GLENNON SMALL COMPANIES LTD
HALF YEARLY UPDATE
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