Gwynne Dyer Explainsterrorism

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Gwynne Dyer explains why terrorism is overblown and why

Islamists want western countries to attack the Islamic State

by Charlie Smith on March 29th, 2015 at 11:26 AM

Don't panic. Terrorism is a very small problem. And any western president or primeminister who thinks they'll severely damage ISIS by dropping bombs on its fighters isterribly mistaken.

That was the message author and historian Gwynne Dyer brought to SFU Woodward'sin a March 25 sold-out lecture at the Goldcorp Centre for the Arts.

"Well, we lost two people in the last year to terrorism and we lost about 250 a month onthe roads," Dyer said. "You know, the Americans lost 3,000 people on 9/11, but they alsolost 3,000 people on the roads and another 3,000 to gunshot wounds, mostly delivered by their nearest and dearest.

"The scale of the terrorism is tiny compared to its presence in the media," Dyercontinued. "Really, we should, as much as possible, ignore it. We certainly don't need tooverreact by sending troops to the Middle East or aircraft to do God knows what interms of useful activity. It's just dumb."

In fact, according to Dyer, if western countries expand their bombing campaigns against

ISIS into Syria, it will only make the Islamic State stronger.

That's because it will reinforce ISIS's message that western infidels are attacking andkilling Muslims. Dyer said that this provides a perfect recruiting tool to attract moredesperate people to join their cause.

The former instructor at Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (where British officers aretrained to lead soldiers) described this as "political jujitsu". And he said this is why ISISreleases grisly, well-edited videos showing westerners being beheaded.

"You poke the bear," Dyer said, "and the bear comes down and attacks not just you, but

everybody around you and people you've never met—

and drives some of those peopleinto the revolutionaries' arms."

Dyer says terrorism is a technique

Dyer, who has a PhD in military and Middle Eastern history, emphasized in his lecturethat terrorism is "the weapon of the weak". And he pointed out that it has been used for

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centuries in many parts of the world against governments to achieve very specificobjectives.

He also repeatedly characterized terrorism as a "technique" for revolutionaries "whodon't have an army, don't have heavy weapons, and don't have a great deal of money".

"It doesn't have a very high entry cost," Dyer explained. "All you need are someexplosives and a few small arms, and you can start blowing people up. You can startkidnapping and killing people."

He said that this offers benefits for those hoping to build a mass movement to bringdown a dictator.

Dyer wryly noted that a few thousand rebels can't do this on their own against agovernment that has 100,000 soldiers and 50,000 police on its side. So they need toconvince the public to risk their lives by going out into the streets by the hundreds ofthousands.

"You have to build support," he said.

So why would revolutionaries perpetrate acts of terrorism in countries ruled bydictators?

"First of all, it will get you noticed," Dyer stated. "You blow stuff up, you kill people—it's very hard to hide that. The government will undoubtedly tell horrible lies about yourmotives and who you are, but it will not be possible to pretend you're not there. Bear inmind, you're operating in a situation where censorship is horrible. You can't go onOprah and have a chat about your policies. But you can do the propaganda of the deed."

In the 1980s and 1990s, he said, terrorist campaigns targeted at dictators in the Arab world killed "several tens of thousands of people". And governments, in theiroverreaction to the threat, responded by killing tens of thousands more.

Not a single regime was overthrown in this period. Col. Moammar Gadhafi, SaddamHussein, Hafez al-Assad, Hosni Mubarak, and others remained in power for decades.

By 2000, one of those revolutionaries, Osama bin Laden, came up with the idea ofattacking the United States. The logic behind this was that by provoking a U.S. attack, it would mobilize popular support against Arab regimes.

"Kill 3,000 Americans...and what are the Americans going to do?" Dyer asked. "Youknow what they're going to do. To a man who has only a hammer, everything looks like anail. If you have the biggest armed force in the world, every problem has a militarysolution."

Arabs were defeated in 20th century


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In the early part of his lecture, Dyer delved into modern Middle Eastern history. Hepointed out that much of the Arab world was only conquered by western powers afterthe First World War.

"European empires conquered the Americas in the 17th century," he stated. "They

conquered most of Asia by the 18th century. They gobbled up all of Africa by the 19thcentury. It was only in 1918 and 1919 that the Arab world fell under infidel Europeanrule."

Borders were created, carving up the area between the British, French, and Italians,causing "profound cultural shock to the Arabs".

Dyer reminded the audience that Arabs had a long and often hostile relationship withChristendom dating back 1,500 years.

"But they had never been conquered like that," he added. "Suddenly, they were underthe British heel or the French heel or the Italian heel."

For the next 40 years, he said, Arab countries were "being ripped off in the usualimperial way".

By the time, they achieved independence, mostly in the 1950s and 1960s, there was ashared consensus that they had to modernize, educate their populations, and buildindustrial capacity. According to Dyer, this was not only because it would make themprosperous, but it would also enhance their safety to ensure that they would never again be conquered.

This view was shared, he said, by Arab intellectuals, military personnel, and most peoplein the streets in the 1950s and 1960s. The goal was to replicate the economic success ofthe West while retaining Arab culture.

But this shared project went off the rails, Dyer said, because the leaders were almostalways young military officers: Nasser in Egypt, Gadhafi in Libya, Assad in Syria, theFLN in Algeria, and the Ba'ath Party in Iraq, ending up with Saddam Hussein.

Dictators like Moammar Ghadafi failed to

build strong economies.

Dyer said that these young military officers "didn't have a clue" how to deliver on theshared objective of modernization.

"Military academies will teach you many things: how to build a trench, how to lookreally snappy in uniform," Dyer explained. "But they will not teach you how to build an


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economy or a country. And so these young military officers right across the board allfailed to deliver on their promises."

As a result, he said, the Arab world is the second poorest region in the world. Givencurrent economic growth rates in Africa, he predicted that the Arab countries will

become the poorest within 15 years.

"There's virtually no science done in the Arab countries," Dyer said, characterizing theregion as being gripped with "poverty, illiteracy, ignorance, and despair".

It's to be expected that under these circumstances, revolutionary movements wouldemerge.

Dyer explains appeal of Islamism

"The revolutionaries were very unlikely to adopt a position which said, 'Well, the plan was good but these guys didn't do it right. We promise to do it better'," Dyer said. "Thisdoes not set the heart beating faster."

Instead, he said that rebels need an "alternative approach, radically alternativepreferably, which will fire people's imagination".

"You can see this many times when a revolutionary generation emerges trying tooverthrow the old regime," Dyer explained. "They will not adopt the regime's oldideology and promise to do it better. They will find a different one. And the one thatemerged in the Arab world in the '80s is what we now call Islamism."

According to Dyer, Islamists believe that the secular Arab states failed becausemodernizing in the European tradition was "inappropriate for Muslims".

"Instead, they needed a strategy which would go with their religious values and wouldproduce, in the end, the same results," he said.

In other words, prosperity, strength, and respect could be achieved by forcing everyonein the country to live exactly as God wishes his Muslim people to live.

"Once we have got everybody in the country praying five times a day and having washedthe right limbs and facing in the right direction—and they aren't smoking and theyaren't drinking and they aren't listening to music and they aren't watching videos and so

on—

then God will deliver the rest," Dyer commented. "It's magical thinking, but magicalthinking is very attractive to desperate people. And the Arab world is full of desperatepeople."

He said that bin Laden was also captured by this magical thinking that says: "therevolution must happen because we need state power in order to force everybody intothis straitjacket."


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That's where terrorism enters the picture.

"It doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work," Dyer stated. "Statistics suggest that only abouta quarter of terrorist campaigns culminate in a successful revolution."

What is the Islamic State?

Dyer acknowledged that it's helpful for Islamists that they have a territorial base innorthwestern Iraq and parts of Syria, which is known as the Islamic State. But he alsoemphasized that it's a profoundly weak base, mostly open desert, with few resources.

"There is one big river, the Euphrates, running through it," he said. "There's been a 10- year drought, so the farms are all dying there."

He also pointed out that there's a city, Mosul, but it's not a city of great note.

"There is one university, very poor," Dyer added. "There is not a functioning airfield that you can fly in around the Islamic State."

According to him, the population is five million, comprising the "poorest of the poor with a high illiteracy rate, even among the men".

"This is not a powerhouse," he emphasized.

Gwynne Dyer used to teach futurearmy officers at Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.

There is oil in the region, but Dyer said that there isn't that much and what's there must be sold on the black market at a huge discount.

"I don't think they're going to expand much further than where they got to in the firstflush of expansion in July and August of 2014," he predicted.

That's because the Islamic State's initial success was based on the "surprise factor",taking Mosul with one-twentieth the number of soldiers that Iraq had defending thecity.

"That kind of surprise only happens once or twice and then the surprise value goes,"Dyer said.

Then he downplayed the impact of parts of Libya or Yemen declaring their allegiance tothe caliphate in the Islamic State.


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"Is this a great power arising that we need to worry about?" he asked. "No, it's not. It'sastounding how little the Middle East matters. I mean, it monopolizes our news media, but the Middle East contains 10 percent of the world's people. Only five percent of the world's people are Arabs. And it accounts for about three percent of the world'seconomy, including all the oil."

He added that there are no great powers in the area, and there is "virtually no scientificor technological base".

"This is not going to emerge as a global threat," Dyer insisted. "Whatever happens in theMiddle East, rather as in the case of Las Vegas, will remain in the Middle East."

During a subsequent question-and-answer period, Dyer was asked if terrorism isn't sucha concern, what truly frightens him?

"Climate change, climate change, climate change," he replied

Add a comment...

Michael Walsh

Mr. Dyer never fails to hit the nail on the head. The way to beat ISIL is by offering the people most likely

to fall under their sway better alternatives to their otherwise bleak prospects. You don't win hearts and

minds by dropping bombs on them. You do it by extending a helping hand. Build schools and hospitals.

Help the poor and desperate to help themselves, and they'll be less inclined to listen to anti-Western

propaganda.

Like · Reply · 90 · Nov 3, 2015 2:13am

Christopher Michael Lyle ·

Toronto, Ontario

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The Chinese are doing this with great success in african nations. The AIIB is now offering a slightly better

deal than the IMF and the Chinese are smart enough to leave some infrastructure behind as a part of

the deals on resources. I dont think you are correct with ISIS, it was created and is armed by the western

nations to create regime change and the people in the area know this is the case. Candians just cant

bring themselves to face the fact that we are on the wrong side. Andrew Dorion was illegally behind

enemy lines, we have participated in the destabilization and this is why Trudeua was so quick to stop or

military role. We are the bad guys, its time to own up to it.

Like · Reply · 44 · Nov 6, 2015 7:58pm

Karen Lund ·

Works at Retired

A voice of reason is a rare and wonderful thing.

Like · Reply · 19 · Nov 15, 2015 4:51am

Brenda Dieckamp ·

MedTech College

They don't want schools and hospitals. They want us to embrace Islam. Otherwise, we are infidels to be

done away with. Quit trying to explain away their atrocities. Muslims have been conquering others since

the 600. Read something, for God's sake.

Like · Reply · 20 · 12 hrs · Edited


Toronto, Ontario

Brenda Dieckamp what are you basing this assumption of what 1 billion+ people want on exactly? I

provided some geo-political context that the article missed. What is it you want me to read? I have been

to the vatican and christians have conquered a few in ther day as well. This vatican is full or loot and

treasures to this day. My point is that there are considerable efforts on the part of our governements to

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8/28

start a war. The economy is in ruins and will be reset. Nobody wants war other than those who will

benefit from it. Religion is the scape goat this is about petro dollar. Maybe you should do some reading?

Like · Reply · 14 · 12 hrs

Shannon Webster ·

Farmington High School, Farmington, NM

Brenda is right. The fallacy here - and I say this as a card-carrying liberal/progressive - is that these wars

are different, different, different, from the wats of liberation against western imperialism in places like

Central America, Africa, etc, in the past. We are not talking about the poor, when we are talking about

ISIL or al-Qaeda. In fact the reverse. They're loaded. They're well-financed. They've got more money

than God! This is not the poor rising up, and all that some of my liberal colleagues would have youbelieve. These folks are well-heeled. Middle-class kids are leaving suburban homes in Europe and

America to join a movement that thinks it is a jolly good idea to cut people's heads off. It is a movement

of religious fanaticism, for reasons far different than the usual economic ones. Stop turning it into

something that isn't, in order to suit your ideology.



Toronto, Ontario

Shannon Webster my ideology? What is my ideology exactly? You are basing your statement on what

exactly? Again yes the ISIS group are financed by oil sales to Saudi Arabia. So I am correct. ISIS was

armed by the USA. SO again Iam correct. The people fighting are paid mercenaries from all over the

world as you state so again i am correct. Your comments regarding standard of living are relevant how

exactly? They arent. Again this is classic illiberal nonsense from self proclaimed progressives. So again

none of you have any information just opinions without data, evidence or reason. The economy is in

ruins and is based on the US petro-dollar. As thepower shifts to the east wars will be started to assist inthe transition to eastern rule. This is about destabilizing the oil rich nataions while the powers that be

fight for control. You spend too much time watching tv.


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9/28

Michael Walsh

Brenda Dieckamp I don't recall trying to explain away anything. All I did was offer an opinion on one wayto help undermine the Salafi jihadists behind the so-called Islamic State. And I've read enough to know

not to lump a relatively small percentage of extremists under the general heading of "Muslims".


Peter Van Eunen ·

Works at Retired

Brenda Dieckamp When you use "they", you don't differentiate between the fanatics who perpetuate

their control with violence and oppressive fear tactics and the population caught in their web of

hopelessness and ignorance. I believe the ordinary domestic populace dreams of peace, freedom, love

and laughter as well as schools and hospitals but can't see it becoming a reality because of their

psychological and physical imprisonment. There are good, bad and indifferent Muslims as in many other

religions. If we forget that and paint an entire demographic with the same brush, we stop seeing them

as individuals, like ourselves. A dehumanized group is easier to hate, blame and bomb.


Brenda Dieckamp ·

MedTech College

What I just read today. There are 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide. Of that 1.6 billion, .003% are "radicals".

4,800,000 radicals who are thrilled that a caliphate has been established and they can now carry on with

what they see as their part in Armageddon. 4,800,000 is no small amount of crazies.

Like · Reply · 5 · 11 hrs · Edited

William Lammas

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10/28

The West has given aid to the same people that that behead aid workers and assylm to suicide bombers.

Surely it is the intention of The West to have peace everywhere - they fuck up sometimes. The extremist

seems to revel in death and destuction - sometimes they succeed.


Eckart Wuensche

Brenda Dieckamp Gwyn Dyer is far better educated than you are, and reads history and military for a

living. Perhaps you are the one who needs to read more, instead of relying on Faux News.


William Lammas

Eckart Wuensche Seriously, what do you know about Brenda's education? Dyer clearly is bias and has his

agenda but still I agree with some of his points, if not his main thrust. Would it help you or benefit this

converstaion to discus my education.



Toronto, Ontario

William Lammas Interesting points, but you state that "surely it is the intention of the west to have

peace everywhere". What are you basing this assumption on? History shows that destabilizing a region

is very beneficial to those who wants its resources at rock bottom prices. Do you really feel that

empires, cleptocracies, plutocracies etc have intentions of peace everywhere? That would be a first in

the history or human rule would it not? in pace, ut sapiens, aptarit idonea bello


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11/28

Murray Shaw ·

Works at Douglas College

Shannon Webster Well, we live in societies where our leaders think from time to time that it is a jolly

good idea to drop things like napalm and bombs on civilian populations. A few heads cut off here and

there is nothing, relatively speaking.

Like · Reply · 9 hrs

Darin Keatley

Brenda Dieckamp your math is way off. .003% of 1.6 billion is 48,000. You could fit that many people in a

mid-sized professional sports stadium.


Jim Kilby ·

Industrial Hygiene Technician at Teck Metals Ltd.

Christopher Michael Lyle - thank you for spelling it out so clearly. In light of the current and now,

expected, media spin on ISIS we are not being told the truth. ISIS has that same CIA sort of smell like,

you know, the smell of burning sulphur. Follow the money. Who sells them munitions? Who supports

Regime change in Syria?


Storm Lee Sanders ·

Nutty Professor at University of Saskatchewan

Brenda Dieckamp OMG I read this today too ... on Facebook! And yet you don't trust Gwynne Dyer ...

#soignorant frown emoticon

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64795217830/?type=3&theater

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12/28


13/28

Shannon Webster ·

Farmington High School, Farmington, NM

Christopher Michael Lyle Ah, I went back in the threads and read your other posts, and now I see. You

are a conspiracy theorist. While that's always fun, it doesn't help us in this conversation. I lived in

Roswell for 18 years, so I'm used to foil hats. Don't need to do that again.


Frederick W Harrison ·

Customer Service at University of Toronto Bookstore

Experience and propoganda have taught the desperate poor in Iraq/Syria that anything Western is evil.

It is no surprise that they turn to radical Islam - it offers 40 virgins and God's blessing in Heaven for

martyrdom in defense of the faith. Trying to argue against this only confirms for them that the person

agruing against them is an infidel to be killed to defend the one true faith and so curry favour with God.

Schools and hospitals mean sinful Western ideas and influence to them.

While it is Africa and not Iraq, I know of a medical clinic in northeast Kenya that is no longer able to

operate becase the safety of the workers cannot be guaranteed against the threats of the Muslim

extremists (Boko Haram) who are opposed to it because the workers and supporters are not Muslim

extremists like themselves. In other words, the extremists would rather see their families suffer and die

from treatable diseases and injuries than risk being polluted by contact with Westerners.


Niko Lourotos ·

Vancouver, British Columbia

Brenda Dieckamp THat's just bad math. 0.003% of 1.6 billion is only 48,000. "Fourty eight THOUSAND"


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14/28

Joseph Burnside ·

Pharmacist at Pharmacist

Extend a helping hand is a good idea if it is readily accepted by the indigenous population and it is not

perceived by them as being controlled. Building schools and hospitals? Hell, they blow those up all of the

time...


Brenden ErraErra Salter ·

Elphinstone Secondary

the whole 'hearts and minds' strategy never worked in Afghanistan. What makes you think it's going to

work in Syria or any other war torn country right now. ISIS is gaining recruitment from Western

countries as well. Most notably was a German national who was known to have been a recruiter for ISIS.

You can't change radicalism, and brainwashing indoctrination. Most of these radicals are taught that the

West is bad at a young age by everyone around them. How can you say that building schools and

hospitals are going to work? When recruitment comes from not just that one place.


Gerardo Rafael Cantu ·

Social Work at Student

Brenda Dieckamp and Christians??? No they haven't been attrocious in the least! You can make a

blanket statement about all Muslims like you just did, but that says more about you than it does about

them. How about YOU read!

Like · Reply · 2 hrs · Edited

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15/28

Miike Oxmall

Niko Lourotos her math is RIGHT its you that needs to learn his math, a grade 7 would even say your

wrong, did you not pay attention in class? there are 9 zero's in a BILLION


Josh Fuller ·

Whistler, Canada

Brenda Dieckamp Careful with your maths Brenda. The number your looking for is 48 000. If your that

far off the mark with a simple maths calculation then its fair to say everything else you say is

questionable.

Like · Reply · 2 mins

Andrew Parr ·

Fanshawe College

Here in Canada we have a saying: you are more likely to be killed by a moose than a terrorist.

Like · Reply · 57 · Nov 1, 2015 6:0

Documents

Gwynne Dyer Explainsterrorism