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Quantifying Global International Migration Flows.
Guy J. Abel
Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University
5th December 2016
醢犦俋叧鲡爳鳏訥蔠裮跤宆柇鳏訥蔠裮忞Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Motivation
Last few years focused mainly on quantifying bilateral internationalmigration flows.
Developed an accounting system to link UN bilateral migrant stockand demographic data (births, deaths and population size)Bilateral flows estimates match the changes in bilateral stocks anddemographic changes.The sum of the bilateral flows in each country matches the UN netmigration estimate.
More recent work, most of which is half complete:
Projections based on estimated rates in base year.Investigating alternative assumptions for net migration.Disaggregation of estimated flows to smaller geographic units.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Data
Bilateral measures provides a more in-depth view of migrationpatterns
Comes in two forms:
1 Stocks:
The numbers of migrants, defined by their birthplace, living in acountry at a point in time.Static, easy to define, and collected in censuses.Available for all countries (UN and World Bank).Is also called lifetime migration. Difficult to distinguish when themigrants moved.
2 Flows:
Movements between countries of origin and destination during adefined period.Dynamic, difficult to define and compare across countries.UN and Eurostat provide collections.Available only for some Western countries.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Data
Bilateral measures provides a more in-depth view of migrationpatterns
Comes in two forms:1 Stocks:
The numbers of migrants, defined by their birthplace, living in acountry at a point in time.Static, easy to define, and collected in censuses.Available for all countries (UN and World Bank).Is also called lifetime migration. Difficult to distinguish when themigrants moved.
2 Flows:
Movements between countries of origin and destination during adefined period.Dynamic, difficult to define and compare across countries.UN and Eurostat provide collections.Available only for some Western countries.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Data
Bilateral measures provides a more in-depth view of migrationpatterns
Comes in two forms:1 Stocks:
The numbers of migrants, defined by their birthplace, living in acountry at a point in time.Static, easy to define, and collected in censuses.Available for all countries (UN and World Bank).Is also called lifetime migration. Difficult to distinguish when themigrants moved.
2 Flows:
Movements between countries of origin and destination during adefined period.Dynamic, difficult to define and compare across countries.UN and Eurostat provide collections.Available only for some Western countries.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Data
Bilateral measures provides a more in-depth view of migrationpatterns
Comes in two forms:1 Stocks:
The numbers of migrants, defined by their birthplace, living in acountry at a point in time.Static, easy to define, and collected in censuses.Available for all countries (UN and World Bank).Is also called lifetime migration. Difficult to distinguish when themigrants moved.
2 Flows:
Movements between countries of origin and destination during adefined period.Dynamic, difficult to define and compare across countries.UN and Eurostat provide collections.Available only for some Western countries.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10 100
B
0 10 0 0 0
C
0 0 10 0 10
D
0 0 0 0 0
Sum
70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10 100
B
0 10 0 0 0
C
0 0 10 0 10
D
0 0 0 0 0
Sum
70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10 100
B
0 10 0 0 0
C
0 0 10 0 10
D
0 0 0 0 0
Sum
70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10 100
B
0 10 0 0 0
C
0 0 10 0 10
D
0 0 0 0 0
Sum
70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10 100
B
0 10 0 0 0
C
0 0 10 0 10
D
0 0 0 0 0
Sum
70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A
70 20 0 10
100B
0 10 0 0
0C
0 0 10 0
10D
0 0 0 0
0Sum 70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 70
20 0 10
100B
0
10
0 0
0C
0 0
10
0
10D
0 0 0
0 0Sum 70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of a Population Born in a Country A
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
100
10
10
A
B
C
Nat
ive
Bor
nF
orei
gnB
orn
70
30
10
10
A
B
C
D
20
10
Stocks as margins in flowtables.
Stayers set to the maximumpossible values.
Flows estimated using aniterative proportional fittingalgorithm.
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 70 20 0 10 100B 0 10 0 0 0C 0 0 10 0 10D 0 0 0 0 0
Sum 70 30 10 10 120
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10
A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
5015
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10
A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
50
15
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10
A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
50
15
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.
→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10
A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
50
15
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
5015
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Distribution of all Populations
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t)
Stocks in each place ofresidence at (t + 1)
Flows unknown.→ IPF Estimation
Aggregate over birthplace
DestinationA B C D Sum
Origin
A 20 0 10 30B 0 0 0 0C 15 15 5 35D 10 25 0 35
Sum 25 60 0 15 100
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace A:
100
10
10
70
30
10
10
20
10A
B
C
A
B
C
D
Residenceat t
EstimatedFlows
Residenceat t+1
Birthplace B:
20
55
25
10
25
60
10
15
555
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace C:
10
40
140
65
10
55
140
5015
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
Birthplace D:
20
25
20
200
40
45
180
10
10
10
10
A
B
C
D
A
B
D
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Flow Estimates
Estimates represent the minimum number of migrant transitions (notmovements) required to match changes in stocks and demographicdata. True flow may well be higher.
Controls for changes in births, deaths and population totals in eachcountry over the period using WPP2015 data.
Forms a crude demographic account where estimated flows matchchanges in stock data and the net migration estimates in WPP2015.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Flow Estimates
Estimates represent the minimum number of migrant transitions (notmovements) required to match changes in stocks and demographicdata. True flow may well be higher.
Controls for changes in births, deaths and population totals in eachcountry over the period using WPP2015 data.
Forms a crude demographic account where estimated flows matchchanges in stock data and the net migration estimates in WPP2015.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Flow Estimates
Estimates represent the minimum number of migrant transitions (notmovements) required to match changes in stocks and demographicdata. True flow may well be higher.
Controls for changes in births, deaths and population totals in eachcountry over the period using WPP2015 data.
Forms a crude demographic account where estimated flows matchchanges in stock data and the net migration estimates in WPP2015.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Flow Estimates
Estimates represent the minimum number of migrant transitions (notmovements) required to match changes in stocks and demographicdata. True flow may well be higher.
Controls for changes in births, deaths and population totals in eachcountry over the period using WPP2015 data.
Forms a crude demographic account where estimated flows matchchanges in stock data and the net migration estimates in WPP2015.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Estimated Five Year Global Flows
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Sum of Flows (m) Crude Migration Rate
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.6
0.7
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Interval5 years
Stock Source
●
●
WB2011
UN2012
UN2013
UN2015
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Estimated Immigration
ZWEZMBUGATZASYCSSDSOMRWAREUMYTMWIMUSMOZMDGKENETHERIDJI
COMBDI
TCDSTP
GNQGABCOGCODCMRCAFAGO
TUNSDNMARLBYESHEGYDZA
ZAFSWZNAMLSOBWA
TGOSLESENNGANERMRTMLI
LBRGNBGMBGIN
GHACPVCIVBFABEN
EasternAfrica
MiddleAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
TWNPRKMNGMACKORJPNHKGCHN
UZBTKMTJKPAKNPLMDVLKAKGZKAZIRNINDBTNBGDAFG
VNMTLSTHASGPPHLMYSMMRLAOKHMIDN
BRN
YEMTURSYRSAUQATPSE
OMNLBNKWTJORISRIRQ
GEOCYPBHRAZEARMARE
EasternAsia
South−CentralAsia
South−EasternAsia
WesternAsia
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
UKRSVKRUSROUPOLMDAHUNCZEBLRBGR
SWENORLVALTUISLIRL
GBRFIN
ESTDNKCHI
SVNSRBPRTMNEMLT
MKDITA
HRVGRCESPBIHALB
NLDLUXFRADEUCHEBELAUT
EasternEurope
NorthernEurope
SouthernEurope
WesternEurope
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
0 2 4 6 8
EstimatedImmigration
NZLAUS
VIRVCTTTOPRI
MTQLCAJAMHTI
GRDGLP
DOMCUWCUBBRBBHSATG
ABW
SLVPANNIC
MEXHNDGTMCRIBLZ
VUTSLBPNGNCL
FJI
KIRGUMFSM
USACAN
WSMTONPYF
VENURYSURPRYPERGUYGUFECUCOLCHLBRABOLARG
Australia/NewZealand
Caribbean
CentralAmerica
Melanesia
Micronesia
NorthernAmerica
Polynesia
SouthAmerica
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Estimated Emigration
ZWEZMBUGATZASYCSSDSOMRWAREUMYTMWIMUSMOZMDGKENETHERIDJI
COMBDI
TCDSTP
GNQGABCOGCODCMRCAFAGO
TUNSDNMARLBYESHEGYDZA
ZAFSWZNAMLSOBWA
TGOSLESENNGANERMRTMLI
LBRGNBGMBGIN
GHACPVCIVBFABEN
EasternAfrica
MiddleAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
TWNPRKMNGMACKORJPNHKGCHN
UZBTKMTJKPAKNPLMDVLKAKGZKAZIRNINDBTNBGDAFG
VNMTLSTHASGPPHLMYSMMRLAOKHMIDN
BRN
YEMTURSYRSAUQATPSE
OMNLBNKWTJORISRIRQ
GEOCYPBHRAZEARMARE
EasternAsia
South−CentralAsia
South−EasternAsia
WesternAsia
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
UKRSVKRUSROUPOLMDAHUNCZEBLRBGR
SWENORLVALTUISLIRL
GBRFIN
ESTDNKCHI
SVNSRBPRTMNEMLT
MKDITA
HRVGRCESPBIHALB
NLDLUXFRADEUCHEBELAUT
EasternEurope
NorthernEurope
SouthernEurope
WesternEurope
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
0 1 2 3 4
EstimatedEmigration
NZLAUS
VIRVCTTTOPRI
MTQLCAJAMHTI
GRDGLP
DOMCUWCUBBRBBHSATG
ABW
SLVPANNIC
MEXHNDGTMCRIBLZ
VUTSLBPNGNCL
FJI
KIRGUMFSM
USACAN
WSMTONPYF
VENURYSURPRYPERGUYGUFECUCOLCHLBRABOLARG
Australia/NewZealand
Caribbean
CentralAmerica
Melanesia
Micronesia
NorthernAmerica
Polynesia
SouthAmerica
1950
−195
5
1960
−196
5
1970
−197
5
1980
−198
5
1990
−199
5
2000
−200
5
2010
−201
5
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 1960-65
NorthernAmerica0 12
3
Africa
0
1
2
3
4
Europe
01
23
4
5
6
7
8
Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0123
4
5
6
7
Wes
tern
Asia
0
1
2
Sou
ther
nA
sia
01
2E
aste
rnA
sia
01
2
3
Oceania
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
0
1
23
wb11 2015 1960−1965 b 17.64
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 1960-65
NorthernAmerica0 12
3
Africa
0
1
2
3
4
Europe
01
23
4
5
6
7
8
Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0123
4
5
6
7
Wes
tern
Asia
0
1
2
Sou
ther
nA
sia
01
2E
aste
rnA
sia
01
2
3
Oceania
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
0
1
23
wb11 2015 1960−1965 b 17.64
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 1990-95
NorthernAmerica0 1 2 3 45
67
Africa
0
2
4
6
810
1214
16
Europe
0
2
4
6
8
1012
Eastern Europe & Central Asia 0123456
7
Wes
tern
Asia
01
23
4
56
7
Sou
ther
nA
sia
01
23
45
67
89
East
ern
Asia
01
23
45
6
7
Oceania
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
01
23 4 5
un15 2015 1990−1995 b 38.45
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 2010-15
NorthernAmerica0 1 2 34
56
7
Africa
0
2
4
6
810
Europe
02
4
6
8
10
Eastern Europe
& Central Asia
01
23
4
Western Asia024
6
8
10
12
14
Sou
ther
nA
sia
01
23
45
67
89
East
ern
Asia
01
23
45
6
7
8
Oceania
01
Latin America
& Caribbean
01
2 3 4
un15 2015 2010−2015 b 36.46
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 2010-15 - Male
NorthernAmerica0 12
3
Africa
0
1
2
3
45
Europe
01
23
4
5
Eastern Europe
& Central Asia
0
1
2
Western Asia 0123
4
5
6
7
8
Sou
ther
nA
sia
0
12
34
5Ea
ster
nAs
ia
0
1
2
3
Oceania
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
01
2
un15 2015 2010−2015 m 19.48
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Bilateral Patterns 2010-15 - Female
NorthernAmerica0 1
2
3
4
Africa
0
1
2
34
5E
urope0
12
3
4
5
Eastern Europe
& Central Asia
0
1
2
Western Asia012
3
4
5
6
Sou
ther
nA
sia
0
1
23
4E
aste
rnAs
ia
01
2
3
4
Oceania
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
0
12
un15 2015 2010−2015 f 17.77
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Validation - Reported Immigration Statistics
●●●●●● ●●●● ●●
●●●●●● ●
●●
●●● ●●●●
●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●● ●●● ●●● ● ●●●●● ●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●● ● ● ●
● ●●● ●
● ●●●● ●●● ● ●●●● ●●● ●●●●●●●
● ●●● ●
●●● ●●● ● ●●● ●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●● ● ●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●● ●● ●●
●●●●● ●● ●●● ● ●●●●●●●
Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium Bulgaria
Canada Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland
Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Moldova Netherlands
New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Slovakia
Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine United Kingdom USA
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Proportion from Estimated Immigration Flow
Pro
port
ion
from
Rep
orte
d Im
mig
ratio
n F
low
Dat
a
−2010
−2000
−1990
−1980Period Start
Origin● Africa
Asia
EuropeLatin America andthe CaribbeanNorthern America
Oceania
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Validation - Reported Emigration Statistics
●●●●
●●●●●●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●● ●● ●●
●●
●●
●●●
●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
● ●●●●●
●●●●
●
● ●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●
●
● ●●●●●●
● ●●●●●●
●
● ●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●
● ● ●●●●
●●●●
●●
United Kingdom
Russia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine
Luxembourg Macedonia Moldova Netherlands Norway Poland Romania
Iceland Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania
Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland Germany
Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Belarus Belgium Bulgaria
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Proportion from Estimated Emigration Flow
Pro
port
ion
from
Rep
orte
d E
mig
ratio
n F
low
Dat
a Destination● Africa
Asia
EuropeLatin America andthe CaribbeanNorthern America
Oceania
−2010
−2000
−1990
−1980Period Start
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Urban Region to Urban Region Flows
International data, when available, stop at the national level.
Issue related to international migration often occur at the local level.Simulate flows between the M origin urban areas in country i and Ndestination urban areas in country j from a multinomial distribution:
(z11, . . . , zNM) ∼ Mult(yij , [p11, . . . , pNM ])yij =
∑NM znm
(1)
where yij is the estimated bilateral international flow and theprobability of a region to region flow depends on Zipf’s gravity model:
pmn =POPm × POPn
DISTmn(2)
POP are taken from the UN World Urbanisation Prospects (2014)Distance from longitude and latitude coordinates.Moves from 200× 200 country to country flow tables to 1762× 1762urban area to urban area.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Urban Region to Urban Region Flows
International data, when available, stop at the national level.Issue related to international migration often occur at the local level.
Simulate flows between the M origin urban areas in country i and Ndestination urban areas in country j from a multinomial distribution:
(z11, . . . , zNM) ∼ Mult(yij , [p11, . . . , pNM ])yij =
∑NM znm
(1)
where yij is the estimated bilateral international flow and theprobability of a region to region flow depends on Zipf’s gravity model:
pmn =POPm × POPn
DISTmn(2)
POP are taken from the UN World Urbanisation Prospects (2014)Distance from longitude and latitude coordinates.Moves from 200× 200 country to country flow tables to 1762× 1762urban area to urban area.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Urban Region to Urban Region Flows
International data, when available, stop at the national level.Issue related to international migration often occur at the local level.Simulate flows between the M origin urban areas in country i and Ndestination urban areas in country j from a multinomial distribution:
(z11, . . . , zNM) ∼ Mult(yij , [p11, . . . , pNM ])yij =
∑NM znm
(1)
where yij is the estimated bilateral international flow and theprobability of a region to region flow depends on Zipf’s gravity model:
pmn =POPm × POPn
DISTmn(2)
POP are taken from the UN World Urbanisation Prospects (2014)Distance from longitude and latitude coordinates.Moves from 200× 200 country to country flow tables to 1762× 1762urban area to urban area.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Urban Region to Urban Region Flows
International data, when available, stop at the national level.Issue related to international migration often occur at the local level.Simulate flows between the M origin urban areas in country i and Ndestination urban areas in country j from a multinomial distribution:
(z11, . . . , zNM) ∼ Mult(yij , [p11, . . . , pNM ])yij =
∑NM znm
(1)
where yij is the estimated bilateral international flow and theprobability of a region to region flow depends on Zipf’s gravity model:
pmn =POPm × POPn
DISTmn(2)
POP are taken from the UN World Urbanisation Prospects (2014)Distance from longitude and latitude coordinates.
Moves from 200× 200 country to country flow tables to 1762× 1762urban area to urban area.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Urban Region to Urban Region Flows
International data, when available, stop at the national level.Issue related to international migration often occur at the local level.Simulate flows between the M origin urban areas in country i and Ndestination urban areas in country j from a multinomial distribution:
(z11, . . . , zNM) ∼ Mult(yij , [p11, . . . , pNM ])yij =
∑NM znm
(1)
where yij is the estimated bilateral international flow and theprobability of a region to region flow depends on Zipf’s gravity model:
pmn =POPm × POPn
DISTmn(2)
POP are taken from the UN World Urbanisation Prospects (2014)Distance from longitude and latitude coordinates.Moves from 200× 200 country to country flow tables to 1762× 1762urban area to urban area.
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Top 1000 Estimated Flows 2010-15
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.
Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
SSP Projection
Experts have next to no idea on global migration patterns post-2050.
UN experts set net migration counts in all countries to convergetowards zero after 2050.Wittgenstein/IIASA projections follow similar trend based onimmigration and emigration rates
This effectively subdues the role of migration as a component ofpopulation change. This is a bad idea as
1 Mass migration, or at least migration pressure, is a growing influencein many countries and is unlikely to end in 2050
2 Convergence to zero adjustment is justified in the WPP literature by acomplete lack of knowledge
Setting to zero is not an effective representation of uncertaintyImplies change points.Results in a global migration system in perfect balance.
Developed potential alternatives for net migration counts to matchSSPs
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Net Migration
● ●●● ●● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●● ●● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●● ●
●●●● ●● ●● ●● ●●● ●● ●●
●●● ●● ●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●● ●● ●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Africa Asia Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
−3
−2
−1
0
−12
−8
−4
0
−3
0
3
6
9
−4
−2
0
2.5
5.0
7.5
0.3
0.6
0.9
1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100
1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100
Time
Net
Mig
ratio
n (m
)
●WPP2015 Estimate WPP2015 Assumption Persistence Assumption Divergence Assumption
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Projected Population
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
Africa Asia Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000
3000
4000
5000
550
600
650
700
200
400
600
800
200
300
400
500
20
40
60
80
1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100
1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100 1950 2000 2050 2100
Time
Pop
ulat
ion
(m)
●WPP2015 Estimate WPP2015 Assumption Persistence Assumption Divergence Assumption
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Projected Population
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
Africa Asia Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
660
680
700
720
725
750
775
450
500
550
50
60
70
2040 2060 2080 2100 2040 2060 2080 2100 2040 2060 2080 2100
2040 2060 2080 2100 2040 2060 2080 2100 2040 2060 2080 2100
Time
Pop
ulat
ion
(m)
● WPP2015 Assumption Persistence Assumption Divergence Assumption
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Summary
Very limited comparable migration flow data available. Estimationmethods can help fill the gap.
General increase in numbers, crude rate fluctuates. Spike during1990-95. Recent downturn. Gender imbalances in flows quantified.
At aggregated levels minimum estimated flows seem plausible.Sensitive to the input (stock and demographic) data.
Forms a crude global demographic accounting system. Helps detectinconsistencies and errors in the demographic and stock data.
Current efforts on using estimates:1 Within bi-regional and multi-regional projection models2 Disaggregation to finer spatial scales
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Summary
Very limited comparable migration flow data available. Estimationmethods can help fill the gap.
General increase in numbers, crude rate fluctuates. Spike during1990-95. Recent downturn. Gender imbalances in flows quantified.
At aggregated levels minimum estimated flows seem plausible.Sensitive to the input (stock and demographic) data.
Forms a crude global demographic accounting system. Helps detectinconsistencies and errors in the demographic and stock data.
Current efforts on using estimates:1 Within bi-regional and multi-regional projection models2 Disaggregation to finer spatial scales
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Summary
Very limited comparable migration flow data available. Estimationmethods can help fill the gap.
General increase in numbers, crude rate fluctuates. Spike during1990-95. Recent downturn. Gender imbalances in flows quantified.
At aggregated levels minimum estimated flows seem plausible.Sensitive to the input (stock and demographic) data.
Forms a crude global demographic accounting system. Helps detectinconsistencies and errors in the demographic and stock data.
Current efforts on using estimates:1 Within bi-regional and multi-regional projection models2 Disaggregation to finer spatial scales
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Summary
Very limited comparable migration flow data available. Estimationmethods can help fill the gap.
General increase in numbers, crude rate fluctuates. Spike during1990-95. Recent downturn. Gender imbalances in flows quantified.
At aggregated levels minimum estimated flows seem plausible.Sensitive to the input (stock and demographic) data.
Forms a crude global demographic accounting system. Helps detectinconsistencies and errors in the demographic and stock data.
Current efforts on using estimates:1 Within bi-regional and multi-regional projection models2 Disaggregation to finer spatial scales
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Summary
Very limited comparable migration flow data available. Estimationmethods can help fill the gap.
General increase in numbers, crude rate fluctuates. Spike during1990-95. Recent downturn. Gender imbalances in flows quantified.
At aggregated levels minimum estimated flows seem plausible.Sensitive to the input (stock and demographic) data.
Forms a crude global demographic accounting system. Helps detectinconsistencies and errors in the demographic and stock data.
Current efforts on using estimates:1 Within bi-regional and multi-regional projection models2 Disaggregation to finer spatial scales
Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
Background Global Flows Regional Flows SSP Projections Summary
Further Details
Further detail on latest estimates in:Abel, G. J. (2016). Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows byGender between 1960 and 2015. Vienna Institute of DemographyWoking Papers 2/2016.
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Guy Abel Asian Demographic Research Institute
