Guillotreau-tuna Demand 10-05-2011

8/16/2019 Guillotreau-tuna Demand 10-05-2011

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/guillotreau-tuna-demand-10-05-2011 1/14

odéliser le marché mondial duRéunion MACROES, Paris (Jussieu), 9-11

mai !11

Workshop MACROES à Nantes, 14-15 avril2011



2. Que sait-on du fonctionnement desmarchés thoniers au niveau mondial ?

3. Implications des résultats pour lagestion des pêcheries thonières

"ntroduction1. Worshop ! l"#niversité de $antes les1%-1& avril 2'11 ( un des o)*ectifs+acroes rempli



# $or%sho& 'antes Modellin* *lo+al tuna

- ,"atelier a reu le soutien du pro*et +/0 et del"I4 et a été organisé sous le la)el I+50-/,I67.

- 18 participants9 dont 6ed :roves ;#/<= et <ale>uires ;$+4-$=9 enn@ un ;#niv. 6aiAan=9 4ransche ;#niv. tavanger=9 +aB $ielsen ;#niv.<anemar=9 0amon iméneC-6ori)io ;#niv. Duelva=9 /.+ullon et /. /ha)oud ;I0<=9 ha))ar aEr@ ;#niv.

7ortsmouth=...- 6hèmes a)ordés ( modèles I< marchés de laconserve en urope - spagne9 0o@aume-#ni-9modèle :I< 5ango ;7-conserve= et 6o@o ;,,-sashimi=9 modélisation de panel ;4rance=9 approche

réseau ;marché mondial=9 approche )ioéco ;Indien=.



uel.ues &hotos /###



2. Que sait-on du fonctionnement des

marchés thoniers au niveau mondial ? t0&es o mod2les (

- Mod2les de cointé*ration visant ! vériFer l"eBistence d"un marchéuni>ue horiContalement ;spatialement= et verticalement ;transmission des

changements de priB=. D@p. d"a)sence de coGts de transaction et d"unseul facteur varia)le.;Derric and >uires 1HHJ 5ose and +cIlgorm9 1HH8J :ordon andDannesson9 1HH8J un and Dsu 1HHJ un and /hiang 1HHHJ sche et al.91HHHJ aEr@ et al.9 2'''J sche et al. 1HHH9 2''29 2''%9 2''KJ aEr@ and4ofana9 2''% J :uillotreau et al. 2''&J $ielsen9 2''&J $ielsen et al.9 2''KJ>uires et al. 2''8J eon et al. 2''K9 iméneC-6ori)io et al. 2'1'...=- Mod2les de demande pour représenter les relations priB->uantité;estimation des coef d"élasticité et de LeBi)ilité=;Mitson and +a@nard 1H3J Ming 1H89J Wessels and Wilen 1HH%J Aenand 6roedson 1HH%J ales9 <urham and Wessels 1HHKJ $ielsen 1HHHJ5ertignac et al. 2'''J un and Dsieh 2'''J 6ada 2'''J /hiang et al.2''1J Aen 2''1J <aloonpate 2''2J 0eid et al. 2''3J 5a)ula and/ore@ 2''&J aEr@ and 5roAn 2''J :uillotreau et al. 2''J iméneC-

6ori)io et al. 2''HJ :arcia del Do@o et al 2'1'J un et al. 2'1'...=



+ultivariate procedure of ohansen )ased on an error correctionmodel ;/+=. ssuming that 7t is a vector Ahich contains prices9 inorder to chec Ahether there are one or several cointegrationrelationships in(

Ahere NiO-I P 1 P...P i9 for i O 19...9 n-19 O -I P 1 P...P n9 Iis a ; B = identit@ matriB9 <t is a vector of dumm@ varia)les;seasonal9 etc.= and R a vector of intercepts

O ST" Where T contains the r cointegration relationships

and S includes the ad*ustment speed parameters ofthe dependent varia)les toAards the long-rune>uili)rium represented )@ T"7t-n

4or the multivariate strateg@9 the ,7 test determines if thecolumns in the matriB sum to Cero9 leading to the conclusion

that the price series are pair-Aise co-integrated.

ointe*ration models(



Study Model Tuna markets Results

Herrick and Squires1989

Ravallion’s dynamic model(short-run and long-runtests)

Canned tuna in the S!"hailand and #hili$$ines

#rice linkages %et&een S and #hili$$ines markets!%ut not 'or "hailand

ose *c+lgorm 199, ivariate and multi-variatecointegration

ro.en /"! 0 and 2"in 3a$an

Su%stituta%ility %et&een 2" and /"! 2" and 0!not so much %et&een /" and 0

Sun and Hsu 1998

Sun and Chiang 1999

*ultivariate cointegration(/C*)

ro.en /" and 2" in"ai&an! 3a$an and South4orea

2" and /" e5hi%it similar long run $rice changetrends

Sun and 6ang 1999 *ultivariate

0R*0 &ith seasonal

ad7ustment

resh tuna in 3a$an and"ai&an

#rices linkages 'ound

Squires et al ::, ivariate cointegration ;SR <ranger causality

ro.en 2" and S43 in"hailand and S43 in 0mSamoa

Cointegration %et&een "hailand and 0m Samoa 'orS43 (leadershi$ o' angkok)

=o cointegration 'ound %et&een S43 and 2"

3eon et al ::> *ultivariate cointegration ;causality tests

ro.en S43 and 2" 0merican Samoa (#ago-#ago)! /uro$e (+taly!S$ain)! +vory Coast(0%id7ian)! 3a$an ("okyo)!atin 0merica (#uerto Rico

and /cuador)! and "hailand

<ood level o' integration %et&een all S43 markets

2" markets are not s$atially integrated (%et&een

+taly and "hailand)

=o integration %et&een S43 and 2"

3im?ne.-"ori%io et al:1:

*ultivariate cointegration ;

#arity tests ; causality

tests

ro.en 2" and S43 in"hailand! +taly! 3a$an!S$ain! rance! #uerto Ricoand /cuador! 0%id7an

Canned yello&'in in rance

and +taly

Canned ski$7ack in the 4!

<ermany! S0

<ood level o' integration %et&een all S43 marketsand %et&een all 2" markets at the hori.ontal level ;integration %et&een S43 and 2" in "hailand andS$ain or rance

Hori.ontal market integration on the canned tuna

markets 'or S43 (S0 and /uro$e) and $er'ect $ass-

through 'or S43! not 'or 2" in rance or +taly


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/guillotreau-tuna-demand-10-05-2011 8/14* =ielsen ::@

3emand models(

- ,inear or logarithmic- rdinar@ or inverse- +arshallian or Dicsian- 0otterdam or I<- tatic or d@namic- 4inal or derived demand- <isaggregated or aggregated data- U0 or #0 stimations-...



Study Model and market Own-price elasticity Flexibility

4itson and *aynard (198A) 3a$an 1A9 'or high-valued 'ish :>

"aya (1989) 3a$an 1:> 'or tuna home consum$tion :9A

6essels and 6ilen (199@) +nverse demand 3a$an :9A (&hole 3a$an)

1@: (northern 3a$an)

11@ (southern 3a$an)

1:8

:>1

:88

/ales! Burham 6essels (199>) +nverse demand 3a$an(high valued 'ish)

1,> :,:

/ales and 6essels (1999) +nverse demand 3a$an

(high valued 'ish andmedium quality 'ish)

:>A to :818 (high)

:>@, to 1::: (medium)

1 to 1A8

1:: to 1A@

"ada (:::) og ordinary demand(3a$an)

:8 ('ro.en tuna) 1

Sun and Hsieh (:::) "hailandese im$orts 'rom"ai&an 'ro.en tuna

D to : ::D to ::

E&en (::1) "hailandese im$orts 'rom0 - 'ro.en S43

19 :D

Chiang! ee and ro&n (::1) Rotterdam inversedemand system (3a$anauction market)

118 ('ro.en 2")111 ('ro.en /")

D988 ('ro.en ")

:81 ('ro.en 2") (scale elast):8, ('ro.en /")

:1,> ('ro.en ")

Sun and Chiang (:1:) <eneral syntheticinverse demand system(<S+BS) ("hailandcannery-grade and 3a$ansashimi-grade tuna)

1::D (frozen YFT Thailand)

0.979 (frozen SKJ Thailand)

0.778 (frozen YFT Tokyo)

0.833 (frozen BET Tokyo)

1.073 (frozen BFT Tokyo)

:99D (frozen YFT Thailand) (!ale)

1.0"1 (frozen SKJ Thailand)

1."8# (frozen YFT Tokyo)

1."00 (frozen BET Tokyo)

0.93" (frozen BFT Tokyo)

Ja&an and Asia




=ielsen (1999) +nverse demand (S$ain) AAA :A:

3a''ry and ro&n (::8) Bynamic 0+BS (4 Cannedtuna)

:19 to :8: (di''erent $roducts) 1D to D,

<uillotreau et al ::8 Bynamic ordinary *arshalliandemand (rance canned 2")

:1A >,9

3im?ne.-"ori%io et al ::9 "rans'er 'unction model(dynamic ordinary demand)(rance 'ro.en 2")

1@ to 1DD :,D to :8:

3im?ne.-"ori%io and <arcia

del Hoyo :1:

0+BS (canned tuna in S$ain) :A9 D,

Euro&e


Cam$%ell (199D) Retail S market 'or cannedtuna

:1, to :: D:: to ,D

ertignac et al (::1) inear demand 'unction &ith$oint elasticities ("hailand-6C#E cannedF 3a$an sashimi

1DD (#S 'leet)

DA ( 'leet)

:,D

:@:

#an and #ooley ::@

(cited in 4om$as et al :1:)

6C#E 'leet e5$orts to"hailand (canning) and 3a$an(sashimi)

1: (/" sashimi market)

,D (2" sashimi market)

19 (S43 can su$$ly increase)

111 (S43 can su$$ly decrease)

:1:

:1D

:D

::9

Baloon$ate (::) 0+BS Retail S market 'orcanned tuna (scan data)

1,> to 8: (%y 'irm 'or the %ig-A) :A, to :,:

4SA



7rices are not made locall@ )ut glo)all@( no single Leet or

countr@ can aEect the price level and changes in locallandings ma@ have little conse>uences on price levels;correlation )etAeen >uantit@ changes?= price indeB for tuna could )e constructed on that )asis ;isit an o)*ective for the group?=. price indeB )@ species couldserve as a )asis for Fshing agreements largel@ )ased so faron tonnage rather than value ;eBample of the outh 7aciFc

6una 6reat@J >uires et al. 2''8= or for a forAard maret.

:ood pass-through eEects( little maret poAer eBercised at

all stages of the value chain9 Aith some eBceptions ;canned V46 in urope=.

6Ao diEerent value chains ;,,-sashimi and 7-canner@=9maing 546 and somehoA 56 and ,5 separated marets./an Ae imagine more maret connections in the future ;e.g.

V46=?...

3. Implications des résultats5#1 Cointe*ration models



Can !e "o #$rther a%o$t the &arket inte"rationiss$e an' is it !orth!hile 'oin" it(ome ideas to move toAards eBplanations of the price d@namics(

,ooing for structural )reas matching the implementation of

management or trade polic@ measures ;e.g. glo)al sourcing of 7$:canneries decided )@ the # in 2''9 )an of 4<s hence lesssip*ac- )@ a feA pacers9 6/9...=.

tud@ing as@mmetr@ of price transmission along the chain Aith orAithout thresholds ;ined curve eEects9 menu costs9 60 and +-

60 cointegration modelsJ /han 1HH39 nders-ilos 2''19 aEr@2''%=

valuating maret poAer ;e.g. )@ the retailing industr@= or pricing-to-maret )ehaviour to loo at rent distri)ution eEects.

/onse>uences of too loA prices for primar@ Fsh ;elasticit@ ofsuppl@=?

7rice volatilit@ transmission through :0/D models ;Weaver X$atcher 2'''= or even )rea detection in the transmission of

volatilit@ ;ue9 DYrrman et al. 2''H=. 0ole of inventories ;/hiang etal. 2''1=? Is price sta)ilisation a desira)le o)*ective for the Ahole



5# 3emand models An-price elasticities have )een found relativel@ loA ;around '.2'=

for canned tuna and relativel@ high ;1.2' to 1.&'= for froCen tunaon average OZ Q-eEect Z 7-eEect at the eB-vessel stage.Bplanations? ;diEerentiation9 maret poAer of retailers9conversion coe[cient9 varia)le mar-up9 menu costs9 maretshares of suppliers?...=

n the sashimi-grade apanese tuna maret9 elasticities Aere

found close to unit@9 or even a )it higher for 546 compared tofroCen 56 and V46 ;un and /hiang 2'1'=. changes in productionlevels Aould have rather neutral eEects on revenues. apanese auction prices of froCen 56 and V46 not aEected )@ apanese import prices of froCen 56 and V469 )ut rather

responded to structural changes in the mareting channels andincreasing suppl@ of farmed 546 ;un and Wu 2''=. 4eA studies looing at cross-price elasticities )etAeen tuna andmeat products. ;e.g. # retail maret of canned tuna \]V O '.33;Ming 1H8= and '.K2 ;Aen and 6roedson 1HH%=9 OZsu)stituta)ilit@ )etAeen product groups=. What a)out other

demand shifters ;green demand9 emerging marets9 health-safet@9eBchan e rate income?...



)&pli*ations an' #$t$re tasks+ ma@ eBceed the marginal )eneFt of using it in a full maretmodel^^ 4ishing for the maret ma@ increase the rent and modif@the distri)ution of proFts )etAeen Fshers and oAners and alsohave Aelfare conse>uences ;5ertignac et al. 2''1=.

4leBi)ilit@ parameters as price responses to managementmeasures or to other suppl@ shocs ;energ@ cost9 a>uaculture9climate oscillations9 pirac@...= OZ need to com)ine demand modelsAith a more suppl@-side ;)ioeconomic= approach ;/amp)ell 1HH&J5ertignac et al. 2''1J 0eid et al. 2''3J /ha)oud 2'11=

#ncertaint@ also stems from the demand side( a lot to do Aithdemand shifters

,,-sashimi and 7-canner@( tAo independent value chains or one

single tuna maret ;via V46=?...

0esearch Aor to do on the Aa@ suppl@ meet demand ;panel dataanal@sis9 netAor approachJ_ see WolE 2'119 +ullon 2'11=

ther pieces of Aor of interest for +acroes;?=( determinants of4< Fshin ;alladarre :uillotreau <a orn 2'1' WolE uires

Documents

Guillotreau-tuna Demand 10-05-2011