S U B N A T I O N A L

USING INFORM

TO ASSESS CRISIS AND DISASTER RISK WITHIN A

COUNTRY OR REGION

Guidance Note

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INFORM is an open source risk assessment methodology for humanitarian crises and disasters. An INFORM Subnational risk index shows a detailed picture of risk and its components that is comparable across a single region or country. It can be used by decision-makers to analyse and visualise risk. The model can support decisions on crisis and disaster response, preparedness, and resilience, as well as sustainable development.

The INFORM initiative already publishes a global INFORM risk index, which consists of a risk assessment for 191 countries at the national level. An INFORM Subnational model uses the same risk assessment methodology and development process, but is adapted to regional or national level. The result is a risk model for humanitarian crises and disasters that has the same features and benefits as the global model, but is subnational (province, municipality, village) in resolution.

Developing an INFORM Subnational model is a locally owned and managed, cost-effective process that is supported by the global INFORM initiative – a collaboration of humanitarian, development, government and technical partners. This ensures that each model has local buy-in, is used in local analysis and decision-making processes and is adapted according to local risks, but can draw on global resources and expertise and is validated according to global standards and best practice.

A key feature of INFORM is that it is developed collaboratively, resulting in an open, shared analysis of risk that can be used by many organisations. This is intended to help ensure that collective actions and resources that address crisis and disaster risk are better aligned with the location and nature of the risks themselves.

INTRODUCTION TO INFORM SUBNATIONAL

The purpose of this document is to provide a brief introduction to the INFORM Subnational process for decision-makers. It covers:

• How an INFORM Subnational model works and how you can use it

• An introduction to the development process, including roles and responsibilities

• The support available and the required resources.

This document is designed to provide an introduction and to help you decide if INFORM Subnational can support your analysis and planning.

Detailed, technical guidance is also available on the INFORM website.

www.inform-index.org

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FIGURE 1 Example of the results of an INFORM Subnational model

Risk maps

Risk valuest

RA

NK

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RM

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K

3 Y

R T

RE

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3 7.9 à 8.6 à 5.5 10.0 7.2 æ 6.9 7.4

111 2.9 à 3.0 à 5.1 0.3 1.7 à 2.3 1.0

37 4.8 à 6.3 à 3.6 8.0 3.5 à 3.3 3.6

Angola 62 4.2 à 2.3 à 2.0 2.6 4.6 æ 4.5 4.7

144 2.3 à 2.0 à 3.7 0.0 1.7 æ 2.0 1.3

Argentina 138 2.4 à 2.4 à 3.1 1.7 1.5 à 1.9 1.1

Armenia 100 3.2 à 2.1 à 3.8 0.1 3.0 à 2.4 3.6

Australia 144 2.3 à 3.4 à 5.7 0.1 1.7 à 0.6 2.7

Austria 167 1.7 à 1.3 à 2.3 0.1 2.2 à 0.8 3.4

Azerbaijan 80 3.8 æ 2.3 æ 3.8 0.5 4.6 à 1.8 6.5

Bahamas 154 2.0 à 1.7 à 3.2 0.0 1.6 à 2.3 0.9

Bahrain 188 0.8 à 0.1 à 0.1 0.1 1.6 à 1.9 1.2

Bangladesh 20 5.9 ä 7.2 à 8.6 5.0 4.9 ä 3.9 5.7

Barbados 170 1.6 à 0.9 à 1.7 0.0 1.7 ä 2.6 0.8

Belarus 161 1.9 à 1.6 à 1.8 1.3 1.2 à 1.0 1.3

Belgium 180 1.2 à 0.7 à 1.4 0.0 1.8 à 0.8 2.7

Belize 104 3.1 à 2.7 à 4.8 0.0 2.2 à 3.2 1.0

Benin 89 3.5 à 1.3 à 1.2 1.3 4.6 à 6.4 2.2

Bhutan 111 2.9 à 1.5 à 2.8 0.1 3.3 à 4.9 1.2

Bolivia 100 3.2 à 2.2 à 3.4 0.7 2.8 à 3.4 2.2

70 4.0 ä 2.9 à 3.8 1.8 4.8 ä 2.6 6.5

104 3.1 à 1.5 à 2.6 0.3 4.0 à 4.3 3.6

94 3.4 à 3.7 æ 3.7 3.6 2.5 ä 2.5 2.5In

depth detail

Reg

ion

Province

Coun

try

Village

A map showing how crisis and disaster

risk varies across a country or region.

A table showing comparable values for

risk and all of its components for all

geographical units in the model.

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Like the global version of INFORM, an INFORM Subnational model combines and simplifies a lot of information about crisis and disaster risk using a composite risk index. It includes data on hazards and exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity and allows you to compare the level of risk and all of its components across a region or country. It is also possible to track risk trends using an INFORM model once you have multiple years of data. The geographical resolution of the model will vary depending on data availability, but it is at least Admin Level 1 (province) and can be higher (municipality, village).

The development process for an INFORM Subnational model is a consultative process. The development phase will determine the specific components of risk relevant to your local context and practical needs, and identify available data to measure those risks.

Dimensions

Categories

Components

Vulnerability

INFORM

Institutional InfrastructureVulnerablegroups

Socio-economic

Lack of coping capacity

Remains constant for all models

Tailored to your speci�c context

Ear

thqua

ke

Tsun

ami

Flood

Tropic

al c

ycl

one

Dro

ught

Dev

elopm

ent

& d

epri

vat

ion (5

0%

)

Inaq

ualit

y (2

5%

)

Aid

dep

enden

cy (2

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)

Upro

ote

d p

eople

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er v

ulner

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ups

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astr

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ess

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Cur

rent

confl

ict

inte

nsi

ty

Pro

ject

ed c

onfl

ict

risk

Hazard & exposure

VulnerabilityLack of coping

capacity

Natural Human Vulnerablegroups

Socio-economic

Institutional Infrastructure

FIGURE 2 INFORM

conceptual framework

HOW INFORM SUBNATIONAL WORKS

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INFORM Subnational can help

Improve outcomes for people affected by crises and disasters

How do I measure and compare risks?

How

can

I c

oord

inat

e ri

sk m

anag

emen

t ac

tions?Where to allocate preparedness

and resilience resources?

Wh

at a

re t

he

mo

st i

mp

ort

ant

risk

fac

tors

?

How do risk and its components change over time?

Develop a shared analysis of risk

Know

what

is

hap

pen

ing

in y

our

area

of

oper

atio

n

Where are people most at risk from crisis and disaster?

Ho

w d

o w

e p

lan

fo

r re

sili

ence

?

Sup

po

rt t

he

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

nat

ion

al r

isk

ass

essm

ents

How can we use risk analysis in the strategic planning process?

Plan development interventions

How do we coordinate risk management across sectors?

Implement the Sendai Framework for Action

Plan for civil protection and disaster risk management activities

An INFORM Subnational model can be used to analyse and compare risk and its components across a region or country. This can help you identify at-risk areas and determine the major driving factors of risk, which can help you decide how to manage it. The results of INFORM are therefore a valuable input into any analysis that will support planning or resource allocation processes. Because the development of INFORM is collaborative and the results are open, it is particularly useful in supporting any decision-making process that involves a wide range or large number of actors, for example strategic humanitarian, development or government planning.

For example, an INFORM Subnational can provide:

• A quantitative contribution to national government or intergovernmental risk assessment and development planning, which takes into account all major risks and sectors.

• A means to integrate crisis and disaster risk management into existing government, humanitarian, development, DRR and preparedness planning processes.

FIGURE 3 Using INFORM

Subnational

USING INFORM SUBNATIONAL

• A process for developing a shared analysis of crisis and disaster risk among government entities, humanitarian and development organisations and donors to ensure their collective actions are better aligned to reduce and manage risk.

• Quantitative analysis validated to global standards that can support the Common Country Assessment, United Nations Development Assistance Framework, Humanitarian Program Cycle, implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Resilient Systems Analysis etc.

These uses can lead to better outcomes for institutions and people facing crisis and disaster risk.

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Sudan

Eritrea

Djibouti

Ethiopia

Somalia

KenyaBurundi

Rwanda

Uganda

South Sudan

Greater Horn of Africa regionThe INFORM Greater Horn of Africa model is part of an initiative of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and OCHA to improve IGAD’s ability to analyse, visualise and disseminate information to support the prevention, preparedness and response to humanitarian crises in the region. The model will be updated regularly to support regional coordination and prioritise humanitarian, development, risk management and resilience investments.

ColombiaThe development of the INFORM Colombia model was initiated by OCHA and UNICEF. It is a municipal-level risk index, which identifies threats, vulnerabilities and response capacities throughout the country. The results have been used in the Humanitarian Needs Overview 2016 and by UNICEF planners and donors. The model includes specific components to evaluate risk levels for children and adolescents. Partners are now investigating if the model can be extended to cover additional countries in the region.

FIGURE 4 Examples of INFORM

Subnational models

Some examples of how INFORM Subnational models are being used.

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Gambia

Senegal

Mauritania

Burkina Faso

Nigeria

Cameroon

Mali Niger Chad

LebanonINFORM Lebanon was developed by the Lebanon Joint Analysis Unit, which supports the Resident/Humanitarian Coordinator and is a collaboration of humanitarian, development and governmental partners that supports cross sectoral planning at the national level. INFORM Lebanon is being embedded in regional processes and coordination mechanisms to help all partners quantify and prioritise humanitarian and disaster risks in Lebanon in the context of the regional Syrian Crisis Response.

Sahel regionThe regional INFORM Sahel model was initiated by the Emergency Response and Preparedness Group of the regional Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) and is managed by OCHA. The INFORM model is being used to support the Humanitarian Programme Cycle and coordinated preparedness actions. Partners hope to use the model to improve cooperation between humanitarian and development actors in managing risk and building resilience across the region.

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The development of an INFORM Subnational model is initiated and lead by local or regional actors. In other words, by one or a coalition of actors working to manage the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters, or to plan for risk-informed development. They could be from government, intergovernmental organisations, non-governmental organisations or any other relevant group. For example, the development of INFORM Subnational models so far has been led by regional organisations, UN Resident Coordinators and partnerships of UN agencies. A key part of the development process is consultation and collaboration with many different actors, so many organisations can contribute to the process and benefit from the outcomes.

FIGURE 5 INFORM

Subnational users

WHO CAN DEVELOP AND USE AN INFORM SUBNATIONAL MODEL?

Governments

NGO

s

Institutions

Academ

ic

Peop

le

INFORM Subnational

usersU

nite

d na

tion

s

Civil Society

All the results of any INFORM model are open-source. Therefore, anyone can access and use an INFORM Subnational model, from governments to civil society groups and even concerned citizens. The methodology used to develop INFORM is also flexible, so INFORM Subnational models can be adapted by individual organisations and users for their own specific needs.

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Get readyIdentify resources for the development process, preliminary mapping of available data and important partners and plan the development workshop

Convene the partners and gather the dataRun a workshop to design the risk model for your country or region and identify the best data

Build the modelSupport from technical experts to build, re�ne and review the model

Communicate the resultsWeb platform available to share and use the results

Use and maintain the modelEnsure the analysis supports decision -making processes and the model is regularly updated (usually annually)

USEDEVELOPMENTPREPARATION

Feasibility and applicationConsult with partners, assess the uses and feasibility of an INFORM Subnational model and apply for support from INFORM

HOW IT WORKSThe development of an INFORM Subnational model is a locally owned and managed process that is supported by the global INFORM initiative. The basic process involves taking the conceptual framework used to measure risk in the global INFORM model, adapting it to the local context and identifying existing subnational level data to measure risk.

The local lead organisation/s and partners are responsible for managing the development process and ultimately for owning, maintaining and using the model. The global INFORM initiative provides guidance, technical support and tools, especially during the development phase. It validates the Subnational model to ensure it complies with global standards.

Many major international humanitarian and development organisations are part of the INFORM initiative at the global level and can therefore leverage and support the participation of their local counterparts in the development process.

THE PROCESSThe development process broadly consists of a preparation phase, a development phase and a use phase. During the preparation phase, the local lead works with partners to assess feasibility, build support and identify resources for the development of the model.

The development phase consists of identifying the most important risks to include in the model and the data available for measuring them through a workshop and follow-up research. Help is available during this phase and the global INFORM initiative will provide technical support to build the model itself.

During the use phase, the local lead and partners ensure that the model is used, maintained and refined as needed and they have access to ongoing technical support if required.

DEVELOPING AN INFORM SUBNATIONAL MODEL

FIGURE 6 INFORM

Subnational Process

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ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIESAll INFORM models are intended to be sustainable and regularly updated, rather than a one-off analysis. This is the joint responsibility of the local lead organisation/s and the INFORM global initiative.

The local lead is responsible for initiating and managing the development process at the regional or national level, including:

1. consultation with relevant partners;

2. ensuring the required resources are in place to develop and maintain the model;

3. making contacts with any local data providers; and

4. making sure the model is communicated and effectively used.

The global INFORM initiative will provide coordination and technical support. This includes:

1. guidance on the development process;

2. access to trained experts to support the development process locally;

3. technical support during the development of the model itself and as required during the maintenance phase;

4. validation of the model according to global standards; and

5. access to tools for updating, sharing and visualising the model results.

RESOURCESThe local lead is responsible for direct costs in developing and maintain the Subnational model. This primarily consists of staff or contractor time for managing the development process. Some organisations may have staff that can carry out this role. However, most will want to hire a contractor to support with the initial development. INFORM can provide access to a pool of trained consultants for this purpose. The local lead contracts them directly, normally for a total of around 30 days. Maintenance can usually be covered by regular staff.

All costs associated with support from the global INFORM initiative are covered by INFORM partners.

FIGURE 7 INFORM Subnational

decision tree

Yes No

Yes No

Yes No

YesNo

Could an open, shared risk analysis help you and your partners better manage crisis and disaster risk?

Identify resources

No need to initiate

Is there a local leadership entity (government or humanitarian/ development organisation/s) that could lead and convene the development process?

Does adequate data already exist at subnational level to populate the model?

Identify local lead organisation/s

Can you identify resources to develop and maintain the model on a sustainable basis?

Are you sure that your planning process cannot use an existing subnational risk model or the global INFORM model?

Consider focusing on improving available data

Find out more and apply to develop and INFORM Subnational model

YesNo

Consider using or adapting an existing model

GETTING STARTED

Starting the INFORM Subnational development process is simple. For further information, consult the detailed technical guidance or contact INFORM: contact@inform-index.org

Then fill out an application form, available on the INFORM website: www.inform-index.org

INFORM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission. INFORM partners include:

Other INFORM partners are welcome. Partners commit to do one or more of: 1) facilitate the use of their data in INFORM, 2) provide expert guidance for the INFORM initiative, 3) provide in-kind or financial support.

Note: The geographical boundaries and names shown and the designations used in this report are not warranted to be error free nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement or acceptance by INFORM or any INFORM partner organisation. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report. All information was believed to be correct as of November 2015. Please check www.inform-index.org for the latest results.

For more information, go to www.inform-index.org.

S U B N A T I O N A L