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Guanghua Wan Principal Economist
Main Messages
• Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects
• … leading to enormous challenges possibly including environmental degradation
• But urbanization can help!• To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization
policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s urbanization and late comer’s advantage
1980-2010 2010-20400
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)
Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia India China, People's Rep. ofRest of Asia & Pacific
Incr
ease
in U
rban
Pop
ulati
on (m
illio
n) 1.06 billion1 billion
Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
China, People's Rep. of
Bhutan
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America and Car-ibbean
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate
10% 49%210 years
9% 51%105 years
12% 51%150 years
11% 51%95 years
12% 50%90 years
12% 54%65 years
10% 52%60 years
10% 51%55 years
11% 51%61 years
Unique feature 1: very fast speed
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world…
Mumbai
Kolkata
KarachiLa
gos
Shenzhen
Seoul/Inch
eon
Taipei,China
Chennai
Bogota
ShanghaiLim
a
BeijingDelhi
Kinshasa
Manila
Tehran
Jakarta
Tianjin
Bangalore
Ho Chi Minh City
Cairo
Baghdad
Shenyang
Hyderabad
São Paulo0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007
Den
sity
(per
son/
m2)
Asia & the Pacific (17/25)AfricaEurope Latin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North Africa
Source: www.citymayors.com
Unique feature 3: many megacitiesMegacities, 2010
ASIA: 12/23
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unique feature 4: low starting base
19501955
19601965
19701975
19801985
19901995
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Level of Urbanization by Region (%)
Leve
l of U
rban
izati
on (%
)
52%
43%
67%
63%
Northern America
Europe
Latin America & Caribbean
WORLD
ASIA & PACIFIC
Africa
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
Asia Non-Asia0
5
10
15
20
25
12
21
Urban Primacy (%, 2009)
Ratio
of P
opul
ation
in L
arge
st C
ities
ove
r U
rban
Pop
ulati
on (%
)
Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
… thus more and bigger megacities are emerging
Megacities, 2025
ASIA: 21/37
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious
• Growing inequalities
• Rising urban crimes
• Expansion of slums
• Above all, environmental degradation Pollution
Vulnerability to flooding
67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard
Ahw
az
Sana
ndaj
Kerm
ansh
ah
Kanp
ur
Luck
now
Qom
Khor
amab
ad
Al A
in
Kolk
ata
Xini
ng
Fari
daba
d
Mex
ical
i
Mum
bai
Ilam
Bush
ehr
Jinan
Patn
a
Abu
Dha
bi
Xi'a
n
Qaz
vin
Chen
gdu
Shen
yang
Vara
nasi
Wuh
an
Shiji
azhu
ang
Kars
Ara
k
Tian
jin
Den
izli0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 Cities with PM10 above 100 ug/m3 (2008-2009)
PM10
Lev
el (m
icro
gram
s/cu
bic
met
er) Asia and the Pacific (34/57)
Non-Asia and the Pacific
EU standard
Source: WHO (2012).
Asia Non-Asia0
102030405060708090
100 97%
18%
Growth of Per Capita CO2 Emissions over 2000-2008 (%)
CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
… and three of the top five CO2 emitting economies are in Asia.
China, People's Rep. of
United States India Russian Federa-tion
Japan0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
Top 5 Countries in terms of CO2 Emissions
CO2
emis
sion
s (k
t)
Environment may degrade further with growth
Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve
05
10
15
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns (
ton
s/c
apita
)
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)
2010=$6,107 Peak=$40,9712010=$6,107 Peak=$40,971
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
CO2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
2
4
6
8
10
12
3.4 3.5
5.6
7.6
9.310.2
Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC
CO2
emis
sion
s (t
ons/
capi
ta)
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
Asia is more vulnerable to coastal flooding
Urban population
at Risk (million)
Share of Population at
Risk (%)
Urban Area at Risk
('000 km2)
Share of Area at Risk (%)
Africa 32 11 18 6
Asia and Pacific 251 18 129 11
Latin America 24 8 42 6
Europe 40 7 56 7
Risk of Coastal Flooding by Region, 2000
Source: ADB estimates based on McGranahan et al. 2007.
Coastal flooding is clustered in PRC, South & Southeast Asia: Top 15 cities, 2000
Country CityPopulation at risk (%)
Population at risk ('000)
City Area at risk (km2)
Area at risk (%)
PRC Tianjin 100.0 5,500 2081 100.0
PRC Panjin 100.0 1,000 690 100.0
Bangladesh Khulna 99.9 1,100 394 99.8
PRC Nantong 99.8 1,000 286 99.9
PRC Changzhou 99.0 2,000 362 99.0
PRC Jiangyin 96.8 1,200 492 96.8
PRC Suzhou 95.8 1,300 368 91.2
Indonesia Palembang 94.2 1,300 473 89.5
Thailand Bangkok 93.3 8,800 4805 80.2
PRC Wuxi 91.1 1,300 397 91.0
PRC Shanghai 90.8 14,000 2416 98.2
India Kolkata 89.0 14,000 1441 62.9
PRC Ningbo 85.6 1,700 779 85.6Indonesia Ujung Pandang 85.4 1,200 295 68.7
Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh 79.3 4,400 890 72.6Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Inland flooding is also serious: Top 15 cities, 2000
Country CityPopulation at risk (%)
Population at risk ('000)
City Area at risk (km2)
Area at risk (%)
Cambodia Phnom Penh 99.0 988 204 99.0
PRC Wuhan 82.0 5300 956 82.0
Indonesia Palembang 80.0 1100 257 49.0
India Patna 72.0 1100 436 72.0
Bangladesh Dhaka 60.0 5400 680 48.0
PRC Nanjing 56.0 2200 749 56.0
Vietnam Ho Chi Minh 50.0 2800 306 25.0
PRC Tianjin 50.0 2800 795 38.0
PRC Huangshi 50.0 624 170 45.0
PRC Huainan 50.0 614 277 49.0
PRC Wuhu 47.0 552 140 48.0
Thailand Bangkok 46.0 4400 2165 36.0
PRC Bangbu 44.0 510 198 44.0
India Guwahati 44.0 507 159 35.0
India Allahabad 42.0 665 230 43.0Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Vulnerability will rise with urbanization
2010 20250
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
154 198
63
92 83
115
3
4
East Asia South Asia
Popu
latio
n at
Ris
k (m
illio
n)
Coastal Flooding
410 M
303 M
2010 20250
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
141 192
63
91 33
46
8
11
Southeast Asia Central and West Asia
Inland Flooding
341 M
245 M
Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious...
• Low level = a long way to go
• Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn
• More & bigger megacities = hard to manage
• More slums = higher vulnerability
But, urban agglomeration can help
• Service sector pollutes less
• Manufacturers relocate
• Efficient provision of infrastructure and services
• Better quality of life
• Innovation and higher labor productivity
• Nurture property owners and middle clss
• And ...
The growth/composition/technical impacts of urbanization on environment
The growth impact may be negative
The composition effect is positive
Technical effect is also positive
Most importantly, Asia as a late comer can
leapfrog R&D and technology
… and for adopting regulations timely
Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time
1020
3040
5060
PM10
Lev
el (u
g/m
3)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u
01
23
CO2
emiss
ions (
mt/c
apita
)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
co2hat1_u 2000s
1990s
2000s
1990s
2000s
CO2PM10
Environment-Urbanization Curves
Source: ADB estimates.
Green urbanization can help shift the curves further
• Unique patterns of urbanization lead to megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts
• Exploit late comer advantage: import or R&D, smart grid, circular economy, clean energy, ….
• Timely introduction of regulations, and better financing and transparency: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increased block tariffs, …
Conclusions
• It is counter-productive to contain urbanization, even for environmental concerns
• But, urbanization must be steered into a green path that exploits own unique features
• Asia can achieve green urbanization!
Thank Youwww.adb.org