Growing Cooler: What it meansGrowing Cooler: What it means

Meeting the growing demand forMeeting the growing demand forconveniently located homes inconveniently located homes inwalkable neighborhoods couldwalkable neighborhoods couldsignificantly reduce the growthsignificantly reduce the growthin the number of milesin the number of milesAmericans drive, shrinking theAmericans drive, shrinking thenationnation’’s carbon footprint whiles carbon footprint whilegiving people more housinggiving people more housingchoiceschoices

But Will It Happen?But Will It Happen?

Do Americans Want More Do Americans Want More compact development?compact development?

High priorities:

69% - Dependency on oil68% - Health care costs64% - Education62% - Jobs and the economy56% - The war in Iraq56% - Public safety

45% - Global warming and climate change

High priorities:High priorities:

69% 69% -- Dependency on oilDependency on oil68% 68% -- He lth care costsHealth care costs64% 64% -- EducationEducation62% 62% -- Jobs and the economyJobs and the economy56% 56% -- The war in IraqThe war in Iraq56% 56% -- Public safetyPublic safety

45% 45% -- Global warming and climate changeGlobal warming and climate change

National Priorities: National Priorities: Concern over oil dependency sky highConcern over oil dependency sky high

Which of the following national issues do you consider a priority? After each one, please indicate if it is a low, medium, or high priority for the country? Are there any other national issues that were not mentioned that are high priority to you? If so, what is the issue?

Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive

•• 93% agree 93% agree -- Our country needs to reduce Our country needs to reduce our dependence on oil and find renewable our dependence on oil and find renewable sources of energysources of energy

•• 92% agree 92% agree -- Gas prices are likely to rise Gas prices are likely to rise higher and higher in the coming yearshigher and higher in the coming years

Americans believe personal and national security at stake

Americans believe personal and Americans believe personal and national security at stakenational security at stake

Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive

Survey: Survey: •• 6 in 106 in 10 prospective homebuyers prospective homebuyers

chose chose walkable walkable neighborhoodsneighborhoods with less time with less time spent drivingspent driving

•• AfricanAfrican--Americans and Hispanics Americans and Hispanics even more likely to prefer even more likely to prefer compact neighborhoodscompact neighborhoods

•• So rce 2 4 p l y Na i A oc t on o Source: 2004 poll by National Association of R t rs n S a rowth m ricRealtors and Smart Growth America

Is there a market for walkable Is there a market for walkable neighborhoods?neighborhoods?

The Senior Tsunami

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Y e a r

0

50 0

1 ,00 0

1 ,50 0

2 ,00 0

Thou

sand

sPe

ople

Tur

ning

65

in Y

ear

Realtors: Stronger Consumer Preference Realtors: Stronger Consumer Preference for Smart Growthfor Smart Growth

• After hearing detailed descriptions of two communities (smart growth vs. conventional sprawl), 55% prefer the smart growth community.

• 61% of people ho thou ht they ill bu a house in the next 3 years are more likely to look for a home in a “smart-growth”community than a “sprawl” community.

• African-Americans and Hispanics even more likely to prefer compact neighborhoods

•• After hearing detailed descriptions of two After hearing detailed descriptions of two communities (smart growth vs. conventional communities (smart growth vs. conventional sprawl), sprawl), 55% prefer the smart growth 55% prefer the smart growth community. community.

•• 61% of people who thought they will buy a 61% of people who thought they will buy a house in the next 3 yearshouse in the next 3 years are more likely to are more likely to look for a home in a look for a home in a ““smartsmart--growthgrowth””community than a community than a ““sprawlsprawl”” community. community.

•• AfricanAfrican--Americans and Hispanics even more Americans and Hispanics even more likely to prefer compact neighborhoodslikely to prefer compact neighborhoods

Source: Community Preference Survey 2004

Decline in Households with Kids Decline in Households with Kids

HouseholdHousehold 19601960 20002000 20252025

With With ChildrenChildren 48%48% 33%33% 28%28%

Without Without ChildrenChildren 52%52% 67%67% 72%72%

Single Single PersonPerson 13%13% 26%26% 28%28%

Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD, 2003.

2003 housing supply vs. 2025 demand2003 housing supply vs. 2025 demand

Undersupply: 1/3 of those living in autoUndersupply: 1/3 of those living in auto--oriented would prefer oriented would prefer walkablewalkable

W a lk to s to r e s ,lib r a r ie s ,

r e s tau r a n ts

L iv e w ith in4 m ile s o f

w o rk o r s c h o o l

E n jo y aliv e ly , m ix ed

u s e n e ig b o rh oo d

3 3 % 3 3 %

2 3 %

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0 %

"I c ur ren t ly l iv e in a s ub u rb b u t w o u ld l ik e to m ov eto a h ig h e r den s ity , h ig h e r am enity a re a s o I c an .. ."

Source: Housing preference survey of 1450 Atlanta residents, SMARTRAQ 2003

These mixed use neighborhoods could be anywhere - in urban or suburban locations – though typically in centers and corridors

To get there from here, To get there from here, we need we need ……

ore ch in

• Ve cleen ort tsing loca ions

More choice in:More choice in:

•• VehiclesVehicles•• FuelsFuels•• TransportationTransportation•• Housing locationsHousing locations

How will we build for How will we build for the next 100 million?the next 100 million?

/ o the bu ldings we’l abit i 2050 have yet to be built

1/2 of the buildings expected in 2030 don’t exist today

2/3 2/3 of the buildings weof the buildings we’’ll inhabit in ll inhabit in 2050 2050 have yet to be builthave yet to be built

1/21/2 of the buildings expected in of the buildings expected in 2030 don2030 don’’t exist todayt exist today

Key PrinciplesKey Principles

•• Set targetsSet targets for CO2 emissions and align for CO2 emissions and align federal, state, local activities to meet themfederal, state, local activities to meet them

•• Dramatically expand Dramatically expand transportation optionstransportation options•• Help communities Help communities rewrite the rules rewrite the rules of of

developmentdevelopment•• Cre te Create positive incentivespositive incentives and eliminate and eliminate

perverse incentivesperverse incentives

Federal policy optionsFederal policy options

• New vision and purpose for ationa transportation program

• Incentives to build green, transit-accessible, affordable in ex sting a eas

•• New vision and purpose for national New vision and purpose for national transportation program transportation program

•• Incentives to build green, transitIncentives to build green, transit--accessible, accessible, affordable in existing areasaffordable in existing areas

““Green TEAGreen TEA””

Transportation policy Transportation policy IS IS energy and climate policyenergy and climate policy

•• Replace 1956 vision with 21st century visionReplace 1956 vision with 21st century vision

•• Stop linking VMT growth to fundingStop linking VMT growth to funding

•• Start linking to performance and accountabilityStart linking to performance and accountability

•• Empower metro communities to meet their goals Empower metro communities to meet their goals and challengesand challenges

State policy optionsState policy options

Require metros transportation and development Require metros transportation and development plans to account for GHG emissionsplans to account for GHG emissions•• CaliforniaCalifornia’’s SB 375 (proposed)s SB 375 (proposed)

Require major developments to account for Require major developments to account for GHG emissionsGHG emissions

Align investments with smart planningAlign investments with smart planning

Local policy optionsLocal policy options

•• Remove regulations that outlaw Remove regulations that outlaw traditional, mixedtraditional, mixed--use, use, walkablewalkabledevelopmentsdevelopments

•• Streamline approvals for green Streamline approvals for green neighborhood development (adopt LEEDneighborhood development (adopt LEED--ND or similar standards)ND or similar standards)

Other reasons to choose compact Other reasons to choose compact development as GHG strategydevelopment as GHG strategy

•• Unlike others, a net Unlike others, a net economic benefit economic benefit

•• Multiple Multiple ““coco--benefitsbenefits””Energy independenceEnergy independence, ,

lliving options, revitalization, iving options, revitalization, preservation, healthpreservation, health

•• We have the technology!We have the technology!

5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA

Outcomes in ArlingtonOutcomes in Arlington

•• 73.3% of patrons walk to transit73.3% of patrons walk to transit; over 58,000 trips ; over 58,000 trips dailydaily

•• 38% of residents near stations take transit to work38% of residents near stations take transit to work

•• 12% of Arlington County households don12% of Arlington County households don’’t own t own carscars----triple the regional aver ge triple the regional average

•• Corridor produces 32.8% of the CountyCorridor produces 32.8% of the County’’s real s real estate tax revenue from 7.6% of its land areaestate tax revenue from 7.6% of its land area

•• Arlington has the Arlington has the lowest property taxlowest property tax of any major of any major jurisdiction in Northern Virginiajurisdiction in Northern Virginia

Source: Source:

Reconne ting me i a Reconnecting America, Hi n in P a n SightHidden in Plain Sight 200, 2005

Keys to Success in ArlingtonKeys to Success in Arlington

•• Took full advantage of transit investmentTook full advantage of transit investment

•• Planned aheadPlanned ahead

•• Engaged citizens Engaged citizens -- and responded to them and responded to them -- over the long haulover the long haul

•• Responded to the marketResponded to the market

•• Flexible and adaptableFlexible and adaptable

LEED-ND: New Standards for

Neighborhood Development

Can we win support for these policies?Can we win support for these policies?

Some hopeful signs Some hopeful signs ……

REALTORS/SGA Poll 10/07REALTORS/SGA Poll 10/07

“New home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in very urban areas to shorten commutes and prevent more traffic congestion.”

61% Agree (33% strongly)

“Business and homes should be built closer together, so that stores and shops are within walking distance and don't require the use of an automobile.”

57% Agree (31% strongly)

“New home construction should be limited in outlying areas and encouraged in very urban areas to shorten commutes and prevent more traffic congestion.”

61% Agree (33% strongly)

“Business and homes should be built closer together, so that stores and shops are within walking distance and don't require the use of an automobile.”

57% Agree (31% strongly)

National ~ October 5, 7, 9-10, 2007 SLIDE 29

Three-fourths of Americans believe public transportation and smarter development will do more to

cure traffic than building new roads.“Which of the following proposals is the best long-term solution to reducing traffic in your area?”

49%

26%

21%

Improve public transportation

Develop communities where people do not have to drive as much

Build new roads

National ~ October 5, 7, 9-10, 2007 SLIDE 30

“Now thinking about the environment... Climate change and energy security are of increasing concern to many people. I will read you a list of approaches to reducing energy use. After each one please tell me

if you would approve or disapprove of these approaches to reducing energy use?”

90%Regulate the car industry to make vehicles more fuel efficient

Strongly Approve Total Approve

74%

88%

88%

83%

Require homes and other buildings to be more energy efficient

Build communities where people can walk places so that people can use their cars less

62%

49%

Provide improved public transportation including rail and buses 62%

Most Americans support less auto-dependent development as climate strategy

Growing Cooler: What it meansGrowing Cooler: What it means

Meeting the growing demand forMeeting the growing demand forconveniently located homes inconveniently located homes inwalkable neighborhoods couldwalkable neighborhoods couldsignificantly reduce the growthsignificantly reduce the growthin the number of milesin the number of milesAmericans drive, shrinking theAmericans drive, shrinking thenationnation’’s carbon footprint whiles carbon footprint whilegiving people more housinggiving people more housingchoiceschoices