Group11_Comforts of Home

7/27/2019 Group11_Comforts of Home

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COMFORTS OF HOMEGroup 11: PAUL JINTO JOSE | PANII NGAONII | AJINKYA LOKARE | D

VAIBHAV SHARMA


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Agenda

Introduction

CW #1

CW #2

CW #3

CW #4

Businessparallels


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Years International Soccer % of games won by home team % won by home team 2002-2009 MLS (U.S.) 69.1%1993-2009 Serie A (Italy) 67.0%2001-2009 Central America 65.2%1993-2009 La Liga (Spain) 65.0%2003-2009 South America 63.6%1993-2009 English Premier (U.K.) 63.1%2000-2009 Europe 61.9%2005-2009 Asia/Africa 60.0%Years Basketball % of games won by home team % won by home team 1947-2009 NCAA (collegiate) 69.1%1946-2009 NBA 62.7%2003-2009 WNBA 61.7%

FACTS: 19 Sports leagues across 40 countries

Home team advantage: is no myth

It exists

Remarkable consistency Across all sports, all level

Majority of time Team hosting a game wins


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Years Cricket % of games won by home team % won by home team la

1877-2009

International cricket

60.1%

Years Rugby % of games won by home team % won by home team la1871-2009 International Rugby 58.0%Years Hockey % of games won by home team % won by home team la1917-2009 NHL 59.0%Years Football % of games won by home team % won by home team la

1869-2009 NCAA (collegiate) 64.1%1966-2009 NFL 57.6%1987-2008 Arena football 56.0%Years Baseball % of games won by home team % won by home team la1903-2009 MLB 54.1%1998-2009 Nippon League (Japan) 53.3%

The Facts


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MLS (U.S.)Serie A(Italy)

CentralAmerica

La Liga(Spain)

SouthAmerica

EnglishPremier(U.K.)

E

2002-2009 1993-2009 2001-2009 1993-2009 2003-2009 1993-2009 20

% of games won by home team 69.1% 67.0% 65.2% 65.0% 63.6% 63.1% 6

% won by home team last 10 years 69.1% 65.7% 65.2% 64.3% 63.6% 63.0% 6

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

International Soccer

NCAA (collegiate) NBA

1947-2009 1946-2009 2

% of games won by home team 69.1% 62.7%

% won by home team last 10 years 68.8% 60.5%

56.0%58.0%60.0%

62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%70.0%

Basketball


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The Facts

Home field advantage for Soccer worldwide is: 62.4%

HFA: Is eerily constant through time though sports have changed radically thro

Collectively home teams have won more games than road teams across

- NBA, NHL and international soccer leagues in every season

Home teams success rate is almost same in the last decade as it was 50 or even

HFA is same no matter where the games are played

These statistics pertain only to the regular season in each sport

The HFA SET UP:Baseball: Home team bats last how many runs

to win Strategy

Team WINS at Home vs On Road:

NBA: 98.6% better at Home

NFL, MLB: 75% better at Home

Reward

HFA for the best teams during playoffs


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The Facts

Teams in Identical situation: Strategize differently based on where the game is being

played

Play for the TIE at home and the WIN on the road

Considerable economic incentive for home team to WIN as often as possibleHome team wins: Ticket buying fans Happy

Merchandising revenue, ticket sales increases

Sponsorships business and Corporations

Local television networks bid high for rights fees

Leagues and Executives fixing games ? -- NOSubtle measures to endow the home team with edges (legal)

- Irrational if otherwise


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Conventional Wisdoms

#1Teams win at home because of crowd support

#2

Teams win at home because the rigors of travel doom the visitors

#3

Teams win at home because they benefit form a kinder, gentle schedule

#4Teams win at home because they built to take advantage of unique homecharacteristics


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Conventional Wisdom #1

Teams win at home because of crowd support

We play better when cheered and applauded

Oppositely, we perform bad when crowd booed atus with angry words

Getting pelted with water bottles, batteries coins,

laser etc

Our thinking: Crowd supportcontributes a lot

Reality: Crowd influence on theplayers is pretty small

Justify by taking examples of som

Basketball (NBA)

Ice Hockey (NHL) Football (NFL)

Baseball (MLB)


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Basketball (NBA):

Inorder to measure the impact of crowd on theplayer, we have to isolate the other factor such as

defender, teammates, opponent players.

Possible through free throws

There is relation only between the player and

crowd, standardized, same distance and height

wherever it is played

Data of last two decade:

75.9 % success for both home and away team

So the effect of crowd significantly affecting the

performance of NBA players is hard to find

Ice Hockey(NHL): Shootout is equivalent to free throws

Similar to penalty in soccer

Played after the games remained tie

whistle

2005-09 data, 624 games: 49.4% ho

The significant home ice advantage

evaporate

Both shooter and goalies have low s

Similar disappearance of home fieldtournament soccer penalty kicks

23,000 games


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Football (NFL):

We look at kickers or punters It turns out that the yards per punt and field goals

are identical for both home and away team

NFL home teams rush betterat home, but away

team pass better

Crowd noise doesnt seems to affect the

quarterbacks

Baseball(NBA): Examining the pitcher by his velocity

and placement

Data more than 2 million pitches

Do pitchers actually pitches different

versus away?

Found that it is accurate at both with

zone

Throw with the same velocity too - 8

average

Comparing first inning and second in

doesnt make any difference

Home: 44.3% Away: 44.5%

Whether the crowd

encourage or curse the player

he is going to play equally

better


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Conventional

Wisdom #2

Teams win at home because the rigors

of travel DOOM the visitors

Game in Houston Boards a Plane Lands

Complete Exhaustion Take a Bus

ReachHotel

PrivateAirstrip

IntheNight

P

ostMatch


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MentalEr

rors

Sluggish

Defense

Lateto

Rotate

Halfheart

edefforts

General Behaviour of

Players on Road


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SPORTS% of GAMES WON

BY HOME TEAMYEARS

% Won BY HOMETEAM LAST 10

YEARS

NBA 62.7% 1946-2009 60.5%

NHL 59.0% 1917-2009 55.7%

NFL 57.6% 1966-2009 57.3%

MLB 54.1% 1903-2009 53.9%

NCAA 69.1% 1947-2009 68.8%

STATISTICS PLAY

THE SAME TUNE


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REALITY STRIKES

DIFFERENTLY

Rigors of the road exist, but they dont

underpin the home court advantageNBA

Teams from same or nearby city

playing each other. Ex: Los

Angeles Lakers vs Los Angeles

Clippers

They share the same arena

Natural Time zone

Both team get to enjoy

sufficient sleep time

NHL

Teams not only travel long

distance but also cross borders.

Ex US teams that play in Canada

& vice versa

Need to negotiate customsand other procedures

No abnormal home ice

advantage

Its the sim

interleague p

Chicago cubs

The home

constant o Same from

was from 2

HOME TEAM WINS

without much difference


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Conventional

Wisdom #3Teams win at home because they ben

from a kinder, gentler schedule

Back-to-back Games

Win percentage

36%You show up because they

show up. But deep in your bellyou aint gonna win

- Cha

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Advantage of 1 or 2 games due

Not only fewer consecutive game

games within the same time span

Home Team

Physical demands of running the

court up and down

Majority of the b-2-b

games are played by road

teams

HIGH

Energy or full strength to compete on

consecutive days

LOW

League

Scheduling


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NBA

All teams play more consecutive

games on the road

Relatively lesser for most valuable

franchises in the biggest markets

They play 3 games in 4 nightsroughly

MEDIUM BIAS

NHL

Team in NHL are brutalize

back-to-back games

Typical season, road team p

more consecutive games tha

home teams

MEDIUM BIAS

MLB

Scheduling is less of an issue

162 games is setup such that

teams play in three-, four-, andfive-game series

Player exerting more efforts get to

rest more

WEAK BIAS

NFL

Scheduling is less of an issue

162 games is setup such

teams play in three-, four-,five-game series

Player exerting more efforts g

rest more

NO BIAS


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Scheduling has huge role in the

home team advantage

It is mainly the scheduling of

weak opponents

Individual schools are free to

negotiate their own preseason

schedules

Teams from 6 big football

conferences the Big Ten, Pac-

10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Big

East- win almost 90%

Even a defeat will make smallteam to come on TV and in turn

help in drawing potential

recruiters

Incen

Incre

Contr

Incenschoo

1.

2.

3.

STRONG BIAS ( 50%)


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Spurs beat the blazers handily in their home game

playing impeccably whereas the blazers competewith no urgency or passion

Parker the star despite Duncan missing due to injury

Blazers win the return leg at home despite Spurs

having Duncan in their lineup

All this despite the standardised playing surface,

climate controlled conditions Blamed more on the defeatist approach adopted by

the away team

Conventional

Wisdom #4Teams win more at home because they are

take home characteristics advantage

Personnel dmore on

Players fit in

Cost

Gelling with

Rather than

the specific


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NFL

Climate and playing condition vary immensely

Weather is seemed to give no additional advantage

No difference found in performance of a warm weather team in cold conwhen playing at home

No difference found in the performance of a cold weather team at home

condition

The domed teams are supposed to play in controlled climate conditions

insensitive to weather

Variation may be attributed to certain other factors rather than weather


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Baseball

Boston red sox have an advantage of playing at fern way park

Attributed to acquaintance with caroms, angles ,effect of the wind, shalldepth

Misconception related to home field advantage

familiarity with unique optics of the home parks leads to home field adva

Tailoring the rosters to the idiosyncrasies of the ballpark

Teams from hitter parks outhit their visitors by more than teams from pit


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Deception and dark arts lead to home field advant

Boston celtics notorious for jacking up the heat in the visitors locker roo

University of iowa painted the oppositions locker rooms pink thinking tha

make them enervated

Difficult to pull off considering the standardized league rules, technology

deterring punishment


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Drawing parallels

China govt. policies favors home/local companies

Indian govt. gives subsidies to local firms to make it com

Apple vs Samsung

Pre liberalization - Closed market in India. Only Indian

companies could enter sectors such as defense/railway


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Thank you

Documents

Group11_Comforts of Home