Group Project-Toronto Pearson Master plan

C A R L O S A . M A RT I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N AV RA J PA BL A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

TORONTO

PEARSON

MASTER PLAN

C H A P T E R 3- A

V I AT I O

N AC T I V

I TY A

N D

F O R E C A S T


TABLE OF CONTENT 3.1 - Aviation Activity Overview• Air Carrier• Origin/Destination and

Connecting Passengers,• Aviation activity’s 3.2 – Historical Growth3.3 – Aviation Forecasts • Forecasting process • Aviation Operation

3.4 – Forecast for Facility Planning

• Development of schedules of activity

• Industry planning standards• Seasonal Variations and Peaks• Passenger Planning Levels• Aircraft Movement Planning

Levels:3.5 - Forecast Implication • Forecast Implications• Utilization of Facilities


3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY OVERVIEWToronto Pearson International Airport Market Profile:

• Network, Low cost, and Charters Air Carrier• origin/destination and connecting passengers,• The Air cargo, Business, and General aviation profile.


3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – NETWORK CARRIERNetwork carriers are scheduled airlines that focus on providing

a wide range of pre-flight and on-board services including different service classes

and connecting flights.

Air Canada, British Airways and American Airlines are considered to be Network

Carrier airlines due to their every day service to majority of destinations.

Most network carriers operate a hub and spoke network allowing Toronto Pearson to

develop more point to point connections for their passengers.


3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – LOW COST CARRIER Low cost carriers is a newer generation of airline in which

competes with the network carriers by avoiding the overhead costs associated with

services like connections, and serving regional and international destinations.

Example of Low Cost Carrier West Jet, South West, Ryan Air, and EasyJet

Tend to operate with a limited number of aircraft, fewer destination but compete on

airfare/cost and frequency services

Avoid overhead cost such as operating a variety of aircraft, providing multiclass

configuration/lounges, meals,


3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – CHARTER CARRIER A charter carrier is contracted by tour operators to fly their

passengers to holiday destinations.

Air Transat and Skyservice are two of Toronto Pearson longest serving Charter Carrier

in operation

They operate at the peak seasons and tend to reduce operation during quieter

periods


AVIATION ACTIVITY – PASSENGERS AT PEARSON Toronto Pearson has a strong origin and destination travel

traffic base in which passengers either begin or end their journey at this airport.

The airport benefits from a large diversity of routes.

Toronto Pearson is an attractive gateway for Canadian, and U.S connecting

passengers. The airport is the fifth largest entry airport into the United States after

New York, JFK, Chicago, Miami and Los Angeles International.

Toronto Pearson is a significant connecting point (Journeys that passes beyond

approached airport) for passengers. Approximately 20% of passengers that pass

through Pearson are connecting.


AVIATION ACTIVITY – PEARSON'S CARGOPearson is a major trans-shipment center for cargo travelling

between Canadian and international points, as the dominant Canadian airport for air

cargo shipments is expected to grow both regional and national.

Freighters are now filling this role since the use of smaller aircraft negatively

impacted carrying capacity on many routes and continue to do in the future. Freighter

demand suffered far less than passenger hold demand in comparison of the use of

regional jets

Use of RJ’s in right-sizing markets instead of larger aircraft is negatively impacting

belly cargo capacity on same North American routes.


3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – BUSINESS AT PEARSON Business Aviation exists at Pearson because a number of

corporate aircraft are housed in the infield and north business aviation areas.

These types of operation are consider to aid Busniess, Government, Military. Not for

Public or Cargo operation

Cooperate aircraft are piloted by individuals who have at a minimum, a valid

commercial pilot’s license with an instrument rating.

Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam

3.2 Historical Growth

Aviation Services is generally dependent on the general heath of the economy. As shown in figure 3-3, growth rate in passenger volumes change with:

1-Growth rate in economy

2-Terrorist attacks were a shock with 20% reduction in traffic of 2001. (September 11, 2001)

3-Diseases such as SARS in 2003.

4-Iraq and Afghan Wars with 15% reduction.

5-Changing the regulation of air carrier industry.

6-In 2005 and 2006, oil prices increased and it brought increase on ticket’s prices.

By 2006-07 Traffic levels were back to normal and demand continued to increase till reached 30.97 million passengers in 2006.


3.3 – Aviation ForecastForecasting Process The method of producing forecast are based on: 1) The economy (domestic & abroad) 2) Demographic factors In which collaborates in predicting forecast by monitoring activity affecting supply and demand which includes: Gross Domestic Products, Adult and Immigrant Population, Air fares

Significant, Strategic Forecasting Factors

Service supplied by Air Carriers is a significant factor for the economy. Ultimately depends on the competition of:

• Other Air Carrier & other motive of transportation, • Fuel cost & Efficiency• Labor cost• Government Regulations & Policy Issues• Airport & Air Navigation cost • Congestion & environmental initiatives


3.3 – Aviation Forecast Strategic Factors

Factor in which help cause change from previous historical pattern of Supply and Demand for better aviation service such as:

Expanding use of Electronic Communication and Teleconferencing

Presence of LCC, Charter Air Carrier vs. other low-fare transportation

the Hassle factors – Security, Uncertainty, and Inconsistency


3.3 Passenger ForecastingCollaborated data put together from various resources such as: External agencies (Conference board of Canada,

Informetrica) Pearson historical traffic data Determine a prediction for the demand of passenger travel. The data that is used to determine passenger demand can be broken down into two different models:

Econometric Passenger Origin/Destination (PODM):

projects the number of Origin/Destination passengers within each area of the Country for Domestic, Trans border, International transportation

Passenger Traffic Allocation (PTAM):

Incorporates connecting passengers to yield a forecast producing the Enplaned/Deplaned passenger volume for the major airports in the country, as well provide a forecast for Aircraft Movement


3.3 Business & Cargo Business/General Aviation Forecast Business aviation activity is expect to maintain its presence with Toronto Pearson with Corporate operation, not in terms with Government or Private Operators which are offsetting declines in the forecast

Cargo Travel Toronto Pearson being ranked 38th for Air Cargo Volume being measured 517,00 metric tons of Cargo shipments has only been a secondary business for Toronto Pearson. As for many other corporation such as Fed-ex, UPS, DHL collaborates with Toronto Pearson and take advantage of all its Cargo Shipment


3.3 Aircraft Movement Forecast A collaboration of data and forecast such as:

Passenger Demand Non-passenger operation (Business, Cargo, General Aviation), Airline statistic (Load factor, Aircraft size)

To yield an Aircraft movement Forecast for facility uses or to be converted for future schedule time planning needs. All these Factor/Forecast in the end influences the Airline fleet (Number of Aircraft + Size of Plane), the passengers loads, and route structure

These Forecasts that Pearson Airport processes are reviewed annually by Transport Canada and is tracked by the Greater Toronto Airport Authorities (GTAA) on a monthly basis to make final adjustment in the forecast by taking account for:

• Non-revenue Passengers (Airline employees, cheaply discounted fare)

• Providing micro-detail requirements for facility planning process


3.4 FORECAST FOR FACILITY PLANNING

Provides an overview of the development of forecasted facilities by:

Development of schedules of activity

Analysis data, by Transport Canada, of five domestic, seven trans border and seven International zones helps to account for the appropriate timing of flights at Toronto; also it helps to simulations, and to determine future facility traffic levels, so it will produce the future facility requirements.

Industry Planning Standards A daily and hourly passenger and movement volume is the main requirement for facility planning. There are five main peak standards:• The absolute peak• The average of busiest months • The average of the seven busiest days of the three busiest months (Used by ICAO)• he 90th percentile of daily traffic (Used by Transport Canada)• The 95th percentile of day


3.4 FORECAST FOR FACILITY PLANNING

During calculating and planning days, it is very important to understand which standards are being met, which are realistic, and which should be viewed as a future target for the Airport.

Seasonal Variations and Peaks

In order to forecasting facilities, the seasonal and daily variations in traffic levels are required. For instance, the busiest months at Toronto Pearson are the summer months of July and August. Analyzing these traffic data helps to design facilities in order to handle busy traffic periods.


3.4 Forecasting for Facility planning

Passenger Planning Levels

All standards mentioned above will help Airport to set target levels of activity across a season by sector and direction.

Aircraft Movement Planning Levels:

These standards also make aircraft movements forecasting.


Discuss the forecast implications for Toronto Pearson International Airport and their utilization of facilities.

3.5 Forecast Implication

Forecast Implications

The airport is expecting to have more than 50 million passengers by the year 2020 as well as 637,000 aircraft movements (Aviation activity and Forecast,2006). Given the expected growth of passengers and aircraft movements, an evaluation will need to be done in order to determine if Pearson is capable of dealing with this in the future. Other airports within the region must also be able to deal with any spill over from Pearson or else there will be major delays for passengers. It will also be difficult to maintain effective operations in the GTA.

Utilization of Facilities

This chapter outlines the importance of an efficient airport operation. An assessment is done in order to determine Toronto Pearson’s operating efficiency. The time it takes for a passenger to check in and Pre-Board screenings for example are included in this assessment. The efficient utilization of facilities at Pearson is paramount in its future success.

Documents

Group Project-Toronto Pearson Master plan