Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

BRIEFING #29

18 AUGUST 2020

GROUP CRISIS MANAGEMENTBRIEFING

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing 2

SAFETY & ETHICS MOMENT

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

Janine MacNeilRegional CMT Coordinator, Europe

Source: NHS gym free workouts

Additional resources:

• Bupa• LinkedIn• 5 Min Stretch @ Your Desk: Shoulder & Neck

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

• We’re half a year on from WHO sounding its highest alarm by declaring the COVID-19 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

• IMF estimates the pandemic costs the global economy $375 billion US dollars a month and predicts a cumulative loss to the global economy over two years of over $12 trillion US dollars.

• If we don't get rid of the virus everywhere, we can't rebuild economies anywhere. The sooner we stop the pandemic, the sooner we can ensure internationally inter-linked sectors like travel, trade and tourism can truly recover.

• As public and social distancing measures are lifted, it is critical that we remain vigilant.

• This pandemic is having a major impact on the future of young adults – not just from the virus itself, but because of its impacts on the economy, employment, education, and the overall health system.

• Many young people are essential workers, or volunteering to support their communities, delivering food and medicine to the vulnerable.

• The annual World Health Statistics Report 2020 provides up-to-date data on the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and examines health trends across Member States, regions and the entire world, plus the impact of COVID-19 on these goals.

• WHO released a report with UNICEF on the obstacles to re-opening schools because of a lack of basic handwashing facilities – these are the highlights:

• More than two out of five schools around the world lack basic handwashing facilities, affecting an estimated 818 million children. Of the 818 million children who lacked a basic handwashing service at their school, 355 million went to schools which had facilities with water but no soap, and 462 million to schools which had no facilities or water available for handwashing;

• In the 60 countries at highest risk of health and humanitarian crises due to COVID-19, 3 in 4 children lacked basic handwashing service at their school at the start of the outbreak; half of all children lacked basic water service, and more than half lacked basic sanitation service;

• Most of these schools do not even have clean water or working toilets.

• 1 in 3 schools worldwide had either limited drinking water service or no drinking water service at all;

• 698 million children lacked basic sanitation service at their school.

• As of today 9 vaccine candidates are already in the COVAX portfolio and going through Phase 2 or 3 trials; and this portfolio – already the broadest in the world – is expanding. Countries that represent nearly 70% of the global population have signed up or expressed an interest to be part of the new initiative. The world needs multiple vaccine candidates of different types to maximize the chances of finding a winning solution.

• On therapeutics, the first proven therapy for severe COVID-19, Dexamethasone, was announced in June.

• On diagnostics, more than 50 tests are currently in evaluation, and new evidence has been generated around rapid antigen detection tests.

BRIEFINGS BY WHO 12th to 16th of August 2020

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Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

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GLOBAL STATUS REPORT

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Statistics

Confirmed Cases

Deaths 777,440

Critical Condition 62,074

Mild Condition 6,418,074

Recovered & Discharged 14,791,869

Top 20 (out of 213 countries & territories affected)

Country Confirmed Deaths Recovered Critical

USA 5,612,027 173,716 2,973,587 17,190

Brazil 3,363,235 108,654 2,478,494 8,318

India 2,701,604 51,925 1,976,248 8,944

Russia 927,745 15,740 736,101 2,300

South Africa 589,886 11,982 477,671 539

Peru 541,493 26,481 370,717 1,524

Mexico 525,733 57,023 359,347 3,536

Colombia 476,660 15,372 301,525 1,493

Chile 387,502 10,513 360,385 1,177

Spain 382,142 28,646 - 617

Iran 345,450 19,804 299,157 3,773

United Kingdom 319,197 41,369 - 73

Saudi Arabia 299,914 3,436 268,385 1,758

Argentina 299,126 5,814 217,850 1,749

Pakistan 289,215 6,175 269,087 771

Bangladesh 279,144 3,694 160,591 -

Italy 254,235 35,400 203,968 58

Turkey 250,542 5,996 231,971 686

Germany 226,686 9,296 202,900 224

France 219,029 30,429 84,065 384

+1,794,772 cases since 11 August

=3.5% of all confirmed cases

18 August 2020

83% 85% 81% 89%

22,049,457

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

United States & Canada• The U.S. budget deficit grew to a record $2.8 trillion for the fiscal year to date as the federal government continued to pump money into the economy. • Covid-19 is now the No. 3 cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease and cancer, CNN reports.• In one district in Georgia, nearly 1,200 students and staff members have already been ordered to quarantine• Texas still has too many virus cases to allow reopening, the governor said, citing progress in the state but suggesting there was a long way to go.• Times reporters examined why the virus is killing young adults age 25 to 44 in Florida. Work, not partying, was mostly to blame.• Tourists and office workers have abandoned Manhattan. Now retail chains are following suit.• A small piece of cloth continues to divide Americans. Mask wearing is still fiercely debated — largely along political lines — and has led to a well-documented spate

of arguments, assaults and arrests• The virus mortality rate at San Quentin State Prison in California, where more than two-thirds of the population has fallen ill, shows the disastrous cost of herd

immunity, The Los Angeles Times reports.• An Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs online poll from May indicated half of Americans would hesitate to take or refuse a vaccine, and a study by

King's College London last week found similar results in the UK. A survey by Northeastern, Harvard, Rutgers and Northwestern Universities found that 52% of African American respondents are likely to seek a vaccine, compared with 67% of whites.

• The five U.S. metropolitan areas with the highest rate of new cases relative to their population are now all in South Texas

IN THE NEWS…- ‘No evidence’ of coronavirus latching onto food packaging, WHO says

- Cases are spiking in South American countries that previously had the virus under control, including Colombia and Argentina.

- If you recover from the virus, you may be protected for at least three months, the C.D.C. says.

- Covid-19 rumors, stigma and conspiracy theories have been circulating in 25 different languages across at least 87 countries, and this spread of misinformation has led to deaths and injuries, according to a new study. Most were from India, the US, China, Spain, Indonesia and Brazil.

- Children may be able to spread Covid-19 just as easily as they spread another type of coronavirus the common cold, Harvard Medical School professor said.

- Floating respiratory droplets called aerosols can contain live coronavirus particles and infect cells — a critical discovery in the case for airborne transmission.

- Many Covid-19 patients may be dying from an immune response known as a cytokine storm, not from the virus. Here’s how doctors are trying to save them.

- Researchers around the world are developing more than 165 vaccines against the coronavirus, and 31 vaccines are in human trials.

- The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000

- Researchers analyzed thousands of patients at a Southern California health system and found that extreme obesity was a risk factor for dying, particularly among men and patients 60 or younger.

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Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

Australia & New Zealand• Australia's states and territories will remain closed off from one another in the coming days as authorities try to stop the latest surge in Covid-19 cases.

Australia had its deadliest day of the pandemic yesterday, reporting 25 deaths in 24 hours, all in Victoria.• New Zealand has reinstated coronavirus restrictions after the first locally-transmitted case in 102 days. Parts of New Zealand were back under lockdown on

Wednesday, a day after officials confirmed the country’s first locally transmitted cases of the coronavirus in months. New Zealand officials are investigating the possibility that its first COVID-19 cases in more than three months were imported by freight, as the country’s biggest city plunged back into lockdown.

• There is a new directive from NSW schools as of yesterday - Students and staff with flu-like symptoms will need to provide a copy of a negative COVID-19 test result before being permitted to return to school.

• New Zealand said that it would postpone its national election by four weeks because of a cluster of new virus cases in Auckland, its largest city.

UK & Europe• Concern about a second wave is growing in the European Union, after the bloc's health agency called on member states seeing an uptick in cases to reinforce

control measures, warning of a "true resurgence" or "risk of further escalation of Covid-19" in several countries. • Russia announced that it had approved a vaccine for the coronavirus, the first country in the world to do so. But the claim has been met with international

skepticism because the vaccine has not been thoroughly tested. The Russian vaccine, known as Sputnik-V, has not yet entered Phase 3, and scientific data from its earlier trails has not been published.

• Dr. Fauci criticized Russia’s rushed clearance of a coronavirus vaccine, saying he doubted that the country actually proved that it was safe and effective.• The UK economy suffered its biggest slump on record between April and June as coronavirus lockdown measures pushed the country officially into recession-

defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline - since 2009. The economy shrank 20.4% compared with the first three months of the year.• France declared Paris and the Marseille region to be high-risk zones, giving local authorities powers to impose new restrictions to contain the virus.• France to be added to UK quarantine countries. UK will be "ruthless" over quarantine, Johnson says when asked about France

Latin America• Brazil has had more than 3 million confirmed cases - the second highest in the world after the US. Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru are also battling major

outbreaks, and are in the top 10 countries with the most confirmed cases. Peru has had more than 21,000 confirmed deaths. And Chile has had more than 10,000 people dead, although the number of daily cases has been coming down. Colombia continues to see cases and deaths rise, with more than 12,000 confirmed deaths. Ecuador recorded one of the earliest and worst outbreaks in the region, although daily deaths here have now dropped.

• Cases are spiking in South American countries that previously had the virus under control, including Colombia and Argentina.• The head of the Pan American Health Organization, Dr Carissa Etienne has warned that coronavirus is spreading "exponentially" in many areas of the region.• Mexico has tested just over seven people for every 1,000, and Brazil had tested nearly 12 in every 1,000 as of 21 July. Of the tests, very high proportions are

turning out to be positive, suggesting that they are not testing widely enough to find all cases.• The U.S. agreement with Canada and Mexico to limit nonessential travel has been extended a fifth time, through Sept. 21.

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IN THE NEWS…

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

IN THE NEWS…

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Asia• Vietnam, which did not record its first Covid-19 death until July 31, reported four on Tuesday, its highest daily number since the start of the pandemic.• China has reported several instances of the coronavirus being detected on the packaging of imported frozen seafood in recent weeks. The World Health

Organization website states there is currently no confirmed case of COVID-19 transmitted through food or food packaging. However, it also notes that studies have shown that the virus can survive for up to 72 hours on plastic.

• More than half of Mumbai's slum residents might have had Covid-19. Herd immunity could still be a long way off• South Korea reported new cases, mostly in Seoul — the nation’s largest daily tally in three weeks. • South Korea warns of another outbreak tied to a religious group• Special Report: Last doctor standing - Pandemic pushes Indian hospital to brink• Japan economy shrank by 7.8 percent in the second quarter of the year, its worst performance on record, as the country reeled from the effects of the pandemic.

Middle East• Dubai ruler visits COVID-19 command and control center• Saudi Arabia suspended all schools, universities and educational institutions in the Kingdom since March 9 as part of efforts to contain the spread of the

coronavirus outbreak and instituted distance learning via online tools as an alternative. Distance learning will continue for first 7 weeks of new academic year• Israeli hospital trials super-quick saliva test for COVID-19Africa• Ten countries account for about 80% of the total tests conducted - South Africa, Morocco, Ghana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, Mauritius, Kenya, Nigeria and Rwanda.• The progression of Covid-19 in Africa may be following a different path to other parts of the world, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO

says African nations may be seeing a more gradual rise in cases, rather than rapid, large surges as happened elsewhere. The rate of increase in reported cases has slowed mainly driven by a decline in new cases in South Africa, which accounts for more than half of all cases reported in Africa. It's also warned that the coronavirus is moving from high-density urban areas to rural areas. In confirmed cases, Africa accounts for only a small proportion of the global total - just 5%.

• Research from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) indicates the number of people who have died from the virus could be much higher than officially reported. Gauteng province, which includes Johannesburg, accounts for more than a third of the total cases. But Western Cape province (where Cape Town is located) has reported most deaths.

• Egypt has seen case numbers rising rapidly since mid-May, but there are indications this may have reached a peak with new infections dropped off in early July.• There is also concern about what is happening in Nigeria, which is third in terms of total cases recorded so far on the continent.• Ethiopia and Zambia have been among the top five countries with the highest percentage increases over the last month, according to the WHO.

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

GLOBAL ECONOMICS INTELLIGENCE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, JULY 2020

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Link to the article

Deep second-quarter contractions were measured in the United States and the eurozone. Economic indicators improved in June and July, but disparities in controlling the novel coronavirus suggest diverging recovery paths.

• The US economy experienced a record-breaking GDP contraction of –9.5% (year over year) in the second quarter of 2020 (–32.9% annualized).

• Many analysts expect positive growth in the third quarter, stemming from partial reopening, but a continued surge of COVID-19 cases could halt further expansion.

• In terms of pandemic control and recovery, the eurozone occupies a position between China and the United States, but its economy sustained a deep contraction in the second quarter as well.

• Preliminary flash estimates published by the European Union show a contraction of –15.0% (y-o-y) in the eurozone as a whole, with contractions in its largest economies of –22.1% in Spain, –19.0% in France, –17.3% in Italy, and –11.7% in Germany.

These are the worst quarterly results ever recorded in the eurozone and reveal how steep a climb lies ahead. Industrial production has, however, been ramping up lately as eurozone economies reopen.

• In May, official unemployment rates increased in the eurozone (7.4%), Brazil (12.9%), and Russia (6.1%); the rate declined in the United States but remains historically high (11.1% in June and 13.3% in May).

Some positive economic signs did emerge in June and July in that contractions in industry slowed, business-and consumer-confidence indexes did not worsen, and equity markets continued to recover. The improvements are a product of government crisis-support measures, positive growth in China, and the emergence of economies from restrictions. The resulting increases in demand have helped revive the price of oil and other industrial commodities.

Central banks in surveyed economies made no changes in their policy rates in July.

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

REDRAWING THE MAP OF GLOBAL TRADE

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Link to the articleThe COVID-19 pandemic has delivered perhaps the greatest shocks to international trade since the Great Depression. Global trade in 2020 is projected to decline by 20% according to BCG’s baseline scenario for economic recovery, and it is not projected to regain its 2019 absolute level of $18 trillion until 2023. Only the most optimistic economic scenarios see trade returning to its previous level in 2021.• The global trade landscape will still look dramatically different as companies shift their focus

from fighting the pandemic to winning the post-COVID-19 future.

• On these 2 maps: One shows the actual change in trade volumes from 2015 through 2019; the other projects changes from 2019 through 2023 under our baseline economic scenario.

• Among the sharpest shifts:

• Two-way trade between the US and China in 2023 will have shrunk by around 15%, or about $128 billion, from 2019 levels.

• Trade between the US and the EU will continue to grow, but at a sharply lower rate from the $135 billion surge from 2015 through 2019.

• EU trade with China will have declined by about $30 billion from 2019 through 2023, after growing by $124 billion in the previous four-year period. EU trade with India and South America will flatten.

• Southeast Asia will continue to be one of the strongest gainers, increasing two-way trade by around $22 billion with the EU, $26 billion with the US, and $41 billion with China by the end of 2023, but still at a slower pace than the earlier four-year period.

• Trade volumes will be heavily influenced by whether economic recovery is shaped like a V, U, or L. BCG’s projection that global trade will return to the 2019 level of $18 trillion in 2023. If recovery is rapid, resembling a V, trade could return to its 2018 level sooner than 2023. Under a slow, L-shaped recovery, international trade growth will remain relatively flat for several years.

• Companies should be thinking proactively about redesigning their supply chains to make them more resilient to future shocks.

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

MASKS…THERE ARE MANY…!

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• According to mask manufacturer 3M, “it is reasonable to consider” China’s KN95s “equivalent” to US N95s. Mask standards for Europe (FFP2), Australia (P2), Korea (KMOEL), and Japan (DS) are also highly similar.

• Lots of users care most about what percentage of particles the masks capture. On this metric, N95 and KN95 respirator masks are the same. Both masks are rated to capture 95% of tiny particles (0.3 micron particles, to be exact).

• N95s and KN95s are both rated to capture 95% of particles. Among the minor differences, only KN95 masks are required to pass fit tests, while N95 masks have slightly stronger breathability.

• Between N95 and KF94 Masks look similar, and they filter a nearly identical percentage of particles—95% versus 94%. This chart from 3M explains the differences between the N95 and “first class” Korean masks. The Korean standards are more similar to the EU standards than the US standards. There are small differences in other factors, such as breathing resistance and fit-testing.

• The difference between N95 and P2 masks is so small that most users will not notice anything amiss. The P2 rating is the standard in Australia and New Zealand similar to the US N95 mask rating. They filter out nearly the same amount of particles: 95% versus 94%. Masks certified as “P2,” manufacturers must perform fit tests on real humans. N95 manufacturers do not need to do human fit tests.

Doctors say wearing eye protection (in addition to face masks) could certainly help some people, but it's not necessary for everyone. But if you're not in a high-risk situation — and you're very strict about wearing face masks and staying 6 feet away from others -- wearing goggles isn't necessary.

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

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ADDITIONAL READING…

1. Building a digital New York Times: CEO Mark Thompson

2. How do companies create value from digital ecosystems?

3. How six companies are using technology and data to transform themselves

4. Octopus Energy’s Cutting-Edge Customer Service: An Interview with Jon Paull

5. A Lot Will Change—So Must Leadership

6. Contact Tracing Accelerates IoT Opportunities and Risks

7. Unemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis

8. The COVID-19 Gender Gap

9. Why Sustainable Food Systems are Needed in a post-COVID World

10. England’s contact-tracing system (finally) gets parochial

The following additional reading may be of interest:

Coronavirus COVID-19Group CMT Briefing

IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO KNOW MORE ABOUT HOW WE ARE MANAGING THE COVID-19 CRISIS

VISIT HKA.COM

Gino Wideen ran a murder mystery event on Thursday which was fantastic. Everyone had to get into character which really made it fun. Photographed here are 1 of the 3 teams who participated

Ieuan Davies (Associate Consultant) and Justin Axten(Consultant) running a session remotely to help us understand CRUX more.