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GRGAQS: Meteorological Modeling. Presentation to the SWCAA By ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysis, LLC August 8, 2006. Today’s Presentation. Further evaluation of MM5 performance Analyses conducted for August and November modeling episodes: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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GRGAQS:Meteorological Modeling
Presentation to the
SWCAA
By
ENVIRON International Corporation
Alpine Geophysis, LLC
August 8, 2006
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Today’s Presentation
• Further evaluation of MM5 performance
• Analyses conducted for August and November modeling episodes:– 4-km surface wind fields in Gorge area– Cloud cover and fog on 4-km grid
• Compare to satellite and Wishram camera
– Wind, temperature, RH at Wishram
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Wind Performance, August 2004
• Hi bscat 8/10-8/16, 8/19
• Poor performance at central sites 8/10-8/13– Wind opposite direction
• Good performance 8/14-8/22– Maybe too light on some days
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Wind Performance, November 2004
• Hi bscat 11/8-11/13• Overall better performance than for
August episode• Very good performance over 11/8-
11/13– Some stagnation leads to wind direction
errors– Some windy periods are too light
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Cloud Cover
• August 2004 notes at Wishram camera:8/10 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/11 No clouds, No layered haze8/12 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/13 No clouds, No layered haze8/14 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/15 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/16 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/17 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/18 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/19 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/20 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/21 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/22 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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Wishram Camera
August 13, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
August 14, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
August 19, noon Pristine
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August 2004 Cloud Cover
• Performance appears adequate– MM5 cannot replicate high thin/wispy
cirrus– MM5 usually underperforms for scattered
small-scale afternoon cumulus– These should not play significant role in
regional PM chemistry
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Cloud Cover
• November 2004 notes at Wishram camera:11/3 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/4 No clouds, Ground-based layered haze only11/5 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/6 Scattered clouds < half of sky, Ground-based layered haze only11/7 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/8 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/9 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/10 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/11 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/12 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/13 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/14 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (distant fog)11/15 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene11/16 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze11/17 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/18 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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Wishram Camera
November 6, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 8, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 10, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 15, noon Pristine
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November 2004 Cloud Cover
• Large-scale higher clouds appear well simulated
• Low-level cloud/fog events are not– Especially on the high bscat days
– This will impact aqueous PM chemistry
– This would impact bscat reconstruction
• If we use MM5-predicted humidity
• EPA method: use measured humidity
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: August 10-22
0
5
10
15
20
25
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
m/s
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: August 10-22
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
Deg
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: August 10-22
290
295
300
305
310
315
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
K
Predicted Observed
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: August 10-22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
%R
H
Predicted Observed
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August 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction well simulated– Terrain channeling may be leading to
higher observed speeds and direction bias
• Temperatures on 4-km grid are highly suspect– RH performance follows poor
temperature performance– Need to investigate further
• Could use in some initial PM modeling
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: November 3-18
0
3
6
9
12
15
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: November 3-18
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
Deg
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: November 3-18
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
288
290
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
K
Predicted Observed
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: November 3-18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
%R
H
Predicted Observed
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November 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction performance appears acceptable
• Temperature performance is poor– Need to investigate cause
• RH is too low – no fog – not associated with temperature problem
• This episode is currently not useable