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© Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 1
Australia’s Green Electricity Schemes
Costs and BenefitsPerth
13 February 2013
Dr Robert Barr
Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd
2012 National Professional Electrical Engineer of the Year - National Lecture Tour
Perfect Storm of Rising Electricity Costs
• Conventional Generation
• AEMO Market Charges
• Metering
• Network Charges– N-1 type regulatory requirements
– Somerville Report (2004)
– P.M. says “gold plating”
• Green Electricity Schemes– Carbon Tax
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Solar Photovoltaic
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Wind
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Hydro
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6 x 50MW Peaking Plant – Snowy Hydro
Valley Power, Latrobe Valley, Victoria Australia 300MW Open Cycle Natural Gas
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Eraring Power Station
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4x 660 MW Black Coal
Yallourn Power Station
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1,490 MW Brown Coal – 4 units
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Tallawarra Power Station
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435 MW Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Muja Power Station
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2 x 200 MW + 2 x 227 MW Coal
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Electricity Green Schemes
• National Schemes– Large Renewable Energy Target (LRET)
• includes large wind, solar & hydro
– Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES)• including solar water heaters, heat pumps, solar panel
systems, small-scale wind systems, small hydro
– Carbon Tax
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Electricity Green Schemes
• NSW Schemes– Energy Saving Scheme (ESS)
• incentives to save energy
– Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GHGR)• CO2 abatement scheme – targets with penalties
– Solar feed-in tariff (was gross – now net)
• Other States– Solar feed-in tariffs
– Others?
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Energy Environmental Objectives
• Resource Sustainability– How many years can we keep up our current use of resources
before they run out?
• Reduced Carbon Emissions– How many tonnes of CO2 emissions/year can be saved?
• National Energy Independence – Can we sustain our energy needs without undue dependence on
overseas supplies?
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Australian Fuel Sustainability
Fuel
Proven Reserves (approximate)
At current production rates
At Australian usage rates
Brown Coal 1,000 years 1,000 years
Black Coal 100 years 240 years
Natural Gas 72 years 112 years
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Carbon Intensity
FuelTonnes of CO2 /MWh
Brown Coal 1.4
Black Coal 0.9
Natural GasOpen Cycle Gas
Turbine0.65
Natural GasCombined Cycle Gas Turbine
0.4
Hydro 0
Wind 0
Solar PV 0
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Construction Cost
FuelTonnes of CO2 /MWh
$ Capital Construction Cost/MW
Brown Coal 1.4 High
Black Coal 0.9 High
Natural GasOpen Cycle Gas
Turbine0.65 Low
Natural GasCombined Cycle Gas Turbine
0.4 Medium
Hydro 0Extremely
high
Wind 0 High
Solar PV 0 Very high
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Dispatch
FuelTonnes of CO2 /MWh
$ Capital Construction Cost/MW
Dispatch Capable
Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes
Black Coal 0.9 High Yes
Natural GasOpen Cycle Gas
Turbine0.65 Low Yes
Natural GasCombined Cycle Gas Turbine
0.4 Medium Yes
Hydro 0Extremely
highYes
Wind 0 High No
Solar PV 0 Very high No
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Ability to Rapidly Change Output
FuelTonnes of CO2 /MWh
$ Capital Construction Cost/MW
Dispatch Capable
Ability to RapidlyChange Output
Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes No
Black Coal 0.9 High Yes No
Natural GasOpen Cycle Gas
Turbine0.65 Low Yes Yes
Natural GasCombined Cycle Gas Turbine
0.4 Medium Yes Moderate
Hydro 0Extremely
highYes Yes
Wind 0 High No Nil
Solar PV 0 Very high No Nil
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Wind• Every 100MW of wind generation requires
about 90 MW of conventional generation for backup
• All wind generation needs a “dancing partner”
• Wind is only financially viable with LRET
• Will most likely be the main method of reaching the 20% renewable target for 2020
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Solar Photovoltaic• Lends itself to distributed use at the
domestic level
• At 60 c/kWh and other green scheme subsidies it becomes attractive to customers
• Is causing network stress
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• Benefits– Reduce network losses
– Delay augmentations?
– Voltage support?
– Green kWhs?
Embedded Generation Issues
Negatives◦ Voltage rise◦ Cold load pick up◦ Dual power flow analysis◦ Some network
augmentations required
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Modeled Conventional Dispatch
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Modeled Small Wind
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Modeled Large Scale Wind
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13% Wind
SA Wind
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Modeled Large Scale WindConstant Load – Dancing Partner
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30% Wind
70% of 0.65 Tonnes CO2/MWH OCG= 0.45 Tonnes CO2/MWH
Compare with 0.4 Tonnes CO2/MWH for CCG
CO2 Emissions
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+ >
Wind OCG CCG
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AEMO Data
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Carbon Tax
Conclusions• Renewables are only viable with government
legislated green schemes
• Wind and solar PV generation require large scale conventional “backup” power generation –dancing partners
• Economics will drive much of the “back up” generation to be open cycle gas:– Capital cost
– Higher CO2 producing plant
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Conclusions
• The current policy settings are increasing the use of natural gas
– reducing Australia’s sustainability in terms of energy reserves
• Greenhouse gas savings are coming mainly from:
– the switch from coal to natural gas
– Less energy use due to high energy prices and price elasticity
• Wind and solar PV in their present form are making little or no direct contribution to CO2 savings
• New energy storage breakthroughs are required to make renewables viable
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Important Issues• Increased focus needed on:
– end use energy efficiency
– Using less electricity
– electricity network losses
• Research
– energy storage
• Change of emphasis from:
– “feel good” green schemes to policies that have some solid engineering logic
• Electricity Network costs
– getting away from feast and famine capital investments
– improved performance of regulators
– taking a longer term view
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Questions?
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