Green River Basin:Upper Green/Yampa/White and

DuchesneCRFS

March 30, 2010

Upper Green

March 29, 2010

NRCS Daily Forecast Model

NWS-SWS: 430 no qpf – qpf

NWS-ESP: 398 380 350 – 385

NRCS daily: 361 325 272

NRCS statistical: 450 350/295r

Coordinated: 415/48% 380/44%

Model Guidance & Forecast

March 1 March 15 March 29

ESP: Effect of Distributions and QPF5 days of QPF, then

climatologyClimatological precip

only

Wakeby 50%:479 kaf

Wakeby 50%:512 kaf

Empirical 50%:448 kaf

Empirical 50%:478 kaf

Weekly ESPon web

Exceedance Levels Exceedance Levels

In this case the 5 day QPF total is less than the climatological total for those 5 days, therefore the ESP volumes are lower.

NRCS Daily Forecast Model

NWS-SWS: 650 no qpf – qpf

NWS-ESP: 464 449 420 – 460

NRCS daily: 533 504 443

NRCS statistical: 665 560/430r

Coordinated: 515/43% 470/40%

Model Guidance & Forecast

March 1 March 15 March 29

Yampa/White

March 29, 2010

NRCS Daily Forecast Model

NWS-SWS: 695 no qpf – qpf

NWS-ESP: 685 555 – 554

NRCS daily: 651 593

NRCS statistical: 695 540/635r

Coordinated: 695/70%

Model Guidance & Forecast

March 1 March 29

NRCS Daily Forecast Model

NWS-SWS: 334 no qpf – qpf

NWS-ESP: 267 230 – 227

NRCS daily: 247 245

NRCS statistical: 245/260r 250/265r

Coordinated: 265/73%

Model Guidance & Forecast

March 1 March 29

Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum# Analysis Period: 3/25/2010 - 8/1/2010 (MST)# # Exc. Prob. 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6700 7600 8400 9100 9800 10400 11100 11900 13500 CFSD

50% - 9800 cfsd

90% - 6700 cfsd

10% - 13,500 cfsd

Flood

Bankfull

Duchesne