Greater Port Vila Urban Resilience Project (RRP VAN 52031-001)

DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR

GREATER PORT VILA URBAN RESILIENCE PROJECT1

A. Project context

1. Vanuatu 1. The Republic of Vanuatu is a Melanesian nation made up of roughly 80 islands. The archipelago, which is volcanic in origin, stretches 1,300 kilometers from north to south. Vanuatu is a culturally diverse nation with over 110 language and cultural groups. According to the 2016 Mini Census, the total population in Vanuatu is 250,877 and expected to reach 286,291 by early 2019 (Government of Vanuatu, 2016). The official projections for a medium population growth scenario expect Vanuatu to have a population of 352,000 people in 2030 and 473,000 in 2050 (Beca International Consultants Ltd, GNS & NIWA, 2015). 2. The inhabitants of Vanuatu, called ni-Vanuatu, are primarily (98.5%) of Melanesian descent. The majority of the population is involved in farming and fishing activities, which provide a living for over 60% of the population. Vanuatu’s principal domestic exports include copra, coconut oil, and kava. Other mainstays of the economy are tourism, offshore financial services, and raising cattle. 3. Vanuatu’s economy is stabilizing after Tropical Cyclone Pam in March 2015, a severe drought, and an unexpected change of government in early 2016. The recent growth has largely been driven by disaster recovery and new infrastructure projects, a strong recovery in tourism and aid inflows (ADB, 2018). 4. In the World Risk Index 2019, Vanuatu was assessed as having the highest disaster risk (out of the 180 countries ranked) due to high exposure to natural hazards, coupled with low adaptation capacity. Its geographical location in the equatorial cyclone belt makes it highly exposed to disasters caused by natural hazards (climate-related), while its islands and atolls are vulnerable to sea-level rise. The island country is also located on the Pacific volcanic ring, making it heavily exposed to volcanic activity, earthquakes, and tsunamis. 5. Because most residents reside in low-lying coastal locations, much of the population, road infrastructure and the transport network are exposed to a multitude of hazards including: earthquakes, tsunami, landslips, flooding, cyclones, volcanic eruptions and climate change. This vulnerability is compounded by limited disaster response capacity and the country’s remoteness from external aid. This high vulnerability poses many significant challenges for the country.

2. Port Vila 6. Port Vila is the economic hub and capital city of Vanuatu. It is located on Mele Bay, on the southwest coast of Efate island in the Shefa Province situated roughly in the centre of the archipelago. Port Vila has an estimated urban population of 41,326 in 2019 (an increase from 38,714 people in 2016). About 90% of the population are of Melanesian decent (Government of Vanuatu, 2016). It is about 12 square kilometers (km2) with a population density of 3,444 people per km2.

1 This summary is based on an ADB consultant reports and technical assistances: (i) ADB. 2019. Disaster Risk

Assessment/Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Port Vila Integrated Urban Improvements Project. Consultant’s Final Report. Manila, (ii) ADB. 2016. Strengthening Urban Infrastructure Investment Planning in the Pacific. Manila (TA 9181-REG); (iii) ADB. 2017. Pacific Urban Development Investment Planning and Capacity Development Facility. Manila (TA 9347-REG); and (iv) ADB. 2015. Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resilience of Investments in the Pacific. Manila (TA 8961-REG).

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7. Port Vila has undergone rapid population growth over the last decade, with projections following the 2009 census suggesting a further increase of 16.2% for the ensuing 4 years – an average of 2.2% each year for Port Vila Municipal Council (PVMC) and 2.6% for the peri-urban areas. As a result of rapid economic development, this rate of growth and expansion is expected to continue with pronounced rural to urban migration. A rapid urban population increase and the growth in informal settlements in Port Vila, especially because of migration from the outer islands, have created pressures on existing infrastructure and services. 8. Port Vila is divided into five wards. The Center Ward includes the central business district, the waterfront, 24-hour markets, the Vila Central Hospital and many of the city’s administrative and diplomatic institutions. This area also features Port Vila’s most densely populated informal settlements, some of which are administered under formal lease arrangements. 9. Southern Ward predominantly includes formal residential tenure with some industrial developments along the coastline. Notably, this area is also home to the country’s main port, which processes in excess of 85% of the country’s imports. The associated cruise ship terminal represents a significant portion of the country’s tourism income. Peri-urban areas to the south are also largely covered by forest (SPREP, 2017). 10. The three remaining wards – Malapoa-Tagabe2, Anabrou-Melcoffee, and Freshwota-Tasariki – are located to the north and east. These wards include more subsistence-based communities that rely primarily on family run agricultural plots and fishing for food security and livelihoods. In Tagabe, low-lying areas adjacent to the airport are vulnerable to river flooding. B. Current and Future Climate in Vanuatu

1. Regional drivers of climate 11. The Vanuatu climate is tropical with two distinct seasons, the warm wet season, which runs from November to April, and the slightly cooler dry season from May to October. Tropical cyclones affect Vanuatu during the warmer-wet season, as the high rainfall brings associated low-pressure systems (PCCSP, 2015). Average air temperatures in Vanuatu range between 23.5°C and 27.5°C (PCCSP, 2015). Monthly air temperatures are closely linked to sea-surface temperatures in the area. The Vanuatu rainfall is influenced by many climate factors. 12. South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The SPCZ affects both rainfall and wave height in (Figure 1). The SPCZ is triggered by air rising over warm waters where winds meet and bring a low-level band of cloudiness and precipitation across the pacific islands. During Vanuatu’s wet season the SPCZ intensifies and moves south, generating higher rainfall (PCCSP, 2015). The low pressures associated with this higher rainfall often become tropical cyclones. Despite the SPCZ intensification in Vanuatu’s warm-wet season, during this time the local winds from the SPCZ reduce. This, in turn reduces the mean wave height around Port Vila, making them slightly smaller than the waves of the cooler-dry season. 13. El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO is the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical pacific, causing an irregularly periodic variation in sea surface temperature, dry and wet conditions and winds, usually over the course of a few years. El Niño and La Niña are the warming and cooling phases of the sea surface temperatures respectively. ENSO therefore has a large effect on many of the tropical pacific islands climates, including Vanuatu. El Niño brings lower temperatures and lower rainfall volumes to Vanuatu due to the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean. It is predicted that El Niño and La Niña will continue to occur, however, there is uncertainty around any change in

2 Northern ward includes Malapoa-Tagabe.

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frequency or intensity of these events due to climate change. The difference in the occurrence of tropical cyclones during the two extremes of ENSO, El Niño and La Niña, are statistically insignificant (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). 14. El Niño events generate wet-season maximum and minimum air temperatures above normal due to increased solar radiation as a result of reduced cloud cover. Throughout La Niña years, wet season rainfall is generally above normal and temperatures are frequently lower. ENSO events have substantial effects on wet season rainfall and temperatures, but the influence is slightly weaker than recognised El Niño and La Niña events (JAMSTEC, 2010). Figure 1 shows illustrations of El Niño and La Niña conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Figure 1: Average position of the major climate features from November to April

Note: The Arrows show near surface winds, the blue shading represents the bands of rainfall convergence zones, the dashed oval shows the West Pacific Warm Pool and H represents typical posit (PCCSP, 2015).

2. Temperature

15. Vanuatu has large temperature variability, dictated by sea surface temperature and extra-tropical air masses (Burton, Mustelin, & Urich, 2011). Average air temperatures in Vanuatu range between 23.5°C and 27.5°C (PCCSP, 2015). A change in both annual and seasonal mean air temperatures has become clear in recent years, where both maximum and minimum temperatures in the Port Vila area have increased since 1948 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). 16. By 2030, annual temperatures are projected to increase by at least 1.0°C, irrespective of the emissions trajectory over the next decade and a half. While by 2090, a ‘business as usual’ high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) could result in as much as a 4.0°C annual temperature increase (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). For a lower emissions scenario (RCP2.6) is estimated to give a warming of 0.3-1.2°C. All emissions scenarios indicate that annual average air temperature and sea surface temperature will continue to rise in the future (PCCSP, 2015). 17. There is very high confidence that both sea surface and air temperatures will continue to increase across Vanuatu. However, the range of this change varies increasingly with longer-

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range projections, particularly for higher emissions scenarios (PCCSP, 2015). Vanuatu’s extreme temperatures are projected to increase by a similar amount with very high confidence; this includes both the temperature of extremely hot days and the temperature of extremely cool days. These rises in temperatures will increase the number of very hot days. There is low confidence with regard to the magnitude of the projected changes in extreme temperatures (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). 18. Historical climate data (from 1950 onwards) and simulated historical and future climate for annual mean sea-surface temperature (SST) in the region surrounding Vanuatu, were used for the CMIP5 models shown in Figure 2. The figure shows the future sea surface temperature where shading represents approximately 95% of the range of model projections (twice the inter-model standard deviation), while the solid lines represent the smoothed (20-year running average) multi-model mean temperature.

Figure 2: Future sea surface temperature in the Vanuatu region

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014.

3. Rainfall

19. The SPCZ strongly influences the rainfall in Vanuatu. The SPCZ occurs due to air rising over warm waters where winds converge, resulting in thunderstorms and precipitation (PCCSP, 2015). Port Vila experiences a lot of rain, even throughout its drier months. Where the driest month tends to be October, which still sees an average of 109 millimeters (mm) of precipitation, the wettest month being March, which has an average of 373 mm (Climate-Data.org, 2012). 20. Historically, two thirds of Port Vila’s annual rainfall falls within the warmer-wet season (November to April). However, ENSO brings inter-annual and seasonal fluctuations (RMIT, 2015). In Port Vila, El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions and a cooler than normal dry season, as well as a late start to the warmer-wet season. La Niña events tend to bring the opposite.

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21. The annual mean rainfall for Vanuatu is not projected to increase (low confidence). This low confidence is due to many factors, including the uncertainty of the future of SPCZ and ENSO, the large data spread in the rainfall model projections, and the complex set of processes involved in tropical rainfall (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). 22. Extreme rainfall events, however, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, with a current 1-in-20 year daily rainfall event increasing by 8 mm by 2030 (RCP8.5). This increases to an additional 40 mm by 2090, under a worst-case, very high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The frequency of a current-day 1-in-20 year rainfall would increase to once every five years by 2090 under the same scenario.

4. Tropical cyclones 23. Vanuatu is located in a region just south of the equator known for the regular occurrence of tropical cyclones with damaging winds, rains and storm surge (PCRAFI & PACCSAPP, 2013). Tropical cyclones affect the country during the warmer-wet season between November and April, as the high rainfall brings associated low-pressure systems (PCCSP, 2015). Between 1981 and 2018, 33 of the 74 tropical cyclones that passed through the country were severe events – Category 3 or stronger (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014).

Figure 3: Tropical cyclone tracks since 2012

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2018.

24. The country has been hit by devastating cyclones in the recent past, such as the Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam in 2015, with estimated wind speeds of 250 kilometers per hour, and wind gusts of up to 320 kilometers per hour (Government of Vanuatu, 2015).

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25. The extreme winds brought by the Category 5 storm resulted in total damage estimated at approximately VT48.6B billion (US$449.4 million), or 64.1% of total GDP. It destroyed buildings, vehicles, and many other goods and infrastructure (Fraser Thomas Partners, 2018). It also severely impacted several sectors due to their high vulnerability (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Effect of Tropical Cyclone Pam among sectors

Source: GIZ, 2017.

26. On a global basis, there is a growing level of consistency between models that the frequency of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of the decrease varies from 6%–35% depending on the modelling study. There is also moderate confidence that tropical cyclone numbers are projected to decline in the south-west Pacific Ocean basin (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014).

27. However, there is also a general agreement between models that there will be an increase in the mean maximum wind speed of cyclones by between 2% and 11% globally, and an increase in rainfall rates of the order of 20% within 100 kilometers of the cyclone centre (Knutson et al., 2010). The scientific community has a medium level of confidence in these global projections.

5. Drought 28. Drought events in Vanuatu are highly dependent on ENSO cycles (RMIT, 2015). The western islands of Vanuatu tend to experience drought during El Niño as the rainfall moves east, following the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific flow (Australian AID, 2006). 29. There has been a 5% increase in the frequency of droughts in Vanuatu between the years 1951 and 2010. The duration and magnitude of these droughts has also experienced a slight upward trend (Fraser Thomas Partners, 2018). Most recently in 2015, six months after Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam, parts of Vanuatu experienced a severe 18-month drought. The drought triggered food and water shortages around the country, where cyclone-affected areas were the worst hit. 30. The overall proportion of time spent in drought in Vanuatu is expected to decrease slightly under the RCP8.5 scenario. However, in the alternative, lower warming scenario’s periods of drought are projected to remain much the same. The uncertainty in the projected rainfall values means that the projected drought values also have low confidence (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014).

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6. Wave conditions 31. The SPCZ and the southern trade winds influence Vanuatu’s wave patterns. Throughout the year, Vanuatu’s wind-wave heights are reasonably constant. Waves that hit Vanuatu come mostly from the southeast, which includes those generated from the trade winds and any swell from storm events in the Southern Ocean (PCCSP, 2015). 32. In Port Vila, the average sea state is smooth, characterised mostly by the Southern Hemisphere trade winds. The annual mean wave height is 0.55 meter, the annual mean wave direction is 182˚ and the annual mean wave period is 9.56s (Bosserelle, Reddy, & Lal, 2014). The mean annual wave height has remained relatively unchanged since 1979 (Bosserelle, Reddy, & Lal, 2014). This mean annual wave height is not significantly correlated with the main climate indicators of the region. 33. However, large and severe waves impact the Port Vila coastline occasionally and can cause erosion and inundation of the shore. Severe waves are in the 99th percentile of wave height, meaning they only occur 1% of the time (or 4 days out of the year, and can be generated by cyclones or distant extra-tropical storms. In Port Vila, the threshold for severe waves is 1.6 meters, these waves are always associated with inundation and erosion of the coast (Bosserelle, Reddy, & Lal, 2014). 34. The wave heights between December and March are projected to decrease, while there are no significant changes projected in waves between June and September (PCCSP, 2015). For the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, waves in the wet season could see a decrease of up to 10 centimeters by 2090 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). However, there is low confidence in any projected wave changes.

7. Sea level rise 35. Vanuatu and other islands along the Melanesian archipelago only have one high tide, and one low tide per day, making it diurnal (Australian AID, 2006). Due to its location just outside of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and reasonably far from the equator, Vanuatu’s sea levels are not as impacted by El Niño as the countries close to it. 36. The SEAFRAME (Sea Level Fine Resolution Acoustic Measuring Equipment) gauge at Port Vila, installed in 1993, records sea level and other meteorological data at hourly intervals (Australian AID, 2006). The tide gauge measurements are supplemented by data from earth monitoring stations for geodetic observations, maintained by Geoscience Australia. 37. Sea-level rise measured by these sources is about 6 mm per year, far greater than the global average of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year (PCCSP, 2015). Sea level data has also been collected since 1950 and shows a slower SLR increase up to 1993 (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014). 38. Projected sea level rise is shown in Figure 5, with increases ranging significantly in the longer term, due to uncertainty regarding the contribution and speed of melting of the Antarctic ice sheet (PCCSP, 2015). Inter-annual variability has historically ranged 18cm around the long-term average, and is projected to maintain a similar range as the overall average sea level increases (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2014).

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Figure 5:

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2014).

C. Main Climate Risks in Port Vila 39. This section discusses three main climate risks in Port Vila – flooding, coastal inundation, and strong winds. Along with seismic and tsunami, these hazards were mapped in the Greater Port Vila area as part of the Risk Mapping and Planning for Urban Preparedness project (World Bank, 2016a). This project was led by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department under the wider Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction Project. 40. Through a regional technical assistance for Strengthening Urban Infrastructure Investment Planning in the Pacific, ADB supported the Port Vila Municipal Council with a spatial climate and disaster-risk assessment using latest planning, hazard and asset data for Greater Port Vila (Jain and Linde, 2020). The spatial analysis yielded fine-grained results on climate change and disaster risk. By integrating available spatial data in a transparent analytical framework and aggregating results to planning-relevant units, assumptions and observations could be verified using quantitative evidence. 41. The exercise, for example, revealed the following key trends:

(i) urban assets in the Greater Port Vila area tend to be exposed to at least two hazards (seismic–earthquake, climate–storm);

(ii) the number of hazards and their individual magnitude generally increase from “ridge to shore;”

(iii) the distribution of urban assets is broadly aligned with hazard hot spots; and

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(iv) highly sensitive and highly valuable zones have a significant share of their allocated area in hazard hot spots, while less sensitive/valuable zones seem to have comparably small shares of the area in hazard hot spots.

42. The data produced for the study is the only sufficiently detailed hazard data for the Port Vila municipality and the surrounding peri-urban and coastal areas. As shown in Figure 6, the data covers much of the Greater Port Vila Zoning Plan boundary (although wind was modelled for the entire area). The modelling and mapping of river flooding focused on the north part of Port Vila plus the area of Mele. There are two rivers that flow through this area. 43. In a separate report, the mapping also included urban growth trends, which are likely to increase the risk of impacts of natural hazards over time (World Bank, 2016b). This report found that the areas of Port Vila areas experiencing the greatest population growth are located near the municipal boundaries to the north-west and south-east of the city. Some of these areas are subject to high and very high potential hazard risks.

Figure 6: Geographical area covered by hazard mapping

Source: ADB TA 9181-REG, with data from the Government of Vanuatu, OSM, PCRAFI, World Bank.

1. Typhoons

44. As shown in Figure 7, the hazard modelling shows that the risk from cyclonic winds is evenly distributed throughout the Greater Port Vila area, with the greatest risks predictably in unsheltered coastal areas. This figure reflects 1-minute sustained wind speed datasets for a 100 year mean return period.

45. As earlier discussed, Tropical Cyclone Pam caused a great deal of devastation in Port Vila. The damage of buildings was typically associated with poor roofing structure arising from poor construction standards in many of the colonial-age buildings. The major mode of failure was roofing iron, followed by roof structures not being securely fastened.

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46. It is important to ensure that the design and construction of public and other major infrastructure and development projects considers current and projected risks. This will help minimize loss and damage, especially by developing and adhering to climate-proof building codes, environmental impact assessments, regulations and development guidelines.

Figure 7: Wind hazard for Greater Port Vila

Source: ADB TA 9181-REG, with data from the Government of Vanuatu, OSM, PCRAFI, and World Bank

2. Coastal Inundation 47. Storm surge and wave action can cause considerable damage to waterfront installations and buildings near the waterfront, and Port Vila’s exposure to this hazard is definitely significant. The coastal inundation analysis was based on three scenarios; present day, 2050 and 2100 based on static high spring tide, run-up height and future sea level rise. Figure 8 shows coastal inundation in 2050using LIDAR-based DEM modelling. 48. Urban development has adversely affected the lagoon environments in the southeast of Port Vila. Here, coastal vegetation and wetlands have been cleared to make way for concrete structures that interrupt natural coastal processes, leading to poor water quality, flooding, erosion, and an overall loss of coastal protection (and hence a reduced buffer from storms and cyclones).Worsening impact are expected due to sea level rise. These impacts are likely to include the further loss of coastal habitat, increased coastal erosion and increased flooding from storm surges.

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Figure 8: Coastal inundation hazard in Port Vila and neighboring area councils

Source: ADB TA 9181-REG, with data from the Government of Vanuatu, OSM, PCRAFI, and World Bank

3. Pluvial and fluvial flooding

49. Both urban flooding and coastal flooding are considered primary hazards for Vanuatu and classified as high risk by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR, 2017). As extreme rainfall and weather events increase in frequency and intensity, urban and coastal flooding will consequently increase (RMIT, 2015). Both hazards present moderate to very high levels of potential damage to the local infrastructure. 50. Localized (pluvial) flooding can occur even with average rainfall levels, particularly in the flooding hotspots shown in Figure 9. Insufficient drainage systems and degraded watersheds compromise Port Vila’s ability to cope with this localized flooding. An increase in rainfall or storm surges will exacerbate this issue. In addition, standing water resulting from poor drainage systems has implications for human health, including outbreaks of dengue fever and malaria. 51. As shown by the river flood hazard map (Figure 10), the northern part of Port Vila is also prone to flooding from the two rivers flowing through Mele, just north of Port Vila. This map, produced with ADB technical assistance, reflects flooding for a 100 year mean return period event, and shows different types of buildings by use group. 52. In the future, increased flooding is expected to occur due to higher sea levels and possibly more intense rainfall events. The most vulnerable locations are likely to be around the lower reaches of the rivers, particularly in places where mangroves and other vegetation have been removed. Flooding in this area impacts agriculture, particularly traditional wealth crops such as sugar cane, yam and rice.

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Figure 9: Flash flooding hotspots in Port Vila

Source: RMIT, 2015.

Figure 10: River flooding hazard in northern Port Vila and Mele

Source: ADB TA 9181-REG, with data from the Government of Vanuatu, OSM, PCRAFI, and World Bank

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D. DRR and CRA

53. The approach taken for the project is to integrate a climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction into a single framework. The benefits of a more systematic and integrated approach to reducing the consequences of climate change and natural hazards include: (i) rationalizing multiple funding sources and projects that are addressing similar needs, and (ii) reducing duplication to optimize the use of limited resources and sharing of technical expertise (SPC, et al. 2016). It provides the city government with a more holistic and comprehensive approach to integrating resilience into urban planning, development and management. Figure 10 illustrates the overlap of common concerns of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction for the basis of integration.

Figure 10: Overlap of common concerns of climate change adaptation and disaster

risk reduction

Source: Turnbull, M. et al (2013), cited in SPC (2016).

E. Conclusion 54. The disaster and climate change risk assessment has been used to support the Government of Vanuatu prepare the Greater Port Vila Resilient Urban Development Strategy and Action Plan 2030, which contains a list of prioritize capital investments in urban resilience.3 The trends are being used to inform the preparation of the project and associated urban investments and capacity development activities. The assessment and additional analysis has provided a foundation for integrating disaster risk management and climate change into the overall project and supported ADB’s applications for both disaster risk reduction financing and climate change financing.

3 Government of Vanuatu, Ministry of Internal Affairs. 2020. Greater Port Vila Resilient Urban Development Strategy and Action Plan. Port Vila.

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