Greater Downtown Miami Population Demographics May 30, 2010

Population & Demographic Profile

Downtown Development Authority District and Adjacent Areas of Influence

Prepared for:

May 2010

A Professional Strategic Alliance

Craig A. Werley, [email protected]

305.441-6438

Lewis M. Goodkin, CRE,FRICS,MIRM [email protected] 305.860.0771

Miami DDA - Population & Demographic Profile

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE .................................................................................................... 1

METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA POPULATION ........................................................................................................ 1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS BY DISTRICT ............................................................................................................... 2 DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION ............................................................................. 4 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE AND SELECTED COMPARISONS ........................................................................... 6

Population Age Profile ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Employment Status & Profile ................................................................................................................................ 7

LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT I.1 POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD TRENDS/PROJECTIONS ................................................................. 2 EXHIBIT I.2 POPULATION TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT ......................................................................... 3 EXHIBIT I.3 CURRENT ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT ........................................ 3 EXHIBIT I.4 HOUSEHOLDS - TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT ..................................................................... 4 EXHIBIT I.5 UNIT MIX BY TYPE – RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY CHART .......................................................... 5 EXHIBIT I.6 PERSONAL INCOME TREND/PROJECTION COMPARISON ........................................................... 6 EXHIBIT I.7 POPULATION AGE PROFILE, TREND/PROJECTION, 1990 - 2014 .................................................. 7 EXHIBIT I.8 EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND PROFILE – CIVILIAN POPULATION ............................................ 8

Miami DDA - Population & Demographic Profile

STUDY AREA

Miami DDA - Population & Demographic Profile 1

I. POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

Goodkin Consulting in strategic alliance with Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC was retained by the City of Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) to estimate current population and project future population as an adjunct to studies of the closing and occupancy status of recent/new condominium and multifamily projects in the Downtown Miami Study Area. A demographic profile of the downtown area population including household composition, employment status, age and income is presented in this report along with estimates and projections.

METHODOLOGY

Absorption and occupancy of existing and new housing units in the downtown study area form the basis for current population estimates and projections. Specific methodologies employed included: 1) calculation of the net increase in occupied housing units and composition of units by type and size from the date of the last decennial census in 2000 to the present, and 2) projection of population based on household composition corresponding to the unit mix of the existing and committed new residential units. Nationally recognized private third-party demographic data services including Claritas and ESRI were utilized as benchmark references both to affirm the reasonableness of estimates and projections and as best available source information for the demographic profile.

DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA POPULATION

The Downtown Study Area includes the Miami Downtown Development Authority District and adjacent areas of influence bounded by Interstate 195 (Julia Tuttle Causeway on the north, by I-95 on the west, by SW 26 Road (Rickenbacker Causeway) on the south and by Biscayne Bay on the east. The study area encompasses all or part of eight zip code areas and twelve census tracts. Block level census data and estimates were utilized to define baseline housing inventory and demographic characteristics most accurately corresponding to the study area as defined.

Population and household growth estimates and projections for the Downtown Miami Area are presented in Exhibit I.1. According to the last U.S. decennial census, the resident population in the downtown study area totaled 39,132 persons in 2000. Since the 2000 Census, total population in the Downtown Miami Area is estimated to have increased by nearly 32,000 persons based on the recently completed March 2010 update of the Residential Closings and Occupancy Study. The estimated number of households in the area more than doubled during the same period to an estimated current total of 34,700 households.


EXHIBIT I.1 POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD TRENDS/PROJECTIONS The current downtown area population is estimated to total approximately 71,000 persons and is projected to increase to over 81,000 by 2014. Estimated population in 2010 and projected population in 2014 are based on the number and composition of housing units completed since 2000 as well as committed developments representing additional unit completions during the projection period. Estimates and projections may be conservative since no additions to housing inventory are assumed beyond the current committed pipeline of residential projects identified in the Residential Closings and Occupancy Study. Extensive production of housing in the downtown area since 2000 and current occupancy and absorption patterns indicate an average annual increase of about 1,740 households from 2000 to 2010, slowing moderately to an average annual gain of 1,400 per year during the next four years.

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS BY DISTRICT Population and household growth trends and projections by district within the Downtown Miami Area are shown in Exhibits I.2, I.3 and .4 on the following pages.

39,132

71,000

81,100

17,299

34,70040,300

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2000 Census 2010 Estimate 2014 Projection

Downtown Miami Area Population & Household GrowthPopulation Households

Source: U.S. Census; ESRI; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC.


EXHIBIT I.2 POPULATION TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT The current (2010) estimated population distribution by downtown area district illustrated below shows that the Brickell area accounts for approximately 28,500 persons or approximately 40% of the entire downtown area population.

EXHIBIT I.3 CURRENT ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY DISTRICT

2000 2010 2014AREA Census Estimate ProjectionBRICKELL 13,584 28,500 33,500CBD 2,405 8,900 11,400PARK WEST 1,799 4,000 5,200MEDIA & ENT. 675 2,800 3,300WYNWD/EDGWTR 20,669 26,800 27,700TOTAL DOWNTOWN AREA 39,132 71,000 81,100Source: U.S. Census ; ESRI; Focus Real Estate Advisors , LLC.

Population Trend/ProjectionDowntown Miami Area by District

BRICKELL28,50040%

WYNWOOD/EDGEWATER

26,80038%

CBD8,90012%

PARK WEST4,0006%

MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

2,8004%


EXHIBIT I.4 HOUSEHOLDS - TREND/PROJECTION BY DISTRICT

DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION

Household size and composition is both reflective of and driven by the composition of the residential product inventory (existing and new) in the downtown study area. As graphically illustrated in Exhibit I.5, studio and 1-bedroom units account for nearly half of all units in buildings completed since 2000 and committed pipeline projects. Two-bedroom units represent over 40% of total units and units with three or more bedrooms represent less than 10% of the aggregate inventory.

2000 2010 2014AREA Census Estimate ProjectionBRICKELL 7,502 15,700 18,400CBD 391 3,900 5,300PARK WEST 766 2,000 2,600MEDIA & ENT. 343 1,500 1,800WYNWD/EDGWTR 8,297 11,600 12,200TOTAL DOWNTOWN AREA 17,299 34,700 40,300Source: U.S. Census ; ESRI; Focus Real Estate Advisors , LLC.

Number of Households ‐ Trend/ProjectionDowntown Miami Area by District


EXHIBIT I.5 UNIT MIX BY TYPE – RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY CHART

Change in household composition in the downtown area based on the mix, type, size and pricing of housing reflects a decline in traditional family households as a percent of total households and corresponding increase in non-family households. The change in household mix in the Downtown Miami Area is generally consistent with demographic shifts in other U.S. Metro markets, including increasing percentages of households comprised of unmarried singles, young married couples, empty-nesters and single-parent households. One significant difference between Miami and other U.S. cities is the extent of second home ownership dominated by foreign nationals. Second home owners, who are part-time residents, are predominantly high net worth households generating another dimension of spending and economic impact on the local restaurant, retail and entertainment businesses.

Studio, 10.5%

1‐Bedroom, 38.2%

2‐Bedroom, 41.8%

3‐Bedroom, 6.5%

4+ Bedrooms, 2.9%

Unit Mix by Type ‐ Residential New Construction Completed 2000 ‐ 2009, Downtown Miami Study Area

Source: Goodkin‐Focus Strategic Alliance


DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE AND SELECTED COMPARISONS

A demographic profile of downtown area residents based on 2009 estimates and 2014 projections by ESRI is presented below. Profiles include income, age and employment status in exhibits I.6, I.7 and I.8. Selected comparisons to the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County profiles as of the 2000 Census and in the 2009 estimates and 2014 projections are presented in Exhibit I.6 below. Per Capita and median household incomes in the downtown area are above overall levels for the City.

Median household income in the downtown area is substantially above the citywide level, and is expected to remain about 10% below the countywide average through 2014. However, it should be noted that the downtown Miami area has higher per capita income than that of the county, due to smaller average household size.

EXHIBIT I.6 PERSONAL INCOME TREND/PROJECTION COMPARISON

Population Age Profile

The age composition of population in the downtown area is expected to remain relatively static as illustrated below. Population aged 45 and up is expected to be the most significant segment over the next five years, as this includes mature working aged population at peak income and

2000 2009 2014Census Estimate Projected

Per Capita Income Downtown Area $23,617 $32,453 $34,489 City of Miami $15,132 $18,803 $20,073 Miami‐Dade County $18,497 $22,696 $23,855

Median Household Income Downtown Area $29,396 $40,180 $44,567 City of Miami $23,769 $30,302 $32,526 Miami‐Dade County $36,219 $47,132 $49,707

Source: U.S. Census ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Estate Advisors , LLC.

Personal Income Trend/ProjectionsDowntown Area, City of Miami & Miami‐Dade Co.


career levels. Children under age 18 will remain relatively flat as a percentage of total population. The projected decline shown for the 25 to 34-year old segment of the population over the next five years may be overstated based on the current trend in migration to the downtown Miami area of persons in this age group lured by the inventory of condominium units available for rental at bargain rates.

EXHIBIT I.7 POPULATION AGE PROFILE, TREND/PROJECTION, 1990 - 2014

Employment Status & Profile

The current employment status of the civilian population in the downtown area in comparison to the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County is shown below. It should be noted that these employment estimates reflect resident employment status, not specific payroll or business location data from the Downtown area. As shown, current estimated unemployment among downtown area residents is above the unemployment level for the County, but below the estimated unemployment level in the City overall.

Comparison of estimated employment by industry sector shows the significantly higher percentages of downtown residents employed in the professional and technical services, finance/insurance, information, and real estate sectors than in both the City and County. These sectors represent generally higher pay levels than most other sectors and are consistent with downtown area business infrastructure.

1990 2000 2009 2014Census Census Estimate Projection

Total Population by Age 36,140 100.0% 39,176 100.0% 68,900 100.0% 85,000 100.0%Age 0 to 9 5,273 14.6% 4,247 10.8% 7,200 10.5% 8,700 10.2%Age 10 to 17 3,108 8.6% 3,010 7.7% 5,100 7.5% 6,400 7.6%Age 18 to 24 3,727 10.3% 4,011 10.2% 5,300 7.7% 6,200 7.3%Age 25 to 34 7,462 20.6% 8,000 20.4% 11,700 16.9% 12,200 14.4%Age 35 to 44 5,719 15.8% 7,215 18.4% 12,500 18.1% 14,700 17.3%Age 45 to 59 5,430 15.0% 7,043 18.0% 15,200 22.1% 20,000 23.6%Age 60 to 74 3,743 10.4% 3,832 9.8% 7,900 11.4% 11,500 13.5%Age 75 and over 1,678 4.6% 1,818 4.6% 4,000 5.8% 5,300 6.2%

Source: U.S. Census ; Clari tas ; ESRI; Focus Rea l Estate Advisors , LLC.

Population Age Profile Downtown Miami AreaTrend/Projection

% % % %


EXHIBIT I.8 EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND PROFILE – CIVILIAN POPULATION

2009 Population by Industry and Occupation

# % # % # %2009 Estimated Civilian Population 16+ in Labor Force by Employment Status 1,128,274 158,740 30,485

Employed 1,010,070 90% 137,877 87% 26,765 88%Unemployed 118,204 10% 20,863 13% 3,719 12%

Unemployment Rate 10.50% 13.10% 12.20%

2009 Estimated Employed Civilian Population Age 16+ by Industry 1,010,070 137,876 26,765

Agriculture/Mining 6,826 0.7% 643 0.5% 81 0.3%Construction 76,846 7.6% 15,366 11.1% 2,006 7.5%Manufacturing 46,866 4.6% 6,702 4.9% 1,132 4.2%Wholesale Trade 49,667 4.9% 6,187 4.5% 1,183 4.4%Retail Trade 117,905 11.7% 14,318 10.4% 2,211 8.3%Transportation and Utilities 69,786 6.9% 7,848 5.7% 1,386 5.2%Information 22,878 2.3% 2,789 2.0% 866 3.2%Finance/Insurance 51,671 5.1% 5,490 4.0% 1,668 6.2%Real Estate/Rental/Leasing 35,810 3.5% 4,807 3.5% 1,165 4.4%Prof/Scientific/Tech Services 63,532 6.3% 7,962 5.8% 3,278 12.2%Mgmt of Companies/Enterprises 582 0.1% 24 0.0% 15 0.1%Admin/Support/Waste Mgmt Srvcs 54,379 5.4% 8,451 6.1% 1,539 5.7%Educational Services 80,644 8.0% 8,172 5.9% 1,598 6.0%Health Care/Social Assistance 127,468 12.6% 15,505 11.2% 2,903 10.8%Arts/Entertainment/Recreation 21,305 2.1% 3,058 2.2% 769 2.9%Accommodation/Food Services 79,330 7.9% 14,799 10.7% 2,336 8.7%Other Services (excl Public Admin) 60,793 6.0% 10,948 7.9% 1,576 5.9%Public Administration 43,782 4.3% 4,807 3.5% 1,054 3.9%

Source: U.S. Census ; ESRI; Focus Real Es tate Advisors , LLC.

Employment Profile ‐ Civilian PopulationMiami‐Dade Co., City of Miami and Downtown Area

Miami-Dade City of Miami Downtown Study Area


CONDITIONS FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS STUDIES The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting engagements performed by Goodkin/Focus Strategic Alliance (Goodkin/Focus). Reports may contain estimates of future sales/rental activity (e.g., absorption rates, sales values/rents, etc.) or other events that represent the consultant's view of reasonable expectations at a particular point in time, but such activities or events are not offered as predictions or as assurances that absorption levels will be achieved, that events will occur, or that indicated prices/rents will be offered or accepted. Actual results achieved during the period covered by our analyses will vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Information furnished by others is presumed to be reliable, and unless specified in the report to the contrary, has not been verified; no responsibility, whether legal or otherwise, is assumed for its accuracy, and it cannot be guaranteed as being certain. No single item of information will be completely relied upon to the exclusion of other information. Goodkin/Focus does not, as part of its engagement, perform an audit, review, examination or appraisal (as defined by the AICPA) of any historical or prospective financial information used, and therefore does not express any opinion with regard to same. The report and conclusions included therein are intended for the information of the person or persons to whom they are addressed, solely for the purposes stated therein, and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. In the event that the report is distributed to third parties, Goodkin/Focus shall be held harmless relative to their use or reliance on the report for any purpose. Neither our report, nor its contents, nor any reference to the consultants of Goodkin/Focus, may be included or quoted in any offering circular or registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, appraisal, loan or other agreement or document without our prior written permission. Consulting engagements are accepted with the understanding that there is no obligation to provide services after completion of the original assignment or beyond any updates or other supplemental services specifically defined in this agreement. If the need for subsequent services related to a consulting engagement (e.g., testimony, updates, conferences, or other services) is contemplated, special arrangements acceptable to Goodkin/Focus must be made in advance. Conclusions presented in our report assume market conditions as observed as of the current date of our market research (stated in the letter of transmittal.) Goodkin/Focus assumes no liability should market conditions materially change because of unusual or unforeseen circumstances.

Documents

Greater Downtown Miami Population Demographics May 30, 2010