GrainCorp - MacquarieMacquarie Wealth Management GrainCorp 3 November 2015 3 Our FY16 forecasts 80% Fig 4 GNC EBITDA by segment (A$m) Fig 5 Segment EBITDA % · 2015-11-3

Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

AUSTRALIA

GNC AU Underperform

Price (at 07:05, 03 Nov 2015 GMT) A$8.48

Valuation A$ 6.93 - Avge of SoP and Through-the-cycle valuation

12-month target A$ 6.93

12-month TSR % -16.5

Volatility Index Low

GICS sector Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Market cap A$m 1,941

30-day avg turnover A$m 6.6

Number shares on issue m 228.9

Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Sep 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E

Revenue m 4,094.1 4,013.8 3,785.6 3,921.8 EBIT m 166.8 100.8 129.8 206.4 Reported profit m 50.3 32.1 54.1 99.1

Adjusted profit m 94.5 44.5 54.1 99.1 Gross cashflow m 221.0 178.5 192.5 236.4 CFPS ¢ 96.9 78.2 84.4 103.6 CFPS growth % -24.7 -19.2 7.9 22.8 PGCFPS x 8.8 10.8 10.1 8.2 PGCFPS rel x 1.08 1.22 1.17 1.04 EPS adj ¢ 41.4 19.5 23.7 43.4 EPS adj growth % -45.9 -52.9 21.5 83.4

PER adj x 20.5 43.5 35.8 19.5 PER rel x 1.42 2.81 2.42 1.47 Total DPS ¢ 20.0 9.6 14.2 26.1 Total div yield % 2.4 1.1 1.7 3.1 Franking % 100 100 100 100

ROA % 5.1 3.0 3.8 6.0 ROE % 5.4 2.5 3.1 5.5 EV/EBITDA x 10.6 13.2 11.6 9.0 Net debt/equity % 42.8 47.3 52.3 51.1 P/BV x 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

GNC AU vs ASX 100, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2015

(all figures in AUD unless noted)

3 November 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited

GrainCorp Cyclical and structural pressures remain Event

GNC has announced expectations for FY15 underlying NPAT of $45m

(statutory NPAT of $32m). GNC expects an underlying EBITDA of $235m. We

have adjusted our FY16 and ‘mid-cycle’ earnings forecasts to reflect

near/medium term seasonal and structural headwinds.

Impact

GNC’s FY15 EBITDA expectation is below the prior management range,

while NPAT is expected to be at the bottom of the range. The FY15 result

was impacted by adverse conditions facing the Marketing business. This

reflected erosion in Australia’s freight advantage to major export markets and

competition for grain origination. This was partially offset by stronger than

expected results within the S&L business.

We believe the upstream business will face intensifying headwinds in

FY16. Key challenges for the Marketing business are unlikely to dissipate,

particularly given our subdued outlook for the current harvest. We believe that

El Nino poses a seasonal challenge and is likely to see crop volumes decline

relative to FY15 levels. This is likely to be exacerbated by increased

competition, which has not materially impacted earnings thus far but will begin

to feature from FY16. We expect the latter throughput impact of ~1.5mt, while

profitability is impacted by: 1) associated fixed cost leverage; and additional

price competition. With these factors likely to create a perfect storm in FY16,

we have lowered our FY16 EPS forecasts by 36%. On the basis of structural

headwinds, we have also lowered our mid-cycle earnings estimates.

There has been almost daily speculation re: the likelihood of an ADM bid. We

believe that a premium is substantially factored into the current share

price, but see significant risk to this eventuating. Firstly, we acknowledge

the change in political environment, but note the influence of the Nationals

remains. Secondly, we do not doubt ADM’s M&A appetite, but note that there

appear to be other assets in Australia more readily available (eg Glencore).

Further, ADM retains options outside of Australia to broaden its footprint. For

example, in late October, ADM increased its stake in Singapore listed Wilmar.

While an offer remains a risk to our view, we do not believe that this is a

foregone conclusion.

Earnings and target price revision

We lower our FY15 EPS forecasts by 22% to reflect management’s update.

Our FY16 EPS has declined by 36% to more fully capture the cyclical and

structural headwinds that we anticipate. Our PT has increased modestly to

$6.93 as a roll-forward of our valuation offsets lower forecast earnings.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: A$6.93 based on average of FY16 SoP and through-

the-cycle valuation methodology.

Catalyst: FY16 result on 12 November.

Action and recommendation

We retain our U/P ($6.93 TP). While the FY15 update was disappointing, our

key concern remains FY16. Marketing headwinds aside, we believe the

upstream business will face intensifying seasonal (El Nino) and structural

(competition) headwinds.

http://www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures

Macquarie Wealth Management GrainCorp

3 November 2015 2

FY15 update

Fig 1 GNC EBITDA by segment (A$m) Fig 2 Segment EBITDA % contributions

Source: Company data, November 2015 Source: Company data, November 2015

GNC has announced expected FY15 results, flagging an underlying NPAT of $45m

(statutory NPAT of $32m). The company expects an underlying EBITDA of $235m. GNC

expects SIs of $12m (previous guidance was $7m) with the uplift attributed to additional

restructuring costs in S&L and Oils and an impairment of a Malt elevator in Canada.

Expected EBITDA of $235m is below the prior guidance range of $240-270m and compares

with our prior forecast of $254m. We now forecast an EBITDA of $235m, consistent the

company’s expectations. Expected underlying NPAT of $45m compares with previous guidance of

$45-60m, and is below our prior forecast of $57m. Statutory NPAT of $32m compares with our

previous $50m estimate. Our revised estimates are consistent with management

expectations.

The company noted that the FY15 result was impacted by adverse conditions facing the

Marketing business. GNC expects marketing volumes of 6mt and a full year EBITDA loss of

$2m. While volumes were broadly in line with our estimate, we had previously forecast an EBITDA

profit of $18m. GNC expects PBTDA loss of $16m versus a broadly break-even result that we had

previously forecast. Weakness within the Marketing business was attributed to a reduction in

Australia freight advantage to major export markets (lower fuel and freight rates) and also

competition for the origination of grain given a smaller Eastern Australian crop relative to

other key origination regions.

GNC indicated that the weak Marketing result was partially offset by a stronger than

expected performance within the S&L business. Receivals of 7.4mt were towards the top of

the prior range (Macquarie estimate 7.1mt; prior management guidance range 7.0-7.5mt) and

grain exports of 3.5mt were above guidance (Macquarie estimate 2.8mt; prior company guidance

range of 2.5-3.0mt). As a result, our throughput estimate has increased from 13.2mt to

14.3mt (down from 15.7mt in FY14). We forecast an EBITDA/t of $2.69/t, down from $4.59/t

in FY14. The decline in EBITDA/t reflects lower volumes and adverse crop mix.

We forecast Malt FY15 EBITDA of $132m, up 5% from pcp levels. Our sales volumes forecast

of 1.27mt is in line with guidance. Our EBITDA/t estimate of $103/t compares with $96/t as FX,

processing performance and benefits from strategic initiatives offset the impact of poor barley

quality in North America. We forecast Oils FY15 EBITDA of A$80m (up 9% vs the pcp), an

Allied Mills contribution of A$10m (up 3% vs the pcp) and corporate costs of $23m (up 2%

vs the pcp).

Fig 3 Our revised FY15 EBITDA forecasts

$m FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15F

S&L 249.7 179.3 71.8 38.6 Marketing 63.1 54.3 36.4 -2.0 Malt 117.1 101.2 125.0 131.8 Oils 0.0 75.3 73.1 79.5 Other -26.2 -26.4 -22.6 -23.1 Allied Mills 10.2 11.7 9.6 9.9 Total EBITDA 413.9 395.4 293.3 234.7

Source: Company data, November 2015

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3 November 2015 3

Our FY16 forecasts

Fig 4 GNC EBITDA by segment (A$m) Fig 5 Segment EBITDA % contributions


We believe that FY16 is likely to prove a pivotal year for S&L and therefore for GNC more

generally. FY16 is likely to be the first test of the impact from increased competition on GNC

earnings, particularly within Ports as the Quattro terminal goes on-line. In addition, we see a risk

from seasonal conditions as the East Australian crop faces El Nino conditions. Management has

noted that growing areas in NSW and VIC have faced particularly hot and dry conditions through

September and October.

GNC noted that the average of recent ABARES and Australian Crop Forecasters’ estimates

suggest a 16.1mt winter crop. However, in our view this does not fully reflect challenging

September/October 2015 harvest conditions.

We forecast FY16f group EBITDA of $268m (-14% vs prior forecasts). Within this, we forecast

an FY16 S&L EBITDA of $46m (+20% vs FY15f). Our S&L forecast assumes a throughput of

12.3mt (vs 14.3mt forecast in FY15 and a historical average of about 18mt (FY08-FY15F).

We assume a winter harvest of about 13.4mt (vs 14.5mt in the pcp and our prior forecast of

~14.2mt), which is below the current ABARES/ACF forecasts of 16.1mt. We assume a summer

crop of 1.7mt (vs 2.1mt in the pcp and our prior forecast of~2.0mt). Further, we assume a decline

in GNC share of receivals (to ~45%) and grain exports (to ~60%) providing volumes of 6.8mt and

2.5mt respectively. This compares with 7.4mt and 3.5mt respectively in FY15f.

Fig 6 EBITDA versus Throughput... Fig 7 Leverage evident, but competition still to come


We note that there has been a reasonably strong relationship between throughput and

EBITDA/t. This is driven by significant fixed cost leverage within the S&L network, which is

magnified by take or pay rail contracts. Based on the historical relationship, throughput of 12.3mt

would imply an EBITDA/t of ~$4.30/t. However we highlight that competition will not just impact

volumes (with operational leverage impact on EBITDA/t), but it is also likely to impact pricing. We

assume a ~$0.50 price impact, which results in FY16f EBITDA/t forecast of $3.78.

In FY14a-FY15f profitability been below levels implied by the historical relationship

highlighted above. We believe this reflects a crop skew towards VIC (away from Northern

NSW and QLD), which has adversely impacted GNC. We assume a normalisation of this mix,

which sees our $3.79/t EBITDA forecast improved from FY15f levels of $2.69/t despite lower

volumes and estimated price impact from competition.

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3 November 2015 4

We forecast an FY16f Marketing EBITDA of A$5m (A$30m previously). We have lowered our

assumption as we believe a majority of the headwinds that impacted the businesses in FY15 are

likely to remain in place given freight/transport costs are likely to remain low and East Australian

crop harvest will face pressure from El Nino.

Other key FY16 forecasts include Malt EBITDA of A$137m (+4% vs FY15f), Oils EBITDA of

A$93m (+17% vs FY15f), an Allied Mills contribution of A$10m (+3% vs FY15f) and corporate

costs of A$24m. We forecast FY16f adjusted NPAT of A$54m, up 21% from FY15f but still

43% below FY14a.

Fig 8 FY15 & FY16 forecasts

FY13a 1H14a 2H14a FY14a 1H15a 2H15e FY15e FY16e

Revenue $m Storage & Logistics 655.3 279.9 163.9 443.8 -32% 209.0 201.5 410.5 -8% 356.2 -13% Country & Logistics 421.6 196.8 102.6 299.4 -29% 149.5 121.5 271.0 -9% 237.1 -13% Ports 233.8 83.1 61.3 144.4 -38% 59.5 80.0 139.5 -3% 119.1 -15% Marketing 2,169.3 965.8 941.3 1,907.1 -12% 916.8 932.3 1,849.1 -3% 1,668.8 -10% Malt 976.6 507.1 542.3 1,049.4 7% 532.5 521.6 1,054.1 0% 1,054.1 0% Oils 961.6 476.4 460.8 937.2 -3% 470.5 485.4 955.9 2% 975.1 2% Other 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total revenue 4,762.8 2,229.3 2,108.5 4,337.8 -9% 2,129.0 2,140.9 4,269.7 -2% 4,054.2 -5% EBITDA Storage & Logistics 179.3 62.5 9.3 71.8 -60% 26.6 12.1 38.7 -46% 46.4 20%

Marketing 54.3 16.2 20.2 36.4 -33% 7.7 -9.7 -2.0 -105% 5.0

-350

% Malt 101.2 57.2 67.8 125.0 24% 69.4 62.4 131.8 5% 137.0 4% Allied Mills 11.7 3.6 6.0 9.6 -18% 3.4 6.5 9.9 3% 10.2 3% Oils 75.3 36.4 36.7 73.1 -3% 41.7 37.8 79.5 9% 93.1 17% Other -26.4 -9.8 -12.8 -22.6 -14% -12.7 -10.4 -23.1 2% -23.5 2% Total EBITDA 395.4 166.1 127.2 293.3 -26% 136.1 98.7 234.8 -20% 268.3 14% Margins

Storage & Logistics 27.4% 22.3% 5.7% 16.2% 12.7% 6.0% 9.4% 13.0% Marketing 2.5% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% -1.0% -0.1% 0.3% Malt 10.4% 11.3% 12.5% 11.9% 13.0% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% Oils 7.8% 7.6% 8.0% 7.8% 8.9% 7.8% 8.3% 9.6% Total EBITDA margin 8.3% 7.5% 6.0% 6.8% 6.4% 4.6% 5.5% 6.6% Assumptions Storage & Logistics Grain carry-in 4.3 2.3 5.4 2.3 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.8

Receivals 10.4 7.6 0.4 8.0 6.7 0.6 7.4 6.8 Grain carry-out 2.3 5.4 1.9 5.2 1.8 2.5 Grain exports handled 8.3 2.8 1.6 4.4 1.4 2.1 3.5 2.5 Non-grain exports 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.5 2.5 Throughput 23.8 10.9 4.8 15.7 8.7 5.6 14.3 12.3 EBITDA/t $7.55 $5.73 $1.96 $4.59 $3.05 $2.14 $2.69 $3.79 Marketing Marketing tonnes 6.1 3.5 2.7 6.2 3.2 2.8 6.0 5.7 PBT/t $5.84 $1.86 $3.85 $2.73 ($1.06) ($6.18) ($3.43) ($3.45) Malt Sales tonnes (m) 1.280 0.620 0.680 1.300 0.620 0.654 1.274 1.274 EBITDA/t $79.06 $92.26 $99.71 $96.15 $111.94 $95.36 $103.43 $107.56

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2015


3 November 2015 5

Our mid-cycle forecasts

Fig 9 Changes to our S&L mid-cycle assumptions

S&L Mid-cycle metrics Prior Revised

Australia east coast Harvest (mt) 18.0 18.0 Domestic consumptions 10.0 10.0 Export 8.0 8.0 GNC throughput Carry-in (mt) 3.0 3.0 Upcountry receivals (mt) 9.5 9.0 Upcountry receivals share 53% 50% Domestic grain outload 4.9 4.8 Share of domestic consumption 49% 48% Grain exports handled 5.6 4.6 GNC grain export share 70% 58% Grain received at port (incl. above) 2.2 1.3 Share of production 12% 7% Non-grain shipments 2.0 1.9 Grain carry-out 4.1 3.9 Throughput 18.0 16.5 Profitability EBITDA/t (vol. impact) 6.60 5.66 Price impact 0.00 0.50 EBITDA/t 6.60 5.16 EBITDA (A$m) 119 85


Given the shifting competitive landscape, we have adjusted our mid-cycle estimates. The table

above highlights the key changes to our S&L mid-cycle assumptions. We now forecast a mid-

cycle throughput of 16.5mt (18mt previously) and EBITDA/t of $5.16/t ($6.60/t previously).

This is driven by lower share of receivals, grain outload and, most significantly, a lower

share of exports.

Fig 10 Malt & Oils a partial offset to reduced S&L mid-cycle earnings

Mid-cycle Year 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f Prior Current

S&L 250 179 72 39 46 119 85 Marketing 63 54 36 -2 5 30 30 Malt 117 101 125 132 137 132 142 Oils 0 75 73 80 93 97 105 Other -26 -26 -23 -23 -24 -23 -23 Allied Mills 10 12 10 10 10 12 12 Total EBITDA 414 395 293 235 268 366 350


Adjustments to Malt and Oils mid-cycle earnings reflect the following initiatives (we currently

attribute 75% of targeted benefits):

In May 2015, GNC announced US$75m investment (A$95m) to increase capacity at its

Pocatello malting facility (Idaho, USA). The project is expected to increase capacity by 120kt,

bringing total capacity at the facility to 220kt. The company indicated that the project is

expected to generate returns above its historical hurdle rate of 12%, implying incremental

earnings of >US$9m (A$13m at spot AUD/USD). Completion is expected around the middle

of calendar year 2017.

In May 2015, GNC announced $50m investment to increase oilseed crushing capacity at its

Numurkah facility (VIC). The investment will increase our crush capacity at Numurkah by 40%,

and provides the flexibility to increase crush capacity by a further 40%. The investment is

expected to generate an incremental EBITDA of $10m from FY18.


3 November 2015 6

Our GNC valuation

Fig 11 Valuation for GNC

FY16 Multiple Multiple Value Value Mid-cycle Mid-cycle Mid-cycle EBITDA High Low High Low EBITDA multiple Value

Storage & Logistics 46.4 7.0 8.0 324.8 371.2 85.1 7.0 596.0 Marketing 5.0 7.0 8.0 35.0 40.1 29.5 7.5 221.2 Malt 137.0 7.5 8.5 1,027.8 1,164.8 141.5 7.5 1,061.4 Oils 93.1 7.5 8.5 698.5 791.7 104.4 8.0 835.5 Other/corporate -23.5 7.0 8.0 -164.6 -188.1 -172.9

Total 258.1 7.4 8.4 1,921.6 2,179.6 2,541.2 Average net debt (2H14, 2H15) 957.8 957.8 794.0 Add: Allied Mills investment 161.5 161.5 161.5

Equity value 1,125.3 1,383.3 1,908.7 No. of shares 228.2 228.2 228.2

Value per share 4.93 6.06 8.36

FY16 Average 5.50 FY16 & Mid-cycle avg. 6.93


We have raised our GNC average valuation and target price from A$6.72 to A$6.93 per share. We

note that our valuation/target price is set in line with an average of FY1 SOTP and our mid-cycle

SOTP based valuation. The change is driven by:

Roll forward of our FY1 based SOTP from FY15 to FY16 has seen this component of our

average valuation increase from $4.62 to $5.50 despite a reduction to our FY16f forecasts.

This was partially offset by a reduction in our mid-cycle SOTP based valuation from $8.82 to

$8.36. This is driven by reduction to assumed mid-cycle S&L earnings, partially offset by an

increase to Malt and Oils mid-cycle forecasts (as discussed previously).

Fig 12 GNC’s earnings have declined significantly since the ADM’s approach

Fig 13 The decline in earnings was driven by the upstream S&L and marketing businesses


ADM’s final offer of A$13.20 per share (including dividend) was announced in April 2013. Since

then, GNC’s earnings have declined substantially. We forecast FY15f adjusted EBITDA of

$235m (consistent with management guidance). This represents a 43% decline from FY12a

earnings and a 41% decline from FY13a levels. Our FY16 forecast of A$268m represents a 35%

decline from FY12a and a 32% decline from FY13a EBITDA. We note that the reduction in

earnings has been predominantly volume driven with throughput of 29.0mt in FY12 and 23.8mt in

FY13, declining to our forecast of 14.3mt and 12.3mt respectively in FY15f and FY16f.

Our mid-cycle EBITDA estimate is A$350m. This represents a 16% decline from FY12a and

12% decline from FY13a EBITDA.

The decline in GNC’s earnings over this period has reflected weakness in its upstream

businesses (S&L and Marketing). Combined, these businesses have declined by 88% from

FY12a and 84% from FY13a levels. In FY12a the upstream business accounted for 71% of group

EBITDA. We expect this to decline to 14% in FY15f. Management has targeted a long-term

EBITDA contribution of 33% from the upstream business.

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3 November 2015 7

Fig 14 What does the reduced earnings base mean imply based on ADM’s 2013 bid?

Apr-13 Based on FY15f earnings Based on FY16f earnings Mid-cycle

Offer price (A$) 13.20 Implied offer price (A$) 5.34 Implied offer price (A$) 6.70 Implied offer price (A$) 10.00 Shares on issue 228.9 Shares on issue 228.9 Shares on issue 228.9 Shares on issue 228.9 Equity value 3,021 Equity value 1,222.5 Equity value 1,533.0 Equity value 2,288.9 2H12/1H13 Net Debt 620.3 2H14/1H15 Net Debt 957.8 2H14/1H15 Net Debt 957.8 2H14/1H15 Net Debt 957.8 EV 3,642 EV 2,180.3 EV 2,490.8 EV 3,246.7 FY1 (FY13) cons. EBITDA 392.2 FY15f EBITDA 234.8 FY16f EBITDA 268.3 Mid-cycle 349.7 EV/EBITDA 9.3x EV/EBITDA 9.3x EV/EBITDA 9.3x EV/EBITDA 9.3x At $13.20 At $13.20 At $13.20 EV/EBITDA 16.9x EV/EBITDA 14.8x EV/EBITDA 11.4x


Based on ADM’s price of $13.20 per share and consensus forward (FY13) EBITDA of $392m, the

offer valued GNC at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.3x. Applying this to FY15f EBITDA of $235m

implies an offer price of $5.34 per share (lower earnings and higher next debt relative to 2013

levels). Applying 9.3x EV/EBITDA FY16f EBITDA of $268m implies an offer price of $6.70 per

share. However, we highlight that FY15 reflects cyclically challenged earnings.

Applying a valuation of 9.3x EV/EBITDA to our mid-cycle EBITDA forecast of $350m (and

current net debt levels), implies a share price of $10.00 per share.

We note that the offer price of $13.20 implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.9x consensus FY15f

EBITDA forecasts, 14.8x consensus FY16f EBITDA and 11.4x our mid-cycle EBITDA forecast.

Fig 15 AUD/USD Fig 16 AUD/CAD

Source: IRESS, October 2015 Source: IRESS, October 2015

From ADM’s perspective the devaluation of the AUD makes the potential acquisition cheaper in its

local currency terms. While the AUD has devaluated by 31% relative to the USD, it is worth

noting that it has only devaluated by 11% vs the CAD. Further, we’d highlight the offsetting

impact on an acquirer’s leverage and gearing via lower earnings and assets acquired.

Fig 17 Graincorp is trading at a premium relative to global listed peers

PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x)

Agriculture FY15 FY16 FY17 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY15 FY16 FY17

GrainCorp 43.5 35.8 19.5 12.5 11.4 9.1 29.1 23.6 15.1 Bunge 13.9 11.4 10.0 6.7 5.8 5.4 10.1 8.4 7.4 Archer Daniels Midland 15.2 13.7 12.8 8.8 8.1 6.7 13.1 11.7 9.7 Alliance Grain Traders 18.6 12.6 10.4 7.7 12.7 9.3 na Andersons Inc 9.2 15.2 11.3 5.4 5.1 4.3 16.4 19.1 10.5 Wilmar International 12.2 11.0 10.2 12.7 11.4 10.8 18.6 16.4 15.5 Agriculture average 18.8 16.6 12.7 9.4 8.3 7.2 16.7 14.8 11.6


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3 November 2015 8

Fig 18 Transaction metrics

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, October 2015

Valuation analysis – Segment detail

Storage and logistics

Fig 19 Storage & Logistics supply chain

Source: Company data, October 2015

Fig 20 Excess capacity in both Country & Logistics and Ports

Source: Company data, October 2015 Source: Company data, October 2015

GNC receives, stores and transports grain (wheat, barley, pulses, canola, sorghum) produced in

NSW, Queensland and Victoria. It has a network of over 200 receival and storage sites with

capacity to handle 20mmt of grain, including 70 primary sites located on branch and main rail

lines, with another +130 receival sites that are opened and/or closed depending on demand.


3 November 2015 9

GNC manages a fleet of 19 trains under long-term take-or-pay contracts with QR and Pacific

National (+5mmt of capacity) and road transport (+1mmt capacity). GNC handles around 55-60%

of the grain grown in eastern Australia, and has ~60% share of the eastern Australian logistics

market

GNC operates seven out of the eight bulk export grain terminals and two container terminals

located in NSW, Queensland and Victoria with annual elevation capacity of 16mmt. It also handles

around 1.5mmt of non-grain commodities per year (woodchips, fertiliser, mineral sands)

Fig 21 Our S&L enterprise value is A$472m

FY16 Low High Mid-cycle

Throughput 12.3 12.3 16.5 EBITDA/t 3.79 3.79 5.16 EBITDA 46 46 85 Multiple 7 8 7.0 EV 325 371 596 FY16 Avg 348 Avg Valn. 472


The book value of S&L assets is above our average valuation (blend of FY16f-based SOTP and

mid-cycle valuation), but below our mid-cycle valuation. The carrying value of segment assets was

$561m as at March 2015. With liabilities of $89m, the carrying value of net assets is $472m.

The replacement cost of GNC’s S&L network is likely to be well in excess of the current carrying

value (and our valuation). While this is difficult to estimate, we note the following press reports that

provide a crude indication of replacement cost.

C&L: As part of project regeneration, GNC has developed a 230kt, 70 hectare greenfield

receival and storage site in Southern NSE (Calleen). Press reports indicate that total capital

spend on the site was $14m. While this is very inexact and there are a number variables,

extrapolating the $14m spend to GNC’s ~20mt storage network implies a value of

$1.2bn.

However, we note that peak utilisation of GNC’s network is ~85% and average utilisation is

about 40%. In our view, this raises the question re: the merits of replicating GNC’s footprint.

We note that CBH recently decided against the development of a country network of receivals

points to feed grain into the Newcastle Agri Terminal (NAT).

Ports: Recent media reports indicated that that ~$70m was invested in the NAT. The site has

about 60kt of storage capacity and rail access. The facility has 1.5mt of shipping capacity.

Graincorp operates 7 ports with 15mt of shipping capacity. This crudely implies a value

of $700m for GNC’s port network. It is worth noting that Mitsubishi acquired Olam Grain

Australia (which held a 32.5% stake in NAT and a relatively small grain accumulation team)

for ~$68m.

GNC owns two of the seven ports with the remaining five held under long term leases and

average utilisation of the ports network is about 40%.

Fig 22 Our Marketing enterprise valuation


Volume 5.7 5.7 5.5 EBITDA/t 0.9 0.9 3.0 EBITDA 5.0 5.0 16.5 Multiple 7.0 8.0 7.5 EV 35.0 40.1 123.9 FY15 Avg 37.5 Avg Valn. 80.7



3 November 2015 10

GNC buys and sells more than 4mmt of wheat, barley, sorghum, and canola per year, servicing

both domestic and overseas customers (50/50 split). It buys direct from growers on the spot

market or via contracts, and through grain pools. GNC has marketing offices in Australia,

Singapore, UK, Germany, and Canada.

The carrying value of segment assets was $738m as at March 2015, largely comprised of grain

inventories (which are matched against short term commodity funding). With liabilities of $704m,

the carrying value of net assets is $34m.

Fig 23 Our Malt enterprise valuation

FY16 High Low Mid-cycle

Volume 1.3 1.3 1.3 EBITDA/t 107.6 107.6 111.1 EBITDA 137.0 137.0 141.5 Multiple 7.5 8.5 7.5 EV 1,027.8 1,164.8 1,061.4 FY15 Avg 1,096.3 Avg Valn. 1,078.8


Post the 2009 acquisition of Unit Malt Holdings GNC became the 4th largest commercial malt

producer in the world, with operations in the US, Canada, UK, Germany and Australia. This

A$757m acquisition (October 2009) reflected a 7x 2008a EBITDA and a 5.7x LTM EBITDA.

Subsequent bolt-on acquisitions (Schill Maltz) and capacity expansions have seen GNC’s malting

capacity increase to ~1.4mmt.

The carrying value of segment assets is $1,426m as at March 2015. With liabilities of $620m, the

carrying value of net assets is $806m.

Fig 24 Our Oils enterprise valuation


EBITDA 93.1 93.1 104.4 Multiple 7.5 8.5 8.0 EV 698.5 791.7 835.5 FY15 Avg 745.1 Avg Valn. 790.3


In August 2012 GNC announced the acquisition of oil seed crushing and edible oil refining

businesses Gardner Smith and Integro Foods for $472m. Once completed (expected October

2012), the acquisition of these businesses will see the creation of a new segment, GrainCorp Oils.

The price paid represents 7.4x LTM EBITDA, or 7.0x including $4m of targeted synergies

(excludes Gardner Smith oilseed and oil inventory, which are to be funded via a separate oilseed

and trade inventory facility). Acquisition multiples are similar to the 7.0x 2008 EBITDA that GNC

paid for United Malt Holdings in October 2009, but lower than other recent global agriculture

transactions including Agrium’s acquisition of AWB in August 2010 for 9.5x EBITDA and

Glencore’s proposed acquisition of Viterra at 8.7x EBITDA

The carrying value of segment assets is $745m as at March 2015. With liabilities of $181m, the

carrying value of net assets is $565m.

We note that the oils business includes 14 bulk liquids terminals with capacity of 295km3. These

are potentially strategically attractive assets (particularly terminals in NSW, VIC, SA, QLD and

China), however we note that the portfolio is only partially owned with the remaining terminals held

via long term leases (although the exact split is unknown). Over the last 7 years transactions

for bulk liquids terminals been struck at ~US$500 per m3. If we apply this to GNC’s bulk

terminals portfolio, this implies a value of US$150m (A$208m). We believe this is

adequately captured within our $706m average valuation ($776m mid-cycle valuation).


3 November 2015 11

Interim results 1H/14a 2H/14a 1H/15e 2H/15e Profit & Loss 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E

Revenue 2055.5 2038.6 1975.1 2038.7 Revenue $m 4461.8 4094.1 4013.8 3785.6 -8% -2% -6% EBITDA $m 166.1 127.2 136.1 98.7 EBITDA $m 395.4 293.3 234.8 268.3 Depreciation $m 53.5 43.1 58.9 59.6 Depreciation $m 94.5 96.6 118.6 123.1 Amortisation of goodwill $m

7.9 22.0 7.6 7.8 Amortisation of intangibles $m 24.3 29.9 15.4 15.4

EBIT $m 104.7 62.1 69.6 31.2 EBIT $m 276.6 166.8 100.8 129.8 Net Interest expense $m 20.1 20.0 21.8 19.1 Net interest expense $m 38.8 40.1 40.9 52.5 Pre-Tax Profit $m 84.6 42.1 47.8 12.1 Pre-Tax Profit $m 237.8 126.7 59.9 77.2 Tax Expense $m 23.4 8.8 13.1 2.3 Tax Expense $m 63.3 32.2 15.4 23.2 Net Profit $m 61.2 33.3 34.7 9.8 Net Profit $m 174.5 94.5 44.5 54.1 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Abn/Extra $m -11.2 -33.0 -4.5 -7.9 Net Abnormals/Extra. $m -33.6 -44.2 -12.4 0.0 0.1 Reported Earnings $m 50.0 0.3 30.2 1.9 Reported Earnings $m 140.9 50.3 32.1 54.1 Adjusted Earnings $m 61.2 33.3 34.7 9.8 Adjusted Earnings $m 174.5 94.5 44.5 54.1 Gross Cashflow $m 114.0 93.1 116.8 77.3 Gross Cashflow $m 273.3 207.1 194.1 192.5 EPS (Adj/dil) c 26.8 14.6 15.2 4.3 EPS (adj/diluted) c 76.3 41.4 19.5 23.7 EPS growth % -43.7 -49.5 -43.3 -70.6 EPS growth % -25.8 -45.7 -52.9 21.5 CFPS c 50.0 40.8 51.2 33.9 PE (adj) x 11.1 20.5 43.5 35.8 CFPS Growth % -33.5 -48.5 2.5 -17.0 CFPS c 119.8 90.8 85.0 84.4 EBITDA/Sales % 8.1 6.2 6.9 4.8 CFPS Growth % -13.5 -24.3 -6.3 0.0 EBIT/Sales % 5.1 3.0 3.5 1.5 PGCFPS x 7.1 9.3 10.0 10.1 Earnings Split % 64.8 35.2 78.0 22.0 DPS c 45.0 20.0 9.6 14.2 Revenue Growth % 52.4 42.8 -3.9 0.0 Yield % 5.3 2.4 1.1 1.7 EBIT Growth %

-23.6 -53.7 -33.5 -49.7 Franking %

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Profit and Loss ratios 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E Cashflow Analysis 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E

Revenue Growth % 34% -8% -2% -6% EBIT Growth % -14.3 -39.7 -39.5 0.3 Pre-tax Profit $m 237.8 126.7 59.9 77.2

EBITDA/Sales % 8.9 7.2 5.8 7.1 Depreciation & Amortisation $m 118.8 126.5 134.0 138.5

EBIT/Sales % 6.2 4.1 2.5 3.4 Tax Paid $m -83.3 -46.1 0.2 -23.2 Effective tax rate % 26.6 25.4 25.8 30.0 Gross cashflow $m 273.3 207.1 194.1 192.5

Payout ratio % 59.0 48.3 49.3 60.0 Changes in working capital $m 17.6 -86.3 -51.3 43.4

EV/EBIT x 10.5 17.6 29.1 23.6 Other $m -68.0 50.3 -38.6 -54.9 EV/EBITDA x 7.3 10.0 12.5 11.4 Operating Cashflow $m 222.9 171.1 104.2 181.0

EV/Sales x 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Acquisitions $m -353.5 -34.6 0.0 0.0 Capex - Plant & Equip. $m -141.4 -141.2 -235.0 -247.5 Balance sheet ratios Asset Sales $m 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 ROE % 10.6 5.4 2.5 3.1 Other $m 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 ROA % 10.2 5.5 3.2 4.0 Investing cashflow $m -493.9 -174.8 -235.0 -247.5 ROFE % 13.2 6.9 4.0 0.0 Dividend (ordinary) $m -137.0 -80.1 -21.9 -32.4 Net Debt $m 577.9 747.0 829.7 928.7 Equity raised $m 50.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Debt/Equity %

32.9

42.8

47.3

52.3 Other $m -0.3 0.0 70.0 0.0 Interest Cover x 7.1 4.2 2.5 2.5 Financing cashflow $m -86.7 -80.1 48.1 -32.4 Price/NTA x 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 NTA per share $ 5.46 5.34 5.57 5.73 Net Change in FCF/debt $m -357.7 -83.8 -82.7 -98.9 EFPOWA m 228.1 228.2 228.2 228.2

Historical performance 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Balance Sheet 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E Revenue $m 1989.7 2776.8 3329.4 4461.8 Cash $m 255.0 206.2 156.2 106.2 EBITDA $m 212.2 349.6 413.9 395.4 Receivables $m 426.4 404.3 461.6 435.3 Depreciation/Amortisation $m 71.5 78.5 91.1 118.8 Inventories $m 535.1 576.2 564.9 532.8 EBIT $m 140.7 271.1 322.8 276.6 Investments $m 151.5 161.5 161.5 161.5

Net interest expense $m 20.7 25.6 31.3 38.8 Property, plant & equipment $m 1182.3 1216.6 1333.0 1457.5

Pre-Tax Profit $m 120.0 245.5 291.5 237.8 Intangibles $m 512.6 525.0 484.1 468.7 Tax Expense $m 39.1 73.9 86.6 63.3 Other Assets $m 107.4 243.4 244.9 244.9 Net Profit $m 80.9 171.6 204.9 174.5 Total Assets $m 3170.3 3333.2 3406.2 3406.9 Net Abn/Extra $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 -33.6 Payables $m 356.2 287.1 311.4 248.6 Short Term Debt $m 237.9 352.5 352.5 252.5 EPS (adj/dil) c 43.1 86.5 102.8 76.3 Long Term Debt $m 595.0 600.7 633.4 782.4 EPS growth % -51.5 100.9 18.8 -25.8 Other Liabilities $m 222.5 348.4 354.2 347.1 Ordinary DPS c 30.0 55.0 65.0 45.0 Total Liabilities $m 1411.6 1588.7 1651.6 1630.6 EBITDA/Sales % 10.7 12.6 12.4 8.9 Shareholders Funds $m 1758.7 1744.5 1754.7 1776.3 EBIT/Sales % 7.1 9.8 9.7 6.2 Minority Interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE % 8.2 12.9 14.1 10.6 Total Shareholders Equity $m 1758.7 1744.5 1754.7 1776.3 ROFE % 12.5 16.8 18.1 13.2 EFPOWA m 187.8 198.3 198.3 228.1 Total Funds employed $m 3,170.3 3,333.2 3,406.2 3,406.9

Division estimates 2013A 2014A 2013A 2014A Sales Storage & Logistics 655.3 443.8 410.5 356.2 Marketing 2169.3 1907.1 1849.1 1668.8 Malt 976.6 1049.4 1054.1 1054.1 Oils 937.2 955.9 975.1 Other 660.6 693.8 -255.9 -268.7 Total sales 4461.8 4094.1 4013.8 3785.6 EBITDA Storage & Logistics 179.3 71.8 38.7 46.4 Marketing 54.3 36.4 -2.0 5.0 Malt 101.2 125.0 131.8 137.0 Oils 75.3 73.1 79.5 93.1 Allied Mills 11.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 Other -26.4 -22.6 -23.1 -23.5 Total EBITDA 395.4 293.3 234.8 268.3

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2015


3 November 2015 12

Macquarie Quant View

The quant model currently holds a marginally negative view on GrainCorp.

The strongest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to

have a superior and more stable underlying earnings stream. The weakest

style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has weak historic and/or

forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line items.

Displays where the company’s

ranked based on the

fundamental consensus Price

Target and Macquarie’s

Quantitative Alpha model.

Two rankings: Local market

(Australia & NZ) and Global

sector (Food Beverage &

Tobacco)

358/486 Global rank in

Food Beverage & Tobacco

% of BUY recommendations 25% (2/8)

Number of Price Target downgrades 1

Number of Price Target upgrades 0

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model

A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score

(higher is better).

For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their

contribution to the current overall Alpha score.

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return

The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions

signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction

revisions. Current score shown below.

Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes

in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.

What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model

Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s

returns over the last 5 years.

A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is

better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.

Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])

Fu

nd

am

en

tals

Quant

Local market rank Global sector rank

Attractive

-1.1

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.7

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Metcash

GrainCorp

Asaleo Care

Coca-Cola Amatil

Woolworths

Treasury Wine Estates

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Metcash

GrainCorp

Asaleo Care

Coca-Cola Amatil

Woolworths


Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings

Momentum

Price

Momentum

Quality

-1.8

-0.6

0.3

-0.2

-0.1

1.4

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Metcash

GrainCorp

Asaleo Care

Coca-Cola Amatil

Woolworths


-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Metcash

GrainCorp

Asaleo Care

Coca-Cola Amatil

Woolworths


Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return

-29%

-17%

-17%

-14%

31%

33%

33%

37%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒

3M Price Target Revisions…

Profit Margin Last Actual…

Operating Margin FY0

Momentum 3 Month

Price to Cash FY1

Price to Book FY1

Price to Book LTM

Price to Book FY0

0 1

Technicals & TradingRisk

LiquidityCapital & Funding

QualityPrice Momentum

Earnings MomentumProfitability

Growth

ValuationAlpha Model Score

0.40 0.01

-1.09 0.14

0.13-0.15

0.06-0.57-0.61

-0.32-0.36

0 1

Normalized

Score

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to sector(/486)

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to market(/395)


3 November 2015 13

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 September 2015

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 48.87% 59.96% 35.63% 42.13% 59.44% 42.11% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.54% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 33.44% 25.00% 39.08% 52.55% 37.06% 38.42% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 17.68% 15.04% 25.29% 5.32% 3.50% 19.47% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

GNC AU vs ASX 100, & rec history

(all figures in AUD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2015

12-month target price methodology

GNC AU: A$6.93 based on a Average of FY14 SoP and Through-the-cycle valuation methodology

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 14-May-2015 GNC AU Underperform A$6.72 27-Feb-2015 GNC AU Underperform A$6.70 10-Dec-2014 GNC AU Underperform A$7.30 13-Nov-2014 GNC AU Underperform A$7.45 15-May-2014 GNC AU Underperform A$7.75 25-Feb-2014 GNC AU Underperform A$7.61 11-Feb-2014 GNC AU Underperform A$7.80 29-Nov-2013 GNC AU Underperform A$8.71 02-May-2013 GNC AU Underperform A$13.20

Target price risk disclosures: GNC AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities.


3 November 2015 14

General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL No. 238947) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Equities Limited (ABN 41 002 574 923, AFSL No. 237504) ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited (“MENZ”) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth’s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) (“MBL”) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, apart from MBL, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary’s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group‘s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

Documents

GrainCorp - MacquarieMacquarie Wealth Management GrainCorp 3 November 2015 3 Our FY16 forecasts 80% Fig 4 GNC EBITDA by segment (A$m) Fig 5 Segment EBITDA % · 2015-11-3