GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT - Kementerian … · 2016-12-29 · ORI: “Obligasi Ritel Indonesia” or Indonesian Retail Bond Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn) 2016 R-Budget

DIRECTORATE OF GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES

DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF BUDGET FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT

MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

MANAGEMENT

DECEMBER 28, 2016

OUTLINE

2

1. Government Securities Financing Strategy 2016

2. Government Securities Performance

3. Government Securities Financing Strategy 2017

4. Crisis Management Protocol & Bond Stabilization

Framework

5. Debt Outstanding & Risk Profile

DISCLAIMER: This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Republic in any jurisdiction or as an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is not and should not be construed as financial, legal, tax, investment or other product advice.

Directorate of Government Debt Securities| Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management| Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia


FINANCING STRATEGY 2016


FINANCING TREND, 2005 – 2016

(trillion IDR)

Notes: *Budget Realization 2015 **Revised Budget 2016

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016**

Gov't Securities (Net) 22.6 36.0 57.2 85.9 99.5 91.1 119.9 159.7 224.7 264.6 362.3 364.9

Domestic Loan (Net) - - - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 3.4

Foreign Loan (Net) (10.3) (26.6) (26.6) (18.4) (12.4) (4.6) (17.8) (23.5) (5.8) (12.4) 10.4 2.5

Others/Non Debt (Net) (1.2) 20.0 9.1 16.6 25.5 4.6 28.3 38.1 18.1 (4.3) (55.2) (69.0)

Budget Deficit, % of GDP 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.35

0.5

0.9

1.3

0.1

1.6

0.7

1.1

1.8

2.3 2.3

2.5

2.35

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-80

-30

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

4


GENERAL DEBT FINANCING STRATEGY

FOR 2016

DEBT POLICY IN 2016 BUDGET

1. Manageable Debt-to-GDP

ratio 2. Financial inclusion &

market deepening

3. Debt issuance for productive

activity 4. Selective

external loan (infrastructure

and energy sector)

5. Loan as an alternative instrument

for financing

6. Active debt

management and ALM

5


GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2016

Revised Budget Macro Assumptions

• Economic Growth: 5.2% • Inflation: 4.0% • Exchange Rate:

Rp13,500/USD • 3-Month Govt. Treasury Bills:

5.5% • ICP: USD40/barrel • Oil Lifting: 820 thousand

barrels/day • Gas Lifting: 1,150 thousand

barrels of oil equivalent per day

6

Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2

I. Domestic Revenue 1,820.5 1,784.2

1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2

2. Non-Taxation 273.8 245.1

II. Grant 2.0 2.0

B. Government Spending 2,095.7 2,082.9

I. Central Government Spending 1,325.6 1,306.7

1. Ministerial Spending 784.1 767.8

2. Non-Ministerial Spending 541.4 538.9

II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 770.2 776.2

C. Primary Balance (88.2) (105.5)

D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)

Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)

E. Financing 273.2 296.7

I. Domestic 272.8 299.2

a. Banks 5.5 25.4

b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9

• Government Securities 327.2 364.9

• Capital Injection 65.2

II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)

Description Budget (Baseline) Revised BudgetA. Total Revenue 1,822.5 1,786.2


1. Taxation 1,546.7 1,539.2


II. Grant 2.0 2.0







D. Budget Deficit over GDP (%) (273.2) (296.7)

Deficit to GDP (2.15%) (2.35%)

E. Financing 273.2 296.7

I. Domestic 272.8 299.2

a. Banks 5.5 25.4

b. Non-Banks 267.3 273.9

• Government Securities 327.2 364.9

• Capital Injection 65.2

II. Foreign (Net) 0.4 (2.5)

D. Budget Deficit over GDP (273.2) (296.7)


Deficit to GDP (%) (2.15%) (2.35%)


GOVERNMENT SECURITIES – INDICATIVE FINANCING

PLAN FOR 2016 (BUDGET DEFICIT 2.7%)

International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated)

Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market and provide benchmark for corporate issuance, consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds;

Maximum issuance international bond 25% from target gross.

Government Debt Securities (SUN): 72 %; Sukuk : 28% ATM for Government Securities (SBN): 9-11 years.

Domestic Issuance

Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target

Weekly Auction: Conventional Securities: 23 x Islamic Securities: 23x

Non-Auction: Retail bonds: SR (Q1), SBR (Q2), Sukuk Tabungan (Q3),

and ORI (Q4) Private Placements: Based on request

Series Coupon Maturity

FR0053 8,250% July 15, 2021

FR0056 8,375% September 15, 2026

FR0073 8,750% May 15, 2031

FR0072 8,250% May 15, 2036

Benchmark Series 2016

1. SBR: “Saving Bond Ritel” or Retail Savings Bond 2. Sukuk Tabungan means Sukuk Savings Bond 3. ORI: “Obligasi Ritel Indonesia” or Indonesian Retail Bond

Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn)

2016 R-Budget

Government Securities (Net) 407,886

Redemption 215,026

Cash Management 27,874

Buyback 3,000

Gov’t Securities Conversion 573

Government Securities (Gross) 654,358

Composition

Domestic 78%

Auction 63%

Non-Auction 15%

International Bond 22%

7


(In Million IDR)

2016 SECURITIES FINANCING REALIZATION

Revised Budget

2016

Widening Budget

Deficit 2.7%

Realization

(a.o. December 27,

2016)

% Realization to

Revised Budget

2016

Government Securities Net 364,866,887 407,885,535 407,885,535 100.00%

Government Securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 246,535,735 243,972,550 243,972,550 100.00%

Issuance Need for 2016** 611,402,622 651,858,086 651,853,809 100.00%

Government Debt Securities (GDS) 471,955,157

Domestic GDS 362,916,437

-Coupon GDS 251,370,000

-Conventional T-Bills 56,040,000

-Private Placement* 31,895,977

-Retail Bonds 23,610,460

International Bonds 109,038,720

-USD GMTN 48,643,000

-Euro GMTN 44,975,610

-Samurai Bonds 12,760,910

-Domestic USD Bonds 2,659,200

Government Islamic Debt Securities 179,898,652

Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 146,491,152

- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk) 108,356,030

- Retail Sukuk 34,085,122

- Private Placement 4,050,000

Global Sukuk 33,407,500

*Including the issuance of Government Securities Conversion

- Issuance Government Securities Conversion 572,581

- Matured Government Securities Conversion 360,814

Nett Issuance Government Securities Conversion 211,767


PERFORMANCE


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

500%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 6-Dec-16

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS) % Foreign Incoming Bids (RHS)

10

as of Dec.6, 2016

Average awarded bids

2016 = Rp13.37T/auction

Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp20.84T while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp10.59T

Average incoming bids


GDS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016

10

THROUGH AUCTION


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

500%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 6-Dec-16

Incoming Bids Awarded Bids % Bid to Cover Ratio (RHS)

11

as of Dec. 6, 2016

Average Incoming Bid


Average Awarded bids


GS PRIMARY MARKET PERFORMANCE 2016

Average Incoming Bid 2015 = Rp14.05T, while Average Awarded Bid 2015 = Rp6.75T

11

THROUGH AUCTION


4.39 5.88 5.73 5.31 7.91 9.38 11.21 8.97 10.51 11.58 8.97

0.22 0.16 0.38 0.25

0.76 0.72

0.18 0.75

1.46 0.64

0.63

0.34

1.54 3.07 6.46

8.80

10.15

22.70

11.44 9.29

12.69

12.89

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 s.d 27Des-16

OUTRIGHT REPO BANK REPO BI

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

Spread (bid-ask)

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Dec'1

0

Mar'1

1

Jun'1

1

Sep'1

1

Dec'1

1

Mar'1

2

Jun'1

2

Sep'1

2

Dec'1

2

Mar'1

3

Jun'1

3

Sep'1

3

Dec'1

3

Mar'1

4

Jun'1

4

Sep'1

4

Dec'1

4

Mar'1

5

Jun'1

5

Sep'1

5

Dec'1

5

Mar'1

6

Jun'1

6

Sep'1

6

Dec'1

6

5Y 10Y 15Y 20Y

7.47 (5Y), 7.87 (10Y), 8.04 (15Y), 8.07 (20Y)

5.12

7.04

5.15

14.12 12.88

10.75 10.4511.40

-

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

15.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

As of Dec. 27, 2016

[In Percentage]

Average Daily Trading Yields of Benchmark Series

Bid Ask Spread 10 Y Government Bond Turn Over 10 Y Government Bond

SECONDARY MARKET PERFORMANCE

Spread 7.878 bps

Ask 7.839 Bid 7.918

As of Dec. 27, 2016

12

As of Dec. 27, 2016


• Market Watch as of Dec. 28, 2016

• Source: Asian Bonds Online

YIELD GOVT BONDS ON PEER’S MARKET

Source: IDMA, Bloomberg, as of Dec. 28, 2016

LCY 10 Year

Government

Bonds

Latest Yield YTD Change (BP) MTD

Change (BP)

HK 2. 137 +55.8 +73.5

ID 7.914 -83.1 -22.3

JP 0.064 -20.1 +3.9

KR 2.122 +3.7 -2.8

MY 4.231 +4.5 -17.4

PH 4.733 +63.3 +21.4

SG 2.391 -20.7 +9.2

TH 2.844 +34.4 +15.6

US 2.560 +29.0 +17.9

VN 6.375 -80.0 +14.5

13

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y

28 Dec '16 21 Dec '16 28 Nov '16 9 Feb '12

23 Sep '11 27 Oct '08 13 Sep'05

[in percentage]


OWNERSHIP OF TRADABLE DOMESTIC

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (in trillion IDR)

1) Non Resident consists of Private Bank, Fund/Asset Manager, Securities Company, Insurance Company, and Pension Fund.

2) Others such as Securities Company, Corporation, and Foundation.

*) Including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia.

**) net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.

14

Description

Banks* 375.55 31.04% 350.07 23.95% 361.54 21.95% 436.50 24.65% 408.32 23.03%

Govt Institutions (Bank Indonesia**) 41.63 3.44% 148.91 10.19% 150.13 9.12% 104.51 5.90% 126.27 7.12%

Bank Indonesia (gross) 149.07 9.05% 157.85 8.91% 157.88 8.90%

GS used for Monetary Operation -1.05 -0.06% 53.33 3.01% 31.61 1.78%

Non-Banks 792.78 65.52% 962.86 65.87% 1135.18 68.93% 1229.94 69.45% 1238.69 69.85%

Mutual Funds 45.79 3.78% 61.60 4.21% 76.44 4.64% 82.96 4.68% 85.29 4.81%

Insurance Company 150.60 12.45% 171.62 11.74% 214.47 13.02% 237.52 13.41% 238.23 13.43%

Foreign Holders 461.35 38.13% 558.52 38.21% 643.99 39.10% 656.06 37.05% 665.41 37.52%

Foreign Govt's&Central Banks 103.42 8.55% 110.32 7.55% 118.53 7.20% 118.38 6.68% 120.83 6.81%

Pension Fund 43.30 3.58% 49.83 3.41% 64.67 3.93% 85.80 4.84% 87.15 4.91%

Individual 30.41 2.51% 42.53 2.91% 48.90 2.97% 62.57 3.53% 57.89 3.26%

Others 60.51 5.00% 78.50 5.37% 86.72 5.27% 105.02 5.93% 104.73 5.91%

Total 1,209.96 100% 1,461.85 100% 1,646.85 100% 1,770.95 100% 1,773.28 100%

Jun-16Dec-15Dec-14 27-Dec-16Nov-16


50.94

18.87

16.38

18.66

5.03

21.91

15.80

34.27

7.75

21.36

65.90

35.98

20.05

26.26

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Banks*

Bank Indonesia**

Mutual Fund

Insurance Company

Pension Fund

Individual

Others

INV

ES

TO

R T

YP

E

NET BUY NOVEMBER YTD 2016 NET BUY NOVEMBER YTD 2015

15

LOCAL INSURANCE AND PENSION FUND INCREASED

THEIR GOVT SECURITIES PORTFOLIO SIGNIFICANTLY

[In trillion IDR]

15

*) Net, excluding Government Securities used in monetary operation with Banks.

**) Gross, including the Government Securities used in monetary operation with Bank Indonesia.


FSA (OJK) Regulation No 1/POJK.05/2016* on Investment in Government Securities for Non-Bank Financial Institution

Life Insurance Company

Min. 20% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2016).

Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2017).

General Insurance, Reinsurance & Guarantee

Company


31 2016).


31 2017).

Employer Pension Fund


31 2016)

Min 30% of total investment ( by Dec.

31 2017).

BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (The Social Security

Administration Body for Employment)

Min. 50% of total investment of

Employment Social Security Fund (by Dec. 31 2016).

Min. 30% of total portfolio investment

of BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (by

Dec. 31 2016)

BPJS Kesehatan (Healthcare Social Security Agency)

Min. 30% of total investment of BPJS Kesehatan (by Dec.

31 2016).

DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

16

*Since November 14, 2016 this regulation is revised to be FSA (OJK) Regulation No.36/POJK.05/2016 . The revised regulation has added SOE infrastructure bonds as instrument other than Gov’t Securities that can be utilized to fulfill the minimum investment requirement.


FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITY

Monthly Net Buyer (Seller) - Non Resident Foreign Ownership - Proportion by Tenor

[In IDR Trillion]

FOREIGN INVESTORS MOSTLY DOMINATED BY HIGH QUALITY LONG TERM INVESTORS

As of Dec.27, 2016

17

5.20% 4.65% 3.23% 3.04% 3.54% 2.69% 0.86% 1.28%

5.41% 3.73%1.28% 1.55% 1.82% 2.62%

2.19% 2.14%

12.88% 15.23%

11.82% 11.89% 10.78% 11.13% 17.94% 18.15%

32.04% 33.58%

38.98% 38.36% 36.92% 35.85%

39.47% 39.23%

44.46% 42.81% 44.68% 45.16% 46.95% 47.72%

39.55% 39.20%

32.54%

38.13% 38.21% 38.94% 38.85% 39.10%37.05% 37.52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 27-Dec-16

0-1 ≥1-2 ≥2-5 ≥5-10 ≥10 %Foreign Ownership of Total

(0.37)

4.82

16.49 15.77 16.10

20.15

6.43

14.67 15.95

13.17 12.49

21.34

(19.84)

39.48

6.84

(3.59)

4.10 6.31

23.04

(3.90)

(7.96)

(2.30)

5.39

8.38

21.37 19.80

9.46

18.30 20.09

(4.21)

22.03

15.04

9.06

16.89

(9.35)

(19.58)

9.35

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

(30.00)

(20.00)

(10.00)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

De

c-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Oct-1

4

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-1

5

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Oct-1

6

De

c-1

6

Capital Inflows [LHS] capital inflows over foreign [RHS]


FINANCING STRATEGY 2017


Macro Assumptions for 2017 Government Budget

• Economic Growth: 5.1% • Inflation: 4.0% • Exchange Rate: Rp13,300/USD • 3-Month Govt. Treasury Bills:

5.3% • ICP: USD45/barrel • Oil Lifting: 815 thousand

barrels/day • Gas Lifting: 1,150 thousand

barrels of oil equivalent per day

Description 2016 R-Budget 2017 A. Total Revenue 1,786.2 1,750.3


1. Taxation 1,539.2 1,498.9


II. Grant 2.0 1.4






1. Transfer to Region 729.3 706.4

2. Village Fund 47.0 60.0



Deficit to GDP (%) (2.35%) (2.41%)

E. Financing (I + II + III + IV + V) 296.7 330.2

I. Debt Financing 371.6 384.7

• Government Securities (net) 364.9 400.0

II. Investment Financing (94.0) (47.5)

III. Lending 0.5 (6.4)

IV. Guarantee Liability (0.7) (0.9)

V. Other Financing 19.3 0.3

GOVERNMENT BUDGET FOR 2017

19


Debt (Gross)

IDR735.6tn

Redemption

IDR350.9tn

Budget Financing

IDR330.2tn

Non-Debt Financing

IDR54.5tn

Breakdown of Budget Financing IDRtn US$bn

Government debt (net) 384.69 28.36

Government securities (net) 399.99 29.49

Issuance 684.84 50.49

Redemption & cash management (281.84) (20.78)

Debt portfolio management (3.00) (0.22)

Domestic loans (net) 1.49 0.11

Withdrawal 2.50 0.19

Redemption (1.01) (0.07)

Foreign loans (net) (16.79) (1.24)

Withdrawal 48.29 3.56

Redemption (65.08) (4.80)

BUDGET FINANCING BREAKDOWN IN 2017

US$/IDR: 13,563 as of 30 Nov. 2016

20


GOVERNMENT SECURITIES – INDICATIVE FINANCING

PLAN FOR 2017

International Bonds Issuance (USD, EUR, JPY-denominated)

Issuance of International Bonds as complement to avoid crowding out in domestic market consists of USD, YEN or EURO global bonds;

International bond issuance can be maximized up to 25% from gross target, depends on financing need.

Government Debt Securities (SUN): 71 %; Sukuk : 29% ATM for Government Securities (SBN): 7-9 years.

Domestic Issuance

Issuance targets for GDS, Sukuk and ATM target

Weekly Auction: Conventional Securities: 24x Islamic Securities: 24x

Non-Auction: Retail bonds Private Placements: Based on request

Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn)

2017 Budget

Government Securities (Net) 399,993

Redemption 162,842

Cash Management 119,000

Buyback 3,000

Government Securities (Gross) 684,835

Composition

Domestic 83%

Auction 93%

Non-Auction 7%

International Bond 17%

21

Pre-funding to optimize cost ahead of potential Fed rate hike Anticipate developments in global environment Government Securities target for 1st semester 2017 is 59.3%

from gross issuance target; Government Securities target in Rupiah for 1st semester 2017 is

45.7% from gross issuance target.

Front loading issuance for budget financing


Issuer Republic of Indonesia

Issuer Ratings Baa3 Moody’s (Stab) / BB+ S&P (Pos) / BBB- Fitch (Stab)

Exp. Issue Ratings Baa3 (Moody’s) / BBB- (Fitch)

Format 144A / RegS

Issue USD fixed rate, Senior unsecured notes, off USD50bn GMTN Program

Aggregate Size USD3.5 bn

5-year Notes 10-year Notes 30-year Notes

Maturity 8 January 2022 8 January 2027 8 January 2047

Tranche Size USD750mn USD1,250mn USD1,500mn

Coupon 3.700% p.a. 4.350% p.a. 5.250% p.a.

Reoffer Yield / Price 3.750% p.a. / 99.767 4.400% p.a. / 99.592 5.300% p.a. / 99.246

Spread to Treasury UST5 + 184 bp UST10 + 194 bp Old UST30 + 216 bp

Listing, Law Singapore / Frankfurt SX; New York Law

JBR / JLM BofAML, Citigroup, HSBC, Standard Chartered

Co-Managers Bahana Securities, Danareksa Sekuritas, Mandiri Sekuritas, Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia

GLOBAL BOND (PREFUNDING)

Summary Terms of Offering

REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA – USD3.5 BN NOTES DUE 2022, 2027 & 2047

CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL &

BOND STABILIZATION FRAMEWORK


Pre-emptive Measures

Implementing Crisis Management Protocol

(CMP)

Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework

(BSF)

Enhancing coordination between government

institutions and continuous dialogue with market

participants

Specific policies in place to address crises

enacted in 2016 budget law

Swap facility arrangements based on international cooperation

Crisis Management Protocol

Indicators to determine crisis level of

Government Securities Market condition (normal,

aware, alert, crisis)

Several market indicators that are monitored

daily:

- Yield of benchmark series;

- Exchange rate;

- Jakarta Composite Index;

- Foreign ownership in government securities

Policies to address the crisis at every level :

- Repurchase the government securities at

secondary market

- Postpone or stop the issuance

First Line of Defense

State’s Budget

Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing

and Risk Management

Investment fund at Public Service Agency

(BLU) (min. level Aware)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Aware)

Social Security

Organizing Agency

(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Aware)

Second Line of Defense

State’s Budget

State General Treasury Account

(Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert)

Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min.

Level Crisis)

State Owned Enterprises

(BUMN)’s Budget Related BUMNs (min. level Alert)

Social Security

Organizing Agency

(BPJS)’s Budget BPJS (min. level Alert)

Bond Stabilization Framework

IMPLEMENT MEASURES TO MANAGE EXTERNAL VOLATILITY …TO MITIGATE SUDDEN REVERSALS

24

DEBT OUTSTANDING

&

RISK PROFILE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Domestic Foreign

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Loan Gov't Sec

TOTAL DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS OF END OF NOVEMBER, 2016

26

42%

58%

Domestic Foreign

Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)

79%

21%

Gov't Sec Loan

Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR)


Notes: *) Not included accrued interest IDR 35.21 Trillion

OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

BY INSTRUMENT

27

Nominal %

a. Foreign Loan (in billion USD) 68.6 68.4 63.6 58.4 54.2 54.4 54.5 21.2%

Bilateral 42.3 42.1 37.2 31.5 26.9 24.7 24.1 9.4%

Multilateral 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.5 26.1 27.0 10.5%

Commercial 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.4 1.3%

Suppliers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

b Domestic Loan (in billion USD) 0.0 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1%

c. Government Securities (in billion USD) 118.4 131.0 140.8 136.3 155.2 174.7 202.1 78.6%

Foreign Currency Denominated 18.0 21.6 27.4 32.8 36.7 47.8 53.7 20.9%

Rupiah Denominated 100.4 109.4 113.4 103.5 118.5 126.9 148.4 57.7%

Total Central Government Debt

(in billion USD)187.0 199.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 257.0

Total Central Government Debt

(in trilion IDR)1,681.7 1,808.9 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,485.4

Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) 8,991.0 9,068.0 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,563.0

GDP (in trillion IDR) 6,864.1 7,831.7 9,524.7 10,542.7 11,540.8

Debt to GDP Ratio 24.5% 23.1% 23.0% 24.9% 24.7% 27.4%

2010Description

Nov. 16*)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

204.5

1,977.7

9,670.0

8,615.7


OUTSTANDING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT

BY CURRENCY

Notes: *) Preliminary Figures **) Not included accrued interest IDR 35.21 Trillion

28

Description 2011 2015*)

Original Currency

IDR (in trillion) 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 2,017.2

Gov't Securities 992.0 1,096.2 1,261.7 1,474.6 1,751.1 2,012.1

Loan 1.0 1.8 2.2 3.2 4.1 5.1

USD (in billion) 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 76.2

Gov't Securities 20.4 25.6 31.3 34.2 43.2 45.0

Loan 23.5 24.2 25.4 26.8 30.1 31.2

JPY (in billion) 2,589.8 2,498.8 2,395.3 2,223.1 2,143.4 2,088.8

Gov't Securities 95.0 155.0 155.0 155.0 255.0 355.0

Loan 2,494.8 2,343.8 2,228.8 2,068.1 1,888.4 1,733.8

EUR (in billion) 5.0 4.5 4.2 5.1 6.2 9.0

Gov't Securities - - - 1.0 2.3 5.3

Loan 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7

Other currencies

Equivalent in Billion USD

IDR 109.5 113.5 103.7 118.8 127.2 148.8 57.9%

USD 43.9 49.8 56.8 61.0 73.3 76.2 29.6%

JPY 33.4 29.1 22.8 18.6 17.8 18.6 7.2%

EUR 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.7 9.5 3.7%

Other currencies 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.4 3.9 1.5%

Total Eq. in Billion USD 199.5 204.5 194.9 209.7 229.4 257.0

Equivalent in Trillion IDR

IDR 993.0 1,098.0 1,263.9 1,477.8 1,755.2 2,006.1

USD 397.9 481.9 692.0 758.6 1,009.2 993.2

JPY 302.5 281.2 278.3 231.8 245.5 260.6

EUR 58.5 57.5 71.1 77.7 92.4 127.8

Other currencies 57.1 59.1 70.2 62.9 62.9 52.0

Total Eq. in Trillion IDR 1,808.9 1,977.7 2,375.5 2,608.8 3,165.1 3,439.8

Foreign Currency Portion 45.1% 44.5% 46.8% 43.4% 44.5% 41.7%

Exchange Rate Assumption USD/IDR 9,068 9,670 12,189.0 12,440.0 13,795.0 13,563.0

2013 2014 Nov. 16**)2012

----------------Multiple Currencies -----------------------


10

.7%

10

.3%

10

.5%

11

.6%

12

.6%

10

.6%

9.9

%

9.9

%

11

.1%

13

.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditures

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS

Debt to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Revenue and

Expenditure Ratio

Debt Service to GDP Ratio Interest Payment to Tax Revenue &

Central Government Expenditure Ratio

Notes: Using GDP at Current Market Prices [2010 Version]

24.5% 23.1% 23.0%

24.9% 24.7%

27.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7.7

%

7.5

%

7.9

%

8.6

%

10

.3%

7.2

%

6.7

%

6.8

%

7.5

%

8.6

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

to Revenue to Expenditure

2.9% 3.2%

2.9%

3.5% 3.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

29


18.8 16.2 16.0 14.8 13.7

12.2

25.9

22.5 23.2 21.0 20.7

17.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-2016*

Variable Rate Ratio Refixing Rate

10.4 10.2 11.7 10.7 12.2 11.6

45.1 44.4 46.7

43.4 44.5 42.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-2016*

FX Debt to GDP Ratio* FX Debt to Total Debt Ratio

8.2 7.2 8.6 7.7 8.4 6.6

22.7 21.5 21.8 20.1 21.4 22.7

34.6 32.4 33.4 33.9 34.7

36.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-2016*

In < 1 year In < 3 year In < 5 year

9.32

9.70

9.60

9.73

9.40

9.15

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.8

10.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nov-16*

Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk

Average Time to Maturity Debt Maturing

RISK INDICATORS

*) Using GDP assumption in R-Budget 2016

-Risk indicators are improving amidst pressure from rupiah depreciation

-Risk indicators show improvements in interest rate risk and stability in exchange and refinancing risks

Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia

Directorate of Government Debt Securities

Frans Seda building, 4th Floor Jl. Wahidin Raya No. 1, Jakarta Pusat – Postal Code: 10710

Phone: +6221 3810175 Fax. : +6221 3846516

Website: www.djppr.kemenkeu.go.id

END OF PRESENTATION

Documents

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT - Kementerian … · 2016-12-29 · ORI: “Obligasi Ritel Indonesia” or Indonesian Retail Bond Instruments Indicative Target (IDR tn) 2016 R-Budget