Governance, Pease and Security in Africa: The Imperative of both Social Cohesion and Statistics on Social Cohesion First Meeting of the Governance, Peace

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  • Governance, Pease and Security in Africa: The Imperative of both Social Cohesion and Statistics on Social CohesionFirst Meeting of the Governance, Peace and Security Statistics: Harmonisation of GP&SSFranois NdengweAfrican Advisory BoardT: +33(0)6 1339 0107 amepya2@gmail.comNairobi Kenya, 23 25 May 2012Organized by African Union Commission

  • CONTENTSINTRODUCTION: The Definition Problem

    Costs of Social UnCohesion for AfricansDemographic HeterogeneityMeasuring Social Cohesion in Africa

    CONCLUSION: Sciences in Public Policy

  • INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem Why Definition Matters

    What is GOVERNANCE

    Oxford English Dictionary From old French Gouvernance The action or manner of governing Controlling, directing, or regulating influence; control, sway, mastery The manner in which something is governed or regulated; method of management, system of regulations Discreet or virtuous behaviour; wise self-command

    African Union, 6th Summit of the Nepad Heads of State & Government Implementation Committee 9 March 2003 Abuja, Nigeria, Paragraph 1.8 To facilitate the measuring of performance and progress, this document identifies the following components in each of the four substantive areas of the Declaration: Democracy and political Governance Economic Governance and Management Corporate Governance Socio-Economic Development + Environmental Governance (added later)

  • INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem What is SOCIAL COHESION ?There is no single accepted definition of social cohesion (Perspectives onGlobal Development 2012 SOCIAL COHESION IN A SHIFTING WORLD, OECD, Nov 2011)

    Proposed Definitions of Social Cohesion Oxford English DictionaryCohesion: From French Cohsion The action or fact of forming a united whole The action or condition of cohering; cleaving or sticking together;spec.the force with which the molecules of a body or substance cleave together

    Club de Madrid (2009)Socially cohesive or shared societies are stable, safe and just, and are based on the promotion and protection of all human rights, as well as on non-discrimination,tolerance, respect for diversity, equality of opportunity, solidarity, security andparticipation of all people, including disadvantaged and vulnerable groups and persons.

    OECD Definition : The triangle Social Mobility Social Inclusion Social Capital

  • AAB proposed definition: The SQUARESocial Cohesion is the feeling of togetherness based on trust, shared values, progress in harmony, defense vis--vis common threatsTRUSTDEFENSESh. VALUESP in HINTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem

  • I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for Africans Africans SOCIAL UNCOHESION:

    One cause of slavery aggression success in Africa

    A facilitator of slavery in slavery days - In Africa (Jean-Charles Sismonde de Sismondi (1773 1842), De lIntrt de la France lgard de la traite des ngres) The New World (Compulsory loss of language, ethnicity, culture, humanity)

    An Allied of Europeans in the Berlinisation of Africa - Berlin Conference, 14 European Countries, Nov 1884 Feb 1885

    A permanent tool of the colonial aggressors in colonialist days

    A spike in the hands of Apartheid theorists and practionners

    A flame to set on Africans-on-Africans massacres Franois Mitterand, Mmoires Interrompues, Paris, Odile Jacob (on Charles De Gaulle and his followers manipulating one group of Africans to kill other Africans) A spur on dispossession of Africans through Washington Consensuss privatization and structural adjustments plans

  • I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for AfricansNo SOCIAL COHESION, No PEACE

    No SOCIAL COHESION, No SECURITY

    No SOCIAL COHESION, No GOVERNANCE

    No SOCIAL COHESION, WARS, even GENOCIDE

    No SOCIAL COHESION, No ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    No SOCIAL COHESION, No HUMAN PROGRESS

  • II.- Demographic Heterogeneity: Most Singular Trait (Threat) of African Societies Why African Demographic Heterogeneity (ADH) Matters

    ADH: What Origin ? Why ? Whats Africas specificity? What does ADH tells about Africans?

    Statistics as a Science to Measure ADH

    Unfortunately, No African Stats Institution measures it or gives it the importance it deserves Nature abhorring vacuum, trickeries, lies, instinctive drive, take the place of enlightened debate and tolerance

    Consequence: Social Un-Cohesion (Distrust, No shared value, No progress, no harmony, no defense vis--vis external aggression) Tribalism (Africa: the Continent of Tribalism!) Injustice (Distrust of the Judicial System) Antipatriotism, Permanent insecurity, Wars, Genocide (Rwanda), State breakdown (Sudan/South Sudan, Mali, and whos next?) Africa: The only one defenseless continent in the world

  • Two measures of Africas high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity1/ ETHNICITY Africa has 3,315 ethnic groups, while

    China has 56 ethnic groups, of which the Han ethnic group alone makes up 90% (Africa is 60 times more heterogeneous than China)

    USA has 6 ethnic groups(Africa is 553 times more heterogeneous than USA)

    India, Brazil, Russia, Europe,

    The World has 5,000 ethnic groups (Africa: 64% of world ethnic groups and only 14% of world population)Ethnic: Pertaining to nations not Christian or Jewish; Gentile, heathen, pagan * Relating to a population subgroup (within a larger or dominant national or cultural group) with a common national or cultural tradition * Pertaining to or having common racial, cultural, religious, or linguistic characteristics (Oxford English Dictionary)Sources: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009; Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World,Scientific American Magazine, September 1998; http://www.numberof.net/number-of-ethnicities-in-the-world/ ; http://www.ethnologue.com

  • Two measures of Africas high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity1/ ETHNICITY Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World, in Scientific American Magazine,September 1998

    Many of the worlds problems stem from the fact that it has 5,000 ethnic groups but only 190 countries.

    This situation is illustrated on the map, which shows that few states are ethnically homogeneous and that many, particularly in Africa, have no majority ethnic group.

    Since 1945 some 15 million people have been killed in conflicts involving ethnic violence, although ethnic tensions have not necessarily been the catalyst.

    Among the worst incidents were the 1994 civil war in Rwanda, which resulted in more than a million dead and three million refugees,

    and the 1947 communal riots in India, which left several hundred thousand dead and 12 million refugees

    Post election Violence in Kenya, 2007-2008

  • Two measures of Africas high and unparallel Demographic Heterogeneity2/ LANGUAGEGreenberg Linguistic Diversity Index : A measure of the probability that 2 randomly chosen persons in a country have different mother tongue (2005 edition of Ethnologue)DI, Linguistic Diversity Index of the country

    Pi, percentage of the total population which comprises the ith language group of the country

    n, number of the countrys indigenous languages The highest possible value 1 indicates total diversity (i.e. no two persons have the same mother tongue)

    The lowest possible value 0 indicates no diversity at all (i.e. everyone has the same mother tongue).

  • NIL, Number of Indigenous Languages%WL, Percentage of World Language (Total of WL is 6912)DI, Linguistic Diversity IndexSource: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009

    countryNIL% WLDIALGERIA180.260.313EGYPT110.160.509LIBYA90.130.362MOROCCO90.130.466TUNISIA60.090.012

  • countryNIL% WLDIANGOLA410.590.785BENIN540.780.901BURKINA680.980.773CAMEROON2794.040.947CAR6910.96CHAD1321.920.95CONGO620.900.82DR CONGO2143.100.948C. IVOIRE781.130.917ERITHREA120.170.749ETHIOPIA841.220.843GABON410.590.919GAMBIA90.130.748GHANA791.140.805GUINEA390.490.748GUINEA B210.300.853

    countryNIL% WLDIKENYA610.880.901LIBERIA300.430.912MALI500.720.876MOZAMBIQ430.620.929NAMIBIA280.410.808NIGERIA5107.380.648SENEGAL360.520.772SOUTH A240.350.869TANZANIA1271.840.965TOGO390.560.897UGANDA430.620.928ZAMBIA410.590.855KENYA610.880.901

    RWANDA30.040.004SOMALIA130.190.179

  • countryNIL% WLDIINDIA41560.93PAKISTAN721.040?762CHINA2353.40.491INDONESIA73510.630.846JAPAN150.220.028KOREA20.030.003MALAYSIA1402.030.758THAILAND741.070.753VIETNAM1021.480.234BELGIUM90.130.734France290.420.272GERMANY270.390.189RUSSIA1011.460.283SWEDEN150.220.167TURKEY340.490.289UK120?170.139

    countryNIL% WLDICANADA851.230.549USA1622.340.353BRAZIL1882.720.032AUSTRALIA2313.340.126PAPUA N GU82011.860.972VANUATU1091.580.972

  • III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job Lord KELVIN (William Thomson) (1824 1907)

    To measure is to know () If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.

    I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind;

    it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely in your thoughts advanced to the state ofScience, whatever the matter may be."[PLA, vol. 1, "Electrical Units of Measurement", 1883-05-03]

    Statistics a Science to Enhance Social Cohesion in Africa

  • III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job MEASURING THE SQUARE TRUST SHARE VALUES PROGRESS IN HARMONY DEFENSE VIS--VIS COMMON THREATS

    Are African National Statistics Institutions equip for this measurement?

    UNFORTUNATELY