Why Cars Won't Exist in the Next 50 Years

Goodbye, Fine Automobiles

Roman Loya

Abraham Lincoln Middle School

Goodbye, Fine Automobiles 2

Introduction

In biology, all livings things evolve including humans. As humans, we need to evolve our

technologies so that the things we use can keep up with our abilities. Upgrading, updating, and

improving our materialistic lives has an environmental impact as well. So as our planet continues

to get older, we need to take proper care of it because it’s also our responsibility to ensure that

our future posterity can maintain a healthy and safe life, but unfortunately that means we need to

cut back on a few of our luxuries – like cars. In 2000, the entire world produced about 41 million

automobiles. In 2014, that number more than doubled at a tad more than 87 million cars. So

that's quite a lot of machinery being made, but that doesn't necessarily mean we buy them.

Although we do. In the United States, there are less families that own no cars than own four or

more. So driving and cars are clearly important and not going away for a very, very long time.

But here's why they are.

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Goodbye, Fine Automobiles

In the Beginning

In the beginning, man discovered the elements and other life. Two very different things

existing for two very different reasons. Naturally occurring minerals and organic compounds are

here on planet Earth to aid living organisms as they provide energy, protection, habitats, hunting

grounds, materials, and so on. They can also provide destruction, extinction, inhabitability,

natural disasters, and annihilation to all life as we know it. So it's important that we strike a

balance between the machines and their byproducts and our lives and health. Now when it comes

to automobiles, we have a little problem.

Why It Grew

Today, modern technologically advanced devices can connect to each other almost

instantaneously from all around the world which means that people with the same interests can

share and combine their findings and abilities to evolve that particular interest. Using that

evolution, they now have the ability to help evolve others interests. So, we can help others help

us to help others. That and the combination of new, easily obtainable technology is why these

interests boomed rapidly in the past 15 years. It happened in the 80’s and now it's happening

again. But one interest has been with us for 130 years by 2016. It was so popular they made

sports out of it, created special versions, developed hobbies, and started a huge business just for

them as well. They're called cars and were designed specifically to get you from one place to

another faster than a horse can. Thankfully, that's changed and instead they offer more means

than just transportation. Cars like the Rolls Royce Ghost are made to introduce comfort and those

like the Lamborghini Sesto Elemento are here for pure power-to-weight performance and zero

comfort. There are those like the Toyota Camry for the simple, the Prius for ‘tree-huggers’, and

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even the occasional priceless artifact like the Ferrari 250 GTO that are actual long term

investments.

How It Grew

So there's no questioning why cars are a popular topic amongst millions worldwide. Now

we can question and address how: Social media. Cars have grown so much that every summer

since 2005, a well-known period begins in which supercars from all around the world escape

their garages and terrorize the streets of cities. This is known as the Supercar Season and we can

thank it for starting it all. Social media exists to share media (hence the words social media) and

that’s exactly what it did. Many people saw the potential in this Supercar Season and they made

their move: Instagram now has thousands of accounts just for car spotting and car photography.

YouTube exploded in the amount of car channels dedicated to providing car news and events.

Car celebrities, like Shmee150 have over 700 thousand subscribers on YouTube and 5 million

likes on his Facebook page. An entire social media network has been made just for car

enthusiasts called Car Throttle where users can post their newly acquired cars, ‘car spottings’,

and even car jokes. One thing that isn't a joke, though, is the massive amount of people

dedicating their lives to these cars. At it's highest, the popular UK show Top Gear has an average

of 5.4 million views per season in the UK alone. People make a living by investing in cars,

photographing them, filming them, and most importantly: making them.

A Better You

This is where things start to become controversial. As mentioned earlier, cars were meant

to be a method of transportation but have evolved into something greater. The reason the car

evolved is because we evolved.

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An Extension of the Human Body

Henry Ford once said, “Auto racing began 5 minutes after the second car was built.”

Immediately we took cars on as something else. As an art, a passion or hobby, a way to blow of

steam and show skill, a sport, an extension of us. To explain, we will examine a person (me) all

by myself, and also with probably the most balanced and perfect car ever made – the Lexus LFA.

Me vs. the LFA

For starters, I am not athletic at all. Sure I can run faster than some of my friends but that

alone is the entire range of my athletic abilities. Although, you know what can enhance my

ability to go faster? The LFA can with a 0-100 km/h time of 3.7 seconds and a top speed of 325

km/h. Faster than all but three road-going Ferraris ever made from a car created in late 2010 that

also took ten years to develop. Oh and did I mention two of those Ferraris are over $2 million a

piece and at least three years newer?

Another thing I simply can't do is sing. I'm alright on the saxophone I guess, and I've

never really heard myself playing the violin. But let me tell you, the LFA can sing. It's fitted with

a Formula One® inspired N/A V10 that revs to 9,000 RPM. Toyota gave the job of the exhaust

system to the music department of Yamaha. Just to prove that I'm not crazy, what else is an

extension of the human body that can make music? A musical instrument maybe. So don't tell

me that the sound of the LFA isn't music and the Selfie Song still is.

To further bash myself, I can't dance. An oversteer-y RWD, 550 HP, Bridgestone Potenza

setup says the LFA can. And it does that very well, too, as Lexus demonstrated in a drifting

video montage. No seriously, Lexus got a handful of professional drivers, and choreographed a

dance using cars from their F Sport lineup. They actually made machines move better than most

modern dances. You have to at least think it's more original than the dab.

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Something else I lack are good looks. For the fourth time, the LFA wins again because

wow it's gorgeous. Just take a look:

So at this point I'm no longer limited to what I was given at birth, instead I can improve

myself by being extended into areas I could never be. Once I'm sat in the LFA, I can be more

than just me. This is why true car enthusiasts will always prefer a manual rather than an

automatic or semi-automated gearbox. This is why they turn traction control off. This is why

they love N/A engines. This is why they hate ABS, ESP, sensors all over the car, power steering,

and electric parking brakes. If you have all these electronic assistants, the car is no longer a part

of you. It's just a well thought-out tool used to get you somewhere faster. At this point we as

human beings (and I use that term loosely) have devolved with the car because we just took it

back to its first reason for existence. There's no fun in it anymore. Now imagine taking away the

heart of the car, it's engine, there is no soul in that and you can't connect to the car either. Unless

you1 have no soul. But when you take driving away all together things get really, really, bad.

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The Problem

Global warming is a topic most of us are familiar with. But what most don't understand is

that the Goldilocks Principle is far more than just ‘Earth is a perfect distance away from the Sun

so it can sustain life.’ The fact that Earth is at a certain distance away to absorb the right amount

of sunlight is not the only factor to explain why we have the right amount of heat. If we had an

atmosphere like that of Mars, there would be no blanket to absorb heat and no way to prevent it

from escaping into space for it’s far too thin. If we had an atmosphere similar to Venus, there

would be too much heat trapped and the surface of Earth would be upwards of 400 degrees

Celsius. The way this happens is that gases in the earth’s atmosphere are creating what is known

as The Greenhouse Effect. Gases called greenhouse gases act like glass walls in a greenhouse.

Light and energy come in and can't escape. The list of the greatest contributing greenhouse gases

include carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).

When the Sun emits light onto the earth, 7% is invisible light, like ultraviolet, with wave lengths

shorter than the 43% of visible light and 50% is invisible light with wavelengths larger than

visible light such as infrared or greater. Part of Earth’s atmosphere can absorb invisible light

before it reaches the surface, while the atmosphere is clear as far as visible light.

The surface of Earth absorbs invisible light and is converted into heat. The heat is re-

radiated into invisible light and spread into the entire atmosphere and surface. If we just take a

look at the Goldilocks Principle alone, then all the re-radiated heat would escape into space. To

explain what would happen if that were true, take a look at Mercury. Mercury has the thinnest

atmosphere of all the planets in our solar system. That means there is nothing to keep the heat

from leaving when night comes around which is why the temperature on the surface of Mercury

during nighttime is -170 degrees Celsius.

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Thankfully we don't live on Mercury, so we have those handy greenhouse molecules to

keep the heat close to the surface of Earth. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs the re-radiated

heat. This vibrates the molecule and sends it out again to be absorbed by another carbon dioxide

molecule to be sent out again. This is what keeps the heat from being sent into space.

You might think this is a good thing, right? Well of course it is but that's because this isn't

the actual problem. The problem is that we have too much greenhouse gas in our small

atmosphere. In fact it's so small, that even though carbon dioxide is at 400 mg/L it still is enough

to increase the earth’s temperature since 1880 by .8 degrees Celsius. Two-thirds of that has

happened since 1975, rising at .15-.20 degrees per decade. That's very fast and we need to find a

way to stop the warming of Earth if we ever want that balance of machines and health to be

restored.

How Can We Stop It?

Clearly we need to run machines that are more efficient and produce far less gas. A way

we can do that is by using all-electric cars.

In 1996, General Motors released the first mass-produced electric vehicle dubbed the GM

EV1. It had a range of around 100-160 kilometers using lead-acid batteries and was created

initially because the California Air Resources Board (which hilariously is CARB, as in carbon)

made the sale of a zero-emission car mandatory in California by major car manufacturers. The

EV1 was only obtainable from a lease for “real-world engineering evaluation” and to test the

new market of electric cars.

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Those that did receive one of the 1,117 models were in love and the car is regarded as on

of the best driving experiences one can have. It was simple, useable, and well – good looking(?)

Eventually GM cancelled the project and terminated the leases of all EV1 drivers because

the service costs were far too expensive and they were not making enough profit. The last ones

that weren't the 40 or so pardoned units for universities, were crushed in 2003.

2003, the year that the electric car got its revenge: Tesla Motor Company. A brave

attempt to recreate the production electric car. Three years later in 2006, the Tesla Roadster was

unveiled. Like the EV1, the Roadster was a small coupe. Unlike the EV1, It could break the

speed limit in 3.9 seconds and travel for 390 kilometers on a single charge. The um, price was

quite large, thought, as $110,00 was the asking price for the base model. That's a lot of money

for a car made by a company that was completely unheard of. It sold out quickly, however, and

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all 2,450 examples were sold. Those that did not make a deposit were not fans of the Roadster

for it was heavily criticized and hated by many. The company lost millions making the car but

eventually started making a profit in 2013. And a year before that, Tesla released the Model S, a

full-size luxury sedan that was also electric. The Model S became the best-selling plug-in electric

car in several areas and time periods. Tesla then became respectable for their zero-emissions

cause and decreasing the costs to produce their cars making a well-built electric car available for

the masses. The potential to make a decent electric powered car was there and they took it. Now

that electric cars are becoming more popular, the planet is no longer going to have any problems

with global warming. Except electric cars aren't helping at all. Not a tiny bit.

Are Cars Really the Issue Here?

Nope. Not at all. To answer why, I need you to think of the game telephone. In the game,

one person comes up with a phrase or sentence and whispers it to another only once. That person

tells the next person what they heard only once as well. When the last person is spoken to the

phrase has almost completely changed because every time it was passed, the receiver can

mistaken the phrase for something else and repeat that to the next one. The point is, people hear

what they want to hear and when information is exchanged it will be altered. So some group of

people that were told global warming is being caused by transportation and agriculture (which

will be established that there contribution is nearly identical), are going to completely forget that

cars aren't the only way things get around, and tell the next group of people that cars and farming

are causing global warming. Then the next group is going to say that cars are killing us. That's

called misinterpretation. Because of it, everyone in the world thinks that electric cars are going to

save the planet and petrol powered cars are dooming us all. But because we're humans (again,

not really), very few of us can see that so companies started to react to the fact that normal cars

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have damned us (that was sarcasm). Just to give one last example, while I was researching about

how lightning helps the nitrogen cycle, I stumbled upon a website with the title: ‘Does the

Nitrogen in Lightning Turn Grass Green?’ I don't even know where to start. Lightning doesn't

have the nitrogen in it and that's not what makes grass green, in fact there's an entire different

topic as to why grass is green.

Why Cars Aren't the Issue

Since carbon dioxide is responsible for being 72% of greenhouse gases, it gets picked on

the most while nitrous oxide goes unnoticed making up 9% and methane making double that

with 18%. Everything else falls under the remaining 1%. Most of these gases come from making

electricity and factories, then comes transportation. In case that's not clear enough, here's a graph

showing how much of what comes from where.

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What's surprising is that agricultural byproducts are almost as severe as transportation.

62% of nitrous oxide comes from agriculture and 40% of methane comes from it as well. This

makes sense because of the nitrogen cycle. Basically when an animal dies, it puts nitrogen into

the ground which provides nutrients for plants and trees. Those plants and trees are eaten by

animals and put nitrogen into their body until the animal dies, when the cycle starts again. These

animals are typically farm animals which is what puts agriculture into the contribution of nitrous

oxide productions. The more that U.S. consumers want McDonalds, the more cows are breed to

die and continue the cycle. A theory says that lightning helps make nitrates (NO3), by breaking

nitrogen particles apart using intense energy and allowing them to bond with oxygen. Another

suggests that methane is largely produced by cows passing gas is a major contribution to global

warming. Well you can't argue considering that 40% figure (again, sarcasm).

Since electric cars are electric, something has to generate that electricity. That's where

electric cars fail. This chart illustrates the sources for electricity every five years since 1980 in

the entire world.

Year Coal Gas Hydroelectric Nuclear Oil Others

1980 37% 10% 24% 10% 18% 1%

1985 39% 9% 23% 17% 11% 1%

1990 38% 11% 21% 18% 10% 2%

1995 37% 15% 19% 17% 9% 2%

2000 38% 18% 18% 17% 8% 2%

2005 39% 20% 17% 15% 6% 3%

2010 39% 22% 17% 13% 4% 4%

20142 39% 22% 17% 11% 5% 7%

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Evaluating this chart, coal is the most used to generate electricity. It started unevenly

despite only having a maximum change of 2%, but became consistent by about 2000. Gas usage

doubled over the 34 years mainly because of the drop in usage of oil by nearly four times the

original amount. Hydroelectric methods have been dropping consistently while nuclear power

has been going down after the massive incline from 1980 to 1985. Other ways of generating

electricity are becoming more popular so we can hopefully have an alternative for coal when it

completely runs out.

Now if we take a look at the graph demonstrating greenhouse gas origins, the largest

contributors were power stations. Which make electricity. That powers electric cars. See the

problem? We think electric cars are part of the solution to stop global warming but our response

to the third largest cause to global warming is to make more of the first. And there is more than

just cars to use as transportation. In case you didn't know, there are these big objects that can go

into the sky and carry people with them and take them anywhere that has a runway. Yeah, they're

pretty useful when you need to go somewhere. There are also these really long connecting cart-

boxes that can store and move things along these two lines put next to each other. Another way

of getting around is this magic device that can float on water and do the same thing as all the

other things I've mentioned. These can all come in handy when you need to go somewhere.

The Solution(s)

The damage we've already done to this planet cannot be reversed so the only thing to

look forward to is reducing the damage that's being done now. That's also exactly what all the

misinterpreting people think and it backs up their theory of electric cars being the answer to

everything. What we should be looking at, is how to properly respond to the leading case.

Remember, the answer to the third leading cause is the first one. So if we can truly find a way to

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generate electricity efficiently with very little harmful emissions, then electric cars will be a

much greater solution for transportation (that's assuming other methods of transportation follow).

What we’re left with, is to find a way to do that. Thankfully the ‘Others’ section of generating

electricity is growing. In an ideal world, one of those methods in the ‘Others’ section will stand

out and become the new leading method of electricity generation. But what has the ability to do

exactly that?

Green Electricity

Certain techniques can make electricity and produce little to no emissions. These

methods use energy sources from nature to create green electricity, electricity that has a very

small environmental impact. Green electricity should be our first attack on global warming, so

here are producers of green electricity that might by the future leader of energy production:

Waste Incineration

Waste is a massive problem on its own, but when we start to burn it to generate

electricity, it isn't such a bad thing. The only problem with this is that instead of throwing away

resources we can be recycling them instead.

Geothermic Heat

The geothermic heat under the earth can have water pumped into it and create steam. The

steam rises and can turn turbines to generate electricity. In other places, steam rises naturally.

The heat coming from Earth can also be used to provide heat for buildings and homes instead of

burning coal or gas.

Hydroelectricity

The strong current in some rivers or any other bodies of water can turn turbines to make

electricity. This method has a minimal effect on the environment and can be easily managed.

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Waves and Tides

Water can be collected in large masses when tides are high and then released at low tide

to turn turbines. A huge advantage with this is that tides are easily predicted. Another method is

using special windmills underwater. Instead of using the wind to push blades, the currents can do

the same.

Biomass

Organic waste and intentionally grown plants and trees are sometimes burned to be used

as fuel for smaller power stations. The major draw back to this is that the carbon dioxide in the

organic material is released when burned but at least it is the same amount of gas that would

have been released otherwise. By drawing patterns, we can tell that the agricultural cause of

global warming would increase from that 12.5% in the graph seen earlier. This would also mean

that deforestation would be a larger problem. Other than that, this is also a huge opportunity for

farmers world-wide to produce these ‘energy crops’.

Methane Burning

Methane released from animals, land fills, natural occurrences, or any other origin of it

can be captured and ignited for fuel to power turbines in power stations. This produces lots of

carbon dioxide like burning biomass as well, but methane is a more harmful gas. The only reason

carbon dioxide is more responsible for global warming is because of the shear amount of it. So

it's better to burn methane and make carbon dioxide than let it go up into our atmosphere.

Wind

Winds that are blown all across the earth can be used to spin turbines in windmills.

Windmills can be placed in stratification locations to get the most out of the wind. Though still a

small amount of electricity is generated from this, it's one of the largest growing sources of

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electricity in the world. And windmills are being improved constantly to reduce noise and

increase efficiency. So much in fact, there are versions that are used under the ocean (as

previously mentioned) and soon most windmill fields will be located over the ocean instead of

one land. All these pros make wind-sourced electricity competitive with coal-sourced and

nuclear-sourced electricity.

Solar Energy

Solar light can be harvested using solar photovoltaic, or PV, modules that are efficient in

many different levels. They can convert sunlight into electricity directly using semi-conductor

tech. The semi-conductor silicon is made from recycled parts in computers. PB modules can be

designed into buildings and are almost impossible to tell the difference between normal tiles and

PV tiles on a rooftop.

So These are Possible Replacements for Traditional Electricity Generation, Now What?

Now we wait. Literally. That's all we can do for now, for the only reason we haven't been

using these from the start instead of previous less-efficient methods is because they were harder

to develop and when the easier ways to do it were already in use, there was no point in changing.

But that was before we realized the easier methods had severe consequences. Now we have no

option but to use these new concepts. Thankfully, these new techniques can evolve with the

human and become significantly more efficient and even more environmentally friendly. So

again, the only action we can take for reducing the impact of electricity production is to wait

until other methods die out so the new ones can replace them.

Does That Mean Electric Cars Will Now be Efficient Enough to Make a Difference?

Finally after addressing the first cause of greenhouse gas overdose, we can conclude that

yes, electric cars will make a difference. Unfortunately. About ten pages ago, you might have

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asked yourself, “What does cars being a part of you have anything to do with global warming?”

Well nothing, actually. If you also read the title of this article you might conclude that if I clearly

stated electric cars could be a solution to this life-threatening situation, why would it be the end

of cars? Because they're not real cars. Real cars are an extension, remember? Electric cars aren't

an extension of a person. In fact I'm no longer calling them cars, from now on they will be

referred to as electric road transportation units. Not cars. To demonstrate why electric road

transportation units aren't cars I will be comparing it to the LFA.

Electric Road Transportation Units vs. the Lexus LFA

In the same order again, I will compare the two by limits based on me: Athletics, sound,

dancing, and looks.

Performance

Realistically sports are for viewer entertainment so it really doesn't matter which car,

erm, electric road transportation unit or car, wins. In this case the electric road transportation unit

loses either way. Sure they generally get off the line quicker due to instant torque but they

become less efficient at higher speeds. But even if electric road transportation units were faster

the LFA, then it would lose even more because who would you want to see win, a $90,000 box

on wheels or the $400,000 supercar? If the so called box on wheels were to win, that wouldn't be

any good for the sport. What's more is the LFA was developed partially at the Nurburgring, so it

can definitely corner faster than a 2-ton piece of – um. Let's not go there.

Sound

Well this is the stupidest one to argue. I can't stress how good that V10 in the LFA

sounds. Where as the electric motors in an electric road transportation unit make the literal exact

same noise as a window rolling up in a car.

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Movement

This is a close one but I still have to go with the LFA. An electric road transportation unit

has the power of instant torque to help get its wheels spinning but when you try to carry that into

a corner, it can't deliver. There's no engine to help throw weight around to continue a drift and

the batteries are usually put in the middle which encourages twitchy body roll. The mid-engined

LFA says otherwise.

Aesthetics

Okay so this really comes down to personal preference (as if the others didn't either). But

really any car can help improve on what I look like, so.

Connection

Something that was only touched on slightly earlier, a connection to a car is the most

valuable thing one can ask for in a car. Whether it be emotionally, physically, or physiologically

a connection is all I want in a car. If you handed the keys to a $5 million LaFerrari and said it

was mine for free or the keys to a $30,000 Ford Taurus for free, I wouldn't hesitate to take the

Ford if I didn't have some sort of feeling for the LaFerrari (that and there's no way I could afford

the insurance on that thing). This is the reason real car enthusiasts will prefer a manual car over

automatic because then you are connected to the gearbox through your hand. Though modern

sports cars have semi-automated flappy paddle shifters, the LFA’s reposes to how fast you pull

the paddle and how much pressure too. So there still some sort of value to it. In an electric road

transportation unit there are no gears. No connection. This is just one example, there's still all the

other technologies and ways one can connect with a car I can talk about. So electric road

transportation units aren't proper cars. They're just for casual people who want to get somewhere

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faster than a horse. And that's fine. I'm perfectly okay with that. But don't you dare start to

implement that all cars should become electric road transportation units or autonomous.

One Last Thing

The moment you take away what cars were meant to be (driven), is the moment the

human race dies. We evolved the car to be something better along with us as we evolved, so

when we devolve the car it's the same story for us. Don't get rid of driving so we don't get rid of

something to drive the human race. If there is no choice, then you go ahead and be a sub-human

but real car enthusiasts won't give in.

Conclusion

In the end, if we strike at the right places first, electric road transportation units will be

part of the answer to stop the world from dying of heat. But before that happens let us have our

fun while we still can.

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References

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http://www.topgear.com/car-news/jeremy-clarkson/jeremy-lexus-lfa

Pattni, V. (2015, April 15). This Lexus Drift Vid is Hypnotic. Retrieved Spring, 2016, from

http://www.topgear.com/car-news/supercar/lexus-drift-vid-hypnotic

Motavalli, J. (2013, July 03). GM's EV1 Lives On, With EV2 on the Way. Retrieved Spring,

2016, from http://www.plugincars.com/gm-ev-1s-live-ready-ev-2-127656.html

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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/decadaltemp.php

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GREENHOUSE GASES. (n.d.). Retrieved Spring, 2016, from

http://www.solarnavigator.net/greenhouse_gases.htm

Glass, D. (2012, January 3). Lightning Helps Fertilize The Soil | A Moment of Science - Indiana

Public Media. Retrieved Spring, 2016, from

http://indianapublicmedia.org/amomentofscience/lightening-helps-fertilize-soil/

Toupet, S.Breakdown of Electricity Generation by Energy Source. (n.d.). Retrieved Spring,

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http://www.greenelectricity.org/what-is-green-electricity.php

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Footnotes

1Dylan Crites.

22015 was an unavailable year in reference, thus 2014 was a substitute.