Good Wind Well at Prairie, Il. Analysis for Dominion Ltd. USA

Good Wind Well at Prairie, Il.

Analysis for Dominion Ltd. USA

Iftach Spector, president - WindWells Ltd.

Wind-Well: high wind energy concentration @ the lower atmosphere, Stable in place & time, and economically reachable

Compared to

confidential, property of WindWells Ltd.2

WindWells: Physical ModelingWell-measured References - local energy dispersion coefficients ⇒ Library of ReferencesMatching Target / selected Reference/s ⇒ expected energy profileValidating profile by actual measurements

* 4-Dimentional, Physical Model based on Real Data* Enabling Vision ⇒ Local Optimization (@ every site)

The Current: Mathematical Extrapolation Point measurements at limited heights and time period Extrapolations to hub-height in Space and in Time

Note: average Speed ≠ average Flux, which is the main determinant, turbine cuts the extremes (mathematics can’t show this)

* Physically weak method* 2-Dimentional, point oriented ⇒ No Vision* Produces Systematically Uncompetitive Wind Farms

2 Different Methods to Evaluate Wind Power

Scope of WindWell’s Work for Dominion


Dec. 2011: Dominion suggests we analyze some areas they plan for wind farms: -1. Several lots on the Virginia Appalachians 2. East Virginia (hence: tobacco country) 3. North Carolina generally 4. South of Peoria, Illinois.

Jun. 2012: WindWells analyzed those areas at low spatial resolution (explain follows).

1. Appalachian Mountains No sufficient data to enable us to improve upon Dominion's locally based poles.

2. Eastern Tobacco Wind energy basically low. Performance improves to the East and closer to the beach. Going up improves performance @ hub heights above ~170m.

3. North Carolina Wind energy in NC's is basically low. In East NC wind energy is fair at low level. Meaningful economic improvement only at hub heights of ±200m.

4. Illinois: good wind well


Prairie Fork Wind Farm

http://www.power-technology.com/projects/prairieforkwindfarmi/Large wind power project that will be built on 25,000 acres in Christian and Montgomery counties in central Illinois, US. 25 miles south-east of SpringfieldThe plant will be owned and operated by Dominion Energy. It will have an installed capacity of 300MW by 150 to 200 wind turbines at 350ft (106m) high.

http://www.power-technology.com/projects/prairieforkwindfarmi/

Illinois


Building upon wind’s physical patterns (well-tempered)

over ref’s

Lo-Res Analysis for Springfield area


Lo-Res: Ref.’s by collected/purchased data banks (NASA, NOAA etc.) XY ~10-20Km. Z = 25-50m. t = ~average month & year

Hi-Res: adding local data (met stations, wind poles & validation measurements), + calculating turbine’s faceplate rather just hub heightResults depend on data’s quantity and qualityModel validation: measurements (LIDARS) to confirm/improve the model

Wind Power Determinants @ PF: model results150-unit farm, 2MW turbines 4-25m/sec on 100m. Towers. Cost of turbine: $2.5M

Turbine output Wind Flux Speed


Annual EnergyMWh/annum

7354

6700

5774

4799

2769

Power_FluxW/m^2796691488363163

Meanm/sec

Heightm.

8.66 250

8.12 200

7.32 150

6.62 100

5.14 50

$ Efficiency per height (m. AGL) @ PF, Calculated with a 3MW turbine. Turbine cost: $3.15M, installation cost by WWL’s cost model


Wind Energy @ PF: model results 150-unit farm on 100m. towers, 2MW turbines 4-25m/sec. Turbine estimated cost: $2.5M

Same PPA farm 1-Unit performanceRequired invest

M$Required #

Units1MW installed output

MWh/annum1MW installed costs (rounded)

M$Height AGL

m.590 (-52M$) 124 (26 less) 2887 (120%) 2.4 (112%) 150642 142 (8 less) 2643 (110%) 2.25 (104%) 125645 150 2400 (100%) 2.15 100


SummaryLo-Res Analysis

1-Unit financial performance 100/150m.(not considering US subsidies policy)

+$375M 30yr sales

$50M savings,Or -

Good wind well, at Reasonable Heights1. Optimal Z - height (best output/cost) is at ~ 150m.

(optimal XY has to be analyzed) 2. In this location, every meter up improves results.3. Note: at PF, turbines larger than 2MW improve the

economical results.

4. The 150m. Farm - • Besides reducing land area and public irritation • Saves ~$50+ million (8.5%) on project

investment/• Adds ~$0.375 billion (~23%) to farm’s 30yr sales• Shortens ROI by ~1yr. (~10%) • Reduces lifetime O&M expenses by ~17%

10 confidential, property of WindWells Ltd.

Wind Wells Advantages For wind farms developers and owners

Punch/DollarIncreased Output- Per turbine / Per acre

Improved Supply Continuity - Better grid compliance

Lower production cost - Lower Price / higher profit

Smaller investment, shorter payback period

New Wind Map - Many new, good locations

Better Environment - Fewer turbines, smaller footprint

Risks…?Regular Technologies - Regular turbines/mast tech.

Fits Any Turbine – No development / replacements

Wind Analysis – Vision & Optimization. Verifiable.


• In 2012 Dominion decided to concentrate upon LPG

• The plan to develop a 300MW wind farm PF was frozen.

• Dominion decided to continue paying the rent for PF,

• and authorized WWL to try and find a developer/investor for that farm.

WindWells


An Israeli startup

In the midst of a splendid breakthrough

Into the huge & growing market

of

economically competitive clean power

The only truly viable energy market


The TeamIftach Spector, PresidentPhD student, energy, Tel AvivUniversityBrig. General (Ret.), the Israeli Air Force VP Elbit Military Systems, President, Insper steel-framed buildings, President, ISYS Computerized Management Systems

Haimi Schneider, VP EngineeringArchitect, Architecture & Town Planning, The Technion, (1980) , Owner, H. Schneider Architects

Reuven Shenkar, Wind DataM.Sc. mechanical engineering DTU (Tech University, Denmark), B.Sc. aeronautical engineering (cum laude) , the Technion, Haifa. Previously Project Engineer Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Denmark.


Carrying the Wind of change..

WindWells, 7 HaYarkanim st. Ramot-HaShavim 45930 Israelwww.windwells.biz

[email protected]

http://www.windwells.biz/

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Good Wind Well at Prairie, Il. Analysis for Dominion Ltd. USA