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Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Page 1: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

Goldman Sachs

12th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum

May 19, 2004

Packaging Corporation of America

Paul T. SteckoChairman and CEO

Page 2: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.

Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.

Packaging Corporation of America

Page 3: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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PCA Stock Performance

5/14/04

PCAS&P 500

BigCharts.comL

Enterprise Value 2,704 2,995 11% Equity Value 1,270 2,300 81%Debt 1,434 695 (52%)

IPO Now Change($MM)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Page 4: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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PCA is a Major Producer of Containerboard

19%

16%

11%10%

9%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

SSCC WY IP GP TIN PCA

Source: Company Form 10-K filings and AF & PA 2003 Paper, Paperboard, Pulp Capacity Survey, North American market share adjusted for permanent and indefinite shutdowns as of May 14, 2004.

Market Share

Page 5: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper

Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone

Georgia-Pacific

96%

69%

55%

25%15%

10%

Pure Play in the Right Product

% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products

Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates

Page 6: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Saporcel PM2 Portugal 439,800

PT Indah Kiat PM3 Indonesia 427,300

PT Tiwi Kimia PM11 Indonesia 412,300

International Paper PM16 USA 410,600

Boise J-3 USA 392,700

Weyerhaeuser PM2 USA 385,600

UPM-Kymmene PM9 Finland 384,800

PT Riau Andalan PM1 Indonesia 384,800

Saporcel PM1 Portugal 363,200

Weyerhaeuser PM1 USA 357,000

Uncoated White

Company Machine Location Capacity

Worlds Largest Paper Machines

Page 7: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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APP China PM2 China 600,000APP China PM1 China 600,000Sappi PM11 Austria 560,000StoraEnso PM6 Finland 515,000UPM (Nordland) PM4 Germany 450,000UPM PM8 Finland 400,000StoraEnso PM7 Finland 360,000M-Real PM3 Finland 350,000Burgo PM1 Belgium 350,000International Paper PM41 USA 300,000

Coated Groundwood

Worlds Largest Paper Machines

Company Machine Location Capacity

Coated Free-Sheet

UPM PM4 Finland 400,000Burgo PM9 Italy 400,000UPM PM3 Germany 360,000UPM PM2 Finland 310,000StoraEnso PM5 France 305,000Bowater PM3 USA 300,000UPM PM1 Finland 300,000UPM PM6 Finland 300,000Sappi PM8 Belgium 285,000UPM PM1 United Kingdom 270,000

Page 8: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Linerboard

Worlds Largest Paper Machines

Company Machine Location Capacity

Corrugating Medium

Georgia-Pacific PM2 USA 712,200Weyerhaeuser PM1 USA 649,700International Paper PM1 USA 642,600International Paper PM1 USA 589,100Weyerhaeuser PM2 USA 571,200Papierfabrik Palm PM6 Germany 550,900Boise Cascade PM1 USA 544,400International Paper PM1 USA 526,600PCA PM1 USA 521,200Weyerhaeuser PM1 USA 517,700

International Paper PM2 USA 428,400Smurfit-Stone PM1 USA 419,500Cedar River Paper PM1 USA 392,700PT Indah Kiat PM2 Indonesia 385,700SAICA PM9 Spain 385,700Smurfit-Stone PM2 USA 383,800PCA PM4 USA 380,300Weyerhaeuser PM2 USA 369,500SAICA PM7 Spain 330,600PWA PM1 Germany 308,500

Page 9: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Containerboard Capacity Rationalization

Industry Capacity Removed(millions of tons)

Source: Industry Publications

Note: As of January 23, 2004

Page 10: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Historical Real Prices

Market Pulp Linerboard

Coated Free Sheet Coated Groundwood Uncoated Free Sheet

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Y = 14.962x + 30504

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Y = 39.081x +79055$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Y = 12.732x + 26464$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Y = 18.835x + 38478

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

'85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Y = 0.9642x + 2347.7

Source: Calculation based on Producer Price Index and Industry published prices (1985 – 2002)

Page 11: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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US Dollar Indexvs. World Basket of Currencies

120

110

100

90

80

‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ’00 ‘02 ‘04

Source: BankOne

Note: Basket includes Europe (58%), Japan (14%), Britain (12%), Canada (9%), Sweden (4%) and Switzerland (3%)

Page 12: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

Demand Inventory

Industry Supply and Demand Balance

Year over Year Change %

Sources: Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association

Containerboard Inventory (000 tons)

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

2003 2004

Page 13: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

Industry Containerboard Inventory

Sources: Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association

(000 tons)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Page 14: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Earnings and Free Cash Flow

$ $MM

Free Cash Flow(3)

$212

$183

$133 $132

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003

$1.25

$0.98

$0.45$0.40

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2000 2001 2002 2003

Earnings Per Share(1)

(1) 2000 earnings per share exclude a $36.4 million after-tax gain on the sale of timberlands, a $16.3 million after-tax charge related to the redemption of 12 3/8% senior preferred stock and a $11.1 million after-tax charge for early extinguishment of debt.

(2) 2003 earnings per share exclude a $10.0 million after-tax charge related to the settlement of several benefit cost related matters and the following after-tax charges incurred with PCA’s debt refinancing in the third quarter of 2003: cash tender offer premium ($34.1 million), write-off deferred financing fees ($10.6 million), other fees and expenses ($2.0 million). Including these one-time charges, net income for 2003 was a loss of $14.4 million or $0.14 per share.

(3) Free cash flow is used by PCA to inform investors of cash available for corporate use after capital expenditures. Free cash flow equals net cash provided by operating activities minus additions to plant property and equipment, commonly referred to as capital expenditures, and is calculated as follows:

2000 2001 2002 2003

Net cash provided by operating activities $ 341 $ 314 $ 240 $245Less: Additions to property, plant and equipment (129) (131) (107) (113)Free Cash Flow $ 212 $ 183 $ 133 $ 132

(2)

Page 15: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Mill2003 Production

(tons)% of

Production

LinerboardCounce, TN 963,000 43%Valdosta, GA 425,000 19%

Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 554,000 25%Filer City, MI 291,000 13%

Mill Manufacturing is Low Cost

* Counce

* Tomahawk

* Filer City

Valdosta *

• Operational excellence

• Located near excellent low cost fiber

• Fiber and energy flexibility

• Capital spending efficiency

• High integration level

Total System 2,233,000 100%

Page 16: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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$/Ton

Source: Industry publications

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

Recycled Fiber Prices HistoricallyHave Been Very Volatile

Page 17: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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100% 100%

54% 54%

37%33% 30%

22%17%

Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices

Wastepaper/Containerboard Ratio

Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates

Solvay Weyerhaeuser Temple-Inland Georgia-Pacific International Paper

Visy Norampac Smurfit-Stone PCA

Page 18: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Fuel Price Volatility

$/ million btu’s NYMEX Oil NYMEX Gas Contract Coal

Note: Excludes delivery costs which are estimated to be $0.74 per million btu’s for coal, $0.94 for natural gas and $0.50 for oil.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

Page 19: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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36%

4%

27%

33%

9%

16%

44%

31%

PCA’s Mill Purchased Fuel Mix is PrimarilyCoal and Bark - The Two Lowest Cost Fuels

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

2003 Actual2000 Actual

Page 20: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Corrugated Products

Differentiated Operating Strategy

• Stand-alone profit centers

• Value-added products

• 70% local accounts

• Over 8,000 customers

• Top 30 accounts represent

only about 30% of sales

Page 21: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Oxnard

Garland

Phoenix

Salt Lake City Windsor

NorthglennDenver

El Paso

Waco

Plano

Los Angeles

Omaha

Marshalltown

MinneapolisGolden Valley

South Gate

Muskogee

Tomahawk

Colby

Counce

Jackson

Orlando

Winter Haven

Jacksonville

OpelikaAtlanta

NewberryHonea Path

RutherfordtonMorganton

Knoxville

GoldsboroSalisbury

High Point

Roanoke

RichmondHarrisonburg

Baltimore

Northampton

Chelmsford

Watertown

Syracuse

Buffalo

Conrad

Milwaukee

Burlington

Vincennes

Gas City

Valdosta

AllentownTrexlertown

LancasterHanover

Filer CityEdmore

GrandvillePlymouth

AkronPittsburgh

Middletown NewarkAshland

Grafton

Arlington

Corrugated plants

Sheet/specialty plants

Mills

Headquarters

Facility Legend

Donna

Fairfield

Strong Geographic Manufacturing Presence

Franklin

Acorn

Page 22: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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-5

0

5

10

15

20

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

Ch

ang

eCorrugated Products Demand Growth

Source: FBA Data for Industry

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

PCA Industry

Page 23: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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6.7

4.54.2 4.2

3.43.1

0

2

4

6

8

Capital Expenditures as a Percent of Sales2000 Through 2003 Average

PCA Weyerhaeuser Temple International Georgia Smurfit Inland Paper Pacific Stone

Percent

Page 24: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Revolving Credit Facility - - - -

Receivables Revolving Credit Facility $ 109 $ 2 $ 109 $ 1

Term Loans 79 6 39 1

9.625% Senior Sub. Notes 550 53 - -

4.375% 5-Year Senior Notes (Eff. Rate – 3.92%) - - 149 6

5.75% 10-Year Senior Notes (Eff. Rate – 5.26%) - - 397 21

Amortization of Deferred Financing Fees - 3 - 1

Total $ 738 $ 64 $ 694 $ 30

Cash-On-Hand $ 131 $ 188

PCA Completed its Debt Refinancing on July 23, 2003

Annual Annual Debt Interest Debt Interest

Level Expense(1) Level Expense(1)

As of June 30, 2003 As of March 31, 2004

($ millions)

(1) Estimated

LOCK •

Page 25: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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$170

$118

$74 $68

$48

$30

0

40

80

120

160

Interest Expense Reduction

April 12, 1999 2000(1) 2001(1) 2002 2003 (2) 2004 (3)

Annualized Actual Actual Actual Actual Proj

(1) Excludes charges related to the early extinguishment of our debt of $18 million in 2000 and $1 million in 2001(2) 2003 actual excludes one-time charges associated with refinancing of $73 million.(3) 2004 projection is based on debt levels and interest rates on variable rate debt as of December 31, 2003

$ millions

Page 26: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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PCA(3) 2.9 PCA(3) 6.1 PCA 47.1%

S & P Moody’s

Existing CorporateCredit Rating

BBB Ba1

BBB Baa3

BB Ba2

BBB Baa2

BB+ Ba3

BBB Baa2

BBB Baa2

B+ N/A

Debt/ LTM EBITDA(2) Debt/ LTM EBITDA(2) / LTM Interest (2) Total Capital

Strong Credit Profile March 2004 Data(1)

Temple Inland 3.7

Georgia Pacific 4.2

Boise Cascade 4.3

Weyerhaeuser 4.5

MeadWestvaco 4.4

International Paper 5.1

Smurfit Stone 8.2

Boise Cascade 4.0

International Paper 3.9

Temple Inland 3.8

Weyerhaeuser 3.8

MeadWestvaco 3.5

Georgia Pacific 3.1

Smurfit Stone 1.7

MeadWestvaco 47.4%

Temple Inland 48.0%

Boise Cascade 51.0%

Weyerhaeuser 63.6%

International Paper 65.4%

Georgia Pacific 66.0%

Smurfit Stone 68.5%

(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the period April 1, 2003 through March 31, 2004 and both exclude unusual or nonrecurring items.

(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings to eliminate unusual or non-recurring items.

Boise Cascade ($45.2) Smurfit Stone 231.0Georgia Pacific 53.0 Temple Inland 152.0International Paper 281.0 Weyerhaeuser 27.0 MeadWestvaco (110.0)

No adjustments to exclude unusual or nonrecurring items were made to the above companies reported interest.

(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated as follows:

Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 65.8 Interest expense, net, as reported for the period $ 113.3Add back: Nonrecurring charges related to refinancing 3.3 Less: Nonrecurring charges related to refinancing (73.3)

Add back: Pactiv benefits settlement 16.0 Adjusted interest $ 40.0

Adjusted EBIT 85.1Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 157.4

Adjusted EBITDA $ 242.4

Source: Company SEC filings and press releases

Page 27: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence

• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth

- Acquisitions

• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility

Strategy

Page 28: Goldman Sachs 12 th Annual Cyclicals and Specialty Materials Forum May 19, 2004 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO