7/29/2019 GMU Uranium Mining Socioeconomic Study Executive Summary

1/5

ADDRESS PHONE WEB

3351FairfaxDrive|Arlington,VA|22201 (703)993-3186 cra.gmu.edu

September 14, 2012

Center for Regional Analysis, George Mason University

Coles Hill Uranium Report

7/29/2019 GMU Uranium Mining Socioeconomic Study Executive Summary

2/5

2

ExecutiveSummary

TheGMUCenterforRegionalAnalysishasconductedfourindependentresearchanalysesover

the past year examining the potential economic impact of constructing and operating the

proposedColesHill UraniumMineandProcessing Facilitiesin PittsylvaniaCounty. Thisfinal

reportcontainsthekeyfindingsofeachofthefouranalysesinseparatesections.

Abriefdescriptionandsummaryoffindingsfromeachanalysisispresentedbelow.

FiscalImpactonPittsylvaniaCounty

This section examines the revenue and expenditure impacts on Pittsylvania County of theproposeduraniummineandmill.

The analysis is based on the Countys FY2010 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. It

describes how the ColesHill operationwould have changed the totalrevenue collected and

expendituresmadeinPittsylvaniaCountyhadthemineandmillbeenfullyoperationalin2010.

TheprimaryfindingisthatinFY2010thefacilitywouldhavegeneratedanetfiscalbenefitof

$1.32millionforthecounty.

Therevenueswouldhaveaccountedfor2%ofthecountystotalrevenuebase,whilethe

additionaldemandforcounty-fundedserviceswouldhaveaccountedforonly0.25%ofthe

countystotaloutlaysinFY2010.

Thenetfiscalbenefitwouldhavebeenequivalenttoareductionof4centsonthecountys

realestatetaxinFY2010.

HousingAnalysisandUpdate

This sectionanalyzes trends and patterns in the DanvilleMSA housingmarket todetermine

howthelocalhousingmarketmightbeaffectedbytheproposeduraniummineandmill.

Multiple factors affect housing supply, demand and pricing. Accordingly, the Center forRegionalAnalysisexamineddemographic,employment, landuse,housing stock,permits,and

salesdata amongother figures tounderstand the dynamics in the regionshousingmarket.

Comparedtothesefactors,theproposeduraniumoperationwouldhaveaminoreffectonthe

housingmarket.

7/29/2019 GMU Uranium Mining Socioeconomic Study Executive Summary

3/5

3

Atthetimeofthestudy(November2011),thehousingmarketindicatorssuggestedtheregion

hadweakanddecliningdemandforhousing,accompaniedbysmallchangesinthesupplyof

housing(0.5%annualincrease2000-2010)andlowhomevaluescomparedtootherregionsinthestate.

However, in the update (July 2012), the housingmarket showed signs of strengthening, as

measuredbynumber ofsales, decreases in foreclosures, and number of residentialbuilding

permits.Therecoveryhasparalleledgainsinthelabormarketandexpansionofthebusiness

base.

TheinitialstudyfoundtheexistinghomesupplyintheDanvilleMSAismorethanadequateto

meetdemandfromemployeesworkingintheuraniummineandmill.

TheCenteralsoconductedasurveyof20realtorseachintheDanvilleMSAandacomparison

locationinTexasthathasexperiencewithuraniumoperationstoconsiderthepotentialimpact

oftheproposeduraniummineandmill.

ThesurveyfoundagenerallackofknowledgeabouttheColesHillmineamongRealtorsin

theDanvillemarket.

ThesurveyofKingsville,Texas,Realtorsfound85%believetheminehasabsolutelyno

effectonthehousingmarket.

EconomicEffectsofUraniumOperationsinSelectCommunities

Thissectionaddressesthewaysuraniumminingandmillinghaveaffectedtheeconomiesofa

setofcommunitiesintheUnitedStatesthathaveahistoryofuraniumoperations.

The Center selected four counties (San JuanCounty,UT;MontroseCounty, CO; Sweetwater

County,WY;andKarnesCounty,TX)thatprovideseveralperspectivesontheeconomicimpacts

ofuraniumoperations.Thesecountieshavedecades-longexperiencewithuraniumoperations

indifferentformsandstages.

The Center reviewed economic studies, economic impact analyses, demographic data, plusdescriptionsofuraniumoperationspastandpresent,andcompletedinterviewswith22 local,

regionalandstateeconomicdevelopmentprofessionalsandcommunityleaders.

Theprimaryfindingisthatthemajorityofrespondentsbelievetheuraniumoperationsare

positivefortheircommunityseconomy.

7/29/2019 GMU Uranium Mining Socioeconomic Study Executive Summary

4/5

4

The direct impacts especially the jobs created by themines andmills are themost

importanteconomicimpactsforthecommunities.

Uranium operations have neither hindered nor helped overall business attraction and

retentionefforts.

Thereisnoevidencethaturaniumoperationsdecreasetourismandoutdooractivities.

Themostcommonlycitedeconomicdownsideistheboom-and-bustnatureoftheuranium

business.

There is unanimous agreementthat strong regulation isnecessary toprotectcommunity

healthandenvironment.

ImpactontheBusinessClimateinPittsylvaniaCounty

This section examines recent economic data and builds on findings from the other three

analysestoaddresstheconsequencesofuraniumminingonthebroadereconomyandbusiness

baseinPittsylvaniaCounty.

The primary finding is that there is no current local evidence that Virginia Uranium, Inc.s

announcementthatitwouldseekapprovaltoconductminingandprocessingactivitiesatthe

ColesHillsitehasnegativelyimpactedPittsylvaniaCountyseconomy.

Business investment in Pittsylvania County has shown gains in recent years. Recent

successesinattractingnewbusinesstotheCountywouldsuggestthatitsreputationasa

goodplacetolocateanddobusinesshasnotbeenunderminedbythepresenceoftheColes

Hilluraniumdepositanditspotentialminingactivities.

Ourreviewof recentbusinesslocationdecisionsin theCounty confirmsthat operational

issues specific to each company drive site selection decisions, and that the Countys

competitiveness on factors such as community support,workforce, locationand market

access,incentives/investmentsandfacilityavailabilityhaveandwillcontinuetoaccountfor

thesesuccesses.

Thehousingmarkethasstabilizedandexperiencedanupwardtrendinsalesactivity.This

marketadjustmentwillaccelerateastheCountysjobbasegrows,includingtheadditionof

thenewconstructionjobsassociatedwithdevelopingtheColesHilluraniumfacilityandits

324post-construction,year-round,on-sitejobs.

Anticipated positive impacts include jobs created and local spending generated during the

constructionphase,directspendingwithlocalsupplierbusinesses,andlocalincomeeffectsof

personalearningsaccruingtomineandmillworkersresidinginPittsylvaniaCounty.Thescale

7/29/2019 GMU Uranium Mining Socioeconomic Study Executive Summary

5/5

5

andscopeoftheseeconomicimpactshavebeendocumentedinTheSocioeconomicImpactof

UraniumMiningandMillingintheChathamLaborShed,Virginia,preparedinNovember2011

fortheVirginiaCoalandEnergyCommissionbyChmura&Associates.

Conclusions

ThefiscalimpactanalysisoftheproposedmineandmillonPittsylvaniaCountyfounda

substantialnetfiscalbenefitfortheCounty.

The regional housingmarket analysis found that economic and demographic factors

have the greatest impact on housing sales and values with recent housing trends

showinggainsfromthe2008-09recession.Spendingfromtheuraniummineandmill

constructionandoperationwouldalsobeexpectedtoincreasedemandforhousingin

theCounty.

Theanalysisofhowuraniumoperationshaveaffectedtheeconomiesofothercounties

foundthaturaniumhashadapositiveeconomicimpactonthesecommunitieswithno

effectonbusinessattractionandretention.

The businessclimateanalysisconcluded that recent gains in the housingmarket and

multiplebusinessattractionsuccessesindicatethattheproposedmineandmilldonot

createastigmathatnegativelyimpactstheCountyseconomy.